Implications for the water level change triggered moderate (M ≥ 4.0) earthquakes in Lake Van basin, Eastern Turkey

The water level in Lake Van has shown alternating rises and decreases in history, causing economical, environmental and social problems over the littoral area. The water level changes were obtained to be in the order of 100 m between 18000 and 1000 B.C., in the order of 10 m between 1000 B.C. and 500 A.D. and relatively stable and fluctuating in the order of a few metres during the past 1500 years. The most recent change of the water level took place between 1987 and 1996, during which the water level increased episodically about 2 m and its altitude changed from approximately 1648.3 m to about 1650.2 m. All these changes were mainly related to climate changes. In this study, the water level changes in the lake after 1860 are compared with the seismic activity of faults lying close to the basin. Temporal correlations of seismicity with the water level changes are very persuasive and dramatic, indicating hydrogeological triggering of the earthquakes. This study shows that 14 M ≥ 5.0 earthquakes and increasing number of 4.0 ≤ M < 5.0 earthquakes accompanied or followed the dramatic (about 1 m or larger) changes of the annual mean of the water level in the lake and that there was a tendency of M ≥ 4 earthquakes to occur between November and February, during which the lake level is low within a year.     

A distinction between ice-pushed and ice-lifted landforms on lacustrine and marine coasts

Study of a small lake, Second Roach Pond, in Maine, U.S.A. clarifies the distinction between shoreline features created by ice push which occurs on both lacustrine and marine coasts, and those created by ice lift related to tidal action in the marine environment. Ice lifting occurred as littoral sediments were frozen into the lake ice, followed by a rise in water level due to damming of the lake before the nival melt each spring. In the period 1905 to 1969 prominent barricades were constructed by this means. A classification based on this distinction is proposed. Ice-pushed landforms include ramparts, ridges in coarse and fine sediments, stone pavements, ice keel grooves, pushed boulder grooves, and tails off promontories. Ice-lift features include boulder barricades, perched stones, stone garlands, and ice keel depressions.     

The greatest soda-water lake in the world and how it is influenced by climatic change

Global wanning resulting from increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the local climate changes that follow affect local hydrospheric and biospheric environments. These include lakes that serve surrounding populations as a fresh water resource or provide regional navigation. Although there may well be steady water-quality alterations in the lakes with time, many of these are very much climate-change dependent. During cool and wet periods, there may be water-level rises that may cause economic losses to agriculture and human activities along the lake shores. Such rises become nuisances especially in the case of shoreline settlements and low-lying agricultural land. Lake Van, in eastern Turkey currently faces such problems due to water-level rises. The lake is unique for at least two reasons. First, it is a closed basin with no natural or artificial outlet and second, its waters contain high concentrations of soda which prevent the use of its water as a drinking or agricultural water source. Consequently, the water level fluctuations are entirely dependent on the natural variability of the hydrological cycle and any climatic change affects the drainage basin. In the past, the lake-level fluctuations appear to have been rather systematic and unrepresentable by mathematical equations. Herein, monthly polygonal climate diagrams are constructed to show the relation between lake level and some meteorological variables, as indications of significant and possible climatic changes. This procedure is applied to Lake Van, eastern Turkey, and relevant interpretations are presented.     

Cluster regression model and level fluctuation features of Van Lake, Turkey

Lake water levels change under the influences of natural and/or anthropogenic environmental conditions. Among these influences are the climate change, greenhouse effects and ozone layer depletions which are reflected in the hydrological cycle features over the lake drainage basins. Lake levels are among the most significant hydrological variables that are influenced by different atmospheric and environmental conditions. Consequently, lake level time series in many parts of the world include nonstationarity components such as shifts in the mean value, apparent or hidden periodicities. On the other hand, many lake level modeling techniques have a stationarity assumption. The main purpose of this work is to develop a cluster regression model for dealing with nonstationarity especially in the form of shifting means. The basis of this model is the combination of transition probability and classical regression technique. Both parts of the model are applied to monthly level fluctuations of Lake Van in eastern Turkey. It is observed that the cluster regression procedure does preserve the statistical properties and the transitional probabilities that are indistinguishable from the original data.     

人类活动对洱海的影响及对策分析

针对洱海生态环境问题,１９９６－１９９７年间通过系列动态资料分析,环境现状调查和水,土,生物取样测试等方法进行湖泊人为影响和对策感化研究。结果显示１９８０－１９９６年扶持续降低水位给洱海下灾难性后果;近年来资源过量开发和面源污染又使洱海面临富营养化威胁。     

Stage level,volume and time‐frequency information content of Lake Tana using stochastic and wavelet analysis methods

Lake Tana is the largest fresh water body situated in the north‐western highlands of Ethiopia. In addition to its ecological services, it serves for local transport, electric power generation, fishing, recreational purposes, and source of dry season irrigation water supply. Evidence shows that the lake has dried at least once at about 15,000–17,000 before present owing to a combination of high evaporation and low precipitation events. Past attempts to understand and simulate historical fluctuation of Lake Tana based on simplistic water balance approach of inflow, outflow, and storage have failed to capture well‐known events of drawdown and rise of the lake that have happened in the last 44 years. This study tested different stochastic methods of lake level and volume simulation for supporting Lake Tana operational planning decision support. Three stochastic methods (perturbations approach, Monte Carlo methods, and wavelet analysis) were employed for lake level and volume simulation, and the results were compared with the stage level measurements. Forty‐four years of daily, monthly, and mean annual lake level data have shown a Gaussian variation with goodness of fit at 0.01 significant levels of the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test. The stochastic simulations predicted the lake stage level of the 1972, 1984, and 2002/2003 historical droughts 99% of the time. The information content (frequency) of fluctuation of Lake Tana for various periods was resolved using Wigner's Time‐Frequency Decomposition method. The wavelet analysis agreed with the perturbations and Monte Carlo simulations resolving the time (1970s, 1980s, and 2000s) in which low frequency and high spectral power fluctuation has occurred. The Monte Carlo method has shown its superiority for risk analysis over perturbation and deterministic method whereas wavelet analysis reconstructed historical record of lake stage level at daily and monthly time scales. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Inter‐annual changes of alpine inland lake water storage on the Tibetan Plateau: Detection and analysis by integrating satellite altimetry and optical imagery

The effects of climate change have a substantial influence on the extremely vulnerable hydrologic environment of the Tibetan Plateau. The estimation of alpine inland lake water storage variations is essential to modeling the alpine hydrologic process and evaluating water resources. Due to a lack of historical hydrologic observations in this remote and inaccessible region, such estimations also fill a gap in studies on the continuous inter‐annual and seasonal changes in the inland lake water budget. Using Lake Siling Co as a case study, we derived a time‐series of lake surface extents from MODIS imagery, and scarce lake water level data from the satellite altimetry of two sensors (ICESat/GLAS and ENVISAT RA‐2) between 2001 and 2011. Then, based on the fact that the rise in lake water levels is tightly dependent on the expansion of the lake extent, we established an empirical model to simulate a continuous lake water level dataset corresponding to the lake area data during the lake's unfreezing period. Consequently, from three dimensions, the lake surface area, water level and water storage variations consistently revealed that Lake Siling Co exhibited a dramatic trend to expand, particularly from 2001 to 2006. Based on the statistical model and lake area measurements from Landsat images since 1972, the extrapolated lake water level and water storage indicate that the lake has maintained a continual expansion process and that the cumulative water storage variations during 1999–2011 account for 66.84% of the total lake water budget (26.87 km³) from 1972 to 2011. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Tidal response to sea level rise and bathymetric changes in the German Wadden Sea

Ocean Dynamics - Tidally dominated coasts are directly affected not only by projected rise in mean sea level, but also by changes in tidal dynamics due to sea level rise and bathymetric changes. By...     

西藏扎布耶盐湖水位Winters和ARIMA模型分析

由于温室效应,气温加速上升,我国西部干旱一半干旱盐湖区盐湖水位出现加速下降或上升等变化．藏北高原湖泊众多,但都缺少湖水位的人工观测记录．中国地质科学院盐湖中心自1990年始在西藏扎布耶盐湖建立了长期科学观测站,进行水位动态观测,积累了连续13年珍贵的数据．如何根据湖泊水位历史记录数据,准确的定量预测水位中短期变化,是关系着盐湖资源开发命运的大事．本文用Winters线性和季节性指数平滑法、ARIMA乘积季节模型两种时间序列分析方法,根据西藏扎布耶盐湖1991年1月-2003年12月水位变化的时间序列数据,探讨了两种时间序列数据的预测方法在盐湖水位动态变化预测中的应用．     

A ∼300-year record of environmental changes in Lake Issyk-Kul,Central Asia,inferred from lipid biomarkers in sediments

We measured lipid biomarkers (n-alkanes [n-ALKs] and n-alkanoic acids [n-FAs]) and other components of organic matter (total organic carbon [TOC] and total nitrogen [TN]) in a sediment core from Lake Issyk-Kul, Central Asia, to infer environmental changes in and around the lake during the last ∼300 years. Stratigraphic shifts in lipid biomarkers, TOC and TN, indicate three distinct environmental stages in the lake over the past three centuries: (1) Stage I (1670s–1790s, 51–36 cm sediment depth) corresponds to a period of stable hydrology in the lake, reflected by relatively constant concentrations of n-ALKs and n-FAs and values of related indexes. The interval was a period of relatively low trophic state. Natural factors were the main controls on environmental changes in and around the lake. (2) Stage II (1800s–1970s, 35–15 cm sediment depth) was a period when human activities began to exert influence on the environment in and around the lake. Enhanced agricultural exploitation and greater regional rainfall resulted in delivery to the lake of more land-derived lipids. Logging activity around the lake altered the vegetation, as revealed by shifts in C₂₇/C₃₃ ratios and the average chain length (ACL₂₇₋₃₃). A significant decline in lake level caused by excessive water consumption impacted aquatic macrophytes, as revealed by a reduction in macrophyte indicators. Lower nutrient concentrations were inferred for this period. (3) Stage III (1980s–present, 14–0 cm sediment depth) corresponds to a period of accelerating eutrophication. Before year 2000, lake level declined steadily as a result of low rainfall (drought) and high evaporation, which exerted a strong influence on the lake condition. In addition, anthropogenic activities contributed to lake eutrophication. After 2000, the lake experienced a dramatic increase in trophic state, characterized by high algal productivity, as indicated by greater TN, short-chain n-ALKs and short-chain n-FAs. The change was probably caused by flourishing tourism around the lake. In summary, environmental changes in and around Lake Issyk-Kul during the past ∼300 years were originally driven largely by natural factors such as shifts in regional precipitation amount. Human activities (e.g. logging, agriculture, water extraction, and more recently, tourism) took on increasingly important roles during the last two centuries, affecting watershed vegetation, the lake primary producer community and lake trophic status. Changes recorded in the lake sediments over the last ∼300 years are in good agreement with historical records.     

Simulating the response of a closed‐basin lake to recent climate changes in tropical West Africa (Lake Bosumtwi,Ghana)

Historical changes in the level of Lake Bosumtwi, Ghana, have been simulated using a catchment‐scale hydrological model in order to assess the importance of changes in climate and land use on lake water balance on a monthly basis for the period 1939–2004. Several commonly used models for computing evaporation in data‐sparse regions are compared, including the Penman, the energy budget, and the Priestley–Taylor methods. Based on a comparison with recorded lake level variations, the model with the energy‐budget evaporation model subcomponent is most effective at reproducing observed lake level variations using regional climate records. A sensitivity analysis using this model indicates that Lake Bosumtwi is highly sensitive to changes in precipitation, cloudiness and temperature. However, the model is also sensitive to changes in runoff related to vegetation, and this factor needs to be considered in simulating lake level variations. Both interannual and longer‐term changes in lake level over the last 65 years appear to have been caused primarily by changes in precipitation, though the model also suggests that the drop in lake level over the last few decades has been moderated by changes in cloudiness and temperature over that time. Based on its effectiveness at simulating the magnitude and rate of lake level response to changing climate over the historical record, this model offers a potential future opportunity to examine the palaeoclimatic factors causing past lake level fluctuations preserved in the geological record at Lake Bosumtwi. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

滇西北地区高山湖泊沃迪错近两百年来环境变化及枝角类群落响应

区域增温和大气氮沉降作用已成为高山湖泊面临的重要环境胁迫,已有高山湖泊生物群落响应的长期模式研究主要集中于藻类而缺乏更高营养级生物(如浮游动物)的系统调查。本研究选择滇西北地区深水型的高山湖泊沃迪错开展沉积物调查,通过多指标分析(总氮、总磷、叶绿素a、氮稳定同位素等)并结合区域气候重建记录,识别近两百年来该湖泊及流域环境的变化历史,进一步利用枝角类群落指标(物种组成、生物量等)定量评价了湖泊生物群落的响应模式与驱动因子。结果表明,湖泊营养水平(如总氮浓度)和初级生产力(叶绿素a浓度等)在过去近两百年总体呈上升趋势。相关分析显示,大气氮沉降和流域外源输入是影响总氮上升的主要因素,同时区域增温和营养盐富集促进了湖泊初级生产力的不断上升。自1960s以来区域升温明显,湖泊营养水平和叶绿素a浓度呈现加速上升的趋势。钻孔中枝角类群落以浮游属种(Daphnia longispina等)为优势种,在1900AD以前D.longispina相对丰度较为稳定(40.83%±8.02%),之后出现下降趋势且在1948—1965年间明显下降,之后再次明显上升并成为主要优势种。排序分析显示,气温、叶绿素a和总...     

湖北梁子湖近百年来环境演变历史及驱动因素分析

湖泊生态系统的修复必须建立在历史生态环境演化过程与驱动机制认识的基础之上.针对草型湖泊演化历史研究相对不足的现状,以长江中游典型草型湖泊梁子湖为研究对象,结合210Pb和137Cs年代测试,通过对沉积柱高分辨率的多指标分析(硅藻、元素地球化学和粒度)以及流域历史资料重建近百年来梁子湖生态环境的演化过程,并在此基础上利用冗余分析定量区分影响该湖泊生态环境演化的关键驱动因子.结果显示,沉积物总磷和重金属元素Cu是影响该湖泊生态环境演化的2个显著变量,它们分别单独解释硅藻组合的12.7%和8.5%变率.这表明近百年来人类活动引起的营养输入对梁子湖生态环境演化起关键性作用,而重金属污染也是影响梁子湖环境演变的重要因子.本研究结果可以为梁子湖及长江中下游其他类似湖泊的环境治理提供科学依据.     

A sensitivity analysis of lake water level response to changes in climate and river regimes

Lake water level regimes are influenced by climate, hydrology and land use. Intensive land use has led to a decline in lake levels in many regions, with direct impacts on lake hydrology, ecology and ecosystem services. This study examined the role of climate and river flow regime in controlling lake regimes using three different lakes with different hydraulic characteristics (volume-inflow ratio, CIR). The regime changes in the lakes were determined for five different river inflows and five different climate patterns (hot-arid, tropical, moderate, cold-arid, cold-wet), giving 75 different combinations of governing factors in lake hydrology. The input data were scaled to unify them for lake comparisons. By considering the historical lake volume fluctuations, the duration (number of months) of lake volume in different ‘wetness’ regimes from ‘dry’ to ‘wet’ was used to develop a new index for lake regime characterisation, ‘Degree of Lake Wetness’ (DLW). DLW is presented as two indices: DLW₁, providing a measure of lake filling percentage based on observed values and lake geometry, and DLW₂, providing an index for lake regimes based on historical fluctuation patterns. These indices were used to classify lake types based on their historical time series for variable climate and river inflow. The lake response time to changes in hydrology or climate was evaluated. Both DLW₁ and DLW₂ were sensitive to climate and hydrological changes. The results showed that lake level in high CIR systems depends on climate, whereas in systems with low CIR it depends more on river regime.     

Research Note: Low-frequency pneumatic seismic sources

Pneumatic seismic sources, commonly known as airguns, have been serving us well for decades, but there is an increasing need for sources with improved low-frequency signal and reduced environmental impact. In this paper, we present a new pneumatic source that is designed to achieve these goals by operating with lower pressures and larger volumes. The new source will release more air creating larger bubbles with longer bubble periods than airguns. The release of the air will be tuned so that the rise time will be longer and the sound pressure level and its slope will be lower. Certain engineering features will eliminate cavitation. Larger bubbles increase low-frequency content of the signal, longer rise times decrease mid-frequency content and the elimination of cavitation reduces high-frequency content. We have not yet built a full-scale version of the new source. However, we have manufactured a small-scale low-pressure source incorporating most of the engineering features, and tested it in a lake. Here, we present the lake data that, as expected, show a significant reduction in the sound pressure level, increase in rise time, decrease in slope and decrease in high-frequency content while maintaining the same low-frequency content when the source prototype is operated at low pressure compared with high pressure. Synthetic data produced by numerical modelling of the full-scale proposed pneumatic source suggest that the new source will improve the low-frequency content and can produce geophysically useful signal down to 1 Hz.     

Evaluation of Gravity and Aeromagnetic Anomalies for the Deep Structure and Possibility of Hydrocarbon Potential of the Region Surrounding Lake Van,Eastern Anatolia,Turkey

The North Anatolian Fault (NAF) is not observed on the surface beyond 40 km southeast of Karliova town toward the western shoreline of Lake Van. Various amplitudes of gravity and aeromagnetic anomalies are observed around the lake and surrounding region. In the gravity anomaly map, contour intensity is observed from the north of Mus city center toward Lake Van. There is a possibility that the NAF extends from here to the lake. Because there is no gravity data within the lake, the extension of the NAF is unknown and uncertain in the lake and to the east. Meanwhile, it is observed from the aeromagnetic anomalies that there are several positive and negative amplitude anomalies aligned around a slightly curved line in the east–west direction. The same curvature becomes much clearer in the analytic signal transformation map. The volcanic mountains of Nemrut and Suphan, and magnetic anomalies to the east of the Lake Van are all lined up and extended with this slightly curved line, provoking thoughts that a fault zone that was not previously mapped may exist. The epicenter of the major earthquake event that occurred on October 23, 2011 is located on this fault zone. The fault plane solution of this earthquake indicates a thrust fault in the east–west direction, consistent with the results of this study. Volcanic mountains in this zone are accepted as still being active because of gas seepages from their calderas, and magnetic anomalies are caused by buried causative bodies, probably magmatic intrusions. Because of its magmatic nature, this zone could be a good prospect for geothermal energy exploration. In this study, the basement of the Van Basin was also modelled three-dimensionally (3D) in order to investigate its hydrocarbon potential, because the first oil production in Anatolia was recorded around the Kurzot village in this basin. According to the 3D modelling results, the basin is composed of three different depressions aligned in the N–S direction and many prospective structures were observed between and around these depressions where the depocenter depths may reach down to 10 km.     

陕北定边盐湖卤水水位历史演变及其气候指示意义(1265—1949年)

受自然环境和资料限制的原因,中国西北的季风边缘区内的湖泊千-百年时间尺度演变序列重建工作存在不足.历史文献中的湖泊演变信息丰富,有效利用可较好地解决这一问题.本文通过梳理历史文献记录的定边盐湖采盐方式资料,反演历史时期定边盐湖卤水水位,重建公元1265-1949年陕北定边盐湖卤水水位演变序列,该序列较好地指示出公元12...     

抚仙湖北部沉水植被演变规律及其生态指示意义（1987—2020年）

抚仙湖有近210亿m³的优质淡水资源,具有重要战略价值,但是近年来出现水质退化的现象.沉水植被是湖泊生态系统功能维持的重要生物门类,其演变过程能反映和影响整个生态系统的变化,目前还缺乏对抚仙湖沉水植被长期连续地观测记录.本文基于Landsat遥感数据分析了抚仙湖北部沉水植被面积的动态变化,结合气候变化和水质水文要素分析发现：抚仙湖北部湖区沉水植物在1987—2020年间存在先减少后增加的变化趋势;1987—1995年,沉水植物分布面积约占北部湖区面积的1.64%;1996—2010年北部湖区沉水植被分布面积缩减,湖泊处于高水位低营养状态,水位上升是此时期沉水植物面积减少的主要原因;2011—2020年,水位降低,营养增加,营养和水位的共同作用导致抚仙湖北部湖区沉水植物面积显著增加.沉水植物覆盖度变化伴随着沉水植被以苦草为优势种群转为以穗花狐尾藻为优势种群,沉水植被结构转向耐污染性更强的属种.通过抚仙湖北部湖区沉水植被发育与营养、水位等驱动因子的关系分析,建议现阶段需要严格限制入湖氮磷排放,强化水生植被的长期动态监测,构建水量、水质、水生态一体化监测体系,并开展抚仙...     

Neural network and wavelet conjunction model for modelling monthly level fluctuations in Turkey

This paper proposes the application of a conjunction model (neuro‐wavelet) for forecasting monthly lake levels. The neuro‐wavelet (NW) conjunction model is improved combining two methods, discrete wavelet transform and artificial neural networks. The application of the methodology is presented for the Lake Van, which is the biggest lake in Turkey, and Lake Egirdir. The accuracy of the NW model is investigated for 1‐ and 6‐month‐ahead lake level forecasting. The root mean square errors, mean absolute relative errors and determination coefficient statistics are used for evaluating the accuracy of NW models. The results of the proposed models are compared with those of the neural networks. In the 1‐month‐ahead lake level forecasting, the NW conjunction model reduced the root mean square errors and mean absolute relative errors by 87–34% and 86–31% for the Van and Egirdir lakes, respectively. In the 6‐month‐ahead lake level forecasting, the NW conjunction model reduced the root mean square errors and mean absolute relative errors by 34–48% and 30‐46% for the Van and Egirdir lakes, respectively. The comparison results indicate that the suggested model could significantly increase the short‐ and long‐term forecast accuracy. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.