秸秆焚烧对区域城市空气质量影响的模拟分析

利用融合火点排放源、人为源和生物源的WRF-Chem(Weather Research and Forecasting Model coupled with Chemistry)模式,模拟2015年9月30日08:00(北京时间)起的72 h发生在淮河流域的一次农作物秸秆大面积露天焚烧过程,研究了农作物秸秆焚烧释放的气态污染物和颗粒物对区域城市空气质量的影响。通过有无火点两组试验分析了此次秸秆焚烧对流域内河南、山东、江苏和安徽四省83座城市CO、PM10(空气动力学当量直径小于等于10μm的颗粒物,即可吸入颗粒物)、PM2.5(空气动力学当量直径小于等于2.5μm的颗粒物,即细颗粒物)和O3浓度的定量影响,结果表明:(1)融合NCAR-FINN(Fire Inventory from NCAR)火点排放资料的WRF-Chem模式较好地再现了此次秸秆焚烧及火点烟羽扩散过程。同时结合EDGAR-HTAP(Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution)人为源和MEGAN(Model of Emission of Gases and Aerosols from Nature)生物源的WRF-FIRE(考虑火点排放试验)对流域内城市大气污染物的模拟效果较为理想,尤其对秸秆焚烧释放的污染物CO、PM10和PM2.5和产生的二次污染物O3浓度的模拟。(2)秸秆焚烧所释放的污染物造成流域内城市一次污染物CO、PM10和PM2.5浓度的增加,火点中心和下风向城市增幅最为明显,最大小时浓度增幅达到3倍标准差。气态污染物CO和相比PM10粒径更小的PM2.5可随风扩散至更远的地区,对城市浓度影响更大。(3)此外,秸秆焚烧也使得火点中心城市和下风向城市二次污染物O3浓度增加,但小时浓度增幅极值区分布在火点下风向烟羽末端太阳光照充足的地区,最大小时浓度增幅接近3倍标准差。秸秆焚烧对区域城市空气质量的影响存在明显的空间分布差异且对城市各大气污染成分的影响也不相同。     

Modeling the Impact of Black Spruce on the Fire Regime of Alaskan Boreal Forest

In the boreal biome, fire is the major disturbance agent affecting ecosystem change, and fire dynamics will likely change in response to climatic warming. We modified a spatially explicit model of Alaskan subarctic treeline dynamics (ALFRESCO) to simulate boreal vegetation dynamics in interior Alaska. The model is used to investigate the role of black spruce ecosystems in the fire regime of interior Alaska boreal forest. Model simulations revealed that vegetation shifts caused substantial changes to the fire regime. The number of fires and the total area burned increased as black spruce forest became an increasingly dominant component of the landscape. The most significant impact of adding black spruce to the model was an increase in the frequency and magnitude of large-scale burning events (i.e., time steps in which total area burned far exceeded the normal distribution of area burned). Early successional deciduous forest vegetation burned more frequently when black spruce was added to the model, considerably decreasing the fire return interval of deciduous vegetation. Ecosystem flammability accounted for the majority of the differences in the distribution of the average area burned. These simulated vegetation effects and fire regime dynamics have important implications for global models of vegetation dynamics and potential biotic feedbacks to regional climate.     

210Po in savanna burning plumes

During the FOS-DECAFE experiment at Lamto (Ivory Coast) in January 1991 aerosols samples were collected at ground level above fires in order to investigate the possibility of using²¹⁰Po as a tracer of biomass burning. The concentration of this radionuclide in plants is studied as a function of its content in soils and in the atmospheric background. It is shown that it depends strongly on the atmospheric content in²¹⁰Po, due to dry deposition of the aerosols. The mean concentration of plants at Lamto is found to be about 4.4 pCi of²¹⁰Po/gC during the fire season and falls down to less than 1pCi/gC outside this period. The budget of²¹⁰Po is evaluated taking into account its complete volatilization during the flaming phase, the (²¹⁰Po)_ash/(²¹⁰Po)_plants ratio, which is measured to be about 14% and the percentage of submicron particles in the plume, about 91%. The inferred flux of²¹⁰Po is 3850 Ci/yr for the African savanna, and 5800 Ci/yr for the global savanna. From this flux, fluxes of Ct and Cs are estimated to be 8.4 and 1.1 Tg of C/yr for the worldwide savanna.     

Nitrogen compound emission from biomass burning in tropical African savanna FOS/DECAFE 1991 experiment (Lamto,Ivory Coast)

Gaseous nitrogen compounds (NO _x , NO _y , NH₃, N₂O) were measured at ground level in smoke plumes of prescribed savanna fires in Lamto, in the southern Ivory Coast, during the FOS/DECAFE experiment in January 1991. During the flaming phase, the linear regression between [NO _x ] and [CO₂] (differences in concentration between smoke plumes and atmosheric background) results volumic emission ratio [NO _x ]/[CO₂]=1.37×10^–3 with only slight differences between heading and backing fires. Nearly 90% of the nitrogen oxides are emitted as NO. Average emission ratios of other compounds are: 1.91, 0.047, and 0.145×10^–3 for NO _y , NH₃ and N₂O, respectively. The emission ratios obtained during this field experiment are compred with corresponding values measured during former experiments with the same plant species in combustion chambers. An accurate determination of both the biomass actually burned and of the plant nitrogen content, allows an assessment of emission fluxes of N-compounds from Guinean savanna burns. Preliminary results dealing with the influence of fire on biogenic emissions from soils are also reported.     

Measurements of CO,HCN, and C2H6 Total Columns in Smoke Plumes Transported from the 2010 Russian Boreal Forest Fires to the Canadian High Arctic

In August 2010, simultaneous enhancements of aerosol optical depth and total columns of carbon monoxide (CO), hydrogen cyanide (HCN), and ethane (C₂H₆) were observed at the Polar Environment Atmospheric Research Laboratory (PEARL, 80.05°N, ?86.42°W, 0.61 km above sea level, Eureka, Nunavut, Canada). Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) hot spots, Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) aerosol index maps, and Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) back-trajectories were used to attribute these enhancements to an intense boreal fire event occurring in Russia. A ground-based Fourier Transform InfraRed (FTIR) spectrometer at PEARL provided vertically integrated measurements of trace gases transported in smoke plumes. We derived HCN and C₂H₆ equivalent emission ratios with respect to CO of 0.0054?±?0.0022 and 0.0108?±?0.0036, respectively, and converted them into equivalent emission factors of 0.66?±?0.27 g kg^?1 and 1.47?±?0.50 g kg^?1 (in grams of gas per kilogram of dry biomass burnt, with one-sigma uncertainties). These emission factors add new observations to the relatively sparse datasets available and can be used to improve the simulation of biomass burning fire emissions in chemical transport models. These emission factors for the boreal forest are in agreement with the mean values recently reported in a compilation study.     

Methane,carbon monoxide and light non-methane hydrocarbon emissions from African savanna burnings during the FOS/DECAFE experiment

Atmospheric samples from savanna burnings were collected in the Ivory Coast during two campaigns in January 1989 and January 1991. About 30 nonmethane hydrocarbons from C₂ to C₆, carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide and methane were measured from the background and also at various distances from the burning. Concentrations in the fire plume reached ppmv levels for C₂-C₄ hydrocarbons, and 5300, 500 and 93 ppmv for CO₂, CO and CH₄ respectively. The excess in the mixing ratios of these gases above their background level is used to derive emission factors relative to CO and CO₂. For the samples collected immediately in the fire plume, a differentiation between high and low combustion efficiency conditions is made by considering the CO/CO₂ ratio. Ethene (C₂H₄), acetylene (C₂H₂), ethane (C₂H₆) and propene (C₃H₆) are the major NMHC produced in the flaming stage, whereas a different pattern with an increasing contribution of alkanes is observed in samples typical of post flaming processes. A strong correlation between methane and carbon monoxide suggests that these compounds are produced during the same stage of the combustion. In samples collected at a distance from the fire and integrated over a period of 30 minutes, the composition is very similar to that of flaming. NMHC/CO₂ is of the order of 0.7%, CH₄/CO₂ of the order of 0.4% and CO/CO₂ of the order of 6.3%. From this study, a global production by African savanna fires is derived: 65 Tg of CO-C, 4.2 Tg of CH₄-C and 6.7 Tg of NMHC-C. Whereas acetylene can be used as a conservative tracer of the fire plumes, only ethene, propene and butenes can be considered in terms of their direct photochemical impact.     

Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Fire Regimes in the Tropics Based on Magicc and a GISS GCM-Derived Lightning Model

Investigations of the ecological, atmospheric chemical, and climatic impacts of contemporary fires in tropical vegetation have received increasing attention during the last 10 years. Little is known, however, about the impacts of climate changes on tropical vegetation and wildland fires. This paper summarizes the main known interactions of fire, vegetation, and atmosphere. Examples of predictive models on the impacts of climate change on the boreal and temperate zones are given in order to highlight the possible impacts on the tropical forest and savanna biomes and to demonstrate parameters that need to be involved in this process. Response of tropical vegetation to fire is characterized by degradation towards xerophytic and pyrophytic plant communities dominated by grasses and fire-tolerant tree and bush invaders. The potential impacts of climate change on tropical fire regimes are investigated using a GISS GCM-based lightning and fire model and the Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse Gas-Induced Climate Change (MAGICC).     

Predicted changes in fire weather suggest increases in lightning fire initiation and future area burned in the mixedwood boreal forest

Forecasting future fire activity as a function of climate change is a step towards understanding the future state of the western mixedwood boreal ecosystem. We developed five annual weather indices based on the Daily Severity Rating (DSR) of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System and estimated their relationship with annual, empirical counts of lightning fire initiation for 588 landscapes in the mixedwood boreal forest in central-eastern Alberta, Canada from data collected between 1983 and 2001 using zero-inflated negative binomial regression models. Two indices contributed to a parsimonious model of initiation; these were Seasonal Severity Rating (SSR), and DSR-sequence count. We used parameter estimates from this model to predict lightning fire initiation under weather conditions predicted in 1 × CO₂ (1975–1985), 2 × CO₂ (2040–2049) and 3 × CO₂ (2080–2089) conditions simulated by the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM). We combined predicted initiation rates for these conditions with existing empirical estimates of the number of fire initiations that grow to be large fires (fire escapes) and the fire size distribution for the region, to predict the annual area burned by lightning-caused fires in each of the three climate conditions. We illustrated a 1.5-fold and 1.8-fold increase of lightning fire initiation by 2040–2049 and 2080–2089 relative to 1975–1985 conditions due to changes in fire weather predicted by the CRCM; these increases were calculated independent of changes in lightning activity. Our simulations suggested that weather-mediated increases in initiation frequency could correspond to a substantial increase in future area burned with 1.9-fold and 2.6-fold increases in area burned in 2040–2049 and 2080–2089 relative to 1975–1985 conditions, respectively. We did not include any biotic effects in these estimates, though future patterns of initiation and fire growth will be regulated not only by weather, but also by vegetation and fire management.     

Comparison of two gas-phase chemical kinetic mechanisms of ozone formation over Europe

Two recent gas-phase chemical kinetic mechanisms for tropospheric ozone formation, one based on the lumped-structure approach (CB05) and the other based on the lumped-molecule approach (RACM2), are compared for simulations of ozone over Europe. The host air quality model is POLAIR3D of the Polyphemus modeling platform. A one-month period (15 July to 15 August 2001) is simulated. Model performance is satisfactory with both mechanisms. Overall, the two mechanisms give similar results with a domain-averaged difference of 3 ppb and a mean fractional absolute difference of 5% (values averaged over the month for the daily 8-h average maximum ozone concentrations). This difference results from different treatments in the two mechanisms for both inorganic and organic chemistry. Differences in the treatment of the inorganic chemistry are due mainly to differences in the kinetics of two reactions: NO + O₃ \(\longrightarrow\) NO₂ + O₂ and NO + HO₂ \(\longrightarrow\) NO₂ + OH. These differences lead to a domain-averaged difference in ozone concentration of 5%, with RACM2 kinetics being more conducive to ozone formation. Differences in the treatment of organic chemistry lead to a domain-averaged difference in ozone concentration of 3%, with CB05 chemistry being more conducive to ozone formation. This average difference results in part from compensating effects among various VOC classes and some significant differences are identified at specific locations (the coastline of northern Africa and eastern Europe: 9%) and for specific organic classes (aldehydes, biogenic alkenes and aromatics). Differences in the treatment of the organic chemistry result from various aspects. For some VOC classes, such as aldehydes and biogenic alkenes, the more detailed explicit treatments using more model species in RACM2 lead to either greater or lower reactivity depending on the assumptions made for the oxidation products. For other VOC species, such as aromatics, the assumptions made about the major chemical oxidation pathways (aromatic alcohol formation in CB05 vs. ring opening in RACM2) affect the ozone formation significantly. Reconciliation of different chemical kinetic mechanisms will require experimental data to reduce current uncertainties in the kinetic (e.g., NO oxidation) and mechanistic (e.g., aromatics oxidation) representations of major chemical pathways.     

Eemian tropical and subtropical African moisture transport: an isotope modelling study

During the last interglacial insolation maximum (Eemian, MIS 5e) the tropical and subtropical African hydrological cycle was enhanced during boreal summer months. The climate anomalies are examined with a General Circulation Model (ECHAM4) that is equipped with a module for the direct simulation of ¹⁸O and deuterium (H ₂ ¹⁸ O and HDO, respectively) in all components of the hydrological cycle. A mechanism is proposed to explain the physical processes that lead to the modelled anomalies. Differential surface heating due to anomalies in orbital insolation forcing induce a zonal flow which results in enhanced moisture advection and precipitation. Increased cloud cover reduces incoming short wave radiation and induces a cooling between 10°N and 20°N. The isotopic composition of rainfall at these latitudes is therefore significantly altered. Increased amount of precipitation and stronger advection of moisture from the Atlantic result in isotopically more depleted rainfall in the Eemian East African subtropics compared to pre-industrial climate. The East–West gradient of the isotopic rainfall composition reverses in the Eemian simulation towards depleted values in the east, compared to more depleted western African rainfall in the pre-industrial simulation. The modelled re-distribution of δ¹⁸O and δD is the result of a change in the forcing of the zonal flow anomaly. We conclude that the orbitally induced forcing for African monsoon maxima extends further eastward over the continent and leaves a distinct isotopic signal that can be tested against proxy archives, such as lake sediment cores from the Ethiopian region.     

Formulation and Evaluation of IMS, an Interactive Three-Dimensional Tropospheric Chemical Transport Model 3. Comparison of Modelled C2–C5 Hydrocarbons with Surface Measurements

In part 3 of this series of papers on a new 3-D global troposphericchemical transport model, using an Integrated Modelling System (IMS), anevaluation of the model performance in simulating global distributions andseasonal variations for volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in the atmosphere,is presented. Comparisons of model OH concentrations with previous modelstudies show consistent modelled OH levels from the subtropics tomidlatitudes, while more discrepancies occur over the tropical lowlatitudes, with IMS predicting the highest levels of OH. The close agreementbetween modelled OH concentrations over midlatitudes, where high surfaceNO_xand VOC concentrations are also found, is indicative of the strongphotochemical coupling between NO_x, VOCs and O₃ overthese latitudes. IMSOH concentrations in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) midlatitudes during summerare generally lower than available measurements, implying that models ingeneral are underestimating OH levels at this location and time of year.Substantial differences between model OH concentrations over low latitudesclearly highlight areas of uncertainty between models. IMS OH concentrationsare the highest in general of the models compared, one possible reason isthat biogenic emissions of species such as isoprene and monoterpenes arehighest in IMS, leading to higher O₃ levels and hence higher OH.Generally, the IMS VOC concentrations show a similar seasonality to themeasurements at most locations. In general though, IMS tends to underestimatethe NH wintertime VOC maximum and overestimate the NH summertime VOCminimum. Such an overestimate in summer could be due to IMSunderestimating OH levels, or an overestimation of VOC emissions or possiblya problem with model transport, all of these possibilities are explored.Except for n-pentane, the model underprediction of a VOC maximum during theNH winter month strongly suggests a missing emission mechanism in the modelor an underestimate of an existing one. It is very likely that there is alack of time varying emission sources in the model to account for theseasonal change in emission behaviour such as increasing energy usage (e.g.,electricity and gas), road transportation, engine performance, and otheranthropogenic factors which show strong seasonal characteristics. Theanomalous overprediction of wintertime n-pentane compared with its closesummertime prediction with the measurements suggest that emissions in thiscase may be too high.     

Aging of savanna biomass burning aerosols: Consequences on their optical properties

During the FOS-DECAFE experiment at Lamto, Ivory Coast, in January 1991, various ground studies were undertaken simultaneously in order to investigate the physical and chemical characteristics of smoke emitted by savanna biomass burning. Here we present sunphotometer ground-based results which allow the measurements of the spectral optical depth between 450 and 850 nm, the atmospheric water vapour content and the particle size distribution spectrum. The carbonaceous content of the savanna biomass burning aerosols is also investigated. This is the first time that the physical characteristics of particles emitted by savanna plumes are obtained from ground-field studies. All the results suggest that a rapid aging of the smoke occurs first hundred metres from the savanna fire èmission source. They show a relationship between the optical properties of smoke and the chemical aging of the aerosols primarily due to particle growth and a loss of organic material relative to the black carbon content.     

Particulate content of savanna fire emissions

As part of the FOS-DECAFE experiment at Lamto (Ivory Coast) in January 1991, various aerosol samples were collected at ground level near prescribed fires or under local background conditions, to characterize the emissions of particulate matter from the burning of savanna vegetation. This paper deals with total aerosol (TPM) and carbon measurements. Detailed trace element and polycyclic hydrocarbon data are discussed in other papers presented in this issue.Near the fire plumes, the aerosols from biomass burning are primarily of a carbonaceous nature (C%70% of the aerosol mass) and consist predominantly of submicron particles (more than 90% in mass.) They are characterized by their organic nature (black to total carbon ratio Cb/Ct in the range 3–20%) and their high potassium content (K/Cb0.6). These aerosols undergo aging during their first minutes in the atmosphere causing slight alterations in their size distribution and chemical composition. However, they remain enriched in potassium (K/Cb=0.21) and pyrene, a polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon, such that both of these species may be used as tracers of savanna burning aerosols. We show that during this period of the year, the background atmosphere experiences severe pollution from both terrigenous sources and regional biomass burning (44% of the aerosol). Daynight variations of the background carbon concentrations suggest that fire ignition and spreading occur primarily during the day. Simultaneous TPM and CO₂ real-time measurements point to a temporal and spatial heterogeneity of the burning so that the ratio of the above background concentrations (TPM/CO₂) varies from 2 to 400 g/kg C. Smoldering processes are intense sources of particles but particulate emissions may also be important during the rapidly spreading heading fires in connection with the generation of heavy brown smoke. We propose emission factor values (EF) for aerosols from the savanna biomass burning aerosols: EF (TPM)=11.4±4.6 and 69±25 g/kg C_{dry plant} and EF(Ct)=7.4±3.4 and 56±16 g C/kg C_{dry plant} for flaming and smoldering processes respectively. In these estimates, the range of uncertainty is mostly due to the intra-fire variability. These values are significantly lower than those reported in the literature for the combustion of other types of vegetation. But due to the large amounts of vegetation biomass being burnt in African savannas, the annual flux of particulate carbon into the atmosphere is estimated to be of the order of 8 Tg C, which rivals particulate carbon emissions from anthropogenic activities in temperate regions.     

Measurements of trace gases emitted by Australian savanna fires during the 1990 dry season

During 18–23 July 1990, 31 smoke samples were collected from an aircraft flying at low altitudes through the plumes of tropical savanna fires in the Northern Territory, Australia. The excess (above background) mixing ratios of 17 different trace gases including CO₂, CO, CH₄, several non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHC), CH₃CHO, NO _x (– NO + NO₂), NH₃, N₂O, HCN and total unspeciated NMHC and sulphur were measured. Emissionratios relative to excess CO₂ and CO, and emissionfactors relative to the fuel carbon, nitrogen or sulphur content are determined for each measured species. The emission ratios and factors determined here for carbon-based gases, NO _x , and N₂O are in good agreement with those reported from other biomass burning studies. The ammonia data represent the first such measurements from savanna fires, and indicate that NH₃ emissions are more than half the strength of NO _x emissions. The emissions of NO _x , NH₃, N₂O and HCN together represent only 27% of the volatilised fuel N, and are primarily NO _x (16%) and NH₃ (9%). Similarly, only 56% of the volatilised fuel S is accounted for by our measurements of total unspeciated sulphur.     

ModellingNO conversion by using probability density functions

An expression for concentration fluctuations in a smoke plume is derived from airborne measurements ofNO _X. A linear relation between the standard deviation of the fluctuations around a Gaussian concentration profile and the average gradient in the concentrations is assumed. With this relation the probability density function of expectedNO ₂ concentrations at 3 km from a source ofNO _X is modelled under the assumption of photostatic equilibrium, and is compared with measurements. A parametrisation for the concentration fluctuations of std(C)= 26(+/–7)*dc/dr is proposed (r in metres). CalculatedNO ₂ distributions are in reasonable agreement with the measurements and the averageNO ₂ concentration appeared not to be affected by the concentration fluctuations in theNO _X concentration. The spatial resolution of all measurements was 40 m.     

Model studies of the impact of chemical inhomogeneity on SO2 oxidation in warm stratiform clouds

A one-dimensional, time-dependent model of the physics and chemistry of a warm stratiform cloud is used to study the possible impact of chemical inhomogeneity among cloud and raindrops on the oxidation of SO₂ in clouds. The effects of chemical inhomogeneity are examined using two contrasting models: In Model 1 a bulk-solution parameterization is adopted which effectively treats all cloud and raindrops as if they are chemically homogeneous; in Model 2 we allow the cloud and raindrops to have a dichotomous distribution. The dichotomous distribution in Model 2 is simulated by assuming that the two groups of cloud droplets nucleate from two chemically distinct populations of condensation nuclei; one being acidic and the other being alkaline. While the two models yield essentially identical results when the ambient levels of H₂O₂ are greater than the ambient levels of SO₂, the rate of conversion of SO₂ to sulfuric acid and the amount of sulfate removed in the precipitation can be significantly enhanced in Model 2 over that of Model 1 under conditions of oxidant limitation (i.e., H₂O₂ < SO₂). This enhancement is critically dependent upon the fraction of alkaline nuclei assumed to be present in Model 2 and arises from the rapid increase in the aqueous-phase reaction between O₃+S_IV at high pH. Our results suggest that cloud models which adopt a bulk-solution parameterization for cloud droplet chemistry, may underestimate the amount of in-cloud SO₂ oxidation under oxidant-limited conditions.     

High-Latitude Springtime Photochemistry. Part Ii: Sensitivity Studies of Ozone Production

A seven-year record of surface ozone measurements from Denali NationalPark, Alaska shows a persistent spring maximum. These data, combined withmeasurements of NO_x, hydrocarbons, O₃, and PANfrom a continental site in Alaska during the spring of 1995 are used as thebasis for a sensitivity study to explore tropospheric photochemistry in thisregion. Because of the relatively high concentrations of NO_x(mean of 116, median of 91 pptv), the net tendency was for photochemicalozone production. The range of net O₃ production for averageconditions measured at this site during spring is between 0.96–3.9ppbv/day depending on the assumptions used; in any case, this productionmust contribute to the observed springtime maximum in O₃.Model calculations showed that of the anthropogenic ozone precursors, onlyNO_x had a strong effect on the rate of ozone production; themeasured concentrations of anthropogenic hydrocarbons did not significantlyaffect the ozone budget. Naturally produced biogenic hydrocarbons, such asisoprene, may also have a significant effect on ozone production, even atconcentrations of a few 10's of pptv. An observed temperature-isoprenerelationship from a boreal site in Canada indicates that isoprene may bepresent during the Alaskan spring. Measurements of isoprene taken duringthe spring of 1996 suggest that reactive biogenic hydrocarbon emissionsbegin before the emergence of leaves on deciduous trees and that theconcentrations were sufficient to accelerate ozone production.     

Development of the IAP Dynamic Global Vegetation Model

ABSTRACT The lAP Dynamic Global Vegetation Model （IAP-DGVM） has been developed to simulate the distribution and structure of global vegetation within the framework of Earth System Models. It incorporates our group＇s recent developments of major model components such as the shrub sub-model, establishment and competition parameterization schemes, and a process-based fire parameterization of intermediate complexity. The model has 12 plant functional types, including seven tree, two shrub, and three grass types, plus bare soil. Different PFTs are allowed to coexist within a grid cell, and their state variables are updated by various governing equations describing vegetation processes from fine-scale biogeophysics and biogeochemistry, to individual and population dynamics, to large-scale biogeography. Environmental disturbance due to fire not only affects regional vegetation competition, but also influences atmospheric chemistry and aerosol emissions. Simulations under observed atmospheric conditions showed that the model can correctly reproduce the global distribution of trees, shrubs, grasses, and bare soil. The simulated global dominant vegetation types reproduce the transition from forest to grassland （savanna） in the tropical region, and from forest to shrubland in the boreal region, but overestimate the region of temperate forest.     

The effect of line averaging on concentration fluctuations

The reduction in variance of concentration fluctuations due to line averaging is estimated assuming that the process is influenced by the integral distance scale, y _I , of ambient turbulence and the scaling width, W, of the time-averaged plume. An analytical formula is derived for the line-averaged variance for situations where the autocorrelogram is exponential and the point variance decreases exponentially with distance from plume centerline. Predictions of concentration fluctuation variance are compared with water tank and field data, with the result that the decrease of variance with averaging distance is well-simulated if the model parameters y _I and W are carefully chosen.     

Determining Effects of Area Burned and Fire Severity on Carbon Cycling and Emissions in Siberia

The Russian boreal forest contains about 25% of the global terrestrial biomass, and even a higher percentage of the carbon stored in litter and soils. Fire burns large areas annually, much of it in low-severity surface fires – but data on fire area and impacts or extent of varying fire severity are poor. Changes in land use, cover, and disturbance patterns such as those predicted by global climate change models, have the potential to greatly alter current fire regimes in boreal forests and to significantly impact global carbon budgets. The extent and global importance of fires in the boreal zone have often been greatly underestimated. For the 1998 fire season we estimate from remote sensing data that about 13.3 million ha burned in Siberia. This is about 5 times higher than estimates from the Russian Aerial Forest Protection Service (Avialesookhrana) for the same period. We estimate that fires in the Russian boreal forest in 1998 constituted some 14–20% of average annual global carbon emissions from forest fires. Average annual emissions from boreal zone forests may be equivalent to 23–39% of regional fossil fuel emissions in Canada and Russia, respectively. But the lack of accurate data and models introduces large potential errors into these estimates. Improved monitoring and understanding of the landscape extent and severity of fires and effects of fire on carbon storage, air chemistry, vegetation dynamics and structure, and forest health and productivity are essential to provide inputs into global and regional models of carbon cycling and atmospheric chemistry.