Resampling methods for evaluating the uncertainty of the nonparametric magnitude distribution estimation in the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

The cumulative distribution function (CDF) of magnitude of seismic events is one of the most important probabilistic characteristics in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA). The magnitude distribution of mining induced seismicity is complex. Therefore, it is estimated using kernel nonparametric estimators. Because of its model-free character the nonparametric approach cannot, however, provide confidence interval estimates for CDF using the classical methods of mathematical statistics.To assess errors in the seismic events magnitude estimation, and thereby in the seismic hazard parameters evaluation in the nonparametric approach, we propose the use of the resampling methods. Resampling techniques applied to a one dataset provide many replicas of this sample, which preserve its probabilistic properties. In order to estimate the confidence intervals for the CDF of magnitude, we have developed an algorithm based on the bias corrected and accelerated method (BC_a method). This procedure uses the smoothed bootstrap and second-order bootstrap samples. We refer to this algorithm as the iterated BC_a method. The algorithm performance is illustrated through the analysis of Monte Carlo simulated seismic event catalogues and actual data from an underground copper mine in the Legnica–Głogów Copper District in Poland.The studies show that the iterated BC_a technique provides satisfactory results regardless of the sample size and actual shape of the magnitude distribution.     

Geostatistical Evaluation of the Mechanical Properties of Rock Mass for TBM Tunnelling by Seismic Reflection Method

Summary. The evaluation of the rock mass mechanical properties by the seismic reflection method and TBM driving is proposed for TBM tunnelling. The relationship between the reflection number derived from the three-dimensional seismic reflection method and the rock strength index (RSI) derived from TBM driving data is examined, and the methodology of conversion from the reflection number to the RSI is proposed. Furthermore a geostatistical prediction methodology to provide a three-dimensional geotechnical profile ahead of the tunnel face is proposed. The performance of this prediction method is verified by actual field data.     

Probabilistic seismic and tsunami hazard analysis for design criteria development of a coastal area in the city of Banda Aceh

Both seismic and tsunami hazards design criteria are essential input to the rehabilitation and long-term development of city of Banda Aceh Post Sumatra 2004 (M _w=9.3) disaster. A case study to develop design criteria for future disaster mitigation of the area is presented. The pilot study consists of probabilistic seismic and tsunami hazard analysis. Results of the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis indicates that peak ground acceleration at baserock for 10 and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years is 0.3 and 0.55 g, respectively. The analysis also provides spectral values at short (T=0.2 s) and long period (T=1.0 s) motions. Some non-linear time-domain earthquake response analyses for soft, medium, and hard site-class were conducted to recommend design response spectra for each site-class. In addition, tsunami inundation maps generated from probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis were developed through tsunami wave propagation analysis and run-up numerical modeling associated with its probability of tsunamigenic earthquake source potential. Both the seismic and tsunami hazard curve and design criteria are recommended as contribution of this study for design criteria, as part of the disaster mitigation effort in the development process of the city. The methodology developed herein could be applied to other seismic and tsunami disaster potential areas.     

Characteristics of ring seismicity in different depth ranges before large and great earthquakes in the Sumatra region

Characteristics of the seismicity in depth ranges 0–33 and 34–70 km before ten large and great (M _w = 7.0−9.0) earthquakes of 2000–2008 in the Sumatra region are studied, as are those in the seismic gap zones where no large earthquakes have occurred since at least 1935. Ring seismicity structures are revealed in both depth ranges. It is shown that the epicenters of the main seismic events lie, as a rule, close to regions of overlap or in close proximity to “shallow” and “deep” rings. Correlation dependences of ring sizes and threshold earthquakes magnitudes on energy of the main seismic event in the ring seismicity regions are obtained. Identification of ring structures in the seismic gap zones (in the regions of Central and South Sumatra) suggests active processes of large earthquake preparation proceed in the region. The probable magnitudes of imminent seismic events are estimated from the data on the seismicity ring sizes.     

Extension of global creepex definition (Ms-mb) to local studies (Md-ML): the case of the Italian region

Creepex, defined as the systematic deviation of the magnitude of a single earthquake from the linear orthogonal regression between local magnitude M_L and coda duration magnitude M_d, calculated for the whole region, is used as a measure of the frequency content of the seismic sources in the Italian region. Predominantly high-frequency events are found in the two areas of Quaternary tectonic shortening in North-Central Italy and in the Calabrian Arc. This result, confirmed by two independent statistical tests, is in agreement with the global pattern obtained from the study of the regression between body-wave magnitude, m_b, and surface-wave magnitude M_s: systematic shift to high frequencies in the energy release of seismic sources located in subduction zones and to low frequencies in zones of spreading. The analysis of the correlation between the patterns of heat flow and of seismic source spectral properties indicates that these source properties, in general, do not reflect thermal conditions in the lithosphere, but rather represent the result of tectonic processes.     

Seismic attenuation of coda waves in the eastern region of Cuba

Cuba's seismic attenuation had never been studied in detail. In this paper we present the results of the research on the seismic attenuation of Cuba's eastern zone based upon the information collected by the seismological Cuban network from 1998 to 2003. 581 earthquakes were selected from the Cuban catalogue to make this study. All of them, recorded by at least three seismic stations, had their epicenters located in the eastern Cuban region (19.3–22 N, 79–73 W), epicentral distances between 15 km and 213 km, their coda duration magnitudes ranging from 2 and 4.1 and their focal depths reaching up to 30 km. The seismic wave attenuation was studied using coda waves. The single scattering method proposed by Sato in 1977 was applied, the attenuation and frequency dependency for different paths and the correlation of the results with the geotectonics of the region are presented in this paper.The mean Q_c value calculated was Q_c = (64 ± 2)f^{0.84 ± 0.01}. The relatively low Q₀ and the high frequency dependency agree with the values of a region characterized by a high tectonic activity. The Q_c values of seven subregions of eastern Cuba were calculated and correlated with the geology and tectonics of the area.     

Seismic slip rates,potential subsurface rupture areas and seismic potential of the Vienna Basin Transfer Fault

The Vienna Basin Transfer Fault (VBTF) is a slow active fault with moderate seismicity (I _max~8–9, M _max~5.7) passing through the most vulnerable regions of Austria and Slovakia. We use different data to constrain the seismic potential of the VBTF including slip values computed from the seismic energy release during the 20th century, geological data on fault segmentation and a depth-extrapolated 3-D model of a generalized fault surface, which is used to define potential rupture zones. The seismic slip of the VBTF as a whole is in the range of 0.22–0.31 mm/year for a seismogenic fault thickness of 8 km. Seismic slip rates for individual segments vary from 0.00 to 0.77 mm/year. Comparing these data to geologically and GPS-derived slip velocities (>1 mm/year) proofs that the fault yields a significant seismic slip deficit. Segments of the fault with high seismic slip contrast from segments with no slip representing locked segments. Fault surfaces of segments within the seismogenic zone (4–14 km depth) vary from 55 to 400 km². Empirical scaling relations show that these segments are sufficiently large to explain both, earthquakes observed in the last centuries, and the 4th century Carnuntum earthquake, for which archeo-seismological data suggest a magnitude of M ≥ 6. Based on the combination of all data (incomplete earthquake catalog, seismic slip deficits, locked segments, potential rupture areas, indications of strong pre-catalog earthquakes) we argue, that the maximum credible earthquake for the VBTF is in the range M _max = 6.0–6.8, significantly larger than the magnitude of the strongest recorded events (M = 5.7).     

Double-planed deep seismic zone and anomalous structure in the upper mantle beneath northeastern Honshu (Japan)

Seismicity located by using the most recent data obtained from the high-gain seismograph network of Tohoku University shows that the deep seismic zone beneath northeastern Honshu, Japan, is composed of two thin planes which are parallel to each other and are 30–40 km apart. Focal mechanisms derived from the earthquakes in the upper plane are reverse-faulting, or, some of them, down-dip compression. As a contrast, those in the lower plane are down-dip extension. The location of the upper boundary of the descending lithospheric slab, inferred from the arrival-time difference between ScS and ScSp waves and from the travel-time anomaly of intermediate-depth earthquakes observed at the small-scale seismic array, coincides exactly with the upper plane of the double-planed deep seismic zone. Anelasticity (1/Q) structure of the upper mantle consists of three distinct zones: a high-Q (Qs− 1500) inclined lithospheric slab, an intennediate-Q (Qs−350) land-side mantle between the Pacific coast and the volcanic front, and a low-Q (Qs − 100) land-side mantle between the volcanic front and the coast of the Japan Sea.The evidence obtained here provides valuable information as to the definition of the type of mechanism producing the plate motion beneath island arcs.     

K0 estimation in level granular soil from anisotropic wave velocities on the basis of micromechanics

This study aims to explore the possibility for estimating K₀ in a level ground of granular soil by seismic methods on the basis of micromechanics theory. The idea was to simulate in situ cross‐hole seismic method for the measurement of wave velocities along various directions of wave‐propagation. This work made use of a field simulator to control a K₀ condition (zero lateral strain condition) in specimens. A series of vertical loading containing subsequent loading and unloading were applied to the specimen prepared by pluviation. In general, the K₀ values determined experimentally in this work agreed with the exiting empirical relations. K₀ value was also calibrated from measured anisotropic wave velocities using an optimization procedure. From the comparison of the back‐calculated and measured results of K₀, it revealed the feasibility for the determination of the in situ lateral stress in granular soil by seismic methods and on the basis of micromechanics theory as long as enough wave‐velocity measurements along various directions of wave‐propagation were available. The potential for the usage of the presented methodology for the determination of the in situ lateral stress in level‐ground of granular soil by seismic methods seems encouraging. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Magnitude conversion problem for the Turkish earthquake data

Earthquake catalogues which form the main input in seismic hazard analysis generally report earthquake magnitudes in different scales. Magnitudes reported in different scales have to be converted to a common scale while compiling a seismic data base to be utilized in seismic hazard analysis. This study aims at developing empirical relationships to convert earthquake magnitudes reported in different scales, namely, surface wave magnitude, M _S, local magnitude, M _L, body wave magnitude, m _b and duration magnitude, M _d, to the moment magnitude (M _w). For this purpose, an earthquake data catalogue is compiled from domestic and international data bases for the earthquakes occurred in Turkey. The earthquake reporting differences of various data sources are assessed. Conversion relationships are established between the same earthquake magnitude scale of different data sources and different earthquake magnitude scales. Appropriate statistical methods are employed iteratively, considering the random errors both in the independent and dependent variables. The results are found to be sensitive to the choice of the analysis methods.     

Possible periodicities of the annually released global seismic energy (M 7.9) during the period 1898–1971

In the present paper a study is made of the annually released global seismic energy E_s (M 7.9). Corresponding M magnitudes were taken from the catalogues published by Duda (1965) and by Båth and Duda (1965). Periodicities of 180, 25, 12.5 and 4-years were used to express analytically the annual values of the globally released seismic energy E_s.     

Effects of Near-Surface Absorption on Reflection Characteristics of Continental Interbedded Strata: the Dagang Oilfield as an Example

<正>Due to the effects of seismic wave field interference,the reflection events generated from interbedded and superposed sand and shale strata no longer have an explicit corresponding relationship with the geological interface.The absorption of the near-surface layer decreases the resolution of the seismic wavelet,intensifies the interference of seismic reflections from different sand bodies,and makes seismic data interpretation of thin interbedded strata more complex and difficult. In order to concretely investigate and analyze the effects of the near-surface absorption on seismic reflection characteristics of interbedded strata,and to make clear the ability of current technologies to compensate the near-surface absorption,a geological model of continental interbedded strata with near-surface absorption was designed,and the prestack seismic wave field was numerically simulated with wave equations.Then,the simulated wave field was processed by the prestack tune migration, the effects of near-surface absorption on prestack and poststack reflection characteristics were analyzed,and the near-surface absorption was compensated for by inverse Q-filtering.The model test shows that:(1) the reliability of prediction and delineation of a continental reservoir with AVO inversion is degraded due to the lateral variation of the near-surface structure;(2) the corresponding relationships between seismic reflection events and geological interfaces are further weakened as a result of near-surface absorption;and(3) the current technology of absorption compensation probably results in false geological structure and anomaly.Based on the model experiment,the real seismic data of the Dagang Oil Field were analyzed and processed.The seismic reflection characteristics of continental interbedded strata were improved,and the reliability of geological interpretation from seismic data was enhanced.     

Some source and medium properties of the Vrancea seismic region, Romania

Simple spectral theory of seismic sources was used to determine source parameters directly related to medium properties (stress drop, seismic efficiency and fracture energy) and quality factors of the Vrancea (Romania) seismic region. The results show an increase in maximum static stress drop, maximum seismic efficiency and fracture energy with depth. The seismic efficiency is magnitude independent, but the stress drop is magnitude independent only for events with M_L > 3.8; below this value, the logarithm of stress drop increases quasi-linearly with magnitude. In the depth interval 50–160 km the stress drop increases with a slope of about 2–3 bar/km. The fracture energy per unit area of the fault has values of the order of 10⁵–10⁸ erg/cm².The frequency independent quality factors indicate that the attenuation of P waves is generally higher than that of S waves and that Q_p values are in agreement with recent tectonic models for the Vrancea region: total decoupling of the slab now sinking gravitationally is present only in the southwestern part of the Vrancea region, as suggested by the spatial position of intermediate depth hypocenters.     

Application of the Spatially Smoothed Seismicity and Monte Carlo Methods to Estimate the Seismic Hazard of Eritrea and the Surrounding Region

The region of interest is characterized by incomplete data sets and little information about the tectonic features. Therefore, two methodologies for estimating seismic hazard were used in order to elucidate the robustness of the results: the method of spatially smoothed seismicity introduced by Frankel (1995) and later extended by Lapajne et al. (1997) and a Monte Carlo approach presented by Ebel and Kafka (1999). In the first method, fault-rupture oriented elliptical Gaussian smoothing was performed to estimate future activity rates along the causative structures. Peak ground accelerations were computed for a grid size of 15 km × 415 km assuming the centre of the grids as epicentres, from which the seismic hazard map was produced. The attenuation relationship by Ambraseys et al. (1996) was found suitable for the region under study. PGA values for 10% probability of exceedence in 50 years (return period of 475 years) were computed for each model and a combined seismic hazard map was produced by subjectively assigning weights to each of these models. A worst-case map is also obtained by picking the highest value at each grid point from values of the four hazard maps. The Monte Carlo method is used to estimate seismic hazard, for comparison to the results from our previous approach. Results obtained from both methods are comparable except values in the first set of maps estimate greater hazard in areas of low seismicity. Both maps indicate a higher hazard along the main tectonic features of the east African and Red Sea rift systems. Within Eritrea, the highest PGA exceeded a value 25% of g, located north of Red Sea port of Massawa. In areas around the capital, Asmara, PGA values exceed 10% of g.     

The effect of reservoir length on seismic performance of gravity dams to near- and far-fault ground motions

In this article, the effect of reservoir length on seismic performance of gravity dams to near- and far-fault ground motions is investigated. For this purpose, four finite element models of dam–reservoir–foundation interaction system are prepared by using the Lagrangian approach. In these models, the reservoir length varies from H to 4H (H: the height of dam). The Folsom gravity dam is selected as a numerical application. Two different ground motion records of 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake are used in the analyses. One of ground motions is recorded in near fault; the other is recorded in far fault. Also, the two records have the same peak ground acceleration. The study mainly consists of three parts to assess the effects of reservoir length on the seismic performance of the concrete gravity dam. In the first part, the linear time-history analyses of the four finite element models prepared for the Folsom gravity dam are performed. In the second part, the seismic performance of the dam is evaluated according to demand–capacity ratio and cumulative inelastic duration. Finally, the nonlinear time-history analyses of the finite element models of the dam are carried out by using Drucker–Prager yield criteria for dam concrete. It is seen from the analyses results that the seismic behavior of the concrete gravity dams is considerably affected from the length of the reservoir. The reservoir length of 3H is adequate for concrete gravity dams. The selection of ground motion is on of the important parts of seismic evaluation of gravity dams. Also, the frequency characteristics of the ground motion having the same peak ground acceleration affect the seismic performance of the dam. The near-fault ground motions are generally creates more stress on the dam body than far-fault ground motions. The used performance approach provides a systematic methodology for assessment of the seismic performance and necessity of nonlinear analyses for dam systems.     

Near-surface earthquakes in the Baltic shield, notably Sweden

A recent series of Swedish earthquakes at a focal depth not exceeding 2–3 km, the largest with I_O = V + (MSK scale) andM_L = 3.2 shows that relatively strong seismic activity can occur in the uppermost part of the Baltic Shield. During the last 15 years several near-surface earthquakes have occurred in this region, as indicated by recorded Rg-waves and/or macroseismic data. Many events are located along the coast of central Sweden, suggesting a seismic belt of minor, near-surface activity, which should be considered in connection with the radioactive waste storage in the Swedish bedrock. The appearance of Rg, common in seismic records of explosions and rockbursts, is not a sufficient discriminator between artificial events and earthquakes.     

Recent plate tectonics of the Arctic Basin and of northeastern Asia

The recent tectonics of the Arctic Basin and northeastern Asia are considered as a result of interaction between three lithospheric plates: North-America, Eurasia and Spitsbergen. Seismic zones (coinciding in the Norway-Greenland basin with the Kolbeinsey, Mohns and Knipovich ridges, and in the Arctic Ocean with the Gakkel Ridge) clearly mark the boundaries between them. In southernmost Svalbard (Spitsbergen), the secondary seismic belt deviates from the major seismic zone. This belt continues into the seismic zone of the Franz Josef Land and then merges into the seismic zone of the Gakkel Ridge at 70°–90°E. The smaller Spitsbergen plate is located between the major seismic zone and its secondary branch.Within northeastern Asia, earthquake epicenters with magnitude over 4.5 are concentrated within a 300-km wide belt crossing the Eurasian continent over a distance of 3000 km from the Lena estuary to the Komandorskye Islands. A single seismic belt crosses the northern sections of the Verkhoyansky Ridge and runs along the Chersky Ridge to the Kolymo-Okhotsk Divide.To compute the poles of relative rotation of the Eurasian, North-American and Spitsbergen plates we use 23 new determinations of focal-mechanism solutions for earthquakes, and 38 azimuths of slip vectors obtained by matching of symmetric mountain pairs on both sides of the Knipovich and Gakkel ridges; we also use 14 azimuths of strike-slip faults within the Chersky Ridge determined by satellite images. The following parameters of plate displacement were obtained: Eurasia/North America: 62.2°N, 140.2°E (from the Knipovich Ridge section south of the triple junction); 61.9°N, 143.1°E (from fault strikes in the Chersky Ridge); 60.42°N, 141.56°C (from the Knipovich section and from fault strikes in the Chersky Ridge); 59.48°N, 140.83°E, α = 1.89 · 10⁻⁷ deg/year (from the Knipovich section, from fault strikes in the Chersky Ridge and from the Gakkel Ridge section east of the triple junction). The rate was calculated by fitting the 2′ magnetic lineations within the Gakkel Ridge).North-America/Spitsbergen: 70.96°N, 121.18°E, α = −2.7 · 10⁻⁷ deg/year from the Knipovich Ridge section north of the triple junction, from earthquakes in the Spitsbergen fracture zone and from the Gakkel Ridge section west of the triple junction). Eurasia/Spitsbergen: 70.7°N, 25.49°E, α = −0.99 · 10⁻⁷ deg/year (from closure of vector triangles).     

Multi‐genetic origin of the continental Moho: insights from Lithoprobe

This paper reviews four hypotheses for the origin of the continental crust–mantle boundary and discusses seismic parameters with which these hypotheses might be tested. The relict Moho hypothesis posits that the oceanic Moho is preserved during continental assembly; the magmatic underplating hypothesis posits formation of a new Moho by episodic emplacement of sill‐like intrusive bodies; the metamorphic (or metasomatic) front hypothesis posits that the Moho is overprinted by a phase transformation; and the regional décollement hypothesis posits that the Moho behaves as a structural detachment. These hypotheses are not mutually exclusive, and examples from the Canadian Lithoprobe program suggest that all four may be applicable in different regions of North America. Comparison of seismic images from a fossil subduction zone with modern subduction at Cascadia suggests that serpentinization of the forearc mantle, a previously unrecognized mechanism for overprinting and erasing the reflection Moho, may have occurred in the Proterozoic.     

Upper bound solutions of bearing capacity of strip footing by pseudo-dynamic approach

This paper presents the pseudo-dynamic analysis of seismic bearing capacity of a strip footing using upper bound limit analysis. However, in the literature, the pseudo-static approach was frequently used by several researchers to compute the seismic bearing capacity factor theoretically, where the real dynamic nature of the earthquake accelerations cannot be considered. Under the seismic conditions, the values of the unit weight component of bearing capacity factor N _γE are determined for different magnitudes of soil friction angle, soil amplification and seismic acceleration coefficients both in the horizontal and vertical directions. The results obtained from the present study are shown both graphically as well as in the tabular form. It is observed that the bearing capacity factor N _γE decreases significantly with the increase in seismic accelerations and amplification. The results are thoroughly compared with the existing values in the literature and the significance of the present methodology for designing the shallow footing is discussed.     

Do seismic slip deficits indicate an underestimated earthquake potential along the Vienna Basin Transfer Fault System?

Seismic slip rates of about 0.2 mm yr^?1 calculated from cumulative seismic moments of earthquakes along the Vienna Basin Transfer Fault (VBTF) between the Alps and the Carpathians are very low compared to geologically and geodetically determined slip rates of 1–2 mm yr^?1, proving a significant seismic slip deficit. Additional seismic slip calculations for arbitrarily selected fault sectors reveal large differences along strike ranging from c. 0.02 to 0.5 mm slip yr^?1. As the earthquake frequency distribution suggests seismically coupled deformation, these variations might indicate locked fault segments. Results suggest that (1) the seismic cycle of the VBTF exceeds the length of available seismological observation, and (2) larger earthquakes than those recorded may occur along the fault. Thus, current local seismic hazard estimates, which are solely based on this historical database, probably underestimate the earthquake potential of the fault system.