The Precursory Meanings of the Deviation of the Magnitude- Frequency Distribution of Earthquakes from the Gutenberg- Richter Law

INTRODUCTIONThe famousformulalgN=a-bMwas put forward by Gutenbergand Richter (1944) ,accordinto seismicity studies in California . From then on, the magnitude-frequency distribution of thearthquakes within a certain area was considered one of the most important features of seismicity,anwas widely used (Tsuneji Rikitake ,1978 ;Li Shanbang,1981 ;Geng Luming,1993) .In particularthe coefficientbinthe formula is commonly appliedinresearchinto earthquake precursors relatingstrongearthquakes…     

巴塘地震台近震弱S波震级偏差研究

分析了2009年至2012年巴塘台测定的M_L≥3.0的近震共540个,计算出了它们与中国地震台网中心(CSN)发布的M_L震级之间的偏差,找出了巴塘台弱S波出现的区域。用相同标准震级,相等震中距的方法,找出了正常波形记录与弱S波波形记录之间的振幅比,计算出了弱S波地震的震级偏差程度,发现该台记录到的弱S波的比例高达46.5%,弱S波的震级偏差达0.7,其结果有利于地震震级测定的准确性.     

Gutenberg-Richter公式和灰色理论GM模型在地震预测中的联合应用

以华北地区 (33°～ 4 3°N ,10 9°～ 12 4°E)地震为例 ,用Gutenberg -Richter公式研究了地震均匀分布情况。结果表明 :自 1970年到 2 0 0 1年以来 ,本地区 2 0≤M <4 0的地震偏少、 4 0≤M <6 0的地震偏多、 6 0≤M<7 0的地震偏少、M≥ 7 0的地震偏多 ;然后择其将导致本地区较大社会影响、人员伤亡、经济损失的偏少地震——— 6 0≤M <7 0级地震进行灰色理论GM模型预测。通过上面的应用 ,使两理论优点在地震预测中得到结合 ,地震预测更有的放矢 ,预测结果更可信、更有效。     

The Effect of Regional Borders when Using the Gutenberg-Richter Model, Case Study: Western Anatolia

A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for Western Anatolia is presented using the Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) frequency-magnitude relation. Since the modeling is sensitive to the location of seismotectonics boundaries, to use the information content of the observed earthquake data, as a general rule the borders of the affected area are extended. In this study, the effect of the region’s definition on the G-R model is debated on the Western Anatolian region, which is one of the most seismically active and rapidly deforming regions of the world throughout the ages. Calculations are carried out for two subregions and one combined region as a whole using the seismic catalog from 1900 to 2005. The data sets are determined by the region’s borders with the parameters computed according to these data sets by the least-squares and maximum likelihood methods, and then future predictions are estimated via these parameters. Comparing the results with historical earthquake records, most appropriate regional borders for Western Anatolia are defined, and for this new region G-R model parameters are obtained.     

Aftershocks hazard in Italy Part I: Estimation of time-magnitude distribution model parameters and computation of probabilities of occurrence

We analyzed the available instrumental data on Italian earthquakes from1960 to 1996 to compute the parameters of the time-magnitudedistribution model proposed by Reasenberg and Jones (1989) andcurrently used to make aftershock forecasting in California. From 1981 to1996 we used the recently released Catalogo Strumentale deiTerremoti `Italiani' (CSTI) (Instrumental Catalog Working Group, 2001)joining the data of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia(INGV) and of the Italian major local seismic network, with magnituderevalued according to Gasperini (2001). From 1960 to 1980 we usedinstead the Progetto Finalizzato Geodinamica (PFG) catalog(Postpischl, 1985) with magnitude corrected to be homogeneous with thefollowing period. About 40 sequences are detected using two differentalgorithms and the results of the modeling for the corresponding ones arecompared. The average values of distribution parameters (p= 0.93±0.21, Log₁₀(c) = –1.53±0.54, b = 0.96±0.18 and a = –1.66±0.72) are in fair agreementwith similar computations performed in other regions of the World. We alsoanalyzed the spatial variation of model parameters that can be used topredict the sequence behavior in the first days of future Italian seismic crisis,before a reliable modeling of the ongoing sequence is available. Moreoversome nomograms to expeditiously estimate probabilities and rates ofaftershock in Italy are also computed.     

山西台网新国家标准震级标度与传统震级标度测定地方性震级的对比分析

选用2018年山西数字地震台网的观测资料,分别对新国家标准震级标度与传统震级标度测定的地方性震级进行了对比分析。结果表明,新国标ML震级与传统ML震级一致性较高,震级偏差在0.1之内。新国家标准震级标度很好地继承和衔接了传统震级标度,使用分区量规函数测定的ML单台震级偏差和平均标准偏差值均较小,新震级标度测定的近震震级更加准确。     

由构造分段求震级的历史回顾

回顾了由构造分段求震级的方法的发展及特点,介绍了由构造分段过渡到震级的两种定量方法,并就“方法” 中的有关问题做了进一步解释.     

云南地震台网震级对比研究

利用云南地震台网记录的云南及其周边地区2000～2017年的宽频带数字地震资料,按照新的震级国家标准《地震震级的规定》(GB17740-2017)的测定方法,使用同一套软件,对地方性震级M_L、面波震级M_S、宽频带面波震级M_S(BB)、短周期体波震级m_b、宽频带体波震级m_B(BB)和矩震级M_W重新进行人工测量。并分别用一般线性回归和正交回归方法,对不同震级之间的关系进行对比,给出它们之间的经验关系式。研究结果表明:(1)当M4.5时,各种震级之间相差不大,使用地方性震级M_L可以较好地表示地震的大小,也能够更加充分地反映区域特性;当4.5≤M8.0时,宽频带面波震级M_S(BB)和矩震级MW均能较好地表示地震的大小,但矩震级M_W的测定需要一定时间,因此在速报工作和大震应急中,可以使用M_S(BB)表示地震的大小; M_S(BB)的测定方法与国际接轨,消除0.2的震级偏差。(2)对于面波震级MS和宽频带面波震级M_S(BB),由于面波测量的位置、计算公式和量归函数不同,M_S比M_S(BB)系统偏高0.2左右;短周期体波震级mb较宽频带体波震级m_B(BB)整体偏小0.2左右,主要区别在于仿真模式。(3)宽频带面波震级M_S(BB)和宽频带体波震级m_B(BB)均在垂直向原始宽频带记录上直接测定,取消波形仿真环节,另外,相比测定m_B(BB)震中距要求大于5度,许多台站被限制,M_S(BB)更利于区域台网测定。(4)当3.5≤ML≤6.5时,M_L较M_W整体偏大; M_S≥3.5时,M_S也较M_W整体偏大,且均随着震级增加,偏差值呈上升趋势。(5)当M≥8.0时,面波震级出现饱和现象,使用矩震级M_W表示M≥8.0地震的大小。     

关于地震带震级概率分布与潜在震源区震级概率分布关系的讨论

作者依据地震震级与空间联合概率分布模型,讨论了地震带震级概率分布与潜在震源区震级概率分布之间的关系。研究结果表明,如果地震带内地震震级概率分布服从截断的指数分布,则带内必存在震级概率密度不服从截断指数分布的潜在震源区。这一结论与实际地震资料的统计结果和地质学研究中提出的“特征地震”的概念是一致的。作者认为,在地震活动性分析、地震区划和其他工程地震研究工作中必须考虑潜在震源区的震级概率分布和地震带震级概率分布之间的制约关系,以正确确定每个潜在震源区的震级概率分布。     

近场P波频谱分布及震级确定方法

通过研究国内12个4~7级地震的近场P波前3秒加速度波形记录的频谱分布, 我们发现, 对于较大的地震, 近场通常接收到的低频信息比较稳定, 尤其是1 Hz以下的信号。 通过对3秒初至P波震相加速度记录的低频窄带滤波及对传统震级公式的改造, 我们得到了4个低频段的震级计算公式M₁, M₂, M₃, M₄及预警震级计算结果M_n。 将其应用到日本13个4~7级的地震中, 并对比目前主流Pd震级计算方法, 我们的结果离散度与可靠性更好。 因此, 可认为我们得到的震级公式是较可靠的一种估算近场震级的方法, 并且可以应用到地震预警中。     

山西数字台网震级测定方法研究

震级是表示地震本身大小的一个量度,也是地震的基本参数之一。利用山西数字测震台网2009-2016年ML≥3.5以上宽频带数字地震资料,对近震震级ML、面波震级MS、宽频带面波震级Ms(BB)和矩震级Mw的震级测定方法进行讨论研究和对比,认为新震级标度能发挥宽频带数字地震资料的优越性,有利于资料的交换利用及对外发布。     

Discussion on the Relationship between Different Earthquake Magnitude Scales and the Effect of Seismic Station Sites on Magnitude Estimation

Based on the earthquake catalog reported by the Chinese digital seismic network in recent years, we select the earthquakes with both surface wave magnitude and local magnitude and fit them into a relationship between the two magnitudes. The systematic difference is found from the formula which has been used for 30 years. Because of a large dynamic range and wide frequency range of the current digital observation system, in addition to a larger number of stations and earthquakes being used compared to before, the relation obtained in this paper seems more reliable. Our calculation shows that there is no significant difference before and after magnitude conversion so we suggest the abandonment of magnitude conversion. The site response of a station consists of amplification at different frequencies. The amplification is equal to about 1 and changes little with frequency at stations located on basement rock, and it is greater than 1 at low frequency ranges and less than 1 at high frequency ranges at stations located on sediment layers. The difference between magnitudes from single station located on sediment layer and the average magnitude from the whole network increases from negative to positive with period. It seems that there is no fixed station correction factor and the station correction method does not work to improve the accuracy and magnitude estimates.     

首都圈地震活动完整性震级时空分布特征研究

根据首都圈活动构造展布特征,将首都圈划分为西区、中区、东区三个地区,采用拟合效果测试法计算首都圈及各分区1 970年以来最小完整性震级随时间的变化,并且依据各研究区域随时间的变化特征,将各研究区域从时间上划分为三个研究时段,分别研究各时段最小完整性震级的空间分布特征.研究表明,各时段的最小完整性震级在空间上具有明显的差异性,而且2000年以来各研究区域的最小完整性震级趋于稳定,MC均能控制在ML2.0以内.     

基于Gutenberg-Richter定律快速估算最大余震震级:以2017年九寨沟MS7.0地震为例

针对九寨沟M_S7.0地震之后不同时间段的余震序列目录,利用推定最大余震震级,给出了实际最大余震震级的估计值。结果表明,推定最大余震震级随主震后时间尺度的延长而趋于稳定,且该值与实际发生的最大余震的震级一致。需要强调的是,就九寨沟地震序列而言,当余震数据较为完备时,采用主震后较短时间段内（1～2天）的余震目录就可以较准确地估算出主震区域内可能发生的最大余震震级。实际上,主震后12h（0.5天）的余震数据已完全可以给出最大余震震级的有效下限。此外,计算中我们采用了里氏震级M_L和面波震级M_S的余震目录,结果显示,2种震级类型目录的估算结果完全一致,表明利用推定最大余震震级估算实际最大余震震级的方法不受震级类型的影响。据此,该最大余震震级快速评估方法可进一步推广应用于我国大陆地区中强震后强余震灾害分析评估中。目前的拟合技术也显示出随着测震技术的不断进步以及余震识别能力的提高,快速评估方法可以在主震后短时间（<1天）内准确地预测可能发生的最大余震震级。     

Discussion on the Relation Between the Probabilistic Distribution of Magnitude in a Seismic Province and That in an Area with Potential Seismic Source

According to the joint probabilistic distribution model of magnitude and space,the author discusses the relationship between the probabilistic distribution of magnitude in a seismic province and that in an area with potential seismic sources.The results show that if the magnitude probabilistic distribution follows the truncated exponential form in a seismic province,there must be some potential source in which the magnitude probabilistic distribution does not conform to that form.The result is consistent with the concept of "characteristic earthquake" derived from the study of actual records of seismicity and the study of geology.The author suggests that the relationship between the probabilistic distribution of magnitude in a seismic province and that in a seismic potential area must be considered in the study of the analysis of seismicity,seismic zonation and engineering seismology,for the purpose of the evaluation of the probabilistic distribution of magnitude correctly in every area with potential s     

The Random Distribution of the Loading and Unloading Response Ratio Under the Assumptions of Poisson Models

This paper discussed the random distribution of the loading and unloading response ratio(LURR) of different definitions(Y_1～Y_5)using the assumptions that the earthquakes occurfollowing the Poisson process and their magnitudes obey the Gutenberg-Richter law.Theresults show that Y_1～Y_5 are quite stable or concentrated when the expected number of eventsin the calculation time window is relatively large(>40);but when this occurrence ratebecomes very small,Y_2～Y_5 become quite variable or unstable.That is to say,a high value ofthe LURR can be produced not only from seismicity before a large earthquake,but also from arandom sequence of earthquakes that obeys a Poisson process when the expected number ofevents in the window is too small.To check the influence of randomness in the catalogue tothe LURR,the random distribution of the LURR under Poisson models has been calculated bysimulation.90%,95% and 99% confidence ranges of Y_1 and Y_3 are given in this paper,which is helpful to quantify the random influe     

FBS-3，JCZ-1数字地震仪记录震级的误差分析

利用延边地震台两套数字地震仪,分别对100个地震的震级与标准震级作了比较,可以看出,JCZ-1地震仪具有明显的优势。以往研究主要比较模拟和数字地震仪的震级偏差,本文针对不同的数字地震仪,讨论了两者差别,得出了延边地震台的远震震级校正参数。     

Numerical modeling of block structure dynamics: dependence of a synthetic earthquake flow on the structure separateness and boundary movements

A seismically active region is modelled as a system of absolutely rigid blocks separated by infinitely thin plane faults. The interaction of the blocks along the fault planes and with the underlying medium is viscous-elastic. The system of blocks moves as a consequence of prescribed motion of the boundary blocks and of the underlying medium. When for some part of a fault plane the ratio of the stress to the pressure exceeds a certain strength level a stress-drop (a failure) occurs (in accordance with the dry friction model), and it can cause a failure in other parts of the fault planes. In the model the failures represent earthquakes. As a result of the numerical simulation a synthetic earthquake catalog is produced. The numerical modelling was carried out for three types of structures with increasing of the structure separateness inside of each type and for two types of boundary movements. A synthetic earthquake flow is characterised by several features including the frequency-magnitude relation (the Gutenberg-Richter curve). When the structure separateness increases the slope of the curve changes monotonously in the same direction for all considered types of structures if the boundary movement is the same. The directions of changing of the slope are opposite for two considered boundary movements.     

中亚地震目录震级转换及其完整性分析

为编制能够应用于地震危险性分析的中亚地区统一震级标度为矩震级的地震目录,从国际地震中心（ISC）下载得到该地区1907-2012年的地震数据,该数据包含众多机构不同震级标度的地震记录.以MW,GCMT为参考机构震级标度,并用最小二乘法拟合了其他机构震级标度与MW,GCMT之间的转换关系.在挑选某次地震事件的唯一震级记录时,以对应转换关系的相关系数大且剩余标准差小为准则进行筛选.对于少量没有震级转换关系或者拟合优度过差的地震记录,使用间接转换关系或者全球转换关系予以补充转换.震级转换后,用时空窗法删除前余震,并考虑构造环境和地震活动水平的空间差异性将研究区划分成5个子区域.采用地震记录时间累积曲线法、最大曲率法（MAXC）和拟合优度检验法（GFT）综合分析各个分区的最小完整震级（MC）,并在此基础上用极大似然法拟合相应的地震活动性参数.结果表明,每种完整性分析方法各具一定的优缺点,但采用综合分析的方法能够得出最佳的MC.地震记录时间累积曲线法能分析出高质量地震目录的起始时间,以作为后两种方法的基础,但容易受到地震活动水平随时间波动的影响.由于研究区目录质量较差,最大曲率法误差过大以至于只能作为其他方法的补充,拟合优度检验法的GFT参数也普遍只能达到80％左右.GFT最大值点可能并不对应MC,但是MC通常都在GFT极大值点取得.5个分区1964-2012年的MC普遍在Mw4.8左右,b值在1.136-1.514之间波动.     

An Overview of the Study on Stress Magnitude

Crustal stress field holds an important position in geodynamics research, such as in plate motion simulations, uplift of the Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) Plateau and earthquake preparation and occurrence. However, most of the crustal stress studies emphasize particularly on the determination of stress direction, with little study being done on stress magnitude at present. After reviewing ideas on a stress magnitude study from geological, geophysical and various other aspects, a method to estimate the stress magnitude in the source region according to the deflection of stress direction before and after large earthquakes and the stress drop tensor of earthquake rupture has been developed. The proposed method can also be supplemented by the average apparent stress before and after large earthquakes. The stress direction deflection before and after large earthquakes can be inverted by massive focal mechanisms of foreshocks and aftershocks and the stress drop field generated by the seismic source can be calculated by the detailed distribution of the earthquakes rupture. The mathematical relationship can then be constructed between the stress drop field, where its magnitude and direction are known and the stress tensor before and after large earthquakes, where its direction is known but magnitude is unknown, thereby obtaining the stress magnitude. The average apparent stress before and after large earthquakes can be obtained by using the catalog of broadband radiated energy and seismic moment tensor of foreshocks and aftershocks and the different responses to stress drops. This relationship leads to another estimation of stress magnitude before a large earthquake. The stress magnitude and its error are constrained by combining the two methods, which provide new constraints for the geodynamics study.