Identifying the effects of parameter uncertainty on the reliability of riverbank stability modelling

Bank retreat is a key process in fluvial dynamics affecting a wide range of physical, ecological and socioeconomic issues in the fluvial environment. To predict the undesirable effects of bank retreat and to inform effective measures to prevent it, a wide range of bank stability models have been presented in the literature. These models typically express bank stability by defining a factor of safety as the ratio of driving and resisting forces acting on the incipient failure block. These forces are affected by a range of controlling factors that include such aspects as the bank profile (bank height and angle), the geotechnical properties of the bank materials, as well as the hydrological status of the riverbanks. In this paper we evaluate the extent to which uncertainties in the parameterization of these controlling factors feed through to influence the reliability of the resulting bank stability estimate. This is achieved by employing a simple model of riverbank stability with respect to planar failure (which is the most common type of bank stability model) in a series of sensitivity tests and Monte Carlo analyses to identify, for each model parameter, the range of values that induce significant changes in the simulated factor of safety. These identified parameter value ranges are compared to empirically derived parameter uncertainties to determine whether they are likely to confound the reliability of the resulting bank stability calculations. Our results show that parameter uncertainties are typically high enough that the likelihood of generating unreliable predictions is typically very high (>  80% for predictions requiring a precision of < ± 15%). Because parameter uncertainties are derived primarily from the natural variability of the parameters, rather than measurement errors, much more careful attention should be paid to field sampling strategies, such that the parameter uncertainties and consequent prediction unreliabilities can be quantified more robustly.     

Examining the physical meaning of the bank erosion coefficient used in meander migration modeling

Widely used models of meander evolution relate migration rate to vertically averaged near-bank velocity through the use of a coefficient of bank erosion (E). In applications to floodplain management problems, E is typically determined through calibration to historical planform changes, and thus its physical meaning remains unclear. This study attempts to clarify the extent to which E depends on measurable physical characteristics of the channel boundary materials using data from the Sacramento River, California, USA. Bend-average values of E were calculated from measured long-term migration rates and computed near-bank velocities. In the field, unvegetated bank material resistance to fluvial shear (k) was measured for four cohesive and noncohesive bank types using a jet-test device. At a small set of bends for which both E and k were obtained, we discovered that variability in k explains much of the variability in E. The form of this relationship suggests that when modeling long-term meander migration of large rivers, E depends largely on bank material properties. This finding opens up the possibility that E may be estimated directly from field data, enabling prediction of meander migration rates for systems where historical data are unavailable or controlling conditions have changed. Another implication is that vegetation plays a limited role in affecting long-term meander migration rates of large rivers like the Sacramento River. These hypotheses require further testing with data sets from other large rivers.     

Insights on the kinematics of deep-seated gravitational slope deformations along the 1915 Avezzano earthquake fault (Central Italy), from time-series DInSAR

Small meandering channels of about 1 m wide on an intertidal mudflat in the Westerschelde estuary the Netherlands) were studied with the aim to improve understanding of the effect of highly cohesive bed and bank sediment on channel inception and meander geometry and dynamics. The study is supported by experiments and modelling. The estuarine meandering channels are less dynamical than alluvial meandering rivers, and the dynamics are more localised. Moreover, the high thresholds for bed sediment erosion and for bank failure lead to two processes, uncommon in larger rivers, that cause most of the morphological change. First, the beds of the channels are eroded by backward migrating steps under hydraulic jumps, while the remainder of the bed surface along the channel is hardly eroded. Second, channel banks erode i) where eroding steps locally cause undercutting of otherwise stable channel banks and ii) in very sharp bends where the flow separates from the inner-bend channel boundary and impinges directly on the bank on the opposite side of the channel. Further morphological change is probably induced by rainfall splash erosion and by storm waves that weaken the mud, and by large mud fluxes from the estuary. The steps were successfully reproduced in laboratory flume experiments. An existing model for step migration predicted celerities consistent with field and laboratory observations and demonstrated a strong dependence on the threshold for erosion. Bank stability models confirm that banks and steps only fail when undercut and weakened by waves, rain or excess pore pressure in agreement with observations. The effects of a high threshold for bank erosion was implemented in an existing meander simulation model that reproduced the observed locations of bank erosion somewhat better than without the threshold, but flow separation and its effect on meander bends remains poorly understood.     

Influence of large woody debris on morphological evolution of incised,sand-bed channels

This paper documents the influence of Large Woody Debris (LWD) on the morphological evolution of unstable, degrading, sand-bed rivers in the Yazoo Basin, North Mississippi, USA. The study was performed as part of the Demonstration Erosion Control (DEC) project. Twenty-three river reaches were studied, with the aim of determining whether the presence of LWD was beneficial or detrimental to the recovery of stability in degrading, sand-bed river systems and to provide the geomorphic understanding necessary to underpin enhanced LWD management strategies. The results demonstrate that locations of LWD inputs, volumes of LWD stored in different reaches and number of jams per unit channel length are causally related to the morphological processes occurring during different stages of adjustment in these unstable, incised fluvial systems and may be explained using a Channel Evolution Model (CEM). The net impact of LWD jams on reach-scale sediment budgets was found, in general, to be positive: that is, jams trap more sediment than they mobilise. This suggests that LWD probably accelerates rather than retards recovery of a stable longitudinal profile and channel configuration following incision. Field typing of LWD jams, based on their impacts on the flow pattern, reveals that jam type is a function of the size of large, key elements in the jam in relation to the channel width. A Debris Jam Classification Scheme is proposed on this basis, with the spatial relationship between jam type and drainage basin area expressed using a dimensionless function of the ratio between channel width and average riparian tree height. The scheme features four jam types, Underflow, Dam, Deflector and Flow Parallel/Bar Head, each of which has a different morphological impact on local channel geometry. These jam types may be used to classify LWD jams as an aid in determining appropriate management strategies, according to their location within the drainage basin.     

Sediment budget analysis of slope–channel coupling and in-channel sediment storage in an upland catchment, southeastern Australia

Slope–channel coupling and in-channel sediment storage can be important factors that influence sediment delivery through catchments. Sediment budgets offer an appropriate means to assess the role of these factors by quantifying the various components in the catchment sediment transfer system. In this study a fine (< 63 µm) sediment budget was developed for a 1.64-km² gullied upland catchment in southeastern Australia. A process-based approach was adopted that involved detailed monitoring of hillslope and bank erosion, channel change, and suspended sediment output in conjunction with USLE-based hillslope erosion estimation and sediment source tracing using ¹³⁷Cs and ²¹⁰Pb_ex. The sediment budget developed from these datasets indicated channel banks accounted for an estimated 80% of total sediment inputs. Valley floor and in-channel sediment storage accounted for 53% of inputs, with the remaining 47% being discharged from the catchment outlet. Estimated hillslope sediment input to channels was low (5.7 t) for the study period compared to channel bank input (41.6 t). However an estimated 56% of eroded hillslope sediment reached channels, suggesting a greater level of coupling between the two subsystems than was apparent from comparison of sediment source inputs. Evidently the interpretation of variability in catchment sediment yield is largely dependent on the dynamics of sediment supply and storage in channels in response to patterns of rainfall and discharge. This was reflected in the sediment delivery ratios (SDR) for individual measurement intervals, which ranged from 1 to 153%. Bank sediment supply during low rainfall periods was reduced but ongoing from subaerial processes delivering sediment to channels, resulting in net accumulation on the channel bed with insufficient flow to transport this material to the catchment outlet. Following the higher flow period in spring of the first year of monitoring, the sediment supplied to channels during this interval was removed as well as an estimated 72% of the sediment accumulated on the channel bed since the start of the study period. Given the seasonal and drought-dependent variability in storage and delivery, the period of monitoring may have an important influence on the overall SDR. On the basis of these findings, this study highlights the potential importance of sediment dynamics in channels for determining contemporary sediment yields from small gullied upland catchments in southeastern Australia.     

The Asian Development Bank and the production of poverty: Neoliberalism,technocratic modernization and land dispossession in the Greater Mekong Subregion

In 1992 the Asian Development Bank coordinated a meeting between government representatives from China, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam to discuss regional economic integration. From that meeting the Greater Mekong Subregion was formed to promote peace and prosperity within the Mekong countries. Yet, despite more than more than USD 14 billion being spent on facilitating trade, development and infrastructural ties between these nations, poverty remains widespread. This article provides a critical analysis of the Asian Development Bank and its approach to development and poverty alleviation within the Greater Mekong Subregion. It suggests that the institution's technocratic neoliberal development ideology provides a discursive legitimation to processes of displacement and dispossession that has seen the production of new forms of poverty. To make this argument, the article draws on an ethnographic study of the local‐scale implications of forced resettlement at the Luang Prabang Airport. It conducts an analysis of how the Asian Development Bank defines and measures poverty, and critiques the institution's resettlement guidelines for the airport project.     

Cartographic Constructs: A Case Study of Nantucket Island Oral Histories

The widespread adoption of neoliberal reforms during the past quarter century has had profound implications for the livelihoods of those who live and work in cities throughout Latin America. This case study of Mérida, Mexico, builds directly on recent research about the changing nature of work and the role of informality as a livelihood strategy in Latin America and attempts to explain how place-specific patterns of informal work emerge from neoliberal reforms and concomitant urban economic restructuring. Drawing on field research and a large household survey, this article reveals that general patterns of informality coincide with previous findings from Latin America: high levels of informal work; increased heterogeneity of informality; and significant mobility, with a large share of workers “opting out” of the formal sector voluntarily. However, compared with previous research in Mexico, this study shows that informal work is significantly more pervasive, particularly among women; less likely to be voluntary; and pays considerably less. In light of gender considerations and significant discrepancies between local patterns of informality and national trends, this case study casts doubt on recent World Bank encyclicals affirming the resemblance between self-employment in Mexico and microentrepreneurship in more developed countries. Moreover, the article concludes that World Bank literature conveniently overlooks the gendered nature of informal work in Latin America and the profound divergence between the express purposes of neoliberalism and its actual implications. As a result, World Bank research on informality serves to justify the neoliberal model, rather than improve the livelihoods of those who live and work in cities throughout Latin America.     

Bank and near-bank processes in an incised channel

Gravitational forces acting on in situ bank material act in concert with hydraulic forces at the bank toe to determine rates of bank erosion. The interaction of these forces control streambank mechanics. Hydraulic forces exerted by flowing water on in situ bank-toe material and failed cohesive material at the bank toe are often sufficient to entrain materials at relatively frequent flows and to maintain steep lower-bank profiles. Seepage forces exerted on in situ bank material by groundwater, downward infiltration of rainwater and lateral seepage of streamflow into and out of the bank are critical in determining bank strength. Data from a study site on Goodwin Creek, MS, USA clearly show the temporal variability of seepage forces and the lag time inherent in reductions in shear strength due to losses of matric suction and generation of positive pore-water pressures. Negative pore-water pressures (matric suction) have also been shown to increase the resistance of failed cohesive blocks to entrainment by fluid shear. A stable bank can be transformed into an unstable bank during periods of prolonged rainfall through:

1. increase in soil bulk unit (specific) weight,

2. decrease or complete loss of matric suction, and, therefore, apparent cohesion,

3. generation of positive pore-water pressures, and, therefore, reduction or loss of frictional strength,

4. entrainment of in situ and failed material at the bank toe, and

5. loss of confining pressure during recession of stormflow hydrographs.

Relatively small frequent flows during the winter have the ability to erode failed bank materials, maintain oversteepened, unstable bank surfaces and promote prolonged periods of bank retreat, channel migration and high yields of fine-grained sediment. Confining pressures provided by stormflow are not as significant in maintaining bank stability as the counteracting force of fluid shear on the bank toe, which steepens the bank. For example, more than 2 m of bank retreat occurred during the study period at the research site on Goodwin Creek, northern Mississippi. The loss of matric suction (negative pore pressures) due to infiltrating precipitation has been found to be as significant as the development of excess pore pressures in contributing to mass bank instability. Apparent cohesion, friction angle, soil bulk unit weight and moisture content were measured in situ. Matric suction was measured continuously, in situ with a series of five pressure-transducer tensiometers. A bank-failure algorithm, which combines the Mohr–Coulomb approach, for saturated conditions and the Fredlund modification for unsaturated conditions was developed for layered cohesive streambanks. The resulting equation has been used successfully to investigate the role of matric suction, positive pore-water pressures and confining pressure for layered streambanks composed of cohesive materials.     

Sampling Size Requirements to Delineate Spatial Variability of Soil Properties for Site-Specific Nutrient Management in Rubber Tree Plantations

Site-specific nutrient management is an important strategy to promote sustainable production of rubber trees in order to obtain high yields of natural rubber. Making effective nutrient management decisions for rubber trees depend on knowing the spatial variations of soil fertility properties in advance. In this study the Kriging geostatistical method was used to examine the spatial variability of soil total nitrogen (TN), organic matter (OM), available phosphorus (AP) and available potassium (AK) in a typical hilly rubber tree plantation in Hainan, China. The spatial variability of the soils was small for the TN and OM and had medium variability for the AP and AK variables. Anisotropic semivariograms of all soil properties revealed that elevation and building contour ledge can profoundly affect the spatial variability of soil properties in the plantation, except for the AK variable. Soil samples had to be collected in alignment with the direction of elevation and perpendicular to the direction of building contour ledges, which was needed to obtain more reliable information within the study area in the rubber tree plantation. In formulating a sample scheme for AK, the distribution features of the soil’s parent material should be considered as the influence factor in the study field. The Kriging method used to guide the soil sampling for spatial variability dertermination of soil properties was about 2-5 times more efficient than the classic statistical method.     

SWAT模型在漳卫河流域应用研究

漳卫河流域是海河流域重要组成水系, 也是我国北方地区水资源短缺和水环境恶化的典 型区域之一。本文基于SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool)构建漳卫河流域分布式水文模型, 对模型的几个重要参数进行敏感性分析, 总结出其取值变化对模拟结果的影响规律。并应用 2000~2004 年的水文气象数据, 进行分布式水文过程模拟, 将模拟结果与8 个行政区划的水资源 公报数据进行对比分析。结果显示模拟相对误差在10%以内, 能够为水资源管理提供重要参考。 研究成果对于SWAT 模型在国内的应用和推广, 具有很好的示范性。也为海河全流域分布式水文 模型的研制奠定了基础。     

商业银行空间市场力的演进规律——中国光大银行拓扑结构的分析

构建商业银行空间市场力模型测度商业银行空间市场力,并应用于光大银行并绘制其拓扑结构图,分时段显示其拓扑结构的演进路径,度分布检测说明光大银行拓扑结构具有泊松分布特征。基于光大银行截止2009年在全国31 省市自治区(不含台湾、香港数据)尚有8 个行政区尚未布局营业网点的状态下,按照有效拓扑路径模拟设置行政区网点,得到其设置的先后顺序,并与以后该银行真实情况对照并取得了大致一致,这说明该银行在后期对营业网点设置中遵循了拓扑结构的优化过程。     

Effectiveness of grade-control structures in reducing erosion along incised river channels: the case of Hotophia Creek, Mississippi

Herein, we undertake a geomorphological analysis in which spatial and temporal trends of bed and bank erosion along an 18-km length of Hotophia Creek, Mississippi, are estimated for the period between 1961 and 2050. The evaluation was undertaken for two scenarios of channel response to channelization during 1961–1963. One scenario represents the ‘actual’ response of the channel and includes the effects of installing a series of grade-control structures (GCS) between 1980 and 1996, while the other represents a hypothetical scenario in which the channel is left to adjust naturally. This allows the effectiveness of GCS in reducing in-channel erosion to be assessed. The analysis relies on the availability of channel survey data to develop empirical bed and bank response models for each adjustment scenario, supplemented by bank stability modelling to predict future rates of bank erosion. Results indicate that channel erosion rates decline nonlinearly with respect to time since 1961, for both adjustment scenarios. However, by the year 2050, the “with” GCS adjustment scenario results in the cumulative removal of some 663,000 (9%) extra tonnes of sediment relative to the “without” GCS scenario. Most (63%) of this excess is derived from enhanced bed erosion during 1976–1985 and 1985–1992, with the remainder derived from increased bank erosion during 1985–1992. Detailed analysis of the patterns of erosion and deposition, and their association with the GCS, provides evidence to support the view that GCS installed along Hotophia Creek have, for the most part, been ineffective in reducing channel erosion rates. This is because the GCS were installed too late to prevent bed degradation, caused by the 1961–1963 channelization, migrating upstream. In addition, some structures have disrupted the downstream transmission of bed material from eroded reaches upstream, exacerbating bed degradation and bank erosion in incised reaches downstream.     

The braided Milk River, northern Montana, fails the Leopold–Wolman discharge-gradient test

The Milk River, the northernmost tributary to the Missouri–Mississippi River system, exhibits an anomalous sand-bed braiding reach in an otherwise meandering system. Shortly after leaving Alberta and entering Montana the river suddenly changes to braiding and maintains this pattern for 47 km before entering Fresno Reservoir. Measured stream gradient and bankfull discharge in the braiding reach severely fail the Leopold and Wolman [U.S. Geol. Surv. Prof. Pap. 282B (1957) 39] slope–discharge test for differentiating channel patterns. While channel slope has long been regarded as one of the primary variables associated with braiding, our data from the sand-bed Milk River do not support this relationship. Instead, the data show that the braiding reach has a lower channel slope (0.00047) than the meandering reach (0.00055). Coupled with a constant discharge the unit length stream power is comparable between the two reaches. At the morphologic transition between meandering and braiding, a dramatic reduction in channel bank strength occurs where the sampled silt–clay content declines from 65% in the meandering reach to 18% in the braiding. This enables channel widening which is reflected in a 60% reduction in unit area stream power in the braiding reach. Thus, sediment transport capacity declines and channel bars are deposited. During waning flows, these bars are dissected, producing a braiding morphology. We suggest that for sand-bed braiding rivers the silt–clay percentage in the channel banks may be more important than slope. A review of the original Leopold and Wolman [U.S. Geol. Surv. Prof. Pap. 282B (1957) 39] dataset, and many subsequent analyses, reveals that most braided rivers studied were gravel-bed. As a result, causal variables associated with braiding in sand-bed environments may need a thorough evaluation.     

“水资源域”概念在美国五大湖的应用(英文)

"水资源域"为在某一时段向河口或某一地点,传送水、水中营养物、泥沙或其它物质的空间范围。这一新概念与"流域"概念既相似又不同:1)流域边界以地貌特征来确定,相对稳定。而水资源域的边界以水文事件中的水和物质传播范围来确定,随时空而变化;2)流域强调给定空间范围内水和物质的时间分布,而水资源域强调水和物质随时间和空间二者相互变化的动态分布;3)水资源域综合考虑了不同尺度的时空即时变化对水资源及物质传播的影响。这一新概念应用遥感、空间分析、追踪及模拟技术分析流域空间模式与过程,为水资源探索、分析、模拟及预测提供了一种全新的方法与途径。该文以美国伊利湖茅密河为例,应用分布式大流域模型计算了水资源域的分布。     

The Asturian Basin within the North Iberian margin (Bay of Biscay): seismic characterisation of its geometry and its Mesozoic and Cenozoic cover

The distribution and structure of the Mesozoic and Cenozoic cover within the central part of the North Iberian Margin (Bay of Biscay) is analysed based on a dense set of 2D seismic reflection lines and logs. The integration of well data allows the recognition of seven seismostratigraphic units and the construction of a surface that illustrates the 3D morphology of this area at the time of the Jurassic rifting. The study zone comprises what is known as Le Danois Bank, a basement high, and the Asturian Basin, one of the sedimentary basins originated during the Iberian rifting at the end of the Paleozoic. Its development continued with the oceanisation of the Bay of Biscay as a failed arm of the Atlantic rift; later, during the Cenozoic, a drastic change in tectonic regime induced the partial closure of Biscay and building up the Cantabrian?Pyrenean chain along the northern border of Iberia. This compressional period left its imprint in the Asturian Basin sediments in the form of a mild inversion and general uplift. The geometry of the basin bottom appears as an asymmetric bowl thinning out towards the edges, with a main E‐W depocenter, separated by E‐W striking faults from a secondary one. Those bounding faults show twisted trends in the north, interpreted as a consequence of the compressional period, when a transfer zone in a N‐S direction formed between the two E‐W striking deformation fronts in Biscay. This study shows that the transfer zone extends further to the west, reaching the longitude of Le Danois Bank. The maximum thickness of the filling within the Asturian Basin is estimated in more than 10 km, deeper than assessed in previous studies. The recognition of frequent halokynetic structures at this longitude is another observation worth to remark. Based on this study, it is suggested that the basin formed on top of a distal basement block of stretched crust limiting with the hyperextended rifted domain of Biscay. This location largely conditioned its deformation during the late compression.     

黄河北岸兰州段丘陵区土壤生态化学计量与空间变异北大核心CSCD

为探究黄河北岸兰州段丘陵区土壤碳、氮、磷含量及化学计量比的空间变异特征,基于12个样地数据,采集1 m剖面内不同发生层土壤进行土壤含水率(SWC)、pH、有机碳(SOC)、全氮(STN)和全磷(STP)的测定。分析了研究区土壤碳、氮、磷含量及其生态化学计量特征在植被和土层上的差异及空间变异特征。结果表明:(1)研究区SOC、STN、STP均值分别为4.53、0.74、0.13 g·kg^(-1),C∶N、C∶P、N∶P均值分别为7.85、55.17、8.40;(2)研究区SOC、STN、C∶N和N∶P的块基比C_(0)/(C_(0)+C)<0.25,主要受气候、植被、地形等自然因素影响;STP、C∶P则C/(C+C)>0.75,主要受退耕还草等人为因素影响;(3)研究区土壤整体受到氮限制,与此同时有机碳更为匮乏,磷则在短期内不会成为限制因子。在黄河流域兰州段北岸丘陵区北岸的生态治理与恢复中,应重视有机肥和氮肥的配置与施加,同时需减少人为干扰,这对于植被的快速恢复与养分的固定具有重要意义。     

Allogenic and autogenic influences upon riparian vegetation dynamics

Riparian vegetation dynamics are regarded as being driven by allogenic hydrogeomorphological factors, with autogenic (plant-induced) influences becoming more important as landform stability is achieved. Autogenic processes, however, may have a substantial influence on both plant dynamics and the river environment from the earliest stages of plant establishment. Various aspects of both allogenic and autogenic processes in riparian vegetation dynamics are discussed here; in particular how plants may promote bank stability and sedimentation, and river island development. Riparian restoration often fails to incorporate autogenic processes, thereby restricting the re-establishment of natural functioning, and further interdisciplinary work is needed to address this.     

Emerging trends in urbanizing Palestine: neglected city-builders beyond the occupation

In this article, we draw attention to trends in land transformation in the West Bank since the Second Intifada, after which a surge of investment from Gulf countries entered Palestine, almost exclusively in the West Bank. The occupied Palestinian territories have attracted a great deal of attention from media and academics, yet the vast majority of scholarship focuses on the conflict and the variety of social, economic, and political repercussions of the on-going Israeli occupation. While the occupation has undeniably serious impacts on every aspect of life for Palestinians, the near-exclusive focus on the conflict means that significant new trends, such as urban mega-developments and emerging market-based urbanisation processes, have been largely overlooked. We outline three directions for future research: the assemblage of “neglected city-builders” shaping current urbanization processes in Palestine; the ideas, policies, and norms circulating in the West Bank; and the social, spatial, economic, and other impacts of these new urban developments.     

SOCIAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF WORLD BANK/IMF-FUNDED ECONOMIC RESTRUCTURING IN BOLIVIA: AN ANALYSIS OF ENRON AND SHELL'S HYDROCARBONS PROJECTS

With the spectacular financial collapse of Enron in 2001, Enron and Shell's Rio San Miguel‐Cuiabá gas pipeline gained international notoriety for degrading the last, most intact dry tropical forest in the world, Bolivia's Chiquitano forest. The paper uses specific case studies, including the case of the Cuiabá pipeline, to examine how economic restructuring sponsored by the World Bank, International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Inter‐American Development Bank (IDB) facilitated the entrance of multinational oil corporations that have caused significant social and environmental impacts in Bolivia. The paper explores the influence of international financial institutions and multinational oil corporations on Bolivian state institutions, particularly their ability to regulate and address impacts caused by developments in the hydrocarbons sector. It concludes that neoliberal policies, which resulted in partial privatisation of the state oil company and in expanded control over natural resources by multinational corporations (MNCs), were detrimental to sensitive ecosystems and indigenous inhabitants.     

Mechanisms of late Quaternary fault throw‐rate variability along the north central Gulf of Mexico coast: implications for coastal subsidence

Quaternary sea‐level cycles have caused dramatic depocentre shifts near the mouths of major rivers. The effects of these shifts on fault activity in passive margin settings is poorly known, as no studies have constrained passive margin fault throw‐rate variability over 10³ to 10⁵ year time scales. Here we present 11 mean throw rates for the Tepetate–Baton Rouge fault zone along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast in southern Louisiana. These data were obtained by optically stimulated luminescence dating over time scales spanning the last interglacial to the late Holocene. The mean throw rate is ca. 0.22 mm year^?1 during the late Holocene, ca. 0.03 mm year^?1 during the last glacial and at least 0.07 mm year^?1 during the last interglacial. Throw rates averaged over the late Pleistocene to present are spatially uniform within our study area. The temporal variability in throw rates suggests that shifts of the Mississippi River depocentre relative to this fault zone, driven by Quaternary sea‐level cycles, may have imposed a significant control on fault activity. The late Holocene throw rate is at least in the order of magnitude smaller than the rates of land‐surface subsidence in the Mississippi Delta, indicating that this fault zone is not a dominant contributor to subsidence in this region.