Modeling the interannual variability and trends in gross and net primary productivity of tropical forests from 1982 to 1999

The role of tropical ecosystems in global carbon cycling is uncertain, at least partially due to an incomplete understanding of climatic forcings of carbon fluxes. To reduce this uncertainty, we simulated and analyzed 1982–1999 Amazonian, African, and Asian carbon fluxes using the Biome-BGC prognostic carbon cycle model driven by National Centers for Environmental Prediction reanalysis daily climate data. We first characterized the individual contribution of temperature, precipitation, radiation, and vapor pressure deficit to interannual variations in carbon fluxes and then calculated trends in gross primary productivity (GPP) and net primary productivity (NPP). In tropical ecosystems, variations in solar radiation and, to a lesser extent, temperature and precipitation, explained most interannual variation in GPP. On the other hand, temperature followed by solar radiation primarily determined variation in NPP. Tropical GPP gradually increased in response to increasing atmospheric CO₂. Confirming earlier studies, changes in solar radiation played a dominant role in CO₂ uptake over the Amazon relative to other tropical regions. Model results showed negligible impacts from variations and trends in precipitation or vapor pressure deficits on CO₂ uptake.     

Regional desertification: A global synthesis

The paper presents results on the use of NOAA AVHRR data for desertification monitoring on a regional–global level. It is based on processing of the GIMMS 8 km global NDVI data set. Time series of annually integrated and standardized annual NDVI anomalies were generated and compared with a corresponding rainfall data set (1981–2003).The regions studied include the Mediterranean basin, the Sahel from the Atlantic to the Red Sea, major parts of the drylands of Southern Africa, China–Mongolia and the drylands of South America, i.e. important parts of the desertification prone drylands of the world.It is concluded that the suggested methodology is a robust and reliable way to assess and monitor vegetation trends and related desertification on a regional–global scale. A strong general relationship between NDVI and rainfall over time is demonstrated for considerable parts of the drylands. The results of performed trend analysis cannot be used to verify any systematic generic land degradation/desertification trend at the regional–global level. On the contrary, a “greening-up” seems to be evident over large regions.     

Climate variability, vegetation productivity and people at risk

Human domination of ecosystems has been pervasive over the last century, with nearly half of Earth's surface transformed by human actions. It is widely accepted that humans appropriate up to 50% of global net primary production (NPP), the energy base of all the trophic levels on the land surface. Yet, despite the important role of vegetation productivity for defining Earth habitability, the covariation of NPP and human population distribution has not been analyzed in depth. We used recently available satellite-based NPP estimates, along with gridded population at 0.5° resolution, first, to identify the global distribution of human population with reference to average NPP and to the various climatic constraints (temperature, water and cloud cover) that limit NPP, second, to analyze recent trends in global NPP in relation to population trends, and third, to identify populations that are vulnerable to changes in NPP due to interannual variability in climate. Our results indicate that over half of the global human population is presently living in areas with above the average NPP of 490 g C m⁻² year⁻¹. By 1998, nearly 56% of global population lived in regions where water availability strongly influences NPP. Per capita NPP declined over much of Africa between 1982 and 1998, in spite of the estimated increases in NPP over the same period. On average, NPP over 40% of the total vegetated land surface has shown significant correlations with ENSO-induced climate variability affecting over 2.8 billion people.     

Twentieth century thinning of Mendenhall Glacier,Alaska, and its relationship to climate,lake calving,and glacier run-off

Mendenhall Glacier is a dynamic maritime glacier in southeast Alaska that is undergoing substantial recession and thinning. The terminus has retreated 3 km during the 20th century and the lower part of the glacier has thinned 200 m or more since 1909. Glacier-wide volume loss between 1948 and 2000 is estimated at 5.5 km³. Wastage has been the strongest in the glacier's lower reaches, but the glacier has also thinned at higher elevations. The shrinkage of Mendenhall Glacier appears to be due primarily to surface melting and secondarily to lake calving. The change in the average rate of thinning on the lower glacier, <1 m a⁻¹ between 1948 and 1982 and >2 m a⁻¹ since 1982, agrees qualitatively with observed warming trends in the region. Mean annual temperatures in Juneau decreased slightly from 1947 to 1976; they then began to increase, leading to an overall warming of ∼1.6 °C since 1943. Lake calving losses have periodically been a small but significant fraction of glacier ablation. The portion of the terminus that ends in the lake is becoming increasingly vulnerable to calving because of a deep pro-glacial lake basin. If current climatic trends persist, the glacier will continue to shrink and the terminus will recede onto land at a position about 500 m inland within one to two decades. The glacier and the meltwaters that flow from it are integral components of the Mendenhall Valley hydrologic system. Approximately 13% of the recent average annual discharge of the Mendenhall River is attributable to glacier shrinkage. Glacier melt contributes 50% of the total river discharge in summer.     

Variability in terrestrial carbon sinks over two decades: Part 2 — Eurasia

We have analyzed 17 yr (1982–1998) of net carbon flux predictions from a simulation model based on satellite observations of monthly vegetation cover. The NASA-CASA model was driven by vegetation cover properties derived from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer and radiative transfer algorithms that were developed for the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). We report that although the terrestrial ecosystem sink for atmospheric CO₂ for the Eurasian region has been fairly consistent at between 0.3 and 0.6 Pg C per year since 1988, high interannual variability in net ecosystem production (NEP) fluxes can be readily identified at locations across the continent. Ten major areas of highest variability in NEP were detected: eastern Europe, the Iberian Peninsula, the Balkan states, Scandinavia, northern and western Russia, eastern Siberia, Mongolia and western China, and central India. Analysis of climate anomalies over this 17-yr time period suggests that variability in precipitation and surface solar irradiance could be associated with trends in carbon sink fluxes within such regions of high NEP variability.     

Regions of He+ dominance in the high-latitude topside ionosphere

Observations of the occurrence of He⁺ dominance in the topside ionosphere are discussed. An earlier model of the behaviour of high-latitude H⁺ and O⁺ thermal plasma (Quegan et al., 1982) is extended to include He⁺ as a major ion. Calculations using the extended model show that plasma convection is likely to play a key rôle in producing regions of He⁺ dominance. Suggested conditions for He⁺ dominance are listed and their applicability to observed He⁺ behaviour is discussed.     

Radioactive isotopes in star forming regions

We examine the isotope production in star forming regions through a model of stellar-group population synthesis evolution. From this we obtain the light-curves of γ-ray line emission due to radioactive decay of ²⁶Al, ⁶⁰Fe and the e⁻e⁺ annihilation line. We discuss in particular, the effects of the dispersion due to the discreteness of the stellar populations. We conclude that when predicted γ-ray line observations are combined with other multi-wavelength measurements, one can efficiently constrain the age of a stellar population, and help to identify the primary nucleosynthesis sources of the radio-isotopes.     

Impact cratering as a cause of climate change,surface alteration,and resurfacing during the early history of Mars

Ancient valley networks (VNs) and related open- and closed-basin lakes are testimony to the presence of flowing liquid water on the surface of Mars in the Late Noachian and Early Hesperian. Uncertain, however, has been the mechanism responsible for causing the necessary rainfall and runoff and/or snowfall and subsequent melting. Impact cratering has been proposed (e.g., Segura et al. 2002) as a process for temporarily raising temperatures and inducing conditions that would produce rainfall, snowmelt, runoff, and formation of the VNs and associated lacustrine features. We refer to the collective effects of this process as the ICASE model (impact cratering atmospheric/surface effects). In this contribution, we assess the proposed impact cratering mechanism in order to understand its climatic implications for early Mars: we outline the step-by-step events in the cratering process and explore the predictions for atmospheric and surface geological consequences. For large and basin-scale impacts, rainfall should be globally and homogeneously distributed and characterized by very high temperatures. Rainfall rates are predicted to be high, ~2 m yr⁻¹, similar to rates in tropical rainforests on Earth, and runoff rates are correspondingly very high. These predicted characteristics do not seem to be consistent with the observed VNs, which are mainly equatorial and not homogeneous in their distribution. Prior to the Late Noachian, however, we predict that basin-scale impact effects are very likely to contribute significantly to degradation of crater rims and regional smoothing of terrain, implying vast resurfacing and resetting of crater ages following large crater and basin-scale impacts. Furthermore, the high temperatures of impact-induced rainwater and snowmelt and the pervasive penetration of heat into the regolith substrate are predicted to have a significant influence on the mineralogical alteration of the crust and its resulting physical properties. We conclude by describing a case example (Isidis basin) and describe how the ICASE model provides an alternative scenario for the interpretation of the layered phyllosilicates in the Nili Fossae and NE Sytris regions. We outline specific conclusions and recommendations designed to improve the ICASE model and to promote further understanding of its implications for the geological, mineralogical, and climate history of early Mars.     

On the optical properties of bacterial grains,I

We compute the detailed optical properties over the waveband 0.8 μm^?1?λ?10 μm^?1 for the bacterial grain model which we have discussed earlier. A model comprised of three biologically derived components, modified under interstellar conditions, is shown to be in close correspondence with the observed properties of interstellar dust. Data on interstellar extinction and polarization may be accounted for by this model.     

Topography and geomorphology of the Huygens landing site on Titan

The Descent Imager/Spectral Radiometer (DISR) aboard the Huygens Probe took several hundred visible-light images with its three cameras on approach to the surface of Titan. Several sets of stereo image pairs were collected during the descent. The digital terrain models constructed from those images show rugged topography, in places approaching the angle of repose, adjacent to flatter darker plains. Brighter regions north of the landing site display two styles of drainage patterns: (1) bright highlands with rough topography and deeply incised branching dendritic drainage networks (up to fourth order) with dark-floored valleys that are suggestive of erosion by methane rainfall and (2) short, stubby low-order drainages that follow linear fault patterns forming canyon-like features suggestive of methane spring-sapping. The topographic data show that the bright highland terrains are extremely rugged; slopes of order of 30° appear common. These systems drain into adjacent relatively flat, dark lowland terrains. A stereo model for part of the dark plains region to the east of the landing site suggests surface scour across this plain flowing from west to east leaving ∼100-m-high bright ridges. Tectonic patterns are evident in (1) controlling the rectilinear, low-order, stubby drainages and (2) the “coastline” at the highland–lowland boundary with numerous straight and angular margins. In addition to flow from the highlands drainages, the lowland area shows evidence for more prolific flow parallel to the highland–lowland boundary leaving bright outliers resembling terrestrial sandbars. This implies major west to east floods across the plains where the probe landed with flow parallel to the highland–lowland boundary; the primary source of these flows is evidently not the dendritic channels in the bright highlands to the north.     

Galactic Chemical Evolution of the Lighter Neutron Capture Elements Sr, Y and Zr

Based on a three-component Galaxy chemical evolutionary model satisfying a large set of Galactic and extragalactic constraints, we compute the chemical evolution of the lighter neutron capture elements (e.g., Sr, Y and Zr) taking into account contributions from three processes. We compare our model results with available observational results and find that the observed trends can be understood in the light of present knowledge of neutron capture nucleosynthesis.     

Agricultural impacts on ecosystem functioning in temperate areas of North and South America

Land use has a large impact on ecosystem functioning, though evidences of these impacts at the regional scale are scarce. The objective of this paper was to analyze the impacts of agricultural land use on ecosystem functioning (radiation interception and carbon uptake) in temperate areas of North and South America. From land cover maps generated using high-resolution satellite images we selected sites dominated by row crops (RC), small grain crops (SG), pastures (PA), and rangelands (RA) in the Central Plains of USA and the Pampas of Argentina. These two regions share climatic characteristics and the agricultural conditions (crop types) are also very similar. Both areas were originally dominated by temperate grasslands. In these sites we extracted the temporal series of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from the NOAA satellites for the period 1989–1998 and calculated the mean seasonal NDVI curve for each site. Additionally, we calculated the mean annual NDVI, the maximum NDVI, the date of the year when the max NDVI was recorded and the interannual variability of these three attributes. We compared the mean values of each NDVI-derived attribute between land cover types and between continents. The NDVI seasonal patterns for each land cover type were roughly similar between the Central Plains and the Pampas during the growing season. The largest differences were observed during the winter and spring, when the NDVI of all land cover types in the Central Plains remained at lower values than in the Pampas. This was probably caused by the high annual thermal amplitude in the Central Plains that results in a much more restricted growing season. As a result of these differences in the shape of the NDVI curve, the mean annual NDVI in the Central Plains was lower than in the Pampas for all land cover types but the maximum NDVI did not differ importantly. In both regions, row crops delayed the date of the NDVI peak, small grain crops advanced it and pastures did not change it importantly, compared with rangelands. The interannual variability of the NDVI attributes was higher for small grains than for row crops in both regions. However, small grains crops were consistently more variable between years in the Central Plains than in the Pampas. The opposite occurred with pastures and rangelands, which were more variable in the Pampas than in the Central Plains. This paper confirms and generalizes previous findings that showed important imprints of land use on ecosystem functioning in temperate ecosystems. Our results support the idea that the changes in land cover that have occurred in the Central Plains and the Pampas leaded to similar changes in the way that ecosystems absorb solar radiation and in the patterns of carbon uptake.     

A fast computation of the diurnal secondary ion production in the ionosphere of Titan

We propose an analytic model that allows rapid computation of the secondary ion production due to electron impact from the primary photo-production in the ionosphere of Titan. The model parameters are given for each of the 5 major ion productions (N⁺₂, CH⁺₄, N⁺, CH⁺₃, N⁺⁺₂) as well as for the electron production.     

Yields of Nucleosynthesis from massive and intermediate mass stars and constraints on their final evolution

Nucleosynthetic yields and production rates of helium and heavy elements are derived using new initial mass functions which take into account the recent revisions in O star counts and the stellar models of Maeder (1981a, b) which incorporate the effects of massloss on evolution. The current production rates are significantly higher than the earlier results due to Chiosi & Caimmi (1979) and Chiosi (1979), and a near-uniform birthrate operating over the history of the galactic disc explains the currently observed abundances. However, the yields are incompatibly high, and to obtain agreement it is necessary to assume that stars above a certain mass do not explode but proceed to total collapse. Further confirmation of this idea comes from the consideration of the specific yields and production rates of oxygen, carbon and iron and the constraints imposed by the observational enrichment history in the disc as discussed by Twarog & Wheeler (1982). Substantial amounts of⁴He and¹⁴C, amongst the primary synthesis species, are contributed by the intermediate mass stars in their wind phases. If substantial numbers of them exploded as Type I SN, their contribution to the yields of¹²C and⁵⁶Fe would be far in excess of the requirements of galactic nucleosynthesis. Either efficient massloss precludes such catastrophic ends for these stars, or the current stellar models are sufficiently in error to leave room for substantial revisions in the specific yields. The proposed upward revision of the¹²C (α,γ)¹⁶O rate may produce the necessary changes in stellar yields to provide a solution to this problem. Stars that produce most of the metals in the Galaxy are the same ones that contribute most to the observed supernova rate.     

Hard X-ray bremsstrahlung produced by electrons escaping a high-temperature thermal source in a solar flare

The problem of production of flare hard X-rays by bremsstrahlung from hot thermal escaping electrons (Skrynnikov and Somov, 1982) in a chromospheric plasma is studied.The Landau kinetic equation is solved near the thermal source of energized electrons in a homogeneous magnetic tube to compute the anisotropic inhomogeneous distribution of the thermal escaping electrons.The intensity and polarization of hard X-rays is also computed and a comparison of theoretical results with observational data is made.On leave from: Istituto di Astronomia, Largo E, Fermi 5, I-50125 Firenze, Italy.     

The characteristics of Asian dust events in Northeast Asia during the springtime from 1993 to 2004

The characteristics of Asian dust events that occurred in Northeast Asia during the springtime from 1993 to 2004 are investigated using 3-hourly SYNOP reports (World Meteorological Organization). Occurrences of blowing sand and dust storm are low in 1997 and 1999, but have increased rapidly since 2000. The maximum occurrence was recorded in 2002. Wind velocity of 6.5 m s^− 1 as a threshold wind velocity is not so exactly consistent with the occurrence of blowing sand. However, wind velocity of 14 m s^− 1 as a strong wind causing dust storm had similar tendency to those of dust storm and Dust Storm Index.Source regions of Asian dust are divided into three regions (A: dry arid, B: semi-arid, and C: cultivated), based upon the occurrence of blowing sand and dust storm. Eight meteorological stations are selected in three regions, which have frequent occurrences of blowing sand. Source regions of Asian dust that affect the Korean peninsula are gradually extending eastward. Positive anomalies of NDVI occurred in 1994, 1995, and 1998 when temperature was high and precipitation was heavy. However, the frequent occurrence of the dust phenomena is not always consistent with lots of vegetation, high temperature, and much precipitation in this study.     

An analysis of spectrophotometric observations of comets Austin (1982g) and Bradfield (1980t)

Post-perihelion observed emission fluxes at 388 nm (CN) and 516 nm (C₂) of the coma of comets Austin (1982g) and Bradfield (1980t) are analysed in the framework of the Haser model. Ratios of Haser model CN and C₂ parent production rates with expansion velocity show that each comet behaves normally. For comet Austin (1982g), the Q _CN/v and Q _c2/v values decrease with increase of heliocentric distance of comet. For an assumed %; activity of the total spherical surface area of the nucleus, the water vaporization theory coupled with derived water production rates from the International Ultraviolet Explorer H and OH flux data yields a nuclear diameter of about 6 km for comet Austin (1982g). For comet Bradfield (1980t), the derived nuclear diameter is expected to be of about 1 km. In each comet, the dust mass production rates as well as ratio of dust-to-gas mass production rates decrease with increase of heliocentric distance of comet.     

Structural evolution of Arsia Mons,Pavonis Mons,and Ascreus Mons: Tharsis region of Mars

Analysis of Viking Orbiter data suggests that Arsia Mons, Pavonis Mons, and Ascreus Mons, three large shield volcanoes of the Tharsis volcanoes of Mars, have had similar evolutionary trends. Arsia Mons appears to have developed in the following sequence: (1) construction of a main shield volcano, (2) outbreak of parasitic eruption centers on the northeast and southwest flanks, (3) volcano-tectonic subsidence of the summit and formation of concentric fractures and grabens, possibly by evacuation of an underlying magma chamber during eruption of copious lavas from parasitic eruption centers on the northeast and southwest flanks, and (4) continued volcanism along a fissure or rift bisecting the main shield, resulting in flooding of the floor of the volcano-tectonic depression and inundation of the northeast and southwest flanks by voluminous lavas locally forming parasitic shields. In terms of this sequence Pavonis Mons has developed to stage (3) and Ascreus Mons has evolved to stage (2). This interpretation is supported by crater frequency-diameter distributions in the 0.1? to 3.0 km-diameter range.     

Meter wavelength pulsating bursts during the May 21, 1972, solar noise storm

During the May 21, 1972, noise storm, flux density measurements were made, at a frequency of 140 MHz, of 14 pulsating bursts. These comprised trains of up to 20 pulses, having pulse repetition rates of up to 15 s^–1.A model for the burst mechanism is described, based upon the hypothesis that the pulsations are generated by the modulation of a thermally damped plasma wave source by periodic trains of whistler packets originating in unstable regions deep in the corona and passing through the meter wavelength source. These whistler packets further enhance the emissions by increasing the efficiency of the conversion of the plasma waves into electromagnetic waves.     

Analyses of dust coma morphology of Comet Hyakutake (1996 B2) near perigee: outburst behavior, jet motion, source region locations, and nucleus pole orientation

We present inner-coma dust imaging of Comet Hyakutake (1996 B2) obtained on 11 consecutive nights in late March 1996, an interval including a major outburst and the comet’s closest approach to Earth. The evolution of the outburst morphology is followed, along with the motion along the tail of several outburst fragments. Two spiral dust jets—a primary jet, along with a much weaker secondary jet—are visible throughout the interval and are produced by two source regions on a rotating nucleus. These are examined as a function of rotational phase and viewing geometry, with their appearance changing from a nearly face-on view on March 18 to side-on by March 28. The dust outflow velocity as a function of distance from the nucleus is derived, with the dust continuing to accelerate to a distance of 4000 km or more and reaching an average outflow velocity of 0.38 km s⁻¹ between 3000 and 8000 km. We present details of our Monte Carlo modeling of the jets and our methodology of fitting the model to the images. The modeling yields the pole orientation of the nucleus, with an obliquity of approximately 108°, corresponding to an RA of 13^h41^m and a Dec of −1.1°. For an assumed spherical nucleus, the primary active region is centered at approximately −66° latitude, has a radius of about 56°, and therefore covers about 22% of the surface. The source of the secondary jet is at a latitude of −28°, has a radius of about 16°, and is located at a longitude nearly 180° away from the primary source. Estimated uncertainties for the pole orientation and the source locations and sizes are each about 3°. This solution for the nucleus orientation and source locations explains the strong asymmetry in measured production rates before and after perihelion in radio observations (Biver et al., 1999, Astron. J. 118, 1850-1872). The modeling also tightly constrains the sidereal rotation period as 0.2618 ± 0.0001 day, completely consistent with the expected +0.0003 day difference from the observed solar rotation period of 0.2614 ± 0.0004 day determined by Schleicher and Osip (2002, Icarus 159, 210-233), given the pole orientation and position of the comet in its orbit.