Recent developments in technological forecasting

Technological forecasting means the prediction of characteristics or use of technology. The methods used by technological forecasters are in principle no different from those used by forecasters in other application areas. However, the unique problems of the field require that the methods be adapted to those problems. This paper discusses recent developments involving refinements in the methods which have been in use for the past several decades. It also describes some important recent work on estimating upper limits to the progress of technologies, and on quantitative measures of multi-attribute technologies. Finally, it discusses several issues common to all forecasting application areas, as they are dealt with in technological forecasting. These issues include validation, disasters of forecasting, determinism in forecasting, and some examples of forecasts with practical applications.     

Recent developments in the Lagrangian stochastic theory of turbulent dispersion

In this paper some fundamental aspects of the Lagrangian stochastic theory of turbulent dispersion are discussed. Because of their similar mathematical form, the one- and two-particle theories are treated in parallel. Particular issues identified and discussed include the lack of uniqueness and universality, the role of Reynolds number and intermittency, the importance of two-particle acceleration correlations in relative dispersion and the imposition of consistency constraints between one- and two-particle models.     

Local similarity functions derived from second-moment budgets in the convective boundary layer

A further discussion of local similarity in the convective boundary layer is presented. The similarity functions are derived from budget equations for the turbulent heat flux and temperature variance. The obtained similarity curves are compared with atmospheric measurements and with large-eddy simulation results.     

Energy- and flux-budget (EFB) turbulence closure model for stably stratified flows. Part I: steady-state,homogeneous regimes

We propose a new turbulence closure model based on the budget equations for the key second moments: turbulent kinetic and potential energies: TKE and TPE (comprising the turbulent total energy: TTE = TKE + TPE) and vertical turbulent fluxes of momentum and buoyancy (proportional to potential temperature). Besides the concept of TTE, we take into account the non-gradient correction to the traditional buoyancy flux formulation. The proposed model permits the existence of turbulence at any gradient Richardson number, Ri. Instead of the critical value of Richardson number separating—as is usually assumed—the turbulent and the laminar regimes, the suggested model reveals a transitional interval, , which separates two regimes of essentially different nature but both turbulent: strong turbulence at ; and weak turbulence, capable of transporting momentum but much less efficient in transporting heat, at . Predictions from this model are consistent with available data from atmospheric and laboratory experiments, direct numerical simulation and large-eddy simulation.     

On the determination of the closure parameters in higher-order closure models

In higher-order closure models at least the pressure redistribution and the dissipation of the turbulent kinetic energy and the temperature variance have to be parameterized. Due to this, the introduction of proportionality coefficients — the so-called closure parameters — is forced, which have to be determined before the model is used. We compare a group of models which use the return-to-isotropy hypothesis (Rotta, 1951) to describe the pressure redistribution and assume local isotropy for the smallest eddies in order to parameterize the dissipation. Special concern is given to the method of Mellor and Yamada (1982). Some of the closure parameters are re-derived on the basis of sensitivity studies requiring that both shear production and buoyancy behave in a realistic way if pressure redistribution or dissipation is changed by varying the closure parameters. This set of parameters is compared with those obtained by fitting to experimental data, by use of the Monin-Obukhov similarity theory and by considering ratios of variances, covariances and mean flow gradients, respectively. It is shown that the various sets of closure parameters are at least of the same order. The differences give some insight into the advantages and disadvantages of the various determination procedures. However, the general accordance of the different parameter sets supports the assumption of universal constants.     

A turbulent energy model for geophysical flows

A simple turbulent flow model for geophysical flows is presented, which is based on the transport equation for turbulent energy and on algebraic expressions relating the Reynolds stress and turbulent heat flux to the velocity and temperature gradients. The model, which is similar to the 2.5 level closure model of Mellor and Yamada, includes constraints based on the realizability conditions as well as expressions for the length scale which account for the influence of stratification and the Coriolis acceleration. The model is shown to reproduce satisfactorily the main features of existing laboratory measurements of stress-induced and convective turbulent entrainment in stratified flows.     

A generalized scaling for convective shear flows

During the last two decades, different scalings for convective boundary layer (CBL) turbulence have been proposed. For the shear-free regime, Deardorff (1970) introduced convective velocity and temperature scales based on the surface potential temperature flux,Q _s , the buoyancy parameter, , and the time-dependent boundary-layer depth,h. Wyngaard (1983) has proposed decomposition of turbulence into two components, bottom-up (b) and top-down (t), the former characterized byQ _s , the latter, by the potential temperature flux due to entrainment,Q _h . Sorbjan (1988) has devised height-dependent velocity and temperature scales for both b- and t-components of turbulence.Incorporating velocity shear, the well known similarity theory of Monin and Obukhov (1954) has been developed for the atmospheric surface layer. Zilitinkevich (1971, 1973) and Betchov and Yaglom (1971) have elaborated this theory with the aid of directional dimensional analysis for a particular case when different statistical moments of turbulence can be alternatively attributed as being of either convective or mechanical origin.In the present paper, we attempt to create a bridge between the two approaches pointed out above. A new scaling is proposed on the basis of, first, decomposition of statistical moments of turbulence into convective (c), mechanical (m) and covariance (c&m) contributions using directional dimensional analysis and, second, decomposition of these contributions into bottom-up and top-down components using height-dependent velocity and temperature scales. In addition to the statistical problem, the scaling suggests a new approach of determination of mean temperature and velocity profiles with the aid of the budget equations for the mean square fluctuations.Notation ATL alternative turbulence layer - CBL convective boundary layer - CML convective and mechanical layer - FCL free convection layer - MTL mechanical turbulence layer     

Energy balance closure for the LITFASS-2003 experiment

In the first part, this paper synthesises the main results from a series of previous studies on the closure of the local energy balance at low-vegetation sites during the LITFASS-2003 experiment. A residual of up to 25% of the available energy has been found which cannot be fully explained either by the measurement uncertainty of the single components of the surface energy balance or by the length of the flux-averaging period. In the second part, secondary circulations due to heterogeneities in the surface characteristics (roughness, thermal and moisture properties) are discussed as a possible cause for the observed energy balance non-closure. This hypothesis seems to be supported from the fluxes derived from area-averaging measurement techniques (scintillometers, aircraft).     

A second-order closure model for flow through vegetation

By splitting the turbulent kinetic energy into two wavebands and adopting as the turbulence timescale the ratio k/ of the kinetic energy in the low-frequency band to its turnover-rate, the second-order closure scheme of Launder et al. (1975) has been adapted for flow through vegetation. Predictions of the model compare satisfactorily with observations of the mean windspeed and (somewhat less satisfactorily) with the turbulent velocity variances in two very different canopies.     

Multiple criticalities in coastal flows

Using a simple model, it is shown that a coastal current (composed of water of given dynamical structure) can occur in one of several different forms. The classification of these possible forms for the current is closely associated with the categorization of the behaviour of the various waves able to propagate along the coast. Among the forms of the current found are those differing in the criticality (direction of propagation) of long shelf waves as noted by Collings and Grimshaw, and the criticality of long Kelvin-waves as noted by Gill and Schumann. Earlier studies have considered these criticalities in isolation. The present study attempts to set them in a more coherent framework.     

New developments in FM-CW radar sounding

Simultaneous lidar and FM-CW (frequency modulated-continuous wave) radar observations are presented and both common and different features observed with the two remote sensors are described. Among the common features are Kelvin-Helmholtz (K-H) waves and turbulent structures. The potential of the FM-CW radar as a meteorological tool for aiding fog dissipation forecasts is illustrated. The data also indicate that the radar often detects echoes from height regions which coincide with cloud tops. A new FM-CW radar sounder is described which incorporates scanning capability and which is fully mobile. Examples of recent observations are presented illustrating the capabilities of this second generation radar sounder.Future applications of the FM-CW radar sounder, such as investigations of the exact nature of the mechanism responsible for the radar returns, require accurate calibration of the radar sounder. It is shown that resolution and sensitivity of a linear frequency-modulated FM-CW radar depend on the time delay of the signal. Range dependency on resolution and sensitivity is calculated for various periodic and stochastic perturbations in a linear modulation and good agreement is found between calculated and measured values.     

Stably stratified flows in meteorology

It is generally believed by those undertaking research in the fundamental aspects of geophysical fluid dynamics and meteorology that their results contribute to the improvements to numerical weather prediction and in practical weather forecasting. However, the techniques whereby the appropriate research results are selected and incorporated into the numerical models are not widely known, particularly the methods for representing the phenomena whose horizontal scale is less than that of the grid boxes.(say, 50 km). Some accounts of numerical weather prediction imply that the representation of subgrid-scale phenomena is formally similar to classical physics. In fact, atmospheric motions on these scales are not like molecular motions in an ideal gas, but show considerable structure, approximating to combinations of various idealized states. Great skill and experience in this specialized activity has been applied to deciding on these states, finding physical criteria for defining them and then modelling the relevant phenomena occurring on this scale. In this paper, we focus on a restricted range of phenomena associated with stably stratified flows, notably mountain waves, convection and clouds, and boundary layer phenomena. This category provides many examples of structures which need to be considered in detail to reconstruct the large-scale picture accurately, as well as in local forecasting.     

Vertical fluxes in katabatic flows

Katabatic flow is a dynamical process occurring on relatively calm, clear nights above sloping terrain. Its existence is dependent on long-wave radiative transfer, particularly radiative flux divergence within the air itself, for both its generation and (it is concluded here), along with advective warming, for much of its retardation.Utilising sounding data closely spaced in time, a discussion is presented of the importance of surface shear, interfacial shear, advective warming and radiative divergence in a strong katabatic flow. It is concluded that radiative divergence is important in generating static and dynamic instabilities in the flow. The role of radiative cooling in mixing of momentum has largely been ignored so far, and might explain why higher-order models tend to overestimate katabatic speeds on smooth slopes.     

A solution technique for deep baroclinic rotating flows

The equation governing the behaviour of flow within a deep active layer overlying a deep passive layer is considered when the reference frame is rotating. Attention is drawn to a simple transform which reduces this non-linear equation to Laplace's equation, which may then be solved analytically. This method of solution is illustrated by case studies of flow into a sink and flow around a corner. It is shown that rotation has several important effects on the flow field thus determined.     

Shear instabilities in arrested salt-wedge flows

‘One-sidedness’ in arrested salt-wedge flows is investigated with theoretical models based upon two-layer approximations. These models include the effects of rigid bottom boundaries and the effects of density interface displacement with respect to the centre of the shear layer. The results indicate that inclusion of both interface displacement and rigid boundaries in the model greatly contribute to the ‘one-sidedness’ phenomenon and influence the wave characteristics, especially their stability criteria. Data from laboratory experiments agreed well with the results produced by these models.     

Agent-based model simulations of future changes in migration flows for Burkina Faso

Attempts to quantify the numbers of migrants generated by changes in climate have commonly been calculated by projecting physical climate changes on an exposed population. These studies generally make simplistic assumptions about the response of an individual to variations in climate. However, empirical evidence of environmentally induced migration does not support such a structural approach and recognises that migration decisions are usually both multi-causal and shaped through individual agency. As such, agent-based modelling offers a robust method to simulate the autonomous decision making process relating to environmental migration. The Theory of Planned Behaviour provides a basis that can be used to effectively break down the reasoning process relating to the development of a behavioural intention. By developing an agent-based model of environmental migration for Burkina Faso from the basis of a combination of such theoretical developments and data analysis we further investigate the role of the environment in the decision to migrate using scenarios of future demographic, economic, social, political, and climate change in a dryland context. We find that in terms of climate change, it can be seen that that change to a drier environment produces the largest total and international migration fluxes when combined with changes to inclusive and connected social and political governance. While the lowest international migration flows are produced under a wetter climate with exclusive and diverse governance scenarios. In summary this paper illustrates how agent-based models incorporating the Theory of Planned Behaviour can be used to project evidence based future changes in migration in response to future demographic, economic social and climate change.     

A subgrid-scale model for large-eddy simulation of planetary boundary-layer flows

A long-standing problem in large-eddy simulations (LES) of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) is that the mean wind and temperature profiles differ from the Monin-Obukhov similarity forms in the surface layer. This shortcoming of LES has been attributed to poor grid resolution and inadequate sub-grid-scale (SGS) modeling. We study this deficiency in PBL LES solutions calculated over a range of shear and buoyancy forcing conditions. The discrepancy from similarity forms becomes larger with increasing shear and smaller buoyancy forcing, and persists even with substantial horizontal grid refinement. With strong buoyancy forcing, however, the error is negligible.In order to achieve better agreement between LES and similarity forms in the surface layer, a two-part SGS eddy-viscosity model is proposed. The model preserves the usual SGS turbulent kinetic energy formulation for the SGS eddy viscosity, but it explicitly includes a contribution from the mean flow and a reduction of the contributions from the turbulent fluctuations near the surface. Solutions with the new model yield increased fluctuation amplitudes near the surface and better correspondence with similarity forms out to a distance of 0.1–0.2 times the PBL depth, i.e., a typical surface-layer depth. These results are also found to be independent of grid anisotropy. The new model is simple to implement and computationally inexpensive.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.