青藏高原植被变化特征及其对气候变化的影响

利用1982-2001年美国国家航天航空局(NASA)的归一化植被指数(NDVI)资料以及55个青藏高原地区气象台站实测的最高气温、最低气温、平均气温和降水资料,初步分析了青藏高原地区各季节植被变化特征及其对气候变化的影响,通过分析发现,各季节青藏高原地区NDVI均以增长为主.特别是高原南部、北部和西部等地区增加明显,高原中东部地区植被有所减少.通过相关分析和台站概率相关分析发现,高原冬季和春季NDVI与后期春季和夏季的最高气温、最低气温、平均气温和降水有较好的正相关关系,但有的表现在相关系数比较显著,有的表现为概率相关较明显.     

青藏高原城镇化格局的时空分异特征及影响因素

研究青藏高原城镇化格局的时空分异及其影响因素,有利于推动青藏高原现代人类活动时空过程的认知,对青藏高原就地就近城镇化及可持续发展具有参考意义。根据历次人口普查数据,本研究构建青藏高原县市尺度城镇化空间数据集,参考城镇化发展阶段,采用LISA空间类型划分法和空间计量回归模型,系统分析1990-2010年青藏高原内部城镇化格局的时空分异特征及影响因素。主要结论包括：① 青藏高原整体城镇化水平偏低,2017年底,青藏高原主体部分青海省和西藏自治区的常住人口城镇化水平分别为53.07%和30.8%,低于全国同期水平的58.52%,但青藏高原内不乏高水平城镇化地区,而且各地区间城镇化水平的空间差异缩小;② 青海西部柴达木盆地是高水平城镇化集聚区,羌塘地区是低水平城镇化集聚区,地级行政中心所在县市多呈现自身高、周边低的城镇化格局;③ 与内地相似,第二、三产业从业机会是推动青藏高原城镇化发展重要因素,社会公共服务资源对城镇化拉动作用开始凸显。研究结果可以为青藏高原人类活动研究和青藏高原就地就近城镇化可持续发展政策提供参考。     

青藏高原冬季植被变化与南亚夏季风关系分析

利用1982年1月-2001年12月青藏高原植被归一化指数(NDVI)和NCEP/NCAR再分析月平均资料,应用相关分析、奇异值分解(SVD)和经验正交分解(EOF)的方法,分析了青藏高原冬季的NDVI变化与南亚夏季风的关系.通过分析表明,高原植被与南亚地区850hPa纬向风场和纬向风垂直切变(U850hPa-U200hPa)有比较好的正相关关系.用纬向风垂直切变EOF分析的第一特征向量对应的时间系数定义一个南亚夏季风指数(EOFI),该系数与高原冬季NDVI相关较好,而且能较好地反映南亚夏季风的变化.     

Seasonal and Spatial Variability of Microparticles in Snowpits on the Tibetan Plateau, China

The work presents microparticle concentrations in snowpits from the East Rongbuk Glacier on Mt. Qomolangma (Everest) (ER) (28.02°N, 86.96°E, 6536 m a.s.l.), the Zhadang Glacier on Mt. Nyainqentanglha (NQ) (30.47°N, 90.65°E, 5800m a.s.l.), and the Guoqu Glacier on Mt. Geladaindong (GL) (33.95°N, 91.28°E, 5823m a.s.l.) over the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Variations of microparticle and major ions (e.g. Mg2+, Ca2+) concentrations in snowpits show that the values of the microparticles and ions in the non-monsoon seasons are much higher than those in the monsoon seasons. Annual flux of microparticle deposition at ER is lower than those at NQ and GL, which could be attributed to the long distance away from the possible dust source regions as well as the elevation for ER higher than the others. Compared with other remote areas, microparticle concentrations in the southern TP are much lower than those in the northern TP, but still much higher than those in Greenland and Antarctica. The seasonal and spatial microparticle variations are clearly related to the variations of atmospheric circulation according to the air mass 5-day backward trajectory analyses of HYSPLIT Model. Resultingly, the high microparticle values in snow are mainly attributed to the westerlies and the strong dust storm outbreaks on the TP, while the monsoon circulation brings great amount of precipitation from the Indian Ocean, thus reducing in the aerosol concentrations.     

多尺度视角下的青藏高原水资源短缺估算及空间格局

青藏高原水资源总量丰富,但由于水资源量与用水量在空间上分布不均衡,部分人口、城镇密集地区水资源短缺严重。本研究在多源数据的基础上,通过空间分析、降尺度处理等,建立了青藏高原省区、市域、县域空间尺度的水资源与用水量数据集。通过比较5、10、20、30年重现期多空间尺度的水资源短缺程度,分析水资源短缺在青藏高原的尺度效应,揭示青藏高原水资源短缺格局与特征,识别面临水资源短缺的人口与面积。结果表明,青藏高原在省区尺度无水资源短缺;在15个市域单元中,有3个市域出现水资源短缺;在115个县域单元中,有29个县域呈现出不同程度的水资源短缺,水资源短缺县域主要集中在青海省的河湟谷地、柴达木盆地与西藏自治区的一江两河流域等人口、城镇密集区域。总体而言,由于较大空间尺度地理单元内部各县域用水强度差异,在县域尺度面临水资源短缺的人口与面积大于市域与省区尺度面临水资源短缺的人口与面积。以县域为基本单元,发现青海省与西藏自治区30年重现期面临水资源短缺的人口占总人口的56.4%,出现水资源短缺的面积占总面积的10.4%。县域之间水资源短缺指数秩相关系数计算结果显示,省区内部各县域同时出现水资源短缺的可能性较大,而省区之间各县域同时出现水资源短缺的可能性相对随机。研究结果为制定青藏高原水资源短缺管理对策、促进区域城镇化与资源环境协调发展提供科学依据。     

Evaluation of ERA-interim monthly temperature data over the Tibetan Plateau

In this study, surface air temperature from 75 meteorological stations above 3000 m on the Tibetan Plateau are applied for evaluation of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF) third-generation reanalysis product ERA-Interim in the period of 1979-2010. High correlations ranging from 0.973 to 0.999 indicate that ERA-Interim could capture the annual cycle very well. However, an average root-meansquare error(rmse) of 3.7°C for all stations reveals that ERA-Interim could not be applied directly for the individual sites. The biases can be mainly attributed to the altitude differences between ERA-Interim grid points and stations. An elevation correction method based on monthly lapse rates is limited to reduce the bias for all stations. Generally, ERA-Interim captured the Plateau-Wide annual and seasonal climatologies very well. The spatial variance is highly related to the topographic features of the TP. The temperature increases significantly(10°C- 15°C) from the western to the eastern Tibetan Plateau for all seasons, in particular during winter and summer. A significant warming trend(0.49°C/decade) is found over the entire Tibetan Plateau using station time series from 1979-2010. ERA-Interim captures the annual warming trend with an increase rate of 0.33°C /decade very well. The observation data and ERA-Interim data both showed the largest warming trends in winter with values of 0.67°C/decade and 0.41°C/decade, respectively. We conclude that in general ERA-Interim captures the temperature trends very well and ERA-Interim is reliable for climate change investigation over the Tibetan Plateau under the premise of cautious interpretation.     

青藏高原城镇体系的时空演变

城镇体系的形成和发育对区域城镇化进程及社会经济发展起着至关重要的作用,并对生态环境产生重要影响。青藏高原特殊的地理环境与相对落后的社会经济基础,导致城镇体系不甚健全。目前国内外相关研究薄弱,不利于国家生态安全屏障建设及青藏高原可持续发展。为此,本文以建制镇以上的镇区和城市市区为研究对象,结合统计数据与遥感数据,借助GIS空间分析方法对青藏高原1990-2015年城镇体系的空间结构和规模结构进行时空演变格局分析,并采用重心移动模型揭示了青藏高原城镇人口规模和用地规模重心的迁移规律。结果表明：青藏高原城镇空间分布总体呈现出“东南密集、西北稀疏”、“大分散、小集聚”的格局;城镇分布在时间上具有阶段性增长特征且总体趋于集聚,在空间上不均衡程度呈上升趋势但2005年后明显减缓;虽然建制镇数量大幅增长,但96.88%的城镇规模在5万人以下,大中小城市发育不足;城镇人口规模重心呈现“先向西南,再向东北,又向西南”的移动轨迹;城镇用地规模重心呈现“先向东南,再向西北,再向东北”的迁移趋势。本文研究了青藏高原城镇体系的规模结构及其时空演变特征,为青藏高原新型城镇化及城镇空间格局优化提供基础依据;提出了资料缺乏和统计口径不一致的条件下城镇规模的合理估算方法,对我国城镇化相关研究具有一定的参考价值。     

Active tectonics and erosional unloading at the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau

Introduction The eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau, adjacent to the Sichuan Basin (Figure 1), has become a testing ground for a variety of models that contrast mechanisms of extrusion and crustal thickening associated with the India-Asia collision (Avouac and Tapponnier 1993, England and Houseman 1986),but that also address the extent to which the upper crust and upper mantle are coupled (Royden et al. 1997, Holt 2000). The margin is characterized by topographic relief of over 5 km an…     

Abrupt uplift of Tibetan Plateau at the end of early Pleistocene and Australasian impact event

The latest sharp uplift of the Tibetan Plateau and adjacent mountains occurred at the end of the early Pleistocene. The uplift of the Plateau resulted from Late Mesozoic-Cenozoic compressional structure due to the subduction of the Indian Plate beneath the Asian continent. This event definitively effected the formation of basin-mountain relief, Cenozoic basin deformation, large scale aridity and desertification of western China. The Australasian meteorites impact event happened ca. 0.8 Ma ago, located in the triangle area of the Indian Ocean ridge （20°S/67°E）. The impact may have resulted in an acceleration of speeding of the Indian Ocean ridge pushing the Indian Plate to subduct rapidly northward. Thus, the impact event can give reasonable explanation for the dynamic background of the latest rapid uplift of the Tibetan Plateau and the continental deformation of western China and even of the Middle Asia.     

Abrupt uplift of Tibetan Plateau a t the end of early Pleistocene and Australasian impact event

The latest sharp uplift of the Tibetan Plateau and adjacent mountains occurred at the end of the early Pleistocene. The uplift of the Plateau resulted from Late Mesozoic－Cenozoic comp ressional structure due to the subduction of the Indian Plate beneath the Asian continent. This event definitively effected the formation of basin-mountain relief, Cenozoic basin deformation, large scale aridity and desertification of western China. The Australasian meteorites impact event happened ca. 0.8 Ma ago, located in the triangle area of the Indian Ocean ridge (20°S/67°E) . The impact may have resulted in an acceleration of speeding of the Indian Ocean ridge pushing the Indian Plate to subduct rapidly northward. Thus, the impact event can give reasonable explanation for the dynamic background of the latest rapid uplift of the Tibetan Plateau and the continental deformation of western China and even of the Middle Asia.     

Response of Vegetation in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau to Global Warming

Using satellite-observed Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) dada and station-observed surface air temperature anomalies for the Northern Hemisphere (NH), we analyze the spatio-temporal characteristics of vege- tation variations in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and their correlations with global warming from 1982 to 2002. It is found that the late spring and early summer (May-June) are the months with the strongest responses of vegetation to global warming. Based on the Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function (REOF) method, the study shows that the first REOF spatial pattern of average NDVI for May-June reveals the northern and southern zones with great inter-annual variations of vegetation, the northern zone from the eastern Kunlun Mountains to the southwestern Qilian Mountain and southern zone from the northern edge of the Himalayas eastward to the Hengduan Mountains. The vegetation, especially grassland, in the two zones increases significantly with global warming, with a correlation coefficient of 0.71 between the first REOF of May-June vegetation and the April-May surface air temperature anomaly in the NH during 1982-2002. A long-term increasing trend in May-June vegetation for the plateau region as a whole is also attributed mainly to global warming although there are considerable regional differences. The areas with low NDVI (grassland and shrubland) usually respond more evidently to global warming, especially since the 1990s, than those with moderate or high NDVI values.     

ANALYSIS OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS OVER TIBETAN PLATEAU IN SUMMER

1INTRODUCTION In meteorological satellite cloud images, the features of Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) are shown in white bright cloud cluster, cloud band, cloud line, vorti- calcloudsystem,etc. The MCSlife cycle and spatial size usuallyvaryfrom several hours to one day and 100km to approximately 1000km, respectively. In the last two decades, it has been proven that storm and intensive con- vective weather, such as spasmodic thunderstorm and gale, tornado and short macro-precipitati…     

Comparison between reconstructions of global anthropogenic land cover change over past two millennia

Three global datasets, the History Database of the Global Environment (HYDE), Kaplan and Krumhardt (KK) and Pongratz of reconstructed anthropogenic land cover change (ALCC) were introduced and compared in this paper. The HYDE dataset was reconstructed by Goldewijk and his colleagues at the National Institute of Public Health and the Environment in Netherland, covering the past 12 000 years. The KK dataset was reconstructed by Kaplan and his colleagues, the Soil-Vegetation-Atmosphere Research Group at the Institute of Environmental Engineering in Switzerland, covering the past 8000 years. The Pongratz dataset was reconstructed by Pon-gratz and her colleagues at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Germany, covering AD 800-1992. The results show that the reconstructed datasets are quite different from each other due to the different methods used. The three datasets all allocated the historical ALCC according to human population density. The main reason causing the differences among the three datasets lies on the different relationships between population density and land use used in each reconstructed dataset. The KK dataset is better than the other two datasets for two important reasons. First, it used the nonlinear relationship between population density and land use, while the other two used the linear relationship. Second, Kaplan and his colleagues adopted the technological development and intensification parameters and considered the wood harvesting and the long-term fallow area resulted from shifting cultivation, which were neglected in the reconstructions of the other two datasets. Therefore, the KK dataset is more suitable as one of the anthropogenic forcing fields for climate simulation over the past two millennia that is recently concerned by two projects, the National Basic Research Program and the Strategic and Special Frontier Project of Science and Technology of the Chinese Academy of Sciences.     

基于卫星观测的两例青藏高原低涡结构的初步分析

应用风云2C卫星云图和配有云顶亮温的MTSAT卫星红外云图,描述了两例青藏高原低涡形成、发展及消亡过程,云图清晰显示了高原低涡具有涡眼和暖心结构的特征,并利用水汽图分析揭示了缺乏水汽供应是导致这类低涡不能进一步发展并移出高原的重要原因.最后用1°×1°NCEP分析资料对高原低涡形成眼结构时的基本物理场进行了诊断计算.结果表明:低涡整体为上升气流,而涡眼区在近地层为下沉气流,上层为相对涡区较弱的上升气流;低层辐合,高层辐散.进而印证了动力学研究工作得出的高原低涡具有与热带气旋类低涡(TCLV, tropical cyclone-like vortices)类似的涡眼和暖心结构特征的结论.     

Monitoring glacier and supra-glacier lakes from space in Mt. Qomolangma region of the Himalayas on the Tibetan Plateau in China

Because of the large number and remoteness, satellite data, including microwave data and optical imagery, have commonly been used in alpine glaciers surveys. Using remote sensing and Geographical Information System （GIS） techniques, the paper presents the results of a multitemporal satellite glacier extent mapping and glacier changes by glacier sizes in the Mt. Qomolangma region at the northern slopes of the middle Himalayas over the Tibetan Plateau. Glaciers in this region have both retreated and advanced in the past 35 years, with retreat dominating. The glacier retreat area was 3.23 km2 （or o.75 km^2 yr^-1 during 1974 and 1976, 8.68 km^2 （or 0.36 km^2 yr^-1 during 1976 and 1992, 1.44 km^2 （or 0.12 km^2 yr^-1） during 1992-2ooo. 1.14 km^2 （or 0.22 km^2 yr^-1 during 2000-2003, and 0.52 km^2 （or 0.07 km^2 yr^-1 during 2003-2008, respectively. While supra-glacier lakes on the debris-terminus of the Rongbuk Glacier were enlarged dramatically at the same time, from 0.05 km^2 in 1974 increased to 0.71 km^2 in 2008, which was more than 13 times larger in the last 35 years. In addition, glacier changes also showed spatial differences, for example, glacier retreat rate was the fastest at glacier termini between 5400 and 5700 m a.s.l than at other elevations. The result also shows that glaciers in the middle Himalayas retreat almost at a same pace with those in the western Himalayas.     

Climatic change and human activities of northeastern sahara in Holocene

Chronology establishment and dating data analyses on lacustrine deposits in northeastern Sahara show that vast fresh lakes existed over there between 9900–2400 a B. P. Especially, great continuous lakes developed and got their maximum extent during the period from 9800 a B. P. to 6450 a B. P. From 6000 a B. P. to 3600 a B. P., the evolution of the lakes experienced a new stage with a property of drastic fluctuations and a periodicity of 600 years, which was the response to the climatic environment changes. On the aspect of the relation between natural environment and the human, the warm-humid period in the Holocene was not only a very important time for human development and evolution, but also was a moment for human reproduction and division. On the other hand, this warm-humid period was also a distinguished time to natural environment changes, the accumulation of the strong weathered debris and fine materials formed the basements for the formation of the Sahara Desert. Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China, German Research Foundation and Gansu Provincial Natural Science Foundation.     

青藏高原湖泊面积动态监测

高原湖泊的动态变化对区域水循环具有重要影响。受全球气候变化的影响,青藏高原湖泊自20世纪90年代开始呈现剧烈扩张趋势。为揭示近年来青藏高原湖泊面积的时空变化规律,本文提出了一种改进的半自动湖泊提取算法,结合环境减灾卫星（HJ-1A/1B）和Landsat系列卫星影像数据,对青藏高原内流流域中面积大于50 km²的127个湖泊进行了连续6年的动态监测,并分析了该区域2009-2014年湖泊面积时空变化特征。研究结果表明,该区域湖泊整体呈现显著扩张趋势,年均变化速率为231.89 km²yr^-1（0.87 %yr^-1）,6年间湖泊面积扩张速率有所减缓。其中,扩张湖泊有104个,收缩湖泊有23个,变化速率分别为271.08 km²yr^-1（1.02 % yr^-1）和-39.19 km²yr^-1（-0.15 %yr^-1）。不同区域湖泊面积变化具有明显差异,主要表现为东部及北部大部分区域湖泊扩张,南部地区大部分湖泊面积稳定,萎缩湖泊主要分布于研究区四周。最后,本文通过分析冰川融水补给对湖泊面积变化的影响,发现存在冰川融水补给的湖泊面积变化率远大于不存在冰川融水补给的湖泊。由此可见,近年来冰川融水的增加是促进青藏高原内流流域湖泊扩张的主要因素之一。     

青藏高原旅游经济与生态环境协调效应测度及交互胁迫关系验证

青藏高原地区壮美的自然风光、神奇的人文景观和独特的民族文化,使其成为国内外旅游者倾心向往的世外桃源,亟需进一步探究其旅游经济与生态环境之间的交互耦合关系。本文创建青藏高原旅游经济与生态环境综合评价指标体系,采用青海省和西藏自治区15个地市州2000-2017年面板数据探究旅游经济与生态环境协调效应及交互胁迫关系。结果显示： ① 2000-2017年青藏高原仅有拉萨和西宁旅游经济指数呈现快速增长趋势,其余地市州均呈现缓慢增长趋势,生态环境指数整体较高,仅有西宁和海东呈现波动增长趋势,其余地市州变化平缓;② 青藏高原旅游经济与生态环境复合系统协调度时序上呈现波动增长趋势,空间上呈现南高北低、东高西低的分布格局;青海呈现以西宁为核心,逐层向外递减的核心-边缘空间格局;西藏呈现以拉萨为中心,南高北低的空间格局;③ 青藏高原复合系统协同效应子类型主要是旅游经济滞后型,西宁和拉萨呈现“旅游经济滞后-系统均衡发展-生态环境滞后”的变化趋势;④ 基于双指数模型证实了青藏高原旅游经济与生态环境之间具有交互胁迫关系。     

3种土壤冻融判别算法在青藏高原的分类精度评价

本文比较了基于AMSR-E被动微波数据的3种土壤冻融判别算法在青藏高原相关地区的分类精度。3种算法分别是：双指标算法、决策树算法、判别函数算法。本文选取了来自青藏高原那曲、玛曲、阿里3个地区土壤温湿度观测网的地表温度数据,并结合AMSR-E被动亮温数据,对上述算法在以上地区的分类精度分别进行了比较评价。结果表明：不论是白天还是夜间,相较于干旱区微波信号来自深层土壤的难以准确探测,在青藏高原半湿润半干旱区算法可取得相对较好的判别准确率;双指标算法相较于其他2种算法,在观测区具有较高的分类精度,且夜间分类精度高于白天;实测数据存在资料代表性不普遍即网格所包含站点信息量不够的问题,这也是后续工作中提高分类精度值得关注的着手点。