四川瀑布沟水库区域地震活动性跟踪研究

以水库诱发地震危险性指标体系为基础,构建瀑布沟水库诱发地震危险性评价表;对库区地震活动性跟踪,发现库区地震活动强度和频度没有因水库蓄、放水而出现明显的变化,综合判定瀑布沟水库发生较大诱发地震的危险性不高。     

无井条件下建立碎屑岩储层地震地质模型研究

常规的储层建模以井数据为基础,建立孔隙度、渗透率和含油饱和度等储层属性参数模型,并通过油田开发生产数据进行拟合,得到最佳地质模型.在南海西北部深水区无井控制的情况下,针对中央峡谷浊积水道储层,采用确定性建模与连续型随机建模相结合的方法,建立碎屑岩储层地震地质模型,应用地震正演模拟和相似性分析方法,确定浊积水道砂体最佳模拟参数.文章首先分析了碎屑岩储层特征,应用连续型随机建模的方法模拟储层空间分布.然后分析实际地震、地质资料,应用层序地层学思想,对研究区划分沉积体系域,建立层序地层格架;基于波阻抗和多种地震属性,采用人机交互的方法对浊积水道储层框架结构进行精细解释,建立储层结构模型;将储层结构模型与砂泥互层随机介质进行"交"、"并"运算,利用连续型随机模拟方法对储层内部介质进行精细刻画,建立中央峡谷浊积水道随机介质储层模型;通过对模型正演模拟、常规处理和相似性分析等建立最佳储层模型.文章研究了在无井条件下建立储层地震地质模型的方法,揭示南海西北部深水区中央峡谷浊积水道储层的空间展布和内部结构特征.     

A non-reflecting boundary condition for the finite element modeling of infinite reservoir with layered sediment

The design of seismic resistant concrete gravity dam necessitates accurate determination of hydrodynamic pressure developed in the adjacent reservoir. The hydrodynamic pressure developed on structure is dependent on the physical characteristics of the boundaries surrounding the reservoir including reservoir bottom. The sedimentary material in the reservoir bottom absorbs energy at the bottom, which will affect the hydrodynamic pressure at the upstream face of the dam. The fundamental parameter characterizing the effect of absorption of hydrodynamic pressure waves at the reservoir bottom due to sediment is the reflection coefficient. The wave reflection coefficient is determined from parameters based on sediment layer thickness, its material properties and excitation frequencies. An analytical or a closed-form solution cannot account for the arbitrary geometry of the dam or reservoir bed profile. This problem can be efficiently tackled with finite element technique. The need for an accurate truncation boundary is felt to reduce the computational domain of the unbounded reservoir system. An efficient truncation boundary condition (TBC) which accounts for the reservoir bottom effect is proposed for the finite element analysis of infinite reservoir. The results show the efficiency of the proposed truncation boundary condition.     

基于聚类分析方法的砾岩油藏储层类型划分

砾岩油藏由于近物源、多水系和快速多变的沉积环境导致储层岩性复杂多变以及非均质性严重等特点,储层类型的精细划分成为该类油藏二次调整开发的重点和难点.本文以克拉玛依油田六中区克下组砾岩油藏为研究对象,选取密闭取心井岩心分析的物性参数、压汞驱替参数以及微观孔隙结构参数共计12项作为砾岩油藏储层类型划分的参数组合,对比研究了基于划分、基于层次、基于模型和基于密度的4种聚类算法建立的储层划分标准,结果表明基于划分的k-means算法建立的聚类标准最符合实际油藏的地质特征和储层类型的划分精度,内部度量的紧凑性、有效性和分辨性都优于其他三种算法,并且分析了Ⅴ类储层与岩性的对应关系,发现砾岩油藏储层类型受岩性控制的机制非常复杂,岩性相同的储层类型可能呈现出不同的物性和渗流性,而岩性不同的储层类型又可能表现为相同的物性和渗流性,其根本原因是储层非均质性造成的.储层类型与砾岩岩性的有效结合为该区精细开发方案的设计和水淹层的定量评价提供了技术支持.     

A non-traditional approach to the analysis of flood hazard for dams

The traditional and still prevailing approach to characterization of flood hazards to dams is the inflow design flood (IDF). The IDF, defined either deterministically or probabilistically, is necessary for sizing a dam, its discharge facilities and reservoir storage. However, within the dam safety risk informed decision framework, the IDF does not carry much relevance, no matter how accurately it is characterized. In many cases, the probability of the reservoir inflow tells us little about the probability of dam overtopping. Typically, the reservoir inflow and its associated probability of occurrence is modified by the interplay of a number of factors (reservoir storage, reservoir operating rules and various operational faults and natural disturbances) on its way to becoming the reservoir outflow and corresponding peak level—the two parameters that represent hydrologic hazard acting upon the dam. To properly manage flood risk, it is essential to change approach to flood hazard analysis for dam safety from the currently prevailing focus on reservoir inflows and instead focus on reservoir outflows and corresponding reservoir levels. To demonstrate these points, this paper presents stochastic simulation of floods on a cascade system of three dams and shows progression from exceedance probabilities of reservoir inflow to exceedance probabilities of peak reservoir level depending on initial reservoir level, storage availability, reservoir operating rules and availability of discharge facilities on demand. The results show that the dam overtopping is more likely to be caused by a combination of a smaller flood and a system component failure than by an extreme flood on its own.     

福建古田水口库区M_L4.8震群分析与水库诱发地震探讨

阐述了水口库区及邻近地区的地震地质构造特征和库区蓄水前后的地震活动变化特点。重点分析了水库蓄水以来发生的最大地震——古田ML4.8地震序列,并对库区地质与水文环境条件、诱发地震成因、机理等进行了研究。结果表明:水口库区地震与水库蓄水有直接关系,诱发地震震中主要集中在古田县水口镇湾口—前洋一带,范围约13km2。库区地震活动还将持续较长时间,且库区水位的升降与地震之间的相关性将越来越弱。最后对水口库区地震预测方法和最大震级进行了阐述。     

水库地震的综合概率增益预测法研究

在水库地震预测中首次引进了地震概率增益综合预测模型,叙述了该方法的基本原理;探讨了影响水库地震最大震级发生的因素;结合中国水库及其水库地震震例资料,对水库地震综合影响因素E值、库容、库水深度因素或指标预测水库地震最大震级的效能R值和经验概率增益K值进行了统计和评价,表明概率增益综合预测能够对各种预测方法预测水库地震的效果进行定量分析。在此基础上,选择国内外若干水库进行了水库地震最大震级回溯性检验,表明该方法作为一种新的水库地震最大震级预测方法是可行的     

水库诱发地震活动特征及其预测方法研究

根据国内外水库诱发地震的观测与研究震例,分析研究了一些著名水库诱发序列的地震活动特征,并根据水库诱发地震随水库蓄水时间的变化,把水库诱发地震活动归纳为迅速响应型、延迟响应型和混合响应型三类,分析讨论了这三类水库诱发地震活动在时间和空间分布上的不同特点,并在此基础上综合分析了水库诱发地震预测方法研究的技术途径.     

Quantitative integration of 3D and 4D seismic impedance into reservoir simulation model updating in the Norne Field

The ultimate goal of reservoir simulation in reservoir surveillance technology is to estimate long-term production forecasting and to plan development and management of petroleum fields. However, maintaining reliable reservoir models which honour available static and dynamic data, involve inherent risks due to the uncertainties in space and time of the distribution of hydrocarbons inside reservoirs. Recent applications have shown that these uncertainties can be reduced by quantitative integration of seismic data into the reservoir modelling workflows to identify which areas and reservoir attributes of the model should be updated. This work aims using seismic data to reduce ambiguity in calibrating reservoir flow simulation model with an uncertain petro-elastic model, proposing a circular workflow of inverted seismic impedance (3D and 4D) and engineering studies, with emphasis on the interface between static and dynamic models. The main contribution is to develop an updating procedure for adjusting reservoir simulation response before using it in the production forecasting and enhance the interpretive capability of reservoir properties. Accordingly, the workflow evaluates consistency of reservoir simulation model and inverted seismic impedance, assisted by production history data, to close the loop between reservoir engineering and seismic domains. The methodology is evaluated in a complex, faulted, sandstone reservoir, the Norne benchmark field, where a significant reservoir behaviour understanding (about the static and dynamic reservoir properties) is obtained towards the quantitative integration of seismic impedance data. This leads to diagnosis of the reservoir flow simulation reliability and generation of an updated simulation model consistent with observed seismic and well production history data, as well as a calibrated petro-elastic model. Furthermore, as Norne Field is a benchmark case, this study can be considered to enrich the discussions over deterministic or probabilistic history matching studies.     

A REVIEW OF RESERVOIR DESILTATION

I INTRODUCTIONThe number of dam constructions has increased during the last decades, pafticularly in the tropics andsemi-arid areas where high sediment yields are prominent, and therefore also the problems of reservoirsedimentation. In 1900 there were 42 large dams, i.e. higher than 15 m, while in 1950 and 1986 therewere 5,268 and about 39,000 respectively (ICOLD, 1988). In the period 1975 to 1990, the regions withthe largest increase of large dams were Central and South America, Asia …     

用模式识别方法估计水库诱发地震危险性

水库蓄水后可能诱发的地震危险性估计是工程地震工作中的一项重要环节,其中可能诱发的地震强度是人们特别关注的要素。本文基于国内外41个水库地震震例,从目前对水库地震形成机理的认识水平出发,提取了15个可能的诱震指标,应用模式识别的一些方法对水库蓄水后的诱发地震危险性进行复因子评估,通过内符检验讨论了这些方法在水库诱发地震危险性上的估计效能,给出了其错误概率估计值,结果表明,这些方法能够相对客观和合理地评定水库蓄水后可能诱发的地震危险性水平大小,在工程上具有一定应用价值。     

Experimental analysis of reservoir release wave routing in upland boulder bed rivers

Reservoir release wave routing during 33 controlled reservoir releases, along 15 upland boulder bed river channel reaches, on five different regulated rivers were monitored to assess the importance of river channel roughness and reservoir release magnitude on reservoir release wave speeds. Wave speeds varied between 0.52 and 3.01 m s^?1. Reservoir release wave translation, steepening, and attenuation occurred. With high channel roughness values reservoir release wave arrival speed is retarded in comparison to peak stage and wave steepening occurs, but with a reduction in channel roughness reservoir release wave front arrival is accelerated producing attentuation. The threshold between reservoir release wave front attenuation and steepening occurs at a pre-release discharge/channel width of approximately 0.1, an index of channel roughness. The paper also demonstrates, via comparison of observed and calculated reservoir release wave speeds on the River Washburn, Yorkshire, the difficulty of accurately predicting flood wave movement in upland boulder bed channels using existing prediction equations. The calculated values, however, revealed systematic error with pre-release discharge and reservoir release magnitude. Apparently the equations fail to account for the effects of high channel roughness together with pressure gradient forces, induced by rapid rates of stage change on the rising limb of reservoir releases. In order to accurately predict reservoir release wave movement in regulated rivers, this paper demonstrates that hydraulic studies need to be undertaken and pre-release discharges prescribed to determine desired reservoir release wave routing behaviour. Manipulation of the reservoir release pattern at the dam alone, cannot dictate reservoir release wave front form downstream or wave speed.     

Prediction of Water Temperature as Affected by a Pre‐Constructed Reservoir Project Based on MIKE11

Reservoir construction can lead to much more water stored in front of the dam and significantly increase heat storage capacity of the reservoir waters, thus resulting in different distribution pattern of water temperature in reservoir area compared to river. Especially for large reservoir, the obvious stratification of water temperature will appear in the reservoir with deeper water levels. Meanwhile, the low water temperature will be observed in the downstream river due to the operation of the reservoir. The vertical numerical simulation model for reservoir from MIKE 11 was used to predict the changes of water temperature of Wuxikou Reservoir to check the effects of the reservoir construction on water temperature. The water temperature prediction model was developed to simulate the water temperature of the reservoir and the discharged outflow water. The predicted results can contribute to assessing the feasibility of the pre‐constructed project based on the environmental influence of water temperature.     

电阻率成像技术在水库库底溶洞探测中的应用

利用电阻率层析成像技术,对辉县市常村镇尖圪头水库溶洞进行了探测。水库库底内的破碎、裂缝以及溶洞等隐患部位有清晰的反映。水库库底的隐患探测具有重要价值和意义,是水库安全的保障,而且关系到局部地区安全的大事。     

Determination of reservoir induced earthquake using support vector machine and gaussian process regression

The prediction of magnitude (M) of reservoir induced earthquake is an important task in earthquake engineering. In this article, we employ a Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) for prediction of reservoir induced earthquake M based on reservoir parameters. Comprehensive parameter (E) and maximum reservoir depth (H) are considered as inputs to the SVM and GPR. We give an equation for determination of reservoir induced earthquake M. The developed SVM and GPR have been compared with the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) method. The results show that the developed SVM and GPR are efficient tools for prediction of reservoir induced earthquake M.     

Integration of the life of field seismic data with the reservoir model at the Valhall Field‡

The frequent time‐lapse observations from the life of field seismic system across the Valhall field provide a wealth of information. The responses from the production and injection wells can be observed through time‐shift and amplitude changes. These observations can be compared to modelled synthetic seismic responses from a reservoir simulation model of the Valhall Field. The observed differences between the observations and the modelling are used to update and improve the history match of the reservoir model. The uncertainty of the resulting model is reduced and a more confident prediction of future reservoir performance is provided. A workflow is presented to convert the reservoir model to a synthetic seismic response and compare the results to the observed time‐lapse responses for any time range and area of interest. Correlation based match quality factors are calculated to quantify the visual differences. This match quality factor allows us to quantitatively compare alternative reservoir models to help identify the parameters that best match the seismic observations. Three different case studies are shown where this workflow has helped to reduce the uncertainty range associated with specific reservoir parameters. By updating various reservoir model parameters we have been able to improve the match to the observations and thereby improve the overall reservoir model predictability. The examples show positive results in a range of different reservoir modelling issues, which indicates the flexibility of this workflow and the ability to have an impact in most reservoir modelling challenges.     

龙滩库区库水加卸载过程深部电阻率变化与水库地震

广西龙滩库区于2009年度至2010年2个年度库水加卸载及渗透过程中,在交比屯、坪上、中良坪和向阳4个地点进行了5期次大地电磁定点测量,观测频段为320 Hz~1000 s.结合区域深部电性结构探测研究成果分析.结果显示,4个测点位于不同的岩性和深部电性结构区域,4个测点上观测的5期次视电阻率值发生变化的频段不同,位于库区中游的坪上、中良坪和向阳3个测点上5期次测量的视电阻率数值在频率1 Hz以下频段在高水位时段测量值小、在低水位时段测量值大,位于库首区域的交比屯测点在最高水位时段视电阻率数值最小,说明库水在加卸载及渗透过程中对地下介质有明显影响,库区上游库水渗透影响深度可达7 km左右,在坝首区域可达10 km.龙滩水库区4个地震丛集区中的3个地震丛集区的震源区位于具有低阻特性的二迭系下统和石炭系地层的下部,以岩溶水体诱发地震为主;位于坝首地震丛集区的震源区位于上宽下窄似"铆钉状"的高阻体下部,推测是因水库蓄水后水体压力增大和库水渗透作用下,在聚集高变形能的脆性高电阻体内部发生的地震.电磁探测结果说明库水渗透对龙滩水库区地震孕育和发生起着重要、直接的作用.     

油气储层随机模拟方法综述

油气储层随机模拟方法是近年来新发展起来的一门油气预测技术,它在综合了地质、地球物理信息的基础上充分利用了已知点的储层信息,根据所要预测的储层属性的来选择不同的随机模型,其最终模拟结果可以有任意多个供油藏描述选择．文章简要介绍了目前比较常用的储层属性随机模拟方法、原理以及各方法的优缺点、适用情况、今后的发展趋势．     

Probabilistic reservoir operation using Bayesian stochastic model and support vector machine

Available water resources are often not sufficient or too polluted to satisfy the needs of all water users. Therefore, allocating water to meet water demands with better quality is a major challenge in reservoir operation. In this paper, a methodology to develop operating strategies for water release from a reservoir with acceptable quality and quantity is presented. The proposed model includes a genetic algorithm (GA)-based optimization model linked with a reservoir water quality simulation model. The objective function of the optimization model is based on the Nash bargaining theory to maximize the reliability of supplying the downstream demands with acceptable quality, maintaining a high reservoir storage level, and preventing quality degradation of the reservoir. In order to reduce the run time of the GA-based optimization model, the main optimization model is divided into a stochastic and a deterministic optimization model for reservoir operation considering water quality issues.The operating policies resulted from the reservoir operation model with the water quantity objective are used to determine the released water ranges (permissible lower and upper bounds of release policies) during the planning horizon. Then, certain values of release and the optimal releases from each reservoir outlet are determined utilizing the optimization model with water quality objectives. The support vector machine (SVM) model is used to generate the operating rules for the selective withdrawal from the reservoir for real-time operation. The results show that the SVM model can be effectively used in determining water release from the reservoir. Finally, the copula function was used to estimate the joint probability of supplying the water demand with desirable quality as an evaluation index of the system reliability. The proposed method was applied to the Satarkhan reservoir in the north-western part of Iran. The results of the proposed models are compared with the alternative models. The results show that the proposed models could be used as effective tools in reservoir operation.     

1999-2015年汛后小浪底水库典型支流口门淤积发展影响分析

支流作为水库综合效益发挥的重要组成部分,其河口泥沙大幅淤积会影响水库综合效益的发挥.选取多沙河流水库黄河小浪底库区畛水、石井两支流作为典型实例,在对1999-2015年汛后水库的来水来沙、水库调度、库区干支流淤积量与形态分析基础上,研究干支流淤积形态的变化,重点研究支流口门拦门沙坎抬升变化特征,结果表明：支流的分流及淤积与入库流量、含沙量及库区的淤积形态有关.入库流量越大,支流分流比小,支流淤积规模小;入库含沙量越大,支流分沙比越大,支流淤积规模越大.