基于支持向量机的元胞自动机及土地利用变化模拟

提出了利用遥感数据，并采用支持向量机来确定元胞自动机非线性转换规则的新方法。元胞自动机在模拟复杂地理现象时，需要采用非线性转换规则。目前元胞自动机主要采用线性方法来获取转换规则，在反映复杂的非线性地理现象时有一定的局限性。以城市扩张的模拟为例，将模拟城市系统的主要特征变量映射到Hilbert空间后，通过SVM建立最优分割超平面，分割超平面的分类决策函数由径向基核（Radial Basis Kernel）构造。利用历史遥感数据校正超平面的决策函数，确定城市元胞自动机的非线性转换规则，计算出城市发展概率。利用所提出的方法，对深圳市1988-2010年的城市发展进行了模拟，取得了较理想的模拟效果。研究结果表明，基于SVM-CA模型的模拟精度比传统MCE方法模拟精度高，MoranⅠ指数与实际更为接近。     

Modelling coastal land use change by incorporating spatial autocorrelation into cellular automata models

This paper presents a spatial autoregressive (SAR) method-based cellular automata (termed SAR-CA) model to simulate coastal land use change, by incorporating spatial autocorrelation into transition rules. The model captures the spatial relationships between explained and explanatory variables and then integrates them into CA transition rules. A conventional CA model (LogCA) based on logistic regression (LR) was studied as a comparison. These two CA models were applied to simulate urban land use change of coastal regions in Ningbo of China from 2000 to 2015. Compared to the LR method, the SAR model yielded smaller accumulated residuals that showed a random distribution in fitting the CA transition rules. The better-fitting SAR model performed well in simulating urban land use change and scored an overall accuracy of 85.3%, improving on the LogCA model by 3.6%. Landscape metrics showed that the pattern generated by the SAR-CA model has less difference with the observed pattern.     

一种基于机器学习的城市发展模拟元胞模型

利用元胞自动机(Cellular Automata,CA)模拟土地利用变化,已经成为认识和理解其复杂动态演化过程的有效手段.传统的元胞自动机基于线性转换规则,较难表达土地利用变化的非线性边界问题.本文研究利用最小二乘支持向量机方法(LS-SVM),将原空间下的非线性可分问题,通过高斯径向基核函数映射到高维特征空间,简化...     

Markov CA,Multi Regression,and Multiple Decision Making for Modeling Historical Changes in Kirkuk City,Iraq

The cellular automata (CA) model is an important tool in land use change studies. Swift increases in population and long-term expectations of rapid urbanization have led to extensive land use change, and normal living conditions have affected the natural resources of the land. This paper highlights and analyzes the historical urban changes in Kirkuk City, Iraq, considering repeated changes undergone by the state such change as government infrastructures, wars, and economic blockade. In this paper, an integrated model, built-in multi regression model, and multi-criteria evaluation were considered to improve the representation of CA transition rules. Environmental and socioeconomic factors were used to produce Suitable Maps (SMs). These SMs were practicalities to create factor layers and weight usage, rating method process for variance expert decision-making groups, and geographic information systems for the periods 1984, 1990, 2000, and 2010. The roots of the equation (R²) values are compared and these values are chosen to produce a good model of suitable maps. The approach used in this study provides a mechanism for monitoring suitability maps in Kirkuk. Furthermore, the model Markov CA is implemented and evaluated. The results indicate that the model, its related concepts performs sufficiency     

土地利用变化研究中的细胞自动机与灰色局势决策

把细胞自动机和灰色局势决策结合起来对土地利用变换机制进行模拟。实验证明,基于灰色局势决策规则的细胞自动机是对土地利用变换机制从宏观和微观角度进行模拟的有效方法。     

Improving urban cellular automata performance by integrating global and geographically weighted logistic regression models

In many of the conventional cellular automata (CA) models, particularly Urban‐CA which are used for urban growth, the spatial heterogeneities and local differences of the land use conversion processes are ignored. Global logistic regression (LR) is a popular model employed to define the transition rules of Urban‐CA. By considering the local characteristics, Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression (GWLR) provides interesting capabilities for urban growth modelling. In this research, in addition to using GWLR in the definition of transition rules, the advantages of integrating GWLR and LR for urban growth simulation were evaluated; these have not been considered in previous studies. Local and global probabilities obtained from the calibration of GWLR and LR were combined to define the transition rules of an Urban‐CA. Urban growth was simulated in the Islamshahr sub‐region located southwest of Tehran, Iran for the two periods 1992‐1996 and 1996‐2002, and data from these periods were used for training and testing the prediction abilities, respectively. In the first period, GWLR showed good performance and a significant contribution to the enhancement of the simulation performance, but in the second period, the effectiveness of LR on the prediction accuracy increased. Due to their complementary roles, the integration of the GWLR and LR models resulted in improved simulation performance in both periods.     

Dynamic land use change simulation using cellular automata with spatially nonstationary transition rules

The dynamic relationships between land use change and its driving forces vary spatially and can be identified by geographically weighted regression (GWR). We present a novel cellular automata (GWR-CA) model that incorporates GWR-derived spatially varying relationships to simulate land use change. Our GWR-CA model is characterized by spatially nonstationary transition rules that fully address local interactions in land use change. More importantly, each driving factor in our GWR model contains effects that both promote and resist land use change. We applied GWR-CA to simulate rapid land use change in Suzhou City on the Yangtze River Delta from 2000 to 2015. The GWR coefficients were visualized to highlight their spatial patterns and local variation, which are closely associated with their effects on land use change. The transition rules indicate low land conversion potential in the city’s center and outer suburbs, but higher land conversion potential in the inner near suburbs along the belt expressway. Residual statistics show that GWR fits the input data better than logistic regression (LR). Compared with an LR-based CA model, GWR-CA improves overall accuracy by 4.1% and captures 5.5% more urban growth, suggesting that GWR-CA may be superior in modeling land use change. Our results demonstrate that the GWR-CA model is effective in capturing spatially varying land transition rules to produce more realistic results, and is suitable for simulating land use change and urban expansion in rapidly urbanizing regions.     

Simulation of landscape spatial layout evolution in rural-urban fringe areas: a case study of Ganjingzi District

In recent years, the rapid expansion of urban spaces has accelerated the mutual evolution of landscape types. Analyzing and simulating spatio-temporal dynamic features of urban landscape can help to reveal its driving mechanisms and facilitate reasonable planning of urban land resources. The purpose of this study was to design a hybrid cellular automata model to simulate dynamic change in urban landscapes. The model consists of four parts: a geospatial partition, a Markov chain (MC), a multi-layer perceptron artificial neural network (MLP-ANN), and cellular automata (CA). This study employed multivariate land use data for the period 2000–2015 to conduct spatial clustering for the Ganjingzi District and to simulate landscape status evolution via a divisional composite cellular automaton model. During the period of 2000–2015, construction land and forest land areas in Ganjingzi District increased by 19.43% and 15.19%, respectively, whereas farmland, garden lands, and other land areas decreased by 43.42%, 52.14%, and 75.97%, respectively. Land use conversion potentials in different sub-regions show different characteristics in space. The overall land-change prediction accuracy for the subarea-composite model is 3% higher than that of the non-partitioned model, and misses are reduced by 3.1%. Therefore, by integrating geospatial zoning and the MLP-ANN hybrid method, the land type conversion rules of different zonings can be obtained, allowing for more effective simulations of future urban land use change. The hybrid cellular automata model developed here will provide a reference for urban planning and policy formulation.     

A Patch‐based Cellular Automaton for Simulating Land‐use Changes at Fine Spatial Resolution

While cellular automata have become popular tools for modeling land‐use changes, there is a lack of studies reporting their application at very fine spatial resolutions (e.g. 5 m resolution). Traditional cell‐based CA do not generate reliable results at such resolutions because single cells might only represent components of land‐use entities (i.e. houses or parks in urban residential areas), while recently proposed entity‐based CA models usually ignore the internal heterogeneity of the entities. This article describes a patch‐based CA model designed to deal with this problem by integrating cell and object concepts. A patch is defined as a collection of adjacent cells that might have different attributes, but that represent a single land‐use entity. In this model, a transition probability map was calculated at each cell location for each land‐use transition using a weight of evidence method; then, land‐use changes were simulated by employing a patch‐based procedure based on the probability maps. This CA model, along with a traditional cell‐based model were tested in the eastern part of the Elbow River watershed in southern Alberta, Canada, an area that is under considerable pressure for land development due to its proximity to the fast growing city of Calgary. The simulation results for the two models were compared to historical data using visual comparison, K_simulation indices, and landscape metrics. The results reveal that the patch‐based CA model generates more compact and realistic land‐use patterns than the traditional cell‐based CA. The K_simulation values indicate that the land‐use maps obtained with the patch‐based CA are in higher agreement with the historical data than those created by the cell‐based model, particularly regarding the location of change. The landscape metrics reveal that the patch‐based model is able to adequately capture the land‐use dynamics as observed in the historical data, while the cell‐based CA is not able to provide a similar interpretation. The patch‐based approach proposed in this study appears to be a simple and valuable solution to take into account the internal heterogeneity of land‐use classes at fine spatial resolutions and simulate their transitions over time.     

A grey wolf optimizer–cellular automata integrated model for urban growth simulation and optimization

This article proposes a grey wolf optimizer (GWO) and cellular automata (CA) integrated model for the simulation and spatial optimization of urban growth. A new grey wolf‐inspired approach is put forward to determine the urban growth rules of CA cells by using the GWO algorithm, which is suitable for solving optimization problems. The inspiration for GWO comes from the social leadership of wolf groups, as well as their hunting behavior. The GWO‐optimized urban growth rules for CA describe the relationship between the spatial variables and the urban land‐use status for each cell in the formation of “if–then.” The GWO algorithm and CA model are then integrated as the GWO–CA model for urban growth simulation and optimization. By taking Nanjing City as an example, the simulation accuracy in terms of urban cells is 86.6%, and the kappa coefficient is 0.715, indicating that the GWO algorithm is efficient at obtaining urban growth rules from spatial variables. The validation of the GWO–CA model also illustrates that it performs well in terms of the simulation and spatial optimization of urban growth, and can further contribute to urban planning and management.     

Enhancing a GIS Cellular Automata Model of Land Use Change: Bayesian Networks, Influence Diagrams and Causality

Cellular Automata (CA) models at present do not adequately take into account the relationship and interactions between variables. However, land use change is influenced by multiple variables and their relationships. The objective of this study is to develop a novel CA model within a geographic information system (GIS) that consists of Bayesian Network (BN) and Influence Diagram (ID) sub‐models. Further, the proposed model is intended to simplify the definition of parameter values, transition rules and model structure. Multiple GIS layers provide inputs and the CA defines the transition rules by running the two sub‐models. In the BN sub‐model, land use drivers are encoded with conditional probabilities extracted from historical data to represent inter‐dependencies between the drivers. Using the ID sub‐model, the decision of changing from one land use state to another is made based on utility theory. The model was applied to simulate future land use changes in the Greater Vancouver Regional District (GVRD), Canada from 2001 to 2031. The results indicate that the model is able to detect spatio‐temporal drivers and generate various scenarios of land use change making it a useful tool for exploring complex planning scenarios.     

Assessing the effect of temporal dynamics on urban growth simulation: Towards an asynchronous cellular automata

Time is a fundamental dimension in urban dynamics, but the effect of various definitions of time on urban growth models has rarely been evaluated. In urban growth models such as cellular automata (CA), time has typically been defined as a sequence of discrete time steps. However, most urban growth processes such as land‐use changes are asynchronous. The aim of this study is to examine the effect of various temporal dynamics scenarios on urban growth simulation, in terms of urban land‐use planning, and to introduce an asynchronous parcel‐based cellular automata (AParCA) model. In this study, eight different scenarios were generated to investigate the impact of temporal dynamics on CA‐based urban growth models, and their outputs were evaluated using various urban planning indicators. The obtained results show that different degrees of temporal dynamics lead to various patterns appearing in urban growth CA models, and the application of asynchronous (event‐driven) CA models achieves better simulation results than synchronous models.     

Simulating urban growth in a megalopolitan area using a patch‐based cellular automata

Although traditional cellular automata (CA)‐based models can effectively simulate urban land‐use changes, they typically ignore the spatial evolution of urban patches, due to their use of cell‐based simulation strategies. This research proposes a new patch‐based CA model to incorporate a spatial constraint based on the growth patterns of urban patches into the conventional CA model for reducing the uncertainty of the distribution of simulated new urban patches. In this model, the growth pattern of urban patches is first estimated using a developed indicator that is based on the local variations in existing urban patches. The urban growth is then simulated by integrating the estimated growth pattern and land suitability using a pattern‐calibrated method. In this method, the pattern of new urban patches is gradually calibrated toward the dominant growth pattern through the steps of the CA model. The proposed model is applied to simulate urban growth in the Tehran megalopolitan area during 2000–2006–2012. The results from this model were compared with two common models: cell‐based CA and logistic‐patch CA. The proposed model yields a degree of patch‐level agreement that is 23.4 and 7.5% higher than those of these pre‐existing models, respectively. This reveals that the patch‐based CA model simulates actual development patterns much better than the two other models.     

Knowledge Transfer for Large‐Scale Urban Growth Modeling Based on Formal Concept Analysis

Cellular automata (CA) are useful for studies on urban growth and land‐use changes. Although various methods have been developed to define transition rules, modeling urban growth of large areas remains a tough challenge owing to heterogeneous geographical features. To address the problem, we present a novel method based on the combination of Formal Concept Analysis (FCA) and knowledge transfer techniques. FCA is used to solicit association rules among cities within a large area. This method can provide a theoretical basis for the knowledge transfer process. A cutting‐edge algorithm called TrAdaBoost is then integrated with the commonly‐used Logistic‐CA as the modeling framework. The proposed method is applied to the urban growth modeling of Guangdong Province, a large region with 21 cities in China, from 2005 to 2008. Compared with traditional methods, this method can achieve better results at the provincial and local levels, according to the experiments. The combination of FCA and knowledge transfer is expected to provide a useful tool for calibrating large‐scale urban CA models.     

Calibration of cellular automata models using differential evolution to simulate present and future land use

A key issue in cellular automata (CA) modeling is the minimization of the differences between the actual and simulated patterns, which can be mathematically formulated as an objective function. We develop a new hybrid model (termed DE‐CA) by integrating differential evolution (DE) into CA to solve the objective function and retrieve the optimal CA parameters. Constrained relations among factors were applied in DE to generate different sets of CA parameters for prediction of future scenarios. The DE‐CA model was calibrated using historical spatial data to simulate 2016 land use in Kunming and predict multiple scenarios to the year 2026. Assessment of quantitative accuracy shows that DE‐CA yields 92.4% overall accuracy, where 6.8% is the correctly captured urban growth; further, the model reported only 5.0% false alarms and 2.6% misses. Regarding the simulation ability, our new CA model performs as well as the widely applied genetic algorithm‐based CA model, and outperforms both the logistic regression‐based CA model and a no‐change NULL model. We projected three possible scenarios for the year 2026 using DE‐CA to adequately address the baseline urban growth, environmental protection and urban planning to show the strong prediction ability of the new model.     

利用生物地理学优化算法获取城市扩展元胞自动机模型参数

提出了一种基于生物地理学优化算法寻找城市扩展元胞自动机（cellular automata,CA）模型最佳参数的方法。转换规则制定及相应权重参数获取是构建城市扩展CA的核心和难点。生物地理学优化算法（biogeography-based optimization,BBO）通过模拟生物物种在栖息地的分布、迁移和灭绝来求解优化问题。利用BBO算法自动获取城市扩展CA模型参数值,构建BBO-CA模型进行城市扩展模拟实验,并与粒子群算法（particle swarm optimization,PSO）、蚁群算法（ant colony optimization,ACO）、遗传算法（genetic algorithm,GA）及逻辑回归（logistic regression,LR）等方法相比较。结果表明,BBO算法具有较好的收敛性,可有效地快速自动寻找城市扩展CA模型最佳参数组合,获取的空间变量权重参数较为合理;BBO-CA模型明显提升了城市用地模拟精度,城市用地模拟精度为72.5%,相对PSO、ACO、GA、LR各算法分别提升了1.1%、1.2%、2.7%和4.0%,Kappa系数达到0.700,分别提升了0.015、0.016、0.034和0.046,且整体空间布局与实际情况更为接近,验证了应用BBO算法的可行性与优势。     

Integration of neural networks and cellular automata for urban planning

This paper presents a new type of cellular automata (CA) model for the simulation of alternative land development using neural networks for urban planning. CA models can be regarded as a planning tool because they can generate alternative urban growth. Alternative development patterns can be formed by using different sets of parameter values in CA simulation. A critical issue is how to define parameter values for realistic and idealized simulation. This paper demonstrates that neural networks can simplify CA models but generate more plausible results. The simulation is based on a simple three-layer network with an output neuron to generate conversion probability. No transition rules are required for the simulation. Parameter values are automatically obtained from the training of network by using satellite remote sensing data. Original training data can be assessed and modified according to planning objectives. Alternative urban patterns can be easily formulated by using the modified training data sets rather than changing the model.     

Integration of neural networks and cellular automata for urban planning

This paper presents a new type of cellular automata (CA) model for the simulation of alternative land development using neural networks for urban planning. CA models can be regarded as a planning tool because they can generate alternative urban growth. Alternative development patterns can be formed by using different sets of parameter values in CA simulation. A critical issue is how to define parameter values for realistic and idealized simulation. This paper demonstrates that neural netowrks can simplify CA models but generate more plausible results. The simulation is based on a simple three-layer network with an output neuron to generate conversion probability. No transition rules are required for the simulation. Parameter values are automatically obtained from the training of network by using satellite remote sensing data. Original training data can be assessed and modified according to planning objectives. Alternative urban patterns can be easily formulated by using the modified training data sets rather than changing the model.     

Simulating urban growth processes by integrating cellular automata model and artificial optimization in Binhai New Area of Tianjin,China

This study presents an optimized algorithm into the cellular automata (CA) models for urban growth simulation in Binhai New Area of Tianjin, China. The optimized CA model by particle swarm optimization (PSO) was compared with the logistic-based cellular automata (LOGIT-CA) model to see the effects of the simulation. The study evaluated the stochastic disturbance in the development of urban growth using the Monte Carlo method; the coefficient d determined the state of urban growth. The validation was conducted by both cross-tabulation test and structural measurements. The results showed that the simulations of PSO-CA were better than LOGIT-CA model, indicating an improvement in the spatio-temporal simulation of urban growth and land use changes in study area. Since the simulations reached their best values when the coefficient was between 1 and 2, the urban growth in the study area was in the period of conversion from spontaneous growth to edge-expansion and infilling growth.     

Deriving urban dynamic evolution rules from self-adaptive cellular automata with multi-temporal remote sensing images

Cellular automata (CA) have proven to be very effective for simulating and predicting the spatio-temporal evolution of complex geographical phenomena. Traditional methods generally pose problems in determining the structure and parameters of CA for a large, complex region or a long-term simulation. This study presents a self-adaptive CA model integrated with an artificial immune system to discover dynamic transition rules automatically. The model’s parameters are allowed to be self-modified with the application of multi-temporal remote sensing images: that is, the CA can adapt itself to the changed and complex environment. Therefore, urban dynamic evolution rules over time can be efficiently retrieved by using this integrated model. The proposed AIS-based CA model was then used to simulate the rural-urban land conversion of Guangzhou city, located in the core of China’s Pearl River Delta. The initial urban land was directly classified from TM satellite image in the year 1990. Urban land in the years 1995, 2000, 2005, 2009 and 2012 was correspondingly used as the observed data to calibrate the model’s parameters. With the quantitative index figure of merit (FoM) and pattern similarity, the comparison was further performed between the AIS-based model and a Logistic CA model. The results indicate that the AIS-based CA model can perform better and with higher precision in simulating urban evolution, and the simulated spatial pattern is closer to the actual development situation.