Near-infrared spectral monitoring of Triton with IRTF/SpeX II: Spatial distribution and evolution of ices

This report arises from an ongoing program to monitor Neptune’s largest moon Triton spectroscopically in the 0.8 to 2.4 μm range using IRTF/SpeX. Our objective is to search for changes on Triton’s surface as witnessed by changes in the infrared absorption bands of its surface ices N₂,CH₄,H₂O, CO, and CO₂. We have recorded infrared spectra of Triton on 53 nights over the ten apparitions from 2000 to 2009. The data generally confirm our previously reported diurnal spectral variations of the ice absorption bands (Grundy and Young, 2004). Nitrogen ice shows a large amplitude variation, with much stronger absorption on Triton’s Neptune-facing hemisphere. We present evidence for seasonal evolution of Triton’s N₂ ice: the 2.15 μm absorption band appears to be diminishing, especially on the Neptune-facing hemisphere. Although it is mostly dissolved in N₂ ice, Triton’s CH₄ ice shows a very different longitudinal variation from the N₂ ice, challenging assumptions of how the two ices behave. Unlike Triton’s CH₄ ice, the CO ice does exhibit longitudinal variation very similar to the N₂ ice, implying that CO and N₂ condense and sublimate together, maintaining a consistent mixing ratio. Absorptions by H₂O and CO₂ ices show negligible variation as Triton rotates, implying very uniform and/or high latitude spatial distributions for those two non-volatile ices.     

Methane on Triton: Physical state and distribution

Infrared spectrophotometric measurements of Neptune's satellite Triton obtained between 1980 and 1982 in the spectral range 0.8–2.5 μm show six individual absorption bands attributable to methane. An additional band in the Triton data is not methane. The Triton spectral data conform more closely to a laboratory spectrum of frozen methane than to a synthetic spectrum of methane gas computed for conditions of low temperature expected at the satellite. Additionally, the strength of the bands vary with Triton's orbital position. The data thus suggest that methane in the ice phase is mostly responsible for the bands in Triton's spectrum, and that the ice is distributed nonuniformly around the satellite's surface.     

Constraints on bulk composition,seasonal variation,and global dynamics of Pluto's atmosphere

Cosmic abundance, vapor pressure, and molecular weight considerations restrict the likely gas candidates for Pluto's atmosphere to Ne, N₂, CO, O₂, and Ar, in addition to the already detected CH₄. The vapor pressures and cosmic abundances of these gases indicate that all except Ne should be saturated in Pluto's atmosphere. The vapor pressure of Ne is so high that the existence of solid or liquid Ne on Pluto's surface is very unlikely; cosmic abundance arguments imply that Ne cannot attain saturation in Pluto's atmosphere. At both perihelion, N₂ should dominate the saturated gases. CO₂ should have the next highest mixing ratio, followed by O₂ and Ar. CH₄ should have the smallest mixing ratio. Because vapor pressures of these gases vary with temperature at diverse rates, the bulk and constituent mixing ratios of Pluto's atmosphere should vary with season. Between perihelion and aphelion, the column abundance of CH₄ may change by a factor of 260 while that of N₂ changes by only a factor of 52. The potential seasonal variation of Pluto's atmosphere was investigated by considering the behavior of these gases when individually mixed with CH₄. The effects of diurnal and latitudinal variation of insolation and eclipses on the atmosphere also were investigated. Seasonal effects are shown to dominate. It was shown that the atmospheric bulk may not be a minimum near aphelion but rather at intermediate distances from the Sun during summer/winter inadequate ice deposits may allow the atmosphere to collapse by freezing out over winter latitudes. If the atmosphere does not collapse, its weight is sufficient to keep it distributed uniformly around Pluto's surface. In this case, the atmosphere tends to regulate the surface temperature to a seasonally dependent value which is uniform over the globe.Finally, the likely global circulation regimes for each model atmosphere as a function of temperature were investigated and it was concluded that if CH₄, O₂, or CO dominates the atmosphere, Pluto will exhibit cyclic variations between an axially symmetric circulation system at perihelion and a baroclinic wave regime at aphelion. However, if N₂ dominates, as is likely, the wave regime should hold continuously. If the atmosphere collapses to a thin halo during summer/winter seasons, only a weak, symmetric circulation should occur.     

Some remarks on the capture of Triton and the origin of Pluto

Harrington and Van Flandern (1979, Icarus39, 131–136) suggests that the irregular features of the Neptunian satellite system and Pluto's escape were caused by an encounter with a massive external body. They rule out the alternative mechanism based on the capture of Triton (which seems more plausible because it does not appeal to any unobserved object) on the basis of an incorrect deduction from McCord's (1966, Astron. J.71, 585–590) analysis on the tidal decay of Triton's orbit. As a matter of fact, many recent results show that satellite captures are possible, and in the case of Triton several arguments support this interpretation.     

The obliquity of Pluto

Pluto's obliquity (the angle between its spin axis and orbit normal) varies between ～102 and ～126° over a period of about 3 million years. These oscillations are nearly sinusoidal and quite stable, leading to only modest changes in the insolation regime. Thus, Pluto's rotation has been slightly retrograde ever since its current orbit and rotation rate were established.     

Polar wander on Triton and Pluto due to volatile migration

Polar wander may occur on Triton and Pluto because of volatile migration. Triton, with its low obliquity, can theoretically sublimate volatiles (mostly nitrogen) at the rate of ∼10¹³ kg year⁻¹ from the equatorial regions and deposit them at the poles. Assuming Triton to be rigid on the sublimation timescale, after ∼10⁵ years the polar caps would become large enough to cancel the rotational flattening, with a total mass equivalent to a global layer ∼120-250 m in depth. At this point the pole wanders about the tidal bulge axis, which is the line joining Triton and Neptune. Rotation about the bulge axis might be expected to disturb the leading side/trailing side cratering statistics. Because no such disturbance is observed, it may be that Triton’s surface volatile inventory is too low to permit wander. On the other hand, its mantle viscosity might be low, so that any uncompensated cap load might be expected to wander toward the tidal bulge axis. In this case, the axis of wander passes through the equator from the leading side to the trailing side; rotation about this wander axis would not disturb the cratering statistics. Low-viscosity polar wander may explain the bright southern hemisphere: this is the pole which is wandering toward the sub-Neptune point. In any case the “permanent” polar caps may be geologically very young. Polar wander may possibly take place on Pluto, due to its obliquity oscillations and perihelion-pole geometry. However, Pluto is probably not experiencing any wander at present. The Sun has been shining strongly on the poles over the last half of the obliquity cycle, so that volatiles should migrate to the equator, stabilizing the planet against wander. Spacecraft missions to Triton and Pluto which measure the dynamical flattening could give information about the accumulation of volatiles at the poles. Such information is best obtained by measuring gravity and topography from orbiters, as was done for Mars with the highly successful Mars Global Surveyor.     

A 1 Gyr climate model for Mars: new orbital statistics and the importance of seasonally resolved polar processes

New results from a 1 Gyr integration of the martian orbit are presented along with a seasonally resolved energy balance climate model employed to illuminate the gross characteristics of the long-term atmospheric pressure evolution. We present a new analysis of the statistical variation of the martian obliquity and precession prior to and subsequent to the formation of the Tharsis uplift, and explore the long term effects on the martian climate. We find that seasonal polar cycles have a critical influence on the ability for the regolith to release CO₂ at high obliquities, and find that the atmospheric CO₂ actually decreases at high obliquities due to the cooling effect of polar deposits at latitudes where seasonal caps form. At low obliquity, the formation of massive, permanent polar caps depends critically on the values of the frost albedo, A_frost, and frost emissivity, ?_frost. Using our model with values of A_frost=0.67 and ?_frost=0.55, matched to the NASA Ames General Circulation Model (GCM) results (Haberle et al., 1993, J. Geophys. Res. 98, 3093-3123, and Haberle et al., 2003, Icarus 161, 66-89), we find that permanent caps only form at low obliquities (<13°), suggesting that any permanent deposits on the surface of Mars today may be residuals left over from a period of very low obliquity, or are the result of mechanisms not represented by this model. Thus, contrary to expectations, the martian atmospheric pressure is remarkable static over time, and decreases both at high and low obliquity. Also, from our one billion year orbital model, we present new results on the fraction of time Mars is expected to experience periods of low obliquity and high obliquity.     

Does pluto have a substantial atmosphere?

The presence of CH₄ ice on Pluto implies that Pluto may have a substantial atmosphere consisting of heavy gases. Without such an atmosphere, sublimation of the CH₄ ice would be so rapid on a cosmogonic time scale that either such an atmosphere would soon develop through the exposure of gases trapped in the CH₄ ice or else the surface CH₄ ice would soon be all sublimated away as other, more stable, ices became exposed. If such stable ices were present from the beginning, the existence of CH₄ frosts would also imply that Pluto's present atmosphere contains a remnant of its primordial atmosphere.     

The insolation at Pluto

Calculations of the daily solar radiation incident at the top of Pluto's atmosphere and its variability with latitude and season and of the latitudinal variation of the mean annual daily insolation are presented. The large eccentricity of Pluto produces significant north-south seasonal asymmetries in the daily insolation. As for Uranus, having a similarly large obliquity, the equator receives less annual average energy than the poles.     

The astronomical theory of climatic change on Mars

We examine the response of Martian climate to changes in solar energy deposition caused by variations of the Martian orbit and obliquity. We systematically investigate the seasonal cycles of carbon dioxide, water, and dust to provide a complete picture of the climate for various orbital configurations. We find that at low obliquity (15°) the atmospheric pressure will fall below 1 mbar; dust storms will cease; thick permanent CO₂ caps will form; the regolith will release CO₂; and H₂O polar ice sheets will develop as the permafrost boundaries move poleward. At high obliquity (35°) the annual average polar temperature will increase by about 10°K, slightly desorbing the polar regolith and causing the atmospheric pressure to increase by not more than 10 to 20 mbar. Summer polar ground temperatures as high as 273°K will occur. Water ice caps will be unstable and may disappear as the equilibrium permafrost boundary moves equatorward. However, at high eccentricity, polar ice sheets will be favored at one pole over the other. At high obliquity dust storms may occur during summers in both hemispheres, independent of the eccentricity cycle. Eccentricity and longitude of perihelion are most significant at modest obliquity (25°). At high eccentricity and when the longitude of perihelion is close to the location of solstice hemispherical asymmetry in dust-storm generation and in polar ice extent and albedo will occur.The systematic examination of the relation of climate and planetary orbit provides a new theory for the formation of the polar laminae. The terraced structure of the polar laminae originates when eccentricity and/or obliquity variations begin to drive water ice off the dusty permanent H₂O polar caps. Then a thin (meters) layer of consolidated dust forms on top of a dirty, slightly thicker (tens of meters) ice sheet and the composite is preserved as a layer of laminae composed predominately of water ice. Because of insolation variation on slopes, a series of poleward- and equatorward-facing scarps are formed where the edges of the laminae are exposed. Independently of orbital variations, these scarps propagate poleward both by erosion of the equatorward slopes and by deposition on the poleward slopes. Scarp propagation resurfaces and recycles the laminae forming the distinctive spiral bands of terraces observed and provides a supply of water to form new permanent ice caps. The polar laminae boundary marks the furthest eqautorward extension of the permanent H₂O caps as the orbit varies. The polar debris boundary marks the furthest equatorward extension of the annual CO₂ caps as the orbit varies.The Martian regolith is now a significant geochemical sink for carbon dioxide. CO₂ has been irreversibly removed from the atmosphere by carbonate formation. CO₂ has also benn removed by regolith adsorption. Polar temperature increases caused by orbital variations are not great enough     

The role of seasonal reservoirs in the Mars water cycle: II. Coupled models of the regolith,the polar caps,and atmospheric transport

The behavior of water vapor in the Mars atmosphere requires that there be a seasonally accessible nonatmospheric reservoir of water. Coupled models have been constructed which include exchange of water with the regolith and with the polar caps, and transport through the atmosphere due to its circulation. Comparison of the model results with the vapor observations and with other data regarding the physical nature of the surface allows constraints to be placed on the relative importance of each process. The models are capable of satisfactorily explaining the gross features of the observed behavior using plausible values for the regolith and atmosphere mixing terms. In the region between the polar caps, the regolith contributes as much water to the seasonal cycle of vapor as does transport in from the more-poleward regions, to within a factor of 2. Globally, 10–40% of the seasonal cycle of vapor results from exchange of water with the regolith, about 40% results from the behavior of the residual caps, and the remainder is due to exchange of water with the seasonal caps. It is difficult to determine the relative importance of the processes more precisely than this because both regolith and polar cap exchange of water act to first order in the same direction, producing the largest vapor abundance during the local summer. The system is ultimately regulated on the seasonal time scale by the polar caps, as the time to reach equilibrium between the atmosphere and regolith or between the polar atmosphere and the global atmosphere is much longer than the time for the polar caps to equilibrate with the local atmosphere. This same behavior will hold for longer time scales, with the polar caps being in equilibrium with the insolation as it changes on the obliquity time scale, and the atmosphere and regolith following along.     

Numerical simulation of seasonal dynamics of water vapor in the Martian atmosphere

The seasonal evolution of the H₂O snow in the Martian polar caps and the dynamics of water vapor in the Martian atmosphere are studied. It is concluded that the variations of the H₂O mass in the polar caps of Mars are determined by the soil thermal regime in the polar regions of the planet. The atmosphere affects water condensation and evaporation in the polar caps mainly by transferring water between the polar caps. The stability of the system implies the presence of a source of water vapor that compensates for the removal of water from the atmosphere due to permanent vapor condensation in the polar residual caps. The evaporation of the water ice that is present in the surface soil layers in the polar regions of the planet is considered as such a source. The annual growth of the water-ice mass in the residual polar caps is estimated. The latitudinal pattern of the seasonal distribution of water vapor in the atmosphere is obtained for the stable regime.Translated from Astronomicheskii Vestnik, Vol. 38, No. 6, 2004, pp. 497–503.Original Russian Text Copyright © 2004 by Aleshin.     

Orbital change experiments with a Mars general circulation model

We use a Mars general circulation model to examine the effect of orbital changes on the planet’s general circulation and climate system. Experiments are performed for obliquities ranging from 0° to 60° for two different longitudes of perihelion. Each experiment simulates a full Mars year assuming a fixed atmospheric dust distribution and fixed amount of CO₂ in the atmosphere/cap system. We find that global mean surface temperatures and pressures decline with increasing obliquity due to the increasing extent of the winter polar caps. The seasonal CO₂ cycle and intensity of the solstice circulation amplify considerably with increasing obliquity such that global dust storms are likely at both solstices. The most significant feature of the high obliquity solstice circulations is the development of an intense low-level jet associated with the return branch of the Hadley circulation.Model surface stresses are used to map regions of preferred dust lifting, which are defined in terms of an annual deflation potential. For the present obliquity, the model-predicted regions of high deflation potential are in good agreement with Cantor et al.’s (2001, J. Geophys. Res.106, 23653-23688) observations, which gives us some confidence in the model’s ability to predict where lifting might occur when Mars’ orbit parameters are different than they are today. In general we find that the dust lifting potential increases sharply with obliquity and is greatest at times of high obliquity when perihelion coincides with northern summer solstice. Over an obliquity cycle, the model global annual deflation potential ranges from several tenths of a millimeter at 0° obliquity to almost 15 mm at 60° obliquity. Much higher values are possible when the atmosphere is very dusty.We find a strong correlation between the deflation potential and surface thermal inertia: regions of high deflation potential correspond to regions of high thermal inertia (high rock abundance), and regions of low deflation potential correspond to regions of low thermal inertia (high dust/sand abundance). Furthermore, while the regions of preferred lifting (high deflation potential) expand somewhat with increasing obliquity and dust loading, the central parts of Tharsis, Arabia, and Elysium show no tendency for significant lifting at any obliquity or longitude of perihelion. These regions may therefore be very old and represent net long-term sinks for atmospheric dust. It is the topography of the planet, through its influence on surface pressure and wind systems, which ultimately determines where dust accumulates.Finally, as was found by Fenton and Richardson (2001, J. Geophys. Res.106, 32885-32909), we find no tendency for the development of east-southeasterly winds at the Pathfinder site for any of our orbital change experiments. This suggests that the ancient wind regime discussed by Greeley et al. (2000, J. Geophys. Res.105, 1829-1840) was produced by other factors, such as polar wander.     

The atmospheric circulation and dust activity in different orbital epochs on Mars

A general circulation model is used to evaluate changes to the circulation and dust transport in the martian atmosphere for a range of past orbital conditions. A dust transport scheme, including parameterized dust lifting, is incorporated within the model to enable passive or radiatively active dust transport. The focus is on changes which relate to surface features, as these may potentially be verified by observations. Obliquity variations have the largest impact, as they affect the latitudinal distribution of solar heating. At low obliquities permanent CO₂ ice caps form at both poles, lowering mean surface pressures. At higher obliquities, solar insolation peaks at higher summer latitudes near solstice, producing a stronger, broader meridional circulation and a larger seasonal CO₂ ice cap in winter. Near-surface winds associated with the main meridional circulation intensify and extend polewards, with changes in cap edge position also affecting the flow. Hence the model predicts significant changes in surface wind directions as well as magnitudes. Dust lifting by wind stress increases with obliquity as the meridional circulation and associated near-surface winds strengthen. If active dust transport is used, then lifting rates increase further in response to the larger atmospheric dust opacities (hence circulation) produced. Dust lifting by dust devils increases more gradually with obliquity, having a weaker link to the meridional circulation. The primary effect of varying eccentricity is to change the impact of varying the areocentric longitude of perihelion, l, which determines when the solar forcing is strongest. The atmospheric circulation is stronger when l aligns with solstice rather than equinox, and there is also a bias from the martian topography, resulting in the strongest circulations when perihelion is at northern winter solstice. Net dust accumulation depends on both lifting and deposition. Dust which has been well mixed within the atmosphere is deposited preferentially over high topography. For wind stress lifting, the combination produces peak net removal within western boundary currents and southern midlatitude bands, and net accumulation concentrated in Arabia and Tharsis. In active dust transport experiments, dust is also scoured from northern midlatitudes during winter, further confining peak accumulation to equatorial regions. As obliquity increases, polar accumulation rates increase for wind stress lifting and are largest for high eccentricities when perihelion occurs during northern winter. For dust devil lifting, polar accumulation rates increase (though less rapidly) with obliquity above o=25°, but increase with decreasing obliquity below this, thus polar dust accumulation at low obliquities may be increasingly due to dust lifted by dust devils. For all cases discussed, the pole receiving most dust shifts from north to south as obliquity is increased.     

Distribution and state of H2O in the high-latitude shallow subsurface of mars

A quantitative model of the state, distribution, and migration of water in the shallow Martian regolith is presented. Reported results are confined to the region of the planet greater than 40° lat. The calculations take into account (1) expected thermal variations at all depths, latitudes, and times resulting from seasonal and astronomically induced insolation variations; (2) variations in atmospheric P_H2O and P_CO2 resulting from polar insolation variations and regolith adsorptive equilibria; (3) feedback effects related to latent heat and albedo variations resulting from condensation of atmospheric constituents; (4) two possible regolith mineralogies; (5) variable total H₂O content of the regolith; (6) kinetics of H₂O transport through the Martian atmosphere and regolith; and (7) equilibrium phase partitioning of H₂O between the condensed, adsorbed, and vapor phases. Results suggest that the adsorptive capacity of the regolith is important in controlling the state and distribution of high-latitude H₂O; unweathered mafic silicates favor the development of shallow ground ice at all temperate and polar latitudes, while heavily weathered clay-like regolith materials leads to a deeper ground ice interface and far more extensive quantities of adsorbed H₂O. The capacity of the high-latitude regolith for storage of H₂O and the total mass of H₂O exchanged between the atmosphere, polar cap, and subsurface over an obliquity cycle is found to be relatively independent of mineralogy. The maximum exchanged volume is found to be 3.0 × 10⁴ km³ of ice per cycle. Implications for the history of the polar caps and the origin of the layered terrain are discussed. Results also suggest that seasonal thermal waves act to force adsorbed H₂O into the solid phase over a wide variety of latitude/obliquity conditions. Seasonal phase cycling of regolith H₂O is most common at high latitudes and obliquities. Such phase behavior is highly dependent on regolith mineralogy. In a highly weathered regolith, adsorbed H₂O is annually forced into the solid phase at all latitudes ≥40° at obliquities greater than approximately 25°. Seasonal adsorption-freezing cycles which are predicted here may produce geomorphologic signatures not unlike those produced by terrestrial freeze-thaw cycles.     

Climatic change on the terrestrial planets

In this paper, we review the observational data on climatic change for the terrestrial planets, discuss the basic factors that influence climate, and examine the manner in which these factors may have been responsible for some of the known changes. Emphasis is placed on trying to understand the similarities and differences in both the basic factors and their climatic impacts on Venus, the Earth, and Mars. Climatic changes have occurred on the Earth over a broad spectrum of time scales that range from the elevated temperatures of Pre-Cambrian times (～10⁹ years ago), through the alternating glacial and interglacial epochs of the last few million years, to the small but significant decadal and centurial variations of the recent past. Evidence for climatic change on Mars is given by certain channel features, which suggest an early to intermediate aged epoch of warmer and wetter climate, and by layered polar deposits, which imply more recent periodic climate variations. No evidence for climatic change on Venus exists as yet, but comparison of its present climate state with that of outer terrestrial planets offers important clues on some of the mechanisms affecting climate. The important determinants of climate for a terrestrial planet include the Sun's output, astronomical perturbations of its orbital and axial characteristics, the gaseous and particulate content of its atmosphere, its land surface, volatile reservoirs, and its interior. All these factors appear to have played major roles in causing climatic changes on the terrestrial planets. Despite a lower solar luminosity in the past, the Earth and Mars have had warmer periods in their early history. In both cases, a more reducing atmosphere may have been the responsible agent through an enhanced greenhouse effect. In this paper, we present detailed calculations of the effect of atmospheric pressure and composition on the temperature state of Mars. We find that the higher temperature period is easier to explain with a reducing atmosphere than with the current fully oxidizing one. Both the very high surface temperature and massive atmosphere of Venus may be the result of the solar flux being a factor of two higher at its orbit than at the Earth's orbit. This difference may have led to a runaway greenhouse effect on Venus, i.e., the emplacement of volatiles entirely in the atmosphere rather than mostly in surface reservoirs. But if Venus formed with relatively little or no water, it may have always had an oxidizing atmosphere. In this case, a lower solar luminosity would have led to a moderate surface temperature in Venus' early history. Quasi-periodic variations in orbital eccentricity and axial obliquity may have contributed to the alternation between Pleistocene glacial and interglacial periods in the case of the Earth and to the formation of the layered polar deposits in the case of Mars. In this paper, we postulate that two mechanisms, acting jointly, account for the creation of the laminated terrain of Mars: dust particles serve as nucleation centers for the condensation of water vapor and carbon dioxide. The combined dust-H₂O-CO₂ particle is much larger and so has a much higher terminal velocity than either a dust-H₂O or a plain dust particle. As a result, dust and water ice are preferentially deposited in the polar regions. In addition, we postulate that the obliquity variations are key drivers of the periodic layering because of their impact on both atmospheric pressure and polar surface temperature, which, in turn, influence the amounts of dust and water ice in the atmosphere. But eccentricity and precessional changes probably also play important roles in creating the polar layers. The drifting of continents on the Earth has caused substantial climatic changes on individual continents and may have helped to set the stage for the Pleistocene ice ages through a positioning of the continents near the poles. While continental drift apparently has not occurred on Mars, tectonic distortions of its lithosphere may, in some circumstances, cause an alteration in the mean value of that planet's obliquity, which would significantly impact its climate. Atmospheric aerosols can influemce climate through their radiative effects. In the case of the Earth, volcanic aerosols appear to have contributed to past climatic changes, while consideration needs to be given to the future impact of man-generated aerosols. In the case of Mars, the atmospheric temperature structure and thereby atmospheric dynamics are greatly altered by suspended dust particles. The sulfuric acid clouds of Venus play a major role in its heat balance. Cometary impacts may have added substantial quantities of water vapor and sulfur gases to Venus' atmosphere and thus have indirectly affected its cloud properties. Calculations presented in this paper indicate substantial changes in surface temperature accompany these compositional changes.     

The nature of the residual Martian polar caps

A model of the behavior of the Martian polar caps is described which incorporates the heating effects of the atmosphere, as well as insolation and conduction. This model is used to try to match the observed regression curves of the polar caps, and it predicts that all the seasonally condensed CO₂ will be lost by around the summer solstice. The implication is that the residual caps are composed of water ice which, it is found by further modeling, should be stable during the Martian summers. However, it is also argued that this model may be too simplistic, and that the effects of wind in redistributing the seasonal condensate may lead to sufficient thickness of CO₂ in the central polar region to allow the year-long existence of CO₂ without significantly changing the retreat characteristics of the cap, and it is, therefore, concluded that at the present, the nature of the residual caps cannot be reliably determined.     

Reassessing the origin of Triton

The origin of Neptune’s large, circular but retrograde satellite Triton has remained largely unexplained. There is an apparent consensus that its origin lies in it being captured, but until recently no successful capture mechanism has been found. Agnor and Hamilton (Agnor, C.B., Hamilton, D.P. [2006]. Nature 441, 192-194) demonstrated that the disruption of a trans-neptunian binary object which had Triton as a member, and which underwent a very close encounter with Neptune, was an effective mechanism to capture Triton while its former partner continued on a hyperbolic orbit. The subsequent evolution of Triton’s post-capture orbit to its current one could have proceeded through gravitational tides (Correia, A.C.M. [2009]. Astrophys. J. 704, L1-L4), during which time Triton was most likely semi-molten (McKinnon, W.B. [1984]. Nature 311, 355-358). However, to date, no study has been performed that considered both the capture and the subsequent tidal evolution. Thus it is attempted here with the use of numerical simulations. The study by Agnor and Hamilton (Agnor, C.B., Hamilton, D.P. [2006]. Nature 441, 192-194) is repeated in the framework of the Nice model (Tsiganis, K., Gomes, R., Morbidelli, A., Levison, H.F. [2005]. Nature 435, 459-461) to determine the post-capture orbit of Triton. After capture Triton is then subjected to tidal evolution using the model of Mignard (Mignard, F. [1979]. Moon Planets 20, 301-315; Mignard, F. [1980]. Moon Planets 23, 185-201). The perturbations from the Sun and the figure of Neptune are included. The perturbations from the Sun acting on Triton just after its capture cause it to spend a long time in its high-eccentricity phase, usually of the order of 10 Myr, while the typical time to circularise to its current orbit is some 200 Myr, consistent with earlier studies. The current orbit of Triton is consistent with an origin through binary capture and tidal evolution, even though the model prefers Triton to be closer to Neptune than it is today. The probability of capturing Triton in this manner is approximately 0.7%. Since the capture of Triton was at most a 50% event - since only Neptune has one, but Uranus does not - we deduce that in the primordial trans-neptunian disc there were some 100 binaries with at least one Triton-sized member. Morbidelli et al. (Morbidelli, A., Levison, H.F., Bottke, W.F., Dones, L., Nesvorný, D. [2009]. Icarus 202, 310-315) concludes there were some 1000 Triton-sized bodies in the trans-neptunian proto-planetary disc, so the primordial binary fraction with at least one Triton-sized member is 10%. This value is consistent with theoretical predictions, but at the low end. If Triton was captured at the same time as Neptune’s irregular satellites, the far majority of these, including Nereid, would be lost. This suggests either that Triton was captured on an orbit with a small semi-major axisa ? 50R_N (a rare event), or that it was captured before the dynamical instability of the Nice model, or that some other mechanism was at play. The issue of keeping the irregular satellites remains unresolved.     

Global distribution and migration of subsurface ice on mars

A thermal/diffusive model of H₂O kinetics and equilibrium was developed to investigate the long-term evolution and depth distribution of subsurface ice on Mars. The model quantitatively takes into account (1) obliquity variations; (2) eccentricity variations; (3) long-term changes in the solar luminosity; (4) variations in the argument of subsolar meridian (in planetocentric equatorial coordinates); (5) albedo changes at higher latitudes due to seasonal phase changes of CO₂ and the varying extent of CO₂ ice cover; (6) planetary internal heat flow; (7) temperature variations in the regolith as a function of depth, time, and latitude due to the above factors; (8) atmospheric pressure variations over a 10⁴-year time scale; (9) the effects of factors (1) through (5) on seasonal polar cap temperatures; and (10) Knudsen and molecular diffusion of H₂O through the regolith. The migration of H₂O into or out of the regolith is determined by two boundary conditions, the H₂O vapor pressure at the subsurface ice boundary and the annual average H₂O concentration at the base of the atmosphere. These are controlled respectively by the annual average regolith temperature at the given depth and seasonal temperatures at the polar cap. Starting from an arbitrary initial uniform depth distribution of subsurface ice, H₂O fluxes into or out of the regolith are calculated for 100 selected obliquity cycles, each representing a different epoch in Mars' history. The H₂O fluxes are translated into ice thicknesses and extrapolated over time to give the subsurface ice depth as a function of latitude and time. The results show that obliquity variations influence annual average regolith temperatures in varying degrees, depending on latitude, with the greatest effect at the poles and almost no effect at 40° lat. Insolation changes at the pole, due to obliquity, argument of subsolar meridian, and eccentricity variations can produce enormous atmospheric H₂O concentration variations of ≈6 orders of magnitude over an obliquity cycle. Superimposed on these cyclic variations is a slow, monotonic change due to the increasing solar luminosity. Albedo changes at the polar cap due to seasonal phase changes of CO₂ and the varying thickness of the CO₂ ice cover are critically important in determining annual average atmospheric H₂O concentrations. Despite the strongly oscillating character of the boundary conditions, only small amounts of H₂O are exchanged between the regolith and the atmosphere per obliquity cycle (<10 g/cm²). The net result of H₂O migration is that the regolith below 30–40° lat is depleted of subsurface ice, while the regolith above 30–40° lat contains permanent ice due to the depth of penetration of the annual thermal wave. This result is supported by recent morphological studies. The rate of migration of H₂O is strongly dependent on average pore/capillary radius for which we have assumed values of 1 and 10 μm. We estimate that the H₂O ice removed from the regolith would produce a permanent ice cap with a volume between 2 × 10⁶ and 6 × 10⁶ km³. This generally agrees with estimates deduced from deflationary features at lower latitudes, depositional features at higher latitudes, and the mass of the polar caps.     

Seasonal redistribution of water in the surficial Martian regolith: Results from the <Emphasis Type="Italic">Mars Odyssey</Emphasis> high-energy neutron detector (HEND)

The seasonal variation of neutron emissions from Mars in different spectral intervals measured by the HEND neutron detector for the entire Martian year are analyzed. Based on these data, the spatial variations of the neutron emissions from the planet are globally mapped as a function of season, and the dynamics of seasonal variation of neutron fluxes with different energies is analyzed in detail. No differences were found between seasonal regimes of neutron fluxes in different energy ranges in the southern hemisphere of Mars, while the regime of fast neutrons (with higher energies) during the northern winter strongly differs from that during the southern winter. In winter (L _s = 270°–330°), the fast neutron fluxes are noticeably reduced in the northern hemisphere (along with the consecutive thickening of the seasonal cap of solid carbon dioxide). This provides evidence of a temporary increase in the water content in the effective layer of neutron generation. According to the obtained estimates, the observed reduction of the flux of fast neutrons in the effective layer corresponds to an increase in the water abundance of up to 5% in the seasonal polar cap (70°–90°N), about 3% at mid-latitudes, and from 1.5 to 2% at low latitudes. The freezing out of atmospheric water at the planetary surface (at middle and high latitudes) and the hydration of salt minerals composing the Martian soil are considered as the main processes responsible for the temporary increase in the water content in the soil and upper layer of the seasonal polar cap. The meridional atmospheric transport of water vapor from the summer southern to the winter northern hemisphere within the Hadley circulation cell is a basic process that delivers water to the subsurface soil layer and ensures the observed scale of the seasonal increase in water abundance. In the summer northern hemisphere, the similar Hadley circulation cell transports mainly dry air masses to the winter southern hemisphere. The point is that the water vapor becomes saturated at lower heights during aphelion, and the bulk of the atmospheric water mass is captured in the near-equatorial cloudy belt and, thus, is only weakly transferred to the southern hemisphere. This phenomenon, known as the Clancy effect, was suggested by Clancy et al. (1996) as a basic mechanism for the explanation of the interhemispheric asymmetry of water storage in permanent polar caps. The asymmetry of seasonal meridional circulation of the Martian atmosphere seems to be another factor determining the asymmetry of the seasonal water redistribution in the “atmosphere-regolith-seasonal polar caps” system, found in the peculiarities of the seasonal regime of the neutron emission of Mars.