Considering potential seismic sources in earthquake hazard assessment for Northern Iran

Located on the Alpine-Himalayan earthquake belt, Iran is one of the seismically active regions of the world. Northern Iran, south of Caspian Basin, a hazardous subduction zone, is a densely populated and developing area of the country. Historical and instrumental documented seismicity indicates the occurrence of severe earthquakes leading to many deaths and large losses in the region. With growth of seismological and tectonic data, updated seismic hazard assessment is a worthwhile issue in emergency management programs and long-term developing plans in urban and rural areas of this region. In the present study, being armed with up-to-date information required for seismic hazard assessment including geological data and active tectonic setting for thorough investigation of the active and potential seismogenic sources, and historical and instrumental events for compiling the earthquake catalogue, probabilistic seismic hazard assessment is carried out for the region using three recent ground motion prediction equations. The logic tree method is utilized to capture epistemic uncertainty of the seismic hazard assessment in delineation of the seismic sources and selection of attenuation relations. The results are compared to a recent practice in code-prescribed seismic hazard of the region and are discussed in detail to explore their variation in each branch of logic tree approach. Also, seismic hazard maps of peak ground acceleration in rock site for 475- and 2,475-year return periods are provided for the region.     

A modeling study on the controlling factors of seismic source distribution and their strength index

A model, in which various seismic environmental factors are involved, has been developed in the paper on the bases of relevant data. The environmental factors include the crust structure, lithological conditions, fault plan attitude, the crust stress state, pore-fluid pressure and geothermal conditions, etc. The effect of each of the factors on the tectonic movement energy index has been analyzed. The model calculation results indicate that shear fracture energy of a fault generally increases with depth; it reached a peak value at a certain depth, then turns gradually attenuated. Of all the factors, the effects of pore-fluid pressure and geothermal conditions on the energy index are of prominence. High pore-fluid pressure and high temperature circumstance may result in decline of the peak value of the shear fracture energy curve, making the depths of the peak value and of the bell-waist value deepened. Such effects restrict strong seismic events, but suitable for micro-seismic activity and/or fault creep. The lower limit of focal depth under such an environment is relatively deep. Contrarily, low pore-fluid pressure and low geothermal temperature circumstance result in increase of the peak value of the shear fracture energy curve, and the curve becoming steep. The later circumstance is favorable to the formation of locked segment where possesses high strength and high-energy accumulation. If these two kind of segments are arranged interactively along a fault zone, such arrangement would boost the energy transition among the segments, forming mechanical circumstance of energy highly accumulated in one segment with adjacent segment(s) less-locked. Such contrast of the strength and energy would provide conditions for strong earthquakes with high stress drop. An analysis of the northwest segment of the Honghe fault has provided some evidence for the modeling results. Foundation item: Chinese Joint Seismological Science Foundation (No. 9507424).     

Delineation of seismic zonation using fractal modeling in West Yazd province,Central Iran

This study is an attempt to identify seismic zones utilizing number-size (N-S) and concentration-area (C-A) fractal models in the West Yazd province, Central Iran. The analysis was based on the earthquakes’ magnitude and Quaternary faults’ density. Fault density map was generated and classified by fractal modeling. The result indicates that the main fault densities correlate with Dehshir and Eqlid faults. Furthermore, the areas with relatively large earthquake magnitudes are located in the SE and NE parts of the region. The Quaternary faults’ density and earthquake magnitudes were weighted based on the results of the fractal modeling. Finally, weighted maps were combined and classified to show that Dehshir fault has the main role for seismicity in this area. Comparison between results derived via the fractal modeling and conventional seismic zonation map is satisfactory. Furthermore, fractal modeling approach distinguishes different seismic zones with higher accuracy in smaller areas. For validation of results, earthquakes since 2012 were collected and associated with seismic zones. These earthquakes which are correlated with major seismic zones are mainly located near the Dehshir and main Zagros faults.     

基于GIS的地下管网抗震分析系统

本文提供了一个地下管道震害快速预测方法,给出了供水管网和供气管网地震影响范围判定分析方法以及关键环节判定方法,完成了一个基于Arc View GIS的多功能的地下管网抗震分析系统的研制。     

Delineation of potential seismic sources for seismic zoning of Iran

A total of 235 potential seismic sources in Iran and neighboring regions are delineated based on available geological, geophysical, tectonic and earthquake data for seismic hazard assessment of the country. In practice, two key assumptions are considered; first, the assumption of earthquake repeatedness, implying that major earthquakes occur preferentially near the sites of previous earthquakes; second, the assumption of tectonic analogy, which implies that structures of analogous tectonic setting are capable of generating same size earthquakes. A two-step procedure is applied for delineation of seismic sources: first, demarcation of seismotectonic provinces; second, determination of potential seismic sources. Preferentially, potential seismic sources are modeled as area sources, in which the configuration of each source zone is controlled, mainly, by the extent of active faults, the mechanism of earthquake faultings and the seismogenic part of the crust.     

A uniform catalog of earthquakes for seismic hazard asesment in Iran

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Studies on seismic source

During the period of 1999~2002, the Chinese seismologists made a serious of developments in the study on seismic sources including observations, experiments and theory. In the field of observation, the methods of the accuracy location of earthquake sources, the inversion of seismic moment tensor and the mechanism of earthquake source are improved and developed. A lot of important earthquake events are studied by using these methods. The rupture processes of these events are inverted and investigated combined with the local stress fields and the tectonic moment by using the measurements of surface deformation. In the fields of experiments and theory, many developments are obtained in cause of seismic formation, condition of stress and tectonics, dynamics of earthquake rupture, rock fracture and nucleation of strong earthquakes.     

Studies on seismic source

During the period of 1999-2002, the Chinese seismologists made a serious of developments in the study on seis-mic sources including observations, experiments and theory. In the field of observation, the methods of the accu-racy location of earthquake sources, the inversion of seismic moment tensor and the mechanism of earthquake source are improved and developed. A lot of important earthquake events are studied by using these methods. The rupture processes of these events are inverted and investigated combined with the local stress fields and the tec-tonic moment by using the measurements of surface deformation. In the fields of experiments and theory, many developments are obtained in cause of seismic formation, condition of stress and tectonics, dynamics of earthquake rupture, rock fracture and nucleation of strong earthquakes.     

A time probabilistic approach to seismic landslide hazard estimates in Iran

Understanding where seismically induced landslides are most likely to occur is crucial in land use planning and civil protection actions aimed at reducing property damage and loss of life in future earthquakes. For this purpose an approach proposed by Del Gaudio et al. [1] has been applied to the whole Iranian territory to provide the basis to assess location and temporal recurrence of conditions of seismic activation of slope failures, according to the Newmark's model [2]. Following this approach, occurrence probabilities for different levels of seismic shaking in a time interval of interest (50 years) were first obtained through a standard hazard estimate procedure. Then, empirical formulae in the form proposed by Jibson et al. [3] and calibrated for the main seismogenic Iranian regions were used to evaluate the slope critical acceleration (Ac)_x for which a prefixed probability exists that, under seismic shakings, Newmark's displacement D_N exceeds a threshold×corresponding to landslide triggering conditions. The obtained (Ac)_x values represent the minimum slope resistance required to limit the probability of landslide seismic triggering within the prefixed value. A map reporting the spatial distribution of these values gives comparative indications on regional different exposure of slopes to shaking capable of inducing failures and provides a reference for hazard estimate at local scale. The obtained results show that the exposure to landslide seismic induction is maximum in the Alborz Mountains region, where critical accelerations up to ∼0.1 g are required to limit the probability of seismic triggering of coherent type landslides within 10% in 50 years.     

脉冲编码震源的匹配冲击技术

常规Vibroseis可控震源Chirp扫描的地震响应存在明显的旁瓣效应,二元m-序列伪随机扫描的解码地震剖面中存在严重的相关噪声,而基于伪随机编码的匹配扫描方法可有效压制解码地震剖面中的相关噪声,提高了地震记录的信噪比.为了将匹配伪随机编码方法应用到冲击式震源中,提出了基于脉冲编码震源的匹配冲击技术.以匹配扫描方法为理论基础给出了匹配冲击信号的编码与解码过程,以有限元差分法对匹配冲击技术和常规线性扫描冲击技术进行了地震数值模拟.结果表明,匹配冲击的综合解码地震剖面中,不存在线性扫描冲击解码地震剖面中能量较强的相关噪声干扰,剖面具有很高的信噪比和分辨率.地震波激发采集对比实验验证了匹配冲击技术在压制相关噪声及远偏移距地震道随机噪声方面相比线性扫描冲击技术所具有的优势.     

炸药震源的地震安全性野外实验研究

选定一块场地,针对相同井深、不同药量的情况,进行炸药震源的地震安全性野外实验,用Etna数字强震动加速度仪记录每次爆破时房屋振动的加速度.在选定房屋结构的地基、窗台、屋顶等3个位置分别布设了仪器,记录结构响应的加速度波形.为了与《爆破安全规程》的参考标准对应,将加速度值转换成速度值,并对位于屋顶的结构响应速度峰值进行分析.通过对结构响应、安全距离、频率的研究,分析建筑物结构对每次爆破的响应,并对其安全性进行讨论.     

A modeling study on the controlling factors of seismic source distribution and their strength index——Practical analyses of the seismic environmental factors of the Honghe fault

IntroductionThe tectono-physical background and dynamic environmental features of strong earthquakes have long been studied from different viewpoints by seismologists both in domestic and abroad. Many controlling factors include the crust structure, lithological environment, tectonic conditions, the stress state, heat flow distribution and hydrodynamic effects at depth, etc. Some of the studies have established a foundation for researching and recognizing the spatial distribution of potential …     

Cepstrum analysis of seismic source characteristics

This paper introduces the concept of cepstrum.By investigating the difference in source characteristics between earthquakes and explosions the paper infers the manifestation of source difference in various variable domains,and seeks for effective means to express such source difference.Extending the approach of source discrimination from time and frequency domain to the cepstrum domain,the paper proposes a method of cepstrum analysis for recognizing the characteristics of seismic sources and establishes criteria for identifying the type of seismic sources.Cepstrum analysis on some recent earthquakes and explosions has been made,and the result shows that the method is quite effective in practice.     

震源数值模拟

在土木工程中,经常遇到波动问题,不同的震源可产生不同的波动,本文用傅氏变换法求解波动方程,对胀缩源,剪切源及方向力源进行了数值模拟,并讨论了各自的特点.     

井间地震物理模拟研究

井间地震资料具有极高的分辨率,但是,其波场十分复杂,特别是有效一次反射波场能量较弱,且往往被管波等强相干干扰淹没,波场的识别与分离难度较大.地震物理模拟技术是认识复杂地震波场的有效手段.我们通过单一地质体模型、复杂地质体模型和真实井间模拟模型等多种逼真地质模型的物理模拟,揭示了井间地震观测下直达波、透射波、反射波、折射波,多次波和导波等各类波型的特征.物理模拟试验表明,在炮检域平面上分析直达波的信噪比与能量分布,可以使处理人员对旅行时的误差有更直观的认识.所以识别初至与拾取旅行时间时,不仅要在共震源点道集(CSG)上分析拾取,而且还要在共炮检距道集(COG)上分析拾取,这样就提高了直达波识别的可靠性与拾取时间的精度.     

Markovian modeling of seismic damage accumulation

Analysis of civil structures at the scale of life‐cycle requires stochastic modeling of degradation. Phenomena causing structures to degrade are typically categorized as aging and point‐in‐time overloads. Earthquake effects are the members of the latter category this study deals with in the framework of performance‐based earthquake engineering (PBEE). The focus is structural seismic reliability, which requires modeling of the stochastic process describing damage progression, because of subsequent events, over time. The presented study explicitly addresses this issue via a Markov‐chain‐based approach, which is able to account for the change in seismic response of damaged structures (i.e. state‐dependent seismic fragility) as well as uncertainty in occurrence and intensity of earthquakes (i.e. seismic hazard). The state‐dependent vulnerability issue arises when the seismic hysteretic response is evolutionary and/or when the damage measure employed is such that the degradation increment probabilistically depends on the conditions of the structure at the time of the shock. The framework set up takes advantage also of the hypotheses of classical probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, allowing to separate the modeling of the process of occurrence of seismic shocks and the effect they produce on the structure. It is also discussed how the reliability assessment, which is in closed‐form, may be virtually extended to describe a generic age‐ and state‐dependent degradation process (e.g. including aging and/or when aftershock risk is of interest). Illustrative applications show the options to calibrate the model and its potential in the context of PBEE. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

非均匀介质中地震波应力场的WNAD方法及其数值模拟

通过对近似解析离散化(NAD)方法的分析,给出了一种求解声波和弹性波方程的带权重的近似解析离散化(WNAD)方法,并用WNAD方法、Lax-Wendroff 修正格式(LWC)和二阶中心差分方法计算了二维波动方程初值问题的应力场数值误差.结果表明WNAD方法具有更高的数值精度.用WNAD方法、LWC和四阶交错网格法对二维非均匀介质中弹性波传播的应力场进行了数值模拟.应力场快照和地表地震记录表明,即使是在粗网格条件下WNAD方法的模拟结果仍无可见的数值频散和源噪声.另一方面,由于WNAD方法同时计算了地震位移和梯度场,使得应力的计算更为便捷和精确,而且WNAD方法中波位移梯度局部连接关系的使用使得应力在间断处能够自动近似地满足应力连续性.     

地震尺度下碳酸盐岩储层的岩石物理建模方法(英文)

碳酸盐岩油藏的强非均质性以及孔隙结构的复杂性,使得作为连接油藏参数与地震参数重要桥梁的岩石物理模型,以及作为油藏预测和定量表征最有效工具的流体替换成为岩石物理建模的难点与重点。在碳酸盐岩储层复杂孔隙结构与地震尺度下碳酸盐岩储层非均质性分析基础上,研究采用岩石网格化方法,将地震尺度下非均质碳酸盐岩储层岩石划分为具有独立岩石参数的均质岩石子体,根据岩石孔隙成因与结构特征采用不同岩石物理模型分步计算岩石子块干岩石弹性模量,并根据不同孔隙连通性进行流体替换,计算饱和不同流体岩石弹性模量。基于计算的岩石子块弹性模量,采用Hashin-Shtrikman-Walpole弹性边界计算理论方法实现地震尺度下碳酸盐岩储层弹性参数计算。通过对含有不同类型孔隙组合碳酸盐岩储层模型的弹性模量进行计算与分析,明确不同孔隙对岩石弹性参数的影响特征,模拟分析结果与实际资料认识一致。     

2.5维地震波数值模拟评述：声波模型

本文的目的是对基于声波模型的2.5维地震波数值模拟工作进行评述,以便能够找出其存在的问题和解决这些问题的可能途径,根据定义,2.5维问题是三维问题中的一种特殊情况,其特点是:(1)介质参数沿走向保持为常数;(2)场源具有球对称性;(3)场源和接收点均位于垂直于走向的直线上,与三维数值模拟问题不同,2.5维数值模拟问题分为两部分:(1)在垂直于走向的平面内用数值方法解相应的微分方程,这在实质上是二维问题;(2)采用积分变换或其他方法处理来自于计算平面外的影响,这实际上是将一个特殊的三维问题转化成为了无限多个(在离散情况下是有限多个)二维问题的叠加,与二维模型相比,2.5维模型能得到计算平面内的精确地震波振幅信息,鉴于声波模型是反射地震偏移成像理论和应用研究中的基本数据模型,所以对2.5维声波数值模拟的研究具有重要的意义,根据对计算平面外传播效应的处理方式可以将到目前为止提出的2.5维声波数值模拟方法分为四类:(1)几何射线法;(2)滤波校正法;(3)Fourier变换法;(4)近似波动方程法.其中,几何射线法具有直观、快速的特点,但是在焦散区内失效,滤波校正法只在均匀介质条件下严格成立,在一般条件下只是一种精度难以估计的近似,Fourier变换法是一种经典方法,其研究程度已经相当深入,该方法的基本思想是通过沿走向的Fourier变换将2.5维问题转化为有限多个二维问题,从而,对反变换的数值实现直接影响到该方法的精度和效率,近似波动方程法的宗旨是针对2.5维波动问题建立专门的波动方程,与Fourier变换法相比,近似波动方程法等同于一个二维数值模拟,因此可以大大地降低计算量,但是,根据笔者所掌握的资料,到目前为止提出的几个近似波动方程不是具有很大的振幅误差,就是难以进行数值计算,因此,有必要对近似波动方程的形式进行进一步的研究.