裂隙介质弹性性质研究

波在介质中传播，主要是受介质的弹性性质的影响，在各向同性的岩石背景上，含有裂隙；岩石表现为各向异性，裂隙的形状不同，各向异性的性质也不同。本文在Hudson模型基础上，应用散射理论，研究了垂直定向分布的裂隙介质（EDA），水平分布的裂隙介质（PTL）、正交裂隙介质（ORA）、两组垂直斜交的裂隙介质（EDA＋EDA）等4种类型裂隙介质的弹性性质，给出弹性参数计算公式，并分析了裂隙介质与各向异性之间的内在联系。     

印尼海啸地震的钻孔应力应变观测资料

钻孔应力-应变地震前兆观测台网，是全国地震前兆监测台网的一个组成部分。该手段由于美国板块边界观测（PBO）项目的影畸，正在日益受到人们的重视（邱泽华等，2002；邱泽华等，2004a；邱泽华等，2004）。钻孔应力-应变观测对象包括：体应变、分量应变、分量应力和差应变。目前登记在册并正常运行的钻孔应力一应变地震前兆监测台站共计45个，分布于14个省、自治区和直辖市。有的台站有多种观测项目，例如昌平台，作为钻孔应力-应变综合观测台，曾经有5～6种钻孔应力-应变观测项目，目前有体应变、压容分量应变和差应变三种观测。目前正常运行的观测项目共有49个。     

大地电磁测深资料解释的新方法

大地电磁测深 (MT)资料解释中 ,长期以来使用观测的视电阻率作为解释参数。但视电阻率存在一定的局限性。相位微分为MT的解释增加了一种新的手段。从理论上研究了相位微分的性质 ,并将其应用于松辽盆地北部MT资料解释中 ,得出了A剖面的电性特征 ,确定了主要电性层的深度和电阻率。     

地震水化前兆的灰色识别

本文研究了水化地震前兆的灰色系统识别方法, 并以北京栏杆市热水井H2浓度动态为例建立了GM(1, 1)滑动识别模型。文中提出了动态前兆识别参数M(t)的概念, 认为动态前兆识别参数M(t)比静态识别指标更有效。用这种识别法进行后验性识别, 提前于内蒙丰镇1981年8月13日5.8级地震前15天识别出发震前兆。以唐山地震前后津2热水井CO2前兆异常识别的失败为反例, 分析了失败的原因, 认为对地震平静期的观测研究是进行水化前兆灰色识别的前提。     

珠三角地区地震前兆场特征及近期地震危险性分析

应用时空域层次分析新思路及我国地震科技攻关成果对珠江三角洲地区的地震前兆资料进行了数据处理和综合分析,对该区的地震前兆场特征作了较全面系统的研究,并对目前存在的区域前兆异常场进行特征分析。研究认为,区内现有的前兆监测方法在中强地震发生前呈现出与正常动态变化相异的中期或中短期前兆异常反映,并具有相对丛集的总体特征。前兆异常场由东莞虎门重力、广州水化学等构成。最后对珠江三角洲地区近期的地震危险性进行了分析。     

南海晚新生代地层结构特征、沉积厚度及沉积模式

本文综合地震、钻井及区域地质资料，通过分析地震相参数等，研究南海晚新生代（E3-Q）地层结构特征和沉积厚度变化，建立了晚新生代沉积模式，所取得的研究成果可为南海油气的进一步勘探开发提供有效的基础资料。     

兴蒙、吉黑地区岩石圈电性结构特征

采用具有国际先进水平的二维连续自动反演技术对收集的MT资料进行了二维反演和综合解释。得到了不同地区MT剖面的二维电性结构断面。通过二维反演断面发现了松辽盆地的东西边界较陡,而南部边界较缓的电性结构;发现在火山地区12～30km深度普遍存在低阻物体,为解释火山地区深部存在岩浆囊提供了依据。另外,于桦南—饶河重新实施的MT剖面,其二维反演断面也较清楚地揭示出:剖面西段为高阻特征且具有稳定的岩石圈厚度(80～90km),该区段对应佳木斯地块;剖面中部具有明显的电性梯度带,该梯度带为确定佳木斯地块的东界位置及其深部结构形态提供了依据;剖面东段则揭示了佳木斯地块以东地区浅部为逆冲推覆体,深部为多个高阻块体与低阻条带相间的电性结构。     

基于动态重力信息的地震前兆与强震短临预报

地震预报是当今世界尚未破解的重大科技难题，短临地震预报是地震预报的难点，有效的前兆信息则是短临预报的关键。笔者围绕短临地震预报难题，研制了高精度动态固体潮汐重力仪和大气潮汐重力仪，成功捕获到2010～2023年间的玉树7.1级地震、土耳其7.8级地震等震前几十个小时的动态重力场变化信息。这些信息再现了强震孕育–发生的过程，初步揭示短临阶段“基本稳定→闭锁蓄能→震前平静→能量释放”的强震物理机制，可作为短临地震预报的前兆信息。为实现对短临地震“时-空-强”的准确预报，提出通过动态重力场变化组网观测和分布式前兆信息数据库建设，进一步揭示不同类型地震的动态重力信号响应规律，建立强震发生概率、时间、震中位置及震级预报模型的可行性路径，渴望破解强震短临预报的世界难题。     

MT方法对一维地质体探测能力的研究

用MT方法对一维地质体的探测能力进行研究。结果表明 ,在合适条件下MT方法的探测深度可达几千公里。但具体探测深度与异常体的电性、规模、围岩电性有关。一般来说 ,异常体规模越大 ,可探测深度越大 ;异常体与围岩的电性差越大 ,可探测深度越大     

华北地台地热勘探中利用大地电磁测深法(MT)圈定热田范围和探讨地热形成机制

利用大地电磁测深法（MT）反映地质体的电性差异,首先可以确定地质体的空间展布、地质结构和构连;而由于地质体电阻率受地热水影响而降低,进而据此圈定地热水的分布范围;并在此基础上可以进一步探讨地热形成机制。在华北地台地热勘探中MT法取得了较好的勘探效果。     

Deepwater helium in Lake Baikal as an earthquake precursor

In this paper, attention is paid to the importance of short-term prognosis of earthquakes. The variability of determination methods is noted. One of the geochemical methods, based on study of the helium content in deep water of Lake Baikal, is considered; such a method has not been used for open deep-water basins within the zones of high seismic danger. It is established that in the period of earthquake preparation, variations in the helium content deep underwater in Lake Baikal are recorded. A sharp decrease in the helium content two days before the earthquake was recorded first time for a long period of observation, as well as the consequent increase. Further study of the helium content deep underwater in Lake Baikal is recommended, and, should these data be proved, it is recommended as a short-term precursor of earthquakes.     

岩浆泡破裂引发地震的模式——以吉林松原2013年地震群为例

2013年10月31日,吉林省松原前郭尔罗斯蒙古族自治县（44.60°N,124.18°E）发生震级为5.5级地震,此后的40 d内发生了700多次地震,其中5级以上地震5次。松原地区近年来地震活动频繁,2014年1月以来又发生4级以上地震9次、5级以上地震1次,震中处于松辽盆地油气田开采区,地震活动序列十分特殊。为了揭示松原地震的发震机制与发震模式,研究深部地质过程与地震的关系,根据此次实测的通过震中25 km长的大地电磁测深剖面,结合地热梯度、He同位素比值（³He/⁴He）、CO₂碳同位素、地震序列等资料的综合分析,发现震中地区存在两个位于不同深度的低阻体,地震发生与地幔深部岩浆活动有关;据此提出了一种新的地震发生模式——岩浆泡破裂发震模式,描述了来自地幔的基性岩浆通过向上侵入、在脆-韧性转换带附近聚集形成岩浆泡、岩浆泡破裂及岩浆泡上覆岩层中聚集能量引发岩层破裂产生地震的过程,并使来自地幔的无机成因的CO₂气在储层中形成CO₂气藏。该模式可以解释许多发生在大陆内部地震和深源地震的发生机制。     

Variation of singularity of earthquake-size distribution with respect to tectonic regime

Frequency-size relation of earthquakes in a region can be approximated by the Gutenberg-Richter law(GR). This power-law model involves two parameters: a-value measuring seismic activity or earthquake productivity, and b-value describing the relation between frequencies of small and large earthquakes.The spatial and temporal variations of these two parameters, especially the b-value, have been substantially investigated. For example, it has been shown that b-value depends inversely on differential stress. The b-value has also been utilized as earthquake precursor in large earthquake prediction.However, the physical meaning and properties of b-value including its value range still remain as an open fundamental question. We explore the property of b-value from frequency-size GR model in a new form which relates average energy release and probability of large earthquakes. Based on this new form of GR relation the b-value can be related to the singularity index(1-2/3 b) of fractal energy-probability power-law model. This model as applied to the global database of earthquakes with size M ≥ 5 from 1964 to 2015 indicates a systematic increase of singularity from earthquakes occurring on mid-ocean ridges, to those in subduction zones and in collision zones.     

Universal precursor seismicity pattern before locked-segment rupture and evolutionary rule for landmark earthquakes

Despite extensive investigations, no precursor patterns for reliably predicting major earthquakes have thus far been identified. Seismogenic locked segments that can accumulate adequate strain energy to cause major earthquakes are highly heterogeneous and low brittle. The progressive cracking of the locked segments with these properties can produce an interesting seismic phenomenon: a landmark earthquake and a sequence of smaller subsequent earthquakes (pre-shocks) always arise prior to another landmark earthquake within a well-defined seismic zone and its current seismic period. Applying a mechanical model, magnitude constraint conditions, and case study data of 62 worldwide seismic zones, we show that two adjacent landmark earthquakes reliably occur at the volume-expansion point and peak-stress point (rupture) of a locked segment; thus, the former is an identified precursor for the latter. Such a precursor seismicity pattern before the locked-segment rupture has definite physical meanings, and it is universal regardless of the focal depth. Because the evolution of landmark earthquakes follows a deterministic rule described by the model, they are predictable. The results of this study lay a firm physical foundation for reliably predicting the occurrence of future landmark earthquakes in a seismic zone and can greatly improve our understanding of earthquake generation mechanism.     

Volcanic earthquakes of Kamchatka: classification, nature of source and spatio-temporal distribution

Volcanic earthquakes on Kamchatka can be divided into two large groups: earthquakes with depths of 0–40 km generated by stresses which arise during magma migration in the Earth's crust under volcanos (the first group), and the earthquakes directly connected with the eruptions (volcanic tremor, explosive earthquakes, etc.—the second group). This paper presents a review of some energetic, spectral and spatio-temporal characteristics of the Kamchatkan volcanic earthquakes of the first group and their relationship with volcanic phenomena.

Seismicity related to volcanic activity has the following specific features: a local and predominantly swarm-like pattern of earthquake origination; iteration of earthquake swarms in the same seismically active zones; many shallow and relatively small events; a small magnitude limit (up to 5.5–6); the existence of longer-period variations of volcanic earthquake foci as compared to the tectonic one; and a comparatively high value of the slope of the earthquake recurrence plot. At the same time, similarity in behaviour of some parameters of the seismic regime during the preparation and development of eruptions and prior to large earthquakes, as well as the destruction of samples, are noted.     

The assessment of health impact caused by energy use in urban areas of China: an intake fraction–based analysis

The Indian Ocean Tsunami of December 2004 caused inundation of seawater along the Northern coast of Tamil Nadu, India, resulting in loss of 8,000 people with extensive damage to properties. The paper describes the inundation of seawater in two northern districts, namely Kancheepuram and Villupuram districts, which showed distinct patterns of inundation of seawater and run-up levels due to variations in geomorphic features. TUNAMI N2 model was used to predict the seawater inundation for earthquakes occurred in 1881 at Car Nicobar, Sumatra 2004 and a worst-case scenario. The coastal areas with beaches having gentle slope showed more inundation compared with coastal areas having varied slope and habited by sand dunes and coastal vegetation. Appreciable inundation of seawater with tsunami simulated for 1881 Car Nicobar indicated that proximity to the source plays a major role besides earthquake parameters in causing inundation. The worst-case scenario generated from subduction zone of Car Nicobar using Sumatra 2004 earthquake parameters revealed extreme vulnerability of coasts of both the districts to giant tsunamis.     

Groundwater changes in relation to seismic activity: a case study from Eskipazar (Karabuk, Turkey)

The reported study contributes to research on earthquake prediction. Between 2007 and 2009, changes were observed in two geothermal and mineral springs located in Eskipazar (～3–5 km to the north of the North Anatolian Fault Zone) in Turkey, in relation to small-magnitude earthquakes. During pre-seismic and post-seismic activities, variations were observed in the hydrogeological parameters of the spring waters. Temperature increases of 0.4–1°C were measured in one of the springs prior to three different earthquakes. There was a slight increase in the spring discharge with respect to the first earthquake, which occurred closest to the spring. This led to a reduction in electrical conductivity (EC), total dissolved solids (TDS), Ca, HCO₃, δ¹³C, Al, Mn, and Fe concentrations in the spring water, whereas tritium and Se values increased. Several days before the third earthquake, which occurred at a shallower depth, a decrease was observed in the discharge, which led to a reduction in tritium, δ¹³C and Si concentrations. These variations could be explained by changes in the mixing ratio of waters of different genesis, depending on changes in permeability, pore pressure, and flow paths of the aquifer due to regional stress changes.     

Specific variations of air temperature and relative humidity around the time of Michoacan earthquake M8.1 Sept. 19, 1985 as a possible indicator of interaction between tectonic plates

The recent development of the Lithosphere–Atmosphere–Ionosphere (LAI) coupling model and experimental data of remote sensing satellites on thermal anomalies before major strong earthquakes have demonstrated that radon emanations in the area of earthquake preparation can produce variations of the air temperature and relative humidity. Specific repeating pattern of humidity and air temperature variations was revealed as a result of analysis of the meteorological data for several tens of strong earthquakes all over the world. The main physical process responsible for the observed variations is the latent heat release due to water vapor condensation on ions produced as a result of air ionization by energetic α-particles emitted by ²²²Rn. The high effectiveness of this process was proved by the laboratory and field experiments; hence the specific variations of air humidity and temperature can be used as indicator of radon variations before earthquakes.We analyzed the historical meteorological data all over the Mexico around the time of one of the most destructive earthquakes (Michoacan earthquake M8.1) that affected the Mexico City on September 19, 1985. Several distinct zones of specific variations of the air temperature and relative humidity were revealed that may indicate the different character of radon variations in different parts of Mexico before the Michoacan earthquake. The most interesting result on the specific variations of atmosphere parameters was obtained at Baja California region close to the border of Cocos and Rivera tectonic plates. This result demonstrates the possibility of the increased radon variations not only in the vicinity of the earthquake source but also at the border of interacting tectonic plates. Recent results on Thermal InfraRed (TIR) anomalies registered by Meteosat 5 before the Gujarat earthquake M7.9 on 26 of January 2001 supports the idea on the possibility of thermal effects at the border of interacting tectonic plates.     

Observation of surface and atmospheric parameters using “NOAA 18” satellite: a study on earthquakes of Sumatra and Nicobar Is regions for the year 2014 (M ≥ 6.0)

Analysing pre-earthquake signals using satellite technology are getting importance among the scientific community, since round-the-clock survey for the wider region is possible compared to ground-based monitoring techniques. Several scientists are involved in various satellites and ground-based technologies to decode the complex physical mechanism of the earthquake process since 1980. They involved in measuring anomalous variations using space-based methodologies like EM signals, SAR interferometry, GPS for ionospheric sounding, satellite gravimetry, atmospheric sounding, Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR), radon gas and seismo-tectonic clouds. In this paper, the authors have considered surface latent heat flux (SLHF) and OLR satellite data for detailed analysis of earthquakes took place during the year 2014 in Sumatra and Nicobar Is regions. At the surface and atmospheric interface, the anomalous variations in SLHF were observed prior to the occurrence of the earthquake. Similarly, anomalous variations in OLR have been observed 3–30 days prior to the big earthquakes and it is measured above the cloud level. From the analysis, the author has found that variations in the SLHF and OLR flux can be utilized as efficient tools to identify the impending big earthquakes. SLHF and OLR variation level can give us a clue about the probable magnitude of earthquakes and also about earthquake preparation zones. Hence, by correlating the above-mentioned parameters, it is potential to key out the impending earthquakes with reasonable accuracy.

     

On the problem of destructive Iranian earthquakes and their causative faults

This article is devoted to evaluating destructive earthquakes (magnitude >6) of Iran and determining properties of their source parameters. First of all, a database of documented earthquakes has been prepared via reliable references and causative faults of each event have been determined. Then, geometric parameters of each fault have been presented completely. Critical parameters such as Maximum Credible Rupture, MCR, and Maximum Credible Earthquake, MCE, have been compiled based on the geometrical parameters of the earthquake faults. The calculated parameters have been compared to the maximum earthquake and the surface rupture which have been recorded for the earthquake faults. Also, the distance between the epicenter of documented earthquake events and their causative faults has been calculated (the distance was less than 20 km for 90% of the data). Then, the distance between destructive earthquakes (with the magnitude more than 6) and the nearest active fault has been calculated. If the estimated distance is less than 20 km and the mechanism of the active fault and the event are reported the same, the active fault will be introduced as a probable causative fault of that earthquake. In the process, all of the available geological, tectonic, seismotectonic maps, aerial geophysical data as well as remote sensing images have been evaluated. Based on the quality and importance of earthquake data, the events have been classified into three categories: (1) the earthquakes which have their causative faults documented, (2) the events with magnitude higher than 7, and (3) the events with the magnitude between 6 and 7. For each category, related maps and tables have been compiled and presented. Some important faults and events have been also described throughout the paper. As mentioned in this paper, these faults are likely to be in high seismic regions with potential for large-magnitude events as they are long, deep and bound sectors of the margins characterized by different deformation and coupling rates on the plate interface.