快速城市化地区多尺度水文观测试验与暴雨洪水响应机理分析

城市下垫面改变引起水文循环过程发生变异,导致目前已掌握的天然情况下的产汇流规律和机制难以解释城市化等新形势下的水文现象与过程,而面临需重新再认识的挑战。本文以长三角地区为典型,建立了不同城市化水平及空间规模的水文试验流域,探讨了快速城市化地区暴雨洪水响应规律和机制。结果表明：(1)不同量级降水事件下城镇用地土壤水响应程度(表层土壤水涨幅基本超过4%)总体高于其他土地利用类型,城市化地区下垫面的改变通过影响土壤水动态响应模式直接影响了地表产流过程,植被覆盖率较低的城镇用地和荒地土壤含水率呈现出陡涨陡落现象,而植被作用下的土地利用类型则表现出缓慢上升和缓慢消退的土壤水响应过程。(2)流域洪峰滞时和洪峰流量整体表现为随流域面积增加而呈幂律函数关系形式的增加。(3)总降水量与主要洪水特征(如洪峰流量、单位面积洪峰流量和径流深)基本呈显著相关(相关系数分别达0.49、0.41和0.78以上)。城市下垫面通过改变土壤水动态响应等产汇流特征而直接影响了洪水过程,未来长三角地区暴雨洪水在城市化和气候因素双重作用下呈现持续加剧的趋势。     

Projected impacts of land use and road network changes on increasing flood hazards using a 4D GIS: A case study in Makkah metropolitan area,Saudi Arabia

Makkah City, west of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, is considered the third main highly populated metropolitan area in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. It exhibits two unique features that increase the hazardous flood consequences: (1) its topography is very complex and (2) about three million Muslims are gathered annually in Makkah to perform Hajj over a 2-week period. Floods are natural returning hydrological phenomena that have been affecting human lives. The objectives of the current study are: (1) identification of land use types and road networks in Makkah, (2) hydrological modeling of flood characteristics in Makkah based on precise up-to-date databases, (3) examination of the relationship between land use, land cover changes, transportation network expansion, and the floods' prosperities and hazards, and (4) development of digital hydrological maps for present and near future flood hazards in Makkah. The attained results show that the mean runoff depth and the total flood volume are significantly increased from 2010 to 2030. Additionally, it has been found that a great part of the road network in Makkah City is subjected to high dangerous flood impacts. The overall length of flood danger-factor roads is increased from 481 km (with almost 37 %) to 1,398 km (with 74 % approximately) between 2010 and 2030. Thus, it is concluded that urbanization has a direct strong relationship with flood hazards. Consequently, it is recommended that the attained results should be taken into account by decision makers in implementing new development planning of the Makkah metropolitan area.     

Impact of forecasted land use changes on flood risk in the Polish Carpathians

Flooding is a major environmental hazard in Poland with risks that are likely to increase in the future. Land use and land cover (LULC) have a strong influencing on flood risk. In the Polish Carpathians, the two main projected land use change processes are forest expansion and urbanization. These processes have a contradictory impact on flood risk, which makes the future impact of LULC changes on flooding in the Carpathians hard to estimate. In this paper, we investigate the impact of the projected LULC changes on future flood risk in the Polish Carpathians for the test area of Ropa river basin. We used three models of spatially explicit future LULC scenarios for the year 2060. We conduct hydrological simulations for the current state and for the three projected land use scenarios (trend extrapolation, ‘liberalization’ and ‘self-sufficiency’). In addition, we calculated the amount of flood-related monetary losses, based on the current flood plain area and both actual and projected land use maps under each of the three scenarios. The results show that in the Ropa river, depending on scenario, either peak discharge decreases due to the forest expansion or the peak discharge remains constant—the impact of LULC changes on the hydrology of such mountainous basins is relatively low. However, the peak discharges are very diverse across sub-catchments within the modeling area. Despite the overall decrease of peak discharge, there are areas of flow increase and there is a substantial projected increase in flood-related monetary losses within the already flood-prone areas, related to the projected degree of urbanization.     

变化环境下城市洪水演变驱动机理——以北京市温榆河为例

气候变化和人类活动被认为是城市洪水演变的主要驱动因素,不同区域气候变化和城市化对洪水演变的影响不尽相同,科学识别城市洪水演变的关键驱动要素、量化气候变化与城市化对城市流域洪水演变的影响是城市洪水管理的重要依据。本文以高度城市化的北京市温榆河流域为例,以季节降雨量、气温、流域前期湿度、不透水面积比及流域内地下水埋深作为潜在驱动要素,对温榆河夏季不同概率的洪水建立GAMLSS模型,分析探讨城市流域洪水演变的主要驱动机制。研究结果表明:温榆河流域夏季不同概率的洪水在研究期均呈现出非一致性特性;城市不透水面积的扩张和降水是温榆河流域夏季洪水变化的主要驱动要素,不同等级洪水的变化具有不同的驱动机制,高于概率70%的小洪水的变化主要受到流域下垫面变化的影响,而小于概率45%的低频洪水的变化主要受降水的影响。     

Evaluating the impacts of watershed management on runoff storage and peak flow in Gav-Darreh watershed,Kurdistan, Iran

Recently, water and soil resource competition and environmental degradation due to inadequate management practices have been increased and pose difficult problems for resource managers. Numerous watershed practices currently being implemented for runoff storage and flood control purposes have improved hydrologic conditions in watersheds and enhanced the establishment of riparian vegetation. The assessment of proposed management options increases management efficiency. The purpose of this study is to assess the impact of watershed managements on runoff storage and peak flow, and determine the land use and cover dynamics that it has induced in Gav-Darreh watershed, Kurdistan, Iran. The watershed area is 6.27 km² which has been subjected to non-structural and structural measures. The implemented management practices and its impact on land use and cover were assessed by integrating field observation and geographic information systems (GIS). The data were used to derive the volume of retained water and determine reduction in peak flow. The hydrology of the watershed was modeled using the Hydrologic Engineering Center–Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC–HMS) model, and watershed changes were quantified through field work. Actual storms were used to calibrate and validate HEC–HMS rainfall–runoff model. The calibrated HEC–HMS model was used to simulate pre- and post-management conditions in the watershed. The results derived from field observation and HEC–HMS model showed that the practices had significant impacts on the runoff storage and peak flow reduction.     

An experimental investigation to characterise soil macroporosity under different land use and land covers of northeast India

Saturated macropore flow is the dominant hydrological process in tropical and subtropical hilly watersheds of northeast India. The process of infiltration into saturated macroporous soils is primarily controlled by size, network, density, connectivity, saturation of surrounding soil matrix, and depthwise distribution of macropores. To understand the effects of local land use, land cover and management practices on soil macroporosity, colour dye infiltration experiments were conducted with ten soil columns (25 × 25 × 50 cm) collected from different watersheds of the region under similar soil and agro-climatic zones. The sampling sites included two undisturbed forested hillslopes, two conventionally cultivated paddy fields, two forest lands abandoned after Jhum cultivation, and two paddy fields, one pineapple plot and one banana plot presently under active cultivation stage of the Jhum cycle. Digital image analyses of the obtained dye patterns showed that the infiltration patterns differed significantly for different sites with varying land use, land cover, and cultivation practices. Undisturbed forest soils showed high degree of soil macroporosity throughout the soil profile, paddy fields revealed sealing of macropores at the topsoil due to hard pan formation, and Jhum cultivated plots showed disconnected subsoil macropores. The important parameters related to soil macropores such as maximum and average size of macropores, number of active macropores, and depthwise distribution of macropores were estimated to characterise the soil macroporosity for the sites. These experimentally derived quantitative data of soil macroporosity can have wide range of applications in the region such as water quality monitoring and groundwater pollution assessment due to preferential leaching of solutes and pesticides, study of soil structural properties and infiltration behaviour of soils, investigation of flash floods in rivers, and hydrological modelling of the watersheds.     

Mapping debris flow susceptibility using analytical network process in Kodaikkanal Hills,Tamil Nadu (India)

Rapid debris flows, a mixture of unconsolidated sediments and water travelling at speeds > 10 m/s are the most destructive water related mass movements that affect hill and mountain regions. The predisposing factors setting the stage for the event are the availability of materials, type of materials, stream power, slope gradient, aspect and curvature, lithology, land use and land cover, lineament density, and drainage. Rainfall is the most common triggering factor that causes debris flow in the Palar subwatershed and seismicity is not considered as it is a stable continental region and moderate seismic zone. Also, there are no records of major seismic activities in the past. In this study, one of the less explored heuristic methods known as the analytical network process (ANP) is used to map the spatial propensity of debris flow. This method is based on top-down decision model and is a multi-criteria, decision-making tool that translates subjective assessment of relative importance to weights or scores and is implemented in the Palar subwatershed which is part of the Western Ghats in southern India. The results suggest that the factors influencing debris flow susceptibility in this region are the availability of material on the slope, peak flow, gradient of the slope, land use and land cover, and proximity to streams. Among all, peak discharge is identified as the chief factor causing debris flow. The use of micro-scale watersheds demonstrated in this study to develop the susceptibility map can be very effective for local level planning and land management.     

Hypsometric analysis of the micro-watersheds with different management practices located on Shivalik foothills

In this paper, the hypsometric curves and integrals of four neighboring micro-watersheds draining into Patiala-Ki-Rao stream which is situated in the Shivalik foothills of district SAS Nagar in the Punjab state (India) has been presented to access and compare the erosion regimes under different management practices. Area-elevation ratio method has been used to compute hypsometric curve and integral values for each micro-watershed through ArcGIS 10.3 and Microsoft Excel. The 9-year data of runoff and sediment yield for all these micro-watersheds under different management practices has been analyzed for their effect on land cover and soil quality. Thus, the results of present study are very useful for comparing, planning, implementing, and controlling soil erosion in similar watersheds.     

Assessing the use of global land cover data for guiding large area population distribution modelling

Gridded population distribution data are finding increasing use in a wide range of fields, including resource allocation, disease burden estimation and climate change impact assessment. Land cover information can be used in combination with detailed settlement extents to redistribute aggregated census counts to improve the accuracy of national-scale gridded population data. In East Africa, such analyses have been done using regional land cover data, thus restricting application of the approach to this region. If gridded population data are to be improved across Africa, an alternative, consistent and comparable source of land cover data is required. Here these analyses were repeated for Kenya using four continent-wide land cover datasets combined with detailed settlement extents and accuracies were assessed against detailed census data. The aim was to identify the large area land cover dataset that, combined with detailed settlement extents, produce the most accurate population distribution data. The effectiveness of the population distribution modelling procedures in the absence of high resolution census data was evaluated, as was the extrapolation ability of population densities between different regions. Results showed that the use of the GlobCover dataset refined with detailed settlement extents provided significantly more accurate gridded population data compared to the use of refined AVHRR-derived, MODIS-derived and GLC2000 land cover datasets. This study supports the hypothesis that land cover information is important for improving population distribution model accuracies, particularly in countries where only coarse resolution census data are available. Obtaining high resolution census data must however remain the priority. With its higher spatial resolution and its more recent data acquisition, the GlobCover dataset was found as the most valuable resource to use in combination with detailed settlement extents for the production of gridded population datasets across large areas.     

Effects of land use change on flood characteristics in mountainous area of Daqinghe watershed, China

Land use has changed in the Daqinghe watershed during 1956–2005, and it has influenced the flood peak and volume. In order to reveal the effects of land use change on flood characteristics in Daqinghe watershed, we selected 2 sub-watersheds and used remote-sensed land use data of 1980 and 1996 to analyze changes in land use and also selected several combinations of similar rainfall events and the corresponding flood events to show how changes in land use affect floods. The forest and urban area increased and other types decreased, and flood peaks and volumes tended to decrease under similar rainfall events. To quantify the extent of change in land use affecting floods, a hydrological model incorporating the land use was established. The model combines infiltration excess and saturation excess runoff generation mechanism in each type of land use, and the simulation results agreed well with the measured flood processes in the two selected watersheds. Several floods of different return intervals were selected to be modeled under the 1980 and 1996 land use conditions. The results show that both flood peak and volume decreased under the 1996 land use condition in comparison with the 1980 land use condition in the two watersheds. Most of the flood peaks decreased <5 %, but the volume decreased to a greater extent. This result can be helpful in modifying design flood.     

Monitoring Flood Extent and Forecasting Excess Runoff Risk with RADARSAT-1 Data

Earth observation from active microwave satellites such as RADARSAT-1 is an excellent tool to monitor and forecast floods. Two complementary approaches are described in this paper: (a) real time or near-real time monitoring of flood extent and (b) mapping of hydrological properties of drainage basins. Since it can penetrate through clouds, which usually occur during precipitation periods, and due to the fact that it can be programmed with different incidence angles, RADARSAT-1 enables frequent coverage over specific areas of interest. It has been used successfully to monitor a major flood of the Red River in Manitoba in 1997, by providing frequent coverage of the flood during its progression and decrease. Resulting data and images have been useful in planning the emergency measures and in assessing flood damage. RADARSAT has also the ability to characterize hydrological properties of watersheds. It has been used in agricultural catchments in Europe for mapping soil surface roughness, which affects runoff coefficients, concentration time and resistance to erosion processes. Used to complement optical data, RADARSAT has provided information on the status of land use and soil protective cover in drainage basins. This information can then be translated into parameters and coefficients that hydrological models can use for runoff and flood forecasting     

RETRACTED ARTICLE: Assessment of soil erosion using RUSLE and GIS: a case study of the Maotiao River watershed,Guizhou Province,China

Due to the existence of fragile karst geo-ecological environments, such as environments with extremely poor soil cover, low soil-forming velocity, and fragmentized terrain and physiognomy, as well as inappropriate and intensive land use, soil erosion is a serious problem in Guizhou Province, which is located in the centre of the karst areas of southwestern China; evaluation of soil loss and spatial distribution for conservation planning is urgently needed. This study integrated the revised universal soil loss equation (RUSLE) with a GIS to assess soil loss and identify risk erosion areas in the Maotiao River watershed of Guizhou. Current land use/cover and management practices were evaluated to determine their effects on average annual soil loss and future soil conservation practices were discussed. Data used to generate the RUSLE factors included a Landsat Thematic Mapper image (land cover), digitized topographic and soil maps, and precipitation data. The results of the study compare well with the other studies and local data, and provide useful information for decision makers and planners to take appropriate land management measures in the area. It thus indicates the RUSLE–GIS model is a useful tool for evaluating and mapping soil erosion quantitatively and spatially at a larger watershed scale in Guizhou.     

Remote sensing and GIS for artificial recharge study, runoff estimation and planning in Ayyar basin, Tamil Nadu, India

This paper focuses on artificial groundwater recharge study in Ayyar basin, Tamil Nadu, India. The basin is covered by hard crystalline rock and overall has poor groundwater conditions. Hence, an artificial recharge study was carried out in this region through a project sponsored by Tamil Nadu State Council for Science and Technology. The Indian Remote Sensing satellite 1A Linear Imaging Self Scanning Sensor II (IRS 1A LISS II) satellite imagery, aerial photographs and geophysical resistivity data were used to prioritize suitable sites for artificial recharge and to estimate the volume of aquifer dimension available to recharge. The runoff water available for artificial recharge in the basin is estimated through Soil Conservation Service curve number method. The land use/land cover, hydrological soil group and storm rainfall data in different watershed areas were used to calculate the runoff in the watersheds. The weighted curve number for each watershed is obtained through spatial intersection of land use/land cover and hydrological soil group through GeoMedia 3.0 Professional GIS software. Artificial recharge planning was derived on the basis of availability of runoff, aquifer dimension, priority areas and water table conditions in different watersheds in the basin.     

Assessment of land-use change and its impact on the environment using GIS techniques: a case of Kolkata Municipal Corporation,West Bengal,India

It is axiomatically true that urbanization in India's metropolises and large cities has been exacerbated since the beginning of the millennium, consuming the natural and semi-natural ecosystem on the outskirts of the city, resulting in a zone with a distinct climate known as urban climate. Such a climate—the result of a built-up environment is distinctly different from the natural climate as the paved surface and concrete skyscrapers not only destroy the natural ecosystem, it peculiarly induce a different kind of insolation, cooling and air drainage were lacking in green space, water bodies and open space cannot accommodate with environmental rhythm properly, resulting into the accumulation of heat, ecological derangement of subsurface soil which can easily be predicted by GIS analysis. This paper is an attempt to measure urban growth and its impact on the environment in the metropolitan city Kolkata. The use of satellite data and GIS techniques to detect urban expansion is a highly scientific strategy. Using geospatial techniques, the current study attempts to examine major urban changes in Kolkata and its surroundings from 1988 to 2021. Landsat 5 TM and Landsat 8 OLI temporal data are used to identify land-use change through unsupervised classification; Spectral Radiance Model and Split Window Algorithm method are used for identifying land surface temperature change. SRTM DEM (30 m) has been used to identify flood risk zones and several spectral indices like Normalized Difference Vegetation Index and Modified Normalized Difference Water Index are a further extension for environmental assessment. By all such suitable methods, a clearer change in an urban environment is detected within the period of 33 years (1988–2021). The result shows that the population changes, vegetation cover and built-up area, and accessibility are at a rapid rate. These changes are causing major environmental degradation in the city. The classification result indicates that appropriate land use planning and environmental monitoring are required for the long-term exploitation of these resources.

     

Dynamics of land use/cover changes and the analysis of landscape fragmentation in Dhaka Metropolitan, Bangladesh

Rapid urban expansion due to large scale land use/cover change, particularly in developing countries becomes a matter of concern since urbanization drives environmental change at multiple scales. Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh, has been experienced break-neck urban growth in the last few decades that resulted many adverse impacts on the environment. This paper was an attempt to document spatio-temporal pattern of land use/cover changes, and to quantify the landscape structures in Dhaka Metropolitan of Bangladesh. Using multi-temporal remotely sensed data with GIS, dynamics of land use/cover changes was evaluated and a transition matrix was computed to understand the rate and pattern of land use/cover change. Derived land use statistics subsequently integrated with landscape metrics to determine the impact of land use change on landscape fragmentation. Significant changes in land use/cover were noticed in Dhaka over the study period, 1975–2005. Rapid urbanization was manifested by a large reduction of agricultural land since urban built-up area increased from 5,500?ha in 1975 to 20,549?ha in 2005. At the same time, cultivated land decreased from 12,040 to 6,236?ha in the same period. Likewise, wetland and vegetation cover reduced to about 6,027 and 2,812?ha, respectively. Consequently, sharp changes in landscape pattern and composition were observed. The landscape became highly fragmented as a result of rapid increase in the built-up areas. The analysis revealed that mean patch size decreased while the number of patches increased. Landscape diversity declined, urban dominance amplified, and the overall landscape mosaics became more continuous, homogenous and clumped. In order to devise sustainable land use planning and to determine future landscape changes for sound resource management strategies, the present study is expected to have significant implications in rapidly urbanizing cities of the world in delivering baseline information about long term land use change and its impact on landscape structure.     

Semi-analytical solutions for stream–aquifer interactions under triangular stream-stage variations and its application to study urbanization impacts in an ungaged watershed of south Texas

Simple yet physically based models to evaluate stream–aquifer interactions during a flooding event subject to triangular stream stage variation were developed in this study. The results from the developed models were compared with other analytical and numerical solutions and noted to be very accurate. The study fills an important gap with regard to available analytical and semi-analytical solutions for modeling stream–aquifer interactions, which can be used for evaluating numerical codes. In particular, the developed models are very useful to obtain preliminary insights with regard to bank storage in ungaged watersheds as required for watershed management and planning studies in rapidly urbanizing watersheds. The utility of the model is illustrated by applying it to study the effects of urbanization on stream–aquifer interactions in the Arroyo Colorado River Watershed along the US–Mexico border region. The results indicate that increased urbanization reduces the amount of influx into the banks. The reduction in flood passage time was noted to have a greater impact than the associated rise in stage. The presence of a semi-permeable barrier was seen to mask the effects of urbanization. The model results also implicitly highlight the importance of how water quality variations caused due to urbanization can affect stream–aquifer interactions.     

Hydrological impacts of land use–land cover change and detention basins on urban flood hazard: a case study of Poisar River basin,Mumbai, India

Flooding in urban area is a major natural hazard causing loss of life and damage to property and infrastructure. The major causes of urban floods include increase in precipitation due to climate change effect, drastic change in land use–land cover (LULC) and related hydrological impacts. In this study, the change in LULC between the years 1966 and 2009 is estimated from the toposheets and satellite images for the catchment of Poisar River in Mumbai, India. The delineated catchment area of the Poisar River is 20.19 km². For the study area, there is an increase in built-up area from 16.64 to 44.08% and reduction in open space from 43.09 to 7.38% with reference to total catchment area between the years 1966 and 2009. For the flood assessment, an integrated approach of Hydrological Engineering Centre-Hydrological Modeling System (HEC-HMS), HEC-GeoHMS and HEC-River analysis system (HEC-RAS) with HEC-GeoRAS has been used. These models are integrated with geographic information system (GIS) and remote sensing data to develop a regional model for the estimation of flood plain extent and flood hazard analysis. The impact of LULC change and effects of detention ponds on surface runoff as well as flood plain extent for different return periods have been analyzed, and flood plain maps are developed. From the analysis, it is observed that there is an increase in peak discharge from 2.6 to 20.9% for LULC change between the years 1966 and 2009 for the return periods of 200, 100, 50, 25, 10 and 2 years. For the LULC of year 2009, there is a decrease in peak discharge from 10.7% for 2-year return period to 34.5% for 200-year return period due to provision of detention ponds. There is also an increase in flood plain extent from 14.22 to 42.5% for return periods of 10, 25, 50 and 100 years for LULC change between the year 1966 and year 2009. There is decrease in flood extent from 4.5% for 25-year return period to 7.7% for 100-year return period and decrease in total flood hazard area by 14.9% due to provisions of detention pond for LULC of year 2009. The results indicate that for low return period rainfall events, the hydrological impacts are higher due to geographic characteristics of the region. The provision of detention ponds reduces the peak discharge as well as the extent of the flooded area, flood depth and flood hazard considerably. The flood plain maps and flood hazard maps generated in this study can be used by the Municipal Corporation for flood disaster and mitigation planning. The integration of available software models with GIS and remote sensing proves to be very effective for flood disaster and mitigation management planning and measures.     

Assessment of several flood estimation methodologies in Makkah metropolitan area, Saudi Arabia

Estimation of floods in a hydrological basin is essential for efficient flood management and development planning. Several approaches have been proposed to estimate flood peak discharge based on topographic and morphometric characteristics of ungauged hydrological basins. Two global approaches, namely the rational and the curve number methods, along with four national regression models have been compared over Makkah metropolitan area, Saudi Arabia. The curve number methodology has been taken as the basis of comparison due to its precision and wide utilization. Results show that the rational method produces differences equal to 44% in terms of peak discharges. Moreover, the best national regression model gives difference in the order of 18% with respect to the curve number results. Other national models give results very far away from those of the curve number (up to 95%), which can be considered as measures for their awful accuracy. Hence, the curve number is recommended as an optimum methodology for flood estimation, in Makkah city, in case of availability of geological, metrological, land use, and topographic datasets. Otherwise, a specific national regression model (Al-Subai) may be utilized in a simple way.     

GIS-based flood risk assessment in suburban areas: a case study of the Fangshan District,Beijing

Suburban areas have become rapid development zones during China’s current urbanization. Generally, these areas are also regional precipitation centers that are prone to flood disasters. Therefore, it is important to assess the flood risk in suburban areas. In this study, flood risk was defined as the product of hazard and vulnerability based on disaster risk theory. A risk assessment index system was established, and the analytic hierarchy process method was used to determine the index weight. The Fangshan District in Beijing, China, which is an example of a typical suburban area undergoing rapid urbanization, was selected for this study. Six factors were considered in relation to hazard, and three factors were considered for vulnerability. Each indicator was discretized, standardized, weighted, and then combined to obtain the final flood risk map in a geographical information system environment. The results showed that the high and very high risk zones in the Fangshan District were primarily concentrated on Yingfeng Street, Xingcheng Street, Xincheng Street, and Chengguanzhen Street. The comparison to an actual flood disaster suggested that the method was effective and practical. The method can quantitatively reflect the relative magnitude and spatial distribution patterns of flood risk in a region. The method can be applied easily to most suburban areas in China for land use planning and flood risk management.     

Effects of land-use change on nutrient discharges from the Patuxent River watershed

We developed an empirical model integrating nonpoint source (NPS) runoff, point sources (PS), and reservoir management to predict watershed discharges of water, sediment, organic carbon, silicate, nitrogen, and phosphorus to the Patuxent River in Maryland. We estimated NPS discharges with linear models fit to measurements of weekly flow and 10 material concentrations from 22 study watersheds. The independent variables were the proportions of cropland and developed land, physiographic province (Coastal Plain or Piedmont), and time (week). All but one of the NPS models explained between 62% and 83% of the variability among concentration or flow measurements. Geographic factors (land cover and physiographic province) accounted for the explained variability in largely dissolved material concentrations (nitrate [NO₃], silicate [Si], and total nitrogen [TN]), but the explained variability in flow and particulates (sediment and forms of phosphorus) was more strongly related to temporal variability or its interactions with land cover and province. Average concentrations of all materials increased with cropland proportion and also with developed land (except Si), but changes in cropland produced larger concentration shifts than equivalent changes in developed land proportion. Among land cover transitions, conversions between cropland and forest-grassland cause the greatest changes in material discharges, cropland and developed land conversions are intermediate, and developed land and forest-grassland conversions have the weakest effects. Changing land cover has stronger effects on NO₃ and TN in the Piedmont than in the coastal Plain, but for all other materials, the effects of land-use change are greater in the Coastal Plain. We predicted the changes in nutrient load to the estuary under several alternate land cover configurations, including a state planning scenario that extrapolates current patterns of population growth and land development to the year 2020. In that scenario, declines in NPS discharges from reducing cropland are balanced by NPS discharge increases from developing an area almost six times larger than the lost cropland. When PS discharges are included, there are net increases in total water, total phosphorus, and TN discharges.