长期极移的移动方向及北京中轴线偏移之谜

太阳光压、地球的公转与自转、黄赤交角的存在及地球表面陆地和海洋的地理分布绝妙地组成了一套天然的能激发自转轴晃动(Wobble)并产生极移的日-地间能量(动量)相耦合的物理机制.太阳光压对自转轴摆动的激发时间存在两种不同的周期,即周年期激发机制和周日期激发机制,由此产生的极移运动轨迹也可分为周年期变化和周日期变化两种,这两种极移运动轨迹中均含有长期极移的成分.本文详细讨论了周日期激发机制引起的瞬时极移及其运动特征和长期极移及其运动方向,并按现今地球表面陆地和海洋的分布格局,求出长期极移的总体运动方向大致为参考极M沿西经70°～80°向加拿大的埃尔斯米尔岛移动.依据本文的研究成果,可以帮助人们揭开自元代(距今已800多年)以来所建立的北京中轴线为什么逆时针偏离子午线2°多这一极富传奇色彩的谜团.     

极移的成因及其移动特征

作者发现：太阳辐射,地球自转与公转,黄、赤交角的存在,陆地和海洋在地球表面南、北半球的不规则、不对称地理分布,及地球内部因〖ZZ(〗核外液体〖ZZ)〗形成的分层结构,构成了一套天然的能使地球产生自由章动的日、地间动量（能量）相耦合的物理机制.经研究,由该机制产生的极移具有以下主要特征：（1）极移轨迹的运动周期为13个月（0.92周/年）,该周期由二个主要分量组成,一个为12个月（1周/年）,另一个是14.1个月（0.85周/年,即钱德勒周期）.（2）极移运动轨迹是是椭圆,短半轴（b）与长半轴(a)之比为0.86;扁率（a\|b/a）为1：7.1.（3）瞬时极移振幅|m|的变化：对1周/年项,|m|随太阳回归运动而变化,在二至点时最大,在二分点时最小,具有对称性;对0.85周/年项,|m|随太阳回归运动而变化,在夏至点最大,每年12月5日左右最小.（4）瞬时极移存在反向运动（由东向西）.在1周/年项极移运动中,自转极的正、反方向运动振幅的贡献各占50%;在0.85周/年项的极移运动中,反向运动的时间仅有33天,约占正向运动时间的1/10,正向运动振幅的贡献占96%,反向运动振幅的贡献大约占4%.（5）若以国际极点（CIO）为原点,自转极相对CIO的位移运动轨迹必然落在偏向于CIO的西侧.（6）极移振幅将长期保持下去而不会衰减,原因是太阳辐射为自转轴受迫摆动提供了长期、稳定的激发能源.     

地球自转学科中遗留若干主要难题的解析

近二百多年来的地球自转学科研究中,除岁差和章动的成因依据(万有)引力相互作用理论已经得到解决外,极移(包括长期极移)和日长(l.o.d)的变化问题一直还处在探讨和争论之中,尚遗留如下七个主要难题没有解决:1)极移是欧拉(Eular,1765)根据刚体自转的分析得出地球自转极相对地壳作周期为305天的摆动吗?2)极移周期的定量解释,钱德勒周期为什么不是单值的,约在425~440天之间变化?观测的极移轨迹运动周期为什么也不是单值的,而是在13.0~13.3个月之间变化?3)作为自由运动,钱德勒摆动最终将会逐渐衰减殆尽,为什么二百多年来的天文观测资料却未发现钱德勒振幅有任何渐自减弱的迹象,是什么因素在克服阻尼而维持这种运动呢?它的能量消耗到哪里去了?4)极移的成因机制是什么?5)极移与地震的关系?6)地球自转速度季节性变化的主要原因是什么?7)长期极移的成因及其运动方向?宋贯一(1991,2006,2008,2012)依据大量的宏观事实,发现和证明了自然界还存在有与(万有)引力相互作用相对应的(光压)斥力相互作用.本文依据(光压)斥力相互作用理论去解析上述七个难题,取得了立竿见影的效果.     

天文观测极移运动周期变化的原因解析

宋贯一（1991,2006）相继发现日-地之间存在一种奇特的能量（动量）相耦合的自然现象:当太阳辐射光压作用于地表之后,地球表面物质的特殊物理性质会自然地把太阳辐射光压立刻分解为两部分,即P₁和P₂.其中P₁为全球各纬度带内单位海洋和陆地表面接收到的等值光压（P₁为随时间和纬度而变化的变量）.在一个回归年的时段内,由P₁在北、南两半球上的不平衡分布激发自转轴摆动,引起转动惯量的变化（该变化是目前所了解到的地球转动惯量的最大变化）并产生极移,该项极移运动的周期为12个月左右.由于P₁在北、南半球上的分布相对赤道是基本对称的和规则的,P₁对自转轴摆动的激发可称谓“规则性激发”;P₂为全球各纬度带内单位陆地和海洋表面接收到的光压值之差（P₂为随时间和纬度而变化的变量）.在一个回归年的时段内,由 P₂在北、南两半球上的不平衡分布激发自转轴摆动而产生的极移运动周期为14个月附近.由于P₂在北、南两半球上的分布相对赤道是不对称和不规则的, P₂对自转轴摆动的激发可称谓“不规则性激发”.这种天然存在的力源,恰恰是近百年来世界各国研究地球自转的地球物理学家渴望寻找的那种既能激发自转轴产生自由章动、又使其摆动含有两个不同周期（12个月和14个月）的激发力源.正是这一奇特自然现象的发现,才使长期以来困扰地球物理学领域内的极移、极移所包含两个周期的涨落变化及由此引起的地球自转速度变化等自然之谜得以破解成为可能. 本文作者仅对天文观测的极移运动周期及其极移运动所包含的两个周期分量在一定的范围内变化的成因作出了详细的解析,并得出如下结论： （1）极移运动主要是由太阳光压P₁ 和P₂共同激发引起的.天文观测的极移摆动周期的涨落变化是太阳光压（P₁＋P₂）激发自转轴摆动过程中,在空间上自转轴的摆动中心相对自转轴中心（地心）移动造成的,涨落范围在395～403±2天之间,即天文观测的极移运动的实际计算周期应在13.0～13.3个月之间变化.（2）极移所含的周年期摆动是由太阳光压P₁激发的.天文观测的周年期摆动周期涨落很小,变化于365.24～365.53天之间.在一个回归年内,由于日-地间距离的变化,使地球表面接受到的太阳辐射光能产生微小差异则是造成观测的周年摆动周期稍有拖长的原因.（3）极移所含的钱德勒摆动周期是由太阳光压P₂激发的.天文观测的钱德勒周期涨落较大,变化于426～437±2天之间,即实际计算周期应在14.0～14.4个月之间变化.观测的钱德勒摆动周期的变化是太阳光压P₂激发自转轴摆动过程中,在空间上自转轴的摆动中心相对自转轴中心（地心）移动造成的.上述的定量解析数据均得到实际观测资料的验证,为极移光压成因理论的正确性提供了具体详实的证据.     

关于钱德勒章动的探讨

本文从地球在太阳系内的自转和公转运行规律及太阳与地球之间的动量交换机制,来探讨地极的移动。为此,作者引出了光压矩和光压冲量矩的概念。在地球的自转和公转运动中,由于赤黄交角的存在和地球北南半球陆地表面积分布的不平衡性,在太阳光压的作用下,北南半球相对赤道产生不相等的光压矩,从而使原来平衡的以地心为支点的自转轴两端分别施加了周期性的外力,导致自转轴的晃动,产生极移。本文计算了(1)二分点(日)及二至点(日)地球北南半球相对赤道产生的较差光压冲量矩的大小,即极移的激发量级;(2)夏至点(日)和冬至点(日)地球北南半球相对赤道产生的光压矩及光压冲量矩呈反向变化,即极移振幅衰减和产生阻尼的原因;(3)从光压等效面积对称轴及光压冲量矩对称轴计算,钱德勒章动周期为435天左右。作者通过对地球东半球和西半球的北南部分相对赤道产生的光压矩对比分析,认为理论上地极的长期漂移是存在的。按现代全球陆地表面积沿经线的分布格局,长期极移的运动方向大致是沿西经90°向北美移动。作者引用统计资料,为太阳活动在地球上产生相对赤道的光压矩导致极移的理论提供了证据。     

太阳自转每隔11年受到行星系统反方向旋转切向力的作用

基于创建的行星会合指数(K)运动学方程,得到太阳绕太阳系质心绕转的真正周期为准22.1826年.在整个太阳系角动量守恒前提下,根据K指数所指代的太阳绕太阳系质心运动轨迹推出:太阳绕转和太阳自转各自角动量虽不守恒,但二者角动量之和守恒.当行星系统处于最大相背离状态,太阳自转角动量增加,太阳自转受到逆时针方向旋转切向力的作用;当行星系统处于最大会合状态,太阳自转角动量减小,太阳自转受到顺时针方向旋转切向力的作用.行星系统远日4颗大质量行星和近日4颗小质量行星对太阳引力的合力沿太阳绕转轨道半径垂直方向的分力,具有准22年周期变化,而且该力的方向就是沿太阳旋转运动轨迹的切向方向.该分力11年与太阳自转方向同向,另11年与太阳自转方向反向,且分别对应太阳自转角动量11年增大和11年减小的变化.这为研究太阳22年磁周期动力学机制探寻到一种新的思想方法.     

地球自转周期、极移和章动与全球强震关联分析

目前,人们还无法准确地预报地震。找到地震和某种物理量之间的关系,积极地研究地震的触发因素具有非常深远的意义。漂浮在软流层上的地球板块随地球一起转动,地球自转变化可能对强震有一定的触发作用。统计2000年以后全球M_W7.9以上强震和地球自转周期、极移以及章动的关系,发现全球强震和大约13～15天的日长变化、大约一年周期极移变化以及十几天左右不规则章动有很强的关联性。通过贝叶斯公式分析,强震发生在日长变化拐点处的概率为随机概率的3倍,发生在极移X方向拐点处的概率为随机概率的6倍,发生在极移Y方向拐点处的概率为随机概率的3倍,发生在章动拐点处的概率为随机概率的2倍。这种拐点不是固定周期,它受到各种摄动因素而发生不规则漂移,全球强震往往发生在上述周期变化的拐点处。希望以上结论能对大地震预报提供有益的参考信息。     

一种适用于极移预报的附加误差修正的LS＋AR新模型

极移是指地球瞬时自转轴在地球本体内运动而导致极点在地球表面上的位置发生缓慢变化的现象,是研究地球自转的一个重要的内容.LS＋AR模型被认为是目前极移预报中最好的模型之一.通过对LS＋AR模型的短期预报残差的时间序列统计分析,发现相邻期的模型预报残差具有极高的相关性,由此提出利用上一期的模型预报残差和经验调节矩阵对下一期预报结果进行修正,从而建立了一种适用于极移预报的附加误差修正的LS＋AR新模型.运用新模型进行了模拟预报,结果表明该方法对于提高极移的预报精度和可靠性均有帮助,采用新方法进行超短期和短期预报的精度均达到了目前国际最好的精度水平.     

地球自转角速度长周期变化对太阳轨道运动特征的一种响应机制

地球自转角速度的季节性和年变化的成因已达成基本共识,但更长时间尺度的周期性变化成因尚无定论,它们或归因于太阳活动、日月引潮力、地壳反弹、大气圈波动或行星摄动的影响等.直至目前,地球自转变化的规律和机制还没有完全弄清楚.研究发现:根据行星会合指数(K)标定太阳轨道运动特征的方法是可行的.通过对行星会合指数(K)的FFT检测发现太阳轨道运动周期与前人研究的地球自转日长(LOD)变化周期具有极强的相关性.太阳轨道运动在受到行星系统力矩作用的同时,致使近日行星轨道运动受到太阳引力作用的波动影响而产生扰动.受太阳巨大引力作用的牵制,导致地球轨道角动量和太阳轨道角动量的变化具有正相关关系.根据地球轨道角动量和自转角动量之和守恒,进而推断地球自转角速度的变化对太阳轨道运动特征的响应,这在思想方法上是一种突破.     

基于行星会合指数对太阳轨道运动速度和加速度指数的建立——对太阳自转运动周期性振荡成因机制的探讨

Tlatov(2007)研究表明太阳自转具有准22年振荡周期,并认为是太阳系自引力造成的.根据刘复刚和王建(2013)创建的行星会合指数KP(令KP=K是为了和其他指数的表现形式相统一)和获得的修正系数发现:太阳轨道运动具有平均准22.1826年运动周期,认为太阳轨道角动量和太阳自转角动量的周期性叠加致使太阳自转角速度具有准22.20年周期性变化.基于行星会合指数KP同时标定了太阳质心S相对于一个无法观测到的太阳系质心C位置关系的变化规律,进而通过太阳轨道运动指数KS、速率指数Kv、加速度指数Kα对太阳轨道运动特征进行了系统描述,这使得从行星系统之视角分析、揭示太阳运动和太阳活动成为可能,并对太阳自转运动的准11年和22年周期振荡受控于太阳轨道运动的调控进行了分析,这从探索途径和思想方法上是一种突破.依K_P表达式给出的太阳轨道运动轨迹与Jose(1965)、杨志根等(1988)、Scafetta(2014)、Mc Cracken等(2014)给出的图像不但形态特征相同而且图像的相位也完全一致.行星会合指数KP更重要的作用是标定了行星系统质心距离太阳位置关系的变化.本文从行星系统质心出发,根据行星系统质心P与太阳质心S绕太阳系质心C同步运动这一基本原理来进一步揭示太阳轨道运动规律.由于研究问题的出发点和视角不同,按这一途径可根据8大行星公开的天文数据分析太阳轨道运动规律.这种方法不但把纷繁复杂的行星系统统一起来,呈现出行星系统固有的整体运动规律,而且在整个太阳系中建立了与太阳处于相同子系统地位的行星系统质心.在此基础上,通过行星系统质心P与太阳S间位置关系变化,系统分析了太阳S和太阳系质心C的统一与分野规律.其重要意义是通过行星系质心运动规律发现它与太阳轨道运动特征间的本质联系,这使得从行星系统质心的运动特征对太阳运动与太阳活动关系的探寻成为可能.     

Seismic excitation of the polar motion, 1977–1993

The mass redistribution in the earth as a result of an earthquake faulting changes the earth's inertia tensor, and hence its rotation. Using the complete formulae developed byChao andGross (1987) based on the normal mode theory, we calculated the earthquake-induced polar motion excitation for the largest 11,015 earthquakes that occurred during 1977.0–1993.6. The seismic excitations in this period are found to be two orders of magnitude below the detection threshold even with today's high precision earth rotation measurements. However, it was calculated that an earthquake of only one tenth the size of the great 1960 Chile event, if happened today, could be comfortably detected in polar motion observations. Furthermore, collectively these seismic excitations have a strong statistical tendency to nudge the pole towards 140°E, away from the actually observed polar drift direction. This non-random behavior, similarly found in other earthquake-induced changes in earth rotation and low-degree gravitational field byChao andGross (1987), manifests some geodynamic behavior yet to be explored.     

Testing of the IERS2000 Sub-Daily Earth Rotation Parameter Model

The differences between the new International Earth Rotation Service (IERS) 2000 and the previous IERS1996 sub-daily Earth rotation parameters (ERP) models can reach 0.1 mas (0.001 arc sec) and 0.1 mas/day. The largest differences are seen for the aliasing periods of 14.2 and 360 days, which correspond to the diurnal tidal waves of O1 and (K1, P1), respectively. Precise independent polar motion (PM) rate solutions effectively doubles the sampling rate and allows for effective testing of sub-daily ERP models and other periodical effects at the diurnal and semi-diurnal frequency bands. Since November 12, 2000, when the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) Analysis Center of International GPS Service (IGS) has switched to the conventional IERS1996 sub-daily ERP model, from the older model of Herring and Dog (1994), the JPL daily PM rate solutions show no, or greatly reduced 14.2 day amplitude (O1) peaks. This confirmed that the anomalistic amplitudes at 14.2 day period seen for JPL PM solutions prior November 12, 2000 was largely due to the effects of the older sub-daily ERP model on independent PM rate solutions. As indicated by the latest IGS PM rate solutions, which were corrected for the IERS1996 and 2000 model differences, the new IERS2000 sub-daily ERP model is expected to perform equally well as the conventional IERS1996 model.     

Influence Of The Atmosphere On Earth Rotation: What New Can Be Learned From The Recent Atmospheric Angular Momentum Estimates?

The interaction between the atmosphere and the underlying solid mantle is oneof the most important sources of changes in all three components of theEarth's rotation vector on different time scales. In this paper the NCEP/NCARreanalysis time series of four times daily atmospheric effective angularmomentum (EAM) estimates is used to investigate some selected aspects of theatmospheric influence on Earth rotation. Emphasis is placed on thecontroversial features which were difficult or impossible to study using theoperational EAM data, such as excitation of the free oscillations in polarmotion, the Chandler wobble (CW) and the free core nutation (FCN), or theroles of diurnal and semidiurnal atmospheric tides and atmospheric normalmodes in the rotational dynamics of the Earth.     

极移振幅主要周期分量的时变特征

用JPL近年发布的地极坐标序列求得1893―1998年间极移的振幅序列,用最大熵谱分析方法求得了该资料序列包含的一些周期的参数,并利用小波变换方法分析讨论了其中的主要周期的变化.结果表明,极移振幅变化中存在着约6.5年和约40年的主要周期,且它们均具有一定程度的时变性.因此,在研究讨论极移与一些地球物理现象和自然灾害现象的关系时,应特别注意极移振幅中主要周期的时变特征.     

Free Wobble of the Triaxial Earth: Theory and Comparisons with International Earth Rotation Service (IERS) Data

Earth’s free wobble is often referred to as the Euler wobble (for the rigid case) or the Chandler wobble for the real case. In this study, we investigate the theory of the free wobble of the triaxial Earth and demonstrate that: (1) the Euler period should actually be expressed by the complete elliptic integral of first kind, and (2) the trace of the free polar motion is elliptic, with the orientations of its semi-minor and major axes being approximately parallel to the Earth’s principal axes A and B, respectively. Numerical calculations show that, due to the triaxiality of the Earth, the spin rate ω ₃ fluctuates with the semi-Euler/Chandler period, although its amplitude (about 10⁻¹⁹ rad/s) is rather small and beyond the present measurement accuracy; the tilt of the instantaneous spin axis (or the amplitude of the free wobble), θ, has a fluctuation whose amplitude is around 0.34 milli-arcsecond (mas), which could be detected by present observations. Thus, we conclude that the Earth’s triaxial nature has little impact on ω ₃, but has an influence on the polar motion which should not be ignored. On the other hand, our study shows that there is a mechanism of frequency–amplitude modulation in the Chandler wobble which might be a candidate to explain the correlation between the amplitude and period of the Chandler wobble. We compare the theoretical polar parameters (m ₁, m ₂) with the observed values for the Chandler components obtained from the data EOP (IERS) C 04, and find that they coincide with each other quite well, especially for recent years. In addition, a polar wander towards 76.7°W, which is in agreement with previous results given by other scientists, is also obtained.     

双重约束条件下的连续重力观测非线性漂移改正方法分析

连续重力观测去除固体潮后所得重力残差结果,除了受仪器故障、自然因素、人为因素以及供电系统干扰外,弹簧重力仪的长期漂移也成为重力变化的重要影响因素,故漂移改正不可忽略。本文以高台地震台近5年的连续重力观测资料为数据基础,采用多阶多项式拟合法,并以驰豫分析结果和流动重力场结果为约束,研究弹簧重力仪的非线性漂移特征及其漂移改正的合理性。研究结果表明：高台重力仪的线性和非线性漂移特征明显,严重影响了其他微弱重力信号的提取,而驰豫分析处理结果和流动重力场成为有效地辅助约束手段,在其双重制约下进行非线性漂移改正,使所得重力非潮汐结果更为准确可靠,为地震预测预报提供较为准确的参考依据。     

A Possible Detection of the 26 December 2004 Great Sumatra-Andaman Islands Earthquake with Solution Products of the International GNSS Service

The main goal of this work is to critically review the IGS solution products and Precise Point Positioning (PPP) in order to demonstrate their potential to contribute to studies of large earthquakes such as the one that devastated Southeast Asia on December 26th, 2004. In view of a possible detection of the Mw 9.0 Sumatra-Andaman Islands Earthquake of December 26, 2004, position solutions, ranging from intervals of years to one second, of four International GNSS Service (IGS) stations within 3000 km of the epicenter were examined. The IGS combined, cumulative solution product (IGS04P51), consisting of epoch and station velocity solutions and based on data spans of several years prior to the earthquake, was used as a reference. Four IGS combined weekly position solutions (igs04P1301-4), two weeks before and after the earthquake, were utilized for the weekly solution resolution. PPP static and kinematic solutions with IGS Final combined orbits and clocks were used for the mean daily and instantaneous 5-min and 1-sec epoch solutions, respectively. The most significant changes, detected by both weekly and daily solutions occurred in longitude. The nearest IGS station ntus, about 1000 km east of the epicenter, moved westward about 15 mm, while the more distant Indian station iisc (∼ 2300 km NW from the epicenter), shifted about 15 mm eastward. In spite of position errors caused by interpolation of the 5-min IGS clocks, the 1-sec solutions, based on separate data sets, available only for two stations (iisc, dgar), still showed seismic surface waves, in particular at the Indian station iisc. Precise daily IGS combined polar motion and length-of-day products, after correcting for the atmospheric effects, also likely detected, statistically significant, anomalistic excitations on December 26, 2004 that could be caused by this great earthquake.     

Earth Rotation Parameters 1899.7–:1992.0 After Reanalysis Within The Hipparcos Frame

Earth rotation parameters (ERP) in the interval 1899.7–1992.0 are obtained from re-analysis of the observed latitude/universal time variations by optical astrometry. Hipparcos Catalogue is used to define the celestial reference frame, within which the ERP are described, with special care devoted to 'problematic' double and/or multiple stars. The terrestrial reference frame is defined by the adopted latitudes/longitudes of participating instruments and their secular motions as given by the NUVEL-1 NNR model of plate motions, and it is chosen to be very close to the International Terrestrial Reference Frame (ITRF). More than four million observations made with 48 different instruments at 31 observatories, located all over the world, are utilized to determine polar motion, celestial pole offsets and (after 1956) universal time UT1, all at 5-day intervals. Along with these parameters, the combinations of Love and Shida numbers, governing the tidal variations of the local verticals at individual observatories, are also determined. The analysis of the results covering almost a century, namely the long-periodic polar motion and length-of-day changes, is presented.     

Study on the severest real ground motion for seismic design and analysis

How to select the adequate real strong earthquake ground motion for seismic analysis and design of trucures is an essential problem in earthquake engineering research and practice.In the paper the concept of the severest design ground motion is proposed and a method is developed for comparing the severity of the recorded strong ground motions.By using this method the severest earthquake ground motions are selected out as seismic inputs to the structures to be designed from a database that consists of more than five thousand significant strong ground moton records collected over the world.The selected severest ground motions are very likely to be able to drive the structures to their critical response and thereby result in the highest damage potential.It is noted that for different structures with diffferent predominant natural periods and at different sites where structures are located the severest design ground motions are usually different.Finally.two examples are illustrated to demonstrate the rationality of the concept and the reliability of the selected design motion.