Improvements on the magnitude-geographic criterion of tsunami hazard

We suggest supplementing the MLH magnitude with the threshold (M _thr) values of MPV, MSH, and MLH magnitudes (Russian scales), as well as M _S and M _W now in wide international use, for issuing tsunami alerts for hazards emanating from the main tsunamigenic zones of the Pacific Ocean. Relations are given to connect the MLH to these magnitudes. A comparative analysis applied to a catalog of large (M ≥ 6) earthquakes in the North Pacific and to the associated tsunami catalog gave the probabilities of false alerts and unpredicted tsunamis as functions of the threshold magnitude value (M _thr). A two-step decision rule is proposed to issue tsunami alerts due to the tsunamigenic zones situated close to the Far East coast of Russia.     

A first estimation of tsunami hazard of the Pacific coast of Costa Rica from local and distant seismogenic sources

Ocean Dynamics - Costa Rica has been affected by several local and distant tsunamis in the past, but the historical information is scarce and incomplete. Its Pacific coast stretches for over a...     

我国地震海啸危险性分析方法研究

美国、日本等国家已经建立了完善的海啸防灾减灾机制，对海啸危险性分析方法的研究也做了很多的工作，而我国目前在这方面尚属空白。本文首次对我国的海啸危险性分析方法进行了研究，提出了我国地震海啸危险性分析的基本原则，在此基础上，借鉴我国成熟的地震危险性分析方法，建立了我国地震海啸危险性分析方法的主要步骤。在根据我国一些历史地震海啸资料的基础上，通过统计的方法对我国珠江三角洲的海啸危险性进行了研究。     

85Kr in Natural Waters of Krasnodarskii Krai

⁸⁵Kr activity was determined in surface water and groundwater in several sites in Krasnodrarskii Krai. The concentration of ²²Na was measured in the same water bodies. A scheme developed for the extraction and measurement of ⁸⁵Kr made it possible to reduce the initial sample volume to 100 liters.     

日本Mw9.0级地震海啸数值模拟与启示

2011年3月11日13时46分日本东北部海域发生Mw9.0级特大地震,地震诱发了海啸.本文依据USGS的震源机制解,进行了地震海啸的数值模拟,并与美国国家海洋与大气管理局布设的海底压力计记录的水深数据对比分析,结果表明数值模拟结果可信.同时,进一步分析了海啸造成巨大损失的原因,并对未来我国海啸防灾减灾工作给出了几点建...     

A reanalysis of the AD 365 tsunami impact along the Egyptian Mediterranean coast

The historical tsunamigenic event of 21 July AD 365 destroyed several coastal locations in the Eastern Mediterranean region. The foremost destructive impacts were recorded in Crete and Egypt. The present study re-examines the effect of location, direction, height and time of travel of the tsunami towards the Egyptian coast. Evidently, this tsunamigenic event is related to an earthquake which is identified with a Hellenic Arc subduction-zone event of great magnitude, M > 8, as manifested by up to 9 m uplift in western Crete. The maximum run-up height distribution in the front of the Nile Delta was about 9.5 m in Alexandria, while those of the neighboring cities were 7.1 m, 4.9 m, and 1.9 m at Rashid, Damietta and El-Arish, respectively. Data obtained from this study is essential to evaluate the tsunami hazards along the Egyptian coast.     

Effects of the Tohoku tsunami of March 11, 2011 on the Pacific coast of Russia

The records of the Tohoku tsunami of March 11, 2011, obtained at the nearest Deep-Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) stations and the coastal telemetric recorders of the Russian Tsunami Warning System, are analyzed. Such parameters as tsunami arrival times, heights of the first and maximal waves, and predominant periods are presented. The eyewitness accounts and photographs of tsunami effects are presented. The tsunami height distribution along the coast of Kuril Islands is discussed.     

Evidence on the Koseda coast of Yakushima Island of a tsunami during the 7.3 ka Kikai caldera eruption

Previous research indicates that Yakushima Island, southwestern Japan, may have been struck by a huge tsunami before or soon after the arrival of the Koya pyroclastic flow during the 7.3 ka caldera‐forming Kikai eruption, but this has not yet been confirmed. This paper describes sedimentological and chronostratigraphic evidence showing that Unit TG, one of three gravel beds exposed on the Koseda coast of northeast Yakushima Island and investigated here, is a tsunami deposit. Unit TG is a poorly sorted, 30 cm thick gravel bed overlying a wave‐cut bench and underlying a Koya pyroclastic flow deposit. Sparse wood fragments in Unit TG were dated at 7 416–7 167 cal year BP. The constituent gravel clasts of Unit TG are similar in composition to those of modern beach and river deposits along the Koseda coast. Unit TG also contains pumice clasts whose chemistry is identical to that of pumice derived from the 7.3 ka eruption at Kikai caldera. The long‐axis orientations and composition of gravel clasts in Unit TG suggest that they were transported by a landward‐travelling high‐particle‐concentration flow, which suggests that Unit TG was deposited by a tsunami run‐up flow during the 7.3 ka Kikai caldera eruption, just before the arrival of the major Koya pyroclastic flow at the Koseda coast. Whether the 7.3 ka tsunami was caused by a volcanic eruption or an earthquake remains unclear, but Unit TG demonstrates that a tsunami arrived immediately before emplacement of a Koya pyroclastic flow.     

Site specific probabilistic seismic hazard analysis at Dubai Creek on the west coast of UAE

A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) was conducted to establish the hazard spectra for a site located at Dubai Creek on the west coast of the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The PSHA considered all the seismogenic sources that affect the site, including plate boundaries such as the Makran subduction zone, the Zagros fold-thrust region and the transition fault system between them; and local crustal faults in UAE. PSHA indicated that local faults dominate the hazard. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) for the 475-year return period spectrum is 0.17 g and 0.33 g for the 2,475-year return period spectrum. The hazard spectra are then employed to establish rock ground motions using the spectral matching technique.     

On the causes of the great damage from the tsunami of March 11, 2011 on the northeast coast of Honshu Island

The catastrophic effects of the March 11, 2011 tsunami on the most affected parts of the northeastern Honshu coast are considered. An analysis of topographic maps and evidences of paleotsunamis and the tsunamis occurring in historical time and instrumental period clearly show the high probability of tsunami occurrence and the high vulnerability of the territory to them. We concluded that the principal factors of the tsunami’s catastrophic effects were land use and buildings without taking into account the factors indicated. The main features determining coast vulnerability to tsunamis are considered.     

Landslide and tsunami hazard at Yate volcano,Chile as an example of edifice destruction on strike-slip fault zones

The edifice of Yate volcano, a dissected stratocone in the Andean Southern Volcanic Zone, has experienced multiple summit collapses throughout postglacial time restricted to sectors NE and SW of the summit. The largest such historic event occurred on 19th February 1965 when ～6.1–10?×?10⁶ m³ of rock and ice detached from 2,000-m elevation to the SW of the summit and transformed into a debris flow. In the upper part of the flow path, velocities are estimated to have reached 40 m s^?1. After travelling 7,500 m and descending 1,490 m, the flow entered an intermontane lake, Lago Cabrera. A wavemaker of estimated volume 9?±?3?×?10⁶ m³ generated a tsunami with an estimated amplitude of 25 m and a run-up of ～60 m at the west end of the lake where a settlement disappeared with the loss of 27 lives. The landslide followed 15 days of unusually heavy summer rain, which may have caused failure by increasing pore water pressure in rock mechanically weathered through glacial action. The preferential collapse directions at Yate result from the volcano’s construction on the dextral strike-slip Liquiñe-Ofqui fault zone. Movement on the fault during the lifetime of the volcano is thought to have generated internal instabilities in the observed failure orientations, at ～10° to the fault zone in the Riedel shear direction. This mechanically weakened rock may have led to preferentially orientated glacial valleys, generating a feedback mechanism with collapse followed by rapid glacial erosion, accelerating the rate of incision into the edifice through repeated landslides. Debris flows with magnitudes similar to the 1965 event are likely to recur at Yate, with repeat times of the order of 10² years. With a warming climate, increased glacial meltwater due to snowline retreat and increasing rain, at the expense of snow, may accelerate rates of edifice collapse, with implications for landslide hazard and risk at glaciated volcanoes, in particular those in strike-slip tectonic settings where orientated structural instabilities may exist.     

Estimating tsunami inundation from hurricane storm surge predictions along the U.S. gulf coast

Gulf of Mexico (GOM) coasts have been included in the U.S. Tsunami Warning System since 2005. While the tsunami risk for the GOM is low, tsunamis generated by local submarine landslides pose the greatest potential threat, as evidenced by several large ancient submarine mass failures identified in the northern GOM basin. Given the lack of significant historical tsunami evidence in the GOM, the potential threat of landslide tsunamis in this region is assessed from a worst-case scenario perspective based on a set of events including the large ancient failures and most likely extreme events determined by a probabilistic approach. Since tsunamis are not well-understood along the Gulf Coast, we investigate tsunami inundation referenced to category-specific hurricane storm surge levels, which are relatively well established along the Gulf Coast, in order to provide information for assessing the potential threat of tsunamis which is more understandable and accessible to emergency managers. Based on tsunami inundation studies prepared for the communities of South Padre Island, TX, Galveston, TX, Mobile, AL, Panama City, FL, and Tampa, FL, we identify regional trends of tsunami inundation in terms of modeled storm surge inundation. The general trends indicate that tsunami inundation can well exceed the level of storm surge from major hurricanes in open beachfront and barrier island regions, while more interior areas are less threatened. Such information can be used to better prepare for tsunami events as well as provide a preliminary estimate of tsunami hazard in locations where detailed tsunami inundation studies have not been completed.     

日本南海海槽发生罕遇地震情况下我国华东沿海的海啸危险性研究

基于日本南海海槽地震活动性和历史海啸事件记载的分析,本文对日本南海海槽发生M_W9.1罕遇地震情况下的海啸进行了数值模拟研究.结果表明:该地震可引发初始波幅约10 m的海啸,6个小时后传至浙江沿海,近岸各处波幅为1—2 m;8个小时后靠近上海海岸线,最大波幅约2 m,受地形影响局地爬高至近3 m;11个小时后抵达苏北黄海沿岸,预计波幅普遍在1 m左右.海啸的上岸高度与海岸附近的海深和海岸线的形态密切相关.我国近岸海域地形变化复杂,海湾众多,对海啸波有放大作用,该模拟结果可能比实际传播到近岸时偏小,因此综合评估日本海啸影响我国华东地区的规模m可达1—2级左右.一旦日本南海发生罕遇地震对我国的影响不容忽视,尤其遇上风暴潮与天文大潮叠加,则可能会造成一定程度的海啸灾害.     

An integrated Bayesian approach to the probabilistic tsunami risk model for the location and magnitude of earthquakes: application to the eastern coast of the Korean Peninsula

We explored the distributional changes in tsunami height along the eastern coast of the Korean Peninsula resulting from virtual and historical tsunami earthquakes. The results confirm significant distributional changes in tsunami height depending on the location and magnitude of earthquakes. We further developed a statistical model to jointly analyse tsunami heights from multiple events, considering the functional relationships; we estimated parameters conveying earthquake characteristics in a Weibull distribution, all within a Bayesian regression framework. We found the proposed model effective and informative for the estimation of tsunami hazard analysis from an earthquake of a given magnitude at a particular location. Specifically, several applications presented in this study showed that the proposed Bayesian approach has the advantage of conveying the uncertainty of the parameter estimates and its substantial effect on estimating tsunami risk.     

Natural radiation and its hazard in copper ore mines in Poland

The doses of gamma radiation, concentrations of radium isotopes in water and sediments, radon concentration and concentration of alpha potential energy of radon decay products in the copper ore mine and in the mining region in the vicinity of Lubin town in Poland are presented. These data served as a basis for the assessment of radiological hazard to the mine workers and general public. The results of this assessment indicate that radiological hazard in the region does not differ substantially from typical values associated with natural radiation background. The calculated average annual effective dose for copper miners is 1.48 mSv. In general, copper ore mines can be regarded as radiologically safe workplaces.     

Space and time variations of the runoff of Kamchatka Krai rivers

The current features of the space and time variations of river runoff in Kamchatka Krai have been considered. Two relatively long cycles have been shown to exist in water runoff variations in the major portion of the examined rivers. The renewable water resources were increasing until 1970–1980, while in the following years (up to 2010), they were gradually decreasing. Current data on river runoff were used to prove the existence of three zonal types of water regime in Kamchatka Krai; five azonal types of annual runoff distribution are characterized. One of them (nearly uniform annual distribution caused by the predominance of groundwater recharge) has been theoretically predicted in the classification proposed by M.I. L’vovich, though without factual confirmation. The specific features of water regime of rivers whose basins lie on the slopes of active volcanoes are considered for the first time. This type of regime typically shows alternating periods of the presence and absence of surface runoff in river channels, corresponding to the inflow of snowmelt or rainfall runoff at high level of subsoil water (when channel deposits are fully saturated with water) or at its low position (when moisture is deficient).     

Limits on the validity of infinite length assumptions for modelling shallow landslides

The infinite slope method is widely used as the geotechnical component of geomorphic and landscape evolution models. Its assumption that shallow landslides are infinitely long (in a downslope direction) is usually considered valid for natural landslides on the basis that they are generally long relative to their depth. However, this is rarely justified, because the critical length/depth (L/H) ratio below which edge effects become important is unknown. We establish this critical L/H ratio by benchmarking infinite slope stability predictions against finite element predictions for a set of synthetic two‐dimensional slopes, assuming that the difference between the predictions is due to error in the infinite slope method. We test the infinite slope method for six different L/H ratios to find the critical ratio at which its predictions fall within 5% of those from the finite element method. We repeat these tests for 5000 synthetic slopes with a range of failure plane depths, pore water pressures, friction angles, soil cohesions, soil unit weights and slope angles characteristic of natural slopes. We find that: (1) infinite slope stability predictions are consistently too conservative for small L/H ratios; (2) the predictions always converge to within 5% of the finite element benchmarks by a L/H ratio of 25 (i.e. the infinite slope assumption is reasonable for landslides 25 times longer than they are deep); but (3) they can converge at much lower ratios depending on slope properties, particularly for low cohesion soils. The implication for catchment scale stability models is that the infinite length assumption is reasonable if their grid resolution is coarse (e.g. >25 m). However, it may also be valid even at much finer grid resolutions (e.g. 1 m), because spatial organization in the predicted pore water pressure field reduces the probability of short landslides and minimizes the risk that predicted landslides will have L/H ratios less than 25. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

地震海啸的激发与传播

本文围绕海啸的激发和传播两个方面简述了有限矩形源产生的地表形变场、浅水波浪理论和Boussinesq方程等基本理论,讨论了震源参数对海啸传播的影响,比较分析了海啸的数值模拟方法,介绍了我国地震海啸的研究进展等。     

Hardware for the seismic subsystem of the tsunami warning service

The paper deals with the reasoning of hardware selection for reference, auxiliary, and strong motion seismic stations for the upgraded seismic subsystem of the tsunami warning service. The structure of subsystem elements and equipment types are described, and their technical characteristics are given. Types and testing procedure are defined, starting from the stage of preparation of the technical project for the designing of software and hardware complexes of specialized seismic stations until the customer acceptance of them to the permanent maintenance.     

基于E-FAST法分析海啸波高对潜在海啸源参数的敏感性

以马尼拉海沟的北断层发生M_W8.0地震在南海引发海啸为假想的模拟情景, 利用E-FAST法定量分析了COMCOT海啸数值模型输出(最大海啸波高)对震级, 震源深度, 震中位置和断层走向、 倾角、 滑动角等震源参数的敏感性, 以及各震源参数间的交互效应对最大海啸波高的影响. 结果表明, 观测点B₁( 20.1°N, 119.4°E)、 B₂(18.4°N, 118.1°E)和B₃(13.5°N, 117.6°E)的最大海啸波高都对震级十分敏感, 对震中位置、 断层走向和倾角较为敏感. 敏感的震源参数在影响上述3个观测点的最大海啸波高时, 与其它震源参数产生了较强的交互效应. 但是对于不同的观测点, 各震源参数的重要度排序则存在一定的差异. 该分析结果有助于更好地认识海啸波高与潜在海啸源参数之间的关系.