Regional 500 mb heights and U.S. 1 000-500 mb thickness prior to the radiosonde era

Summary We developed a statistical model relating cyclone track eigenvectors over the U.S., southern Canada, and nearby oceans to a record of mean annual 500 mb heights. The length of the cyclone track record allowed us to calculate mean heights back to 1885. Use of mean annual surface pressure data allowed us to estimate the mean 1 000-500 mb thickness, which was related to mean annual temperature. This temperature calculation is unique in that it cannot suffer from urban or site bias. We find a warming of 1.5°C from the late 19th century to 1955, followed by a drop of 0.7° to 1980. By 1987, the calculated temperatures were 0.3° above the mean for 103 years of record.As an example of regional application, we examine results over the southwestern U.S.With 8 Figures     

贵州夏季旱涝与北半球500hPa大气环流特征

分析贵州32个测站1961～2003年降水资料,在0～85°N范围内,用36×16个网格点合成分析冬、春、夏季北半球500hPa平均高度场和距平场,结果表明,涝年夏季前期北半球西风带长波槽脊明显,副热带高压势力弱,旱年相反;旱涝年夏季前期距平场分布有明显差异,旱年前期冬季我国西部地区有负距平存在;同期旱年副热带高压势力比涝年强;在东亚地区同期旱年距平为-+-分布,涝年为正距平区.     

SVD方法在前期500hPa环流与贵州春季降水关系中的应用

基于500hPa高度场资料和贵州春季降水场资料,采用奇异值分解(SVD)方法,分析高度场与降水场的关系。结果表明:奇异值分解方法前8个奇异向量占总方差的80%以上,取前8个奇异向量已能代表贵州春季降水的主要分布;春季降水与前期冬季500hPa高度场分布有很好的匹配关系,且不同年份可能呈反位相分布;贵州春季降水除了通常的一致偏多(或偏少)外,还存在东南—西北准对称型分布;当冬季500hPa高度场距平场呈反位相分布时,即除北美地区负距平外,其余地区均呈中低纬负距平、高纬度正距平分布,贵州春季降水为一致的正距平分布。     

长江中下游汛期长期旱涝预报与500毫巴环流型及其变化

本文根据1951—1974年,共24年的500毫巴月平均资料,对长江中、下游汛期旱、涝现象作了环流的对比分析,揭示了长江中、下游汛期旱、涝环流的长期演变的特征。它们之间从前冬就表现有载然不同的环流特征和演变过程。本文还讨论了极地涡旋,50°—80°N间的欧亚阻塞高压,南支槽,西太平洋副高脊以及东亚大槽等系统的分布及演变过程。给出了旱年、涝年的环流模式,提出了汛期旱、涝长期预报指标,并据此做了1976年汛期降水的长期预报试验。     

Sensitivity of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to the dynamical framework in an ocean general circulation model

The horizontal coordinate systems commonly used in most global ocean models are the spherical latitude–longitude grid and displaced poles, such as a tripolar grid. The effect of the horizontal coordinate system on Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is evaluated by using an OGCM (ocean general circulation model). Two experiments are conducted with the model—one using a latitude–longitude grid (referred to as Lat_1) and the other using a tripolar grid (referred to as Tri). The results show that Tri simulates a stronger North Atlantic deep water (NADW) than Lat_1, as more saline water masses enter the Greenland–Iceland–Norwegian (GIN) seas in Tri. The stronger NADW can be attributed to two factors. One is the removal of the zonal filter in Tri, which leads to an increasing of the zonal gradient of temperature and salinity, thus strengthening the north geostrophic flow. In turn, it decreases the positive subsurface temperature and salinity biases in the subtropical regions. The other may be associated with topography at the North Pole, because realistic topography is applied in the tripolar grid while the latitude–longitude grid employs an artificial island around the North Pole. In order to evaluate the effect of the filter on AMOC, three enhanced filter experiments are carried out. Compared to Lat_1, an enhanced filter can also augment NADW formation, since more saline water is suppressed in the GIN seas, but accumulated in the Labrador Sea, especially in experiment Lat_2_S, which is the experiment with an enhanced filter on salinity.     

The relation of meridional pressure gradients to North Atlantic deep water volume transport in an ocean general circulation model

We use a coarse resolution ocean general circulation model to study the relation between meridional pressure and density gradients in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. In several experiments, we artificially modify the meridional density gradients by applying different magnitudes of the Gent–McWilliams isopycnal eddy diffusion coefficients in the Southern Ocean and in the North Atlantic and investigate the response of the simulated Atlantic meridional overturning to such changes. The simulations are carried out close to the limit of no diapycnal mixing, with a very small explicit vertical diffusivity and a tracer advection scheme with very low implicit diffusivities. Our results reveal that changes in eddy diffusivities in the North Atlantic affect the maximum of the Atlantic meridional overturning, but not the outflow of North Atlantic Deep Water into the Southern Ocean. In contrast, changes in eddy diffusivities in the Southern Ocean affect both the South Atlantic outflow of North Atlantic Deep Water and the maximum of the Atlantic meridional overturning. Results from these experiments are used to investigate the relation between meridional pressure gradients and the components of the Atlantic meridional overturning. Pressure gradients and overturning are found to be linearly related. We show that, in our simulations, zonally averaged deep pressure gradients are very weak between 20°S and about 30°N and that between 30°N and 60°N the zonally averaged pressure grows approximately linearly with latitude. This pressure difference balances a westward geostrophic flow at 30–40°N that feeds the southbound deep Atlantic western boundary current. We extend our analysis to a large variety of experiments in which surface freshwater forcing, vertical mixing and winds are modified. In all experiments, the pycnocline depth, assumed to be the relevant vertical scale for the northward volume transport in the Atlantic, is found to be approximately constant, at least within the coarse vertical resolution of the model. The model behaviour hence cannot directly be related to conceptual models in which changes in the pycnocline depth determine the strength of Atlantic meridional flow, and seems conceptually closer to Stommel’s box model. In all our simulations, the Atlantic overturning seems to be mainly driven by Southern Ocean westerlies. However, the actual strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning is not determined solely by the Southern Ocean wind stress but as well by the density/pressure gradients created between the deep water formation regions in the North Atlantic and the inflow/outflow region in the South Atlantic.     

A Multi-Statistical analysis of the southern oscillation (SO) and its relation to the mean monthly atmospheric circulation at 500 hPa in the northern hemisphere

In this paper the correlation analysis, factor analysis, fuzzy classification, and principal component analysis (PCA) are performed for the southern oscillation index (SOI) from the Climate Analysis Center (CAC) at the NOAA. It is shown that the 12-month SOI can be classified into two groups: one from January through April and the other from May through December. They differ in persistency and correlation. It is also found that the year of strong or weak SO can be defined by the first principal component of the SOI. The 11 years of weak SO thus defined contain 9 El Nino events.In addition, the relations between the SOI and 500 hPa geopotential height, mean monthly zonal height, mean monthly interzonal height differences, centers of atmospheric activities, characteristics of the atmospheric circulation (the intensity index of the north polar vortex, the area index of the subtropical West Pacific high, mean monthly zonal and meridional circulation indexes in Asia and Eurasia) in the period of 24 months from January through December of the next year have been examined on the basis of the monthly data from 1951 through 1984. The correlation coefficients and Mahalanobis distances are thus presented. Analysis indicates that in the early part of the low SOI year, i.e., in April, the 500 hPa geopotential height north of 75oN is significantly low and then becomes higher in May. It is found that in April the trough of the first harmonic wave is in the Eastern Hemisphere and the contribution of its variance is smaller than in May. Analysis shows that the opposite is true in the high SOI year. Such variation in the height field during the April-May period is an early signal of the SO at higher latitudes.In the end, a statistical prediction model for the SOI is presented, by means of which a low SOI year as well as an El Nino event has been successfully predicted for 1986.     

Warm spells in Northern Europe in relation to atmospheric circulation

This study describes warm spells in Northern Europe and determines the synoptic situations that cause their occurrence. In this article, a relatively warm day was defined as a day when the maximum temperature exceeded the 95th annual percentile, and a warm spell (WS) was considered to be a sequence of at least five relatively warm days. In the analysed multiannual period and within the investigated area, 24 (Kallax) to 53 (Oslo) WSs were observed. The occurrence of WSs was mainly connected with positive anomalies of sea level pressure and a 500-hPa isobaric surface, displaying the presence of high-pressure systems. This occurrence was also accompanied by positive T850 anomalies.     

Seasonal stability of snow cover in Poland in relation to the atmospheric circulation

The seasonal stability of snow cover (ISS) was defined as a percentage ratio of the real and the potential snow cover duration in a winter season. Main results of the study are as follows: (1) alternately occurring periods of high and low values of the index of snow cover stability did not appeared simultaneously in mountainous and non-mountainous areas; (2) in the majority of Poland area both zonal and meridional components of the atmospheric circulation influence the ISS; however, in south the meridional air flow reveals the stronger impact, mostly due to the intensification of the southern advection by the foehn effect; and (3) changes of two or three indices describing atmospheric circulation explain up to 50 % of the ISS in Poland. The diminishing stability of snow cover in Poland corresponds with an increasing intensity of the advection from the western sector in winter in the second half of the twentieth century in Europe.     

西太平洋地区信风的振动及其与北太平洋热带环流的关系

一、前言 近年来,发现热带和付热带地区的风场存在一种周期约为15天的振动。这种风场的振动,反映了热带大型流场存在周期约为15天的变动,研究这种振动的变化机制对热带大型环流的中期演变预告是很有帮助的。     

Winter season stratospheric circulation in the SAMIL/LASG general circulation model

In this paper, we examine the performance of the 26-level version of the SAMIL/LASG GCM (R42/L26) in simulating the seasonal cycle and perpetual winter mean stratospheric circulation as well as its variability by comparing them with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. The results show that the model is capable of reproducing many key features of the climatology and seasonal variation of the stratospheric circulation despite that the model’s mean polar vortex is stronger and more zonally symmetric compared to the obse...     

Atlantic watermass and circulation response to persistent freshwater forcing in two coupled general circulation models

The sensitivity of the Atlantic circulation and watermasses to biases in the convergence of moisture into the basin is examined in this study using two different general circulation models. For a persistent positive moisture flux into the tropical Atlantic, the average salinity and temperature in the basin is reduced, mainly below mid-depths and in high latitudes. A transient reduction in the Atlantic overturning strength occurs in this case, with a recovery timescale of 1–2 centuries. In contrast, a similar amount of freshwater directed into the Subpolar North Atlantic results in a persistent reduction in overturning and an increase in basin heat and salt content. In the unperturbed pre-industrial simulations, the Atlantic is unambiguously warmer and saltier than historical observations below mid-depths and in the Nordic Seas. The models’ tropical freshwater flux sensitivities project strongly onto the spatial pattern of this bias, suggesting a common atmospheric deficiency. The integrated Atlantic plus Arctic surface freshwater flux in these models is between ?0.5 and ?0.6 Sv, compared with an observational estimate of ?0.28 Sv. Our results suggest that shortcomings in the models’ ability to reproduce realistic bulk watermass properties are due to an overestimation of the inter-basin moisture export from the tropical Atlantic.     

Sensitivity of transient eddies to climate change in the CCC general circulation model

Abstract

We use eddy life‐cycle simulations to evaluate the response of atmospheric transient eddies to a global warming caused by CO₂ doubling in the CCC general circulation model. In simulations using Northern Hemisphere winter conditions, transient waves attain larger kinetic energy and encompass a wider range of latitudes in the warmer climate. This behaviour contrasts with a previous investigation that used output from the NCAR and GFDL models. Our analysis indicates two primary factors for the difference between model responses: (1) a smaller change in the mid‐latitude temperature gradient in the CCC model, which allows (2) increased atmospheric water vapour in mid‐latitudes to catalyze a more rapidly evolving life‐cycle.     

The vertical transfer of momentum in the general circulation

Summary A simplified scheme of the transfer of zonal momentum in the general circulation is first summarised. Observational evidence in support of the pattern of vertical transfer is then provided from the relation between the fields of pressure and wind over the oceans in the Trades and westerlies, with large down-gradient motion in the former and very little cross-isobar motion in the latter. In neither case are the concepts of the classical (barotropic) friction layer valid. The vertical gradients of downwind and cross-wind shear stress are evaluated and from them climatological values of eddy viscosity are deduced for the surface layers. Values of eddy viscosity at levels of a few hundred metres are also deduced and found to be greater than at lower levels, consistent with the pattern of momentum transfer advanced. The transfer in the lower troposphere is probably mainly convective above the layer of mechanical turbulence. There is a concluding discussion on the nature of the vertical transfer of momentum in the middle and upper troposphere.

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Zusammenfassung Zunächst wird ein vereinfachtes Schema für den Transport der zonalen Bewegungsgröße in der allgemeinen Zirkulation skizziert. Hierauf werden auf Grund der Beziehungen zwischen Druck- und Windfeld über den Ozeanen in den Gebieten der Passatwinde und der Westströmung auf Beobachtungsmaterial beruhende Beweise für den Vertikaltransport entwickelt; dabei erweist sich der Winkel zwischen Isobaren und Windrichtung in den Passatgebieten als groß, in der Westströmung als klein. In keinem der beiden Fälle haben die Anschauungen über die klassische (barotrope) Reibungsschicht Gültigkeit. Die Vertikalgradienten der Schubspannung in Richtung wie auch senkrecht zum Winde werden berechnet und daraus klimatologische Mittelwerte der scheinbaren Viskosität (Austausch) für bodennahe Schichten abgeleitet. Werte der scheinbaren Viskosität werden auch für Niveaus von einigen 100 m berechnet und größer als in niedrigeren Schichten gefunden, was in Übereinstimmung mit der entwickelten Anschauung über das Schema der Fortpflanzung der Bewegungsgröße steht. Der Austausch in der unteren Troposphäre oberhalb der Schicht mechanischer Turbulenz ist wahrscheinlich in der Hauptsache konvektiv. Zum Schluß wird das Wesen des Vertikalaustausches der Bewegungsgröße in der mittleren und oberen Troposphäre diskutiert.

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Résumé Un schéma simplifié du transport, dans la circulation générale, de la quantité de mouvement zonal est d'abord esquissé. Des arguments en faveur du transport vertical proposé sont alors fournis par les relations des champs de pression et du vent au-dessus des océans dans les zones des alizés et du courant d'ouest; dans la première, l'angle entre l'isobare et la direction du vent est grande, dans la seconde il est petit. Dans aucun des deux cas, la conception de la couche de friction classique (barotropique) n'est valable. Les gradients verticaux des tensions internes sont évalués dans la direction et normalement à la direction du vent et des valeurs climatologiques de la viscosité apparente due à la turbulence en sont déduites pour les couches voisines du sol. Les valeurs de la viscosité apparente calculées pour des niveaux de quelques centaines de mètres sont plus grandes que celles des niveaux bas, concordant ainsi avec le transport vertical proposé. Dans la basse troposphère le transport est probablement surtout convectif au-dessus de la couche de turbulence. En conclusion l'auteur discute la nature du transport vertical de la quantité de mouvement dans la troposphère moyenne et supérieure.

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With 1 Figure.