“十二五”时期浙江气象事业科学发展的思考

"十二五"时期是提高气象"四个能力"、建设"四个一流",不断增强公共气象服务能力,更好地服务惠及全省人民的小康社会建设的关键时期,也是推进国务院3号文件目标,深化和巩固气象现代化建设,推进基层气象事业发展改     

Effects of pollution control measures on carbon emission reduction in China: evidence from the 11th and 12th Five-Year Plans

SO₂ emissions have been declining in China recently. The emission reduction has mainly been achieved engineering reduction, structural reduction, and administrative reduction. In this paper, three key industries (electricity generation, steel, and cement) are selected to measure the effects of SO₂ emission reductions, the synergy effects of energy saving, and CO₂ emission reduction. The main results show that, during the period of the ‘11th Five-Year Plan’, engineering reduction of coal-fired power plant desulfurization played the most crucial role in the emission reduction; both engineering reduction and structural reduction can achieve low-pollution emission, but the contributions are not the same due to the divergence of relevant industries. Generally speaking, structural reduction can relatively easily achieve the synergy effect of the main pollutants and GHGs; in comparison, however, engineering reduction does not easily achieve the synergy effect. During the ‘13th Five-Year Plan’ period, the following plans are proposed: strengthening the front pollution control, increasing the engineering reduction, narrowing the difference between the pollution reduction engineering ability and the actual pollution reduction effect, and strengthening the supervisory and administrative effect of both the approval of the front end and the running of the middle end.

POLICY RELEVANCE

China is on the way to realize industrialization and urbanization. The climate-friendly environmental protection strategy is particularly important for rapidly developing countries such as China, because it can address air pollution and climate change issues at the same time in a more economically efficient manner. This paper selects three key industries to evaluate current pollutant control policy synergy effect from the ‘11th Five-Year Plan’ to the ‘12th Five-Year Plan’ period in order to give more sense to policy makers during 13th Five-Year Plan. The estimate of this study shows that the control of pollutants can generally have synergic control effects on GHG emissions and give detailed measures for 13th Five-Year Plan.     

The 16th Workshop on Antarctic Meteorology and Climate and 6th Year of Polar Prediction in the Southern Hemisphere Meeting

1. Overview In June 2021, the 16th Workshop on Antarctic Meteorology and Climate (WAMC) and the 6th Year of Polar Prediction in the Southern Hemisphere (YOPP-SH) Meeting (http://polarmet.osu.edu/WAMC;021/) were held online and hosted by the Polar Meteorology Group at Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus,Ohio (Fig. 1).     

"5.12"汶川特大地震重灾区泥石流滑坡气候特征分析

本文通过对汶川“5.12”特大地震重灾区1991-2003年的泥石流、滑坡等山地灾害的终初日、时空分布及其与降水的关系的分析,还对这次特大地震造成堰塞湖的滑坡面积进行了统计分析。得出了汶川特大地震重灾区的泥石流、滑坡的时空分布、多发时段与集中发生时段、终初日及其出现地点、泥石流、滑坡与当日雨量与前期降水的关系等特征方面新的认识。指出了“5.12”特大地震造成堰塞湖的滑坡面易发生群发性泥石流、滑坡等山地灾害的严重隐患。从而为抗震救灾和灾后重建工作提供科学依据。     

222团发展酿酒葡萄的气候条件分析

根据葡萄的生物学特性及其对气候条件的要求，对222团的气候资源进行初步分析，结合3年葡萄生产的实际，提出本地区适宜酿酒葡萄的生长。     

20世纪中国气候变暖的归因分析

 考虑不同排放情景和各种强迫因子分别组合3组试验,对试验结果采取多模式集合,并把3组数值试验模拟的20世纪中国年平均气温距平变化与观测序列作对比,对20世纪中国气候变暖进行了归因分析。结果表明：20世纪中国气候变暖与人类排放温室气体和硫酸盐气溶胶有密切的联系,尤以近50 a更明显。当模式综合考虑多种外部和内部强迫因子时,所模拟的20世纪中国年平均气温距平变化最接近实际观测。归因分析中还强调了海洋的重要作用。但是3组试验都没有模拟出20世纪20年代的变暖。     

20世纪中国气候变暖的归因分析

Progress in the attribution of climate warming in China for the 20th century is summarized. Three sets of climate model experiments including both coupled and uncoupled runs have been used in the attribution analyses. Comparison of climate model results with the observations proves that in the 20th century, especially in the recent half century, climate warming in China is closely related to the increasing of the anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, while sulfate aerosol should also have contributions. When both external forcing and natural forcing agents are prescribed, coupled climate models have better results in producing the observed variation of temperature in China. The role of oceanic forcing is also emphasized in the attribution analyses. The observed climate warming of China in the 1920s could not be reproduced in any set of climate model simulations.     

河西走廊东部沿沙漠地区作物种植结构调整方案

运用系统工程理论中的线性规划方法对地处河西走廊东部沙漠地区区民勤县的作物结构进行了调整，夏，秋作物比例由原来的1：0．65调整为1：1．81时，净产值比2000年增加6839．43万元，并根据不同区域气候特点和产量水平，提出了作物布局高速方案，对本地优势作物基地建设提供了科学依据。     

我国“十二五”时期建立碳交易市场的政策思考

基于对国际碳市场的调研和定量分析,建议我国碳市场建设之初,应首先选择电力、钢铁等对碳价格敏感的高排放强度行业进入碳市场;尽早开展跨地区交易,便于有效降低总体减排成本;同时碳排放总量上限的设定应与 “十二五”时期的碳强度下降目标挂钩;并在市场建立之初设定碳价格下限等。