A time-space based approach for mapping rainfall-induced shallow landslide hazard

A rainfall-induced shallow landslide is a major hazard in mountainous terrain, but a time-space based approach is still an unsettled issue for mapping rainfall-induced shallow landslide hazards. Rain induces a rise of the groundwater level and an increase in pore water pressure that results in slope failures. In this study, an integrated infinite slope analysis model has been developed to evaluate the influence of infiltration on surficial stability of slopes by the limit equilibrium method. Based on this new integrated infinite slope analysis model, a time-space based approach has been implemented to map the distributed landslide hazard in a GIS (Geographic Information Systems) and to evaluate the shallow slope failure induced by a particular rainfall event that accounts for the rainfall intensity and duration. The case study results in a comprehensive time-space landslide hazard map that illustrates the change of the safety factor and the depth of the wetting front over time.     

Are real-world shallow landslides reproducible by physically-based models? Four test cases in the Laternser valley,Vorarlberg (Austria)

In contrast to the complex nature of slope failures, physically-based slope stability models rely on simplified representations of landslide geometry. Depending on the modelling approach, landslide geometry is reduced to a slope-parallel layer of infinite length and width (e.g., the infinite slope stability model), a concatenation of rigid bodies (e.g., Janbu’s model), or a 3D representation of the slope failure (e.g., Hovland’s model). In this paper, the applicability of four slope stability models is tested at four shallow landslide sites where information on soil material and landslide geometry is available. Soil samples were collected in the field for conducting respective laboratory tests. Landslide geometry was extracted from pre- and post-event digital terrain models derived from airborne laser scanning. Results for fully saturated conditions suggest that a more complex representation of landslide geometry leads to increasingly stable conditions as predicted by the respective models. Using the maximum landslide depth and the median slope angle of the sliding surfaces, the infinite slope stability model correctly predicts slope failures for all test sites. Applying a 2D model for the slope failures, only two test sites are predicted to fail while the two other remain stable. Based on 3D models, none of the slope failures are predicted correctly. The differing results may be explained by the stabilizing effects of cohesion in shallower parts of the landslides. These parts are better represented in models which include a more detailed landslide geometry. Hence, comparing the results of the applied models, the infinite slope stability model generally yields a lower factor of safety due to the overestimation of landslide depth and volume. This simple approach is considered feasible for computing a regional overview of slope stability. For the local scale, more detailed studies including comprehensive material sampling and testing as well as regolith depth measurements are necessary.     

强降雨作用下堆积层滑坡稳定性分析

强降雨作用易造成堆积层滑坡发生,带来严重的生命财产损失。基于Green-Ampt（GA）模型,同时考虑湿润锋以上饱和带渗流作用,推导了一种新的滑坡降雨入渗函数,弥补了GA模型只适用于无限长坡的不足。为考虑降雨入渗对土体条块强度的影响,采用整体抗剪强度准则评价滑坡稳定性,并在受力分析时考虑了湿润锋以上饱和带渗透力作用,建立了滑坡稳定性系数表达式。研究结果表明：滑坡降雨入渗的尺寸效应非常明显,湿润锋扩展速率随着坡长的增大而增大,当滑坡无限长时新降雨入渗模型与GA模型计算结果相同,说明GA模型是新模型的一个特例。此外,降雨初期,滑坡稳定性下降较快;随着降雨的持续,稳定性下降速率逐渐放缓。与模型试验结果对比表明,提出的降雨入渗模型和评价方法计算结果与试验揭示的现象一致,证明了该方法的可靠性。     

An extreme learning machine approach for slope stability evaluation and prediction

This paper presents slope stability evaluation and prediction with the approach of a fast robust neural network named the extreme learning machine (ELM). The circular failure mechanism of a slope is formulated based on its material, geometrical and environmental parameters such as the unit weight, the cohesion, the internal friction angle, the slope inclination, slope height and the pore water ratio. The ELM is proposed to evaluate the stability of slopes subjected to potential circular failures by means of prediction of the factor of safety (FS). Substantial slope cases collected worldwide are utilized to illustrate and assess the capability and predictability of the ELM on slope stability analysis. Based on the mean absolute percentage errors and the correlation coefficients between the original and predicted FS values, comparisons are demonstrated between the ELM and the generalized regression neural network (GRNN) as well as the prediction models generated from the genetic algorithms. Moreover, sensitivity analysis of the slope parameters and the ELM model parameters is carried out based on the two utilized evaluation functions. The time expense of the ELM on slope stability analysis is also investigated. The results prove that the ELM is advantageous to the GRNN and the genetic algorithm based models in the analysis of slope stability. Hence, the ELM can be a promising technique for approaching the problems in geotechnical engineering.     

Charnockite bedrock,Chennai coast,Tamil Nadu: Micromorphology and geochemical signatures in stages of the weathering processes

Occurrences of landslide are most common and critical issue in North-East India. The various types of slope failures have been affected most part of slopes and road section between Malidor to Sonapur area (approx 30 Km) along NH-44 within Jaintia hills district, Meghalaya, India. These slope failures causes considerable loss of life and property along with many inconveniences such as disruption of traffic along highways. The unscientific excavations of rock slopes for road widening or construction purposes may weaken the stability of the slopes. The rocks exposed in the area are highly jointed sandstone and shale of Barail Group of Oligocene age. The Sonapur landslide is most dangerous and destructive rock fall-cum debris flow. The present study includes the kinematic analysis of the slope to assess the potential failure directions as the rocks are highly jointed in some parts of road cut sections. The continuous slope mass rating (CSMR) technique has been applied for slope stability analysis at five vulnerable locations. Kinematic analysis indicates mainly wedge type of failure along with few toppling and planar failures. These failure required immediate treatment to prevent the slide and long term stability of the slope.     

降雨过程中边坡临界滑动场

降雨入渗过程中孔隙水压力的升高与基质吸力的降低引起边坡稳定性的下降,是导致边坡滑塌的主要诱导因素。利用饱和-非饱和渗流有限元计算得到的孔隙水压力场,基于Fredlund提出的非饱和土抗剪强度理论,对边坡临界滑动场进行改进,提出可以考虑降雨过程的边坡临界滑动场数值模拟方法,能够方便、快速地计算出边坡局部、整体安全系数和相对应的临界滑动面在降雨过程中的变化历程。将该法用于一个典型均质边坡和一个非均质边坡在降雨过程中的稳定性计算,分析降雨持续时间、降雨强度和非饱和强度参数取值等因素对边坡稳定性的影响,并将计算结果与其他方法进行比较,结果表明临界滑动场方法能搜索任意形状最危险滑面,计算的安全系数合理。     

Use of fully softened shear strength in slope stability analysis

Fully softened shear strength is an important empirical engineering concept for slope stability analyses of cuts in stiff clays and compacted embankments constructed of high-plasticity clays. This concept has been used to explain many first-time failures for which the back calculated shear strength is below the peak strength measured in the laboratory. A comprehensive review of case histories and laboratory studies related to fully softened shear strength was used to assess the application of this concept. The case history data were also used to provide guidelines on the soil types for which fully softened shear strength is appropriate, how and when this shear strength should be used in slope stability analysis, and how the fully softened failure envelope should be characterized. This paper contains specific guidelines on when and how the fully softened shear strength concept should be used in slope stability analyses.     

Failure mechanism of a slope with a thin soft band triggered by intensive rainfall

Rainfall is considered as one of the paramount factors for slope failures in many regions around the world, particularly in tropical and subtropical regions. To study the effect of rainfall storm and its duration on the stability of slopes with a thin soft band layer, a 2D seepage numerical analysis and experimental investigation were implemented on an unsaturated model, consisting of clayey sand soils with a thin soft layer inclined to the horizontal level by 30° at a slope angle of 50°. It was subjected to intensive rainfall 20 mm/h for 8 h. Positive pore water pressures and horizontal earth pressures were monitored during the rainstorm using sensors distributed inside the experimental model. Both the experimental and numerical simulation results showed that the stability of the slope decreased during the time of the rainfall storm. Infiltration of rainwater resulted in reduction of soil shear strength, due to the loss occurring in soil suction after 1 h of rainstorm; the tension cracks appeared at the top of the slope and a certain displacement was observed in the sliding blocks. During the time of rainstorm, the infiltrated water flowed out from the slope through the weak interlayer near to the toe causing piping and local failure, so the formed cracks at the top of slope grew and expanded due to sliding of the failed soil blocks. Moreover, the ground water table rose and the positive pore water pressures increased, resulting in a reduction of effective stress, which is considered as a main factor in soil shear strength. A surface runoff was also present following the full saturation of the slope, leading to dragging the fine particles with water flow causing erosion. The combination of piping and erosion effects led to a quick local failure at the toe, as well as sliding of the failed blocks and spreading of the cracks.     

Development of a probabilistic approach for rock wedge failure

For rock slope engineering, uncertainty and variability are inherent in data collected on orientation and strength of discontinuities, yielding a range of results. Unfortunately, conventional deterministic analysis based on the factor of safety concept, requires a fixed representative value for each parameter without regard to the degree of uncertainty involved. Therefore, the deterministic analysis fails to properly represent uncertainty and variability, so common in engineering geology studies. To overcome this shortcoming, the probabilistic analysis method was proposed and used for more than a decade in rock slope stability analysis. However, most probabilistic analyses included a deterministic model as part of the analysis procedure causing subsequent problems, which went uncorrected. The objectives of this paper are to develop a solution for these difficulties in probabilistic analyses and to propose an appropriate simulation procedure for the probabilistic analysis of rock wedge failures. As part of the solution, probability of kinematic instability and probability of kinetic instability are evaluated separately to provide a proper, combined evaluation for failure probability. To evaluate the feasibility of this new probabilistic approach, the procedure is applied to a practical example, a major, highway rock cut in North Carolina, USA. Results of the probabilistic approach are compared to those of the deterministic analysis; findings are significantly different, indicating that the deterministic analysis does not depict rock slope variations, particularly where significant scatter in parameter data occurs.     

Offshore pile system model biases and reliability

ABSTRACT

Recent hurricanes between 2004 and 2008 in the Gulf of Mexico provide valuable new information about design model biases and uncertainties because multiple offshore platforms were loaded beyond the predicted capacity of their pile systems and because there was a failure of a pile system. A Bayesian calibration of model bias factors based on predicted versus observed performance of pile systems in hurricanes indicates that the conventional American Petroleum Institute design method for pile capacity is slightly conservative by about 10% for base shear (i.e. lateral) failures of pile systems in clay, unbiased for overturning (i.e. axial) failures of pile systems in clay, and conservative by more than 50% for overturning failures of piles systems in sand. The epistemic uncertainty in the updated bias factors is represented by coefficient of variation values of about 0.25 for base shear and overturning failures of pile systems in clay and 0.35 for overturning failures of pile systems in sand. A reliability assessment with the calibrated model bias factors shows that the current design practice produces lower reliability for a pile system with three piles versus one with eight piles and lower reliability for a pile system failing in overturning versus one failing in base shear. Therefore, the current design practice could potentially be improved by taking into account the mode of failure and the redundancy in the pile system to provide for a more uniform level of reliability.     

The assessment of slope stability along NH-22 in Rampur-Jhakri Area,Himachal Pradesh

The present paper demonstrates the assessment of slope stability analysis between Rampur to Jhakri road section along National Highway (NH-22), Himachal Pradesh, India. The different types of slope failures have affected most part of slopes which causes considerable loss of life and property, inconveniences such as disruption of traffic along highways. The poorly designed rock slopes for road widening or construction purposes may weaken the stability of the slopes. A detail field investigation has been carried out to collect the representative rock samples for determination of physico-mechanical properties of rock and joint data for kinematic analysis. The rocks exposed in the area are highly jointed quartzite and quartz-mica schist of Rampur-Larji Group of Palaeoproterozoic age. The continuous slope mass rating (CSMR) technique has been applied for the assessment of slope stability analysis at five vulnerable locations and the results shows slopes are partially stable to unstable. Kinematic analysis mainly shows wedge type of failure along with few toppling and planar failures. The existing slope required immediate treatment to prevent the failure for its long term stability.     

交变载荷作用下边坡的安定性分析

边坡稳定的极限分析方法只适用于比例加载的情况。当其上所受到的全部或部分载荷发生往复变化时,应该采用安定分析来评价边坡的安全性。通常边坡除了受到恒定的重力作用以外,地下水的作用也是一个不能忽视的因素。而由于降雨等原因,地下水位往往会在一定范围内往复变化,使得在稳定的地下水位以上的部分岩土体经常处于干湿循环的状态。根据率形式的Koiter机动安定定理,提出了考虑地下水位往复变化情况的边坡安定上限分析方法。利用抗剪强度参数折减定义的安全系数,定量地计算载荷变化对边坡稳定性的影响。最后通过一个直立边坡的简单算例证明了提出的分析方法的有效性。     

Seismically induced landslide displacements: a predictive model

Newmark's model for predicting earthquake-induced landslide displacements provides a simple way to predict the coseismic displacements affecting a sliding mass subject to earthquake loading. In this model, seismic slope stability is measured in terms of critical acceleration, which depends on the mechanical soil properties, pore-pressure distribution, and slope geometry. The triggering seismic forces are investigated in terms of energy radiation from the source, propagation, and site effects, based on 190 accelerometric recordings from 17 Italian earthquakes with magnitudes between 4.5 and 6.8. The method is based on the calibration of relations having the general form of an attenuation law that relates the energy of the seismic forces to the dynamic shear resistances of the sliding mass to propagate the expected landslide displacements as an inverse function of the distance from the fault rupture; the amount of displacement computed through these relations provides a criterion to predict the occurrence of slope failures. Finally, maps showing, in a deterministic and a probabilistic way, the potential of seismically induced landslide displacements are displayed as a tool to provide seismic landslide scenarios and earthquake-induced landslide hazard maps, respectively.     

Pre-conditioning factors and susceptibility assessments of Wenchuan earthquake landslide at the Zhouqu segment of Bailongjiang basin, China

In this study, we present a landslide susceptibility assessment carried out after the devastating 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. For the Zhouqu segment in the Bailongjiang basin in north-western China landslide susceptibility was computed by a logistic regression method. This region has been experiencing landslides for a long time, and numerous additional slope failures were triggered by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. The data used for this study consists of slope failures attributed to the 2008 earthquake, the 878 post Wenchuan earthquake landslides and collapses inventory build up by combination the field investigation, monoscopic manual interpretation, image classification and texture analysis using SPOT 5 and ALOS remote-sensing image data. All data derived from remote sensing images are validated during field investigations. The landslide pre-disposing factor database was constructed. A digital elevation model (DEM) with a 30 × 30 m resolution, orthophotos, geological and land-use maps and information on peak ground acceleration data from the 2008 earthquake is used. The statistical analysis of the relation between Wencuan earthquake-triggered landslides and pre-disposing factors show the great influence of lithological and topographical conditions for earthquake-triggered slope failures. The quality of susceptibility mapping was validated by splitting the study area into a training and validation set. The prediction capability analysis showed that the landslide susceptibility map could be used for land planning as well as emergency planning by local authorities in this region.     

Structurally controlled landslides in saprolitic soils in Hong Kong

A number of large slope failures which have occurred in Hong Kong have highlighted the important influence that discontinuities in saprolitic soils can have on slope stability. Conventional stability analyses normally adopted for such soils, which assume failure through intact materials of uniform shear strength, are not appropriate if discontinuity-controlled failures can be postulated. Stress history and present-day weathering effects should also be taken into consideration in the assessment of the long-term stability of slopes in weathered rocks in tropical and subtropical regions. © Rapid Science Ltd. 1998     

基于地质模型快速构建的边坡三维稳定性分析

目前边坡稳定性分析多以二维剖面为主,随着各种数值分析软件的应用,边坡的三维稳定性分析技术越来越成熟,但是对于三维边坡的地质模型快速构建的方法不多,且建模精度难以得到保证。本文借助Geobim软件建立工程区的三维地质模型,提出借助surfer、Ansys等软件快速建立flac3d能够识别的类型文件的方法,此方法能够大大简化建模过程,提高建模精度。根据工程区的主要工程地质问题,对工程区的三维地质模型进行概化,结合相关实例对其进行三维地质建模,并借助flac3d软件计算不同工况下边坡的稳定性情况。根据计算结果可知,在暴雨工况下,边坡的稳定性降低,填方工况下,边坡的侧向位移变大,但是其稳定性相对较好,边坡的主要破坏模式为沿着填筑体及边坡的浅表层全、强风化层发生剪切破坏。     

Discontinuity controlled probabilistic slope failure risk maps of the Altindag (settlement) region in Turkey

The evaluation of potential rock slope problems using stereographic projection techniques known as kinematic analysis is one of the most important parts of a slope stability investigation to be carried out in jointed rock media. In conventional stereoprojection techniques for the assessment of possible rock slope failures, the peak orientations of joints together with the slope geometry and the friction angle of the weakness planes are used. Other possible joint orientations which may be encountered in the rock media are ignored, although they belong to the group of joint peak orientations. In this study, nearly vertical jointed andesites cropped out at the Altindag settlement region in Ankara were studied in order to evaluate the relevance of this ignored discontinuity orientation data on slope stability. As a result, probabilistic risk maps for planar, toppling and wedge failures were produced using the kinematic rules and digital elevation model of the study area. The comparison of the distribution of the actual failures in the area and the probabilistic risk maps prepared for the study area revealed that all of the identified failures are found to be located in the higher risk zones on the probabilistic risk maps.     

The effect of pressure-grouted soil nails on the stability of weathered soil slopes

Pressure-grouted soil nails have been increasingly used for stabilizing slopes. The pullout resistance of a soil nail is the main factor for reinforcing the slope stability. In this study, a two-dimensional axisymmetric finite element model is developed to simulate the pullout behavior of a pressure-grouted soil nail. This model is verified with field pullout tests result of a pressure-grouted soil nails by comparing with gravity-grouted soil nails. Based on the analysis, a three-dimensional finite element model is proposed for stability analysis of a slope reinforced with pressure-grouted soil nails using the shear strength reduction method. A series of numerical slope stability analyses for a slope composed of weathered soil are performed to investigate the effects of grouting pressure on the slope stability and the behavior of the soil nails. Special attention is given to the installation effect of a pressure-grouted soil nails. It is found from the result of this study that the pressure-grouted soil nails increase the safety factor by fifty percent in a slope by increasing the stiffness of the nailed slope system. Numerical analysis results confirm the fact that the pullout resistance of a soil nail is the main factor for stabilizing slopes rather than the shear resistance of the soil nail.     

Debris slope stability analysis using three-dimensional finite element method based on maximum shear stress theory

How to evaluate debris slope stability reasonably is yet an urgent problem. The paper presents an applied method evaluating debris slope stability, using three-dimensional (3D) finite element contact algorithm based on the maximum shear stress theory. The Guanjia debris slope is located between K9 + 940 and K10 + 200 of Longli First-class Highway in Zhejiang, China. On its left slope, some cracks appeared at the end of 2002 and these were immediately backfilled, overlying a plastic membrane. However, many new cracks appeared on the slope during the rainfall in April 2003. Meanwhile, some small collapses and springs occurred in the front of the slope, and many cracks appeared on the middle part. The stability of the Guanjia debris slope was analyzed using the method proposed in the paper, the strength reduction finite element method, the imbalance thrust force method, Fellenius method, Janbu simplified method, Spencer’s method, Morgenstern–Price method and generalized limit equilibrium (GLE) method. The results show that: (1) the safety factors of the debris slope obtained using the imbalance thrust force method is the minimum in all limit equilibrium methods; (2) 1.07 and 1.06 are the safety factors of Section CC′ and DD′ (the middle part of this slope) of the Guanjia debris slope obtained using the method proposed (FEM with shear strength reduction technique based on the maximum shear stress theory) in this study, respectively, which reflect the slope actual condition in critical failure status; (3) the method proposed in this study may take into account the spatial effect of the debris slope, which makes the results of slope stability analysis more reasonable and reliable than other methods that can be used as a reference for the evaluation of stability of the same type of debris slope; and (3) further study should be done to confirm whether the proposed method in this study is suitable for other types of slopes.     

Influence of heterogeneity on the reliability and failure of a long 3D slope

The influence of heterogeneity of undrained shear strength on the performance of a long slope cut in clay is investigated. Random field theory is used to model the heterogeneity and finite elements are used to compute the slope response. These have been used within a Monte Carlo simulation to compute reliability as a function of global factor of safety. It is shown that three failure modes are possible, depending on the ratio of the horizontal scale of fluctuation to the slope size, as characterised by its height and length. For very small values of this ratio, the slope fails along its entire length and the result is similar to a conventional 2D analysis based on the mean strength. For intermediate values, discrete failures are likely and reliability is a function of slope length. For large values of the ratio, the variability takes on a layered appearance and the result is equivalent to a 2D stochastic analysis. The validity of the boundary conditions is examined by analysing slopes of different length. It is shown that simple probability theory may be linked with stochastic analysis and finite elements to give efficient solutions for some large 3D problems.