On the future navigability of Arctic sea routes: High-resolution projections of the Arctic Ocean and sea ice

The rapid Arctic summer sea ice reduction in the last decade has lead to debates in the maritime industries on the possibility of an increase in cargo transportation in the region. Average sailing times on the North Sea Route along the Siberian Coast have fallen from 20 days in the 1990s to 11 days in 2012–2013, attributed to easing sea ice conditions along the Siberian coast. However, the economic risk of exploiting the Arctic shipping routes is substantial. Here a detailed high-resolution projection of ocean and sea ice to the end of the 21st century forced with the RCP8.5 IPCC emission scenario is used to examine navigability of the Arctic sea routes. In summer, opening of large areas of the Arctic Ocean previously covered by pack ice to the wind and surface waves leads to Arctic pack ice cover evolving into the Marginal Ice Zone. The emerging state of the Arctic Ocean features more fragmented thinner sea ice, stronger winds, ocean currents and waves. By the mid 21st century, summer season sailing times along the route via the North Pole are estimated to be 13–17 days, which could make this route as fast as the North Sea Route.     

IPCC气候情景下全球海平面长期趋势变化

利用CCSM3 (Community Climate System Model version 3)气候系统模式模拟20世纪海平面变化,在IPCC SRES A2 (IPCC,2001)情景假设下预测21世纪全球海平面长期趋势变化。模拟显示20世纪海平面上升约4.0 cm,且存在0.004 8 mm/a2的加速度,这个结果仅为热盐比容的贡献。在A2情景假设下,21世纪海平面上升存在很大的区域特征,呈纬向带状分布;总体上北冰洋上升大,南大洋高纬度海区上升小,大西洋上升值比太平洋的大;整个21世纪全球平均比容海平面上升了约30 cm,且呈加速上升的趋势。同时发现,中深层水温度和盐度变化对区域比容海平面变化具有重要贡献。北太平洋增暖主要集中在上层700 m以内,而北大西洋的增暖可达2 500 m的深度,南大洋南极绕极流海区热盐变化则是发生在整个深度。     

Future sea-level rise and its early detection by satellite remote sensing

During the past 100 years, sea-level appears to have risen by 10–15cm, probably due to the combined effects of thermal expansion of ocean-surface waters and net melting of glaciers and ice caps, associated with a small increase in global temperatures. This trend will almost certainly continue and accelerate if steadily increasing levels of carbon dioxide and other “greenhouse” gases in the atmosphere cause warming of the magnitude widely predicted by climate modellers. Rising air temperatures will cause increased melting from glaciers and ice caps, and rising sea-water temperatures will cause thermal expansion of the oceans. Moreover, warmer ocean waters could melt and weaken the many floating ice shelves that surround Antarctica, permitting increased ice discharge from glaciers that flow into them. All of these factors would cause sea-level to rise, and this paper presents and estimate of the total sea-level rise that could occur during the next century.If, as predicted by many climate models, global temperatures increase by an average of about 3°C, there is a good probability that sea-level will rise approximately 1m by the year 2100. Ultimately, such a rise would become very apparent to coastal populations, but initial change would be slow. Consequently, it is important to devise and “early warning system” for prompt detection of changes that will precede a detectable rise in sea level. These include: surface temperatures on land, oceans and ice sheets; sea-ice distribution; extent of summer melting on the polar ice sheets; areal extent and surface elevations of the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica. All of these parameters can be measured from space by satellites that are operating now or are planned for launch during the next few years     

Quantifying the contribution of natural variability to September Arctic sea ice decline

Arctic sea ice extent has been declining in recent decades. There is ongoing debate on the contribution of natural internal variability to recent and future Arctic sea ice changes. In this study, we contrast the trends in the forced and unforced simulations of carefully selected global climate models with the extended observed Arctic sea ice records. The results suggest that the natural variability explains no more than 42.3% of the observed September sea ice extent trend during 35 a(1979–2013) satellite observations, which is comparable to the results of the observed sea ice record extended back to 1953(61 a, less than 48.5% natural variability). This reinforces the evidence that anthropogenic forcing plays a substantial role in the observed decline of September Arctic sea ice in recent decades. The magnitude of both positive and negative trends induced by the natural variability in the unforced simulations is slightly enlarged in the context of increasing greenhouse gases in the 21st century.However, the ratio between the realizations of positive and negative trends change has remained steady, which enforces the standpoint that external forcing will remain the principal determiner of the decreasing Arctic sea ice extent trend in the future.     

The effects of resolving the Canadian Arctic Archipelago in a finite element sea ice model

Though narrow straits may have a strong influence on the large-scale sea ice mass balance, they are often crudely represented in coarse resolution sea ice models. Unstructured meshes, with their natural ability to fit boundaries and locally increase the mesh resolution, propose an alternative framework to capture the complex oceanic areas formed by coasts and islands. In this paper, we develop a finite element sea ice model to investigate the sensitivity of the Arctic sea ice cover features to the resolution of the narrow straits constituting the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. The model is a two-level dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice model, including a viscous-plastic rheology. It is run over 1979–2005, forced by daily NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. Confronting qualitatively numerical experiments with observations shows a good agreement with satellite and buoys measurements. Due to its simple representation of the oceanic interactions, the model overestimates the sea ice extent during winter in the southernmost parts of the Arctic, while the Baffin Bay and Kara Sea remain ice-covered during summer. In order to isolate the benefits from resolving the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, a numerical experiment is performed where we artificially close the archipelago. Focusing on the large-scale sea ice thickness pattern, no significant change is found in our model, except in the close surroundings of the archipelago. However, the local and short-term influences of the ice exchanges are nonnegligible. In particular, we show that the ice volume associated to the Canadian Arctic Archipelago represents 10% of the Northern Hemisphere sea ice volume and that the annual mean ice export towards Baffin Bay amounts to 125 km³ yr⁻¹, which may play an important role on the convective overturning in the Labrador Sea.     

基于HY-2A散射计数据的极区海冰范围反演方法及其评估

A sea ice extent retrieval algorithm over the polar area based on scatterometer data of HY-2A satellite has been established.Four parameters are used for distinguishing between sea ice and ocean with Fisher's linear discriminant analysis method.The method is used to generate polar sea ice extent maps of the Arctic and Antarctic regions of the full 2013–2014 from the scatterometer aboard HY-2A(HY-2A-SCAT) backscatter data.The time series of the ice mapped imagery shows ice edge evolution and indicates a similar seasonal change trend with total ice area from DMSP-F17 Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder(SSMIS) sea ice concentration data.For both hemispheres,the HY-2A-SCAT extent correlates very well with SSMIS 15% extent for the whole year period.Compared with Synthetic Aperture Radar(SAR) imagery,the HY-2A-SCAT ice extent shows good correlation with the Sentinel-1 SAR ice edge.Over some ice edge area,the difference is very evident because sea ice edges can be very dynamic and move several kilometers in a single day.     

Sea ice–ocean coupling using a rescaled vertical coordinate z

Realistic representation of sea ice in ocean models involves the use of a non-linear free-surface, a real freshwater flux and observance of requisite conservation laws. We show here that these properties can be achieved in practice through use of a rescaled vertical coordinate “z^*” in z-coordinate models that allows one to follow undulations in the free-surface under sea ice loading. In particular, the adoption of “z^*” avoids the difficult issue of vanishing levels under thick ice.Details of the implementation within MITgcm are provided. A high resolution global ocean sea ice simulation illustrates the robustness of the z^* formulation and reveals a source of oceanic variability associated with sea ice dynamics and ice-loading effects. The use of the z^* coordinate allows one to achieve perfect conservation of fresh water, heat and salt, as shown in extended integration of coupled ocean sea ice atmospheric model.     

地球系统模式FIO-ESM对北极海冰的模拟和预估

评估了地球系统模式FIO-ESM(First Institute of Oceanography-Earth System Model)基于CMIP5(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5)的历史实验对北极海冰的模拟能力,分析了该模式基于CMIP5未来情景实验在不同典型浓度路径(RCPs,Representative Concentration Pathways)下对北极海冰的预估情况。通过与卫星观测的海冰覆盖范围资料相比,该模式能够很好地模拟出多年平均海冰覆盖范围的季节变化特征,模拟的气候态月平均海冰覆盖范围均在卫星观测值±15%范围以内。FIO-ESM能够较好地模拟1979-2005年期间北极海冰的衰减趋势,模拟衰减速度为每年减少2.24×104 km2,但仍小于观测衰减速度(每年减少4.72×104 km2)。特别值得注意的是:不同于其他模式所预估的海冰一直衰减,FIO-ESM对21世纪北极海冰预估在不同情景下呈现不同的变化趋势,在RCP2.6和RCP4.5情景下,北极海冰总体呈增加趋势,在RCP6情景下,北极海冰基本维持不变,而在RCP8.5情景下,北极海冰呈现继续衰减趋势。     

Modeling the evolution of the world ocean ice cover in the 20th and 21st centuries

The current state of the simulation of sea ice cover as a component of new-generation global climate models is considered. Results from the model ensemble simulation of the observed world ocean ice cover, including its evolution in the 20th century, are analyzed, and projection of possible changes in the 21st century for three scenarios of anthropogenic forcing of the climate system are described. Unresolved problems and priorities for sea ice modeling are discussed.     

变暖背景下北极海冰减少在冬季北半球高纬大陆降雪增加中的作用

过去的几个冬季中,北美、欧洲、西伯利亚和东亚大部分地区经历了冷冬和强降雪,而这与北极海冰的快速减少有关。尽管北极海冰减少在冷冬和强降雪中的作用仍存在争议,但这种新兴的气候反馈在未来变暖背景下是否会持续仍值得关注。中等排放情境下的气候模式模拟结果揭示,欧洲东北部、亚洲中部北部、北美北部的冬季降雪增加会成为贯穿21世纪的一个稳健的特征。21世纪这些区域冬季降雪增加的主要原因是北极秋季海冰的减少（很大的外部强迫）,而冬季北极涛动的变化（北半球主要的自然变化形态）对降雪增加的作用很小。这一结果不仅体现在多模式平均上,而且每个单独模式的结果依然如此。我们认为海冰-降雪之间的强反馈作用可能已经出现,并且在接下来的几十年中这种强反馈作用可能会增强,北半球高纬地区的强降雪事件也会增加。     

Simulation of changes in global ozone and atmospheric dynamics in the 21st century with the chemistry-climate model SOCOL

The solar climate ozone links (SOCOL) three-dimensional chemistry-climate model is used to estimate changes in the ozone and atmospheric dynamics over the 21st century. With this model, four numerical time-slice experiments were conducted for 1980, 2000, 2050, and 2100 conditions. Boundary conditions for sea-surface temperatures, sea-ice parameters, and concentrations of greenhouse and ozone-depleting gases were set following the IPCC A1B scenario and the WMO A1 scenario. From the model results, a statistically significant cooling of the model stratosphere was obtained to be 4–5 K for 2000–2050 and 3–5 K for 2050–2100. The temperature of the lower atmosphere increases by 2–3 K over the 21st century. Tropospheric heating significantly enhances the activity of planetary-scale waves at the tropopause. As a result, the Eliassen-Palm flux divergence considerable increases in the middle and upper stratosphere. The intensity of zonal circulation decreases and the meridional residual circulation increases, especially in the winter-spring period of each hemisphere. These dynamic changes, along with a decrease in the concentrations of ozone-depleting gases, result in a faster growth of O₃ outside the tropics. For example, by 2050, the total ozone in the middle and high latitudes approaches its model level of 1980 and the ozone hole in Antarctica fills up. The superrecovery of the model ozone layer in the middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres occurs in 2100. The tropical ozone layer recovers far less slowly, reaching a 1980 level only by 2100.     

Geophysics of sea ice in the Baltic Sea: A review

With improved observation methods, increased winter navigation, and increased awareness of the climate and environmental changes, research on the Baltic Sea ice conditions has become increasingly active. Sea ice has been recognized as a sensitive indicator for changes in climate. Although the inter-annual variability in the ice conditions is large, a change towards milder ice winters has been detected from the time series of the maximum annual extent of sea ice and the length of the ice season. On the basis of the ice extent, the shift towards a warmer climate took place in the latter half of the 19th century. On the other hand, data on the ice thickness, which are mostly limited to the land-fast ice zone, basically do not show clear trends during the 20th century, except that during the last 20 years the thickness of land-fast ice has decreased. Due to difficulties in measuring the pack-ice thickness, the total mass of sea ice in the Baltic Sea is, however, still poorly known. The ice extent and length of the ice season depend on the indices of the Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation. Sea ice dynamics, thermodynamics, structure, and properties strongly interact with each other, as well as with the atmosphere and the sea. The surface conditions over the ice-covered Baltic Sea show high spatial variability, which cannot be described by two surface types (such as ice and open water) only. The variability is strongly reflected to the radiative and turbulent surface fluxes. The Baltic Sea has served as a testbed for several developments in the theory of sea ice dynamics. Experiences with advanced models have increased our understanding on sea ice dynamics, which depends on the ice thickness distribution, and in turn redistributes the ice thickness. During the latest decade, advance has been made in studies on sea ice structure, surface albedo, penetration of solar radiation, sub-surface melting, and formation of superimposed ice and snow ice. A high vertical resolution has been found as a prerequisite to successfully model thermodynamic processes during the spring melt period. A few observations have demonstrated how the river discharge and ice melt affect the stratification of the oceanic boundary layer below the ice and the oceanic heat flux to the ice bottom. In general, process studies on ice–ocean interaction have been rare. In the future, increasingly multidisciplinary studies are needed with close links between sea ice physics, geochemistry and biology.     

Less ice on the Baltic reduces the extent of hypoxic bottom waters and sedimentary phosphorus release

A significant relation was established between the maximum extent of sea ice covering the Baltic Sea and the hypoxic area in the deeper parts of the Baltic Proper, with a lag of 2 years: for the period 1970–2000, less ice was correlated with a smaller anoxic area. At the same time, maximum ice extent is subject to a long-term climate-related decline, due to higher air temperatures and an increased frequency of westerly winds. Together, this suggests that the hypoxic area will decrease in the coming decades. Internal sedimentary phosphorus-loading is closely related to the hypoxic area and hence would decrease as well. Wind strength variability did not have a significant additive effect to the variance in hypoxic area already explained by sea ice extent. The observed lag is in agreement with the order of magnitude of estimated residence times in the shallower sub-basins feeding the Baltic Proper, where ice extent varies most.     

On the recent warming of the southeastern Bering Sea shelf

During the last decade, the southeastern Bering Sea shelf has undergone a warming of 3 °C that is closely associated with a marked decrease of sea ice over the area. This shift in the physical environment of the shelf can be attributed to a combination of mechanisms, including the presence over the eastern Bering Sea shelf of a relatively mild air mass during the winter, especially from 2000 to 2005; a shorter ice season caused by a later fall transition and/or an earlier spring transition; increased flow through Unimak Pass during winter, which introduces warm Gulf of Alaska water onto the southeastern shelf; and the feedback mechanism whereby warmer ocean temperatures during the summer delay the southward advection of sea ice during winter. While the relative importance of these four mechanisms is difficult to quantify, it is evident that for sea ice to form, cold arctic winds must cool the water column. Sea ice is then formed in the polynyas during periods of cold north winds, and this ice is advected southward over the eastern shelf. The other three mechanisms can modify ice formation and melt, and hence its extent. In combination, these four mechanisms have served to temporally and spatially limit ice during the 5-year period (2001–2005). Warming of the eastern Bering Sea shelf could have profound influences on the ecosystem of the Bering Sea—from modification of the timing of the spring phytoplankton bloom to the northward advance of subarctic species and the northward retreat of arctic species.     

Visualising the spatial extent of predicted coastal zone inundation due to sea level rise in south-west Western Australia

Visualising coastal zone inundation is crucial for both a quick assessment of coastal vulnerability and a full understanding of possible implications to population, infrastructure and environment. This study presents a simple but effective method of assessing the spatial extent of coastal zone inundation due to predicted sea level rise using commonly available elevation and image data as well as GIS software. The method is based on the geometrical principle of matching the raised sea level with the corresponding elevation contour line on land. Results for a test area along the south-west coast of Western Australia (∼200 km of coast line) show that a sea level rise of less than 0.5 m over the 21st century will have only minor impact but will become important when added to an extreme sea level event (e.g. storm surge). Both century-scale (∼0.5 m) based on tide gauge records and larger (>few metres) longer-term sea level rise predictions based on the melt of ice covered areas show essentially the same areas that are most vulnerable. Furthermore, the effectiveness of the method is demonstrated by the detection of areas that can be protected by relatively small flood protective structures at river and estuary entrances, thus providing valuable information for policy makers and local councils.     

Simulation of climate changes in the 20th–22nd centuries with a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model

The results of numerical experiments with a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model on the reproduction of climate changes during the 20th century and on the simulation of possible climate changes during the 21st–22nd centuries according to three IPCC scenarios of variations in the concentrations of greenhouse and other gases, as well as the results of the experiments with the doubled and quadruple concentrations of CO₂, are considered. An increase in the near-surface air temperature during the 20th century and the features of the observed climate changes, such as warming in 1940–1950 and its slowing down in 1960–1970, are adequately reproduced in the model. According to the model, the air-temperature increase during the 22nd century (as compared to the end of the 20th century) varies from 2 K for the most moderate scenario to 5 K for the warmest scenario. This estimate is somewhat lower than the expected warming averaged over the data of all models presented in the third IPCC report. According to model data, in the 22nd century, under all scenarios, at the end of summer, a complete or almost complete sea-ice melting will occur in the Arctic. According to the model, by the year 2200, the sea level will vary by 20 to 45 cm as compared to the level at the end of the 20th century.     

The BCI criterion for the initiation of breaking process in Boussinesq-type equations wave models

The Breaking Celerity Index (BCI) is proposed as a new wave breaking criterion for Boussinesq-type equations wave propagation models (BTE).The BCI effectiveness in determining the breaking initiation location has been verified against data from different experimental investigations conducted with incident regular and irregular waves propagating along uniform slope [Utku, M. (1999). “The Relative Trough Froude Number. A New Criteria for Wave Breaking”. Ph.D. Dissertation, Dept. of Civil and Enviromental Engineering, Old Dominion University, Norfolk, VA; Gonsalves Veloso dos Reis, M.T.L. (1992). “Characteristics of waves in the surf zone”. MS Thesis, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Liverpool., Liverpool; Lara, J.L., Losada, I.J., and Liu, P.L.-F. (2006). “Breaking waves over a mild gravel slope: experimental and numerical analysis”. Journal of Geophysical Research, VOL 111, C11019] and barred beaches [Tomasicchio, G.R., and Sancho, F. (2002). “On wave induced undertow at a barred beach”. Proceedings of 28th International Conference on Coastal Engineering, ASCE, New York, 557–569]. The considered experiments were carried out in small-scale and large-scale facilities. In addition, one set of data has been obtained by the use of the COBRAS model based upon the Reynolds Averaged Navier Stokes (RANS) equations [Liu, P.L.-F., Lin, P., Hsu, T., Chang, K., Losada, I.J., Vidal, C., and Sakakiyama, T. (2000). “A Reynolds averaged Navier–Stokes equation model for nonlinear water wave and structure interactions”. Proceedings of Coastal Structures ‘99, Balkema, Rotterdam, 169–174; Losada, I.J., Lara, J.L., and Liu, P.L.-F. (2005). “Numerical simulation based on a RANS model of wave groups on an impermeable slope”. Proceedings of Fifth International Symposium WAVES 2005, Madrid].Numerical simulations have been performed with the 1D-FUNWAVE model [Kirby, J.T., Wei, G., Chen, Q., Kennedy, A.B., and Dalrymple, R.A. (1998). “FUNWAVE 1.0 Fully Nonlinear Boussinesq Wave Model Documentation and User's Manual”. Research Report No CACR-98-06, Center for Applied Coastal Research, University of Delaware, Newark]. With regard to the adopted experimental conditions, the breaking location has been calculated for different trigger mechanisms [Zelt, J.A. (1991). “The run-up of nonbreaking and breaking solitary waves”. Coastal Engineering, 15, 205–246; Kennedy, A.B., Chen, Q., Kirby, J.T., and Dalrymple, R.A. (2000). “Boussinesq modeling of wave transformation, breaking and run-up. I: 1D”. Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal and Ocean Engineering, 126, 39–47; Utku, M., and Basco, D.R. (2002). “A new criteria for wave breaking based on the Relative Trough Froude Number”. Proceedings of 28th International Conference on Coastal Engineering, ASCE, New York, 258–268] including the proposed BCI.The calculations have shown that BCI gives a better agreement with the physical data with respect to the other trigger criteria, both for spilling and plunging breaking events, with a not negligible reduction of the calculation time.     

Variations of temperature and hydrologic regimes of the region of Ladoga Lake catchment basin in the 20th and 21st centuries according to data of modern climate models

In the region of the Ladoga Lake catchment basin, we perform data analysis on a set of different modern climate models with different Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios in the 20th and 21st centuries; this set includes global models such as ECHAM4/OPYC3 (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Germany), HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Coupled Model, England), and RCAO (Rossby Centre Regional Atmosphere-Ocean) models. Two variants of the boundary conditions for these climate models (Rossby Center of Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, SMHI) are used. We present the results of a diagnosis of the model-predicted near-surface temperature (T), precipitation (P), evaporation (E), and water budget (P-E) in the Ladoga Lake catchment based on their comparison with empirical data in twentieth century. We obtain scenario estimates of the variations of temperature and hydrologic regimes of Ladoga Lake catchment when IPCC IS92a, A2, and B2 scenarios are fulfilled, describing the prognostic growth of anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosol to the atmosphere, and discuss the recommendations for their use.     

Sediment transport by sea ice in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas: Increasing importance due to changing ice conditions?

Sediment-laden sea ice is widespread over the shallow, wide Siberian Arctic shelves, with off-shelf export from the Laptev and East Siberian Seas contributing substantially to the Arctic Ocean's sediment budget. By contrast, the North American shelves, owing to their narrow width and greater water depths, have not been deemed as important for basin-wide sediment transport by sea ice. Observations over the Chukchi and Beaufort shelves in 2001/02 revealed the widespread occurrence of sediment-laden ice over an area of more than 100,000 km² between 68 and 74°N and 155 and 170°W. Ice stratigraphic studies indicate that sediment inclusions were associated with entrainment of frazil ice into deformed, multiple layers of rafted nilas, indicative of a flaw-lead environment adjacent to the landfast ice of the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas. This is corroborated by buoy trajectories and satellite imagery indicating entrainment in a coastal polynya in the eastern Chukchi Sea in February of 2002 as well as formation of sediment-laden ice along the Beaufort Sea coast as far eastward as the Mackenzie shelf. Moored upward-looking sonar on the Mackenzie shelf provides further insight into the ice growth and deformation regime governing sediment entrainment. Analysis of Radarsat Synthetic Aperture (SAR) imagery in conjunction with bathymetric data help constrain the water depth of sediment resuspension and subsequent ice entrainment (>20 m for the Chukchi Sea). Sediment loads averaged at 128 t km^–2, with sediment occurring in layers of roughly 0.5 m thickness, mostly in the lower ice layers. The total amount of sediment transported by sea ice (mostly out of the narrow zone between the landfast ice edge and waters too deep for resuspension and entrainment) is at minimum 4×10⁶ t in the sampling area and is estimated at 5–8×10⁶ t over the entire Chukchi and Beaufort shelves in 2001/02, representing a significant term in the sediment budget of the western Arctic Ocean. Recent changes in the Chukchi and Beaufort Sea ice regimes (reduced summer minimum ice extent, ice thinning, reduction in multi-year ice extent, altered drift paths and mid-winter landfast ice break-out events) have likely resulted in an increase of sediment-laden ice in the area. Apart from contributing substantially to along- and across-shelf particulate flow, an increase in the amount of dirty ice significantly impacts (sub-)ice algal production and may enhance the dispersal of pollutants.     

Changes in the climate and sea ice of the Northern Hemisphere in the 20th and 21st centuries from data of observations and modeling

The shrinking of the area occupied by sea ice in the Northern Hemisphere accelerated at the end of the 1990s, when the record minima of the summer area were successively noted, and its absolute minimum was observed in September 2007. Such a radical decrease is ahead of the projections of global models and provokes interest in the reliability of model calculations of the future of Arctic sea ice. The results of an analysis of the relation between the warming in the Arctic and the ice extent shrinkage from data of observations and modeling by an ensemble of global climate models are presented.