Accounting for Temporal Variations in Large-Scale Retrospective Studies of Agricultural Chemicals in Ground Water

Ground water studies that require long data collection periods may be affected by temporal changes in ground water chemistry. Seasonal fluctuations in ground water chemistry are particularly apparent in shallow aquifers. Of specific interest is the inclusion of temporal variability in the design of statistical surveys of agricultural chemicals in well water. Statistical treatment of temporal variability involves selecting a probability sample from temporal units. The selection strategy may include repeating the same spatial units in each temporal stratum or choosing an independent sample of spatial units for each temporal stratum. The appropriate strategy depends on the specific study objectives. Failure to account for temporal variability may compromise the validity of study conclusions. An example of a large-scale retrospective survey designed to estimate temporal averages of water quality across all wells is presented.     

Temporal stability of soil moisture in an oasis of northwestern China

Temporal stability of soil moisture has been widely used in hydrological monitoring since it emerged. However, the spatial analysis of temporal stability at the landscape scale is often limited because of insufficient sampling numbers. This work made an effort to investigate the spatial variations of temporal stability of soil moisture in an oasis landscape. The specific objectives of the study were to explore the spatial patterns of temporal stability and to determine the controlling factors of temporal stability in the desert oasis. A time series of soil moisture measurements were gathered on 23 occasions at 118 locations over 3 years in a rectangular transect of approximately 100 km². The nonparametric Spearman's rank correlation coefficient, standard deviation of relative difference (SDRD), and mean absolute bias error (MABE) were used to quantify the temporal stability of soil moisture. Results showed that the temporal stability of soil moisture was depth dependent and season dependent. The spatial pattern of soil moisture in a deep soil layer and between two same seasons generally had a high temporal stability. SDRD and MABE were spatially autocorrelated and exhibited strong spatial structures in the geographic space. The concept of temporal stability can be extended to describe the time‐stable areas of soil moisture with geostatistics. There were great differences between SDRD and MABE in describing the temporal stability of soil moisture and in identifying the controlling factors of temporal stability. In this case, MABE was a better alternative to estimate the areal mean soil moisture using representative locations than SDRD. Land use type, soil moisture condition, and soil particle composition were the dominant controls of temporal stability in the oasis. These insights could help to better understand the essence of temporal stability of soil moisture in arid regions.     

Sub-monthly gravity field recovery from simulated multi-GRACE mission type

Monthly solutions of the current GRACE mission are affected by the aliasing problem. In fact, sub-monthly temporal sampling may reduce the temporal aliasing errors but this will be done at the cost of reduced spatial sampling. Reducing the effects of temporal aliasing can be achieved by setting two pairs of satellites in different orbital planes. In this paper, we investigate the so-called Multi-GRACE constellation to improve temporal and spatial resolution for the GRACE-type mission without deteriorating accuracy. We investigate two scenarios: the Multi-GRACE ΔM that improves the temporal sampling only and the Multi-GRACE ΔΩ that improves the spatial sampling besides the temporal one in time span of only 12 days for the hydrological signal as a time-varying gravity field component. Our findings indicate that the hydrological signal can be submonthly recovered and the aliasing errors can be reduced as well by increasing temporal resolution (sub-month) via the Multi-GRACE ΔΩ constellations.     

Complexity analysis of rainfall and runoff time series based on sample entropy in different temporal scales

This study applied sample entropy (SampEn) to rainfall and runoff time series to investigate the complexity of different temporal scales. Rainfall and runoff time series with intervals of 1, 10, 30, 90, and 365 days for the Wu-Tu upstream watershed were used. Thereafter, SampEn was computed for the five rainfall and runoff time series. The results show that for the various temporal scales, comparisons of the complexity between the rainfall and runoff time series based on the SampEn are inconsistent. Calculating the dynamic SampEn further elucidated variations of the complexity in the rainfall and runoff time series. In addition, the results show that SampEn measures of the rainfall and runoff time series are typically higher than the approximate entropy measures of the rainfall and runoff time series for a specific temporal scale. The complexity increases when the sample size increases for a specific temporal scale. Furthermore, temporal scales with low complexity and high predictability are obtained from the variations of SampEn for the rainfall and runoff time series with different temporal scales, thereby providing a reference for determining the appropriate temporal scale for rainfall and runoff time series forecasting.     

Identification of appropriate lags and temporal resolutions for low flow indicators in the River Rhine to forecast low flows with different lead times

The aim of this paper is to assess the relative importance of low flow indicators for the River Rhine and to identify their appropriate temporal lag and resolution. This is done in the context of low flow forecasting with lead times of 14 and 90 days. First, the Rhine basin is subdivided into seven sub‐basins. By considering the dominant processes in the sub‐basins, five low flow indicators were selected: precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, groundwater storage, snow storage and lake storage. Correlation analysis was then carried out to determine the relationship between observed low flows and preselected indicators with varying lags (days) and temporal resolutions (from 1 day to 7 months). The results show that the most important low flow indicators in the Alpine sub‐basins for forecasts with a lead time of 14 days are potential evapotranspiration with a large lag and temporal resolution, and lake levels with a small lag and temporal resolution. In the other sub‐basins groundwater levels with a small lag and temporal resolution are important in addition to potential evapotranspiration with a large lag and temporal resolution. The picture is slightly different for forecasts with a lead time of 90 days. The snow storage in the Alpine sub‐basins and the precipitation in the other sub‐basins also become relevant for low flows. Consequently, the most important low flow indicators in the Alpine sub‐basins for forecasts with a lead time of 90 days are potential evapotranspiration with a large lag and temporal resolution, lake levels with a small lag and temporal resolution and snow storage with a small lag and large temporal resolution. The resultant correlation maps provide appropriate lags and temporal resolutions for indicators to forecast low flows in the River Rhine with different lead times. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Improved daily GRACE gravity field solutions using a Kalman smoother

Different GRACE data analysis centers provide temporal variations of the Earth's gravity field as monthly, 10-daily or weekly solutions. These temporal mean fields cannot model the variations occurring during the respective time span. The aim of our approach is to extract as much temporal information as possible out of the given GRACE data. Therefore the temporal resolution shall be increased with the goal to derive daily snapshots. Yet, such an increase in temporal resolution is accompanied by a loss of redundancy and therefore in a reduced accuracy if the daily solutions are calculated individually. The approach presented here therefore introduces spatial and temporal correlations of the expected gravity field signal derived from geophysical models in addition to the daily observations, thus effectively constraining the spatial and temporal evolution of the GRACE solution. The GRACE data processing is then performed within the framework of a Kalman filter and smoother estimation procedure.The approach is at first investigated in a closed-loop simulation scenario and then applied to the original GRACE observations (level-1B data) to calculate daily solutions as part of the gravity field model ITG-Grace2010. Finally, the daily models are compared to vertical GPS station displacements and ocean bottom pressure observations.From these comparisons it can be concluded that particular in higher latitudes the daily solutions contain high-frequent temporal gravity field information and represent an improvement to existing geophysical models.     

洪泽湖水质的时空相关性分析

时空相关性分析方法在生态环境空间分异笥以及湖泊湿地自然保护区建设等方面的研究上,具有重要的应用价值。将湖泊水质监测数据与空间数据结合,建立了具有时空特征的洪渗湖水质数据库。基于相关系数矩阵,利用GIS和Origin等分析软件,对洪泽湖水质的时空相关性及其时间和空间分布规律进行了研究。结果表明,洪泽湖水质存在着时空相关性,目前这种时空相关性已受到人类活动的强烈干扰,因此,建议洪泽湖湿地自然保护区应该选择在时空间相关性小,具有一定离群性的“岛屿”区域。     

基于新的差分结构的时-空域高阶有限差分波动方程数值模拟方法

传统的高阶有限差分波动方程数值模拟方法采用高阶差分算子近似空间偏导数,能有效抑制空间频散.然而,传统的有限差分法仅采用二阶差分算子近似时间偏导数,这使得地震波场沿时间外推的精度较低.当采用较大的时间采样间隔,传统的有限差分法模拟波场会出现明显的时间频散,甚至不稳定.本文基于新的差分结构和中心网格剖分,发展了一种空间任意偶数阶精度、时间四阶和六阶精度的时空域有限差分方法.基于对离散后的频散关系进行泰勒展开,本文推导了时空域高阶有限差分算子的差分系数.相速度分析表明时间四阶、六阶精度的差分方法能显著地减小传统时间二阶精度差分方法的时间频散.在相同的精度下与传统差分法比较,本文发展的时间四阶、六阶有限差分方法的计算效率比传统方法高.均匀和非匀均介质中的波场数值模拟实验进一步证实本文研究的时空高阶有限差分方法的优越性.     

我国几次大震及震群活动的时间分维特征

本文根据Mandellrot提出的分维理论,对我国三次大震及四次震群活动的时间分维进行了研究,得到如下结论:1.时间分维的总体特征:大震前分维较低,震后分维升高。2.时间分维的动态变化特征:火震前的分维呈现一总趋势的降维过程,且幅度较大;而震群的时间分维变化较平稳。3.对同一地震序列,起始震级愈低,计算出的分维值愈高;起始震级愈高,计算出的分维值愈低。笔者认为,地震序列起止时间的选取对计算时间分维会产生较大影响。     

大震前地磁场时空间线性度变化的初步研究

把用来分析地震波波形的时间线性度和空间线性度两种方法，应用到地磁资料分析当中，具体分析处理了１９７６年７月２８日唐山Ｍｓ７．８地震和１９８９年１０月１９日大同Ｍｓ６．１地震前后地磁场资料，并对这两次地震前后地磁时空线性度变化情况进行了研究。所得结果表明：①较大地震前地磁场的时空线性度均可能呈现出较明显的下降异常变化，有些在震前回升，②各分量的时空线性度呈现异常的时间基本上同步，并与波速异常发展趋势基本相符。     

AN EXPERIMENTAL STUDY ON TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL PROCESSES OF WANDERING-BRAIDED RIAVER CHANNEL EVOLUTION

1INTRODUCTIONErgodichypothesisisoneofthebasicconceptsofmoderngeomorphology.Itsuggeststhatundercertaincircumstancessamplinginspacecanbeequivalenttosamplingthroughtime;andthatspace-timetransformationsarepermissibleasaworkingtool.Thisisbasedontheassumptionthat,whenindividualmembersofapopulationoflandformsarechangingregularlythroughtime,thespatialfrequencyofoccurrenceofgiventypesoflandformsisinverselyproportionaltotheirrateofchange(Chorley,etal.,1985).TheconceptofthecycleofDavis'erosioninwhi…     

Effects of temporal resolution on hydrological model parameters and its impact on prediction of river discharge / Effets de la résolution temporelle sur les paramètres d'un modèle hydrologique et impact sur la prévision de l'écoulement en rivière

Abstract

Temporal resolution of rainfall plays an important role in determining the hydrological response of river basins. Rainfall temporal variability can be considered as one of the most critical elements when dealing with input data of rainfall—runoff models. In this paper, a typical lumped rainfall—runoff model is applied to long- and short-term runoff prediction using rainfall data sets with different temporal resolution, including daily, hourly and 10-min interval data, and the dependency of model performance on the time interval of the rainfall data is discussed. Furthermore, the effect of temporal resolution on model parameter values is analysed. As results, rainfall data with shorter temporal resolution provide better performance in short-term river discharge estimation, especially for storm discharge estimation. The most accurate results are obtained on the peak discharge and recession part of the hydrograph by using 10-min interval rainfall data. It is concluded that model parameter values are influenced not only by the temporal resolution of calculation but also by the rainfall intensity—duration relationship. This study provides useful information about determination of hydrological model parameters using data of different temporal resolutions.     

IMAGE: a multivariate multi-site stochastic weather generator for European weather and climate

Capturing the spatial and temporal correlation of multiple variables in a weather generator is challenging. A new massively multi-site, multivariate daily stochastic weather generator called IMAGE is presented here. It models temperature and precipitation variables as latent Gaussian variables with temporal behaviour governed by an auto-regressive model whose residuals and parameters are correlated through resampling of principle component time series of empirical orthogonal function modes. A case study using European climate data demonstrates the model’s ability to reproduce extreme events of temperature and precipitation. The ability to capture the spatial and temporal extent of extremes using a modified Climate Extremes Index is demonstrated. Importantly, the model generates events covering not observed temporal and spatial scales giving new insights for risk management purposes.     

地电阻率的数值模拟和多极距观测系统

本文利用高精度的多层水平层状介质视电阻率计算公式,模拟了不同结构剖面、不同装置极距、不同规律的真电阻率变化,以及这种变化在介质中所处不同部位条件下地表视电阻率变化的计算结果;讨论了发生于介质中的真电阻率随时间变化在上述各种不同条件下,与在地表观测到的地电阻率(即视电阻率)变化两者之间的关系;指出为了解次异常变化与干扰变化的识别问题,应当将现行单一极距观测改造为多极距观测,并研究和发展相应的地电阻率随时间变化的反演技术和方法,以促进地电阻率法预报地震从看图识字的被动状态向物理预报方向转化。      

Functional time series analysis of spatio–temporal epidemiological data

Spatio–temporal statistical models have been proposed for the analysis of the temporal evolution of the geographical pattern of mortality (or incidence) risks in disease mapping. However, as far as we know, functional approaches based on Hilbert-valued processes have not been used so far in this area. In this paper, the autoregressive Hilbertian process framework is adopted to estimate the functional temporal evolution of mortality relative risk maps. Specifically, the penalized functional estimation of log-relative risk maps is considered to smooth the classical standardized mortality ratio. The reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) norm is selected for definition of the penalty term. This RKHS-based approach is combined with the Kalman filtering algorithm for the spatio–temporal estimation of risk. Functional confidence intervals are also derived for detecting high risk areas. The proposed methodology is illustrated analyzing breast cancer mortality data in the provinces of Spain during the period 1975–2005. A simulation study is performed to compare the ARH(1) based estimation with the classical spatio–temporal conditional autoregressive approach.     

Clustering of mining-induced seismic events in equivalent dimension spaces

High energy release during seismic events induced by mining operation is one of the major dangers perturbing production in underground mines. In this work, temporal changes of seismic event parameters for one of the Rudna Mine (Poland) panels are investigated. The study aim was to find whether the temporal clustering of smaller events in different parameters can be observed before and after the high energy events (M_l?≥?3) in the mining panel. The method chosen for analysis was the study of temporal variation of fractal dimension of the seismic events parameter sets composed from: the interevent epicentral distance (dr), logarithm of seismic energy (lE), and interevent energy coefficient (dlE), which is the absolute difference between logarithms of energy of two consecutive events. Temporal variations study was performed in equivalent dimension (ED) space. The transformation of the seismic source parameters into ED space allowed to estimate and compare the temporal changes of the fractal dimension of different parameter spaces using the same method—correlation fractal dimension, and then easily compare the obtained temporal changes of fractal dimension of different parameter sets. The effect of grouping is expressed by decrease of fractal dimension, which is connected with the similarity of events parameter values. The temporal changes of the fractal dimension of seismicity before the strong induced events would indicate some initiation phase of the process leading to the high energy release. In the case of the studied Rudna Mine panel, the temporal behavior of the fractal dimension values in different parameter spaces before seismic events showed significant changes before three out of four events with CLVD dominant source mechanisms.     

Geospatial-temporal analysis of land-use changes in the Yellow River Delta during the last 40 years

Research on land use/land cover changes (LUCC)has been the core project of the Global EnvironmentalChanges since the 1990s[1—6]. Scientists at home andabroad have been laying emphasis on integrationstudies on land-use change by “space and process”features[7—10] as researches on LUCC are in a greatdeal. It is of paramount important for us to studyLUCC at various spatial-temporal scales and build aquantitative assessment of land-use conversion by in-tegrated spatial-temporal features. …     

Experimental assessment and prediction of temporal scour depth around a spur dike

Spur dikes are river training structures that have been extensively used worldwide for towards enhancing flood control and the stability of embankments and riverbanks.However,scour around spur dikes can be a major problem affecting their stability and hydraulic performance.The precise computation of temporal scour depth at spur dikes is very important for the design of economical and safe spur dikes.This study focuses on experimentally assessing the temporal variation of scour depth around a vertical wall spur dike and identifying the parameters,which mostly influence spur dike performance for a channel bed surface comprised of sand-gravel mixtures.In the current study,the authors did physical experiments in a flume based study to obtain new data,aimed at deriving a new predictive model for spur dike scour and comparing its performance to others found in the literature.It was found that the dimensionless temporal scour depth variation increases with an increase in(i)the threshold velocity ratio,(ii)the densimetric Froude number of the bed surface sediment mixture,(iii)the flow shallowness(defined as the ratio of the approach flow depth,y,to the spur dike’s transverse length,l),and(iv)the flow depth-particle size ratio.It is also concluded that the temporal scour depth variation in the sediment mixture is influenced by the non-uniformity of sediment and decreases with an increase in the non-uniformity of the sediment mixture.A new mathematical model is derived for the estimation of temporal scour depths in sand-gravel sediment mixtures.The proposed equation has been calibrated and validated with the experimental data,demonstrating a good predictive capacity for the estimation of temporal scour depth evolution.     

Analysis and modelling of rainfall fields at different resolutions in southern Italy

Abstract

The spatial and temporal variability of the scaling properties and correlation structure of a data set of rainfall time series, aggregated over different temporal resolutions, and observed in 70 raingauges across the Basilicata and Calabria regions of southern Italy, is investigated. Two types of random cascade model, namely canonical and microcanonical models, were used for each raingauge and selected season. For both models, different hypotheses concerning dependency of parameters on time scale and rainfall height can be adopted. In particular, a new approach is proposed which consists of several combinations of models with a different scale dependence of parameters for different temporal resolutions. The goal is to improve the modelling of the main features of rainfall time series, especially for cases where the variability of rainfall changes irregularly with temporal aggregation. The results obtained with the new methodology showed good agreement with the observed data, in particular, for the summer months. In fact, during this season, rainfall heights aggregated at fine temporal resolutions (from 5 to 20 min) are more similar (relative to the winter season) to the values cumulated on 1 or 3 h (due to convective phenomena) and, consequently, the process of rainfall breakdown is nearly stationary for a range of finer temporal resolutions.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor A. Montanari     

亚洲大地震的时间有序性与沙罗周期

根据作者在1997年提出的“信息有序系列”的概念和方法,研究了一些亚洲大地震的时间有序性,本文列举1934-1970年期间亚洲M≥8级大地震,中国历史M≥8级大地震,兴都库什地区中深震（Ms≥7）,结果表明,这些地震的一些时间有序性与反映日食序列变化的沙罗周期关系较密切。亚洲6个8级大地震时间间隔的数值在2130-2210d的范围内,这是地震时间有序性的一个好例子。这表明,时间有序性具有周期性不能描述的特性,它和新兴的复杂性科学有密切联系。