Using random forest for the risk assessment of coal-floor water inrush in Panjiayao Coal Mine,northern China

Coal-floor water-inrush incidents account for a large proportion of coal mine disasters in northern China, and accurate risk assessment is crucial for safe coal production. A novel and promising assessment model for water inrush is proposed based on random forest (RF), which is a powerful intelligent machine-learning algorithm. RF has considerable advantages, including high classification accuracy and the capability to evaluate the importance of variables; in particularly, it is robust in dealing with the complicated and non-linear problems inherent in risk assessment. In this study, the proposed model is applied to Panjiayao Coal Mine, northern China. Eight factors were selected as evaluation indices according to systematic analysis of the geological conditions and a field survey of the study area. Risk assessment maps were generated based on RF, and the probabilistic neural network (PNN) model was also used for risk assessment as a comparison. The results demonstrate that the two methods are consistent in the risk assessment of water inrush at the mine, and RF shows a better performance compared to PNN with an overall accuracy higher by 6.67%. It is concluded that RF is more practicable to assess the water-inrush risk than PNN. The presented method will be helpful in avoiding water inrush and also can be extended to various engineering applications.     

A simple analytical method for calculating temperature perturbations in a basin caused by the flow of water through thin, shallow-dipping aquifers

Fluid flow in sedimentary basins can be driven by a variety of mechanisms. Commonly, flow is localized in relatively thin aquifers or structures and often these permeable units may be approximated by a series of straight planar segments with shallow dip. A simple formula is derived that describes temperature perturbations in a straight aquifer segment with shallow dip. The temperature is determined everywhere along the segment if the flow rate and temperature at one point is known. “Daisy chaining” the solutions allows easy calculation of the temperature perturbation in a basin caused by fluid flow through a shallow-dipping network of linear fault and aquifer segments. The approach may find many applications but is here illustrated the a number of examples related to the origin of Mississippi Valley-type PbZn deposits. The cases considered emphasize the “salinity problem” encountered by models that hypothesize these deposits formed as the result of cross-basin hydrological flow.     

PNN在煤田随钻测井岩性判识应用研究

介绍了PNN方法原理及其算法训练学习过程,详细阐述了网络识别岩性参数的选取、岩性识别模型的建立过程.通过对比研究PNN与其他6种岩性识别方法,分析相同条件下预测结果,得到不同识别方法的优劣性.经研究发现,PNN概率神经网络方法在生产应用中效果更佳、训练识别用时最短.利用人工智能神经网络对测井数据进行自动解释分析,可满足随钻测井时效性及快速解释处理的地质导向需求.     

Modeling of the Shale Volume in the Hendijan Oil Field Using Seismic Attributes and Artificial Neural Networks

Petrophysical properties have played an important and definitive role in the study of oil and gas reservoirs, necessitating that diverse kinds of information are used to infer these properties. In this study, the seismic data related to the Hendijan oil field were utilised, along with the available logs of 7 wells of this field, in order to use the extracted relationships between seismic attributes and the values of the shale volume in the wells to estimate the shale volume in wells intervals. After the overall survey of data, a seismic line was selected and seismic inversion methods (model-based, band limited and sparse spike inversion) were applied to it. Amongst all of these techniques, the model-based method presented the better results. By using seismic attributes and artificial neural networks, the shale volume was then estimated using three types of neural networks, namely the probabilistic neural network (PNN), multi-layer feed-forward network (MLFN) and radial basic function network (RBFN).     

Neural network-based model for assessing failure potential of highway slopes in the Alishan, Taiwan Area: Pre- and post-earthquake investigation

This paper is aimed at creating an empirical model for assessing failure potential of highway slopes, with a special attention to the failure characteristics of the highway slopes in the Alishan, Taiwan area prior to, and post, the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan earthquake. The basis of the study is a large database of 955 slope records from four highways in the Alishan area. Artificial neural network (ANN) is utilized to “learn” from this database. The developed ANN model is then used to study the effect of the Chi-Chi earthquake on the slope failure characteristics in the Alishan area. Significant changes in the degrees of influence of several factors (variables) are found and possible reasons for such changes are discussed. The novelty of this paper lies in the fact that the developed ANN models are used as a tool to investigate the slope failure characteristics before and after the Chi-Chi earthquake.     

The correlation between the macroseismic attenuation trend and the geo-structural framework; The calabropeloritan arc as an example

After describing attempts at perfecting a methodology for studying isotropic and anisotropic macroseismic fields in previous works, the authors here try to identify the causes of anisotropy in the context of the “new basement tectonics”.The seismic data are taken both from reconstructions of the macroseismic fields of historic events, by means of a critical analysis of the data, and from macroseismic fields of recent events surveyed by the authors. These data are correlated to the structural framework obtained through recent neotectonic studies and the lineament distribution traced on satellite images and using the “shadow” method. Generally the direction of elongation of the mesoseismic area is closely dependent on the source parameters and can be associated with recent and present-day systems outlined by the latest neotectonic studies.The best correlation is observed, however, with the lineament pattern obtained using the “shadow” method: the domains of the lineaments associated with the preferential trend of the macroseismic field show, in the rose diagram of cumulative number, values of prevalence and kurtosis higher than average; in the cumulative lengths diagram, on the other hand, they show prevalence maxima and, in particular, kurtosis maxima which are all the higher the more the anisotropic trend of field is accentuated. Using the “Giant Griffith Cracks” model for the lineaments, it can be deduced that the swarms refer to fracture systems with greater vertical development generated during the most recent tectonic phases.Finally, from a study of the dynamic characteristics of the elastic waves, that are the main agents responsible for macroseismic effects, it can observed that the wavelength order of magnitude is comparable with that of the linear parameters in the “warp” formed by the “Giant Cracks”. It can, thus, be deduced that the strong absorption of energy can be determined by the fracture swarm when the wave propagation occurs orthogonally to the swarm.     

Stress fields about strike-slip faults inferred from stylolites and tension gashes

In general, the long axis of the tension gashes and stylolitic columns developed in limestones during a single phase of compressional deformation occur parallel to the direction of the maximum compressive stress (σ₁). This is the case in the Languedoc for structures developed in the Jurassic limestones during the N-S Pyrenean compression. Exceptionnally, however, these microstructures turn in direction and become oblique (even orthogonal) one to the other, probably as a consequence of a variation in intensity and direction of the stress field at the end of a microfault. This mechanism also occurs in a larger scale structure involving segments of pre-tectonic joints that act as “en échelon” microfaults in a brittle “kink-band” equivalent to a peculiar type of potential wrench-fault.     

Homogenization estimates for texture evolution in halite

In this work, the recently developed “second-order” self-consistent method [Liu, Y., Ponte Castañeda, P., 2004a. Second-order estimates for the effective behavior and field fluctuations in viscoplastic polycrystals. J. Mech. Phys. Solids 52 467–495] is used to simulate texture evolution in halite polycrystals. This method makes use of a suitably optimized linear comparison polycrystal and has the distinguishing property of being exact to second order in the heterogeneity contrast. The second-order model takes into consideration the effects of hardening and of the evolution of both crystallographic and morphological texture to yield reliable predictions for the macroscopic behavior of the polycrystal. Comparisons of these predictions with full-field numerical simulations [Lebensohn, R.A., Dawson, P.R., Kern, H.M., Wenk, H.R., 2003. Heterogeneous deformation and texture development in halite polycrystals: comparison of different modeling approaches and experimental data. Tectonophysics 370 287–311], as well as with predictions resulting from the earlier “variational” and “tangent” self-consistent models, included here for comparison purposes, provide insight into how the underlying assumptions of the various models affect slip in the grains, and therefore the texture predictions in highly anisotropic and nonlinear polycrystalline materials. The “second-order” self-consistent method, while giving a softer stress-strain response than the corresponding full-field results, predicts a pattern of texture evolution that is not captured by the other homogenization models and that agrees reasonably well with the full-field predictions and with the experimental measures.     

Long base line tilt and strain measurement

Two types of noise afflict strain and tilt measurement. They may be categorized as “active” noise, which is due to atmospheric pressure variations, temperature variations, water-table variations and so forth; and “passive” or signal-generated noise which is a consequence of the interaction of the strain field of interest with inhomogeneities of material properties local to the measurement site.The reason why both types of noise are normally reduced by the use of long base line instruments is explained and a simple, practical long base line tiltmeter is described.     

概率神经网络在地震岩性反演中的应用

卧龙湖煤矿北二采区岩浆岩侵入8煤层的现象较为严重,同时该区煤层中构造煤比较发育,瓦斯富集问题较为突出。利用三维地震资料、测井曲线进行约束反演得到的波阻抗作为外部属性,并使用step-wise属性选择法确定合适数目的地震属性,利用概率神经网络技术(PNN)对该区进行孔隙度预测反演。孔隙度反演结果与波阻抗反演结果的对比表明:孔隙度较波阻抗对于识别瓦斯富集带具有更高的分辨能力;概率神经网络具有高稳定性、计算精度高等特点,可作为研究构造煤发育和瓦斯赋存的有效手段。      

Soil-structure interaction in shield tunnelling in soft soil

The development and extension of large cities creates a need for multiple shallow tunnels in the soft ground of building areas. Prediction of the ground settlement caused by the tunnel excavation is a major engineering challenge. A numerical simulation using a finite element method was implemented in the aim of developing a procedure to predict the movement induced by shield tunnelling in soft soil. This study describes a two-dimensional modelling and compares two procedures. The first procedure is done in a simple way (called “deconfinement modelling”) simulating the excavation using a stress decrease vector exerted on the excavation boundary (inside the tunnel) described by a stress release scalar parameter λ (named the “deconfinement factor”). The second procedure is composed of a complete stage of modelling (called “phase modelling”) taking into account different phases which simulate the different kinds of interactions between the tunnel and the soil (deconfinement, lining installation, pore pressure applied on the lining, and weight of the lining). Using a shallow lined tunnel with homogeneous soil conditions, the two procedures are analysed and compared. Then, the second modelling procedure is applied to the case of the metro of Lyon where field data have been obtained. Observations of the results and comparison with the experimental data demonstrate that the proposed modelling is adequate for the analyses of settlement induced by tunnelling in soft soil.     

Magnetic overprints in granitoids and metamorphic rocks from Limousin (France): evidence for Late Variscan rotations, crustal folding and tilting

Generally, the lack of bedding criteria in basement units hampers the interpretation of paleomagnetic results in terms of geotectonics. Nevertheless, this work demonstrates that successive remagnetizations recorded in Early Carboniferous metamorphic and plutonic units, without clear bedding criteria, can be used to constrain a polyphased tectonic evolution consisting of a regional clockwise rotation, followed by a folding phase, a tilting phase and a second regional clockwise rotation.Metamorphic, ultrabasic, tonalitic and granitic rocks from different parts of Limousin (western French Massif central; 45.5°N/1.25°E), which underwent metamorphism during Devonian–Early Carboniferous or were intruded in the Early–Middle Carboniferous, were sampled in order (a) to identify the magnetic overprinting phases and the related tectono-magmatic events and (b) to constrain the regional and plate tectonic evolution of Limousin. Paleomagnetic results from 32 new and 26 sites investigated previously show that at least 90% of the magnetization isolated in rocks older than 330 Ma are overprints. In agreement with results from adjacent areas of the Variscan belt, the major overprinting phases occurred: (a) in the last stages of the major exhumation phase [332–328 Ma; mean Virtual Geomagnetic Pole (VGP) “Cp”: 37°N/70.5°E], (b) during the post-collisional syn-orogenic extension (325–315 Ma; VGP “B”: 11°N/114°E), (c) in the Latest Carboniferous and Early Permian (VGP “A1”: 27°N/149°E) and (d) in the Late Permian (VGP “A”: 48°N/146°E). The Middle–Late Carboniferous overprints “Cp” and “B” are contemporaneous with emplacement of leucogranitic, crustal derived plutons, and probably result from the hydro-thermal activity related to the magmatism. The drift from “Cp” directions to “B” directions implies that after 330 Ma, Limousin underwent a clockwise rotation by 65°, together with the Central Europe Variscides. The “Bt” components, the VGPs of which deviate from the mean apparent polar wander path (APWP) of the belt, are interpreted as “B” overprints tilted during Late Variscan tectonics, that is, in the time range 325–315 Ma. The first and most important generation of “Bt” overprints was tilted during NW–SE folding associated with NE–SW shortening, updoming and emplacement of leucogranitic plutons. The second generation reveals southeastward tilting due to NE-striking normal faulting. The drift from “B” to “A1” directions implies that Limousin has participated to the second clockwise rotation by 40° of the whole belt in Westphalian times.     

Petrogenesis and tectonic significance of Jurassic IAT magma types in the Hellenide ophiolites as deduced from the Rhodiani ophiolites (Pelagonian zone, Greece)

The Rhodiani ophiolites are represented by two tectonically superimposed ophiolitic units: the “lower” Ultramafic unit and the “upper” Volcanic unit, both bearing calcareous sedimentary covers. The Ultramafic unit consists of mantle harzburgites with dunite pods and chromitite ores, and represents the typical mantle section of supra-subduction zone (SSZ) settings. The Volcanic unit is represented by a sheeted dyke complex overlain by a pillow and massive lava sequence, both including basalts, basaltic andesites, andesites, and dacites. Chemically, the Volcanic unit displays low-Ti affinity typical of island arc tholeiite (IAT) ophiolitic series from SSZ settings, having, as most distinctive chemical features, low Ti/V ratios (< 20) and depletion in high field strength elements and light rare earth elements.The rare earth element and incompatible element composition of the more primitive basaltic andesites from the Rhodiani ophiolites can be successfully reproduced with about 15% non-modal fractional melting of depleted lherzolites, which are very common in the Hellenide ophiolites. The calculated residua correspond to the depleted harzburgites found in the Rhodiani and Othrys ophiolites. Both field and chemical evidence suggest that the whole sequence of the Rhodiani Volcanic unit (from basalt to dacite) originated by low-pressure fractional crystallization under partially open-system conditions. The modelling of mantle source, melt generation, and mantle residua carried out in this paper provides new constraints for the tectono-magmatic evolution of the Mirdita–Pindos oceanic basin.     

Senescence- and death-related alteration of chlorophylls and carotenoids in marine phytoplankton

This report extends previous work ([Louda et al., 1998a] and [Louda et al., 1998b]. Chlorophyll degradation during senescence and death. Organic Geochemistry 29, 1233–1251.) in which we detailed type-I (alteration) and -II (destruction) degradation of chlorophyll with representative fresh water phytoplankton. The present study covers similar experiments with marine phytoplankton, namely, a cyanobacterium (“ANA” Anacystis sp), a coccolithophore (“COC” Coccolithophora sp.), a dinoflagellate (“GYM” Gymnodinium sp.) and two diatoms (“CYC” Cyclotella meneghiniana and “THAL” Thalassiosira sp.). Mg loss (‘pheophytinization') was rapid and continuous in all species under room-oxic conditions and slow or sporadic under anoxic conditions. The proportion of dephytylated pigments (pheophorbides-a, chlorophyllides-a), relative to the phytylated forms (chlorophyll-a, pheophytins-a), increased over the first year under room-oxic conditions and in room-anoxic conditions only in “CYC”. Pheophorbide-a was converted to pyropheophorbide-a within 15 months only in “THAL” and “ANA”, and slightly in “COC”. After 9–15 months of oxic incubation, “COC” was found to contain traces of purpurin-18 phytyl ester. Consideration of carotenoid pigments is also included herein. All fucoxanthin containing species, except “THAL”, exhibited conversion of fucoxanthin to fucoxanthinol in room-oxic conditions. Diadinoxanthin was rapidly de-epoxidized to give diatoxanthin within the first 2–4 weeks. Diatoxanthin then disappeared from all species by 15 months with a concurrent increase in a pigment which we tentatively identify as a cis-zeaxanthin. Incubations of pure cultures are found to be an effective way by which to model the early type-I reactions for both chlorophylls and carotenoids. The influence of oxygen during senescence-death and the onset of early diagenesis is of paramount importance. The absence of oxygen and, by inference, aerobic microbiota, retards the breakdown of these pigments dramatically.     

The optical features and hydrocarbon-generating model of “barkinite” from Late Permian coals in South China

Leping coal is known for its high content of “barkinite”, which is a unique liptinite maceral apparently found only in the Late Permian coals of South China. “Barkinite” has previously identified as suberinite, but on the basis of further investigations, most coal petrologists conclude that “barkinite” is not suberinite, but a distinct maceral. The term “barkinite” was introduced by (State Bureau of Technical Supervision of the People's Republic of China, 1991, GB 12937-91 (in Chinese)), but it has not been recognized by ICCP and has not been accepted internationally.In this paper, elemental analyses (EA), pyrolysis-gas chromatography, Rock-Eval pyrolysis and optical techniques were used to study the optical features and the hydrocarbon-generating model of “barkinite”. The results show that “barkinite” with imbricate structure usually occurs in single or multiple layers or in a circular form, and no definite border exists between the cell walls and fillings, but there exist clear aperture among the cells.“Barkinite” is characterized by fluorescing in relatively high rank coals. At low maturity of 0.60–0.80%R_o, “barkinite” shows strong bright orange–yellow fluorescence, and the fluorescent colors of different cells are inhomogeneous in one sample. As vitrinite reflectance increases up to 0.90%R_o, “barkinite” also displays strong yellow or yellow–brown fluorescence; and most of “barkinite” lose fluorescence at the maturity of 1.20–1.30%R_o. However, most of suberinite types lose fluorescence at a vitrinite reflectance of 0.50% Ro, or at the stage of high volatile C bituminous coal. In particular, the cell walls of “barkinite” usually show red color, whereas the cell fillings show yellow color under transmitted light. This character is contrary to suberinite.“Barkinite” is also characterized by late generation of large amounts of liquid oil, which is different from the early generation of large amounts of liquid hydrocarbon. In addition, “barkinite” with high hydrocarbon generation potential, high elemental hydrogen, and low carbon content. The pyrolysis products of “barkinite” are dominated by aliphatic compounds, followed by low molecular-weight aromatic compounds (benzene, toluene, xylene and naphthalene), and a few isoprenoids. The pyrolysis hydrocarbons of “barkinite” are mostly composed of light oil (C₆–C₁₄) and wet gas (C₂–C₅), and that heavy oil (C₁₅⁺) and methane (C₁) are the minor hydrocarbon.In addition, suberinite is defined only as suberinized cell walls—it does not include the cell fillings, and the cell lumens were empty or filled by corpocollinites, which do not show any fluorescence. Whereas, “barkinite” not only includes the cell walls, but also includes the cell fillings, and the cell fillings show bright yellow fluorescence.Since the optical features and the hydrocarbon-generating model of “barkinite” are quite different from suberinite. We suggest that “barkinite” is a new type of maceral.     

Hydrothermal deposition on the East Pacific rise at 21°N

In the spring of 1979, 350°C springs precipitating hydrothermal sulphides and sulphates directly on to the sea-floor were discovered on the crest of the East Pacific Rise (EPR) at 21°N by the astonished scientific party of the RISE submersible expedition. These hot springs are within a linear field of active and inactive hydrothermal vents extending 6 km along the rise axis. Typically the mineral deposits at EPR, 21°N consist of basal sulphide mounds surmounted by mineralized sulphide-sulphate edifices, or “chimneys”, reaching heights up to 13 m above the sea floor. The mounds rest directly on fresh basalt and cover areas up to 450 m². Chimneys atop mounds may be active or dead. The hottest active chimneys (350°C) spew forth fluids blackened by fine-grained sulphide precipitates, dominantly hexagonal pyrrhotite and iron-rich sphalerite. These “black smokers” are distinguished from cooler “white smoker” chimneys which are encrusted by worm tubes and emit milky fluids bearing amorphous silica, barite, and pyrite.     

Lithological facies identification in Iranian largest gas field: A comparative study of neural network methods

Determination of different facies in an underground reservoir with the aid of various applicable neural network methods can improve the reservoir modeling. Accordingly facies identification from well logs and cores data information is considered as the most prominent recent tasks of geological engineering. The aim of this study is to analyze and compare the five artificial neural networks (ANN) approaches with identification of various structures in a rock facies and evaluate their capability in contrast to the labor intensive conventional method. The selected networks considered are Backpropagation Neural Networks (BPNN), Radial Basis Function (RBF), Probabilistic Neural Networks (PNN), Competitive Learning (CL) and Learning Vector Quantizer (LVQ). All these methods have been applied in four wells of South Pars field, Iran. Data of three wells were employed for the networks training purpose and the fourth one was used to test and verify the trained network predictions. The results have demonstrated that all approaches have the ability of facies modeling with more than 65% of precision. According to the performed analysis, RBF, CL and LVQ methods could model the facies with the accuracy between 66 and 68 percent while PNN and BPNN techniques are capable of making predictions with more than 72% and 88.5% of precision, respectively. It can be concluded that the BPNN can generate most accurate results in comparison to the other type of networks but it is important to note that the other factors such as consuming the amount of time taken, simplicity and the less adjusted parameters as well as the acquired precisions should be considered. As a result, the model evaluation analysis used in this study can be useful for prospective surveys and cost benefit facies identification.     

Porphyry copper deposits of the CIS and the models of their formation

Deposits of the “porphyry” family (essentially porphyry copper and gold-porphyry copper, gold-bearing porphyry molybdenum-copper, gold-containing porphyry copper-molybdenum and porphyry molybdenum deposits) are associated in time and space with granitoid magmatism mainly in Phaerozoic volcano-plutonic belts. Whatever their age, the deposits belong to two types of belts: basaltic belts, representing axial zones of island arcs, or andesitic belts formed within active continental (Andean-type) margins.The petrochemistry of ore-bearing magmatism related to the nature of the substratum of volcano-plutonic belts, reveals a number of essential characteristics, both in composition and zonation of wallrock alteration and ore mineralization. These characterisics enabled previous researchers to establish four models of porphyry copper deposits based on their lithologic associations, e.g., “diorite”, “granodiorite”, “monzonite” and “granite”.Pophyry copper deposits are thought to be the product of self-generating “two-fluid mixing” ore-magmatic systems. Porphyry intrusions are pathways for energy and metals from deep-seated magma chambers, of which the upper mineralized parts are accessible for observation. The relationship between magmatic fluids and meteoric water participating in the ore-forming processes (dependent on the structural-petrophysical conditions of formation), provide a subdivision for the porphyry copper ore-magmatic systems into three types: “open”, “closed” and “transitional”.Concurrently, a common trend in the evolution of the systems has been established, from a nearly autoclave regime of structural-and ore-forming processes to a gradual increase in the importance of hydrothermal recycling. The completeness of the OMS (ore-magmatic system) development according to this scheme, which determines the existence of various OMS types, depends on many factors, the most important being the depth of formation of porphyry intrusive bodies, the petrophysical peculiarities of the host rocks and the palaeohydrogeological conditions of ore deposition.Although rock fracturing (especially defluidization: second boiling) and contraction are caused by the same mechanisms, the stockwork growth in “open” and “closed” systems, relative to the wall rock, takes place in opposite directions, primarily due to different petrophysical parameters of the near-stock environment.In “open” systems structural and ore metasomatic processes are finalized. Fractures extend progressively from porhyry stocks into the marginal parts of the intrusive framework and extension of large-scale recycling of magmatic and activated meteoric water, in the same direction, result in the formation of ore-bearing stockworks. These are large in all dimensions, cover mainly hanging-wall zones and are characterized by clearly defined concentric mineral zoning and extensive geochemical haloes.In a “closed” OMS with centripetal growing fractures, hydrothermal convection is stunted. The vertical extension of recycling cells is restricted and the volume of meteoric water involved in circulation during the period of ore deposition is relatively small. As a result, relatively small intra-intrusive lenticular stockworks are developed which are characterized by close co-existence of several generations of mineralization with fragmentary preservation of the earliest ones. These are characterized by the elements of “reverse” zoning, increased density of the veinlets and metal content, as well as poorly developed hanging-wall dispersion haloes.     

Gravity anomalies and dynamics of the Swiss Alps

An interpretation of the gravity observations in Switzerland is presented. The gravity anomalies are mainly caused by crustal effects. Taking 0.5 g/cm³ as the average density contrast between crust and upper mantle, the remaining positive residual field of + 50 mGal can be explained as the effect of the so-called “lithospheric root” underneath the Swiss Alps. This “root” must be considered as a relatively cold body with increased density. In order to calculate the thermally induced density distribution in the upper mantle, a kinematic and geothermal model has been constructed simulating the Alpine history for a time span covering the last 40 m.y.At the same time the moving lithospheric body (crustal uplift and subsidence of the lower lithosphere) is analysed from a dynamical point of view in order to test the kinematic conditions. The calculation leads to a mantle subsidence rate of 1 mm/y for the present period.     

Seismicity features of the caucasus in comparison with its tectonic structures

Various parameters of seismic field are considered for the Caucasian region. The most informative appeared to be the “sigma-Σ” parameter. A sketch map of the geotectonic zoning of the Caucasus is shown in which the σ parameter is represented by isolines for all periods under consideration. A comparative analysis of the values of the sigma-Σ parameter was conducted in each elemental area for three successive decades. Zones which are characterized by an unstable behaviour of the parameter can be distinguished.