The responses of hydrological processes and sediment yield to land‐use and climate change in the Be River Catchment,Vietnam

In this study, we investigated the responses of hydrology and sediment yield with impacts of land‐use and climate change scenarios in the Be River Catchment, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. The calibration and validation results indicated that the SWAT model is a powerful tool for simulating the impact of environmental change on hydrology and sediment yield in this catchment. The hydrologic and sediment yield responses to land‐use and climate changes were simulated based on the calibrated model. The results indicated that a 16.3% decrease in forest land is likely to increase streamflow (0.2 to 0.4%), sediment load (1.8 to 3.0%), and surface runoff (SURQ) (4.8 to 10.7%) and to decrease groundwater discharge (GW_Q) (3.5 to 7.9%). Climate change in the catchment leads to decreases in streamflow (0.7 to 6.9%) and GW_Q (3.0 to 8.4%), increase in evapotranspiration (0.5 to 2.9%), and changes in SURQ (?5.3 to 2.3%) and sediment load (?5.3 to 4.4%). The combined impacts of land‐use and climate changes decrease streamflow (2.0 to 3.9%) and GW_Q (12.3 to 14.0%), increase evapotranspiration (0.7 to 2.8%), SURQ (8.2 to 12.4%), and sediment load (2.0 to 7.9%). In general, the separate impacts of climate and land‐use changes on streamflow, sediment load, and water balance components are offset each other. However, SURQ and some component of subsurface flow are more sensitive to land‐use change than to climate change. Furthermore, the results emphasized water scarcity during the dry season and increased soil erosion during the wet season. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Deviation Analysis on Willingness and Behavior of Residents' Earthquake Insurance Purchasing?Based on Logit Model

为真实了解和深入研究居民地震保险购买意愿与行为的背离现象及其形成机制,以全国不同省份居民作为研究对象,开展专项问卷调查,并采用Logit模型进行回归分析,提出提升居民购买地震保险意愿并付诸行动的相关建议。研究结果表明,居民对地震断裂带的判断属于地震风险感知变量,对投保意愿和购买行为均产生显著的正向影响;是否购买其他保险和是否通过网络捐款属于普通风险感知变量,对投保意愿产生显著的正向影响,对购买行为产生正向影响但不显著;地震风险感知变量既可增强居民的投保意愿,又可促使居民付诸实际购买行动;普通风险感知变量虽能增强居民的投保意愿,但对购买行为无效力,使投保意愿和购买行为表现出一定程度的背离。     

Data use and information creation: challenges for marine scientists and for managers

In the coastal waters of European countries and in the offshore waters of the north-east Atlantic, there is an increasing need for scientists to meet challenging objectives, such as to identify meaningful measures of 'quality', and to recommend 'indicators' to underpin implementation of directives, conventions, statutes and other more informal national and international initiatives. Those indicators may relate to particular species or habitats, to changes in physical and chemical characteristics, and even to the use to which the system is put. The problems to be overcome are difficult, but new and developing approaches will make a significant contribution. The approaches include: criteria to identify 'sensitivity' and 'importance', structures to organise information and electronic information resources to access data.The real challenge is to make the results of the various scientific initiatives relevant to and understandable by a wide range of customers with similar overlapping requirements, and thus make a genuine contribution to protecting the marine environment. Above and beyond that is the need for scientists to drive the agenda to enable real and lasting progress to be made towards ecosystem-based management of our seas and a proper consideration of what 'sustainability' may mean in the marine environment and how we utilise its resources.     

Development of an Information and Database System for the IERS: Status and outlook

The focus of this paper is to present the concepts for a new dynamic, i.e. database-driven information system for the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS). Its goal is to coordinate the data and information flow between the participating institutions. Therefore, all relevant data and products of the IERS should be archived to guarantee their long-term availability. At the same time the consistency and timeliness of the contents of the information system can be guaranteed by managing the information in a database. Additionally, the metadata of all products (including the IERS publications) should be modelled in a database to allow the users to search for specific data or topics with respect to space, time and content. In order to be able to link related data the heterogeneous formats of the products have to be transformed into a common format. The eXtensible Markup Language (XML) is going to be used, to perform this ambitious task. The usage of XML not only allows to link related data but also to easily exchange data and to present them in different ways like Web pages, pdf, etc. The system will be completed by several tools to manage and coordinate the tasks of the Central Bureau (CB) and by an information system with respect to IERS-related topics. The standardised database tools will also allow an easy exchange of information with and links to other databases within the IGGOS project to realize a powerful instrument to serve the Earth observing system.     

地震前兆数据库系统共享接口设计与实现

为解决分析预报等相关专业软件访问前兆数据库时存在的性能与安全问题,本文设计了地震前兆数据库系统共享接口软件。该软件可以隔离数据库与应用程序,对应用程序的数据使用情况进行审计与控制,切断非法、低效的数据访问请求;同时,使用连接池、数据缓存和数据压缩等技术提高前兆数据的访问速度。软件无需安装Oracle客户端,易于使用,屏蔽了数据库表结构的复杂性。     

一种适用于大地震临震预测的地声监测系统

介绍了震前地声的历史记载以及震前地声的产生机制和特征．还有如何利用震前地声观测结果对地震发震的三要素进行预测。并针对震前地声监测所存在的问题、困难和发展趋势,提出了一种适用于大地震临震预测的地声监测系统,该系统可详尽、完整地记录震前地声的强度、频度、频谱,并可通过在地震易发区域的大规模密集布点,组成这一区域的震前地声监测网络,以监测大地震孕育过程,以及对大地震的三要素进行预测预报。     

高频GNSS实时地震学与地震预警研究现状

为实现从注重灾后救助向注重灾前预防转变,如何提高地震灾害监测预警和风险防范能力成为我们关注的重点.本文给出了国际上GNSS位移记录、强震动加速度记录、测震速度记录在地震预警中的应用现状,并总结了各自的特点,归纳出围绕高频GNSS地震学在震级与破裂过程实时反演中的几个需要进一步研究的关键问题：（1）引入北斗系统,基于高频GNSS（GPS/BDS）双系统的实时位移解算方法来提高实时单站位移解算精度,使实时解算精度达到厘米级;（2）开展强震仪加速度记录基线偏移校正研究,弥补地震近场GNSS站密度不足问题;（3）强震仪加速度记录与GNSS位移记录特点不同,开展强震仪加速度数据与GNSS位移数据实时融合处理研究,快速获得包含丰富地震形变和速率的波形数据;（4）测震学方法可快速估算震级,但是在强震发生时会出现震级饱和现象,造成震级估算偏低.需要开展基于GNSS位移时间序列的多种方法相结合的实时震级估算方法研究,通过与地震学方法比较和结合,来得到精度高、计算快的震级估值算法;（5）基于高频GNSS、断层初始模型快速选取、断层尺度、参数自适应调整是快速判断断层破裂方向的基础,在断层破裂过程自适应准实时反演算法方面需要进一步加强.通过国内外研究现状调研、分析,表明基于高频GNSS地震学的震级快速确定、震源破裂过程准实时反演算法的发展将对我国地震预警系统从"二网融合"到"三网融合"提供坚实的技术支撑.     

我国科学数据共享现状的调查

本文是科学数据共享政策法规体系研究系列文章的收笔之作.撰写本文的目的,就是为说明科学数据共享政策法规体系的研究是建立在大量的基础调研之上.调查研究是谋事之基、成事之道.从实践中寻求解决现实问题的方法,才能制定出切实可行的政策、法规,调查研究是制定政策、法规的客观依据.为使制订政策、 规章制度适应社会经济发展和变化的新情况,就深入开展调查研究,认真听取各方面的意见,深入研究相应的管理规律和运行机制.本文详述了调查过程、调查方法,以佐证政策法规研究不能脱离实际.     

基于分形特征的剖面分割方法探索

本文针对石油工程中地震剖面图象的分割,采用分形理论进行自相似特性的确定,计算和描述出作为分割依据的盒维数,并据此设计和实现了图象的分割,给出了实例。     

坑（井）-地电阻率成像技术数据处理方法研究

开发坑（井）一地电阻率成像技术数据处理软件包,对分布式地面一坑道电磁信号接收仪记录的时间序列进行分析处理,最终得到相应的视电阻率和相位参数。实际资料处理结果表明,在远区情况下,需考虑信噪比水平,选择合适的计算方法。当信噪比很低或较高时,可选择根据卡尼亚电阻率定义式直接比值的方法,该方法计算简便、效率高;当信噪比一般时,采用最小二乘或Robust等估算方法,能在一定程度上改善数据处理质量。     

Design of efficient base isolation for hammers and presses

Foundations supporting hammers and presses have to withstand powerful short-period impact loads. When designing these foundations, their vibration amplitudes and the forces transmitted to the supporting piles or soil medium must be reduced to meet serviceability and stability requirements. Mounting systems are often used to achieve this goal. The objectives of this paper are to investigate the efficiency of mounting systems for different foundation configurations and to provide practical guidance for their design. A comprehensive parametric study was conducted and the results were used to establish a set of charts for the design of efficient mounting systems.     

Detecting infiltration and impacts of introduced water using strontium isotopes

Water introduced to surface drainages, such as agricultural and roadway runoff, mine drainage, or coalbed natural gas (CBNG)-produced water, potentially can be of environmental concern. In order to mitigate potential environmental effects, it may be important to be able to trace water discharged to the surface as it infiltrates and interacts with near-surface aquifers. We have chosen to study water withdrawn during CBNG production for isotope tracing in the hyporheic zone because it poses a variety of economic, environmental, and policy issues in the Rocky Mountain states. Ground water quality must be protected as CBNG water is added to semiarid ecosystems. Strontium (Sr) isotopes are effective fingerprints of the aquifer from which water originates. In this study, CBNG water was found to have a higher (87)Sr/(86)Sr ratio than the local alluvial aquifer water. This measurable difference allows the strontium isotope ratio and concentration to be used as tracers of CBNG water following its discharge to the surface. The dissolution and mobilization of salts from soil are an important contributor to ground water quality degradation. In the Powder River basin of Wyoming, the soils are calcium carbonate-buffered systems. The chemical similarity of strontium to calcium allows it to substitute into calcium minerals and enabled us to use strontium isotopes to identify calcium salts mobilized from the soil. Strontium isotopes are an effective monitor of the source of ions and the volume and direction of introduced water flow in the hyporheic zone.     

长白山天池火山减灾对策初探

国内外专家学者认为，长白山天池火山是一座具潜在灾害性喷发危险的活火山，因此制定火山减灾对策理应提到议事日程。针对天池火山研究现状和火山灾害特点，制定了火山活动各阶段的减灾对策。中长期阶段应加强火山监测与研究和火山知识宣传工作，采取必要的工程防护措施，重大工程进行火山安全性评价，制定火山喷发应急预案；短期阶段请求国际火山流动监测台网给予支援；临近喷发阶段重点是有组织的撤离；喷发及其后阶段应及时救灾抢险，对火山喷发趋势进行科学判定，合理地重建家园。     

普通民众认知与响应汶川M_S8.0地震特征分析——以陕西勉县为例

为进一步了解普通民众对汶川MS8.0地震灾害的认知与响应程度,并为政府防震减灾战略的制定和实施提供科学依据,根据地震灾害认知与响应结构体系设计了普通民众地震灾害认知与响应调查问卷,主要指标体系包括地震灾害知识、防震减灾技能、自救互救和震后信息传播等4个方面。基于权重和赋分,构建了指标体系各部分评价模型和地震灾害认知与响应总体评价模型,以此来计算普通民众地震灾害认知与响应的综合得分。测评结果表明:1)勉县灾区民众认知与响应地震灾害的综合水平与能力均处于不及格水平;2)在认知与响应地震灾害方面,民众的防震减灾技能最差,对地震灾害知识的了解水平次之,而震时及震后自救互救与震后信息传播2个层面稍好一些;3)普通民众对地震知识和观点的理解还停留在表面现象上,对复杂、抽象的地震知识的理解和掌握,特别是对地震知识掌握的准确性和深层次理解还有待于进一步提高;4)从震后民众获取地震灾害信息的主渠道来看,加大政府关于地震灾害知识和防灾技能的宣传力度以及使地震信息公开透明化是降低地震灾害风险的有效途径之一     

Integrated assessment for establishing an oil environmental vulnerability map: Case study for the Santos Basin region,Brazil

The growth of maritime transport and oil exploitation activities may increase the risk of oil spills. Thus, plans and actions to prevent or mitigate impacts are needed to minimize the effects caused by oil. However, tools used worldwide to support contingency plans have not been integrated, thus leading to failure in establishing priority areas. This investigation aimed to develop indices of environmental vulnerability to oil (IEVO), by combining information about environmental sensibility to oil and results of numerical modeling of spilled oil. To achieve that, a case study concerning to oil spills scenarios in a subtropical coastal area was designed, and IEVOs were calculated and presented in maps, in order to make the information about the areas’ vulnerability more easily visualized. For summer, the extension of coastline potentially affected by oil was approximately 150 km, and most of the coastline presented medium to high vulnerability. For winter, 230 km coastline would be affected, from which 75% were classified as medium to high vulnerability. Thus, IEVO maps allowed a rapid and clearer interpretation of the vulnerability of the mapped region, facilitating the planning process and the actions in response to an oil spill.     

A Least-Squares Standard Deviation Method to Interpret Gravity Data due to Finite Vertical Cylinders and Sheets

We have developed a least-squares approach to determine simultaneously the depth to both the top and base of a buried finite vertical cylinder (vertical line element approximation) and a 2-D vertical thin sheet from moving average residual anomaly profiles obtained from gravity data using filters of successive window lengths. The method involves using a relationship between the depth to the top, and base of the source and a combination of windowed observations. The method is based on computing the standard deviation of the depths to the top, determined from all moving average residual anomalies for each value of the depth to the base. The standard deviation may generally be considered a criterion for determining the correct depth to the top and base of the buried structure. When the correct depth to the base value is used, the standard deviation of the depths to the top is less than the standard deviation using incorrect values of the depth to the base. This method can be applied to residuals as well as to the observed gravity data. The method is applied to synthetic examples with and without random errors and tested on two field examples from the USA and Canada.     

地震空区的定量判据

在中国，孕震空间已经比较广泛地应用于地震预报的实践，并多次取得实际预测强震的效果。但经过系统震例研究发现，利用孕震空间预报地震的虚报漏报率比较高。本文运用解决临界相变问题的重正化群方法所求出的孕震空间区可能发生失稳破裂，导致强震发生的判据对孕震空间的危险性作出进一步鉴别，并用突变论方法求解尖拐空变方程，预测孕震空区未来发生强震的时间和震级，并进一步确定孕震空区的危险性。对２６个中国大陆强有的孕震空     

弹性波阻抗在时移地震中的应用分析

常规声波波阻抗由于缺乏横波的信息,使得它对于流体的变化很不敏感,而弹性波阻抗反演,除了与纵波速度,密度有关之外,还与横波速度、入射角度有关,由于考虑了AVO(Amplitude Variation with Offset)效应,使得对流体和岩性的预测能力增强.本文将弹性波阻抗反演应用于时移地震中,采用AVA(Amplitude Variation with Angle)约束稀疏脉冲反演来进行弹性波阻抗反演,得到纵横波阻抗等弹性参数,通过交会图分析,将弹性参数转换为油藏参数,如预测含水饱和度的变化,通过本方法可增强对储层流体的预测,提高储层管理能力.     

塔里木盆地地球动力学演化与含油气系统旋回

论述了塔里木盆地的地球动力学演化过程,指出震旦-三叠纪和侏罗-第四纪是两个构造巨旋回．在这类旋回中,盆地经历了由伸展到聚敛的完整发育过程塔里木盆地的演化总体上表现为强伸展-聚敛-微伸展-强聚敛的特点盆地动力学旋回决定了油气的生运聚散过程．提出含油气系统旋口的概念．在分析寒武-奥陶系含油气系统旋回、石炭系-下二叠统含油气系统旋回和侏罗系含油气系统旋回的基础上,指出对含油气系统旋回的形成期与调整再分配期的研究更具实际意义．     

Seasonal variations in coastal debris on Awaji Island, Japan

The subject of our study was Awaji Island, an island located in the west of Japan that is surrounded by sea and that has serious problems relating to coastal debris. We conducted a long-term investigation focusing on three beaches and evaluated the results. The study was designed to develop an understanding of the actual situation, to inform local citizens, and raise their concerns about the problem of debris with a view to taking action against it. We obtained the following results: the amount, type, and ratio of debris changed according to weather and ocean conditions; debris also differs according to geographical conditions; social and economic activities of the surrounding area influence the type of debris encountered. Following this study, we have continued our investigation, and are continuing to gather data. At the same time, it is important to spread our ideas and enlighten people so as to encourage them not to dump debris. We hope that these actions manage to raise the level of consciousness among local citizens and to expand their anti-debris activities.