Quantifying the Impact of Global Climate Change on Potential Natural Vegetation

Impacts of climate change on vegetation are often summarized in biome maps, representing the potential natural vegetation class for each cell of a grid under current and changed climate. The amount of change between two biome maps is usually measured by the fraction of cells that change class, or by the kappa statistic. Neither measure takes account of varying structural and floristic dissimilarity among biomes. An attribute-based measure of dissimilarity (V) between vegetation classes is therefore introduced. V is based on (a) the relative importance of different plant life forms (e.g. tree, grass) in each class, and (b) a series of attributes (e.g. evergreen-deciduous, tropical-nontropical) of each life form with a weight for each attribute. V is implemented here for the most used biome model, BIOME 1 (Prentice, I. C. et al., 1992). Multidimensional scaling of pairwise V values verifies that the suggested importance values and attribute weights lead to a reasonable pattern of dissimilarities among biomes. Dissimilarity between two maps (V) is obtained by area-weighted averaging of V over the model grid. Using V, present global biome distribution from climatology is compared with anomaly-based scenarios for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration (2 × CO2), and for extreme glacial and interglacial conditions. All scenarios are obtained from equilibrium simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a mixed-layer ocean model. The 2 × CO2 simulations are the widely used OSU and GFDL runs from the 1980's, representing models with low and high climate sensitivity, respectively. The palaeoclimate simulations were made with CCM1, with sensitivity similar to GFDL. V values for the comparisons of 2 × CO2 with present climate are similar to values for the comparisons of the last interglacial and mid-Holocene with present climate. However, the two simulated 2 × CO2 cases are much more like each other than they are to the simulated interglacial cases. The largest V values were between the last glacial maximum and all other cases, including the present. These examples illustrate the potential of V in comparing the impacts of different climate change scenarios, and the possibility of calibrating climate change impacts against a palaeoclimatic benchmark.     

Über die mittlere lineare sukzessive Differenz und ihre Anwendung auf die Untersuchung meteorologischer Beobachtungsreihen

Zusammenfassung Eine endliche Reihe (Sequenz) wird als eine der möglichen Permutationen ihrer Glieder aufgefaßt. Es wird gezeigt, daß die Summe der absoluten Differenzen der aufeinanderfolgenden Glieder gleich ist , wo die natürliche Zahlen sind und nur von der Rangordnung der Glieder der Reihe (von der Permutation) abhängen; die _j sind von der Reihenfolge unabhängig und werden durch die Dispersion der Reihenglieder bestimmt. Die _j und die _j werden separat untersucht; der Erwartungswert der erwähnten Differenzsumme wird abgeleitet. Verschiedene bereits bekannte und auch erstmalig hier vorgeschlagene Maßzahlen werden geprüft. An Reihen jährlicher Regenmengen wird die Rolle der _j und der _j und das Verhalten der besprochenen Maßzahlen veranschaulicht.

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Summary A series ofn members can be considered as one of the possible permutations of its members. It is shown that the sum of the linear successive differences is equal to the expression , where the _j are positive integers, dependent only upon the rank-order (the permutation) of the members, while the _j are independent of the order of the succession and are determined by the dispersion of the members of the series. The factors _j and _j are separately investigated; the expected value of the sum of the linear successive differences is established. Various related statistical measures, already in usage and new ones suggested here, are discussed. Series of yearly rainfall amounts are used to show the effects of the _j and _j and to discuss the behaviour of the various measures.

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Résumé Une série, constituée parn valeurs, est regardée comme une des possibles permutations de ces valeurs. L'auteur montre que la somme des différences absolues, qui se présentent entre les valeurs consécutives de la série, est égale à l'expression . Les _j sont des nombres entiers positifs et ne dépendent que de l'ordre des membres de la série, tandis que les _j, indépendants de l'ordre, sont déterminés par la dispersion des membres. Les facteurs _j et _j sont étudiés séparément; l'espérance mathématique de la somme mentionnée est dérivée. Des paramètres statistiques déjà connus ou proposés ici pour la première fois, sont discutés. Le rôle des _j et des _j et le comportement des divers paramètres sont montrés à l'aide de séries de totaux annuels de pluies.

     

Similarity of atmospheric Reynolds shear stress and heat flux fluctuations over a rough surface

Horizontal u and vertical w velocity fluctuations have been measured together with temperature fluctuations in the atmospheric surface layer, at a small height above a wheat crop canopy. Marginal probability density functions are presented for both individual fluctuations u, w, and for the instantaneous Reynolds stress uw, and heat fluxes w and u. Probability density functions of the velocity fluctuations deviate less significantly from the Gaussian form than the probability density of temperature. There appears to be closer similarity between statistics of the instantaneous heat fluxes than between the momentum flux and either of the heat fluxes investigated. The mean momentum flux receives equal contributions from the events referred to as ejections and sweeps in laboratory boundary layers. Sweeps provide the largest contribution to the heat fluxes.     

Numerical integration errors in calculated tropospheric photodissociation rate coefficients

Tropospheric photodissociation rate coefficients (J values) were calculated for NO₂, O₃, HNO₂, CH₂O, and CH₃CHO using high spectral resolution (0.1 mm wavelength increments), and compared to the J values obtained with numerically degraded resolution (=1, 2, 4, 6, 8, and 10 nm, and several commonly used nonuniform grids). Depending on the molecule, substantial errors can be introduced by the larger increments. Thus for =10 nm, errors are less than 1% for NO₂, less than 2% for HNO₂, +6.5% to -16% for CH₂O, -6.9% to +24% for CH₃CHO, and -24% to +110% for O₃. The errors for CH₂O arise from the fine structure of its absorption spectrum, and are prevalently negative (underestimate of J). The errors for O₃, and to a lesser extent for CH₃CHO, arise mainly from under-resolving the overlap of the molecular action spectrum and the tropospheric actinic flux in the wavelength region of stratospheric ozone attenuation. The sign of those errors depends on whether the actinic flux is averaged onto the grid before or after the radiative transfer calculation. In all cases studied, grids with 2 nm produced errors no larger than 5%.     

Standard deviation of vertical two-point longitudinal velocity differences in the atmospheric boundary layer

The standard deviation of vertical two-point longitudinal velocity fluctuation differences is analyzed experimentally with eleven sets of turbulence measurements obtained at the NASA 150-m ground-winds tower site at Cape Kennedy, Florida. It is concluded that /u _*0 is proportional to (fz/u _*0)^0.22, where the coefficient of proportionality is a function of fz/u _*0 and u _*0/fL ₀. The quantities f and L₀ denote the Coriolis parameter and the surface Monin-Obukhov stability length, respectively; u _*0 is the surface friction velocity; z is the vertical distance between the two points over which the velocity difference is calculated; and zz is the mean height of the mid-point of the interval z above natural grade. The results of the analysis are valid for 20<-u _*0/fL ₀<2000.     

REGIONAL DEPENDENCY OF PRECIPITATION-ALTITUDE RELATIONSHIP IN THE SWISS ALPS

The spatial distribution of the regional long-term rate of precipitation change, P, with altitude in Switzerland is analysed. In order to eliminate the bias of point precipitation measurement, the analysis is based on precipitation sums corrected for the systematic error of precipitation measurement, particularly the wind-induced error and wetting losses. The P values indicate a large spatial heterogeneity. They show different local and regional patterns. In this respect, the effect of the main alpine ridge dividing the Swiss territory into northern and southern parts is crucial. Water budget computations indicate that the regional P values have a tendency to overestimate areal precipitation. The possible reasons are the redistribution of precipitation by wind and its accumulation in the valleys and, at the same time, the biased precipitation networks preferring location of gauges also in the valleys.     

Three-dimensional modeling of synthetic cold fronts interacting with northern Alpine foehn

Summary The effect of the Alpine orography on prototype cold fronts approaching from the west is investigated by three-dimensional numerical model simulations. The numerical experiments cover a range of parameter constellations which govern the prefrontal environment of the front. Especially, the appearance and intensity of prefrontal northern Alpine foehn varies from case to case.The behaviour of a cold front north of the Alps depends much on the prefrontal condition it encounters. It is found that prefrontal foehn can either accelerate or retard the approaching front.An important feature is the pressure depression along the northern Alpine rim that results from the southerly foehn flow. In cases where this depression compensates the eastward directed pressure gradient associated with the largescale flow, the front tends to accelerate and the foehn breaks down as soon as the front passes. In contrast, the foehn prevents the front from a rapid eastward propagation if it is connected with a strong southerly wind component.No-foehn experiments are performed for comparison, where either the mountains are removed, or the static stability is set to neutral. Also shown are effects of different crossfrontal temperature contrasts.List of Symbols c _F propagation speed of a front - x, y horizontal grid spacing (cartesian system) - , horizontal grid spacing (geographic system) - t time step - z vertical grid spacing (cartesian system) - cross-frontal potential temperature difference - _i potential temperature step at an inversion - E turbulent kinetic energy - f Coriolis parameter - FGP frontogenesis parameter (see section 2.2) - g gravity acceleration (g=9.81 m s^–2) - vertical gradient of potential temperature - h terrain elevation (above MSL) - h _i height of an inversion (h _i =1000 m MSL) - H height of model lid (H=9000 m MSL) - K _M exchange coefficient of momentum - K _H exchange coefficient of heat and moisture - longitude - N Brunt-Väisäla-frequency - p pressure - Exner function (=T/) - latitude - q _v specific humidity - R _d gas constant of dry air (R _d =287.06 J kg^–1 K^–1) - density of dry air - t time - T temperature - potential temperature - TFP thermal front parameter (see section 2.2) - u, v, w cartesian wind components - u _g ,v _g geostrophic wind components - horizontal wind vector - x, y, z cartesian coordinates Abbreviations GND (above) ground level - MSL (above) mean sea level - UTC universal time coordinated With 20 Figures     

The effects of orography on precipitation

In this paper, a model simulating the effects of topography and altitude on precipitation is presented. Topography has its maximum effect on precipitation when the angle which the wind makes with the slope direction approaches zero and the inclination of the slope is near 45°. The smaller the angle , the greater the influence of slope on precipitation. When <45°, the larger the inclination, the greater the influence of slope on precipitation and the less the difference in precipitation between the windward and the leeward slopes. When <45°, the reverse holds. But for in the range of 0°–45° and in the range 30°–60°, differences in precipitation on both the windward and leeward slopes are not so well marked and can be neglected in general. In condition of uniform slope inclination, precipitation on the windward slope increases with altitude at first and then decreases after attaining a height (H _m ) of maximum precipitation; alsoH _m is greater, the drier the air mass. When the terrain on the windward side is stepped in shape, it is possible that more than one height of maximum precipitation will occur.     

Carbonyl sulfide emissions from biomass burning in the tropics

Carbonyl sulfide emissions from biomass burning have been studied during field experiments conducted both in an African savanna area (Ivory Coast) and rice fields, central highland pine forest and savanna areas in Viet-Nam. During these experiments CO₂, CO and C₂H₂ or CH₄ have also been also monitored. COS values range from 0.6 ppbv outside the fires to 73 ppbv in the plumes. Significant correlations have been observed between concentrations of COS and CO (R ²=0.92,n=25) and COS and C₂H₂ (R ²=0.79,n=26) indicating a COS production during the smoldering combustion. COS/CO₂ emission factors (COS/CO₂) during field experiments ranged from 1.2 to 61×10^–6 (11.4×10^–6 mean value). COS emission by biomass burning was estimated to be up to 0.05 Tg S/yr in tropics and up to 0.07 Tg S/yr on a global basis, contributing thus about 10% to the global COS flux. Based on the S/C ratio measured in the dry plant biomass and the COS/CO₂ emission factor, COS can account for only about 7% of the sulfur emitted in the atmosphere by biomass burning.     

Averaging Intervals For Spectral Analysis Of Nonstationary Turbulence

We formulate a method for determining the smallest time interval Tover which a turbulence time series can be averaged to decompose it intoinstantaneous mean and random components. From the random part the method defines the optimal interval (or averaging window) AW over which this part should be averaged to obtain the instantaneous spectrum. Both T and AW vary randomly with time and depend on physical properties of the turbulence. T also depends on the accuracy of the measurements and is thus independent of AW. Interesting features of the method are its real-time capability and the non-equality between AW and T.     

The Askervein Hill Project: Mean wind variations at fixed heights above ground

This is one of a series of papers on the Askervein Hill Project. It presents results on the variations in mean wind speed at fixed heights (z) above the ground from linear arrays of anemometer posts and towers. Most of the data are for z = 10 m but some are for z = 3 m. Selected and directionally grouped data from the 55 Mean Flow runs are presented together with mean flow data from Askervein '83 Turbulence runs. Comparisons are made between the data and guideline estimates of fractional speed-up ratio at hilltop locations and between the data and MS3DJH/3 model predictions along the tower lines. There is good agreement in most cases.     

Reactions of alkoxy radicals under atmospheric conditions: The relative importance of decomposition versus reaction with O2

The reactions of alkoxy radicals determine to a large extent the products formed during the atmospheric degradations of emitted organic compounds. Experimental data concerning the decompositions, 1,5-H shift isomerizations and reactions with O₂ of several classes of alkoxy radicals are inconsistent with literature estimations of their absolute or relative rate constants. An alternative, although empirical, method for assessing the relative importance under atmospheric conditions of the reactions of alkoxy radicals with O₂ versus decomposition was derived. This estimation method utilizes the differences in the heats of reaction, (H)=(H_{decomposition}–H_{O 2 reaction}), between these two reactions pathways. For (H)[22–0.5(H_{O 2 reaction})], alkoxy radical decomposition dominates over the reaction with O₂ at room temperature and atmospheric pressure of air, while for (H)[25-0.5(H_{O 2 reaction})], the O₂ reaction dominates over decomposition (where the units of H are in kcal mol^–1). The utility and shortcomings of this approach are discussed. It is concluded that further studies concerning the reactions of alkoxy radicals are needed.     

Orbital forcing of Arctic climate: mechanisms of climate response and implications for continental glaciation

Progress in understanding how terrestrial ice volume is linked to Earths orbital configuration has been impeded by the cost of simulating climate system processes relevant to glaciation over orbital time scales (10³–10⁵ years). A compromise is usually made to represent the climate system by models that are averaged over one or more spatial dimensions or by three-dimensional models that are limited to simulating particular snapshots in time. We take advantage of the short equilibration time (10 years) of a climate model consisting of a three-dimensional atmosphere coupled to a simple slab ocean to derive the equilibrium climate response to accelerated variations in Earths orbital configuration over the past 165,000 years. Prominent decreases in ice melt and increases in snowfall are simulated during three time intervals near 26, 73, and 117 thousand years ago (ka) when aphelion was in late spring and obliquity was low. There were also significant decreases in ice melt and increases in snowfall near 97 and 142 ka when eccentricity was relatively large, aphelion was in late spring, and obliquity was high or near its long term mean. These glaciation-friendly time intervals correspond to prominent and secondary phases of terrestrial ice growth seen within the marine ¹⁸O record. Both dynamical and thermal effects contribute to the increases in snowfall during these periods, through increases in storm activity and the fraction of precipitation falling as snow. The majority of the mid- to high latitude response to orbital forcing is organized by the properties of sea ice, through its influence on radiative feedbacks that nearly double the size of the orbital forcing as well as its influence on the seasonal evolution of the latitudinal temperature gradient.     

Modeling Modern and Late Pleistocene Glacio-Climatological Conditions in the North Chilean Andes (29–30 °)

An empirical-statistical climate-glacier model is used to reconstruct Late Pleistocene climate conditions in the south-central Andes of northern Chile (29–30° S). The model was tested using modern climate data and the results compare favorably with key glaciological features presentlyobserved in this area. Using several glaciers at 29° S as casestudies, the results suggest an increase in annual precipitation( P = 580 ± 150 mm, today 400 mm), and a reduction inannual mean temperature ( T = –5.7 ± 0.7 ° C).These data suggest full glacial LGM (Last Glacial Maximum) conditionsfor the maximum glacier advances at 29° S, a scenario that is asynchronous with the timing of maximum advances north of the Arid Diagonal (18–24° S) where late-glacial climate was moderately cold but very humid.The reconstructed case study glaciers at 29° S do not allow conclusions to be drawn about the seasonality of precipitation. However, comparison with regional paleodata suggests intensified westerly winter precipitation and a stable position for the northern boundary of the westerlies at 27° S. However, the meridional precipitation gradients were much steeper than today while the core area of the Arid Diagonal remained fixed between 25–27° S.     

Bistability of the thermohaline circulation identified through comprehensive 2-parameter sweeps of an efficient climate model

The effect of changes in zonal and meridional atmospheric moisture transports on Atlantic overturning is investigated. Zonal transports are considered in terms of net moisture export from the Atlantic sector. Meridional transports are related to the vigour of the global hydrological cycle. The equilibrium thermohaline circulation (THC) simulated with an efficient climate model is strongly dependent on two key parameters that control these transports: an anomaly in the specified Atlantic–Pacific moisture flux (F_a) and atmospheric moisture diffusivity (K_q). In a large ensemble of spinup experiments, the values of F_a and K_q are varied by small increments across wide ranges, to identify sharp transitions of equilibrium THC strength in a 2-parameter space (between Conveyor On and Off states). Final states from this ensemble of simulations are then used as the initial states for further such ensembles. Large differences in THC strength between ensembles, for identical combinations of F_a and K_q, reveal the co-existence of two stable THC states (Conveyor On and Off)—i.e. a bistable regime. In further sensitivity experiments, the model is forced with small, temporary freshwater perturbations to the mid-latitude North Atlantic, to establish the minimum perturbation necessary for irreversible THC collapse in this bistable regime. A threshold is identified in terms of the forcing duration required. The model THC, in a Conveyor On state, irreversibly collapses to a Conveyor Off state under additional freshwater forcing of just 0.1 Sv applied for around 100 years. The irreversible collapse is primarily due to a positive feedback associated with suppressed convection and reduced surface heat loss in the sinking region. Increased atmosphere-to-ocean freshwater flux, under a collapsed Conveyor, plays a secondary role.     

Stability Analysis of the Climate-Vegetation System in the Northern High Latitudes

The stability of the climate-vegetation system in the northern high latitudesis analysed with three climate system models of different complexity: A comprehensive 3-dimensional model of the climate system, GENESIS-IBIS, and two Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs), CLIMBER-2 andMoBidiC. The biogeophysical feedback in the latitudinal belt 60–70° N, although positive, is not strong enough to support multiple steady states: A unique equilibriumin the climate-vegetation system is simulated by all the models on a zonal scale for present-day climate and doubled CO₂ climate.EMIC simulations with decreased insolation also reveal a unique steady state. However, the climate sensitivity to tree cover, T_F, exhibits non-linear behaviour within the models. For GENESIS-IBIS and CLIMBER-2, T_F islower for doubled CO₂ climate than for present-day climate due to a shorter snow season and increased relative significance ofthe hydrological effect of forest cover. For the EMICs, T_F is higher for low tree fraction than for high treefraction, mainly due to a time shift in spring snow melt in response to changes in tree cover. The climate sensitivity to tree coveris reduced when thermohaline circulation feedbacks are accounted for in the EMIC simulations. Simpler parameterizations of oceanic processes have opposite effects on T_F: T_F is lower in simulations with fixed SSTs and higher in simulations with mixed layer oceans. Experiments with transient CO₂ forcing show climate and vegetation not in equilibrium in the northern high latitudes at the end of the 20thcentury. The delayed response of vegetation and accelerated global warming lead to rather abrupt changes in northern vegetation cover in the first halfof the 21st century, when vegetation cover changes at double the present day rate.     

Gas-Phase Ozone Oxidation of Monoterpenes: Gaseous and Particulate Products

Atmospheric oxidation of monoterpenes contributes to formation of tropospheric ozone and secondary organic aerosol, but their products are poorly characterized. In this work, we report a series of outdoor smog chamber experiments to investigate both gaseous and particulate products in the ozone oxidation of four monoterpenes: -pinene, -pinene, ³-carene, and sabinene. More than ten oxygenated products are detected and identified in each monoterpene/O₃ reaction by coupling derivatization techniques and GC/MS detection. A denuder/filter pack sampling system is used to separate and simultaneously collect gas and aerosol samples. The identified products, consisting of compounds containing carbonyl, hydroxyl, and carboxyl functional groups, are estimated to account for about 34–50%, 57%, 29–67%, and 24% of the reacted carbon mass for -pinene, sabinene, -pinene, and ³-carene, respectively. The identified individual products account for >83%, 100%, >90%, and 61% of the aerosol mass produced in the ozone reaction of -pinene, sabinene, -pinene, and ³-carene. The uncertainty in the yield data is estimated to be ±50%. Many of the products partition between gas and aerosol phases, and their gas-aerosol partitioning coefficients are determined and reported here. Reaction schemes are suggested to account for the products observed.     

Diurnal variation of horizontal wind direction fluctuations in complex terrain at Geysers,Cal.

Horizontal diffusion in the surface layer is dependent on the standard deviation of wind direction fluctuations . Diurnal variation of this parameter in complex terrain was studied for the July 1979 Geysers, Cal., experiment using data from a network of 11 short meteorological towers in the 25 km² Anderson Creek watershed Valley side slopes are roughly 20 ° and maximum terrain difference is about 1 km.Values of for wind directions sampled for one hour at a height of 10 m are about 35 ° during the daytime. They slowly decrease to about 20 ° by 8 to 10 p.m. as stability increases but wind speeds are still relatively high. After 10 p.m. the drainage flow sets in at most stations, with speeds of 1 to 2 m s^-1, and average increases to about 30° during the period 11 p.m. to 6 a.m. In general, highest values of at night are associated with lowest values of wind speed and greatest static stability. This enhancement of by the terrain suggests that horizontal diffusion at night always conforms to that expected during nearly neutral stabilities. That is, Pasquill class D diffusion applies to the horizontal component all night in complex terrain.     

The behaviour of a mixed-layer model of the convective boundary layer coupled to a big leaf model of surface energy partitioning

Daily mean values of the Priestley-Taylor coefficient, ¯, are derived from a simple model of the daily growth of a convective boundary layer. For a particular control set of driving environmental variables, ¯ is related to the prescribed bulk surface resistance, r_S by 1/¯ = 1/₀ + mr_S for parameters ₀ and m. The dependence of the parameters ₀ and m on weather is explored and a potential use of this linear relation to provide information about regional values of r_S is indicated.     

Studies of the atmospheric stability characteristics during the solar eclipse of February 16, 1980

Observations made with a monostatic sodar and from a 120 m instrumented tower have been used to study the variations in the atmospheric boundary layer at Tarapur (19° 50 N, 72° 41 E) during the solar eclipse of February 16, 1980. Atmospheric instability was reduced below normal values during the eclipse but the atmosphere at no time became stable.