2014年11月上旬西北太平洋一次极端强度爆发气旋的数值模拟和分片位涡反演分析

基于NCEP 6 h一次,0.5°（纬度）×0.5°（经度）水平分辨率的GFS（Global Forecasting System）再分析数据,利用数值模式WRF（Weather Research and Forecasting）,对2014年11月上旬西北太平洋一次极端强度的爆发气旋事件进行了模拟。在成功复制爆发气旋主要特征的基础上,较详细的分析了本次爆发气旋快速发展的有利环境条件,并利用分片位涡反演的方法,对此次爆发气旋的快速发展过程进行了研究,主要结论如下:（1）本次爆发气旋的爆发性发展阶段维持了约27 h,其最大加深率约为3.98 Bergeron（气旋加深率单位）,最低中心气压约为919.2 hPa。（2）爆发气旋的快速发展与对流层高层高空急流对热量的输送,对流层中层西风带短波槽槽前暖平流和正涡度平流的有利准地转强迫,以及对流层低层暖锋伴随的暖平流过程密切相关。（3）分片位涡反演的结果表明,对流层顶皱褶对应的平流层大值位涡下传和降水凝结潜热过程造成的正位涡异常是本次爆发气旋快速发展的主导因子,而对流层低层的斜压过程贡献相对较小。在气旋爆发期的前期和强盛期,降水凝结潜热释放是爆发气旋发展的最重要因子,而在爆发期后期,随着降水的减弱和爆发气旋的东北向移动,对流层顶皱褶作用所造成的正位涡异常成为维持气旋快速发展的最有利因子。     

气旋快速发展过程中潜热释放重要性的位涡反演诊断

本文分析了一次爆发性气旋过程中的位涡演变特征,揭示了凝结潜热释放对气旋人上工位涡柱形成所起的作用;通过数值求解位涡反演诊断方程定量诊断出气旋爆发性发展阶段,凝结潜热释放对低层降压和气旋式环流增强的重要影响。     

爆发性气旋的锋生位涡反演诊断

本文采用基于埃特尔位涡反演诊断和锋生函数诊断的锋生位涡反演诊断方法,对一次发生在西太平洋地区的爆发性气旋过程进行了诊断分析和机制研究。本文主要从锋生演变的角度,定量诊断了与对流层顶折迭现象相联系的高层位涡扰动,由凝结潜热释放造成的中层位涡扰动,与低层锋区扰动相联系的低层位涡扰动以及以低层水平辐合辐散为主要成份的非平衡风场在气旋发生发展的不同阶段所起的作用和影响,并对以上各物理过程相互作用,造成气旋爆发性发展的机制进行了分析讨论。     

气旋波动研究进程及研究方法

较全面地回顾与阐述了气旋波动研究进程及研究方法, 其中包括Bjerknes气旋模式, 以及Bjerknes and Solherg (1922) 提出的温带气旋生命循环和Petterssen (1956) 对气旋温度结构的描述, 并指出凝结潜热及地形对气旋发展的作用。还较详细地介绍了Petterssen (1956) 气旋发展理论、倾斜涡度发展理论、来自准地转 方程及位涡思考的气旋生成理论, 以及高空超长波系统发展与高空急流加强有利于低层爆发性气旋发展的学术观点, 为气旋的研究提供了历史研究背景、研究思想及方法。     

一次爆发性气旋的发展与湿位涡关系的研究

通过对一次陆地爆发性气旋的数值模拟与湿位涡的诊断分析发现，气旋的爆发与湿位涡的平流关系密切，气旋的发展并不是在湿位涡中心位于气旋上空时才开始，而是当湿位涡中心位于气旋的后部，并在200hPa对下有明显的倒圆锥形下伸区时，才有利于气旋的发展。当湿位涡中心位于气旋上空时，气旋发展开始减慢。湿位涡局地变化的大小与水平方向位涡梯度的大小有关。湿斜压位涡负值区的上下贯通与气旋发展也有明显的关系。     

一次引发暴雨的东北低涡的涡度和水汽收支分析

对2005年7月25～29日引发较大范围持续性暴雨的东北低涡的结构、涡度和水汽收支进行了分析研究,结果表明:1)东北低涡是一个较深厚的冷性涡旋.初期,气旋性涡度出现在对流层中层,然后向中低层及高层伸展.而低涡加强阶段,气旋性涡度在对流层高层增加得最快,并逐渐向中低层传播,诱发地面气旋的发展;由于高低空锋生的相互作用,在低涡南部形成了深厚的近乎垂直的低层略前倾的"弓形"锋区.2)对涡度收支的计算表明,水平涡度平流项和水平辐散项对低涡的发展、加强起到最主要的作用.但在不同阶段,这两项的作用和大小各不相同.3) 对流层高层位涡大值区在低涡东部向下传播,有利于低涡的发展加强,与低涡暴雨的落区位置较为接近.此外对卫星云顶亮度温度(TBB)的分析,发现低涡暴雨典型的涡旋云带中对流活动旺盛的地区与局地暴雨的位置对应.4) 低涡暴雨的水汽初期主要来自北部,随着低纬地区西南季风的增强,沿副高西侧从低纬到中高纬建立起一条较强的水汽输送带,东北地区水汽收支以南北向的辐合为主.5)将2005年和1998年夏季6～8月的东北低涡暴雨个例的天气形势配置进行逐月比较,发现持续的较大范围的低涡暴雨过程与亚洲中高纬的阻塞形势、低涡的维持、西太平洋副热带高压的位置及夏季风和低纬系统的水汽输送有密切的关系.     

引发北方沙尘暴天气快速发展气旋的数值模拟研究

使用非静力中尺度模式,对2000年4月5～7日引发北方沙尘暴大风天气的蒙古气旋快速发生发展过程做了48 h的预报试验,发现含全物理过程时,该模式基本可再现出大尺度背景场演变和蒙古气旋快速发展的过程;气旋发展前期冷暖空气相当活跃,有很强的斜压性,锋生函数辐散项对气旋的发展作用最大;对流层高层的位涡大值区在向下向东传递过程中,中低层出现气旋快速发展,气旋达最强盛时,对流层中形成一个上下贯通的垂直涡柱;对流层顶"下陷",高层位涡大值区(即高空冷涡低槽的发展)与低层锋区出现相互作用,这可能是导致斜压扰动发展及气旋初始生成的重要机制;潜热释放在本次气旋发生发展过程中作用不显著.这与梅雨锋上低压(扰动)等系统的情况有很大差别.     

高低空位涡扰动、非绝热加热与气旋的发生发展

从湿位涡的扰动量出发，来分析气旋发展过程中高低空位涡的变化，结果表明：低层位涡扰动先于气旋并孤立于高层位涡扰动而存在，在气旋发生过程中，低层正值位涡扰动发展上伸，与高层下传的位涡相接，形成一条正值位涡扰动柱，而湿位涡扰动柱的形成正是气旋发生的重要标志。江南暴雨期的非绝热加热主要由降水产生的凝结潜热造成，最大加热层的出现，是低层位涡扰动产生和向上发展的一个重要原因，对气旋的发展起着促进作用。     

“7.20”华北特大暴雨过程中低涡发展演变机制研究

利用中国地面加密自动站观测资料、北京地区雷达探测资料、NCEP （1°×1°） FNL资料、ECMWF ERA Interim （0.125°×0.125°）逐日再分析资料等,对造成2016年7月19-20日华北极端暴雨中的低涡系统发展演变的结构特征和加强机制进行了研究。华北地区这次特大暴雨过程出现了3个阶段降水,其中与低涡系统强烈发展对应的第2阶段降水是本次华北暴雨过程的主要降水阶段。针对该低涡的分析表明：（1）850 hPa以西南低涡为中心的低压带中,在河南西北部新生低涡系统,并且其在向华北地区移动过程中显著加强,该低涡系统在空间结构上,从倾斜涡柱逐渐发展成近乎直立的、贯穿整个对流层的深厚低涡系统;（2）中低层低涡系统快速发展过程与高低空系统构成耦合作用有关：低层低涡系统显著加强之前,对流层上层（300-200 hPa）首先出现高空槽异常加深并向南发展,该高空槽发展的开始阶段与其本身冷暖平流造成的斜压发展过程对应;而后,随着高纬度平流层高位涡沿等熵面向南运动,造成华北地区对流层上层涡度增强,形成正位涡异常区;当这一正位涡异常区叠加在对流层中低层锋区上空时,造成对流层中低层气旋快速发展并向下伸展,诱发河南西北部的新生气旋;低涡系统的发展进一步强化了低空暖平流,促使低空气旋向东北方向发展"移动"（本质上是暖平流前端造成的气旋发展）,这一动力学过程反过来使高层的涡度增强;这一正反馈过程形成的耦合环流不仅造成了整个涡度柱强度增强,而且垂直结构上逐渐由倾斜涡柱演变为近乎于直立的涡柱;（3）随着低涡系统增强,极大地加强了垂直上升运动并触发了对流,形成大范围的强降水,大量的凝结潜热释放,造成了低层低涡系统在强降水开始阶段的快速发展和增强;20日00时（世界时）以后,虽然对流活动显著减弱,但低涡系统的加深维持了大范围强降水过程的持续。强降水与低涡发展的正反馈过程是这次华北暴雨得以长时间维持的重要机制之一,这一过程形成的持续性潜热释放也是对流层中上层低涡系统热力结构发生改变的重要原因。     

2003年夏季梅雨期一次强气旋发展的位涡诊断分析

通过位涡诊断和回推轨迹分析, 对2003年夏季梅雨期间一次强江淮气旋的发展过程进行了研究。结果表明: 气旋发展初期, 非绝热加热在气旋的低层发展中起了主要作用, 随后由于高层水平平流的增强, 通过垂直平流使高低层大值位涡耦合在一起, 从而使气旋迅速发展。从中、 高、 低层对位涡柱形成所起的作用来看, 低层主要是非绝热加热, 中层是垂直平流, 而高层主要是水平平流; 从构成气旋的气流来说, 在气旋迅速发展阶段, 低层主要以西南暖湿气流为主, 高层 (500 hPa以上) 主要以沿急流轴下降的高层干冷气流和对流层底层流向气旋东北部并迅速上升的暖湿气流为主。高低层冷暖空气的相互作用主要发生在600 hPa及以上层次, 因凝结加热引起的垂直运动通过垂直平流可能在冷暖气流相互作用和上下大位涡的垂直耦合中发挥了重要作用。     

Diagnostics of Cyclogenesis Over the Aegean Sea Using Potential Vorticity Inversion

Summary  In this study an attempt is made to investigate comprehensively the dynamics of a case of cyclogenesis over the Aegean Sea within the context of the potential vorticity. At early stages the cyclogenesis is manifested by a large scale development at the upper levels over Adriatic Sea and Yugoslavia associated with an upper tropospheric potential vorticity anomaly. At later stages a smaller scale development was generated over Aegean Sea associated with a low-level potential vorticity anomaly and a surface warm anomaly. By means of a two-dimensional potential vorticity inversion it is demonstrated that the scale, the position and the strength of the involved anomalies contribute to the surface development, however, the low-level potential vorticity anomaly seems to constitute the most significant feature, more likely to be associated with condensation. Received March 2, 1999/Revised September 30, 1999     

用Zwack-Okossi方程对一次爆发性气旋的诊断分析

利用ＥＣＭＷＦ资料作初始场,ＭＭ４模式输出的结果和Ｚｗ ａｃｋ－ Ｏｋｏｓｓｉ方程作诊断工具,对１９８１年１２月２０～２１日生成在西北太平洋的一次爆发性气旋进行了数值试验和诊断分析。得到：气旋的爆发性发展主要是由正涡度平流和非地转场激发,其中涡度平流对气旋发展贡献最大,温度平流的影响则较小,两者主要是在对流层高层起作用,而非地转场则在对流层低层起主要作用。由水汽造成的非绝热加热对本次爆发性气旋的生成影响不大,积云对流潜热的反馈作用更小。另外次天气尺度系统对爆发性气旋形成贡献较小     

Impact of tropical cyclone development on the instability of South Asian High and the summer monsoon onset over Bay of Bengal

This paper analyzes the evolution of the South Asian High (SAH) during and after the development of tropical cyclone Neoguri over the South China Sea (SCS) in mid-April 2008, the formation of tropical storm Nargis over the Bay of Bengal (BOB) in late April, and the Asian summer monsoon onset, as well as their interrelationships. Numerical sensitivity experiments are conducted to explore the underlying mechanism responsible for these seasonal transitions in 2008. It is demonstrated that strong latent heating related with tropical cyclone activities over the SCS can enhance the development of the SAH aloft and generate zonal asymmetric potential vorticity (PV) forcing, with positive vorticity advection to its east and negative advection to its west. Following the decay of the tropical cyclone, this asymmetric forcing leads to instability development of the SAH, presenting as a slowly westward-propagating Rossby wave accompanied by a westward shift of the high PV advection. A strong upper tropospheric divergence on the southwest of the SAH also shifts westward, while positive PV eddies are shed from the high PV advection and eventually arrives in the southern BOB. Such synoptic patterns provide favorable pumping conditions for local cyclonic vorticity to develop. The latent heating release from the cyclogenesis further intensifies the upper-layer divergence, and the lower and upper circulations become phase locked, leading to the explosive development of the tropical cyclone over the southern BOB. Consequently, a tropical storm is generated and the BOB summer monsoon commences.     

Tracking surface cyclones with moist potential vorticity

1. Introduction There have been two di?erent approaches used fortracking extratropical cyclones. The traditional andmost common approach is to follow the minimum sur-face pressure of a cyclone (e.g., Petterssen, 1956; Car-nell and Senior, 1998; Serreze…     

Development mechanisms of an explosive cyclone over East Sea on 3–4 April 2012

The development mechanisms of the explosive cyclone that occurred during 3–4 April 2012 over East Sea (Sea of Japan) are examined through numerical simulation and sensitivity experiments using the Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) model. The characteristics of this explosive cyclone are different from typical cyclonic features observed in this region, including its intensity, deepening rate, and formation time. Numerical simulation, reanalysis data, upper and surface weather charts, and satellite data indicate that the strong baroclinic instability and temperature advection associated with upper-level cut-off low and the interaction of potential vorticity (PV) anomalies between the lower- and upper-level are essential to explosive cyclogenesis.The sensitivity experiments of the explosive cyclone show that latent heat release (LHR) is an important factor in explosive cyclogenesis. The intensification, extent, and movement speed of the cyclone are amplified by LHR as well as the formation of an upper-level cut-off low. The role of LHR is primary important in the generation and evolution of the cyclone. Especially, the LHR contributes to roughly 50% of decrease in sea level pressure (SLP) and 50% of the central cyclone’s low-level PV generation in initial stage. During a 48-h simulation, the contributions of the LHR, surface heat flux, and their interaction on the decrease of SLP of the cyclone are found to be 40.6, −8.2, and 10.5%, respectively. These results reveal that the explosive cyclone has larger deepening rates than OJ cyclones, and develops with a large amount of LHR near the cyclone center.     

The role of oceanic fluxes and initial data in the numerical prediction of an intense coastal storm

On 18–19 February 1979, an intense cyclone developed along the east coast of the United States and produced heavy snowfall accumulations from Virginia to southeast New York. A series of forecast experiments was conducted to assess the accuracy of the GLA model's prediction of this storm and the importance of oceanic heat and moisture fluxes and initial data to the cyclogenesis. The GLA model forecast from the GLA NOSAT analysis at 0000 GMT 18 February correctly predicted that intense coastal cyclogenesis and heavy precipitation would occur, even though important subsynoptic details of the development were underestimated or not forecast. A repetition of this forecast with surface heat and moisture fluxes eliminated failed to predict any cyclogenesis while a similar forecast with only the surface moisture flux excluded showed only very weak cyclonic development. An extended-range forecast from 0000 GMT 16 February as well as forecasts from the GLA FGGE analysis or the NMC analysis at 0000 GMT 18 February interpolated to the GLA grid predicted weaker coastal low development than the forecast from the NOSAT analysis.Detailed examination of these forecasts shows that diabatic heating resulting from oceanic fluxes increased low-level baroclinicity, decreased static stability and significantly contributed both to the generation of low-level cyclonic vorticity, and to the intensification and slow rate of movement of an upper-level ridge over the western Atlantic. As an upper-level short-wave trough approached this ridge, the diabatic heating associated with the release of latent heat intensified and the gradient of vorticity, vorticity advection and upper-level divergence in advance of the trough were increased, which provided strong forcing for the surface cyclogenesis.An examination of the NMC and GLA analyses indicated that a weaker representation of the upper-level trough in the interpolated NMC analysis was primarily responsible for the resulting forecast differences. Comparison of the GLA FGGE and NOSAT initial analyses showed that the FGGE analysis of cloud-track wind data probably underestimated the maximum wind speeds associated with an upper-level jet streak near the east coast. This diminished the effect of the oceanic fluxes in the forecast from the FGGE analysis and resulted in weaker cyclogenesis.     

A CASE STUDY OF FRONTAL CYCLOGENESIS AND ITS SENSITIVITY TO COASTAL INITIAL CONDITIONS*

In this study,the predictability and physical processes leading to the rapid frontal cyclogenesis,that took place in the east coast of the U.S.during 3-4 October 1987,are examined using a nestedgrid.mesoscale model with a fine-mesh grid size of 25km.It is shown that the model reproduces reasonably well the cyclogenesis in a coastal baroclinic zone.its subsequent deepening and movement as well as the pertinent precipitation.It is found that the frontal cyclogenesis occurs in a favorable large-scale environment with pronounced thermal advection in the lower troposphere and marked potential vorticity(PV) concentration aloft associated with the tropopause depression.The transport of warm and moist air from the marine boundary layer by the low-level in-shore flow provides the necessary energy source for the observed heavy precipitation and a variety of weather phenomena reported in the cold sector.Several 24-h sensitivity simulations are performed to examine the relative importance of diabatic heating,adiabatic dynamics and various initial conditions in the frontal cyclogenesis.It is found that latent heat release,even though quite intense,accounts for only 25% of the cyclone's total deepening in this case:the weak impact seems due to the occurrence of latent heating in the cold sector and the upward lifting of the dynamical tropopause by diabatic updrafts.Vorticity budgets show that the lowlevel thermal advection dominates the incipient stage,whereas the vorticity advection determines the rapid deepening rate at the mature stage.The results reveal that the predictability of the present storm is closely related to the vertical coupling between the surface cyclone and the upper-level PV core,which is in turn determined by initial offshore perturbations in the lower troposphere.     

LOCAL ENERGETICS ON EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF EXTRATROPICAL MARINE CYCLONE

Local energetics on explosive development of extratropical marine cyclone was proposed and adiagnosis of the representative cases was performed from local balance,net volume integrationbudget and vertical distribution using the derived eddy kinetic energy equation and eddy availablepotential energy equation.The results revealed that three primary scenarios are responsible for therapid growth of eddy kinetic energy and explosive cyclogenesis,and that a primary explosivedevelopment mechanism is the enhanced baroclinic instability by eddy heat transport and eddydiabatic heating,and that the explosive eyclogenesis is essentially a product of the peculiarclimatological background bearing strong thermal difference in cold season and its conversionpotential.     

Numerical simulations on the explosive cyclogenesis over the kuroshio current

In this paper, the Pennsylvania State University-NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM4) is used to investigate the explosive oceanic cyclone of 14-15 March 1988 over the warm Kuroshio Current. A series of numerical simulations on this cyclogenesis indicates that the favorable weather condi-tions and strong baroclinity in the low- and middle-level are essential to its explosive development. The explosive cyclogenesis occurred over a wide range of sea surface temperatures (SST’s), which was then characterized by strong baroclinity, the low-level jet (LLJ) was initially formed under the favorable atmospheric circulation and then this LLJ advected the moisture and heat northward for the explosive development of the cyclone, the LLJ played an important role in the process of cyclogenesis. Sensitivity experiments show that the latent heating was a key factor to explosive cyclogenesis, the latent heating deepened the short-wave trough, which resulted in the rapid intensification of the cyclone; while in the explosive intensification stage and continuous de-velopment stage, there was less contribution of local surface processes for the explosion of the cy?clone.     

LOW-DEFORMATION VORTICITY AREAS IN SYNOPTIC-SCALE DISTURBANCES FOR TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS: AN OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS

It has long been known that incipient tropical cyclones (TCs) always occur in synoptic-scale disturbances or tropical cyclogenesis precursors, and the disturbances can intensify only within a limited area during tropical cyclogenesis. An observational analysis of five tropical cyclogenesis events over the western North Pacific during 11 August to 10 September 2004 is conducted to demonstrate the role of synoptic-scale disturbances in establishing a limited area of low-deformation vorticity for tropical cyclogenesis. The analysis of the five tropical cyclogenesis events shows that synoptic-scale tropical cyclogenesis precursors provide a region of low-deformation vorticity, which is measured with large positive values of the Okubo-Weiss (OW) parameter. The OW concentrated areas are within the tropical cyclogenesis precursors with a radius of about 400-500 km and can be found as early as 72 hours prior to the formation of the tropical depression. When the TCs reached the tropical storm intensity, the concentrated OW is confined to an area of 200-300 radius and the storm centers are coincident with the centers of the maximum OW. This study indicates that the tropical cyclogenesis occurs in the low-deformation 18-72 hours prior to the formation of tropical depressions, suggesting the importance of low-deformation vorticity in pre-existent synoptic-scale disturbances. Although the Rossby radius of deformation is reduced in TC genesis precedes, the reduction does not sufficiently make effective conversion of convective heating into kinetic energy within the low-deformation area. Further analysis indicates that the initial development of four of the five disturbances is coupled with the counterclockwise circulation of the mixed Rossby-Gravity (MRG) wave.