Evaluation of the twenty-first century RCM simulations driven by multiple GCMs over the Eastern Mediterranean–Black Sea region

In this study, human-induced climate change over the Eastern Mediterranean–Black Sea region has been analyzed for the twenty-first century by performing regional climate model simulations forced with large-scale fields from three different global circulation models (GCMs). Climate projections have been produced with Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A2, A1FI and B1 scenarios, which provide greater diversity in climate information for future period. The gradual increases for temperature are widely apparent during the twenty-first century for each scenario simulation, but ECHAM5-driven simulation generally has a weaker signal for all seasons compared to CCSM3 simulations except for the Fertile Crescent. The contrast in future temperature change between the winter and summer seasons is very strong for CCSM3-A2-driven and HadCM3-A2-driven simulations over Carpathians and Balkans, 4–5 °C. In addition, winter runoff over mountainous region of Turkey, which feeds many river systems including the Euphrates and Tigris, increases in second half of the century since the snowmelt process accelerates where the elevation is higher than 1,500 m. Moreover, analysis of daily temperature outputs reveals that the gradual decrease in daily minimum temperature variability for January during the twenty-first century is apparent over Carpathians and Balkans. Analysis of daily precipitation extremes shows that positive trend is clear during the last two decades of the twenty-first century over Carpathians for both CCSM3-driven and ECHAM5-driven simulations. Multiple-GCM driven regional climate simulations contribute to the quantification of the range of climate change over a region by performing detailed comparisons between the simulations.     

Assimilation of satellite altimeter data in a primitive-equation model of the Azores–Madeira region

The aim of this study is to implement satellite altimetric assimilation into a high-resolution primitive-equation ocean model and check the validity and sensitivity of the results. Beyond this paper, the remote objective is to get a dynamical tool capable of simulating the surface ocean processes linked to the air–sea interactions as well as to perform mesoscale ocean forecasting. For computational cost and practical reasons, this study takes place in a 1000 by 1000 sq km open domain of the Canary basin. The assimilation experiments are carried out with the combined TOPEX/POSEIDON and ERS-1 data sets between June 1993 and December 1993. The space–time domain overlaps with in situ data collected during the SEMAPHORE experiment and thus enables an objective validation of the results. A special boundary treatment is applied to the model by creating a surrounding recirculating area separated from the interior by a buffer zone. The altimetric assimilation is done by implementing a reduced-order optimal interpolation algorithm with a special vertical projection of the surface model/data misfits. We perform a first experiment with a vertical projection onto an isopycnal EOF representing the Azores Current vertical variability. An objective validation of the model's velocities with Lagrangian float data shows good results (the correlation is 0.715 at 150 dbar). The question of the sensitivity to the vertical projection is addressed by performing similar experiments using a method for lifting/lowering of the water column, and using an EOF in Z-coordinates. Some comparisons with in situ temperature data do not show any significant difference between the three projections, after five months of assimilation. However, in order to preserve the large-scale water characteristics, we felt that the isopycnal projection was a more physically consistent choice. Then, the complementary character of the two satellites is assessed with two additional experiments which use each altimeter data sets separately. There is an evidence of the benefit of combining the two data sets. Otherwise, an experiment assimilating long-wavelength bias-corrected CLS altimetric maps every 10 days exhibits the best correlation scores and emphasizes the importance of reducing the orbit error and biases in the altimetric data sets. The surface layers of the model are forced using realistic daily wind stress values computed from ECMWF analyses. Although we resolve small space and time scales, in our limited domain the wind stress does not significantly influence the quality of the results obtained with the altimetric assimilation. Finally, the relative effects of the data selection procedure and of the integration times (cycle lengths) is explored by performing data window experiments. A value of 10 days seems to be the most satisfactory cycle length.     

Current Trends in Atmospheric Circulation in the Azov–Black Sea Region

The daily parameters characterizing the field of surface air pressure from 1960 to 2014 are used for assessing the current trends in atmospheric circulation over the Azov–Black Sea region. It was revealed that the decrease in mean air pressure and the weakening of northeastern air trans port which was typical of the atmospheric circulation in this region in the previous period (1960–1990), occurred from 1991–1993 to 2005–2007. In recent 7–8 years, the ongoing air pressure drop is accom panied by the intensification of northeastern air transport.     

Observing upper troposphere–lower stratosphere climate with radio occultation data from the CHAMP satellite

High quality observations of the atmosphere are particularly required for monitoring global climate change. Radio occultation (RO) data, using Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) signals, are well suited for this challenge. The special climate utility of RO data arises from their long-term stability due to their self-calibrated nature. The German research satellite CHAllenging Minisatellite Payload for geoscientific research (CHAMP) continuously records RO profiles since August 2001 providing the first opportunity to create RO based climatologies for a multi-year period of more than 5 years. A period of missing CHAMP data from July 3, 2006 to August 8, 2006 can be bridged with RO data from the GRACE satellite (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment). We have built seasonal and zonal mean climatologies of atmospheric (dry) temperature, microwave refractivity, geopotential height and pressure with 10° latitudinal resolution. We show representative results with focus on dry temperatures and compare them with analysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Although we have available only about 150 CHAMP profiles per day (compared to millions of data entering the ECMWF analyses) the overall agreement between 8 and 30 km altitude is in general very good with systematic differences <0.5 K in most parts of the domain. Pronounced systematic differences (exceeding 2 K) in the tropical tropopause region and above Antarctica in southern winter can almost entirely be attributed to errors in the ECMWF analyses. Errors resulting from uneven sampling in space and time are a potential error source for single-satellite climatologies. The average CHAMP sampling error for seasonal zonal means is <0.2 K, higher values occur in restricted regions and time intervals which can be clearly identified by the sampling error estimation approach we introduced (which is based on ECMWF analysis fields). The total error of this new type of temperature climatologies is estimated to be <0.5 K below 30 km. The recently launched Taiwan/U.S. FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC constellation of 6 RO satellites started to provide thousands of RO profiles per day, but already now the single-satellite CHAMP RO climatologies improve upon modern operational climatologies in the upper troposphere–lower stratosphere and can act as absolute reference climatologies for validation of more bias-sensitive climate datasets and models.     

Teleconnection–extreme precipitation relationships over the Mediterranean region

The relationship between five teleconnection patterns (North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), East Atlantic/Western Russian (EAWR) pattern, Scandinavian (SCAND) pattern, and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)) and the frequency of occurrence of days (per month) with extreme precipitation in the Euro-Mediterranean region is investigated with National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis data. To quantify the teleconnection–precipitation relationships over the Euro-Mediterranean region, linear correlations are calculated between the monthly teleconnection indices for the five patterns and time series at each grid point of the monthly frequency of days with extreme precipitation, focusing on daily precipitation amounts that exceed a particular threshold value (a 90 % threshold is used). To evaluate dynamical processes, the teleconnection indices are also correlated with the frequencies of days with extreme values of dynamic tropopause pressure and precipitable water. The former quantity is used as a proxy for potential vorticity intrusions and the latter to identify regions of enhanced moisture. The results of this analysis indicates positive, statistically significant correlations between the NAO, AO, and SCAND indices and the frequency of extreme precipitation in the western Mediterranean; positive (negative) correlations between the EAWR index and the extreme precipitation frequency in the eastern (western) Mediterranean; and a positive correlation between the Niño3.4 index and the extreme precipitation frequency over the Iberian Peninsula and the Middle East. For all of the teleconnection patterns other than ENSO, the dynamic tropopause pressure correlation patterns resemble those for the precipitation. In contrast, similar precipitation and precipitable water correlation patterns are observed only for ENSO. These findings suggest that the teleconnections affect the interannual variation of the frequency of days with extreme precipitation over a large part of the Euro-Mediterranean region through their impact on the spatial distribution of regions with enhanced potential vorticity and air moisture.     

Specific features of heat exchange between the Black Sea and the atmosphere in winter in 1971–1991

The reanalysis ofthree-dimensional fields of water temperature and velocity ofcurrents in the Black Sea in January–March in 1971–1991 is used for studying the spatial distribution of sea surface temperature, heat content of the upper layer, and heat fluxes on the sea surface near the Caucasian coast and the southern coast of Crimea. It is demonstrated that a warm current in the upper layer of the sea and the high values of the heat flux from the sea to the atmosphere are observed in these areas in winter. The possible effect of the above features on the interannual variability of winter air temperature in Sochi and Yalta is assessed.     

Atmospheric transparency over central Yakutia from the sun photometer data in 2004—2014

The transparency of the atmosphere over the central part of Yakutia is classified using ground-based observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD) for the period of 2004-2014. The annual variations in monthly mean values of AOD are compared with satellite monitoring data. It is revealed that every year the days with the values of AOD corresponding to the class III of atmospheric transparency (turbid atmosphere) made up 25-30% of the total number of AOD measurement days.     

Seasonal characteristics of waves in the southeastern part of the Baltic Sea in 2008–2009

Presented are the characteristics of waves in the southeastern part of the Baltic Sea obtained from the results of continuous instrumental observations in 2008–2009 on the offshore oil-and-gas platform. Discussed are the conditions and prerequisites for the formation of extreme waves.     

Changes in the Brewer-Dobson circulation for 1980–2009 revealed in MERRA reanalysis data

Changes in the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) during the 30 years 1980–2009 are investigated using Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis data. The mass streamfunction that is induced by wave forcings in the transformed Eulerian-mean (TEM) equation through the downward-control principle is used as a proxy for the BDC. The changes in the BDC are investigated using two aspects: the wave propagation conditions in the stratosphere and the wave activity in the upper troposphere. They are compared in the first (P1) and second (P2) 15-year periods. The resolved wave forcing, expressed by the Eliassen-Palm (EP) flux divergence (EPD), is significantly enhanced during the December-January-February (DJF) season in P2 in both the Northern Hemisphere (NH) high latitudes and the Southern Hemisphere (SH) mid- and high latitudes. The increased zonal mean zonal wind at high latitudes in the SH, caused by ozone depletion, leads to an upward shift of the Rossby-wave critical layer and this allows more transient planetary waves to propagate into the stratosphere. In the NH, the enhanced EPD in DJF leads to an increase in the frequency of Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) events. The gravity wave drag (GWD) is smaller than the EPD and the change in it between the two time periods is insignificant. The residual term in the TEM equation is similar to the GWD in the two periods, but its change between the two periods is as large as the change in the EPD. Among the four components of the EP flux at 250 hPa, the meridional heat flux played a dominant role in the enhancement of the BDC in P2.     

Estimating the trends and variability of atmospheric action centers over the Asian-Pacific region in summer in 1950–1979 and 1980–2012

The trend significance and the residual variability of integral atmospheric characteristics in the atmospheric action centers in the Asian-Pacific region in summer in 1950-1979 and 1980-2012 are computed. Basic differences are revealed between trends in circulation and residual variability in the atmo spheric action centers in the surface pressure field and in the field of geopotential H ₅₀₀ for these time periods. Increase in significant trends for the whole period and decrease in residual variability were found in the area of the Asian low in 1980-2012. A significant trend was observed in June and September in the area of the Hawaiian high. The summer Far Eastern low has intensified in recent years. The Okhotsk high strengthened in May and weakened in June, August, and September in the 2000s.     

Sea surface temperature variability in the shelf‐slope region of the Northwest Atlantic

Abstract

Sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the shelf‐slope region of the northwest Atlantic is described and then explained in terms of latent and sensible heat exchange with the atmosphere. The basic data are primarily engine‐intake temperature measurements made by merchant ships over the period 1946–80. The data have been grouped by month and area and an empirical orthogonal function analysis has been performed to determine the dominant modes of variation. The first two modes account for 44% of the total variance. The first mode corresponds to in‐phase changes of SST from the Grand Banks to Mid‐Atlantic Bight; the second mode corresponds to opposite changes of SST on the Grand Banks and Mid‐Atlantic Bight. The time‐dependent amplitudes of these large‐scale modes have pronounced low‐frequency components; the associated changes in SST are typically 3°C. It is also shown that winter anomalies last longer than summer anomalies; their typical decay scales are 6 and 3 months, respectively.

The onshore component of geostrophic wind is significantly correlated with the amplitude of the first mode in winter. We note the strong land‐sea contrast of temperature and humidity in this region during winter and explain the wind‐SST correlation in terms of latent and sensible heat exchanges. The second mode (i.e. the difference in SST between the Grand Banks and Mid‐Atlantic Bight) also appears to be related to changes in atmospheric circulation during the winter. A stochastic model for mixed layer temperature is finally used to model the SST autocorrelation functions. Following Ruiz de Elvira and Lemke (1982), it includes a seasonally‐varying feedback coefficient. The model successfully reproduces the extended persistence of winter anomalies with physically realistic parameter values but it cannot account for the summer reinforcement of winter anomalies on the Scotian Shelf. We speculate that this is due to the occasional entrainment of water, cooled the previous winter, into the shallow summer mixed layer.     

Decadal Change of the Linkage between Sea Ice over the Barents–Kara Seas in November–December and the Stratospheric Polar Vortex in Subsequent January

The linkage between the sea ice concentration(SIC) over the Barents–Kara Seas in November–December(SIC＿BKS＿ND) and the stratospheric polar vortex(SPV) in subsequent January(SPV＿Jan) is investigated. It is found that SIC＿BKS＿ND is positively(negatively) correlated with SPV＿Jan for the period 1979–1995(1996–2009).Further analyses reveal that, during 1979–1995(1996–2009), SIC＿BKS＿ND is relatively higher(lower), accompanied by smaller(larger) interannual variability with its center shifting northwes...     

High resolution re-analysis for the Baltic Sea region during 1965–2005 period

Regional reanalysis database BaltAn65+ comprising meteorological data for Baltic Sea region for the time period 1965–2005 is described. For data assimilation and hindcasts, the numerical weather prediction model HIRLAM 7.1.4 is applied, with 11 km horizontal and 60-layer vertical resolution. Reanalysis includes three-dimensional weather analysis data. Standard surface observations and meteorological soundings together with ship and buoy measurements from WMO observational network are used in analysis. Boundary fields are obtained from ECMWF ERA-40 global re-analysis. The BaltAn65+ can be considered as a regional refinement of ERA-40 for Baltic Sea region, providing the historical weather and climate data with enhanced spatial resolution, which is main motivation for creation of this novel reanalysis database.     

Analysis of rainfall characteristics of the Madden–Julian oscillation using TRMM satellite data

Rainfall characteristics of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) are analyzed primarily using tropical rainfall measuring mission (TRMM) precipitation radar (PR), TRMM microwave imager (TMI) and lighting imaging sensor (LIS) data. Latent heating structure is also examined using latent heating data estimated with the spectral latent heating (SLH) algorithm.The zonal structure, time evolution, and characteristic stages of the MJO precipitation system are described. Stratiform rain fraction increases with the cloud activity, and the amplitude of stratiform rain variation associated with the MJO is larger than that of convective rain by a factor of 1.7. Maximum peaks of both convective rain and stratiform rain precede the minimum peak of the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) anomaly which is often used as a proxy for the MJO convection. Stratiform rain remains longer than convective rain until ∼4000 km behind the peak of the mature phase. The stratiform rain contribution results in the top-heavy heating profile of the MJO.Associated with the MJO, there are tri-pole convective rain top heights (RTH) at 10–11, ∼7 and ∼3 km, corresponding to the dominance of afternoon showers, organized systems, and shallow convections, respectively. The stratiform rain is basically organized with convective rain, having similar but slightly lower RTH and slightly lags the convective rain maximum. It is notable that relatively moderate (∼7 km) RTH is dominant in the mature phase of the MJO, while very tall rainfall with RTH over 10 km and lightning frequency increase in the suppressed phase. The rain-yield-per flash (RPF) varies about 20–100% of the mean value of ∼2–10 × 10⁹ kg fl⁻¹ over the tropical warm ocean and that of ∼2–5 × 10⁹ kg fl⁻¹ over the equatorial Islands, between the convectively suppressed phase and the active phase of MJO, in the manner that RPF is smaller in the suppressed phase and larger in the active phase.     

Summer weather characteristics and periodicity observed over the period 1888–2013 in the region of Belgrade,Serbia

With the goal of finding summer climate patterns in the region of Belgrade (Serbia) over the period 1888–2013, different techniques of multivariate statistical analysis were used in order to analyze the simultaneous changes of a number of climatologic parameters. An increasing trend of the mean daily minimum temperature was detected. In the recent decades (1960–2013), this increase was much more pronounced. The number of days with the daily minimum temperature greater or equal to 20 °C also increased significantly. Precipitation had no statistically significant trend. Spectral analysis showed a repetitive nature of the climatologic parameters which had periods that roughly can be classified into three groups, with the durations of the following: (1) 6 to 7 years, (2) 10 to 18 years, and (3) 21, 31, and 41 years. The temperature variables mainly had one period of repetitiveness of 5 to 7 years. Among other variables, the correlations of regional fluctuations of the temperature and precipitation and atmospheric circulation indices were analyzed. The North Atlantic oscillation index had the same periodicity as that of the precipitation, and it was not correlated to the temperature variables. Atlantic multidecadal oscillation index correlated well to the summer mean daily minimum and summer mean temperatures. The underlying structure of the data was analyzed by principal component analysis, which detected the following four easily interpreted dimensions: More sunshine-Higher temperature, Precipitation, Extreme heats, and Changeable summer.     

Relationship between atmospheric heat source over the Tibetan Plateau and precipitation in the Sichuan–Chongqing region during summer

NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data and a 47-yr daily precipitation dataset from a network of 42 rain gauges are used to analyze the atmospheric heat source (<Q₁>) anomaly over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and its influence on the summer precipitation anomaly in the Sichuan–Chongqing region. Results show that the vertical advection of <Q₁> over the central TP is a major factor affecting summer precipitation in the Sichuan–Chongqing region. When the vertical advection of <Q₁> over the central TP is strengthened, the South Asian high shifts further than normal to the south and east, the western Pacific subtropical high shifts further than normal to the south and west, and the Indian low weakens. This benefits the transport of warm moist air from the low latitude oceans to the Sichuan–Chongqing region. Correspondingly, in the high latitudes, two ridges and one trough form, which lead to cool air moving southward. These two air masses converge over the Sichuan–Chongqing region, leading to significant precipitation. In contrast, when the vertical advection of <Q₁> over the central TP is weakened, the South Asian high moves to the north and west, the subtropical high moves eastward and northward, and the Indian low strengthens. This circulation pattern is unfavorable for warm air advection from the south to the Sichuan–Chongqing region, and the cool air further north cannot move southward because of the presence of two troughs and one ridge at high latitude. Thus, ascent over the Sichuan–Chongqing region is weakened, resulting in less precipitation.     

A Heavy Sea Fog Event over the Yellow Sea in March 2005： Analysis and Numerical Modeling

In this paper, a heavy sea fog episode that occurred over the Yellow Sea on 9 March 2005 is investigated. The sea fog patch, with a spatial scale of several hundred kilometers at its mature stage, reduced visibility along the Shandong Peninsula coast to 100 m or much less at some sites. Satellite images, surface observations and soundings at islands and coasts, and analyses from the Japan Meteorology Agency （JMA） axe used to describe and analyze this event. The analysis indicates that this sea fog can be categorized as advection cooling fog. The main features of this sea fog including fog area and its movement axe reasonably reproduced by the Fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model （MM5）. Model results suggest that the formation and evolution of this event can be outlined as： （1） southerly warm/moist advection of low-level air resulted in a strong sea-surface-based inversion with a thickness of about 600 m; （2） when the inversion moved from the warmer East Sea to the colder Yellow Sea, a thermal internal boundary layer （TIBL） gradually formed at the base of the inversion while the sea fog grew in response to cooling and moistening by turbulence mixing; （3） the sea fog developed as the TIBL moved northward and （4） strong northerly cold and dry wind destroyed the TIBL and dissipated the sea fog. The principal findings of this study axe that sea fog forms in response to relatively persistent southerly waxm/moist wind and a cold sea surface, and that turbulence mixing by wind shear is the primary mechanism for the cooling and moistening the marine layer. In addition, the study of sensitivity experiments indicates that deterministic numerical modeling offers a promising approach to the prediction of sea fog over the Yellow Sea but it may be more efficient to consider ensemble numerical modeling because of the extreme sensitivity to model input.