基于分形理论确定地下煤层自燃火区范围

探测地下煤层自燃火区位置与范围较为有效的方法是地面氡气测量。针对传统地面氡气测量方法存在特定条件限制、地球化学意义不明显的不足,通过分析地下煤层自燃火区地面测氡采集到的数据,分别应用传统方法和分形理论的含量-总量法、含量-周长法确定氡值的异常下限。通过比较三者确定的异常下限以及所圈定火区范围的不同,发现分形方法圈定的火区范围更加合理。      

Observations and box model analysis of radon-222 in the atmospheric surface layer at L’Aquila,Italy: March 2009 case study

Two years of radon-222 observations collected at L’Aquila (Italy) in the atmospheric surface layer during 2004–2006 were analyzed in correlation with meteorological data and other atmospheric tracers. A box model was developed to better understand the mechanisms of diurnal and seasonal variability of the tracer and to indirectly assess the magnitude of the monthly averaged radon soil flux in the L’Aquila measurement site. The model was successfully validated with measurements, with a 0.8 average correlation coefficient between hourly values for the whole period of radon observations. Measurements taken during March 2009 were analyzed to find possible signs of perturbation due to the ongoing seismic activity that would have reached its peak on the 6 April 2009 destructive earthquake. Contrary to the professed (and unpublished) dramatic increases of radon activity unofficially announced to the inhabitants at that time, the study presented here shows that no radon activity increase took place in L’Aquila with respect to a previous ‘seismically unperturbed’ year (same month with similar meteorological conditions), but that an average 30 % decrease was experienced. This conclusion is reached from a direct comparison of observed data and also as a result of the previously validated radon box model constrained by actual meteorological data, from which an indirect estimate of a 17 % reduction of the radon soil flux is obtained.     

Specific variations of air temperature and relative humidity around the time of Michoacan earthquake M8.1 Sept. 19, 1985 as a possible indicator of interaction between tectonic plates

The recent development of the Lithosphere–Atmosphere–Ionosphere (LAI) coupling model and experimental data of remote sensing satellites on thermal anomalies before major strong earthquakes have demonstrated that radon emanations in the area of earthquake preparation can produce variations of the air temperature and relative humidity. Specific repeating pattern of humidity and air temperature variations was revealed as a result of analysis of the meteorological data for several tens of strong earthquakes all over the world. The main physical process responsible for the observed variations is the latent heat release due to water vapor condensation on ions produced as a result of air ionization by energetic α-particles emitted by ²²²Rn. The high effectiveness of this process was proved by the laboratory and field experiments; hence the specific variations of air humidity and temperature can be used as indicator of radon variations before earthquakes.We analyzed the historical meteorological data all over the Mexico around the time of one of the most destructive earthquakes (Michoacan earthquake M8.1) that affected the Mexico City on September 19, 1985. Several distinct zones of specific variations of the air temperature and relative humidity were revealed that may indicate the different character of radon variations in different parts of Mexico before the Michoacan earthquake. The most interesting result on the specific variations of atmosphere parameters was obtained at Baja California region close to the border of Cocos and Rivera tectonic plates. This result demonstrates the possibility of the increased radon variations not only in the vicinity of the earthquake source but also at the border of interacting tectonic plates. Recent results on Thermal InfraRed (TIR) anomalies registered by Meteosat 5 before the Gujarat earthquake M7.9 on 26 of January 2001 supports the idea on the possibility of thermal effects at the border of interacting tectonic plates.     

氡及其子体测量在东胜砂岩铀矿勘查中的应用

通过对砂岩型铀矿地区氡及其子体的测量及对异常形成机理的分析, 进一步研究数据处理和解释方法。东胜地区实测资料表明了氡及其子体低值异常对应成矿相对有利的地段, 说明了解释方法的有效性, 为充分发挥攻深能力强的氡及其子体方法在铀矿找矿中的作用奠定基础。     

鄂尔多斯盆地南缘崇信-泾川地区航放异常特征及铀矿找矿前景分析

研究区位于鄂尔多斯盆地南缘西部,处于天环凹陷东南部,分布有3147崇信和319焦家会砂岩型铀矿点。笔者依据对前人资料的收集、整理,利用地质剖面测量、地面伽玛总量测量、地面伽玛能谱测量、土壤氡剖面测量及岩石取样分析对研究区分布的HFU-53号异常进行了查证,结合查证结果,对区内铀成矿条件进行分析,探讨了铀找矿前景。分析认为崇信-泾川地区存在有利的找矿目的层,具备较好的砂岩型铀成矿条件,航空放射性异常区是重点找矿地段,筛选了1处铀找矿有利区。该研究成果对加快推进该地区铀矿产资源勘查具有指示意义。     

Origin of anomalies of radon volume activity during failure of rocks

Experimental and theoretical research into the processes of radon emanation during failure of rocks has been carried out. We propose a physical model for the mechanisms of origin of anomalies of radon volume activity. Based on the obtained experimental data, relative changes in the open porosity and specific inner surface of rock during its failure have been studied.     

Temporal variation of soil radon and thoron concentrations in Mizoram (India), associated with earthquakes

Continuous soil-gas radon and thoron measurements were carried out at 15 days interval along Mat fault in Mizoram (India), which lies in the seismic zone V of the seismic zonation map of India. The study was carried out from March 2012 to February 2013 using LR-115 Type II detectors, manufactured by Kodak Pathe, France. The effect of meteorological parameters on radon and thoron data was taken into consideration. The annual average value of radon and thoron concentration was found to be 621.21 and 590.18 Bq/m³ with a standard deviation of 377.60 and 301.34 Bq/m³, respectively. Inverse correlation coefficient was obtained between radon/thoron concentration and the meteorological parameters except in one case (thoron and relative humidity) which showed a weak positive correlation. Standard deviation method was employed in order to differentiate those anomalies which are solely caused by seismic events and not by meteorological parameters. The data obtained have been correlated with the seismic activities that occurred around the measuring site. Positive correlations were found between radon/thoron data and the earthquakes.     

土壤氡测量国际比对及几个重要问题

为了保证我国氡填图方法研究中关键参数土壤氡浓度测量结果的准确性和可靠性,笔者所在的实验室作为首次参加氡国际比对的中国组织,参加了2010年在捷克举行的3个氡参考点Cetyně、Bohostice和Buk现场测量国际比对。经T-学生分布检验,当显著性水平α=1%时,本实验室在氡参考点上45个测点的实测土壤氡浓度值cA与全部比对测量参加者的CA(2000年以来该参考点全部组织的平均值)数据有很好的一致性;3个参考点的平均氡浓度与自2000年以来在这些氡参考点进行试验的所有成功组织(N=180)提交数据形成的数据库中的数据高度一致,总相对误差小于6%。该成果表明本实验室的土壤氡测量技术已达国际相应水平。通过本次氡国际比对,发现了我国土壤氡测量中仪器校准、土壤气体采样技术等方面存在的问题,建议系统开展土壤氡测量方法及其技术规范等研究。     

Identification of pre-seismic anomalies of soil radon-222 signal using Hilbert–Huang transform

Concentration of Rn-222 in soil has been monitored continuously at Ravangla in the Sikkim Himalayan Region of eastern India for about 7 months from October 2015 to May 2016 to detect earthquake-induced anomalies. The recorded data clearly show that various physical and meteorological parameters influence the soil radon concentration, leading to very complex soil Rn-222 time series. The components due to such external influences have been removed from the present time series, and Hilbert–Huang transform (HHT) applied for analysis of the data. Two radon anomalies caused due to earthquakes of magnitude M _b = 5.0 that occurred on 19 November 2015 and 5 April 2016 within an epicentral distance of 500 km from the monitoring station have been identified on the soil Rn-222 time series. These two precursory anomalies occurred 9 and 10 days, respectively, before the occurrence of the earthquakes. The absence of spurious signals or missing anomalies demonstrates that HHT is advantageous for analysis of nonlinear non-stationary data, and hence, it is a promising technique to analyse soil radon behaviour for predicting the possibility of occurrence of earthquakes.     

Groundwater radon anomalies associated with earthquakes

Earthquake-related changes in groundwater radon have been detected at a sensitive observation site located right on a major active fault in Northeast Japan. A time-series analysis based on Bayesian statistics was successfully applied to remove background variations from the observed radon data, enabling us to examine the earthquake-related changes in detail.

We set a simple criterion of amplitude and duration for an anomaly observed in our radon data; we define an anomaly as a radon change that kept its level beyond 2σ (a standard deviation over the whole observation period) during a period longer than one day. We have observed 20 radon anomalies that satisfied this criterion from January 1984 to December 1988. Most of these anomalies have turned out to be related to large earthquakes that occurred in East Japan and its surrounding area; we have identified 12 post-seismic and 2-pre-seismic radon anomalies out of a total of 30 earthquakes with magnitude M 6.0 and hypocentral distance D 1000 km.

The typical pattern of the post-seismic anomalies is a radon decrease which started just after an earthquake, lasting for periods ranging from a few days to more than one week. The amplitude of the post-seismic anomalies depends on both magnitude and hypocentral distance, and can, in general, be expressed by a simple magnitude-distance relationships.

A possible pre-seismic anomaly was observed about one week before the largest earthquake that occurred in this region during the observation period (March 6, 1984; M = 7.9, D = 1000 km). Another possible pre-seismic anomaly was observed about three days before two nearby large earthquakes that occurred at almost the same place in a time interval of 53 min (February 6, 1987; M = 6.4 and M = 6.7, D = 130 km).     

Probabilistic neural network algorithm for using radon emanations as an earthquake precursor

The investigation throughout the world in past two decades provides evidence which indicate that significance variation of radon and other soil gases occur in association with major geophysical events such as earthquake. The traditional statistical algorithm includes regression to remove the effect of the meteorological parameters from the raw radon and anomalies are calculated either taking the periodicity in seasonal variations or periodicity computed using Fast Fourier Transform. In case of neural networks the regression step is avoided. A neural network model can be found which can learn the behavior of radon with respect to meteorological parameter in order that changing emission patterns may be adapted to by the model on its own. The output of this neural model is the estimated radon values. This estimated radon value is used to decide whether anomalous behavior of radon has occurred and a valid precursor may be identified. The neural network model developed using Radial Basis function network gave a prediction rate of 87.7%. The same was accompanied by huge false alarms. The present paper deals with improved neural network algorithm using Probabilistic Neural Networks that requires neither an explicit step of regression nor use of any specific period. This neural network model reduces the false alarms to zero and gave same prediction rate as RBF networks.     

氡气异常解释方法的初步探讨

在铀矿勘探中,根据氡气异常计算矿体埋深的工作是十分重要的。本文从运用测氡及其子体的方法寻找深部铀矿的事实出发,探讨了氡气运移的方式及其可能分布的模式,并对M.M.索科洛夫的实验结果进行了初步的理论讨论。同时,对根据氡气异常计算矿体埋深的解释问题进行了探索性的研究。本文所提出的方法,在一定的地质条件下,原则上适用于各种放射性测量异常的解释方法。实践表明,本法在矿床勘探工作中能提供关于矿体的某些参数(埋深和产状),有一定的实用价值。     

A comparison of field and laboratory analytical methods for radon site investigation

Soil-gas radon measurements provide a valuable tool in assessing probable indoor radon levels on a regional basis. However, in Great Britain, seasonal weather changes can cause large changes in soil-gas radon concentration. Although this does not significantly constrain systematic radon potential mapping programmes, it does cause difficulties in responding to ad-hoc requests for site-specific radon investigations. The relationship between soil-gas radon and gamma spectrometry measurements made in the field with radon released from a representative sample of soil in the laboratory has been investigated as part of a program to develop a method of radon potential mapping and site investigation which can be used at any time of the year. Multiple soil and soil-gas samples were collected from sites underlain by bedrocks with widely varying radon potentials. For each geological unit, sites both free of and covered by glacial drift deposits were sampled. Soil and soil-gas samples were taken at the same depth of 60–100 cm. The effectiveness of these radon site investigation procedures has been evaluated by studying the relationship between the soil-gas radon, gamma spectrometry and radon emanation data with an independent estimate of the radon risk. The geologic radon potential (GEORP), which is the proportion of existing dwellings which exceed the UK radon Action Level (200 Bq m⁻³) for a particular combination of solid and drift geology within a defined geographic area, has been used for this study as the independent estimate of radon risk. Soil-gas radon, radon emanation and eU (equivalent uranium by field γ spectrometry) are all good geochemical indicators of radon risk (GEORP) in Derbyshire but only soil-gas radon correlates significantly with GEORP in Northamptonshire. Radon in soil gas discriminates more effectively between sites with different radon potential in Northamptonshire if soil permeability is also taken into account. In general, measurement of soil-gas radon in the field provides the most universally applicable indicator of radon potential. If soil-gas radon concentrations cannot be determined because of climatic factors, for example when the soil profile is waterlogged, measurement of radon emanation in the laboratory or measurement of eU can be used as radon potential indicators in some geological environments. This applies particularly in areas where the soil composition rather than the composition and permeability of the underlying rock or superficial deposits are the dominant controls of radon potential. It appears, therefore, that it may be necessary to use different radon site investigation methods according to the specific factors controlling radon emanation from the ground. In some cases no method will provide a reliable indicator of radon risk under unfavourable climatic conditions.     

北京及临近地区地下水中氡的形成条件

地下水中氡及其母体铀、镭的测试研究,在勘探铀矿以及矿泉的开发利用方面,国内外已有大量工作和重要成果。近几年来,在地震预报的应用方面,也开展了不少工作。对于地下水中氡的形成问题的研究,是与上述各项工作有密切联系的一项基础工作。     

综合物化探方法在寻找隐伏铀钼矿床中的应用

在大官厂铀钼矿区北带东部的已知剖面开展氡气和金属活动态测量方法的有效性试验,证实在隐伏铀钼矿体上方存在明显的氡气异常和铀钼活动态异常。利用该方法对矿区北带西部进行找矿预测,对综合异常开展钻探验证,发现了隐伏铀钼矿体,证实氡气测量和金属活动态测量是寻找隐伏铀钼矿床的有效方法。     

趋势面分析法圈定氡异常

测氡技术能有效圈定煤炭气化燃空区范围。为了准确圈定氡异常的位置和范围,采用趋势面分析方法,以不同次数的多项式拟合氡元素的整体分布趋势;基于拟合度分析和F分布检验确定最佳趋势面多项式的次数,在此基础上进行残差(剩余)分析,识别局部异常,进而圈定氡值异常范围。以内蒙乌兰察布新奥集团煤炭地下气化燃空区测氡数据为例,验证了该分析方法在圈定地下气化燃空区范围方面的可行性。结果表明:该方法圈定的氡异常与验证钻孔点吻合程度好,明显优于使用传统方法圈定氡异常的方法,为低放射性地区氡异常的圈定提供了一种快速、简单并且有效的方法。      

氡、氦等气体地球化学在地震科学研究中的进展

系统回顾了氡、氦的气体地球化学特征及其在地震科学研究中的应用情况。在分析氡、氦等地下气体在地壳中浓度变化的影响因素基础上,总结出氡、氦等地下气体浓度变化具年变（或日变）规律,且受多种因素诸如其自身的地球化学行为、气候条件、地质构造及区域应力场等的综合影响。归纳了近30年来在氡、氦的理论和实验研究以及氡异常的形成机理研究方面所取得的进展。氡、氦等地下气体在地震监测预报及基础研究方面日益发挥出越来越重要的作用,但对其自身的认识还远远不够,提出了今后应在氡、氦等地下气体的异常迁移、实验研究、资料处理过程中对干扰因素的排除以及开展深部气体运移与地震活动的关系等方面开展研究的建议。     

氡气测量在工程地质中的应用--以西南某水电站右坝肩稳定性研究为例

本文分析了氡气测量的原理和氡气异常与不同地质现象的关系 ,提出了氡异常的判据与特征 ,并结合工程实例探讨了氡气测量在工程地质中的重要作用。     

Examining Granger causality between atmospheric parameters and radon

In this paper, we study the relationship between atmospheric parameters (i.e., temperature and humidity) and radon data. We use the linear Granger causality in order to observe possible connections, on short and mid time scale periods, between radon time series and meteorological parameters that strongly influence radon emissions. The analysis suggests radon emission is not affected by these atmospheric parameters on short periods, while there is an evidence of Granger causality on mid periods.     

粤北某铀矿勘查区深部铀矿找矿潜力分析

基于大比例尺区域地质调查工作,在粤北某铀矿勘查区通过分量化探和土壤氡气测量开展深部铀矿找矿工作。已知的隐伏铀矿区测量结果表明,铀矿赋存在断裂之中,在含矿断裂上方形成U的分量化探异常和土壤氡气异常;在该异常区内,同时伴随W、Be、Ba、Mo、Li、Ni的分量化探异常。综合分析分量化探和土壤氡气资料,勘查区内北北东向F_2、F_1处的分量化探和土壤氡气异常具备已知隐伏铀矿区的全部异常特征,推测该处异常具有较大的深部找矿前景,进一步的钻探工作正在进行中。