Regionalization of heavy rainfall to improve climatic design values for infrastructure: case study in Southern Ontario,Canada

Abstract

Southern Ontario, Canada, has been impacted in recent years by many heavy rainfall and flooding events that have exceeded existing historical estimates of infrastructure design rainfall intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) values. These recent events and the limited number of short-duration recording raingauges have prompted the need to research the climatology of heavy rainfall events within the study area, review the existing design IDF methodologies, and evaluate alternative approaches to traditional point-based heavy rainfall IDF curves, such as regional IDF design values. The use of additional data and the regional frequency analysis methodology were explored for the study area, with the objective of validating identified clusters or homogeneous regions of extreme rainfall amounts through Ward's method. As the results illustrate, nine homogeneous regions were identified in Southern Ontario using the annual maximum series (AMS) for daily and 24-h rainfall data from climate and rate-of-rainfall or tipping bucket raingauge (TBRG) stations, respectively. In most cases, the generalized extreme value and logistic distributions were identified as the statistical distributions that provide the best fit for the 24-h and sub-daily rainfall data in the study area. A connection was observed between extreme rainfall variability, temporal scale of heavy rainfall events and location of each homogeneous region. Moreover, the analysis indicated that scaling factors cannot be used reliably to estimate sub-daily and sub-hourly values from 24- and 1-h data in Southern Ontario.

Citation Paixao, E., Auld, H., Mirza, M.M.Q., Klaassen, J. & Shephard, M.W. (2011) Regionalization of heavy rainfall to improve climatic design values for infrastructure: case study in Southern Ontario, Canada. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(7), 1067–1089.     

Non-stationary frequency analysis of heavy rainfall events in southern France

Abstract

Heavy rainfall events often occur in southern French Mediterranean regions during the autumn, leading to catastrophic flood events. A non-stationary peaks-over-threshold (POT) model with climatic covariates for these heavy rainfall events is developed herein. A regional sample of events exceeding the threshold of 100 mm/d is built using daily precipitation data recorded at 44 stations over the period 1958–2008. The POT model combines a Poisson distribution for the occurrence and a generalized Pareto distribution for the magnitude of the heavy rainfall events. The selected covariates are the seasonal occurrence of southern circulation patterns for the Poisson distribution parameter, and monthly air temperature for the generalized Pareto distribution scale parameter. According to the deviance test, the non-stationary model provides a better fit to the data than a classical stationary model. Such a model incorporating climatic covariates instead of time allows one to re-evaluate the risk of extreme precipitation on a monthly and seasonal basis, and can also be used with climate model outputs to produce future scenarios. Existing scenarios of the future changes projected for the covariates included in the model are tested to evaluate the possible future changes on extreme precipitation quantiles in the study area.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor K. Hamed

Citation Tramblay, Y., Neppel, L., Carreau, J., and Najib, K., 2013. Non-stationary frequency analysis of heavy rainfall events in southern France. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (2), 280–294.     

Estimates of changes in design rainfall values for Canada

Annual maximum rainfall data from 51 stations in Canada were analyzed for trends and changes by using the Mann–Kendall trend test and a bootstrap resampling approach, respectively. Rainfall data were analyzed for nine durations ranging from 5 min to 24 h. The data analyzed are typically used in the development of intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) curves, which are used for estimating design rainfall values that form an input for the design of critical water infrastructure. The results reveal more increasing than decreasing trends and changes in the data with more increasing changes and larger changes, noted for the longer rainfall durations. The results also indicate that a traditional trend test may not be sufficient when the interest is in identifying changes in design rainfall quantiles. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Rapid assessment of field erosion and sediment transport pathways in cultivated catchments after heavy rainfall events

This paper explores a scale‐adapted erosion mapping method which aims at a rapid assessment of field erosion and sediment transport pathways in catchments up to several square kilometres and compares the results with the output of a well‐known erosion model (LISEM). The mapping method is based on an event‐defined classification scheme of erosion intensity (zero, weak, moderate and strong) that is applied to arable fields, in combination with incision measurements of erosion features for each erosion intensity class on a small sample of fields. Sediment deposition is classified on the basis of quantity indicators and abundance. In addition, relevant conditions and erosion factors are determined for each field. The method was applied to an agricultural catchment (4·2 km²) in the Sundgau (Alsace), after a short but violent thunderstorm in May 2001, to illustrate its potential use and its limitations. The rainfall event led to strong erosion on the arable fields and a muddy flow that caused significant damage in the built‐up area. On the basis of the analyses of the incision measurements in combination with the mapping of erosion intensity classes, total erosion for the catchment was estimated as 15 000 t (an average of about 36 t[sol ]ha). Sediment deposition was found to occur in three major locations: (1) in thalwegs at the interface between maize and downslope winter wheat fields, (2) in downslope headlands where the flow direction suddenly changed due to oriented tillage structures in the perpendicular direction, and (3) the lowest corners of fields which collect all the runoff from the field. Preliminary data analyses suggest that erosion intensity is related to field size and[sol ]or tillage direction and to slope morphology. Model output (LISEM) appeared to depend more strongly on slope gradient than the results obtained with the mapping method. The method yields a database, which can be used as a foundation for conservation strategies in small regions with similar land use and geomorphology. The mapping and modelling methods are compared, and their complementary aspects are highlighted. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Cloud tracking using satellite data for predicting the probability of heavy rainfall events in the Mediterranean area

The use of cloud tracking techniques and storm identification procedures is proposed in this paper with the aim of predicting the evolution of cloud entities associated with the highest rainfall probability within a given meteorological scenario. Suitable algorithms for this kind of analysis are based on the processing of digital images in the thermal infrared (IR) band from geostationary satellites: a selection of such algorithms is described in some detail together with a few real case applications. Three heavy rainfall events have been selected for this purpose with reference to the extreme meteorological situation observed during Fall 1992 and 1993 over the Mediterranean area. A window from 30 to 60 °N and from 20 °W to 30 °E has been identified for the analysis of data from the radiometer on board the ESA Meteosat platform. In conclusion, the suitability of cloud tracking techniques for predicting the probability of heavy rainfall events is discussed provided that the former are associated with proper modeling of small scale rainfall distribution.     

The isotope hydrology of the Muskoka River Watershed,Ontario, Canada

Stable isotope tracers of δ¹⁸O and δ²H are increasingly being applied in the study of water cycling in regional-scale watersheds in which human activities, like river regulation, are important influences. In 2015, δ¹⁸O and δ²H were integrated into a water quality survey in the Muskoka River Watershed with the aim to provide new regional-scale characterization of isotope hydrology in the 5,100-km² watershed located on the Canadian Shield in central Ontario, Canada. The forest dominated region includes ~78,000 ha of lakes, 42 water control structures, and 11 generating stations, categorized as “run of river.” Within the watershed, stable isotope tracers have long been integrated into hydrologic process studies of both headwater catchments and lakes. Here, monthly surveys of δ¹⁸O and δ²H in river flow were conducted in the watershed between April 2015 and November 2016 (173 surface water samples from 10 river stations). Temporal patterns of stable isotopes in river water reflect seasonal influences of snowmelt and summer-time evaporative fractionation. Spatial patterns, including differences observed during extreme flood levels experienced in the spring of 2016, reflect variation in source contributions to river flow (e.g., snowmelt or groundwater versus evaporatively enriched lake storage), suggesting more local influences (e.g., glacial outwash deposits). Evidence of combined influences of source mixing and evaporative fractionation could, in future, support application of tracer-enabled hydrological modelling, estimation of mean transit times and, as such, contribute to studies of water quality and water resources in the region.     

A Study of Long-Term MTBE Attenuation in the Borden Aquifer, Ontario, Canada

In 1988 and 1989, a natural gradient tracer test was performed in the shallow, aerobic and aquifer at Canadian Forces Base (CFB) Borden. A mixture of ground water containing dissolved oxygenated gasoline was injected below the water table along with chloride (Cl-) as a conservative tracer. The migration of BTEX, MTBE, and Cl was monitored in detail for 16 moths. The mass of BTEX compounds in the plume diminished significantly with time due to intrinsic aerobic biodegradation, while MTBE showed only a small decrease in mass over the 16-month period. In 1995/96, a comprehensive ground water sampling program was undertaken to define the mass of MTBE still present in the aquifer. Since the plume had migrated into an unmonitored section of the Borden Aquifer, numerical modeling and geostatistical methods were applied to define an optimal sampling grid and to improve the level of confidence in the results. A drive point profiling system was used to obtain ground water samples. Numerical modeling with no consideration of degradation pedicted maximum concentrations in excess of 3000 μg/L; field sampling found maximum concentrations of less than 200 μg/L. A mass balance for the remaining MTBE mass in the aquifer eight years after injection showed that only 3% of the original mass remained. Sorption, volatilization, a biotic degradation, and plant uptake are not considered significant attenuation processes for the field conditions. Therefore, we suggest that biodegradation may have played a major role in the attenuation of MTBE within the Borden Aquifer.     

Quantifying groundwater discharge to a small perennial stream in southern Ontario, Canada

A study of the interaction between groundwater and surface water was undertaken within a small agricultural watershed in southern Ontario, Canada. Groundwater contributions to streamflow were measured along a section of stream during baseflow conditions and during rainfall events. Four techniques were used to estimate the contribution of groundwater to the stream along a 450 m reach (three during baseflow and one during stormflow conditions). Under baseflow conditions, streamflow measurements using the velocity–area technique indicated that the net groundwater flux to the stream during the summer months was 10 ml s⁻¹ m⁻¹. Hydrometric measurements (i.e. hydraulic gradient and hydraulic conductivity) taken using mini-piezometers installed in the sediments beneath the stream resulted in net groundwater flux estimates that were four to five times lower. Seepage meters failed to provide any measurements of water flux into or out of the stream. Therefore, based on these results, the velocity–area technique gives the best estimate of groundwater discharge. Hydrograph separations were conducted using isotopic ratios and electrical conductivity on two large rainfall events with different antecedent moisture conditions in the catchment. Both events showed that pre-event water (generally considered groundwater) dominated streamflow and tile drain flow with 64%–80% of the total discharge contributed by pre-event water. High water table conditions within the catchment resulted in greater stream discharge and a greater contribution of event water in the streamflow than that observed under low water table conditions for similar intensity storm events. The results also showed that differences in riparian zone width, vegetation and surface saturation conditions between the upper and lower catchment can influence the relative magnitude of streamflow response from the two catchment areas.     

Turkey Lakes Watershed,Ontario, Canada: 40 years of interdisciplinary whole-ecosystem research

The Turkey Lakes Watershed (TLW) study is a federal, interdepartmental study established in 1979 to investigate the effects of acid rain on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. The 10.5 km² watershed, located in the Eastern Temperate Mixed Forest on the Canadian Shield, has been the site of multidisciplinary studies on biogeochemical and ecological processes conducted across plot to catchment scales. The whole-ecosystem investigative approach was adopted from the outset and has allowed research to evolve from its original (and continuing) acidification focus to include investigations on the effects of climate change, forest harvesting and other forest ecosystem perturbations. The extensive scientific and support infrastructure allows for collection of a comprehensive data record essential for understanding long-term environmental trends. Data include atmospheric deposition, meteorology, stream hydrology and chemistry, soil, pore and ground water properties, understory and overstory vegetation, lake and outflow physical and chemical properties, and aquatic macroinvertebrate and fish community composition and abundance. These data have contributed to over 400 published research papers and graduate theses. The watershed has also figured prominently in many continent-wide comparisons advancing fundamental watershed theory. The knowledge gained at TLW has influenced pollutant emission and natural resource management policies provincially, nationally and internationally.     

Stratification response of soil water content during rainfall events under different rainfall patterns

Many researchers have studied the influence of rainfall patterns on soil water movement processes using rainfall simulation experiments. However, less attention has been paid to the influence under natural condition. In this paper, rainfall, soil water content (SWC), and soil temperature at 10‐, 20‐, 30‐, 40‐, and 50‐cm depths were simultaneously monitored at 1‐min intervals to measure the variation in SWC (SWCv) in response to rainfall under different rainfall patterns. First, we classified rainfall events into four patterns. During the study period, the main pattern was the advanced rainfall pattern (38% of all rainfall events), whereas the delayed, central, and uniform rainfall patterns had similar frequencies of about 20%. During natural rainfall, rainwater rapidly passed through the top soil layers (10–40 cm) and was accumulated in the bottom layer (50 cm). When a high rainfall pulse occurred, the water storage balance was disturbed, resulting in the drainage of initial soil water from the top layers into the deeper layers. Therefore, the critical function of the top layers and the bottom layers was infiltration and storage, respectively. The source of water stored in the bottom layer was not only rainfall but also the initial soil water in the upper soil layers. Changes in soil temperature at each soil depth were comonitored with SWCv to determine the movement characteristics of soil water under different rainfall patterns. Under the delayed rainfall pattern, preferential flows preferred to occur. Under the other rainfall patterns, matrix flow was the main form of soil water movement. Rainfall amount was a better indicator than rainfall intensity for SWCv in the bottom layer under the delayed rainfall pattern. These results provide insights into the responses of SWCv under different rainfall patterns in northern China.     

Analysis of mining-induced microseismic events at Strathcona Mine,Subdury, Canada

Rockbursts and mining-induced seismic events have serious socio-economic consequences for the Canadian mining industry, as their mines are extended to greater depths. Automatic multichannel monitoring systems (Electro-Lab MP250s) are routinely, used to detect the arrival times of seismic waves radiated by mining-induced events and sensed on an array of single component transducers installed throughout a mine. These arrival times are then used to locate the events and produce maps of areas of high activity for use in mine planning and design. This approach has limitations in that, it does not allow a detailed analysis of source mechanisms, which could be extracted if whole waveform signals are recorded and analyzed.A major research project, sponsored by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) with the collaboration of the Canadian mining industry, is aimed at enhancing existing mine seismic monitoring technology in Canada, in order to carry out more advanced processing of data to obtain fundamental scientific information on mining-induced seismic events This paper describes preliminary results from seismic monitoring experiments carried out in a hard rock nickel mine in Sudbury, Canada. Existing seismic monitoring instrumentation was enhanced with a low cost microcomputer-based whole waveform seismic acquisition system. Some of the signals recorded during this experiment indicate anisotropic wave propagation through the mine rock masses, as observed by the splitting of shear waves and the relative arrival of two shear waves polarized in directions which may be related to the structural fabric and/or state of stress in the rock mass. Analysis of compressional wave first motion shows the predominance of shear events, as indicated by focal mechanism studies and is confirmed by spectral analysis of the waveforms. The source parameters were estimated fro typical low magnitude localized microseismic events during the initial monitoring experiments. The seismic moment of these events varied between 10⁶ N.m and 2.10⁸ N.m. with a circular source radius of between 1 m and 2 m with an estimated stress drop of the order of 1 MPa.     

Rare earth element abundances in a thick,layered komatiite lava flow from Ontario,Canada

Rare earth element abundances have been measured in pyroxenitic (19.6% MgO) to gabbroic (7.7% MgO) rocks from the upper part of a thick, layered komatiite lava flow (Fred's Flow) in Munro Township, Ontario. This flow apparently erupted as a highly basic liquid which subsequently differentiated into layers of ultramafic cumulate rocks and a basaltic residual liquid. The analyzed rocks have compositions and spinifex or equigranular textures interpreted to indicate that they represent the complete range of liquids that were present during the differentiation of the lava.All the analyzed rocks are depleted in light REE, and also exhibit a slight depletion of Yb and Er relative to Gd and Dy. Chondrite-normalized Ce and Yb abundances range from 3.2 to 7.8 and 5.1 to 9.7 respectively. Proportions of fractionating minerals were estimated using a major element petrological mixing program and petrographic data. REE modeling based on these results indicates that the dominant process relating the samples is low-pressure fractional crystallization of olivine, followed at lower temperatures by clinopyroxene and plagioclase. Except for Eu, correspondence between observed and calculated REE abundances obviates any need to appeal to processes of major REE redistribution during diagenesis and low-grade metamorphism. Major differences in REE patterns of other ultramafic and mafic komatiitic lava flows [6,11], therefore, probably reflect different episodes of partial melting and/or differences in mantle source composition. The consistency of the REE in the layered flow, however, supports the concept that mafic komatiites can also be derived from ultrabasic parental magmas by low-pressure fractional crystallization. The light-REE-depleted patterns of these komatiites resemble those of modern MORB, suggesting that the mantle source of the komatiites had undergone a previous melting episode.     

Response mechanism of post-earthquake slopes under heavy rainfall

This paper uses the catastrophic landslide that occurred in Zhongxing Town, Dujiangyan City, as an example to study the formation mechanism of landslides induced by heavy rainfall in the post-Wenchuan earthquake area. The deformation characteristics of a slope under seismic loading were investigated via a shaking table test. The results show that a large number of cracks formed in the slope due to the tensile and shear forces of the vibrations, and most of the cracks had angles of approximately 45° with respect to the horizontal. A series of flume tests were performed to show how the duration and intensity of rainfall influence the responses of the shaken and non-shaken slopes. Wetting fronts were recorded under different rainfall intensities, and the depth of rainfall infiltration was greater in the shaken slope than in the non-shaken slope because the former experienced a greater extreme rainfall intensity under the same early rainfall and rainfall duration conditions. At the beginning of the rainfall infiltration experiment, the pore water pressure in the slope was negative, and settling occurred at the top of the slope. With increasing rainfall, the pore water pressure changed from negative to positive, and cracks were observed on the back surface of the slope and the shear outlet of the landslide on the front of the slope. The shaken slope was more susceptible to crack formation than the non-shaken slope under the same rainfall conditions. A comparison of the responses of the shaken and non-shaken slopes under heavy rainfall revealed that cracks formed by earthquakes provided channels for infiltration. Soil particles in the cracks of slopes were washed away, and the pore water pressure increased rapidly, especially the transient pore water pressure in the slope caused by short-term concentrated rainfall which decreased rock strength and slope stability.     

Hydrological analysis of extreme rainfall events and severe rainstorms over Uttarakhand,India

ABSTRACT

Following the June 2013 disaster in the Uttarakhand Himalayas, many discussions are ongoing with regard to how climate change is seeking revenge on mankind by endowing us with disasters! The event was mostly linked with the occurrence of an extreme event due to climate change. In view of this, an attempt has been made in this paper to analyse the extreme rainfall events experienced by the Uttarakhand during 1901–2013 using more than 100 stations’ daily rainfall data. The study revealed that during the 113-year period, the highest numbers of extreme events were recorded during the decade 1961–1970, and to some extent in the decade 1981–1990. Thereafter, there is a decrease in extreme rainfall events. The comparative study of extreme events prior to 1901 showed that on 17–18 September 1880, a rainstorm which occurred in close vicinity to Uttarakhand caused serious floods and damage to lives and properties. The extreme rainfall recorded by some stations during this unprecedented rainstorm has not been surpassed to date.     

Identification of changes in floods and flood regimes in Canada using a peaks over threshold approach

Recent flood events in Canada have led to speculation that changes in flood behaviour are occurring; these changes have often been attributed to climate change. This paper examines flood data for a collection of 132 gauging stations in Canada. All of these watersheds are part of the Canadian Reference Hydrometric Basin Network (RHBN), a group of gauging stations specifically assembled to assist in the identification of the impacts of climate change. The RHBN stations are considered to have good quality data and were screened to avoid the influences of regulation, diversions, or land use change. Daily flow data for each watershed are used to derive a peaks over threshold (POT) dataset. Several measures of flood behaviour are examined based on the POT data, which afford a more in‐depth analysis of flood behaviour than can be obtained using annual maxima data. Analysis is conducted for four time periods ranging from 50 to 80 years in duration; the latter period results in a much smaller number of watersheds that have data for the period. The changes in flood responses of the watersheds are summarized by grouping the watersheds by size (small, medium, and large) and also by hydrologic regime (nival, mixed, and pluvial). The results provide important insights into the nature of the changes that are occurring in flood regimes of Canadian rivers, which include more flood exceedances, reduced maximum flood exceedance magnitudes for snowmelt events, and earlier flood events. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Surface microrelief changes affect the soil and water conservation benefits of rainwater harvesting tillage operation during rainfall events

Reservoir tillage (RT) improves the soil rainwater harvesting capacity and reduces soil erosion on cropland, but there is some debate regarding its effectiveness. The objective of this study was to further verify the effect of RT on soil erosion and explore the reasons for this effect by analysing microrelief changes during rainfall. Rainfall intensities of 60, 90, and 120 mm/hr and three slope degrees (5, 15, and 25°, representing gentle, medium, and steep slopes) were considered. A smooth surface (SS) served as the control. The microrelief changes were determined based on digital elevation models, which were measured using a laser scanner with a 2‐cm grid before and after rainfall events. The results showed that compared with the values for the SS, RT reduced both the runoff and sediment by approximately 10‐20% on the gentle slope; on the medium slope, although RT also reduced the runoff in the 90‐ and 120‐mm/hr intensity rainfall events, the sediment increased by 158.90% and 246.08%; on the steep slope, the sediment increased by 92.33 to 296.47%. Overall, when the runoff control benefit of RT was lower than 5%, there was no sediment control benefit. RT was effective at controlling soil loss on the gentle slopes but was not effective on the medium and steep slopes. This is because the surface depressions created by RT were filled in with sediment that eroded from the upslopes, and the surface microrelief became smoother, which then caused greater soil and water loss than that on an SS at the later rainfall stage.     

Antecedent soil moisture conditions of different soil types in South‐western Ontario,Canada

Soil moisture conditions prior to input design storms need to be known in the planning and design of urban stormwater control facilities using the design storm approach. Limited information is available on these soil moisture conditions which are commonly referred to as the antecedent soil moisture conditions. In this study, a deterministic continuous simulation model was used to simulate antecedent soil moisture conditions under south‐western Ontario, Canada, climate conditions. A wide range of different soil types were investigated and various statistical analyses on the simulated antecedent soil moisture results were performed. Frequency analyses illustrated typical distributions of antecedent soil moisture conditions and the influence of finer and coarser textured soil particles. Empirical equations were developed for the estimation of average antecedent soil moisture conditions based on commonly known soil characteristics. Satisfactory performance of the empirical equations was demonstrated by comparing between field average antecedent soil moisture data and empirically estimated average antecedent soil moisture values. These equations are therefore recommended for use in urban stormwater studies incorporating the design storm approach. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Transport of three herbicides in ground water at Twin Lake test site,Chalk River,Ontario, Canada

A field tracer test performed under natural flow conditions at the Twin Lake test site, Chalk River Laboratories of the Atomic Energy of Canada Ltd. in Chalk River, Ontario, Canada, using tritium and three herbicides (Chlortoluron, Terbuthylazine, and Pendimethalin) was interpreted using the dispersion equation with a combined reaction model. The reaction model couples an instantaneous equilibrium reaction governed by a linear adsorption isotherm with a reversible or irreversible kinetic reaction of the first order, and decay. An improved interpretation method consists of a simultaneous fitting of theoretical concentration and mass-recovery curves to the experimental data, which leads to a more reliable determining of reaction models and improves the accuracy of fitting. Tritium served as the reference tracer to determine the flow velocity, dispersivity, and the recovery of the herbicides. Chlortoluron was slightly delayed by equilibrium exchange with strongly reduced concentration due to an irreversible kinetic reaction and/or decay. Terbuthilazine was slightly delayed by equilibrium exchange, with strongly reduced concentration due to a reversible kinetic reaction with some influence of decay. A strong equilibrium reaction and a strong reversible kinetic reaction without degradation governed the transport of Pendimethalin, reducing considerably its concentration. The results obtained show that simulations based only on Kd and decay constant, especially if these parameters are found in the laboratory, may considerably differ from those performed with reaction parameters determined in properly performed field tests. The dominant reaction types, and the values of parameters found in the study, supply useful information on the transport of the investigated herbicides in sandy aquifers under natural flow conditions.