Impacts of the MJO in the Indian Ocean and on the Western Australian coast

The large sea surface temperature variations induced by the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) on the northwest shelf of Australia and the remote influence of the MJO on the subtropical Western Australian coast are explored using the POAMA Ensemble Ocean Data Assimilation System reanalyses (PEODAS) for the period 1980–2010. The focus here is during the November–April extended summer season when the impacts of the MJO on and along the west coast of Australia are greatest. The MJO is well known to force equatorial Kelvin and Rossby waves in the Indian Ocean, and these are well depicted in the PEODAS reanalyses. When the downwelling Kelvin waves (forced by the westerly-convective phase of the MJO) reach the Indonesian region at the eastern boundary of the Indian Ocean, a coastally trapped Kelvin wave appears to propagate southeast along the Indonesian coastline. At the same time, the suppressed convection/easterly phase of the MJO arrives in the eastern Indian Ocean, with increased heat flux into the ocean due to reduced latent heat flux and increased insolation. The coastally trapped Kelvin waves do not appear to get onto the Western Australian coast. Rather, the increased heat flux and Ekman-induced downwelling onto the northwest (NW) coast in the suppressed/easterly phase of the MJO drive an increase in sea surface temperature on the NW Australian shelf. The piling up of warm water and associated sea level rise on the NW shelf is then communicated down the Western Australian coast as a coastally trapped wave, resulting in an increase in the Leeuwin current. Thus we conclude that the MJO signal in sea level along the west coast of Australia does not result from transmission of equatorial waves onto the Western Australian coast, but rather a southward-propagating coastal trapped wave that is directly forced on the NW shelf through Ekman-induced vertical advection and surface heat fluxes in the easterly phase of the MJO. Additionally, subtropical coastal sea level variability is reinforced locally via a teleconnection of the MJO to the local meridional wind off the southwest Australian coast. Considering the capability to predict the MJO to about 4 weeks lead time plus the 2 weeks taken for the MJO signal on the NW shelf to influence sea level at Fremantle, the use of MJO forecasts in management of the Western Australian marine environment should be considered for future application.     

不同时间尺度上黄淮地区夏季降水异常成因及预测研究

利用1961—2006年中国降水资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、NOAA海表温度资料,分析了黄淮地区夏季降水的年代际和年际变化特征,研究了不同时间尺度上降水异常成因。结果表明,年代际尺度上,当太平洋年代际振荡处在暖(冷)位相时,南方涛动偏弱(强),黄淮地区夏季降水偏多(少)。在年际及以下尺度上,当印度洋北部海温偏高、南部偏低时,500 hPa位势高度场上,中高纬乌拉尔山以东和鄂霍次克海附近出现明显的双阻塞高压,副热带高压偏强;200 hPa风场上,西风急流略偏南,黄淮流域上空西风偏强,为反气旋环流;850 hPa风场上,黄淮流域上空出现西南—东北风的切变,使得急流出口区右侧次级环流的异常上升支恰好位于黄淮流域上空,高低空环流的这种配置导致了黄淮流域上空降水偏多。进一步分析发现,利用印度洋海温作为预测因子,建立预测模型,对黄淮流域降水年际变率有较高的预测能力。     

Study on the Trace Species in the Stratosphere and Their Impact on Climate

The trace gases （O3, HCl, CH4, H2O, NO, NO2） in the stratosphere play an important role, not only in the photochemical processes in which the ozone layer destroyed, but also in the radiative processes. In this paper, we review the works on the distribution and variation of the trace gases in the stratosphere and their impact on climate, which have been carried out at the University of Science and Technology of China in the recent 20 years. The Halogen Occultation Experiment （HALOE） data were used to analyse the distribution and variation of the mixing ratio of these trace gases and the temperature trends in the stratosphere in the most recent decade. And the reanalyzed National Centers of Environmental Prediction （NCEP）/NCAR data were also used to give the temperature trends and compared with the results from HALOE data. Numerical simulations were also carried out to study the impact of ozone depletion on the global climate. In this review, the distributions of the trace gases, especially those over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, are discussed, and the variations and trends for the trace gases in various levels in the stratosphere have been given for the most recent decade. The temperature variation and the cooling trend obtained from HALOE data in the middle and lower stratosphere for the last 13 years are significant, which agree well with the results from NCEP/NCAR data. While the temperature trend in the upper stratosphere in this period do not seem to have much cooling. The numerical simulations show that either the Antarctic ozone hole or the ozone valley over Qinghai-Xizang Plateau affect not only the temperature and circulation in the stratosphere, but also the temperature, pressure and wind fields in the troposphere, then lead to the global climate change.     

Parallels in reactionary argumentation in the US congressional debates on the abolition of slavery and the Kyoto Protocol

Today, the United States is as dependent on fossil fuels for its patterns of consumption and production as its South was on slavery in the mid-nineteenth century. That US congressmen tend to rationalise fossil fuel use despite climate risks to future generations just as Southern congressmen rationalised slavery despite ideals of equality is perhaps unsurprising, then. This article explores similarities between the rationalisation of slavery in the abolition debates and the rationalisation of ongoing emissions of greenhouse gases in the US congressional debates on the Kyoto Protocol.     

Computations on the influence of changing climate on the soil moisture and productivity in scots pine stands in southern and northern Finland

A model computation on the evaporative demand in relation to precipitation indicated that, under a changing climate with elevating temperatures, evapotranspiration could exceed the concurrent precipitation during the growing period in southern Finland (61° N), but not in northern Finland (66° N). This could reduce the supply of soil water to enable tree growth on sites with soil of low water holding capacity. This in turn could reduce the productivity of Scots pine more in southern Finland than in northern Finland. In northern Finland, the reduction in growth due to a limited supply of water was partly compensated by the enhanced growth due to a rise in temperature outside dry periods.     

定量研究雅安地形坡向坡度对降水分布的影响

利用四川省雅安市30 m分辨率基础高程数据,提取栅格的坡向和坡度参数,将雅安307个区域自动站在2017年汛期(6—9月)共50次的降水天气个例,分为16次大尺度降水和34次中小尺度降水,使用对应时次的欧洲中心细网格0.25°×0.25°再分析风场资料,根据不同的站点地形高度将风场合成平均风场,和各站点地形的坡向和坡度计算出其动力抬升作用,同时使用当天日照和天文太阳辐射值来计算地形的热力抬升作用,与对应降水过程的降水分布进行多元线性回归,根据回归的标准系数的大小确定各自变量对降水分布的影响,得出以下结论:(1)中小尺度降水中,地形的热力抬升作用对降水分布的影响作用最大,其次是海拔高度,地形的动力抬升作用在三者中对降水分布的影响最小;(2)在大尺度降水中刚好相反,地形的动力抬升对降水的分布影响作用最大,海拔次之,热力抬升作用在三者中影响作用最小;(3)日降水量最大值的站点海拔高度基本位于1 000 m左右,与抬升凝结高度对应较好;(4)从长期的统计来看,地形的动力作用和地表的植被情况对降水分布的影响最大。在实际预报工作用,根据不同的降水类型,关注不同的动力和热力作用对于判断降水分布大值区的位置有较好的参考作用。     

Influences of the NAO on the North Atlantic CO_2 Fluxes in Winter and Summer on the Interannual Scale

The differences in the influences of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the air–sea CO_2 fluxes (f CO_2) in the North Atlantic (NA) between different seasons and between different regions are rarely fully investigated. We used observation-based data of f CO_2, surface-ocean CO_2partial pressure (p CO_(2sea)), wind speed and sea surface temperature(SST) to analyze the relationship between the NAO and f CO_2 of the subtropical and subpolar NA in winter and summer on the interannual time scale. Based on power spectrum estimation, there are significant interannual signs with a 2–6 year cycle in the NAO indexes and area-averaged f CO_2 anomalies in winter and summer from 1980 to 2015. Regression analysis with the 2–6 year filtered data shows that on the interannual scale the response of the f CO_2 anomalies to the NAO has an obvious meridional wave-train-like pattern in winter, but a zonal distribution in summer. This seasonal difference is because in winter the f CO_2anomalies are mainly controlled by the NAO-driven wind speed anomalies, which have a meridional distribution pattern, while in summer they are dominated by the NAO-driven SST anomalies, which show distinct zonal difference in the subtropical NA. In addition, in the same season, there are different factors controlling the variation of p CO_(2sea)in different regions. In summer, SST is important to the interannual variation of p CO_(2sea)in the subtropical NA, while some biogeochemical variables probably control the p CO_(2sea) variation in the subpolar NA.     

中国三江源地区降水研究的进展与展望

三江源地区位于中国青藏高原腹地，被誉为“中华水塔”。该地区降水和空中云水资源的分布及变化对中国淡水资源的影响至关重要，且影响着三江源地区及下游的生态系统。本文回顾和总结了近几十年来三江源地区降水和空中云水资源的空间分布及时间演变特征、降水的影响机制以及未来降水趋势预测方面的研究成果，并给出了进一步研究展望。     

气候变化对环境与健康影响研究进展

气候变化对环境与健康的影响日益受到关注。分析了气候变化对大气环境、水环境和土壤环境的胁迫效应,阐述了气候变化对生态系统和人体健康的影响,并概述了气候变化对不同介质环境以及对生态系统与人体健康影响研究的进展。这一工作可以为今后气象与环境领域开展进一步研究提供基本框架。     

西太平洋暖池对西北太平洋季风槽和台风活动影响过程及其机理的最近研究进展

本文回顾和综述了近年来关于西太平洋暖池对西北太平洋热带气旋和台风（TCs）活动影响过程及其机理的研究进展。文中首先简单回顾了近年来关于西太平洋暖池热状态和菲律宾周围对流活动变化特征及其对与TCs活动有关的南海夏季风爆发和西太平洋副热带高压的季节内、年际变异的影响过程和机理的研究;然后,本文系统地回顾了近年来关于西太平洋暖池热状态通过西北太平洋季风槽影响TCs活动年际和年代际变化的影响过程及其机理的研究。此外,文中还指出了关于西太平洋暖池对西北太平洋上空季风槽和TCs活动变异的热力和动力作用需进一步深入研究的科学问题。     

夏季赤道西印度洋对大气的强迫作用及其机制研究

基于1982—2015年高分辨率海气资料,从海表面温度(Sea Surface Temperature, SST)和海表面风速相关关系的角度研究了年际尺度上赤道印度洋的海气关系。结果表明,印度洋的海气关系具有明显区域性和季节性特征,即整个印度洋除赤道东南印度洋和赤道西印度洋SST与海表风速在夏季(7—9月)为显著正相关关系,主要表现为海洋影响大气;其他地区和月份均为负相关关系,主要表现为大气对海洋的强迫作用。回归分析发现,夏季赤道西印度洋SST异常可能通过海平面气压调整机制影响海表面风场,即海温增温使边界层空气增暖,海表面风场辐合增强;反之则相反。此外,还利用AM2.1模式进行模拟试验,试验结果成功地再现了夏季赤道西印度洋海表面温度与海表风速之间的正相关关系。     

Comparisons of sulfate and nitrate production in clouds on the mid-Atlantic and Pacific Northwest Coasts of the United States

Measurements are presented of sulfate and nitrate production in clouds on the East and West coasts of the United States. Sulfate production measured on the mid-Atlantic Coast was significantly greater than on the Pacific Northwest Coast. Nitrate production was significant on the mid-Atlantic Coast but, on average, insignificant on the Pacific Northwest Coast. Measurements of sulfate and nitrate scavenging coefficients by clouds are also presented.     

西北干旱区水资源供需分析与可持续利用对策研究

水资源是西北干旱区人类生存和经济发展的基础资源及重要制约因素.作者在分析西北干旱区内陆河水资源条件、水资源开发利用现状、未来西北地区气候与水资源变化趋势、西北干旱区不同时期水资源供需平衡及主要水环境问题的基础上,提出了西北干旱区水资源可持续利用对策建议.     

贵阳地区气候季节变化对心脑血管发病人数占比的影响研究

利用1961—2020年贵阳市所辖8个地面站点逐日气象观测资料,根据中国气象行业气候季节划分标准（QX/T152—2012）对其进行气候季节划分并分析季节漂移现象,基于“黄金分割率”的人体舒适度计算方法分析贵阳地区人体舒适度等级变化,结合贵阳地区2016—2020年心脑血管疾病发病人数门诊资料就当地气候季节漂移和舒适度等级变化对居民心脑血管疾病发病人数占比影响进行探究。结果表明：（1）贵阳地区春季的起止时间呈提前态势,秋季的起止时间有推迟态势,由此造成当地夏季正逐渐延长,冬季正逐渐缩短,从年代际看,夏季从44 d增加到76 d,冬季从130 d缩短到100 d;春季和秋季在长度上无明显变化,但在时间段上有漂移现象,经计算,春季的起始时间漂移度为16.3%,结束时间漂移度为18.3%,秋季的起始时间漂移度为25.6%,结束时间漂移度为14.6%。（2）贵阳地区夏季心脑血管疾病发病人数日占比为0.24%,冬季发病人数日占比为0.31%,随着气候变暖造成的夏季增长、冬季缩短,对贵阳地区居民心脑血管疾病发病人数占-1.62%;不同舒适域等级日数的改变对心脑血管发病人数占-0.87%,两者均表明...     

重庆机场20年初雷特征统计与分析

本文对1991~2010年发生在重庆江北机场的初雷进行了统计分析, 发现初雷多出现在每年的3、4月份, 3月中下旬应是预报员重点关注的时间。初雷大多出现在下午到后半夜, 以前半夜到次日清晨最多。95%的初雷持续时间在2小时以内;初雷的强度总体较弱, 其中干雷和弱雷雨占80%。高空槽是重庆机场产生初雷的主要天气系统, 20次初雷中18次都有它的影响, 高空槽和冷空气共同作用下产生的初雷占55%。雷达平显回波强度在55~60dbz之间, 高显回波顶高基本都在11km以下。初雷在卫星云图上往往容易隐藏于冷锋云系和高空槽云系中, 加之对流性地特征并不明显, 给预报带来一定难度。      

宁夏中北部地区沙尘暴频率气候影响指数模型的建立

从形成沙尘暴天气的动力机制、热力条件及物质基础入手,定性地分析了月平均风速、湿润度指数、月地面温差及下垫面沙化程度对沙尘暴频率的影响,在此基础上借鉴最新研究进展,建立适合宁夏中北部地区沙尘暴频率气候影响指数模型,比较深入地分析了宁夏中北部地区气候因素对沙尘暴频率的影响。     

中国干旱事件成因和变化规律的研究进展与展望

干旱是世界上危害最广泛、最严重的自然灾害之一。中国地处典型季风气候区,干旱灾害的影响尤为突出。国际上对干旱问题已经进行了大量研究,逐渐由对干旱的定性和表象的认识发展到对干旱客观特征的定量认识和形成机理的深入揭示。自新中国成立以来,中国从以往仅对一些重大干旱事件的零散认识逐步发展到与国际干旱研究的完全接轨,干旱研究取得了长足进展。但是,目前对干旱研究取得的科学进展缺乏客观全面的整体认识,对干旱研究的发展方向尚未能充分洞察。为此,基于国际干旱研究现状,系统回顾了新中国成立以来中国干旱研究的历程,总结了中国干旱研究的重要进展,划分出了干旱事件的现象特征和时空分布、干旱形成机理及变化规律、干旱灾害风险和骤发性干旱研究兴起等中国干旱研究的4个主要发展过程。并从干旱事件特征、干旱时空分布、干旱变化规律、干旱成因、干旱影响机制、干旱风险形成过程以及干旱对气候变暖的响应、骤发性干旱的特殊性等方面归纳凝练了中国干旱研究的主要成果。同时,结合干旱研究的国际前沿、热点问题和发展趋势,科学分析了中国干旱研究的不足和问题,提出了中国未来干旱研究需要在加强典型干旱频发区综合性干旱科学试验研究的基础上,对干旱形成的多因子协同影响、陆-气作用对干旱形成发展的作用、骤发性干旱的判别及监测预测、各类干旱之间转换规律及其非一致性特征、关键影响期对农业干旱发展的作用、干旱对气候变暖响应的复杂性、干旱灾害风险的科学评估等重点科学问题上取得突破。      

边界层和陆面过程对中国暴雨影响研究的进展

总结了近年来我国学者关于边界层和陆面过程对中国暴雨影响的研究成果。此类研究主要应用中尺度数值模式,有的对边界层过程和陆面过程做敏感性试验,有的则对模式中边界层和陆面过程参数化作改进。结果表明：边界层和陆面过程对我国暴雨有明显影响。主要表现在影响暴雨的强度以及使暴雨中心位置有一定的变动,但决定暴雨发生发展的主要因子是大中尺度动力过程。对边界层和陆面过程的改进能有效改善数值模式对暴雨的模拟。     

Effects of Large-scale Modes of Atmospheric Circulation on the Regimes of Temperature and Precipitation in the Arctic

The monthly and seasonal anomalies of temperature and precipitation over the Arctic are considered depending on the global and regional patterns of atmospheric circulation. Ñlimate indices are used to identify patterns. The composite analysis allowed identifying the geographic regions where the influence of atmospheric circulation modes on temperature and precipitation is statistically significant. The contingency of atmospheric circulation patterns in the Northern Hemisphere was statistically estimated. Special attention is paid to the case studies where the extreme episodes of circulation indices are associated with the significant anomalies of air temperature and precipitation. The potential is demonstrated of the numerical simulation of extreme episodes on monthly and seasonal timescales with the global semi-Lagrangian model SL-AV developed in the Institute of Numerical Mathematics jointly with the Hydrometcenter of Russia.     

郑州市麦蚜发生气象条件分析及预报研究

以郑州市1998-2009年的麦蚜发生情况、气象观测资料为依据,结合麦蚜自身生物学特性,分析了郑州地区麦蚜发生特点和规律及其与光、温、水等环境气象条件之间的关系,并利用相关系数法进行因子普查,筛选出影响郑州市麦蚜发生和流行的主要地面气象因子为1月上旬平均气温、2月上旬降水、5月下旬日照和5月温雨系数。据此,利用当年上述地面气象因子预报值,建立了年度预报模型。模型历史拟合准确率为95.0%,对2010和2011年郑州市麦蚜发生程度的预报精度分别为92.2%和90.0%。