气温的天气和气候记忆性特征分析:以济南和青岛为例

气温的天气和气候记忆性特征分析对于提高气候预测水平具有积极意义。利用济南和青岛1961—2020 年逐日、月和年平均气温资料,运用自相关性函数和标准化频率分布分析了上述时间序列的气温记忆性特征和概率分布特征,并利用结构函数法建立了月、年平均气温距平与日平均气温距平之间的分数阶导数关系。结果表明:(1)济南和青岛的月、年平均气温距平呈现不同程度的记忆性特征,其中年平均气温距平相比于月平均气温距平具有更好的记忆性。(2)济南和青岛的月、年平均气温距平与日平均气温距平之间存在分数阶导数关系,济南和青岛相应的月、年尺度阶数分别为0. 529、0. 665 和0. 553、0. 791,两地的月尺度阶数相近,但青岛略大,青岛的年尺度阶数大于济南,即青岛月和年平均气温距平的记忆性大于济南。(3)济南和青岛的月和年平均气温距平相比于日平均气温距平有不同程度的长尾特征,长尾特征反映了极值温度发生的概率。     

近50年我国江淮流域气候变化

为了详实地了解江淮流域的气候变化和进一步做好短期气候预测,利用近50a气温和降水资料,从平均值和变率两方面研究了我国江淮流域的气候变化.结果表明:(1) 近50a来江淮流域气候变化的主要特征是气候变暖,与全国变暖的趋势一致;降水呈不显著的增长趋势.温度和降水由低基本态向高基本态过渡,目前均处于高气候基本态下;(2) 无论是温度还是降水,其变率随时间而变,目前均处于高气候变率时段,要注意高基本态和高变率结合易导致的高温、洪涝等极端气候事件;(3) 温度在1986年前后发生了一次突变,降水在1968年前后发生了一次突变.无论是温度还是降水,突变后均比突变前有所增加.根据突变分析可将江淮流域近50a气候变化过程划分为相对冷干阶段(20世纪50～60年代)-相对冷湿阶段(70～80年代)-相对暖湿阶段(90年代至今).     

千里岩的气温变化特征及其与西北太平洋副热带高压的关系

本文根据１９６０～１９９４年千里岩和青岛月平均气温资料，分析了千里岩与青岛３５年来气温的年、季变化特征及差别，发现３５年来，千里岩和青岛的年、季平均气温均呈变暖趋势，但千里岩增温幅度较青岛小。从分析中发现，与气温变暖趋势相对应，西北太平洋副热带高压（以下简称副高）面积、强度指数的年、季变化也呈明显的增强、增大趋势。且年平均气温与冬季副高面积指数相关最显著。最后依此关系建立回归方程，并预测了１９９６年千里岩年平均气温的变化趋势。     

青岛近百年气温变化特征

为深入了解气候变化规律及探讨气候变化原因,根据1900～2002年青岛月平均气温资料,分析了103年以来青岛的气温变化特征。分析结果表明：百年来,青岛平均气温呈明显上升趋势,各季节也是增温趋势,冬季增温最大。最高气温和最低气温也都呈明显上升趋势,其中最低气温的变化幅度大于最高气温的变化幅度。对比2次暖锋期的增温特点发现,20世纪40年代的增温主要是春秋季节的增温造成的,而20世纪90年代以后的增温期冬季成为主导因素,同时都是最低气温贡献大,即增温都是在夜间。日较差则呈下降趋势。青岛的气温在1988年发生了突变。另外,青岛气温还有准20年周期振荡的特征。     

胶州湾气象水文要素的长期变化

利用线性回归方法对胶州湾1898—2008年气温和降水、1962—2008年的水温和盐度四个气象水文要素的长期变化规律进行了分析。结果表明,百年来胶州湾地区气温的变化呈现波动上升趋势。从1920年前后到1950年的30年间,年平均气温的年变率为0.028℃,从20世纪60年代起至今,年平均气温的年变率为0.031℃。升...     

青岛气温变化趋势及其预测

根据青岛月平均气温资料（１８９８－１９９２年），研究了９５年来青岛年与季气温变化趋势。指出９５年来青岛年与季平均气温变化是上升的。其中春季增温最显著，冬季次之，秋夏增温最小。同时，根据年温度的变化趋势确定了气候转换期；１９０４－１９２９年为变冷期；１９２５－１９５３年为变暖期；１９５４－１９７９年为变冷期；１９８０年以后又是变暖期，预测该期的最暖时间将出现在９０年代初期。     

海阳50a气候特征分析

根据海阳1961—2010年气温、降水量、日照、相对湿度等气象资料,应用气候倾向率、Mann-Kendall突变检测法、滑动t检验法,对海阳市气候变化及规律进行了分析。结果表明:历年平均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温、极端最低气温在过去的50a间呈显著的上升趋势,历年极端最高气温的上升趋势不显著,年代际变化特征突出;年降水量呈缓慢的减少趋势,变化趋势不显著,年代际间分布不均,变化较大,年降水量减少的原因是夏季和秋季降水减少;日照时数呈显著减少趋势,发生突变的时间点是2004年;年平均相对湿度呈现显著减少趋势,发生突变的时间点是1977年,秋季湿度减少最为明显。     

23万年以来青藏高原甜水海湖岩心铁元素的气候记录刍议

青藏高原甜水海湖钻孔岩心是一套连续和完整的第四纪沉积层序,通过对沉积地球化学信息的综合分析,初步建立了２３万年来的气候曲线,揭示了几次较大的降温信息,约１５万年以前,年平均气温为－１．６３°,气候温干,沉积以氧化环境为主导,在６阶段后期,呈现气候波动频繁,沉积环境不稳定,进入５阶段,即进入末次间冰期,气温下降,年平均气温较６阶段降低２．８３℃,约７．４万年以来,即进入末次冰期,４阶段气温较５ａ亚段     

济南、威海成山头近60a冬季平均气温的小波分析

利用济南和威海成山头1951—2006年的冬季气温的观测资料,用MHF（墨西哥帽函数）小波分析了两地冬季气温的多时间尺度变化特征并对两地出现的极端气候进行了一定分析。结果表明近60a来,济南冬季年平均气温（0．82℃）比威海成山头冬季年平均气温（0．53℃）高,济南和威海成山头两地冬季气温倾向率分别为0．431℃／10a和0．359℃／10a;两地在较大时间尺度上,突变点位置比较接近,在较小时间尺度上,演变略有差异,济南冬季气温变化比威海成山头略快;在振动周期上,济南的冬季平均气温变化以5,18a左右周期振动较强,威海成山头的冬季平均气温变化则以4,18a左右为较强周期振动;在未来一段时间内,两地冬季气温将保持偏高状态,但都有转低的趋势;出现极端气候时有明显的群发性和阶段性,成山头出现极端气候时情况更加恶劣。     

近百年中国北方沿海地区气温年代际变化及趋势预测

以青岛为例,利用近百年的月平均气温资料,通过统计的方法分析了中国北方沿海地区四季气温变化,分析了气温年代际变化与太平洋海温以及太平洋海温年代际振荡(PDO)的关系,着重分析了气温正负位相年北半球平均环流形势和海平面气温。最后利用CMIP5模式数据预测青岛气候未来的变化趋势。结果表明:中国北方近海地区气温呈上升趋势,冬季温度上升幅度最大,夏季升温最小,气温变化与附近海域海温显著相关。各季节气温有年代际和50a变化周期,在年代际变化周期上与PDO周期有较好的同期和滞后相关性,春季和夏季尤为明显。青岛气温正负位相年平均环流形势明显相反,并且与北半球海平面气温异常联系紧密。全球变暖背景下,未来青岛气温仍将持续上升。     

Palynological Evidence on Climate Changes in the East China Sea During Mid and Late Holocene

The pollen analysis of DGKS9617 core in the East China Sea (covering about the last 6800 years) shows five obvious pollen assemblages and seven sub-assemblages. Combined with the sediment and the result of diatom analysis, the climate changes are reconstructed during the Middle and Late Holocene. Corresponding to the pollen assemblages, the climate shifts just as follows: Assemblage Ⅰ-Warm and Dry Stage, Assemblage Ⅱ-Cool and Humid Stage, Assemblage Ⅲ-Hot and Dry Stage (the mean annual temperature is 2～3 ℃ higher than that today ), Assemblage Ⅳ-Cool and Humid Stage, Assemblage Ⅴ-Wann and Dry Stage. The third stage is divided into three substages i.e. a slight colder and dry one, a slight wanner and humid one and a slight warmer and dry one. During the fifth stage, the climate becomes similar to that today with three warm substages and two cool substages.     

青岛近百年气候变化趋势的初步分析

人类活动造成的气候变暖及海平面升高问题已成为当前海洋学与气侯学研究的热点。在全球及全国大部分地区海平面升高的总趋势下,青岛地区海平面不是上升而是下降了。本文根据青岛近百年的年平均气温和年降水量资料分析了青岛气候变化趋势。     

1988年以来气候控制的南流江河口红树林扩张

基于卫星图像重建了近30年来广西南流江河口区一片红树林的扩张过程,结果表明：自1988年至2013年,该红树林向海显著扩张,面积由60公顷增加为134公顷。红树林的自然扩张并非渐进式,而是集中发生于某些特定时期。为了研究控制红树林扩张的动力机制,本文研究了近几十年来红树林潮坪高程演变和区域气候变化过程,同时也分析了水动力状况和营养盐供应的变化情况。研究表明：在滩面高程达到红树林幼苗存活最低高程的前提下,台风强度、频率和冬季低温是控制该红树林扩张的关键因素。红树林湿地的显著扩张只发生在台风强度和频率较低、冬季较为温暖的时期。而在台风频率和强度较高、冬季较为寒冷的时期,由于红树林幼苗难以存活,红树林则难以扩张。在过去几十年间,由于该区域适宜红树林扩张的时期较为罕见,从而导致了红树林扩张过程的不连续性。与气候因素相比,营养供应和水动力状况并不是控制该红树林扩张的关键因素。     

How soon will climate records of the 20th century be broken according to climate model simulations?

What will happen to local record values of temperature and precipitation in a world with ongoing global warming? Here we first examine how many of the observed local temperature maxima of 1901–2006 occurred in the years 2001–2006 and compare the observations with model simulations. Then we study whether, and how soon, the models simulate the climate records of the 20th century to be broken in the ongoing 21st century.
In 27% of our analysis area, the highest annual mean temperatures of the whole period 1901–2006 were observed in 2001–2006. For the 22 climate models in our study, this fraction varies from 17% to 70%, with a multimodel mean of 40%. In simulations based on the SRES A1B emissions scenario, the highest annual mean temperature of the 20th century is exceeded on average in 99% of the global area by the year 2080. The same number for the highest (lowest) annual precipitation total is 60% (43%). Monthly and seasonal temperature and precipitation records are also analysed, and the geographical distributions of record value occurrence are related to the distributions of time mean climate change and magnitude of interannual variability.     

Historical storminess and climate ‘see-saws’ in the North Atlantic region

The existence of a well-defined climate ‘see-saw’ across the North Atlantic region and surrounding areas has been known for over 200 years. The occurrence of severe winters in western Greenland frequently coincides with mild winters in northern Europe. Conversely, mild winters in western Greenland are frequently associated with cold winters across northern Europe. Whereas this ‘see-saw’ is normally discussed in terms of air temperature and pressure differences, here we explore how the climate ‘see-saw’ is reflected in records of historic storminess from Scotland, NW Ireland and Iceland. It is concluded that the stormiest winters in these regions during the last ca. 150 years have occurred when western Greenland temperatures have been significantly below average. In contrast, winters of reduced storminess have coincided with winters when air temperatures have been significantly above average in western Greenland. This reconstruction of winter storminess implies a relationship between chronologies of coastal erosion and the history of North Atlantic climate ‘see-saw’ dynamics with sustained winter storminess, and hence increased coastal erosion, taking place when the Icelandic low pressure cell is strongly anchored within the circulation of the northern hemisphere. Considered over the last ca. 2000 years, it would appear that winter storminess and climate-driven coastal erosion was at a minimum during the Medieval Warm Period. By contrast, the time interval from ca. AD 1420 until present has been associated with sustained winter storminess across the North Atlantic that has resulted in accelerated coastal erosion and sand drift.     

Climate change: A looming challenge for fisheries management in southern Africa

It is now widely accepted that the earth's climate is changing under the influence of anthropogenic activities. A number of key changes in the earths atmosphere and ocean have already been detected (including increasing global surface temperature, rising sea levels, increases in incident UV radiation, changes in average annual precipitation, and increases in the variability and intensity of extreme weather events, among others), while speculation regarding future changes is rife. The implications of global climate change for fish stocks and fisheries is of concern to many scientists, but little effort has been made to incorporate observed changes or event such thinking into management models and paradigms. This paper summarises available evidence linking the production of key greenhouse gases with observed and future projected changes in the earth's climate, specifically in respect of a number of key atmospheric and oceanographic parameters likely to affect fish stocks in South Africa (temperature, pressure/wind fields, CO₂ concentration, rainfall, mean sea level and UV radiation). It also explores likely effects of these changes on fish stocks and key fishery sectors. In addition, it highlights a number of positive steps that be taken by management authorities to ensure that they and the fishing communities for which they are responsible are in the best possible position to deal with the effects of changing global climate as they become manifest.     

台湾海峡西岸地面风气候变化分析

利用1961—2005年台湾海峡西部沿岸平潭、崇武、东山及厦门等4个气象代表站的地面风观测资料,通过计算各代表站的年、季、月平均风速气候趋势系数和各风向频率趋势,较详细地分析了近45a来台湾海峡西部沿岸地面风的气候变化特征．结果表明：（1）近45a来各代表站年平均风速呈明显减小趋势,其中秋、冬、春季平均风速减小趋势明显,夏季风速减小趋势不明显．（2）海峡西部沿岸主导风向有沿海岸线由北向南顺转的特点．（3）海峡西部沿岸地面风速在上世纪80年代初存在着气候突变现象,80年代中期后年平均风速减小明显．     

Impact of climate variability on an east Australian bay

The climate along the subtropical east coast of Australia is changing significantly. Rainfall has decreased by about 50 mm per decade and temperature increased by about 0.1 °C per decade during the last 50 years. These changes are likely to impact upon episodes of hypersalinity and the persistence of inverse circulations, which are often characteristic features of the coastal zone in the subtropics and are controlled by the balance between evaporation, precipitation, and freshwater discharge. In this study, observations and results from a general ocean circulation model are used to investigate how current climate trends have impacted upon the physical characteristics of the Hervey Bay, Australia. During the last two decades, mean precipitation in Hervey Bay deviates by 13% from the climatology (1941–2000). In the same time, the river discharge is reduced by 23%. In direct consequence, the frequency of hypersaline and inverse conditions has increased. Moreover, the salinity flux out of the bay has increased and the evaporation induced residual circulation has accelerated. Contrary to the drying trend, the occurrence of severe rainfalls, associated with floods, leads to short-term fluctuations in the salinity. These freshwater discharge events are used to estimate a typical response time for the bay.