Problems of regional population growth in Serbia

The paper considers regional differences in population growth in Serbia and highlights the contrast that has emerged between Kosovo and Metohia and the other regions of the country since World War Two. Due to continuing high fertility coupled with declining mortality, growth in Kosovo and Metohia has been three times greater than in Serbia Proper and five times greater than in Voivodina, regions which have been following closely the European demographic transition. Since the population in Kosovo and Metohia is overwhelmingly Albanian these divergent demographic trends are sharpening ethnic tension as the demographic weight of the Serbs decreases in the country as a whole. At the same time the dominance of the Albanians within the province may well contribute to the independence struggle. Since the maintenance of high fertility, with a relatively slow decline - even in comparison with Albania - could be linked with externalities, it is suggested that a solution might be found in more autonomous development for the province which might bring an increase in local responsibility for sustainable development and a decrease in the currently high level of demographic investment. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The women of Kano: internalized stress and the conditions of reproduction, Northern Nigeria

Kano State in northern Nigeria has been presented as a region which has undergone adaptation to rapid demographic growth without adverse ecological effects (Mortimore 1993a). The population has grown by natural increase and by in-migration, fueled partially by growth of the Kano urban and peri-urban zones and sustained by manure-fed upland and irrigated lowland agriculture. This paper presents demographic data for Kano State, collected through the 1990 Demographic and Health Survey (Macro International 1992) for Nigeria, to explore some possible demographic consequences of the population growth observed there. Covered will be sections on women's work and mobility, child nutrition and mortality, birth intervals, and weaning age. By presenting this data, I will suggest two points. First, there is perhaps an alternate hypothesis to the rosy though incomplete picture presented by Mortimore and others. The agricultural transformation in Kano seems to have put progressively more stress on women as domestic producers, which reflects in the demographic data. Second, there is a need for more temporally and spatially robust datasets on health and demography, as well as more concerted efforts to link, via more integrated analyses, agricultural production and health outcomes.     

Spatial exposure aspects contributing to vulnerability and resilience assessments of urban critical infrastructure in a flood and blackout context

Blackouts aggravate the situation during an extreme river-flood event by affecting residents and visitors of an urban area. But also rescue services, fire brigades and basic urban infrastructure such as hospitals have to operate under suboptimal conditions. This paper aims to demonstrate how affected people, critical infrastructure, such as electricity, roads and civil protection infrastructure are intertwined during a flood event, and how this can be analysed in a spatially explicit way. The city of Cologne (Germany) is used as a case study since it is river-flood prone and thousands of people had been affected in the floods in 1993 and 1995. Components of vulnerability and resilience assessments are selected with a focus of analysing exposure to floods, and five steps of analysis are demonstrated using a geographic information system. Data derived by airborne and spaceborne earth observation to capture flood extent and demographic data are combined with place-based information about location and distance of objects. The results illustrate that even fire brigade stations, hospitals and refugee shelters are within the flood scenario area. Methodologically, the paper shows how criticality of infrastructure can be analysed and how static vulnerability assessments can be improved by adding routing calculations. Fire brigades can use this information to improve planning on how to access hospitals and shelters under flooded road conditions.

     

Recovery from demographic shock in the New Länder of Germany

After the fall of the Berlin Wall in November 1989, East Germany experienced a demographic shock as the ensuing insecurity and disorientation of the population was mirrored in their demographic behaviour. The situation is examined with respect to marriage, fertility and mortality. There are now signs of recovery but most people in the New Länder are still traumatised by events: nuptiality and fertility are still extremely low, while mortality is rapidly moving towards West German levels. Future demographic development will very much depend on socio-economic development and the provision of both hard and soft infrastructure conducive to stable partnerships and families since the current 'framework' has proved to be particularly unfriendly to women and children.     

Drought,demography, and destitution: Crisis in the Norte Chico

Growing population pressure, limited natural resources, and recurring droughts are thought to be the chief reasons for the socio-economic backwardness in the Norte Chico region of Chile (29 to 33^o S).Droughts occur with rather high statistical frequency; in recent decades they appear to have become even more frequent. Depletion of the already scant forest resources of the area occured during the nineteenth century, when most of the wooden species were used as firewood, charcoal or fuel for settlements, mines ans smelters. Also during that century, forests and shrubs were cut down in order to make room for wheat cultivatio. At the same time as agricultural exploitaion and mining intensified, increasing sheep and goat herding contributed further to the deterioration of the environment.Disputable is the assumption that the cause of the socio-economic depression in the Norte Chico is the population pressure on limited natural resources. Census figures reveal that the region has not been growing as fast as other regions in the country and that outmigration has constituted a constant demographic drain from the area. The cause for this migration has been not so much the environmental deterioration but the perpetuation of land tenure patterns that stress latifundia and minifundia without allowing for the development of independent mid-size agricultural establishments.To a large degree the backwardness of the Norte Chico is to be blamed not so much on the unwise exploitation of the resources but on the persisting patterns of economic exploitation and social structures.     

Population and poverty in Jamaican deforestation: Integrating satellite and household census data

This study uses MSS data to derive sub-national level deforestation rates at the constituency administrative level for Jamaica for 1987 and 1992. It then investigates the role of poverty and population in driving forest loss during this period by linking these estimates in a GIS with constituency level demographic and socioeconomic census data for the island. OLS regression results support the importance of population pressures and poverty in driving the destruction of Jamaica's forests and the relative contribution to deforestation of their various measures are noted and discussed. In addition to providing information on Jamaica's deforestation attributes, the study demonstrates how remotely sensed data can be used in conjunction with household census data to derive information on human-forest interactions at the sub-national level. A small simulation experiment based on regression results using key variables suggests that under any scenario, the impacts of key social and demographic changes on Jamaica's remaining forest cover may be substantial by the year 2010. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Gypsies in the Czech Republic and the Slovak Republic: Geographic and demographic characteristics

Geographic and demographic characteristics of Gypsies were elaborated on the basis of population census' results in 1970 and 1980. In 1980, there were about 300 000 of Gypsies in Czechoslovakia (2% of the total population). The fast numerical growth of Gypsies becomes a subject of increasing interest of both specialists and large public. According to the prognosis till 2005, in the Czech Republic and the Slovak Republic will be about 495 000 of Gypsies (3% of the total population). The spatial structure of Gypsies is very uneven, they are concentrated mainly in the East Slovakian districts. The differences between Gypsies and other inhabitants in the demographic behaviour are evident from the age structure. Gypsies are demographically young population with the progressive type of the age structure (high proportion of children and low proportion of the aged). Gypsy women have a high level of fertility during the whole childbearing period. The number of live born children per one Gypsy woman was 6,0 in the age group 45–49 (total population 2,3) in 1980. The effort has been made to estimate the expectation of life of Gypsies on the basis of results from population census 1970 and 1980. The probability of death was derived from the probability of survival between 1970 and 1980. In the period 1971–1980 the expectation of life at birth of Gypsy men was 55,3 years and 59,5 years for Gypsy women. The level of life expectancy like this we can find in developing countries of the Third World. Changes in the demographic behaviour occur as permanent changes only on the basis of the overall social and economic development. The consequences of this development appear usually after a certain delay, measured by the length of generation, not by calendar years.     

Disaster resilience in a flood-impacted rural Australian town

This paper reports exploratory research conducted in a flood-impacted rural Australian town to identify the factors which residents perceived as supporting community resilience to disaster. There is a gap in this research area centred in the Australian disaster context. Since Australia is predicted to be highly impacted by the effects of climate change in the form of an increased incidence of flooding, an urgent need exists to examine the factors that confer resilience to disaster-impacted localities to inform suitable disaster mitigation and adaptation policies for the future. Because of the complexity of community resilience and its interrelationship with individual resilience, a multi-method approach was used: a demographic study to assess community stability and functioning before and after the flood disaster, focus group interviews to obtain from community members their views on what supported them and their community resilience and a survey to generalise the interview findings. Our operating hypothesis was that individuals remaining in the town post-flood were likely to be resilient to the flood disaster. The demographic study results pointed to a resilient community after the floods as they reflected stability in population numbers and socio-economic indicators. The interviews and survey showed that individual resilience was promoted by social connectedness and a sense of place, a factor that was also negatively linked to the desire to relocate from the community. The use of structural equation modelling of our results provided verification of prior research findings about the role of sense of place in supporting individuals’ resilience. Results are discussed in the context of future climate change adaptation policy.     

A demographic model for Palaeolithic technological evolution: The case of East Asia and the Movius Line

The Pleistocene record of East Asia continues to pose controversial questions for palaeoanthropology, especially with regard to Palaeolithic technological patterns. In recent years, an increased understanding of the effect of demography on cultural transmission has improved our understanding of the incidence, proliferation, and elaboration of technological traditions. Here, we present a generalised null model of Lower–Middle Palaeolithic technological evolution, which expressly links cultural transmission theory and demographic factors (i.e. population size, density, and social interconnectedness). Consistent with our model, Africa exhibits evidence of major technological innovations during the Early to Middle Pleistocene, due to a constant source of population and growth due to accumulation through time. In comparison, Pleistocene East Asian assemblages are dominated by Mode 1-type technologies, and only a few localized occurrences of bifacial technology are currently known. We detail evidence suggesting that during much of the Pleistocene a combination of biogeographical, topographical, and dispersal factors are likely to have resulted in relatively lower effective population sizes in East Asian hominins compared with western portions of the Old World, particularly Africa. Thus, the Movius Line – as is the case with its namesake ‘Wallace's line’ – must be examined in terms of its biogeographical context, if the divergent evolutionary trajectories of entities either side of it are to be understood. Most parsimoniously, the Movius Line sensu lato is thus a ‘line’ which represents the crossing of a demographic threshold. Under the parameters of our (testable) null model, geographically and temporally sporadic occurrences of bifacial technology in East Asia are the product of short-lived instances of technological convergence. As a consequence, the in situ evolution of Levallois (Mode 3) was inhibited in East Asia due to the constraints of relatively smaller effective population sizes.     

Modernization of the migrant women in Dhaka,Bangladesh: analysis of some demographic variables

The author analyzes the demographic variables as signes of urban adaptation and modernization by poor females as a result of the influence of rural-urban migration. The migrant females show their ability and change or modify their rural values in terms of various demographic issues by living in the urban areas. They are able to modernize themselves by adopting new knowledge and can develop individual thinking against the traditional values as well as maintaining some traditions in the city. They develop practical ideas and self-consciousness with respect to life and family.     

Using web demographics to model population change of Vietnamese-Americans in Texas between 2000 and 2009

With respect to the great wealth of information available online, the Internet can be viewed as a gigantic database with diverse resources. One of the pressing issues is to investigate the effectiveness and usefulness of the available information over the Internet. This research modeled the population change of Vietnamese-Americans (VA) in Texas from 2000 to 2009 by obtaining web demographic data from the Internet. The project objective is to pilot study a novel approach to conducting online “census” by using Web 2.0 technologies and to investigate the effectiveness of web data for GIS-based demographic application. The solicited VA demographics were geocoded at both county and census tract levels and compared with the Census 2000 demographics in the Geographic Information Systems. Spatial and statistical analyses were used to explore the spatial distribution of VA and to model their population change between 2000 and 2009. The findings of this study include: (1) in general, there are significant differences in the spatial distribution of the VA population between the web demographics and Census 2000 at both county and census tract levels, (2) the Hoover Indices of VA population in Texas at 2000 and 2009 revealed a trend of deconcentration which conforms to the general rural-urban-suburban migration among major metropolitan areas in Texas. This study sheds new insights to using web demographic data for population predictions and applications to plan services for ethnic groups.     

Exploring the spread of methamphetamine problems within California, 1980 to 2006

The introduction and spread of high potency methamphetamine has led to dramatic increases in drug-related problems in California. Prior research suggests that drug abuse rates are related to local demographic and economic characteristics, law enforcement activities, and sentencing practices. Methamphetamine abuse in particular has been shown to be reduced by laws regulating the raw materials needed for its production. This research models the regional effects of such laws on the spatio-temporal patterns of growth of methamphetamine-related problems across California from 1980 to 2006. Amphetamine-related arrests and hospital discharges related to amphetamine abuse/dependence were assembled for California counties over the years 1980–2006. Varying-parameter Bayesian space–time models were used to relate the implementation of major laws controlling the distribution of methamphetamine precursors to observed patterns of arrests and discharges and to allow such associations to vary by location. The models used conditionally autoregressive (CAR) Bayesian spatial priors to allow spatial correlation in estimation of county-specific growth in these measures over three distinct time periods: before the 1989 law, between the 1989 and 1997 laws, and after the 1997 law. Growth of arrests and discharges were related to demographic and economic indicators to determine geographic areas more or less susceptible to the spread of methamphetamine problems. Although both problem measures increased during all three periods, each of the precursor laws was associated with short-term reductions in the growth of arrests and discharges. Growth was greatest in central California counties prior to 1989 and increased in coastal counties in later years. From 1980 to 1989 growth was highest for counties with low incomes and high proportions of white residents, while 1989–1997 growth was highest in counties with fewer whites and more Hispanics. Growth after 1997 was not significantly associated with county characteristics. This research demonstrates that the precursor laws did suppress the growth of methamphetamine related arrests and hospital discharges. It also demonstrates specific geographic patterns in the growth of methamphetamine arrests and abuse across California during this time. Early patterns of growth were related to economic and demographic characteristics, while later patterns were not. This suggests that some counties were uniquely susceptible to the early spread of the methamphetamine epidemic, although problems eventually grew dramatically in all California counties.     

Perspectives of Natural Disasters in East and South Asia,and the Pacific Island States: Socio-economic Correlates and Needs Assessment

The regions of East and South Asia, and the Pacific Islands are among the most-hazardprone areas in the world. Because of this, during the last century, most of the humancasualties of `natural-triggered' disasters have taken place in this region. This circumstance therefore has become a major global humanitarian concern. Another major concern, specifically for the donor agencies, is the damage sustained by infrastructure resulting from environmental disasters. These recurrent loses take away a significant proportion of the cumulative economic gains accrued from development investments over many years.Stepwise multiple regression results substantiated the fact that many of the socio-economic and demographic variables significantly influence disaster-related deaths and injuries in this part of the world. A comparative temporal analysis has shown that, over the past two decades, demographic variables have become prominent predictors of disaster-loss in South, Southeast and East Asian and the Pacific states.Many countries of the region are lagging behind in understanding and recognizing thebroader scope of disaster mitigation and management. Emerging needs and awarenessamong the decision-makers and the general public, however, have prompted institutionsin many countries to initiate a critical review of the prevailing approaches. Thecountry-specific disaster-management capacities and needs in the region vary widely.There are many differences in historical courses, institutional and administrative settings, sociocultural characteristics, as well as political and economic systems. Development of a common institutional framework for the region, therefore, seems unfeasible. Based upon a regional review, it has become clear that the research calls for improving the understanding of the significance of disaster mitigation and management in light of sustainable development and the emerging global issues. In addition, aspects of human resource development to enhance institutional mitigation and response capacities are emphasized.     

Natural to anthropogenic forcing in the Holocene evolution of three coastal lagoons (Caldas da Rainha valley, western Portugal)

In the coast of Central Portugal three lagoons were created by the Holocene flooding of diapiric-related depressions but experienced afterwards a significant sediment accumulation. Fast environmental and morphological changes after the Middle Holocene were clearly forced by anthropogenic activities since the Middle Ages and show a strong feedback on the human communities. Erosion in the studied watersheds depends on climatic and anthropic changes; especially, demographic rises increase agriculture and deforestation in the watersheds, and sedimentation in the lagoons. The region was successively occupied by ethnic groups since the Neolithic (including Romans, Sueves, Visigoths and Muslims), but the main changes were largely due to anthropic forcing following the Christian Reconquest by the Kingdom of Portugal. In fact, during the Middle Ages and Renaissance the area had intense nautical, fishing and agricultural activities, even if reduced during the 14th century crisis. Later, due to severe sediment accumulation and shoaling, sailing was drastically reduced and most of the area drowned in the maximum transgression was claimed to farming. It is also noteworthy that the social evolution and sediment entrainment in the watersheds appear to be in tune with climatic trends deduced after regional and global data. In synthesis, we conclude that the human activities during the last millennium greatly accelerated the natural silting trend of the lagoons.     

Economic development and population distribution in Albania

This article analyses the relationship between internal migration patterns and regional economic development in present-day Albania. Using demographic data migration figures were calculated for the period 1965–1971. These figures indicate that there is a Strong tendency for migration from the peripheral areas to the industrial triangle of Durrës-Tirana-Elbasan, and to the fertile farming area of the coastal lowlands which used to be malarial swamps. Present government policy however is directing growth away from the largest centres towards both the smaller centres and rural areas. Recent aims have been to achieve as even a spread of population and economic activity as possible.     

Contextualizing social vulnerability: findings from case studies across Europe

Social vulnerability is a term that has been widely used in the natural hazards literature for quite a few years now. Yet, regardless of how scholars define the term, the approaches and indicators they use remain contested. This article presents findings from social vulnerability assessments conducted in different case studies of flood events in Europe (Germany, Italy and the UK). The case studies relied upon a common set of comparable indicators, but they also adopted a context-sensitive, qualitative approach. A shared finding across the case studies was that it was not possible to identify a common set of socio-economic–demographic indicators to explain social vulnerability of groups and/or individuals for all phases of the disastrous events. Similarly, network-related indicators as well as location- and event-specific indicators did not have the relevance we expected them to have. The results underline that vulnerability is a product of specific spatial, socio-economic–demographic, cultural and institutional contexts imposing not only specific challenges to cross-country research concerning social vulnerability to flooding but also to attempts at assessing social vulnerability in general. The study ends with some reflections upon the methodological, practical and theoretical implications of our findings.     

From sprawl to compactness and back: population dynamics (1848–2011) and the economic structure of a Mediterranean city

In the recent decades southern European cities experienced morphological changes and a demographic transition towards zero (or negative) growth and aging. Population dynamics shifted from the impressive growth of the post-industrial period into recent de-concentration processes determining the spillover of commercial and residential settlements across the surrounding rural areas. Based on long-term demographic data, the present study hypothesizes that urban expansion did not follow a one-way linear path from compactness to dispersion while reflecting differentiated growth patterns based on the specific socioeconomic context at the local scale. Along a sufficiently long time period non-linear expansion waves alternating settlement densification and scattering are expected to be found especially in complex urban contexts such as those developed in the Mediterranean region. This hypothesis was tested for a paradigmatic case study in southern Europe (Athens, Greece) using demographic data covering 160 years (1848–2011). Urban growth in Athens was assessed through the analysis of long-term census data made available on a district level. These data provide information on the spatial distribution of resident population and characterize distinct expansion waves according to the dominant socioeconomic context. Results of the study were discussed in the light of the debate on future development of the Mediterranean cities and the (changing) economic relations with the surrounding region.     

Population pressure, agricultural intensification and changes in rural systems in Bangladesh

Sustainable agricultural growth is the key to rural system changes that include changes in rural bio-physical environment, economic infrastructure and social conditions. The present study has examined the temporal changes in 18 selected indicators of rural systems in Bangladesh during the period 1975-2000, and explored the influences of demographic, market forces, environmental, institutional and technological factors inducing and mediating such changes. An analysis of 64 district level published census data showed significant increase in agricultural intensity, cropping patterns, land productivity and farm income; decline in labor and technological productivities; and major improvement in rural housing, economic and social conditions during this period. Spatially, major agricultural growth and rural development were observed in districts with high population density, less constrained environments, and better access to markets, irrigation canals, and capital loans.     

Effects of social and climatic factors on building activity in the Czech lands between 1450 and 1950: a dendrochronological analysis

The development of settlement and building activity is the result of socioeconomic, political and demographic changes in the past. However, accurate information on temporal variation in building activity is rather limited. Dendrochronological databases containing dated historical wooden constructions provide an important resource. We used 6514 tree-felling dates to reconstruct building activity in the Czech lands for the period 1450–1950. Comparing felling dates with historical events demonstrated that building activity was negatively associated with intense wars, particularly during the Thirty Years' War (1618–1648). After the Peace of Westphalia (1648), socioeconomic renewal and demographic growth were reflected in an upsurge of building activity, especially ecclesiastical buildings. While the construction of ecclesiastical and noble buildings culminated around the 1720s, rural buildings peaked in the 1780s and the 1820s. Although no direct effect of climate was demonstrated, adverse climatic conditions leading to harvest failures and subsequent famines (e.g. the ‘Hunger Years’ 1770–1772) significantly contributed to declines in building activity. In contrast, a higher number of felling dates were detected when strong and/or frequent windstorms occurred. This study provides a comprehensive understanding of building activity in Central Europe and advocates the use of dendrochronological databases for the investigation of human activities in history.     

Patterns and trends in the perception of seismic risk. Case study: Bucharest Municipality/Romania

This research looks at the very nature of perception of seismic risk, an issue that is not only academically important, but also it can save lives and reduce injury and community costs. The background idea is that citizens in big cities, vulnerable to seismic hazard are living with latent and permanent concerns about a possible earthquake. We were interested in revealing significant aspects of Bucharest citizens’ orientations and tendencies in relation to the possible seismic event. Bucharest, the capital of Romania, is exposed to the greatest seismic hazard compared with other European capitals. The dimensions of study were: the anticipations of seism occurrence, the behavior during the event, evaluations of consequences, support factors, and individual vulnerability. This article is an example of the low cost approach on a sample of 190 citizens, understood as an exercise in attempting to relate population characteristics to various aspects of risk perception. The methodology used was based on a field investigation, where the research agents’ applied one questionnaire containing free/post codified/fan answers concerning: demographic variables, the buildings’ features, and perceptions about the possible earthquake event. The findings of this study showed that the hazard perception significantly associates with aspects concerning the subjects’ orientation toward institutional factors/human relations/negativism, and toward financial/material/moral support in case of disaster etc. It is hoped that this issue will serve to inspire further investigations into this very important and socially sensitive field, due to the fact that hazard analysis and mitigation would be more effective when it takes into account the human dimension of disasters.