Hydrological uncertainty processor based on a copula function

Quantifying the uncertainty in hydrological forecasting is valuable for water resources management and decision-making processes. The hydrological uncertainty processor (HUP) can quantify hydrological uncertainty and produce probabilistic forecasts under the hypothesis that there is no input uncertainty. This study proposes a HUP based on a copula function, in which the prior density and likelihood function are explicitly expressed, and the posterior density and distribution obtained using Monte Carlo sampling. The copula-based HUP was applied to the Three Gorges Reservoir, and compared with the meta-Gaussian HUP. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and relative error were used as evaluation criteria for deterministic forecasts, while predictive QQ plot, reliability, resolution and continuous rank probability score (CRPS) were used for probabilistic forecasts. The results show that the proposed copula-based HUP is comparable to the meta-Gaussian HUP in terms of the posterior median forecasts, and that its probabilistic forecasts have slightly higher reliability and lower resolution compared to the meta-Gaussian HUP. Based on the CRPS, both HUPs were found superior to deterministic forecasts, highlighting the effectiveness of probabilistic forecasts, with the copula-based HUP marginally better than the meta-Gaussian HUP.     

Hydrological connectivity of soil pipes determined by ground‐penetrating radar tracer detection

Soil pipes are common and important features of many catchments, particularly in semi‐arid and humid areas, and can contribute a large proportion of runoff to river systems. They may also signi?cantly in?uence catchment sediment and solute yield. However, there are often problems in ?nding and de?ning soil pipe networks which are located deep below the surface. Ground‐penetrating radar (GPR) has been used for non‐destructive identi?cation and mapping of soil pipes in blanket peat catchments. While GPR can identify subsurface cavities, it cannot alone determine hydrological connectivity between one cavity and another. This paper presents results from an experiment to test the ability of GPR to establish hydrological connectivity between pipes through use of a tracer solution. Sodium chloride was injected into pipe cavities previously detected by the radar. The GPR was placed downslope of the injection points and positioned on the ground directly above detected soil pipes. The resultant radargrams showed signi?cant changes in re?ectance from some cavities and no change from others. Pipe waters were sampled in order to check the radar results. Changes in electrical conductivity of the pipe water could be detected by the GPR, without data post‐processing, when background levels were increased by more than approximately twofold. It was thus possible to rapidly determine hydrological connectivity of soil pipes within dense pipe networks across hillslopes without ground disturbance. It was also possible to remotely measure travel times through pipe systems; the passing of the salt wave below the GPR produced an easily detectable signal on the radargram which required no post‐processing. The technique should allow remote sensing of water sources and sinks for soil pipes below the surface. The improved understanding of ?owpath connectivity will be important for understanding water delivery, solutional and particulate denudation, and hydrological and geomorphological model development. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

太湖流域水文连通性:现状、研究进展与未来挑战

水文连通性作为连接河湖水体间物质、能量及信息传递与交换的关键纽带,对水环境、水生态和生境状况具有联动与触发反馈作用,已成为水文学、水利学和生态学等诸多领域的研究热点.太湖流域作为全国典型的流域性密集平原河网区,在快速城镇化背景下,河湖水文连通关系变化剧烈并引起了一系列生态环境效应.本文以水文连通性概念与内涵为背景,对太湖流域水文连通性研究进行了综述.太湖流域水文连通性评价方法以图论法、景观格局指数及水文连通性函数等方法联合使用为主,且聚焦于区域尺度研究;演变过程按人类活动影响强度大致划分为自然水系形成阶段、古代人类活动影响阶段和现代人类活动影响阶段;气候变化和人类活动共同影响着太湖流域水文连通性变化,近百年来水利工程建设和城市化进程等人类活动的影响尤为剧烈;良好的水文连通性有利于汛期减轻流域洪涝灾害及非汛期保障水资源供给,但水文连通性的提高对水环境和水生态的效应由于涉及因素众多尚存在争议.针对当前研究现状和存在问题,提出(1)平原河网区水文连通性的定量表征与评估是水文连通性研究的前提;(2)定量解析流域水文连通性的驱动机制是水文连通性研究的重点;(3)深入跟踪大型引水调水工程对流域水文连通影响及其效应是一项长期任务;(4)兼顾环境生态效应的水利工程生态化改造研究,开展工程控制背景下的流域水文连通多目标优化调控,是实现太湖流域洪水调蓄、水资源供给、水环境净化、生物多样性维持等生态系统服务协同提升的重要途径.     

基于水平衡模型的呼伦湖湖泊水量变化

针对北方寒旱区呼伦湖水位下降、水面萎缩的现象,根据气候特征,利用月水量平衡模型探究湖泊水文过程并揭示其变化规律.在此基础上,利用不同气候条件下各水平衡项对于湖泊水位的影响程度确定水位升降的直接原因.基于1963-1980年间水位的实测数据,根据水量平衡原理及其他辅助计算判断出湖泊与周边区域存在着地下水的交换,且具有一定的规律性,即历年11月至次年3月期间的累积降雪融化渗入土壤中形成浅层径流补给湖泊,而7、8月份湖泊补给周边草原.基于以上规律,根据周边坡面汇流、地下水与湖泊交换量的年内变化特征,利用水平衡方程式推算湖泊1981-2008年逐月水位变化,并与其他研究成果比较,吻合度较高.不同气候条件下,径流量对于湖泊水位的影响程度最为突出,是水位变化的主控因子.     

基于质心频移的无线电波透视层析成像

介绍了质心频移的基本理论,在频域内对信号质心频移进行了数值模拟,数值模拟表明,接收信号的质心频率向零点发生了明显的漂移,验证了质心频移理论的正确性.对正方形异常体模型进行了频谱分析,可以看出穿过异常体的信号的振幅发生了明显的变化.根据正演模拟得到的数据,利用质心频移法对模型进行了层析成像,成像结果基本反映了异常体在模型中的位置,验证了质心频移法探测工作面异常体的有效性和可行性.     

Hydrological characterization and connectivity of proglacial lakes to a stream,Adygine ice-debris complex,northern Tien Shan

ABSTRACT

In this study, we characterized the glacial meltwater flow through a proglacial area with a focus on proglacial lakes, their hydrological regime and their connection to the stream. The studied lakes – the Adygine ice-debris complex, northern Tien Shan – showed a distinct development throughout an ablation season: at Lake 2, the mean daily water-level fluctuation amplitude increased from 0.07 m to 0.18 m (June, August), then dropped to 0.07 m in September. Glacial meltwater flows through the lakes and further downstream through a rock glacier rather fast, moving at 0.085 m s^?1. However, based on the low dye recovery in the stream (0.03%), only a small portion of water was routed efficiently. The complexity of the site’s drainage system was supported by varying isotopic composition of water in the tarns situated on the rock glacier, with Tarn a (δ²H: –36.08‰; δ¹⁸O: –6.25‰) being the most enriched and Tarn c (δ²H: 78.68‰; δ¹⁸O: 11.9‰) the most depleted in heavy isotopes.     

Hydrological benches on Manych

The structure and development of hydrological benches, which regulate water discharge from Caspian transgressions into the Black Sea are considered.     

Cold-regions Hydrological Indicators of Change (CHIC) for ecological flow needs assessment

Abstract

Ecological flow needs (EFN) frameworks incorporate a range of ecologically-relevant hydrological variables based on prior knowledge of river regime characteristics. However, when applied in cold regions, these approaches have largely ignored the influence of winter ice cover and the spring freshet on hydrological regimes: key components of river systems in cold regions with important direct effects on water quality, aquatic habitat and ecology. Here, we combine a review of the published literature on cold-regions hydrology and hydro-ecology with available hydrometric information for sites across Canada, a major cold-region country, to explore phenomena unique to these systems. We identify several ecologically-relevant hydrological measures (i.e. annual ice on/off dates, ice-cover duration, spring freshet initiation, peak water level during river ice break-up), pairing these with established metrics for incorporation into an enhanced suite of indicators specifically designed for cold regions. This paper presents the Cold-regions Hydrological Indicators of Change (CHIC), which can provide the basis for the assessment of EFN and climate change assessments in cold-region river ecosystems.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Guest editor M. Acreman

Citation Peters, D.L., Monk, W.A., and Baird, D.J., 2014. Cold-regions Hydrological Indicators of Change (CHIC) for ecological flow needs assessment. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (3–4), 502–516.     

Hydrological model comparison and assessment: criteria from catchment scales and temporal resolution

ABSTRACT

This study examines the performance of three hydrological models, namely the artificial neural network (ANN) model, the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning-D (HBV-D) model, and the Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM) over the upper reaches of the Huai River basin. The assessment is done by using databases of different temporal resolution and by further examining the applicability of SWIM for different catchment sizes. The results show that at monthly scale the performance of the ANN model is better than that of HBV-D and SWIM. The ANN model can be applied at any temporal scale as it establishes an artificial precipitation–runoff relationship for various time scales by only using monthly precipitation, temperature and runoff data. However, at daily scale the performance of both HBV-D and SWIM are similar or even better than the ANN model. In addition, the performance of SWIM at a small catchment size (less than 10 000 km²) is much better than at a larger catchment size. In view of climate change modelling, HBV-D and SWIM might be integrated in a dynamical atmosphere-water-cycle modelling rather than the ANN model due to their use of observed physical links instead of artificial relations within a black box.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor D. Hughes     

基于改进振幅衰减常数的无线电波透视层析成像研究

为提高无线电波透视的探测精度,将改进的振幅衰减常数引入层析成像技术,给出改进的振幅衰减常数表达式,该常数不仅与电导率、介电常数、频率等参数与有关,而且与电磁波入射角度密切相关.基于射线理论采用阻尼约束的代数重建算法(ART)对陷落柱模型进行层析成像模拟,分析对比改进振幅衰减常数与经典振幅衰减常数的绝对衰减层析成像和相对衰减层析成像的反演重建效果.结果表明:改进振幅衰减常数的成像效果显著优于经典振幅衰减常数;绝对衰减层析成像对构造的横向定位较为准确,相对衰减层析成像容易造成真实构造的局部缺失.将改进的振幅衰减常数应用于工作面隐伏陷落柱的实际探测工作,取得了良好的应用效果.     

The effects of topographic depressions on multiscale overland flow connectivity: A high‐resolution spatiotemporal pattern analysis approach based on connectivity statistics

In watershed modelling, the traditional practice of arbitrarily filling topographic depressions in digital elevation models has raised concerns. Advanced high‐resolution remote sensing techniques, including airborne scanning laser altimetry, can identify naturally occurring depressions that impact overland flow. In this study, we used an ensemble physical and statistical modelling approach, including a 2D hydraulic model and two‐point connectivity statistics, to quantify the effects of depressions on high‐resolution overland flow patterns across spatial scales and their temporal variations in single storm events. Computations for both models were implemented using graphic processing unit‐accelerated computing. The changes in connectivity statistics for overland flow patterns between airborne scanning laser altimetry‐derived digital elevation models with (original) and without (filled) depressions were used to represent the shifts of overland flow response to depressions. The results show that depressions can either decrease or increase (to a lesser degree and shorter duration) the probability that any two points (grid locations) are hydraulically connected by overland flow pathways. We used macro‐connectivity states (Φ) as a watershed‐specific indicator to describe the spatiotemporal thresholds of connectivity variability caused by depressions. Four states of Φ are identified in a studied watershed, and each state represents different magnitudes of connectivity and connectivity changes (caused by depressions). The magnitude of connectivity variability corresponds to the states of Φ, which depend on the topological relationship between depressions, the rising/recession limb, and the total rainfall amount in a storm event. In addition, spatial distributions of connectivity variability correlate with the density of depression locations and their physical structures, which cause changes in streamflow discharge magnitude. Therefore, this study suggests that depressions are “nontrivial” in watershed modelling, and their impacts on overland flow should not be neglected. Connectivity statistics at different spatial scales and time points within a watershed provide new insights for characterizing the distributed and accumulated effects of depressions on overland flow.     

An improved process-based representation of stream solute transport in the soil and water assessment tools

Hydrological models have long been used to study the interactions between land, surface and groundwater systems, and to predict and manage water quantity and quality. The soil and water assessment tool (SWAT), a widely used hydrological model, can simulate various ecohydrological processes on land and subsequently route the water quality constituents through surface and subsurface waters. So far, in-stream solute transport algorithms of the SWAT model have only been minimally revised, even though it has been acknowledged that an improvement of in-stream process representation can contribute to better model performance with respect to water quality. In this study, we aim to incorporate a new and improved solute transport model into the SWAT model framework. The new process-based model was developed using in-stream process equations from two well established models—the One-dimensional Transport with Inflow and Storage model and the Enhanced Stream Water Quality Model. The modified SWAT model (Mir-SWAT) was tested for water quality predictions in a study watershed in Germany. Compared to the standard SWAT model, Mir-SWAT improved dissolved oxygen (DO) predictions by removing extreme low values of DO (<6 mg/L) simulated by SWAT. Phosphate concentration peaks were reduced during high flows and a better match of daily predicted and measured values was attained using the Mir-SWAT model (R² = 0.17, NSE = −0.65, RSR = 1.29 with SWAT; R² = 0.28, NSE = −0.04, RSR = 1.02 with Mir-SWAT). In addition, Mir-SWAT performed better than the SWAT model in terms of Chlorophyll-a content particularly during winter months, improving the NSE and RSR for monthly average Chl-a by 74 and 42%, respectively. With the new model improvements, we aim to increase confidence in the stream solute transport component of the model, improve the understanding of nutrient dynamics in the stream, and to extend the applicability of SWAT for reach-scale analysis and management.     

Density effects on solute release from streambeds

Contaminants that entered the streambed during previous surface water pollution events can be released to the stream, causing secondary pollution of the stream and impacting its eco-environmental condition. By means of laboratory experiments and numerical simulations, we investigated density effects on the release of solute from periodic bedforms. The results show that solute release from the upper streambed is driven by bedform-induced convection, and that density effects generally inhibit the solute release from the lower streambed. Density gradients modify the pore water flow patterns and form circulating flows in the area of lower streambed. The formation of circulating flows is affected by density gradients associated with the solute concentration and horizontal pressure gradients induced by stream slope. The circulating flows near the bottom of the streambed enhance mixing of the hyporheic zone and the ambient flow zone.     

Quantifying sediment connectivity: Moving toward a holistic assessment through a mixed methods approach

The sediment connectivity concept is particularly suitable for tackling complex, multidisciplinary questions through systems thinking. However, it is unclear how to directly measure connectivity, and so proxy variables are often applied by indices to provide estimates. In this study, we critically evaluate a broad range of connectivity indices encompassing structural and functional connectivity as well as hillslope channel coupling. We then discuss their role in providing a more holistic estimation of connectivity within the Tahoma Creek Watershed, WA. Of the 14 km of channel below the glacier front, the upper 6 km (0–6 km) are coupled to the adjacent hillslopes. Coupled reaches correspond to regions with a high proportion of area contributing sediment and relatively high connectivity values, where all measures decrease in the downstream direction. A significant transition occurs near river kilometer 6. Here the valley bottom abruptly widens, deposition occurs, and the hillslopes become decoupled from the active channel. This transitional reach is also identified as a geomorphic hotspot based on the network structure. The lower 8 km of channel downstream of this reach are largely depositional and percent contributing area and connectivity values remain low, eventually reaching a minimum. Despite their limitations, we found each method to provide unique and useful information regarding connectivity. The effect of scale and event magnitude on connectivity is illustrated. We also found vegetation, topographic characteristics, and network structure to be important in high-gradient glacio-volcanic landscapes. The choice of an index will depend on the research objectives, data availability, and the proxy variables that best describe the variability within the defined area.     

Seismic damage assessment based on different hysteretic rules

The inelastic response of a single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) system to different sets of earthquake records was analysed to study the significance of ground motion characteristics on structural damage. Six non-linear models were used. The ductility ratio and hysteretic energy index were chosen as two important damage indices to measure the structural damage. The dispersion phenomenon exhibited by yield spectra due to input ground motion was reduced by incorporating the ground motion a/v ratio into the two damage indices. Finally, empirical formulae for estimating two measures of structural damage were developed for each hysteretic model.     

Hydrological and flood hazard assessment using a coupled modelling approach for a mountainous catchment in Portugal

Floods may lead to destruction of property, to damage to the environment and ultimately to loss of lives. Although it is not possible to avoid them, they are enhanced by human activities that increase the probability of occurrence of these natural events. Preliminary flood risk assessment and determination of areas of potential significant flood risk is mandatory according to the European Floods Directive (2007). In order to meet the established legislation, a methodology was developed that couples two modelling approaches: the Hydrological Simulation Program—FORTRAN (HSPF) and IBER. A target watershed, with complex orography and known to be vulnerable to flood hazards, is selected: the Vez River (northern Portugal). The performance of the HSPF model, driven by a climate gridded dataset, was assessed, followed by the reconstruction of the flow rate in the catchment for the period from 1950 to 2015. The results hint at an agreement between simulated and observed daily flow rates, with high coefficient of determination value and of the Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (> 0.7 daily timescale). A satisfactory performance was also found in reproducing flood peak events. An average deviation of 10% was found between observed and simulated flood peaks. The output of HSPF was subsequently used to drive IBER, thus determining flood hazard areas for a 10, 50 and 100-year return periods. The methodology presented here provides basic tools for decision-makers to evaluate hydrologic responses to climate data, namely the determination of flood hazard maps, but also risk assessment, water management, environmental protection and sustainability.     

Modeling effects of multinode wells on solute transport

Long-screen wells or long open boreholes with intraborehole flow potentially provide pathways for contaminants to move from one location to another in a ground water flow system. Such wells also can perturb a flow field so that the well will not provide water samples that are representative of ground water quality a short distance away from the well. A methodology is presented to accurately and efficiently simulate solute transport in ground water systems that include wells longer than the grid spacing used in a simulation model of the system and hence are connected to multiple nodes of the grid. The methods are implemented in a MODFLOW-compatible solute-transport model and use MODFLOW's Multi-Node Well Package but are generic and can be readily implemented in other solute-transport models. For nonpumping multinode wells (used to simulate open boreholes or observation wells, for example) and for low-rate pumping wells (in which the flow between the well and the ground water system is not unidirectional), a simple routing and local mixing model was developed to calculate nodal concentrations within the borehole. For high-rate pumping multinode wells (either withdrawal or injection, in which flow between the well and the ground water system is in the same direction at all well nodes), complete and instantaneous mixing in the wellbore of all inflows is assumed.     

A semi-analytical solution based on a numerical solution of the solute transport of a conservative and nonreactive tracer

In the evaluation of potential risk from ingestion of groundwater near an impacted site, numerical simulation of fate and transport processes of chemicals of concern is often required. If there is potential concern about multiple chemicals, numerical simulation of each chemical separately is often needed. In this paper, a semi-analytical solution is presented based on a numerical solution of the transport of a conservative and nonreactive tracer. When multiple chemicals undergoing sorption and first-order degradation need to be modeled, we can avoid performing individual numerical simulations for each chemical by applying the semi-analytical solution. Numerical test runs were conducted to verify the semi-analytical solution; simulation results reveal that the concentrations derived from the semi-analytical solution are identical to those derived from the individual numerical fate and transport model simulations. The semi-analytical solution requires steady-state flow conditions, no continuing contaminant source, and similar initial source concentration distributions.     

Hydrological modelling of a small watershed using generated rainfall in the soil and water assessment tool model

An adequately tested soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model was applied to the runoff and sediment yield of a small agricultural watershed in eastern India using generated rainfall. The capability of the model for generating rainfall was evaluated for a period of 18 years (1981–1998). The watershed and subwatershed boundaries, drainage networks, slope, soil series and texture maps were generated using a geographical information system (GIS). A supervised classification method was used for land‐use/cover classification from satellite imageries. Model simulated monthly rainfall for the period of 18 years was compared with observations. Simulated monthly rainfall, runoff and sediment yield values for the monsoon season of 8 years (1991–1998) were also compared with their observed values. In general monthly average rainfall predicted by the model was in close agreement with the observed monthly average values. Also, simulated monthly average values of surface runoff and sediment yield using generated rainfall compared well with observed values during the monsoon season of the years 1991–1998. Results of this study revealed that the SWAT model can generate monthly average rainfall satisfactorily and thereby can produce monthly average values of surface runoff and sediment yield close to the observed values. Therefore, it can be concluded that the SWAT model could be used for developing a multiple year management plan for the critical erosion prone areas of a small watershed. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.