“In-site” regionalization to estimate an intensity-duration-frequency law: a solution to scarce spatial data in Spain

The study of annual maximum rainfall intensity is quite difficult in Spain due to its limited recording rain gauges and short record lengths. This problem can't be solved applying classical regional approach, since scarce stations and great climate variability prevents forming homogeneous regions. The present study tries a new way of applying regionalization, a method which improves robustness, joining series with different durations (≤1 hour, > 1 hour) at the same station to form regions. Besides, the SQRT-ETmáx distribution is used due to extreme rainfall intensity in the Mediterranean area is not under Gumbel law domain. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Analysis of streamflow droughts using fixed and variable thresholds

Hydrological drought analysis is very important in the design of hydrotechnical projects and water resources management and planning. In this study, a methodology is proposed for the analysis of streamflow droughts using the threshold level approach. The method has been applied to Yermasoyia semiarid basin in Cyprus based on 30‐year daily discharge data. Severity was defined as the accumulated water deficit volume occurring during a drought event, in respect with a target threshold. Fixed and variable thresholds (seasonal, monthly, and daily) were employed to derive the drought characteristics. The threshold levels were determined based on the Q₅₀ percentiles of flow extracted from the corresponding flow duration curves for each threshold. The aim is to investigate the sensitivity of these thresholds in the estimation of maximum drought severities for various return periods and the derivation of severity–duration–frequency curves. The block maxima and the peaks over threshold approaches were used to perform the extreme value analysis. Three pooling procedures (moving average, interevent time criterion, and interevent time and volume criterion) were employed to remove the dependent and minor droughts. The application showed that the interevent time and volume criterion is the most unbiased pooling method. Therefore, it was selected to estimate the drought characteristics. The results of this study indicate that monthly and daily variable thresholds are able to capture abnormal drought events that occur during the whole hydrological year whereas the other two, only the severe ones. They are also more sensitive in the estimation of maximum drought severities and the derivation of the curves because they incorporate better the effect of drought durations.     

A regional model of low flow for southern Taiwan

The primary purpose of this study is to develop regional models of the lower part of flow duration curves (LPFDCs) to synthesize low‐flow characteristics at ungauged sites in southern Taiwan. Because of the close relationship between low streamflow regimes and hydrogeological features, the model development first involved delimiting homogeneous hydrogeological regions by using two‐step cluster analysis. Each homogeneous region was then discriminated by an equation developed on the basis of its hydrogeological features, which was then used to determine which of three sets of regional LPFDC models would be appropriate for a particular ungauged site. Each of the three sets of regional LPFDC models were developed using both conventional multivariate statistical regression and fuzzy regression. Thirty‐four stream‐gauged watersheds located in southern Taiwan provide the data set. The study results reveal that the regional LPFDC models developed in this study could be applied reasonably at ungauged sites. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The contrasted evolution of high and low flows and precipitation indices in the Duero basin (Spain)

Abstract

Trends in high and low flows are valuable indicators of hydrological change because they highlight changes in various parts of the frequency distribution of streamflow series. This enables improved assessment of water availability in regions with high seasonal and inter-annual variability. There has been a substantial reduction in water resources in the Duero basin (Iberian Peninsula, Spain) and other areas of the Mediterranean region during the last 50 years, and this is likely to continue because of climate change. In this study, we investigated the evolution and trends in high and low flows in the Spanish part of the Duero basin, and in equivalent or closely-related precipitation indices for the period 1961–2005. The results showed a general trend of decrease in the frequency and magnitude of high flows throughout most of the basin. Moreover, the number of days with low flows significantly increased over this period. No clear relationship was evident between the evolution of high/low flows and changes in the distribution frequencies of the precipitation series. In contrast to what was expected, the number of days with heavy precipitation and the mean annual precipitation did not show significant trends across the basin, and the number of days without rainfall decreased slightly. The divergence between precipitation and runoff evolution was more accentuated in spring and summer. In the absence of trends in precipitation, it is possible that reforestation processes in the region, and increasing temperatures in recent decades, could be related to the decreasing frequency of high flows and the increasing frequency of low flows.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor S. Grimaldi

Citation Morán-Tejeda, E., López-Moreno, J.I., Vicente-Serrano, S.M., Lorenzo-Lacruz, J. and Ceballos-Barbancho, A., 2012. The contrasted evolution of high and low flows and precipitation indices in the Duero basin (Spain). Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (4), 591–611.     

Frequency analyses of annual extreme rainfall series from 5 min to 24 h

The parameter estimation methods of (1) moments, (2) maximum‐likelihood, (3) probability‐weighted moments (PWM) and (4) self‐determined PWM are applied to the probability distributions of Gumbel, general extreme values, three‐parameter log‐normal (LN3), Pearson‐3 and log‐Pearson‐3. The special method of computing parameters so as to make the sample skewness coefficient zero is also applied to LN3, and hence, altogether 21 candidate distributions resulted. The parameters of these distributions are computed first by original sample series of 14 successive‐duration annual extreme rainfalls recorded at a rain‐gauging station. Next, the parameters are scaled by first‐degree semi‐log or log‐log polynomial regressions versus rainfall durations from 5 to 1440 min (24 h). Those distributions satisfying the divergence criterion for frequency curves are selected as potential distributions, whose better‐fit ones are determined by a conjunctive evaluation of three goodness‐of‐fit tests. Frequency tables, frequency curves and intensity–duration–frequency curves are the outcome. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

由相叠低分辨投影数据重建高分辨图像

本文提出了由平行的相叠低分辨投影数据重建高分辨图像的两个新算法,即虚拟探测器法和直接重建法,并给出和分析了数值模拟结果。     

Assessment of the impact of spatio‐temporal attributes of wetlands on stream flows using a hydrological modelling framework: a theoretical case study of a watershed under temperate climatic conditions

Wetlands play a significant role on the hydrological cycle, reducing flood peaks through water storage functions and sustaining low flows through slow water release ability. However, their impacts on water resources availability and flood control are mainly driven by wetland type (e.g. isolated wetland—IW—and riparian wetland—RW) and location within a watershed. Consequently, assessing the qualitative and quantitative impact of wetlands on hydrological regimes has become a relevant issue for scientists as well as stakeholders and decision‐makers. In this study, the distributed hydrological model, HYDROTEL, was used to investigate the role and impact of the geographic distribution of isolated and RWs on stream flows of the Becancour River watershed of the St Lawrence Lowlands, Quebec, Canada. The model was set up and calibrated using available datasets (i.e. DEM, soil, wetland distribution, climate, land cover, and hydrometeorological data for the 1969–2010 period). Different wetland theoretical location tests (WTLT) were simulated. Results were used to determine whether stream flow parameters, related to peak flows and low flows, were related to: (i) geographic location of wetlands, (ii) typology of wetlands, and (iii) seasonality. The contribution of a particular wetland was assessed using intrinsic characteristics (e.g. surface area, typology) and extrinsic factors (e.g. location in the watershed landscape and seasonality). Through these investigations, the results suggest, to some extent, that both IWs and RWs impact landscape hydrology. The more IWs are located in the upper part of the watershed, the greater their effect on both on high flow damping and low flow support seems to be. The more RWs are connected to a main stream, the greater their effect is. Our modelling results indicate that local landscape conditions may influence the wetland effect; promoting or limiting their efficiency, and thus their impacts on stream flows depend on a combined effect of wetland and landscape attributes. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Extreme precipitation time trends in Ontario, 1960–2010

The impact of climate change on the behaviour of intensity–duration–frequency curves is critical to the estimation of design storms, and thus to the safe design of drainage infrastructure. The present study develops a regional time trend methodology that detects the impact of climate change on extreme precipitation from 1960 to 2010. The regional time trend linear regression method is fitted to different durations of annual maximum precipitation intensities derived from multiple sites in Ontario, Canada. The results show the relationship between climate change and increased extreme precipitation in this province. The regional trend analysis demonstrates, under nonstationary conditions arising from climate change, that the intensity of extreme precipitation increased decennially between 1.25% for the 30‐min storm and 1.82% for the 24‐h storm. A comparison of the results with a regional Mann–Kendall test validates the found regional time‐trend results. The results are employed to extrapolate the intensity–duration–frequency curves temporally and spatially for future decades across the province. The results of the regional time trend assessment help with the establishment of new safety margins for infrastructure design in Ontario. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Analysis of nonstationarity in low flow in the Loess Plateau of China

An approach for nonstationary low‐flow frequency analysis is developed and demonstrated on a dataset from the rivers on the Loess Plateau of China. Nonstationary low‐flow frequency analysis has drawn significant attention in recent years by establishing relationships between low‐flow series and explanatory variables series, but few studies have tested whether the time‐varying moments of low flow can be fully described by the time‐varying moments of the explanatory variables. In this research, the low‐flow distributions are analytically derived from the 2 basic explanatory variables—the recession duration and the recession coefficient—with the assumption that the recession duration and recession coefficient variables follow exponential and gamma distributions, respectively; the derived low‐flow distributions are applied to test whether the time‐varying moments of explanatory variables can explain the nonstationarities found in the low‐flow variable. The effects of ecosystem construction measures, that is, check dam, terrace, forest, and grassland, on the recession duration and recession coefficient are further discussed. Daily flow series from 11 hydrological stations from the Loess Plateau are used and processed with a moving average technique. Low‐flow data are extracted following the pit under threshold approach. Six of the 11 low‐flow series show significant nonstationarities at the 5% significance level, and the trend curves of the moments of low flow are in close agreement with the curves estimated from the derived distribution with time‐dependent moments of the recession duration and time‐constant moments of the recession coefficient. It is indicated that the nonstationarity in the low‐flow distribution results from the nonstationarity in the recession duration in all 6 cases, and the increase in the recession duration is resulted from large‐scale ecosystem constructions rather than climate change. The large‐scale ecosystem constructions are found to have more influence on the decrease in streamflow than on the increase in watershed storage, thus resulting in the reduction of low flow. A high return period for the initial fixed design value decreases dramatically with an increasing recession duration.     

The Frequency (or Time) -Temperature Equivalence of Relaxation in Saturated Rocks

Laboratory data on dry and saturated rocks show that pore fluid has the most important effect on rock attenuation. It is known that viscous and inertial coupling between the frame of a porous rock and its pore fluid dissipates seismic energy by conversion to heat and hence cause attenuation. We show that attenuation peaks, in saturated rock have the same property as that of typical thermally activated relaxations. In the frequency domain, a plot of attenuation versus frequency shows an obvious systematic shift to higher frequencies with increasing temperatures. Similarly, the attenuation versus temperature curve moves to higher temperature with increasing frequencies. The attenuation peaks are somewhat broader than that for a Zener relaxation. A Cole-Cole distribution of relaxation times closely matches the attenuations. This behavior can be explained theoretically by local flow mechanisms.     

高边坡桥墩倾斜机理分析与安全性评价

高陡边坡桥墩同时承受上部结构传递的竖向荷载和桩周土体的侧向压力,墩柱受力性能复杂,易出现病害,影响桥梁安全。结合某高速公路桥墩倾斜的工程实例,对高陡边坡桥墩倾斜的机理进行分析,并对倾斜桥墩的安全性能进行评价。通过考虑边坡土体和桥墩的相互作用,采用数值方法对高陡边坡桥墩的受力特征进行研究,分析了墩柱倾斜和开裂的机理,并基于不同荷载下墩柱的内力组合,对墩柱的承载力进行评定。结果表明,边坡潜在滑移面受扰动后产生的坡体推力是引起墩柱倾斜的主要原因,坡体推力与车辆荷载及汽车制动力组合后,桥墩的承载力将不能满足设计要求。     

用超限率分析法提取精河6.6级地震前的高频信号异常

2017年精河MS6.6地震震前,尼勒克台、巩留台和小泉沟台钻孔应变仪记录到了显著的高频信号异常变化,经现场异常落实确认异常是可靠的。本文通过超限率分析方法提取类似信号,定量描述了震前异常信号强度,结果表明地震前3个台不同程度出现超阈值现象,异常显著,其中2个台为临震变化。     

Low and high flow analyses and wavelet application for characterization of the Blue Nile River system

The low and high flow characteristic of the Blue Nile River (BNR) basin is presented. The study discusses low and high flow, flow duration curve (FDC) and trend analysis of the BNR and its major tributaries. Different probability density functions were fitted to better describe the low and high flows of the BNR and major tributaries in the basin. Wavelet analysis was used in understanding the variance and frequency‐time localization and detection of dominant oscillations in rainfall and flow. FDCs were developed, and low flow (below 50% exceedance) and high flow (over 75% exceedance) of the curves were analysed and compared. The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite‐based maps of monthly changes in gravity converted to water equivalents from 2003 to 2006 for February, May and September showed an increase in the moisture influx in the BNR basin for the month of September, and loss of moisture in February and May. It was also shown that 2004 and 2005 were drier with less moisture influx compared to 2003 and 2006. On the basis of the Kolmogorov‐Smirnov, Anderson‐Darling and Chi‐square tests, Gen. Pareto, Frechet 3P, Log‐normal, Log‐logistics, Fatigue Life and Phased Bi‐Weibull distributions best describe the low and high flows within the BNR basin. This will be beneficial in developing flow hydrographs for similar ungauged watersheds within the BNR basin. The below 50% and above 75% exceedance on the FDC for five major rivers in addition to the BNR showed different characteristics depending on size, land cover, topography and other factors. The low flow frequency analysis of the BNR at Bahir Dar showed 0·55 m³/s as the monthly low flow with recurrence interval of 10 years. The wavelet analysis of the rainfall (at Bahir Dar and basin‐wide) and flows at three selected stations shows inter‐ and intra‐annual variability of rainfall and flows at various scales. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

拉索式旋转电涡流阻尼器的理论模型及频域响应分析

惯容器是一种新型的振动控制装置,该装置可以将螺杆的轴向运动转换为黏滞材料和旋转质量的高速旋转运动,使阻尼器的阻尼效应和质量效应得到放大。基于惯容器原理以及电涡流原理,提出一种新型的拉索式旋转电涡流阻尼器,为结构被动控制提供了新的设计思路。为研究这种新型惯容系统的减振机理,对安装拉索式旋转电涡流阻尼器单层框架的力学模型进行了探讨。推导出了配置惯容系统单质点体系的动力表达式,并基于此表达式探讨在频域内该惯容系统关键参数对单质点体系位移、速度和加速度响应的影响。结果表明:这种拉索式旋转电涡流阻尼器可以起到放大质量的效果,惯容系统可以有效地减少单质点体系的位移、速度和加速度响应幅值。     

汶川震前几种低频事件波形分析

列举分析了国外文献所记载的几类低频事件.选择汶川MS8.0地震主断层附近四川省部分台网宽频带数据,采用相应频段,进行带通滤波处理,检测到4种类似的低频事件波形．分别为低频震颤与滑移事件（ETS事件）,深低频地震事件(LFE事件),深低频震动事件（DLF事件）,以及超低频震动事件（VLF事件）．定位分析实例证实,汶川震前的ETS和DLF等低频事件发生在主断层附近,表明大震发生之前龙门山断裂带附近有低频事件发生,主要为ETS和VLF两类事件及少量DLF事件．因有远震记录与LFE事件时间相近,无法确认此类事件是否存在．低频事件作为天然地震目录的补充,可为大震前兆和触发机理研究提供新的探索方向．      

柴达木盆地东部三湖地区四系米兰柯维奇旋回分析

自然伽马曲线包含丰富的地质信息,能够很好地反映由气候变化引起的地层旋回.本文采用频谱分析对柴达木盆地三湖地区第四系自然伽马测井曲线进行了系统分析.作为频谱分析方法之一的快速傅里叶变换能够将自然伽马曲线从时间（深度）域转换为频率域,然后分析每一个峰值频率的波长及其相互之间的比率关系,寻找那些波长比率与米兰柯维奇周期比率相同或相似的频率,从而捕获高频旋回信息.研究结果表明第四系地层中很好地保存了高频的米兰柯维奇旋回,这样的沉积旋回主要由地球轨道的周期性变化而导致的古气候变化引起的.偏心率周期引起的地层旋回厚度变化范围在92.00~115.00 m之间,黄赤交角引起的地层旋回厚度变化范围在24.55~63.43 m之间,岁差引起的地层旋回厚度变化范围在16.8~26.35 m之间.黄赤交角和岁差是影响该区米兰柯维奇旋回的主要因素,其中岁差的影响最大,而偏心率的影响最小.     

低频电磁辐射仪地震前的观测资料分析

例举了杭州地震台投入超低频数字地震电磁辐射仪（EMAOS-L）以来的两组临震前电磁辐射观测异常资料现象,并对观测资料进行了分析和探讨。     

强震动记录的低频截止频率自动搜索算法

本文针对传统方法在强震动记录处理中确定滤波低频截止频率效率较低的问题,提出一种确定滤波低频截止频率的自动搜索模型,并利用统计学习方法中的损失函数确定自动搜索模型流程的结束条件。基于2008年汶川和2013年芦山两次地震主震和余震获得的强震动记录,将自动搜索算法得出的结果与传统方法确定的低频截止频率进行比较,分析自动搜索算法产生误差的原因,进而提出自动搜索算法应遵循的原则和适用条件。结果表明该算法计算效率比传统方法有很大提升,特别适合海量强震动记录的批量处理。     

2015年阿拉善左旗5.8级地震前低频异常分析

针对2015年4月15日鄂尔多斯块体西北缘阿拉善左旗5.8级地震,利用内蒙古地震台网数字波形资料,采用快速傅里叶变换,分析2015年1月1日至4月15日震前频谱特征,意在判断震前是否存在低频异常信号。结果显示：①在5.8级地震前,东升庙、石嘴山及乌海地震台的地震波形低频信号存在相同现象;②低频信号在震前10天开始出现,并间断持续至发震;③低频信号出现的时间不连续,且持续时间间隔逐步缩短。