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1.
Summary The increasing use of weather radar quantitative precipitation estimates, particularly in automatic applications such as operational
hydrometeorological modelling or assimilation in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, has promoted the development of
quality control procedures on radar data.
Anomalous propagation (AP) of the radar beam due to deviation from the standard refractivity vertical profile, is one of the
factors that may affect seriously the quality of radar observations because of the increase in quantity and intensity of non-precipitating
clutter echoes and consequent contamination of the estimated rainfall field. Another undesired effect of AP is the change
in the expected radar echo height, which may be relevant when correcting for beam blockage in radar rainfall estimation in
complex terrain. The aim of this paper is to study the use of NWP mesoscale forecasts to predict and monitor AP events.
A nested 15-km grid resolution version of the MASS model has been used to retrieve refractivity profiles in the coastal area
of Barcelona, near a weather radar and a radiosonde station. Using the refractivity profiles two different magnitudes were
computed: the vertical refractivity profile of the lowest 1000 m layer and a ducting index which describes the existence and
intensity of the most super-refractive layer contained in the lowest 3-km layer. A comparison between model forecasts and
radiosonde diagnostics during a six-month period showed that the model tended to underestimate the degree of super-refraction,
with a bias of 4 km−1 and RMSE of 11 km−1 in the 1-km vertical refractivity gradient. Further analysis of the data showed that a combination of previous observations
and forecasts allowed to produce modified forecasts improving the original direct model output, decreasing substantially the
bias, reducing the RMSE by 20% and improving the skill by 40%, beating also radiosonde observations persistence. 相似文献
2.
Summary. Mesoscale convective precipitation systems in the Alpine region are studied by analyzing radar and rain gauge data. The data
from weather radars in Austria, France, Germany, and Switzerland are combined into a composite. Availability of radar data
restricts the study mainly to the northern part of the Alpine region. Mesoscale convective systems (MCS) occur often in this
region and are comparable to large systems observed in the USA. Seven precipitation events lasting one to six days from the
years 1992–1996 are examined in detail. They all moved west to east and showed no diurnal preference in formation or dissipation.
They reach sizes of 2 − 6 · 104 km2. MCS with leading-line trailing-stratiform structure tended to be larger and more intense. A 25-year set of rain gauge data
indicates that a giant MCS (covering more than 4 · 104 km2 with more than 30 mm/day) occurs every 6 years in the northern Alpine region. MCS occur more frequently in the southern Alpine
region.
Received February 25, 1999/Revised June 29, 1999 相似文献
3.
Holocene changes in seasonal precipitation highlighted by fire incidence in eastern Canada 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Postglacial fire history has been reconstructed for eastern Canada from charcoal-influx anomalies from 30 sites taken from
a lacustrine charcoal database. The reconstruction exhibits coherent patterns of fire occurrence in space and time. The early
Holocene is characterised by high fire incidence. There is a major change to much lower occurrence slightly after 8 ka BP.
A return to more fire appears after 3 ka BP. This sequence does not fit with the hydro-climatic reconstruction deduced from
lake level reconstructions for northeastern North America, which indicates a dry early and mid-Holocene, and a wet late-Holocene.
Fire occurrence however closely matches summer relative humidity inferred from δ18O. The differences between fire frequency and lake level history, are due to changes in the seasonality of precipitation and
drought frequency. Lake levels are essentially controlled by winter precipitation while summer precipitation controls fire
occurrence. The early Holocene before 8–7.5 ka BP experienced dry summers due to higher solar radiation and dry adiabatic
winds from the residual Laurentide Ice Sheet. The middle Holocene was dominated by wet summers due to stability of the Atlantic
air mass over eastern Canada. After 2.5 ka BP, summers became drier, albeit not as fire-conducive as during the early Holocene.
Late-Holocene summers conducive to fire are explained by more frequent incursions of dry Cool Pacific or Cold Arctic air masses
over eastern Canada.
Received: 25 January 1999 / Accepted: 14 December 1999 相似文献
4.
Meso-gamma scale forecasts using the nonhydrostatic model LM 总被引:10,自引:0,他引:10
J. Steppeler G. Doms U. Schättler H. W. Bitzer A. Gassmann U. Damrath G. Gregoric 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2003,82(1-4):75-96
Summary ?The nonhydrostatic model LM was developed for small scale operational predictions. Advances in computer development will
give the possibility of operational models of a rather fine scale, which will cover the meso-gamma scale. The LM is currently
applied at a scale of 7 km and an increase of the operational resolution to 2.5 km is planned for the next few years. Predictions
of such high resolution require to abandon the hydrostatic assumption, which is used with most current operational weather
prediction models. The LM was designed to cover all resolutions from 50 m to 50 km with an efficiency making it suitable for
operational use. It is a fully elastic model, using second order centred finite differences. The time integration is done
using the Klemp–Wilhelmson method, treating the slow modes by a larger time step than the fast modes. The vertical propagation
of the fast waves is done implicitly.
After describing the design of the LM, this paper gives examples of model predictions at the meso-γ scale. Some results of
the current operational application at the resolution 7 km are presented. Deficiencies in the localisation of model generated
precipitation are investigated using an idealised bell shaped mountain and applying different resolutions. In this way the
convergence to the correct solution can be investigated. From these results it is concluded, that orographic filtering is
necessary and the effect of such filtering on precipitation forecasts is investigated. Finally, the prediction of a squall
line over northern Germany is shown in order to demonstrate the potential of the model in forecasting the meso-γ scale.
Received May 15, 2001; revised September 21, 2001 相似文献
5.
A. S. Broad 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2000,72(1):1-11
Summary. ?A hydrostatic numerical model is used to simulate the lee wave event IOP3 (0000 GMT to 1200 GMT 15th October 1990) from the PYREX mountain experiment. Results from integrations at different horizontal resolutions are used
to investigate the effect on surface pressure drag and the vertical flux of horizontal momentum due to orographically forced
gravity waves. In particular, results showing the dependence on resolution of the partitioning between resolved and parametrized
wave drag and fluxes are presented. With the model horizontal gridlength changing from 50 km to 10 km the majority of wave
momentum flux changes from being parametrized to becoming resolved. More significantly, there is a change in the profile of
flux with height. At 50 km resolution the largest inferred mean flow decelerations are at lower stratospheric level due to
the parametrization scheme. At 10 km resolution this is shifted, with less deceleration high up and more wave deceleration
lower down in the troposphere. Numerical weather prediction models are now beginning to take account of such low level drag
with beneficial results.
Received March 2, 1999/Revised July 15, 1999 相似文献
6.
基于TIGGE多模式降水量预报的统计降尺度研究 总被引:7,自引:0,他引:7
利用TIGGE资料中欧洲中期天气预报中心、美国国家环境预报中心、英国气象局以及日本气象厅4个中心,1~7 d预报时效的降水量预报资料,以TRMM/3B42RT降水量作为"观测值",对东亚地区降水量进行统计降尺度处理。首先利用逻辑回归方法将天气分为有雨和无雨,再对有雨的情况,利用线性回归方法对插值后的预报结果进行降尺度订正,最后将4个中心的预报值进行消除偏差集合平均,得到多模式集成的降水量预报场。结果表明:逻辑回归能够有效地改善预报中小雨的空报情况,统计降尺度订正后的预报结果比直接插值更加准确,多模式集成的预报效果优于单模式结果,其改进效果随预报时效的延长逐渐减小。 相似文献
7.
Summary Estimates of spring precipitation for the inner Alpine dry valley of the upper Inn (Tyrol, Austria) are made back to A.D.
1724 using a ring width chronology of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) as predictor. A highly significant agreement in year-to-year ring width changes exists between several chronologies along
the dry valley. The dendroclimatic model used for climate reconstruction is a simple linear transfer function that estimates
April–June precipitation from current tree-ring width. All verification statistics commonly used in dendroclimatological research
are significant ( p < 0.01) and indicate that the reconstructed time series provides valuable information on past spring precipitation variability.
Reconstructed spring rainfall deficiencies and surpluses ≥ 20% compared to the long-term mean in 1819, 1832, 1834, 1865, 1885,
and in 1780, 1782, 1821, 1853, 1910, respectively, are also documented by local historical records. Furthermore, a comparison
is made with an independent climate reconstruction based on historical weather indices valid for the northern side of the
Swiss Alps. A fairly good agreement is found between both spring rainfall reconstructions at low frequency intervals during
1755–1862 and 1919–1981. This preliminary study shows that tree-rings can be used to reconstruct spring rainfall variability
for inner Alpine dry valleys.
Received December 18, 2000 Revised May 28, 2001 相似文献
8.
R. Mladek J. Barckicke P. Binder P. Bougeault N. Brzovic C. Frei J. F. Geleyn J. Hoffman W. Ott T. Paccagnella P. Patruno P. Pottier A. Rossa 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2000,72(2-4):111-129
Summary The precipitation forecasts of four operational numerical weather prediction models over the Alpine region are evaluated
and intercompared for two periods of interest to the Mesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP). The new analysis of Alpine rainfall
of Frei and Scha?r (1998) is used to validate the models. It is found that the models have a tendency to overestimate the
total precipitation and the frequency of intense rain events over high orography. The skill scores show good consistency between
models, except for the ability to forecast light rain or heavy rain events. The partition between convective and stratiform
rainfall is rather variable between the models.
Received March 15, 1999/Revised July 12, 1999 相似文献
9.
Summary This paper summarizes results from a mesoscale modeling study to quantify the possible meteorological and energy-use impacts
of large-scale increases in surface albedo and vegetative fraction. Ten regions in the U.S. were characterized and simulated
in base- and modified-surface conditions. Time- and space-dependent meteorological variables were simulated for each region
in four 3-day episodes to represent a range of seasonal variations.
Using a simple interpolative procedure, a complete year of hourly weather data was created for each region (based on episodic
meteorological simulation results) and input into energy-use models. The modified weather input was used to assess the effects
of large-scale albedo and vegetative fraction changes on annual energy consumption in each of the ten areas targeted in this
study. The simulations suggest annual electricity savings of between 1and 6.7 kWh m−2 (of roof area) in residential neighborhoods and between 2 and 6.1 kWh m−2 in office areas, depending on region. Annual gas penalties amount to up to 34.8 MJ m−2 (of roof area) in residential neighborhoods and up to 21.1 MJ m−2 in office areas.
Received December 1, 1996 Revised May 11, 1998 相似文献
10.
Both aerosol and rainwater samples were collected and analyzed for ionic species at a coastal site in Southeast Asia over
a period of 9 months (January–September 2006) covering different monsoons. In general, the occurrence and distribution of
ionic species showed a distinct seasonal variation in response to changes in air mass origins. Real-time physical characterization
of aerosol particles during rain events showed changes in particle number distributions which were used to assess particle
removal processes associated with precipitation, or scavenging. The mean scavenging coefficients for particles in the range
10–500 nm and 500–10 μm were 7.0 × 10−5 ± 2.8 × 10−5 s−1 and 1.9 × 10−4 ± 1.6 × 10−5 s−1, respectively. A critical analysis of the scavenging coefficients obtained from this study suggested that the wet removal
of aerosol particles was greatly influenced by rain intensity, and was particle size-dependent as well. The scavenging ratios,
another parameter used to characterize particle removal processes by precipitation, for NH4
+, Cl−, SO4
2−, and NO3
− were found to be higher than those of Na+, K+, and Ca2+ of oceanic and crustal origins. This enrichment implied that gaseous species NH3, HCl, and HNO3 could also be washed out readily. These additional sources of ions in precipitation presumably counter-balanced the dilution
effect caused by high total precipitation volume in the marine and tropical area. 相似文献
11.
Summary The aim of the paper lies in the identification of possible significant linear trends at monthly, seasonal and annual timescales
in the Mediterranean during the second half of the 20th century. Monthly and daily records of 63 stations have been used to
elaborate several precipitation indices: sum of daily precipitation (SDP) for rainfall >0.1 mm, >10 mm and >95th percentile, of number of rainy days (RD) >0.1 mm and >10 mm and of mean daily precipitation (MDP) >0.1 mm and >10 mm. For
each index the stations have been gathered together by Rotated Principal Component Analyses to determine 8 sub-areas which
can be considered as identical for all the timescales at the spatial scale of the research. Trends have been estimated from
the scores of each eigenvector retained in all RPCAs. They are mainly non existant or non significant decreasing, even if
a few monthly trends appear to be significantly diminishing, primarily during winter months, March in the Atlantic region,
October in the Mediterranean Spain, December in the Lions and Genoa Gulfs, January, winter and the year in Greece, winter
and the year in Italy and winter in the Near East and increasing in April in the two gulfs. Correlation coefficients between
SDP>0.1 mm and other indices have been computed: the significant trends seem mainly related to RD>10 mm, which represents
a high percentage of the total rainfall amount. Greece is remarkable: SDP>0.1 mm and >10 mm decrease significantly during
January, winter, the rainy season and the entire year whereas SDP>95th percentile increases significantly, in accordance with the climatic change scenarios for the end of this century as does
the decreasing of the total monthly and seasonal rainfall. 相似文献
12.
Summary ?The LITFASS project (‘Lindenberg Inhomogeneous Terrain – Fluxes between Atmosphere and Surface: a Long-term Study’) of the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD, German Meteorological Service) aims to develop and to test a strategy for the determination
and parameterisation of the area-averaged turbulent fluxes of heat, momentum, and water vapour over a heterogeneous land surface.
These fluxes will be representative for an area of about 10 * 10 km2 (while the typical patch size is between 10−1 to 100 km2) corresponding to the size of a grid cell in the present operational numerical weather prediction model of the DWD.
LITFASS consists of three components:
– the development of a non-hydrostatic micro-α-scale model (the LITFASS local model – LLM) with a grid-size of about 100 * 100 m2,
– experimental investigations of land surface – atmosphere exchange processes and boundary layer structure within a 20 * 20 km2 area around the Meteorological Observatory Lindenberg,
– the assimilation of a data base as an interface between measurements and modelling activities.
The overall project strategy was tested over a three-week period in June 1998 during the LITFASS-98 field experiment. This
paper gives an overview on the LITFASS project, on the design and measurement program of the LITFASS-98 experiment, and on
the weather conditions during the period of the experiment. Conclusions are formulated for the operational realisation of
the LITFASS measurement concept and for future field experiments aimed at studying the land surface – atmosphere interaction
in the Lindenberg area. Selected results from both experimental and modelling activities are presented in a series of companion
papers completing this special issue of the journal.
Received June 18, 2001; revised March 18, 2002; accepted April 2, 2002 相似文献
13.
Summary Three cyclones developing between 28 August and 6 September 1995 were studied with respect to the temporal evolution of their
water budget components. The cyclones were simulated with the regional model REMO. Water budget values were determined from
hourly model output for circle areas with 500 km radius around the pressure minimum. The results show a maximum liquid water
path of about 0.12 kg m−2 and a maximum ice water path of 0.16 kg m−2. In the vertical cloud structure the medium cloud layer disappears at the end of the life cycle for all three cyclones. The
release of precipitation onto the Baltic Sea drainage basin is different for each cyclone. It lies between 13 and 22 · 1012 kg. This is about 50% of the total precipitation in the whole area for the strongest cyclone and 65% for the others. The
P — E (precipitation minus evaporation) is 15 · 1012 kg for two of the cyclones and 10 · 1012 kg for the third one.
Received August 7, 2000 Revised March 19, 2001 相似文献
14.
Decreasing teleconnections with inter-site distance in monthly climatic data and tree-ring width networks in a mountainous Alpine area 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
C. Rolland 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2002,71(1-2):63-75
Summary The similarities in time series recorded at sites which are distant from each other are called teleconnections. In this paper,
the loss of such correlations with inter-site distance was investigated for both climatic and dendrochronological data sets,
with 70 tree-ring chronologies. A dense network of weather stations was studied in the southeastern French Alps, covering
complex climatic gradients over three departments. 78 sites with precipitation data (with a total of 48 756 monthly values),
and 48 stations that recorded temperature (with 20 722 monthly mean values) were analysed. In the same area, four coniferous
species (mountain pine and stone pine, European larch and Norway spruce) provided 37 ring-width chronologies for high elevation
sites near the timberline. Both silver fir and Norway spruce provided a second tree-ring chronology network for 33 different
sites at lower elevations.
The teleconnections between precipitation series were found to be higher than those observed for temperature over short distances,
but the maximum threshold distance was lower (193 km) compared to a positive correlation distance that exceeds 500 km for
temperature. The maximum temperatures had stronger teleconnections than minimum values (522 km versus 476 km), since the latter
are linked more with other site factors, such as slope, exposure and local topography.
As expected, the tree-ring chronologies showed weaker teleconnections than the climatic series, with a threshold distance
of 374 km obtained for all high elevation forests. The coniferous species with high intra-specific teleconnections over large
distances were, in decreasing importance, Pinus uncinata (> 500 km), Picea abies (477 km), Pinus cembra (over 254 km) and Larix decidua (over 189 km only). The two former species showed the highest intra-specific correlations (with mean correlation R=0.625 and 0.666). The dendrochronological teleconnections were found to have a extent lesser for trees species that depend
on rainfall (such as larch, and stone pine). They are enhanced, however, for temperature sensitive species such as spruce
and mountain pine (a drought resistant tree). Therefore, these two latter conifers appear to be especially suitable for climatic
reconstruction over large distances in mountainous areas. However, teleconnections within silver fir (Abies alba) and spruce chronologies were sharply reduced (over 131 km and 135 km) in lower elevation forests, underlining the interest
of timberline forests for dendroclimatology.
A better knowledge of the spatial correlations in climatic series and ring-width data may enable the optimisation of weather
station networks. It may also permit a better choice of weather stations used for dendroclimatology, either for tree-ring
and climate relationship calibration or for climate reconstructions. In dendrochronology, wood dating also requires the knowledge
of to what extent remote ring-width chronologies can be used.
Received September 11, 2000 Revised March 26, 2001 相似文献
15.
Summary The Siberian High is the most important atmospheric centre of action in Eurasia during the winter months. Here its variability
and relationship with temperature and precipitation is investigated for the period 1922 to 2000. The pronounced weakening
of the Siberian High during the last ∼ 20 years is its most remarkable feature. Mean temperature, averaged over middle to
high latitude Asia (30° E–140° E, 30° N–70° N), is correlated with the Siberian High central intensity (SHCI) with correlation
coefficient of − 0.58 (1922–1999), and for precipitation, the correlation coefficient is − 0.44 (1922–1998). Taking the Arctic
Oscillation (AO), the SHCI, the Eurasian teleconnection pattern (EU), and the Southern Oscillation (SO) index into account,
72 percent of the variance in temperature can be explained for the period 1949–1997 (for precipitation the variance is 26
percent), with the AO alone explaining 30 percent of the variance, and the Siberian High contributing 24 percent. The precipitation
variance explained by the Siberian High is only 9.8 percent of the total.
Received January 2, 2001 Revised November 24, 2001 相似文献
16.
Summary. ?Cyclone track predictions in the Indian seas (Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea) with a quasi-Lagrangian model (QLM) have been
attempted. QLM has a horizontal resolution of 40 km and 16 sigma levels in the vertical. It is integrated in a domain of about
4400 × 4400 km2. A new initialization procedure to provide initial fields for running the model has been designed. The initialization procedure
consists of updating the global model forecasts, used as first guess, provided by the National Center for Medium Range Weather
Forecasting (NCMRWF), New Delhi. A new version of IMD’s operational optimum interpolation scheme has been created to suit
the QLM grid structure. Lateral boundary conditions are computed from the extended forecasts of NCMRWF. The track forecasts
in each case show a reasonable skill of the forecast model in predicting the direction of movement within acceptable limits
of forecast errors, which are comparable to some of the best models operated by advanced NWP centers of the world. Even the
recurving storms are well predicted. Evolution of the vertical motion fields are also studied which reveal some interesting
features, which are described in detail in the text. The composited vertical motion fields are projected against observed
rainfall distribution, which show a good spatial correspondence.
Received August 9, 2001; revised March 12, 2002; accepted June 17, 2002
Published online: May 8, 2003 相似文献
17.
Summary A global warming, primarily affecting wintertime conditions at high latitudes will influence the functioning of the boreal
forest. The least known term of the winter water-balance equation is evaporation of snow intercepted in forest canopies. Several
investigations stress the importance of snow-interception evaporation in coniferous forests and evaporation fractions of gross
precipitation as large as 0.2–0.5 have been observed by investigators in Scotland, Canada, and Japan. Evaporation rates as
high as 0.56 mm h−1 are reported. The largest differences between the rain and snow interception evaporation processes are the differences in
storage. Snow storage (both mass and duration) is often an order of magnitude larger than that for rain. Snow interception
changes the canopy albedo although some studies indicate the opposite. Process knowledge is limited because of measurement
difficulties but it is known that canopy closure, aerodynamic resistance (r
a
), and vapour-pressure deficit are important factors. Existing formulations of r
a
as function of storage location and age cannot fully explain observed differences in evaporation rates. Operationalhydrology
and weather models, and GCMs describe snow interception in a very simplified way and might benefit from incorporation of more
realistic schemes.
Received June 28, 1999 相似文献
18.
Summary A mesoscale convective system (MCS) case that developed over the Yellow Sea (12–13 July 1993) is studied by using a 23-level,
30 km-mesh Penn State/NCAR mesoscale model MM5. This MCS was generated in northern China, south of the Changma front, in a
convectively unstable environment, under the influence of a short-wave trough accompanied by a marked cold vortex aloft.
The model with all model physics (refereed to as CNTL) captured the major features of this MCS. A mesoscale low-level jet
(mLLJ), with a horizontal scale of a few hundred km, developed within the MCS. Available wind data support the realism of
this mLLJ. This mLLJ not only transports convectively unstable air directly toward the MCS but is also responsible for a strong
low-level convergence in the MCS. At 200 hPa, an anticyclonic northwesterly flow with a relatively high wind speed core on
the east of MCS was simulated. This relatively high-speed flow can be regarded as a mesoscale upper level jet (mULJ), acted
as an upper outflow over the MCS. Low-level convergence on the left-front of the mLLJ and upper divergence in the right-rear
of the mULJ creates a strong upward motion (≅ 40 cm s−1) in the MCS.
Heavy precipitation up to 45 mm between 1800–2100 UTC was observed after this MCS landed on the southern Korean Peninsula.
The CNTL run captured this heavy rainfall event. A maximum rainfall of 50 mm 3 h−1 was simulated. In another experiment, with surface sensible and moisture fluxes withheld (NOSF), the 3-h simulated rainfall
was decreased to 30 mm. Less latent heat released in the NOSF led to a weaker MCS and mLLJ. The concurrent surface fluxes
sustained a high low-level moisture field over the Yellow Sea, which helped the development of the MCS and enhanced its precipitation
in this case.
Received January 8, 1999 相似文献
19.
M. Mayers T. N. Krishnamurti C. Depradine L. Moseley 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2001,78(1-2):75-88
Summary
A month-long short-range numerical weather prediction experiment using the Florida State University’s (FSU) global and regional
models and the multi-model/multi-analysis super-ensemble over the Eastern Caribbean domain is presented in this paper. The
paper also investigates weather prediction capabilities of FSU global and regional models by examining the root mean square
errors (RMSE) for the wind and precipitation fields.
Super-ensemble forecasting, a new statistical approach to weather forecasting, is used over this domain. Here, forecasts from
a number of numerical models provide the input and statistical combinations of these forecasts produce the super-ensemble
forecast. A similar approach is used for the precipitation field where one model using different rain rate algorithms is used
to generate different model outputs.
The results show that the super-ensemble method produces forecasts that are superior to those obtained from the ensemble members.
Received May 29, 2000/Revised February 15, 2001 相似文献
20.
R. García-Herrera D. Barriopedro E. Hernández D. Paredes J. F. Correoso L. Prieto 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2005,90(3-4):225-243
Summary This paper characterizes Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) during 2001 over Iberia and the Balearic Islands and their meteorological
settings. Enhanced infrared Meteosat imagery has been used to detect their occurrence over the Western Mediterranean region
between June and December 2001 according to satellite-defined criteria based on the MCS physical characteristics.
Twelve MCSs have been identified. The results show that the occurrence of 2001 MCSs is limited to the August–October period,
with September being the most active period. They tend to develop during the late afternoon or early night, with preferred
eastern Iberian coast locations and eastward migrations. A cloud shield area of 50.000 km2 is rarely exceeded. When our results are compared with previous studies, it is possible to assert that though 2001 MCS activity
was moderate, the convective season was substantially less prolonged than usual, with shorter MCS life cycles and higher average
speeds. The average MCS precipitation rate was 3.3 mm·h−1 but a wide range of values varying from scarce precipitation to intense events of 130 mm·24 h−1 (6 September) were collected. The results suggest that, during 2001, MCS rainfall was the principal source of precipitation
in the Mediterranean region during the convective season, but its impact varied according to the location.
Synoptic analysis based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis show that several common precursors could be identified over the Western Mediterranean
Sea when the 2001 MCSs occurred: a low-level tongue of moist air and precipitable water (PW) exceeding 25 mm through the southern
portion of the Western Mediterranean area, low-level zonal warm advection over 2 °C·24 h−1 towards eastern Iberia, a modest 1000–850 hPa equivalent potential temperature (θe) difference over 20 °C located close to the eastern Iberian coast, a mid level trough (sometimes a cut-off low) over Northern
Africa or Southern Spain and high levels geostrophic vorticity advection exceeding 12·10−10 s−2 over eastern Iberia and Northern Africa. Finally, the results suggest that synoptic, orographic and a warm-air advection
were the most relevant forcing mechanisms during 2001. 相似文献