苏北浅滩“怪潮”灾害预警报体系建设的几点思考

受东海前进波、黄海旋转波以及苏北沿岸流的共同作用,当东海前进潮波与黄海旋转潮波在前行过程中达到某一谐振状态,并正好与南通沿海滩涂的特殊的"巨掌"辐射沙脊地形配合,就有可能产生苏北浅滩"怪潮"。文章针对这一现象,从"怪潮"预警报体系建设的现状、存在的问题等方面进行认真思考并提出合理化建议,对苏北浅滩"怪潮"防灾减灾工作具有一定的参考价值。     

苏北浅滩辐射沙洲高低潮时误差特征分析及成因探讨

根据地处苏北浅滩辐射沙洲的洋口港海洋站2011年1月至2013年12月共3年的验潮资料,计算了高低潮时实况与对应的天文潮高低潮时的误差,分析误差的月际分布、提前或滞后量分布等特征,并对引起高低潮时误差的原因进行了初步探讨。分析表明:苏北浅滩辐射沙洲高低潮时误差具有明显的月际分布,且呈准正态分布;受天气系统影响时,辐射沙洲高低潮时误差最高可超过1 h,需要引起海洋环境预警报和涉海作业等人员的足够重视。     

创新海洋灾害预警报服务方式探索与实践

试图结合浙江省在0908号台风"莫拉克"海洋防灾减灾和预警服务工作的实践,探索海洋灾害预警报和应急服务的新路子,以满足各级政府和社会公众对海洋灾害预警报服务日益提高的需求.     

基于哨兵2号卫星遥感影像的2018年苏北浅滩漂浮绿藻时空分布特征研究

黄海浒苔绿潮自2007年以来连年暴发,但对漂浮绿藻在其源地—苏北浅滩的分布、发生和发展过程仍缺乏精细刻画。本文主要采用哨兵2号卫星遥感影像,对2018年苏北浅滩的漂浮绿藻信息进行提取,结合地形、微波+红外融合海表温度和CCMP海面风场数据,分析了影响漂浮绿藻时空分布的重要环境因子。结果表明:漂浮绿藻于5月23日在苏北浅滩南部首次通过遥感影像被探测到,在6月逐渐向北发展扩大,在7月中旬消失。漂浮绿藻最早可追溯至浅滩中心紫菜养殖筏架区边缘,而后沿潮沟形成宽度为10～200 m、断续绵延数十千米的条带。在黄海绿潮发展过程中,浅滩持续向北及外海输送漂浮绿藻。在浅滩以北,漂浮绿藻的分布和漂移与海面风向一致。本研究结果可为黄海绿潮的早期预警和防控提供依据。     

南黄海灾害地质因素及分区

尝试性地将南黄海灾害地质因素分为4大类。同时参考地貌沉积界线和其他因素将南黄海分成4个灾害地质区：即海岸带、苏北浅滩、海州湾和南黄海东部灾害地质区，并时各灾害地质区进行了定性评价，苏北浅滩灾害地质区是研究区内灾害地质环境最不稳定的区域。     

海区预报中心海洋灾害预警报服务模式创新探索——以北海区为例

海区预报中心作为国家海洋预报系统的重要组成部分,承担着海区海洋环境观测预报和海洋灾害预警,为海区海洋防灾减灾、执法管理、科研调查、应急管理以及海上搜救等提供技术支撑的重要职责。文章以北海区为例,在分析海区预报中心海洋灾害预警报服务现状和存在的主要问题的基础上,结合国家和海区海洋事业发展需求及现有预警报服务水平和能力,提出创新海区海洋灾害预警报服务模式的基本原则、总体目标,并给出实现创新目标需要解决的关键问题和需要建立、完善的关键业务技术系统。     

海区预报中心海洋灾害预警报服务模式创新探索

海区预报中心作为国家海洋预报系统的重要组成部分,承担着海区海洋环境观测预报和海洋灾害预警,为海区海洋防灾减灾、执法管理、科研调查、应急管理以及海上搜救等提供技术支撑的重要职责。文章以北海区为例,在分析海区预报中心海洋灾害预警报服务现状和存在的主要问题的基础上,结合国家和海区海洋事业发展需求及现有预警报服务水平和能力,提出创新海区海洋灾害预警报服务模式的基本原则、总体目标,并给出实现创新目标需要解决的关键问题和需要建立、完善的关键业务技术系统。     

黄海绿潮研究:回顾与展望

自2007年以来,南黄海海域连年发生大规模绿潮(green tides),至2018年已连续12年出现。大规模绿潮对南黄海西部沿海一线的景观、环境和养殖业造成了严重破坏,已经成为黄海海域一类常态化的生态灾害问题。每年夏季,苏、鲁沿海一线地方政府都要投入大量人力物力,对海滩上堆积的绿藻进行收集和处理。针对绿潮问题,我国政府组织相关学者,围绕绿潮起源、成因、危害、监测和防控进行了大量调查和研究工作。经过多年研究,在黄海绿潮原因种及其鉴定方法、黄海绿潮起源地与早期发展过程、影响黄海绿潮的关键因素等方面已经有了比较系统、深入的认识,确认了黄海绿潮的原因种为浒苔(Ulva prolifera),发现黄海绿潮主要起源于南黄海西部的苏北浅滩海域,基本阐明了浅滩区绿潮早期发展的关键过程。浒苔自身的生物学特性、苏北浅滩独特的海域环境特征,以及浅滩区的养殖活动是影响黄海绿潮形成的关键要素。但是,在绿潮原因种浒苔的最初来源、绿潮的生态效应,绿潮演变趋势以及绿潮防控对策等方面仍需进一步开展研究工作。为验证黄海绿潮成因方面的科学认识,对绿潮防控工作提供思路和技术保障,青岛海洋科学与技术国家实验室设立了鳌山科技创新计划项目"近海生态灾害发生机理与防控策略",将黄海绿潮作为一项重要生态灾害问题开展研究,旨在进一步阐明绿潮成因,为绿潮防控提供坚实的科学依据。     

东营市海洋观测预报体系建设及海洋灾害预警报服务模式初步探讨

东营市海洋环境预报中心是东营市人民政府设立的全面履行海洋观测预报和海洋灾害预警的公益事业单位,承担着东营海洋环境观测预报和海洋灾害预警,为东营市海洋防灾减灾、海洋执法管理、科研调查、应急管理以及海上搜救等提供技术支持和保障的重要职责。文章在分析东营市海洋观测预报的现状和存在问题的基础上,依据《海洋观测预报管理条例》相关要求,结合东营海洋事业发展需求及现有海洋灾害预警报服务水平和能力,提出了建设东营市海洋观测预报体系及海洋灾害预警报服务模式的基本原则、总体目标,并给出了实现总体目标过程中需要解决的关键问题和需要建设和完善的关键业务技术平台、系统。     

苏北浅滩浅水分潮特征研究

应用高分辨率网格和高精度的苏北浅滩地形数据,利用非结构有限体积模型FVCOM,精细化地模拟了苏北浅滩潮汐主要特征,研究了浅水分潮M4、MS4和M6的主要特征,并与前人的研究成果做了比较。本文结果显示M4和MS4分潮潮波传播特征类似,浅滩内存在3个旋转潮波系统,南侧小庙洪水道处为逆时针旋转,浅滩北侧为顺时针和逆时针旋转系统各1个。对于M6分潮,本文的结果显示存在3个无潮点,2个为逆时针,1个为顺时针。M4分潮振幅在近岸处最大能达到14cm以上,MS4分潮振幅比M4略小,M6振幅最小,仅能达到M4分潮振幅的20%左右。为了验证浅滩沙脊地貌对当地浅水分潮的影响,本文进一步在平滑地形的基础上重新模拟主要浅水分潮M4,结果表明水道和沙脊地貌参与了当地浅水分潮无潮点的形成,并且浅滩的坡度是影响振幅大小的重要因素。     

Model of the post-Cenozoic evolution of the cryolithozone of the shelf of the western part of the Laptev Sea

The analysis of the structure of the cryolithozone, facies, and thicknesses of the Quaternary sediments and the results of the physicochemical mathematical modeling of the modern shelf of the western part of the Laptev Sea support the influence of the Late Pleistocene glaciations on the heat conditions and the distribution of the permafrost in the area. A ～200-m thick glacier formed under aerial conditions from atmospheric precipitation represented the metamorphosed snow cover. According to the modeling, the long-living (from 60?50 to 10?4 ky) glacier reduced the thickness of the permafrost rocks in the reviewed shelf area for 280–360 m. The Holocene marine transgression additionally decreased the thickness from 50–140 m on the inner shelf to 220–350 m on the outer shelf. The modern submarine cryolithozone 450-0 m thick is wide-spread in the studied region from the coast to the shelf boundary (isobaths of 130–140 m), where it pinches out at a distance of ～380 km from the coast at a depth of ～250 m above the sea level.     

Investigation of the mechanism of the long-term evolution of the carbon cycle in the ecosystem of the Sevastopol bay

We analyze the components of the carbon system of the Sevastopol bay waters and the balance of main sediment-forming substances using the data of field investigations in 1998–2008. The interannual variations of total inorganic carbon and the equilibrium partial pressure of carbon dioxide in the bay water are noted. An increase in the flux of carbon dioxide into the bay and in the content of organic carbon in bottom sediments is revealed, and an explanation of this phenomenon is given. The priority accumulation of organic carbon in the sediments of the bay is established. We assess the interannual variation in the relative abundances of organic and inorganic carbon as an index of the carbon cycle stability.     

Contemporary state of the investigation of the influence of the discharge of rivers on the hydrologic structure of the Black Sea

We generalize and analyze the state of investigations of the influence of river waters on the hydrologic structure of the Black Sea. Specific features of the water, regime and hydrography of rivers flowing into the sea, data on the discharge of rivers, and intrayear and interyear variability of the discharge are presented. We discuss and analyze works studying the transformation of river waters, routes of desalinized sea waters, and their influence on the thermohaline structure and dynamic regime of the sea. Translated by Peter V. Malyshev and Dmitry V. Malyshev     

Modelling of the ecosystem of the Black-Sea shelf zone near the estuary of the Danube

We analyze the results of numerical calculations performed according to the three-dimensional interdisciplinary model of an ecological system of the Black-Sea shelf zone near the estuary of the Danube. The complete system of equations of hydrothermodynamics is solved together with transport equations of the advection-diffusion-reaction type used to describe the transformation of a substance (nitrogen) between the components of the characteristic vectors of the ecosystem: plankton, detritus, and biogenic elements (nitrates). We describe the distinctive features of the circumcontinental distribution of components obtained as a result of numerical experiments and present arguments for the conclusion that the ecosystem of the Danube estuary water area plays the role of a buffer zone between the press of the Danubian biogenic pollutions and the neighbouring areas of the shelf zone and open sea. Translated by Peter V. Malyshev and Dmitry V. Malyshev     

Dynamics of the ice cover and peculiarities of the ice transportation of the sediments at the tidal flats of the Kandalaksha Gulf of the White Sea

Ten years of semistationary studies of the interaction of the ice cover and the coastal relief of the Kandalakhsa Gulf in the White Sea allowed us to reveal the peculiarities of these processes in the warm and cold years and the mechanisms of the origination of ice forms, including ice tents, which govern the character of the tidal flats. Three dynamic fast ice zones are distinguished by their geomorphological location, morphology, and ice dynamics. The dependence of the mechanisms and volumes of the enrichment of the fast ice in the sediments on the coastal zone??s relief was established. At the coast of the Kindo Peninsula (Velikaya Salma Strait), the ice mostly contains fine-sandy sediments. Coarser sediments, including boulders, are occasional and frozen into the ice at the contact of the fast ice and the bottom. At the expense of the ice??s spreading by 4?C6 times in the warm years and 2?C4 times in the cold years, several thousand tons of sediments mostly from the tidal flat??s surface (100?C700 m³ from 1 km of coast in the wide tidal flats and <50 m³ on the steep coasts) are delivered to the water area.     

Relationship between the path of the Kuroshio in the south of Japan and the path of the Kuroshio Extension in the east

A relationship between paths of the Kuroshio and Kuroshio Extension (KE) is investigated, using the satellite-derived altimetry dataset of 1993–2008. When the Kuroshio takes the nearshore nonlarge meander path or typical large meander path and resultantly goes through the deeper channel (about 2500 m) of the Izu-Ogasawara Ridge, the KE path adopts a relatively stable state with the two quasi-stationary meanders. On the other hand, when the Kuroshio takes the offshore nonlarge meander path and then passes over the shallower part of the Ridge (about 1000 m), the KE path tends to be convoluted, i.e., an unstable state.     

Variability of the nutrient runoff of the rivers of the Arctic Basin

The spatiotemporal variability of the hydrochemical composition of the riverine runoff in nearmouth areas is presented using the example of selected rivers of the Arctic Basin. The temporal dynamics of the riverine nutrient runoff are mainly determined by the seasonal and interseasonal variations in the drainage basins. The spatial variations in the chemical composition of riverine waters in the near-mouth areas are mainly caused by the dynamics of the water flow and the river bed relief and, to a lesser degree, by biochemical processes. It is shown that the variations in the nutrient composition of the waters in near-mouth areas are comparable in magnitude to those at the river-sea geochemical barriers.     

Parameters of the sediments of the deep-water basin of the Black Sea

The methodology and the first results of the computations of the volumes, masses, and growth rates of the sedimentary body of the buried Black Sea basin are presented. Their temporal evolution reflects the regional paleogeodynamics, in particular, the reorientation of the vector of the relative movement of the Arabian and Eurasian lithospheric plates and the related intensification of their collision in the late Miocene-Pliocene.     

Modelling of the ecosystem on the shelf of the Republic of Guinea

Three mathematical models are considered: a two-dimensional model for calculating the concentration fields of the ecosystem components on the shelf of the Republic of Guinea, a pointwise model for the annual variation of the components, and a two predators-prey model. These models are used to study the effect of hydrodynamic conditions on the state of the shelf ecosystem and for research into the causes which distort the balance between marketable and unmarketable fish.Translated by Mikhail M. Trufanov.     

Evolution of the slope of the buried depression of the Black Sea

The first data on the temporal evolution of the slope of the buried depression of the Black Sea are obtained. The sharp change in the rate of the decrease in the slope steepness that occurred in the Late Miocene-Pliocene time reflects a reorientation of the vector of mutual movement and a related intensification of the collision between the Arabian and Eurasian lithospheric plates.