Quantitative response of vegetation phenology to temperature and precipitation changes in Eastern Siberia

Significant changes to the world’s climate over the past few decades have had an impact on the development of plants. Vegetation in high latitude regions, where the ecosystems are fragile, is susceptible to climate change. It is possible to better understand vegetation’s phenological response to climate change by examining these areas. Traditional studies have mainly investigated how a single meteorological factor affects changes in vegetation phenology through linear correlation analysis, which...     

北疆西部近50 a来气候、水文变化趋势及其与北大西洋/北极涛动的关系

 根据北疆西部11个气象站点1957—2007气象资料,主要代表性河流1960—2006年流量数据以及1957—2007年NAO和AO时间序列数据,采用趋势分析,Mann-Kendall检验以及相关分析等方法,研究了北疆西部地区近50 a来气候、水文的变化趋势,分析了气候变化对径流的影响,初步探讨了NAO和AO对区域气候变化的影响。研究结果表明,近50 a来,北疆西部地区增温、增湿显著,但二者变化幅度存在季节差异。受气候变化的影响,奎屯河年径流量表现出显著增加趋势。进一步分析发现,奎屯河、四棵树河年径流量的变化主要受温度因子控制,卡琅古尔河、精河和博尔塔拉河的年径流量则主要受降水因子控制。研究表明,艾比湖水域面积同样受气候变化的影响,尤其是与年降水量增加紧密相关,二者相关系数为0.584。相关分析证实NAO和AO确实对北疆西部地区的气候变化具有显著影响。具体体现在,NAO和AO显著的影响研究区冬季温度和全年的温度变化;NAO对整个区域年降水具有显著影响。温度比降水对NAO和AO的响应更敏感。     

中国极端降水事件时空特征及其对夏季温度响应

基于中国1951-2014年728个气象站点日降水数据,利用POT抽样、变异点分析、趋势分析、分段回归等方法全面分析中国极端降水事件（量级、频率与发生时间）非平稳性特征及其对夏季温度响应。研究结果发现中国极端降水量级有明显变异特征,但无显著趋势变化,中国极端降水频率则相反。并且中国极端降水次数在全国大部分区域有显著增加趋势。另外,研究还表明变异点对中国极端降水量级和频率趋势特征有明显的改变,对极端降水发生时间趋势特征改变较弱;中国极端降水发生时间在中南部呈显著上升趋势,其他区域趋势性不显著。中国大部分区域夏季温度呈上升或显著上升趋势,且变异特征显著。在转折点前,中国大部分区域如西部干旱区东南部、东部干旱区西南部、华北区、华中区和西南区北部夏季温度呈下降或显著下降趋势;在转折点后,上述区域夏季温度转为上升或显著上升趋势。     

温度与降水变化的小波分析及其环境效应解释——以东北农牧交错区为例

中国东北农牧交错区属于环境变化的过渡区域和敏感区域 ,是最容易感受气候变化的地带之一。该文运用小波分析方法 ,对 5 0年代以来东北农牧交错区典型站点的温度和降水变化情景进行了分析 ,主要分析了其变化的多尺度特征和规律 ;区域和样地分析结果表明 ,降水与温度的时空变化是导致土地退化和环境变化的重要驱动力     

夏季北极涛动与西北夏季干湿特征的年代际关系

 摘要： 利用中国西北地区（新、青、甘、宁、陕及内蒙古西部地区）1960—2003年131个测站夏季降水量、小型蒸发皿蒸发量，NECP/NCAR月平均再分析资料及夏季北极涛动指数，首先通过降水量和蒸发量定义了均一化干湿指数，进而分析了夏季北极涛动同西北地区夏季干湿特征之间的关系。研究表明：夏季北极涛动与西北地区大部分地区夏季干湿特征之间存在着显著的正相关关系，特别是年代际尺度上关系尤其密切。夏季北极涛动与西北地区夏季干湿特征空间变化的南北差异密切相关，在夏季AO偏强年代，海平面气压场在东亚大陆为正距平，太平洋为负距平;700 hPa风场在贝加尔湖地区及其下方有较强的反气旋性距平环流，西北西风带区出现西风距平，季风区出现北风距平，而500 hPa高度场在中国西北地区表现为西低东高结构。这样使得东亚夏季风偏弱，西北西风带区在夏季以西风气流为主，降水偏多，气候偏湿，而季风区盛行偏北气流，降水偏少，气候偏干。反之亦然。     

On the variation in geocryological,landscape and hydrological conditions in the Arctic zone of East Siberia in connection with climate warming

We examine the interaction of the ice complex with the coastal waters of the Arctic seas and with the waters of the land surface of East Siberia. We report on the development of cryogenic processes which are hazardous for the existence of residential centers on this territory under global climate warming.     

北极涛动异常对西北地区东部沙尘暴频次的影响

利用西北地区东部沙尘暴日数资料、北极涛动指数资料、东亚高低空大气环流形势场资料,分析了沙尘暴日数与北极涛动的关系,进而研究了北极涛动异常年东亚大气环流分布特征,探讨了北极涛动影响西北地区东部沙尘暴的可能途径。结果表明：西北地区东部沙尘暴频次呈波动减少之势,20世纪80年代中期发生气候突变;北极涛动指数与西北地区东部沙尘暴频次显著负相关,二者年际、年代际变化都有较好的应关系,北极涛动正位相年,西北地区东部沙尘暴偏少,反之亦然。究其原因：北极涛动异常对东亚冬季风强度、东亚高低空气压场、风场分布形势有重要影响：北极涛动正位相年,东亚冬季风、蒙古高压均偏弱;500 hPa高度场上,春季西风带纬向环流占优势,极涡面积偏小,强度偏弱,贝加尔湖阻塞高压异常强盛,蒙古国及我国华北和西北地区位于贝加尔湖阻塞高压底部的暖区里,地面至高空西北风偏弱;在这种形势下,整个中高纬度冷空气势力较弱,活动次数偏少,不利于大风、寒潮天气的发生,因此沙尘暴频次也偏少。而北极涛动负位相年基本相反。     

西南地区冬季旱涝特征及其与北极涛动关系

利用1951-2010年我国西南地区内32站月平均降水资料及NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,对西南地区冬季旱涝时空分布特征及其与北极涛动(AO)的关系进行了研究分析.结果表明:近60a西南地区冬季降水量和旱涝事件平均发生频次均呈东南向西北递减分布,其中滇、黔、桂交界处和四川南部为降水偏多事件多发区,而渝、滇西南、黔东部及四川盆地是干旱事件多发区,特旱事件的发生概率也较高,并有逐年增加的趋势;冬季旱涝以周期为12 a、8 a左右的低频振荡最为显著,近几年均处于负位相;冬季AO与西南地区同期降水呈显著的正相关,AO异常偏强(弱)时,则西南地区降水异常偏多(少).     

1月北极涛动异常程度特征及其对北半球同期温度的影响

将1月北极涛动（AO）大气遥相关型的强度分为：正常、异常和极端异常3类典型年进行讨论,发现其同期大气环流及其对北半球温度影响存在显著的异同性：当AO呈异常和极端异常时,均表现为东亚大槽、乌拉尔山、贝加尔湖阻塞高压、阿留申低压的持续、稳定异常,但对应极区涡旋的强度、面积及其向南、向北的扩展等有所差异,与NPO、NAO正、负位相对应,致使冷空气在极地和中、高纬度活动范围不同。极端异常年的影响强度和范围较异常年偏大、偏南,高低空配置使冷空气向北半球中低纬度地区延伸,异常低温可扩展至北太平洋暖池区。     

西伯利亚北极河流有机碳输出特征及影响要素

河流有机碳输出是北极碳循环的重要组分,对气候变化十分敏感。本文利用ArcticGRO的径流及有机碳数据,通过数理统计分析等方法,对2004—2017年间俄罗斯西伯利亚地区的鄂毕河、叶尼塞河和勒拿河有机碳输出进行研究。结果显示：西伯利亚3大河流的年均有机碳输出总量约23 Tg,其中溶解有机碳（DOC）输出约18.55 Tg,占北极地区50%以上,接近颗粒有机碳（POC）输出的4倍。2009—2017年间的年均DOC输出量较1999—2008年存在较大差异,鄂毕河增加18%,叶尼塞河下降13%,而勒拿河增加了近70%。春、夏两季有机碳输出总量占全年85%以上,春季为有机碳输出高峰期,而在鄂毕河流域春、夏季贡献率相当。各流域河流有机碳输出特征不同且具有季节性变化,主要受径流、冻土及人类活动等的影响。其中,DOC输出总量在年际与季节性变化特征上均与径流变化呈显著正相关,随径流增加DOC浓度也相应增大;而多年冻土也因类型及分布差异对河流DOC与POC具有不同程度的影响。研究气候变化下的北极河流有机碳输出特征及影响要素,有助于深入理解北极河流有机碳输出对气候及环境变化的综合响应,为揭示气候变化下的北极碳循环过程奠定基础。     

Anomalous winter temperature and precipitation events in southern China

This paper analyzed the anomalous low-temperature events and the anomalous rain-abundant events in January since 1951 and winter since 1880 for southern China.The anomalous events are defined using ±1σ thresholds.Twelve cold Januaries are identified where temperature anomaly below-1σ,and ten wet Januaries are identified where precipitation anomaly above +1σ.Among these events there are three patterns of cold-wet Januaries,namely 1969,1993 and 2008.The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data are used to check the atmospheric circulation changes in association with the anomalous temperature and precipitation events.The results show that the strong Siberian High(SBH),East Asian trough(EAT) and East Asian jet stream(EAJS) are favorable conditions for low-temperature in southern China.While the anomalous southerly flow at 850 hPa,the weak EAT at 500 hPa,the strong Middle East jet stream(MEJS) and the weaker EAJS are found to accompany a wetter southern China.The cold-wet winters in southern China,such as...更多 January of 2008,are mainly related to a stronger SBH,and the circulation in the middle to upper troposphere is precipitation-favorable.In wet winters,the water vapor below 500 hPa is mainly transported by the anomalous southwesterly flow and the anomalous southern flow over the Indo-China Peninsula and the South China Sea area.The correlation coefficients of MEJS,EAMW(East Asian meridional wind) and EU(Eurasian pattern) to southern China precipitation in January are +0.65,-0.59 and-0.48 respectively,and the correlations for high-pass filtered data are +0.63,-0.55 and-0.44 respectively,the significant level is all at 99%.MEJS,EAMW and EU together can explain 49.4% variance in January precipitation.Explained variance for January and winter temperature by SBH,EU,WP(west Pacific pattern) and AO(Arctic Oscillation) are 47.2% and 51.5%,respectively.There is more precipitation in southern China during El Nio winters,and less precipitation during La Nia winters.And there is no clear evidence that the occurrence of anomalous temperature events in winter over southern China is closely linked to ENSO events.     

Characteristics of precipitation in northern Mauritania and its links with sea surface temperature

This paper deals with the periodic fluctuation of precipitation at three meteorological stations (Atar, Chenguitti, and Akjoujt) in the Adrar and Inchiri provinces in northern Mauritania and its links with sea surface temperature (SST). Trends for these three meteorological stations were evaluated using the Mann–Kendall (MK) nonparametric test, regression analysis, and autocorrelation for persistence analysis. The MK test showed a significant decreasing trend for Akjoujt and an insignificant trend for the other rainfall time series. However, the decreasing linear regression trends were highly significant for the different time series. On the other hand, persistence analysis indicated the presence of a linear Markov type. The cycles found by power spectrum analysis ranged from 0.5 years to about 11 years. The possibility of a connection between precipitation in this region and sunspot numbers was suggested. SST of the Atlantic Ocean, Indian Ocean, and Mediterranean Sea have significant cross-correlations with precipitation in the study area. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation effect was found to be marginal.     

点—轴理论在新疆与西西伯利亚区域经济合作中的应用

积极开展国际间的区域经济合作是地区经济发展的一个新趋势,也是我国对外开放的重要组成部分。中国新疆与俄罗斯西西伯利亚地区地理位置毗连,广泛开展双方的地区间经济合作,不仅有利于促进中俄共同繁荣与发展,而且有利于巩固本地区乃至中亚的安全与稳定。根据本区域所处的经济发展阶段和条件,本文借鉴点—轴发展理论,采用城市首位度、引力模型以及其他定性与定量分析相结合的方法,对区域内不同等级的中心城市和交通基础设施进行了研究,提出以第一和第二亚欧大陆桥为主要经济发展带,打通新西伯利亚市和乌鲁木齐市两个区域发展核心之间的直接陆路通道,建立乌-新经济发展轴,培育起新-西跨境区域合作的"一轴两带"的"工"形空间发展结构。在此基础上,辅以相应的合作模式,整合跨境区域资源,形成新—西地缘经济区,促进区域社会经济发展。     

中国南方冬季异常低温和降水事件

This paper analyzed the anomalous low-temperature events and the anomalous rain-abundant events in January since 1951 and winter since 1880 for southern China.The anomalous events are defined using ±1σ thresholds.Twelve cold Januaries are identified where temperature anomaly below-1σ,and ten wet Januaries are identified where precipitation anomaly above +1σ.Among these events there are three patterns of cold-wet Januaries,namely 1969,1993 and 2008.The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data are used to check the atmospheric circulation changes in association with the anomalous temperature and precipitation events.The results show that the strong Siberian High(SBH),East Asian trough(EAT) and East Asian jet stream(EAJS) are favorable conditions for low-temperature in southern China.While the anomalous southerly flow at 850 hPa,the weak EAT at 500 hPa,the strong Middle East jet stream(MEJS) and the weaker EAJS are found to accompany a wetter southern China.The cold-wet winters in southern China,such as...更多 January of 2008,are mainly related to a stronger SBH,and the circulation in the middle to upper troposphere is precipitation-favorable.In wet winters,the water vapor below 500 hPa is mainly transported by the anomalous southwesterly flow and the anomalous southern flow over the Indo-China Peninsula and the South China Sea area.The correlation coefficients of MEJS,EAMW(East Asian meridional wind) and EU(Eurasian pattern) to southern China precipitation in January are +0.65,-0.59 and-0.48 respectively,and the correlations for high-pass filtered data are +0.63,-0.55 and-0.44 respectively,the significant level is all at 99%.MEJS,EAMW and EU together can explain 49.4% variance in January precipitation.Explained variance for January and winter temperature by SBH,EU,WP(west Pacific pattern) and AO(Arctic Oscillation) are 47.2% and 51.5%,respectively.There is more precipitation in southern China during El Nio winters,and less precipitation during La Nia winters.And there is no clear evidence that the occurrence of anomalous temperature events in winter over southern China is closely linked to ENSO events.     

北极水域船舶事故特征及关联规则分析

北极海冰的大量融化,加速了北极航道开发和利用,对北极水域船舶事故风险管理提出了更高的要求。本文以2008—2017年的北极水域船舶事故数据为样本,运用数据挖掘技术和方法,对北极水域船舶事故进行了时空特征分析,并对船舶属性与事故属性之间的潜在映射关系进行了关联规则挖掘。结果表明:北极水域事故数逐年呈上升的趋势,事故主要发生在巴伦支海东部的俄罗斯摩尔曼斯克港口水域和挪威北部水域;北极水域严重事故受船舶总吨、船旗国、船舶类型、事故类型、事故水域等变量的影响,船舶尺度较大的船舶更容易造成严重事故;北极水域俄罗斯籍渔船的严重事故,很多是由机损事故引发的,但很少造成环境污染。研究结论可辅助海事管理部门和航运企业开展北极水域船舶事故预防和风险管理工作。     

Arctic climate change discourse: the contrasting politics of research agendas in the West and Russia

In this paper we explore how Western scientific concepts and attitudes towards indigenous knowledge, as they pertain to resource management and climate change, differ from the prevailing view in modern Russia. Western indigenous leaders representing the Inuit and Saami peoples are actively engaged in the academic and political discourse surrounding climate change, whereas their Russian colleagues tend to focus more on legislation and self-determination, as a post-Soviet legacy. We contribute to the debate with data from the Nenets tundra, showing how different research has employed the three crucial Western research paradigms of climate change, wildlife management and indigenous knowledge on the ground. We suggest that the daily practice of tundra nomadism involves permanent processes of negotiating one's position in a changing environment, which is why "adaptation" is woven into the society, and cosmology as a whole, rather than being separable into distinct "bodies" of knowledge or Western-designed categories. We argue that research agendas should be placed in their proper local and regional context, and temporal framework: for example, by collaborating with herders on the topics of weather instead of climate change, herding skills instead of wildlife management, and ways of engaging with the tundra instead of traditional ecological knowledge.     

黄河流域NDVI时空变化及其与降水/径流关系

NDVI是表征区域植被覆盖的重要指标。本文把黄河流域划分为 16个区域 ,利用Pathfinder (探路者 )的AVHRR NDVI资料 ,得到各区域 1982～ 1998年NDVI统计序列 ,详细分析了各区域NDVI时空变化特征。研究表明 ,17年来黄河流域各分区年平均NDVI都呈增加趋势 ,说明植被覆盖增加 ,生态环境好转 ,但是 8月份龙羊峡以上和兰河干流区间NDVI则有所下降 ,生态环境有局部恶化趋势。最后研究各区域NDVI与降水、径流和径流系数的年内、年际相关关系 ,结果表明 :从年内变化看 ,黄河流域各区域NDVI变化与降水、径流变化呈明显的正相关 ;从年际变化看 ,黄河流域各区域NDVI波动趋势与降水具有一定的相关性 ,但与径流、径流系数变化的关系相对复杂 ,不具有明显的相关性     

西南地区冬季气温和降水的时空变化

In recent years,the socio-economic impacts of winter extreme climate events have underscored the importance of winter climate anomalies in Southwest China (SWC).The spatio-temporal variability of surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation in SWC and their possible causes have been investigated in this paper based on observational data from 1961 to 2010.The results indicate that SAT anomalies in SWC have two dominate modes,one is homogenous,and the other a zonal dipole.The former is caused by the anomalies of East Asian winter monsoon;the latter arises from the anomalies of both subtropical west Pacific high and regional cold air in lower troposphere.The most dominant mode of precipitation anomalies in SWC is homogenous and it has a high correlation with northern hemisphere annular mode (NAM,AO).Neither NAM nor ENSO has significant impacts on SAT in SWC.The anomalies of NAM are associated with the anomalies of tropical circulations,and there-fore precipitation over the SWC.When NAM is in positive (negative) phase,the winter pre-cipitation is more (less) than normal in SWC.Winter precipitation increase over the whole SWC is associated with the El Nino.However,during La Nina winter,the pattern is not uni-form.There is an increase in precipitation over the central parts and a decrease in western and eastern parts of SWC.The severe drought in SWC in winter 2010 is more likely caused by anomalies of NAM,not El Nino.