鄱阳湖流域洪水变化特征及气候影响研究

为探讨鄱阳湖流域洪水过程的变化特征和规律,系统分析流域洪水量级、频率、发生时间的变化特征,利用核密度估计分析洪水发生率的非平稳性,运用月频率法评价洪水集聚性特征,并探讨低频气候因子对洪水变化的影响。研究表明：① 鄱阳湖流域各水文站点年、秋季和冬季最大洪水及POT超阈值洪水以增加趋势为主。② 洪水发生率年内集聚性显著,主要集中在4~7月;年际洪水发生次数呈现非平稳泊松分布,洪水发生率出现明显的年际集聚性特征。③ ENSO、IOD对下年洪水量级及洪水发生次数有明显影响,洪水发生次数与年最大洪水量级异常现象通常是ENSO和IOD协同作用结果。     

新疆塔河流域洪水量级、频率及峰现时间变化特征、成因及影响

采用塔里木河流域（塔河流域）8个水文站及相应气象站数据,全面分析了洪水发生量级、频率和峰现时间等特征,研究洪水发生成因及其影响。结果表明：1980s中后期塔河流域气温与降水持续增加,整个塔河流域年及季节洪峰流量普遍呈上升趋势,大部分在1980s中后期发生突变。1980s中期以后塔河流域年及季节洪峰流量呈持续增加或者显著增加趋势,量级位于整个观测时期均值之上,处于洪水“丰富”期。“丰富”期暴雨型和升温型洪水发生次数及造成的灾害损失均呈显著增加趋势,引起严重洪灾损失的洪水也集中在这一时期,且多由暴雨型洪水引发。大量级洪水（最大三场洪水及重现期大于10年的洪水）多集中发生在1990年之后,并且易引发多个水文站点同时出现。     

60年来洞庭湖区进出湖径流特征分析

采用集中度与集中期、M-K趋势检验法、变差系数法等方法对洞庭湖入湖径流河流（荆江三口、湖南四水）和出湖径流（城陵矶）年径流量序列进行分析。结果显示：① 洞庭湖区径流集中期为每年6~7月份,最大径流出现时间为6月底7月初;径流集中期合成向量方向介于103.2~190.2°之间,均能够反映各河流进出湖径流量最大值出现的月份。② 径流变差系数介于0.194~0.761之间,说明径流年际变率大。各河流径流极值比均在0.6以上,径流量衰减较为明显。③ 从径流的丰枯交替规律来看,湖南四水水量分配相对较为平均。荆江三口以藕池口丰水年和枯水年概率最大,分别占到32.79%和57.38%,径流年际变化较为剧烈,不利于水资源的合理利用。     

EFFECT OF DAMS ON MOUNTAINOUS BEDROCK RIVERS

This study examines the adjustment of river systems in the Golan Heights to reservoir construction in small basaltic mountainous catchments where total water flow is impounded, and discusses comparisons with the effects of large dams on alluvial rivers. Annual rainfall ranges from 500 mm to 900 mm, and no major springs are found in the area. About 3/4 of total runoff is in the form of floods caused by rainstorms. The 11 dams receive drainage from about 20% of the total catchment, and a third of the total runoff. Changes in the river channels were studied at 28 field stations. Flood marks provided peak stage levels for largest season discharge, and 8 nearby hydrometric stations provided a continuous hydrological record. Bed material was sampled at each cross-section site. The main effect of river impoundment is a sharp decrease in flood peaks below the reservoirs to about one-third of their previous natural regime. The channel cross-sectional area decreased, but no temporal adjustment can be established, as most of the reservoirs were built in the last 5–8 years. Channel-flow hydraulics are competent enough to transport the suspended material, but evidence of aggradation was found in the channel reaches close to the dams. Bedload transport and the size of transported cobbles and boulders decreased downstream from the dams. Increased vegetation cover downstream from the dams was the most pronounced effect. Adjustment of the fluvial system to dam building in mountainous streams seems to be less sensitive than in alluvial channels. [Key words: fluvial geomorphology, dams, water reservoirs, environmental changes, Israel.]     

新疆水文水资源变化及对区域气候变化的响应

基于全疆8条代表性河流近50年的地表径流、气温和降水数据,采用Mann-Kendall趋势检验和突变检测法,对各条河流地表径流、年均气温和年降水进行了长期趋势检验和突变滗分析,同时对径流与气温、降水之间的变化关系以及水文极端事件洪水的发生频次和洪峰流量进行了分析.结果表明,20世纪80年代中期以来伞疆各地气候一致表现为气温升高和降水增多,其中北疆地区变化最为显著,南疆其次,东疆最小.受气温、降水变化影响,河流径流发生年际和年内分布变化.大部分河流自20世纪90年代初水量显著增多,有春汛提前、夏汛推后和洪峰流量增大的现象,其变化特征与河流补给类型密切相关.全疆洪水发生频次增多、洪峰流最增大.气候变暖已对区域水文循环产生重要影响.     

新疆水文水资源变化及对区域气候变化的响应

Based on the surface runoff, temperature and precipitation data over the last 50 years from eight representative rivers in Xinjiang, using Mann-Kendall trend and jump detection method, the paper investigated the long-term trend and jump point of time series, the surface runoff, mean annual temperature and annual precipitation. Meanwhile, the paper analyzed the relationship between runoff and temperature and precipitation, and the flood frequency and peak flow. Results showed that climate of all parts of Xinjiang conformably has experienced an increase in temperature and precipitation since the mid-1980s. Northern Xinjiang was the area that changed most significantly followed by southern and eastern Xinjiang. Affected by temperature and precipitation variation, river runoff had changed both inter-annually and intra-annually. The surface runoff of most rivers has increased significantly since the early 1990s, and some of them have even witnessed the earlier spring floods, later summer floods and increasing flood peaks. The variation characteristics were closely related with the replenishment types of rivers. Flood frequency and peak flow increased all over Xinjiang. Climate warming has had an effect on the regional hydrological cycle.     

塔里木河流域突发性洪水初步研究

突发性洪水是干旱区河流重要的水文事件，塔里木河流域突发性洪水主要包括暴雨突发性洪水和冰川湖崩决洪水，本文例举了发生在上游支流的两种类型突发性洪水，对其发生、发展进行了比较分析，同时，分析了不同类型不同支流发生的突发性洪水对干流的影响。     

Chemical composition of waters and the phytoplankton of the lakes within the delta of the Selenga river

Field observations showed that the characteristics of chemical composition of waters and the development of plankton algae in the lakes within the delta of the Selenga river are determined by their flowage. The most open Lake Nekipelovskoe communicates with the Selenga outlets throughout a year, and Lake Zavernyaikha only at the period of an open channel. Lake Semenovskoe and Lake Khlystov Zaton are located in the islands and are isolated from the outlets. According to composition of main ions, the lakes under investigation refer to the hydrocarbonate class, the calcium group. The sum of ions in the water of Lake Nekipelovskoe approaches the one in the Selenga (86?221 mg/dm³), and the highest sums of ions were recorded in the wintertime in the lakes isolated from the outlets (446?743 mg/dm³). The lakes of the delta are characterized by a high trophicity. The maximum concentrations of total phosphorus in Lake Nekipelovskoe and Lake Zavernyaikha were 68 and 122 μg mg/dm³, and in Lake Semenovskoe and Lake Khlystov Zaton ?0.8 and ?0.63 μg mg/dm³, respectively. The most intense development of algae is observed in Lake Zavernyaikha, which is due to the high population of Baikal endemics. Lake Zavernyaikha showed a close negative correlation between the concentration of NO ₃ ^? , mineral phosphorus and phytoplankton biomass; the correlation coefficient was ?0.8 and ?0.63, respectively. The lakes exhibited increased contents readily hydrolysable organic matter, and a decrease in dissolved oxygen concentration in winter; hydrogen sulfide was repeatedly recorded in Lake Khlystov Zaton. The water quality in the lakes during the springtime varies from “quite clean” to “weakly polluted”; at low-water periods, especially in winters, it can drop to the category of “exceedingly dirty”. The water quality of the Selenga can be influenced by the lakes during spring floods when material accumulated during the wintertime is transported to the river outlets and further to Lake Baikal.     

Estimating extreme flood magnitude in bedrock-influenced channels using representative reach-based channel resistance data

Extreme flood events are considered by many researchers to be very important in controlling the development of semi‐arid bedrock‐influenced river systems. Accurate gauging of such events is often impossible, however, as gauges are drowned and often damaged during the event. A methodology for estimating flood discharge for bedrock‐influenced channels is presented that reconstructs hydrometric characteristics of the peak flow and relates these to the roughness character of the river channel in question. The method is evaluated using peak water‐surface slope data relating to the extreme floods of February 2000 along the Sabie and Letaba rivers, located respectively in the Mpumalanga and Northern Provinces, South Africa. The data, in the form of strandline measurements, were taken at hydraulically relevant points along the long profile of both rivers. The resultant data are utilised together with published high flow channel resistance figures, based on the channel morphology of the Sabie and Letaba rivers, to generate peak flow estimates for a number of locations along both rivers. Comparisons are made between the frictional discharge peak flow estimates, velocity‐area and hydrologic estimates of peak flow. These comparisons indicate that the method can produce discharge estimates with an accuracy of ±10% and ± 35% respectively.     

Landscape Changes and Increasing Flood Frequency in China's Poyang Lake Region*

Jiangxi Province in southeastern China contains Poyang Lake, the largest freshwater lake in China. Poyang Lake and the lower sections of the major Jiangxi rivers flowing into the lake often flood during the early summer months. Floodwater can be several meters above the surrounding lowlands during the most severe flood events. Levees at the margins of Poyang Lake and along the Jiangxi rivers provide flood protection for about 10 million people. The number of severe floods in this region has increased rapidly during the past few decades, resulting in catastrophic levee failures. The three factors likely responsible for the increasing frequency of severe floods are (1) land reclamation and levee construction and (2) lake sedimentation, both of which reduce lake volume, and (3) increasing Changjiang water level, which slows Poyang Lake drainage.     

珠江三角洲洪水变化及洪水风险与保险

珠江三角洲经济发达,河网密布,洪水问题一直比较突出。原因不仅在于这一区域内水系交错、堤围众多、洪水时空分布不均,还在于伴随该区域经济发展及受人类活动影响的洪水变化。人们对利益与洪水风险的取向直接决定了本区域洪水灾害损失的程度和抗御洪灾的能力。在各种防洪减灾的工程和非工程措施中,洪水保险是值得重视并应尽快开展的工作。     

天山北坡“96.7”洪水致灾原因分析

１９９６年７月中，下旬，天山北坡发生了特大洪水，其洪峰之高，洪量之大为历史上所罕见，形成了建国以来新疆从未有过的特大洪灾，本文综合实地考察结果，在对洪水特点分析基础上，结合对本次洪水致灾过程的研究，详尽分析了天山北坡“９６．７”洪水致灾原因。     

基于贝叶斯模型平均的全球洪水中长期预报评估研究

筛选全球5839个水文站逐日径流数据,采用超阈值采样法提取洪水发生频率及时间,将各季节最大日流量作为季节洪水量级,以优选的多个大尺度气候因子的最佳前置月份序列作为潜在预报因子,基于贝叶斯模型平均法构建全球尺度洪水中长期预报模型,并利用均方误差技术指数（MSESS）评价模型的预报效果。结果表明：全球范围内,洪水量级和频率模拟预报效果合格（0.6>MSESS>0.2）的水文站点占比分别为48%和28%;利用前置季节气候因子数据,驱动所构建的洪水中长期预报模型,有效预报了2020年鄱阳湖流域洪水量级将异常偏高。     

Landscape Changes and Increasing Flood Frequency in China's Poyang Lake Region*

Abstract

Jiangxi Province in southeastern China contains Poyang Lake, the largest freshwater lake in China. Poyang Lake and the lower sections of the major Jiangxi rivers flowing into the lake often flood during the early summer months. Floodwater can be several meters above the surrounding lowlands during the most severe flood events. Levees at the margins of Poyang Lake and along the Jiangxi rivers provide flood protection for about 10 million people. The number of severe floods in this region has increased rapidly during the past few decades, resulting in catastrophic levee failures. The three factors likely responsible for the increasing frequency of severe floods are (1) land reclamation and levee construction and (2) lake sedimentation, both of which reduce lake volume, and (3) increasing Changjiang water level, which slows Poyang Lake drainage.     

Hydrology and water resources variation and its response to regional climate change in Xinjiang

Based on the surface runoff, temperature and precipitation data over the last 50 years from eight representative rivers in Xinjiang, using Mann-Kendall trend and jump detection method, the paper investigated the long-term trend and jump point of time series, the surface runoff, mean annual temperature and annual precipitation. Meanwhile, the paper analyzed the relationship between runoff and temperature and precipitation, and the flood frequency and peak flow. Results showed that climate of all parts of Xinjiang conformably has experienced an increase in temperature and precipitation since the mid-1980s. Northern Xinjiang was the area that changed most significantly followed by southern and eastern Xinjiang. Affected by temperature and precipitation variation, river runoff had changed both inter- annually and intra-annually. The surface runoff of most rivers has increased significantly since the early 1990s, and some of them have even witnessed the earlier spring floods, later summer floods and increasing flood peaks. The variation characteristics were closely related with the replenishment types of rivers. Flood frequency and peak flow increased all over Xinjiang. Climate warming has had an effect on the regional hydrological cycle.     

黄河下游游荡性河道小水致灾研究

20世纪80年代中期以来,黄河下游游荡性河道的洪水灾害是在下游水量明显减少、洪峰流量也不断减小的情况下发生的。即使是水量比较小的普通洪水,也能造成下游滩区大面积受淹、控导工程决口、桥梁被冲毁、房屋倒塌等严重灾害。小水致灾的形成机理主要是:河道游荡,引发“横河、斜河”;小水淤积,河床抬高,行洪能力下降;人与河床争地,造成滩区阻塞。     

Catastrophic flood effects in alpine/foothill fluvial system (a case study from the Sudetes Mts, SW Poland)

Depositional effects of two great floods in the Nysa drainage basin have been studied: the alluvial forms and deposits of channels and floodplains. Three types of bars and one overbank form were found in the mountain streams, and four types of bars and three types of overbank forms have been distinguished in main rivers. A specific spatial succession of depositional forms was recognized along the mountain streams, however, no analogous phenomena were noted within the main river valleys. Several types of bars and alluvial lithofacies have been regarded as characteristic effects of the catastrophic flood. The study indicates that the Nysa river is close to the threshold of metamorphosis to a typical braided fluvial system.     

考虑水文趋势影响的珠江流域非一致性洪水风险分析

本文基于两参数对数正态分布和指数趋势模型建立了非一致性洪水频率计算模型,分析了珠江流域28个测站年最大日流量序列趋势性对洪水频率分析的影响。结果表明：（1）从空间分布来看,珠江流域中北部年最大日流量序列呈增加趋势,东部和南部年最大日流量序列呈减小趋势;从时间变化来看,1981-2010年年最大日流量呈显著性增加趋势的站点数较多,占总站点数的20-25%,1966-1990年年最大日流量呈显著性减小趋势的站点数较多,占总站数的25-30%;（2）珠江流域洪水放大因子(未来T年一遇设计流量与现在T年一遇设计流量比值)和重现期都受到趋势性的显著影响。西江中北部和北江洪水放大因子大于1,意味着原有的防洪工程设计标准可能无法满足未来防洪需求,存在防洪隐患;洪水放大因子较大和较小的地区集中在西江干流和东江干流;（3）非一致性条件下,同一场洪水过去、现在和未来重现期是不同的。非平稳性条件下,珠江流域近20年来20-50年一遇洪水发生站次相比平稳性条件下在减小。     

Is flooding in South Asia getting worse and more frequent?

South Asia is drained by some of the most flood‐prone rivers in the world. Flooding during the monsoon season is the most recurring, widespread and disastrous natural hazard in South Asia that results in enormous social, economic and environment consequences every year. Several massive floods have occurred in the recent decades causing huge economic losses and human suffering. On average, the total damage is close to USD 1 billion annually. To answer the question whether flooding in South Asia is getting worse and more frequent, all available data were considered: the annual peak discharge data for major rivers, post‐1985 information on floods from the global archive of large floods and palaeoflood records from nine Indian rivers. According to the global archive data, 372 large and 55 extreme flood events have occurred since 1985. Although there is no significant trend, all types of data point to clustering of large floods. Palaeoflood records show that modern floods (post‐1950) have higher flood levels than the late Holocene floods. Notwithstanding the limitations of data, there is enough evidence to conclude that (1) incidences of flood‐generating extreme rainfall event are rising and (2) human interventions have made the recent floods more destructive.     

东南沿海中小流域平原区洪水淹没模拟

我国东南沿海中小流域洪水过程短,调节能力差,洪水灾害严重。而该区洪水灾害主要发生在流域中下游冲洪积平原上,为此本文以我国东南沿海甬江流域奉化江下游为实验区,探讨了将遥感和地理信息系统应用于中小流域洪水淹没模拟研究的方法和途径。开展了基于遥感和GIS的流域降雨径流和洪水演进模型的研究,建立了基于数字高程模型的洪水淹没范围和灾情评估模型。最后利用遥感、遥测和GIS信息,对实验区洪水淹没和灾情评估进行了验证分析,并取得了较满意的成果,从而为中小流域防洪减灾决策研究提供了经验。