Features and Factors of Hydrological and Morphological Changes in the Agrakhan Bay at the Mouth of the Terek River in the 20th–Early 21st Centuries

Water Resources - The Agrakhan Bay of the Caspian Sea is a unique hydrographic and environmentally valuable object at the mouth of the Terek River. At the beginning of the 20th century, it was a...     

Stress Release and Source Scaling of the 2010–2011 Canterbury,New Zealand Earthquake Sequence from Spectral Inversion of Ground Motion Data

The Canterbury earthquake sequence beginning with the 2010 M _W 7.2 Darfield earthquake is one of the most notable and well-recorded crustal earthquake sequences in a low-strain-rate region worldwide and as such provides a unique opportunity to better understand earthquake source physics and ground motion generation in such a tectonic setting. Ground motions during this sequence ranged up to extreme values of 2.2 g, recorded during the February 2011 M _W 6.2 event beneath the city of Christchurch. A better understanding of the seismic source signature of this sequence, in particular the stress release and its scaling with earthquake size, is crucial for future ground motion prediction and hazard assessment in Canterbury, but also of high interest for other low-to-moderate seismicity regions where high-quality records of large earthquakes are lacking. Here we present a source parameter study of more than 200 events of the Canterbury sequence, covering the magnitude range M _W 3–7.2. Source spectra were derived using a generalized spectral inversion technique and found to be well characterized by the ω ^?2 source model. We find that stress drops range between 1 and 20 MPa with a median value of 5 MPa, which is a factor of 5 larger than the median stress drop previously estimated with the same method for crustal earthquakes in much more seismically active Japan. Stress drop scaling with earthquake size is nearly self-similar, and we identify lateral variations throughout Canterbury, in particular high stress drops at the fault edges of the two major events, the M _W 7.2 Darfield and M _W 6.2 Christchurch earthquakes.     

Local Seismic Events in the Area of Poland Based on Data from the PASSEQ 2006–2008 Experiment

PASSEQ 2006–2008 (Passive Seismic Experiment in TESZ; Wilde-Piórko et al. 2008) was the biggest passive seismic experiment carried out so far in the area of Central Europe (Poland, Germany, the Czech Republic and Lithuania). 196 seismic stations (including 49 broadband seismometers) worked simultaneously for over two years. During the experiment, multiple types of data recorders and seismometers were used, making the analysis more complex and time consuming. The dataset was unified and repaired to start the detection of local seismic events. Two different approaches for detection were applied for stations located in Poland. The first one used standard STA/LTA triggers (Carl Johnson’s STA/LTA algorithm) and grid search to classify and locate the events. The result was manually verified. The second approach used Real Time Recurrent Network (RTRN) detection (Wiszniowski et al. 2014). Both methods gave similar results, showing four previously unknown seismic events located in the Gulf of Gdańsk area, situated in the southern Baltic Sea. In this paper we discuss both detection methods with their pros and cons (accuracy, efficiency, manual work required, scalability). We also show details of all detected and previously unknown events in the discussed area.     

Inversion of the Strain Accumulation State in Crustal Interior from Observations of Earth Tide Tilts

The strain accumulation state in crustal interior and its migration trend can be inverted from observational data of earth tide tilts.In China,large earthquakes frequently occur in the border area between Yunnan and Sichuan Provinces.Using the observational data for years from 7 stations in this area,γ(the amplitude factor of earth tide tilts)values that characterize the strain accumulation state in crustal interior have been inverted in this paper.It has been found out that,Ms>5 events in the area often occur when γreaches an anomaly value.Using the time-space collocational stereomodelling the migration trend of strain accumulation can be determined to make a prediction for the probable location of a forthcoming earthquake in the area.     

Latitudinal Profiles of the Photospheric Magnetic Field in Solar Cycles 19–21

For various groups of photospheric magnetic fields differing in strength, averaged synoptic maps have been obtained from the data of the Kitt Peak National Solar Observatory (1976–2003). The latitudinal profiles of magnetic field fluxes are considered individually for each 5-G field strength interval. Changes in the maxima of the latitude profiles and their localization in the latitude are studied. The results are evidence that the latitudinal distribution of the magnetic fields changes significantly at field strengths of 5, 15, and 50 G. The magnetic flux for groups of fields differing in strength decreases monotonically as the strength increases, starting from B > 5 G; the fluxes of the southern hemisphere exceed those of the northern hemisphere. A very special group is formed by the weakest fields with B < 5 G, which are opposite in phase to stronger fields in terms of localization and time changes.     

Causes of the Regional Variability in Observed Sea Level,Sea Surface Temperature and Ocean Colour Over the Period 1993–2011

We analyse the regional variability in observed sea surface height (SSH), sea surface temperature (SST) and ocean colour (OC) from the ESA Climate Change Initiative datasets over the period 1993–2011. The analysis focuses on the signature of the ocean large-scale climate fluctuations driven by the atmospheric forcing and do not address the mesoscale variability. We use the ECCO version 4 ocean reanalysis to unravel the role of ocean transport and surface buoyancy fluxes in the observed SSH, SST and OC variability. We show that the SSH regional variability is dominated by the steric effect (except at high latitude) and is mainly shaped by ocean heat transport divergences with some contributions from the surface heat fluxes forcing that can be significant regionally (confirming earlier results). This is in contrast with the SST regional variability, which is the result of the compensation of surface heat fluxes by ocean heat transport in the mixed layer and arises from small departures around this background balance. Bringing together the results of SSH and SST analyses, we show that SSH and SST bear some common variability. This is because both SSH and SST variability show significant contributions from the surface heat fluxes forcing. It is evidenced by the high correlation between SST and buoyancy-forced SSH almost everywhere in the ocean except at high latitude. OC, which is determined by phytoplankton biomass, is governed by the availability of light and nutrients that essentially depend on climate fluctuations. For this reason, OC shows significant correlation with SST and SSH. We show that the correlation with SST displays the same pattern as the correlation with SSH with a negative correlation in the tropics and subtropics and a positive correlation at high latitude. We discuss the reasons for this pattern.     

Inversion of breakout data from inclined boreholes for stress state of the upper crust in Jizhong depression

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Determination of Q β(f) in Different Parts of Kumaon Himalaya from the Inversion of Spectral Acceleration Data

This paper presents the results of a modified two-step inversion algorithm approach to find S wave quality factor Q _β(f) given by Joshi (Bull Seis Soc Am 96:2165–2180, 2006). Seismic moment is calculated from the source displacement spectra of the S wave using both horizontal components. Average value of seismic moment computed from two horizontal components recorded at several stations is used as an input to the first part of inversion together with the spectra of S phase in the acceleration record. Several values of the corner frequency have been selected iteratively and are used as inputs to the inversion algorithm. Solution corresponding to minimum root mean square error (RMSE) is used for obtaining the final estimate of Q _β(f) relation. The estimates of seismic moment, corner frequency and Q _β(f) from the first part of inversion are further used for obtaining the residual of theoretical and observed source spectra which are treated as site amplification terms. The acceleration record corrected for the site amplification term is used for determination of seismic moment from source spectra by using Q _β(f) obtained from first part of inversion. Corrected acceleration record and new estimate of seismic moment are used as inputs to the second part of the inversion scheme which is similar to the first part except for use of input data. The final outcome from this part of inversion is a new Q _β(f) relation together with known values of seismic moment and corner frequency of each input. The process of two-step inversion is repeated for this new estimate of seismic moment and goes on until minimum RMSE is obtained which gives final estimate of Q _β(f) at each station and corner frequency of input events. The Pithoragarh district in the state of Uttarakhand in India lies in the border region of India and Nepal and is part of the seismically active Kumaon Himalaya zone. A network of eight strong motion recorders has been installed in this region since March, 2006. In this study we have analyzed data from 18 local events recorded between March, 2006 and October, 2010 at various stations. These events have been located using HYPO71 and data has been used to obtain frequency-dependent shear-wave attenuation. The Q _β(f) at each station is calculated by using both the north-south (NS) and east-west (EW) components of acceleration records as inputs to the developed inversion algorithm. The average Q _β(f) values obtained from Q _β(f) values at different stations from both NS and EW components have been used to compute a regional average relationship for the Pithoragarh region of Kumaon Himalaya of form Q _β(f)?=?(29?±?1.2)f ^{(1.1 ± 0.06)}.     

Studying the Experience of Solving Water Supply Problems in the Medieval Crimea (Sudak XIV–XV Centuries)

Water Resources - Archeological and geological data on solving the problems of water supply and water use in the medieval Sougdeia (Sudak Town in the XIV–XV centuries) are generalized and...     

Annual Beech (Fagus sylvatica) Growth Rings and Solar-Related Climate Variations in the Central and Western Balkans in the 18th–21st Centuries

Geomagnetism and Aeronomy - Abstract—This work analyzes a time series of annual growth ring widths for beech trees (Fagus sylvatica) in the western and central Balkans (Stara Planina,...     

Ecological–Geochemical Conditions of Surface Water and Groundwater and Estimation of the Anthropogenic Effect in the Basin of the Ganjiang River

Water Resources - Data of studies of 2013–2019 were used to assess the current environmental-geochemical conditions of surface water and groundwater in the basin of the Ganjiang River, the...     

Possible Solar Modulation of Average Temperature in the Contiguous United States during 1895–2018

Geomagnetism and Aeronomy - With monthly average temperature series in the contiguous United States during the period from January 1895 to July 2018, the author uses wavelet analysis to investigate...     

Global aridification in the second half of the 20th century and its relationship to large-scale climate background

The variation in surface wetness index (SWI), which was derived from global gridded monthly precipi- tation and monthly mean surface air temperature datasets of Climatic Research Unit (CRU), from 1951― 2002 over global land was analyzed in this paper. The characteristics of the SWI variation in global continents, such as North America, South America, Eurasia, Africa, and Australia, were compared. In addition, the correlation between the SWI variation of each continent (or across the globe) and the large-scale background closely related to SST variations, which affects climate change, was analyzed. The results indicate that the SWI variation shows distinct regional characteristics in the second half of the 20th century under global warming. A drying trend in the last 52 years occurred in Africa, Eurasia, Australia and South America, most obviously in Africa and Eurasia. North America shows a wetting trend after 1976. A 30-year period of dry-wet oscillation is found in South America and Australia; the latest is in a drying period in two regions. The results also revealed that global warming has changed the dry-wet pattern of the global land. South America and Australia have a drying trend despite in- creases in precipitation. This indicates that increases in surface air temperature cannot be ignored in aridification studies. Global dry-wet variation is closely related to large-scale SST variations: the drying trend in Africa and Eurasia and the wetting trend in North America are correlated with Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO); the interdecadal oscillation of SWI in South America and Australia is consistent with the interdecadal variation in Southern Oscillation Index (SOI).     

Characteristic Features of Solar Cosmic Rays in the 21st–24th Solar-Activity Cycles According to Data from Catalogs of Solar Proton Events

Geomagnetism and Aeronomy - Homogeneous series of solar cosmic-ray events for four solar-activity cycles against the background of decreased activity in cycles 23 and 24 are considered. The number...     

An Upper Limit to Ground Deformation in the Island of Tenerife, Canary Islands, for the Period 1997–2006

Continuous monitoring of ground deformation in the volcanic island of Tenerife, Canary Islands, is based on GPS networks, since there are as yet no tiltmeter stations installed on the island. However, there is a world-class astronomical observatory on the island, the El Teide Observatory, where four tiltmeters, two aligned in the North-South and the other two in the East-West, are monitoring the movements of the solar telescope THEMIS. THEMIS (Heliographic Telescope for the Study of Solar Magnetism and Instabilites) is among the three largest solar telescopes in the world. Since THEMIS is located a few kilometers from the main volcanic structures of the island, in particular the El Teide-Pico Viejo stratovolcano, and the precision of the inclinometers is comparable to those used in geophysical studies, we carried out the analysis of the tilt measurements for the period 1997–2006. The tiltmeters at THEMIS are placed in the seventh floor of a tower, hence their sensitivity to geological processes is reduced compared to geophysical installations. However, THEMIS measurements are the only terrestrial data available in Tenerife for such a long period of observations, which include the sustained increase in seismic activity that started in 2001. In this sense, a significant change was found in the East-West tilt of approximately 35 μ-radians between the years 2000 and 2002. Some theoretical models were calculated and it was concluded that such tilt variation could not be due to dike intrusions, nor a volcanic reactivation below the El Teide-Pico Viejo volcano. The most likely explanation comes from dislocations produced by a secondary fault associated to a major submarine fault off the eastern coast of Tenerife. In any case, taking into account the nearly permanent data recording at THEMIS, they could be considered as a complement for any ground deformation monitoring system in the island.     

Worst-Case GPS Scintillations on the Ground Estimated from Radio Occultation Observations of FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC During 2007–2014

The FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC (F3/C) satellite probes the S4 scintillation index profile of GPS signals by using the radio occultation (RO) technique. In this study, for practical use on the Earth’s surface, a method is developed to convert and integrate the probed RO S4 index, so obtaining the scintillation on the ground. To estimate the worst case, the maximum value on each profile probed by F3/C, which is termed S4max, is isolated. The isolated data are further used to construct the global three-dimensional distributions of S4max for various local times, seasons, solar activities, and locations. The converted S4max for the first time estimates the global distribution of ionospheric scintillations in the GPS L1 band C/A code signal on the ground. The results show that the worst-case scintillations appear within the low-latitude region of ±30°N, peaking around ±20°N magnetic latitude; they begin at 1900 MLT, reach their maximum at 2100 MLT, and vanish by about 0200–0300 MLT. The most pronounced low-latitude scintillation occurs over the South American and African sectors.     

Long-term solar wind variations in the 20th–23rd solar activity cycles according to radio-astronomical data

We analyzed the variations of the interplanetary plasma parameters, obtained from radio astronomical observations of scintillations of cosmic radio sources during four 11-year cycles of solar activity, from 1966 to present. It is shown that the state of the interplanetary plasma permanently changes in conformity with cyclicity in the solar activity. In the studied time period, besides the 11-year variations in the velocity and scintillation index, there is also an increasing linear trend of these variables, which is presumably due to a secular 80–90-year cycle of solar activity. The observed differences between the 11-year variations and trends in the solar wind velocity and interplanetary scintillation index suggest that the 11-year and secular cycles have different origins. It is found that these trends occur in this time period in each link of the Sun-Earth system: in the solar activity indices, in the characteristics of the interplanetary medium, and practically in all characteristics of the geophysical, demographical, medical, and other Earth’s processes. From the entire set of facts we can conclude that most of the analyzed Earth’s processes are dominated not by anthropogenic factors, but by the effects of the secular cyclic processes of the solar activity.     

History and Causes of Variations in the Caspian Sea Level: the Miopliocene, 7.1–1.95 Million Years Ago

It is shown that the awareness of the regularities and causes of variations in the Caspian Sea level from the moment of its origin as an isolated lake basin in the Late Miocene (7.2 mln years ago) is of great importance for paleohydrology. Out of the seven principal hydrologic stages of the Caspian Sea history, four stages are considered in this paper: two lake stages (the Late Miocene and Middle Pliocene), the intermediate stage when the Caspian and Zanklinian basins were connected, and the stage of the Manych runoff. An important fact in the Caspian Sea history is emphasized: penetration of the Akchagylian fauna forebears into the Caspian Sea Basin through the Black Sea and the nowadays nonexistent Kuban–Terek Channel (between 5.3 and 3.3 mln years ago). Three phases of penetration of the Mediterranean Zanklinian fauna into the Caspian Basin are recognized. The channel became closed during the Middle Pliocene phase of the Great Caucasian Range elevation (3.3–2.5 mln years ago). This isolation of the Caspian Basin caused the formation of the Great Akchagylian Lake. Its water washed out the New Manych Channel 2.5 mln years ago. From this moment on, the events that occurred in the Caspian Basin and in the Black and Mediterranean seas can be correlated in greater detail, link by link, within the 413-thousand-year period of water abundance.     

Transverse resonance in the high-latitude section of the Earth–ionosphere waveguide during the solar eclipse of March 20, 2015

The spectra of radio atmospheric signals (spherics) recorded simultaneously at two observatories of the Polar Geophysical Institute, Lovozero (67.97° N, 35.08° E) and Barentsburg (78.08° N, 14.22° E), during the solar eclipse on March 20, 2015 are presented. The peculiarities of the behavior of the first critical frequency of the Earth-ionosphere waveguide during the eclipse are described. The effective altitude of the reflective layer of ionosphere is assessed.     

Detection of ionospheric layers in the dayside ionosphere of Venus at altitudes of 80–120 km from Venera-15 and -16 two-frequency radio-occultation results

We propose a technique for analyzing radio-occultation data that allows the effects of the noise, ionosphere, and atmosphere on the radio-occultation results to be reliably separated. This enables a more accurate investigation into the ionosphere formation mechanisms. Ionized layers are shown to exist in the dayside ionosphere of Venus at altitudes from 80 to 120 km. The position of the lower boundary of this ionized region can vary over the range of 80–100 km and the electron density gradients can change several times several.