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1.
Investigating effect of climate change on drought propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought using multi-model ensemble projections 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Jehanzaib Muhammad Sattar Muhammad Nouman Lee Joo-Heon Kim Tae-Woong 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2020,34(1):7-21
Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment - Climate change is a main driving force that affects the hydrological cycle, leading to an increase in natural hazards. Among these natural... 相似文献
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Forecasting of waves under extreme conditions such as tropical cyclones is vitally important for many offshore industries, but there remain many challenges. For Northwest Western Australia (NW WA), wave forecasts issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology have previously been limited to products from deterministic operational wave models forced by deterministic atmospheric models. The wave models are run over global (resolution 1/4°) and regional (resolution 1/10°) domains with forecast ranges of +?7 and +?3 day respectively. Because of this relatively coarse resolution (both in the wave models and in the forcing fields), the accuracy of these products is limited under tropical cyclone conditions. Given this limited accuracy, a new ensemble-based wave forecasting system for the NW WA region has been developed. To achieve this, a new dedicated 8-km resolution grid was nested in the global wave model. Over this grid, the wave model is forced with winds from a bias-corrected European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast atmospheric ensemble that comprises 51 ensemble members to take into account the uncertainties in location, intensity and structure of a tropical cyclone system. A unique technique is used to select restart files for each wave ensemble member. The system is designed to operate in real time during the cyclone season providing +?10-day forecasts. This paper will describe the wave forecast components of this system and present the verification metrics and skill for specific events. 相似文献
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Improving event-based rainfall-runoff simulation using an ensemble artificial neural network based hybrid data-driven model 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:1
Guangyuan Kan Cheng Yao Qiaoling Li Zhijia Li Zhongbo Yu Zhiyu Liu Liuqian Ding Xiaoyan He Ke Liang 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2015,29(5):1345-1370
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利用非线性误差增长理论,以Lorenz系统为例比较研究了初始误差和参数误差对混沌系统可预报性的影响.结果表明:在初始误差和参数误差单独存在时,系统的可预报期限随误差大小的变化规律基本上相同;对于相同的误差大小,初始误差和参数误差对系统可预报期限的影响几乎相同,这一结果基本上不随参数范围的变化而变化.当初始误差和参数误差同时存在时,两者对可预报期限影响所起的作用大小主要取决于初始误差和参数误差的相对大小.当初始误差远大于参数误差时,Lorenz系统的可预报期限主要由初始误差决定,可以不用考虑参数误差对预报模式可预报性的影响;反之,当参数误差远大于初始误差时,Lorenz系统的可预报期限主要由参数误差决定;当初始误差和参数误差大小相当时,两者都对系统的可预报期限起重要作用.在后两种情况下,在考虑初始误差对可预报性影响的同时还必须考虑参数误差的作用.这提醒我们在作实际数值天气预报的时候,不仅要重视初值的确定,也要重视数值模式控制参数的确定. 相似文献
5.
Aline de Araújo Nunes Fernando Falco Pruski 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2015,29(1):183-191
Reliable methods of determining reservoir capacities are becoming more and more necessary to improve the planning and management of water resources. Due to its easy use and solid technical and scientific basis, the Reservoir Operation Study has been widely utilized by engineers. However, this method is limited by its strong dependence on the available database. This study was undertaken to propose potential modifications to the Reservoir Operation Study to overcome its problems, namely the strong dependence upon the first year of the time series and inability of associating the reservoir storage capacity with a frequency (return period). To make the reservoir capacity independent from the first year of the time series, we created (N ? 1) synthetic series of streamflows (N = the number of years in the time series) and applied the Reservoir Operation Study method to each one. To associate the reservoir capacity with a frequency factor (return period), we applied a Gumbel distribution to the reservoir capacity estimated from each one of the synthetic series. For β-values (proportion of the average streamflow to be regulated) greater than or equal to 0.75, the proposed method efficiently overcame the aforementioned limitation regarding the method’s dependence on the database. The association of storage capacities with return periods greater than the length of the time series, which is presented in this work, also considerably improves the Reservoir Operation Study method. 相似文献
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An ensemble-based approach is developed to conduct optimal path planning in unsteady ocean currents under uncertainty. We focus our attention on two-dimensional steady and unsteady uncertain flows, and adopt a sampling methodology that is well suited to operational forecasts, where an ensemble of deterministic predictions is used to model and quantify uncertainty. In an operational setting, much about dynamics, topography, and forcing of the ocean environment is uncertain. To address this uncertainty, the flow field is parametrized using a finite number of independent canonical random variables with known densities, and the ensemble is generated by sampling these variables. For each of the resulting realizations of the uncertain current field, we predict the path that minimizes the travel time by solving a boundary value problem (BVP), based on the Pontryagin maximum principle. A family of backward-in-time trajectories starting at the end position is used to generate suitable initial values for the BVP solver. This allows us to examine and analyze the performance of the sampling strategy and to develop insight into extensions dealing with general circulation ocean models. In particular, the ensemble method enables us to perform a statistical analysis of travel times and consequently develop a path planning approach that accounts for these statistics. The proposed methodology is tested for a number of scenarios. We first validate our algorithms by reproducing simple canonical solutions, and then demonstrate our approach in more complex flow fields, including idealized, steady and unsteady double-gyre flows. 相似文献
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Pieter R. van Oel Eduardo S. P. R. Martins Alexandre C. Costa Niko Wanders Henny A. J. van Lanen 《水文科学杂志》2020,65(Z1):979-990
ABSTRACTTo effectively manage hydrological drought, there is an urgent need to better understand and evaluate its human drivers. Using the “downstreamness” concept, we assess the role of a reservoir network in the emergence and evolution of droughts in a river basin in Brazil. In our case study, the downstreamness concept shows the effect of a network of reservoirs on the spatial distribution of stored surface water volumes over time. We demonstrate that, as a consequence of meteorological drought and recovery, the distribution of stored volumes became spatially skewed towards upstream locations, which affected the duration and magnitude of hydrological drought both upstream (where drought was alleviated) and downstream (where drought was aggravated). The downstreamness concept thus appears to be a useful entry point for spatiotemporally explicit assessments of hydrological drought and for determining the likelihood of progression from meteorological drought to a human-modified hydrological drought in a basin. 相似文献
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Pieter R. van Oel Eduardo S. P. R. Martins Alexandre C. Costa Niko Wanders Henny A. J. van Lanen 《水文科学杂志》2018,63(7):979-990
To effectively manage hydrological drought, there is an urgent need to better understand and evaluate its human drivers. Using the “downstreamness” concept, we assess the role of a reservoir network in the emergence and evolution of droughts in a river basin in Brazil. In our case study, the downstreamness concept shows the effect of a network of reservoirs on the spatial distribution of stored surface water volumes over time. We demonstrate that, as a consequence of meteorological drought and recovery, the distribution of stored volumes became spatially skewed towards upstream locations, which affected the duration and magnitude of hydrological drought both upstream (where drought was alleviated) and downstream (where drought was aggravated). The downstreamness concept thus appears to be a useful entry point for spatiotemporally explicit assessments of hydrological drought and for determining the likelihood of progression from meteorological drought to a human-modified hydrological drought in a basin. 相似文献
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Initial ensemble generation and validation for ocean data assimilation using HYCOM in the Pacific 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
A method to initialize an ensemble, introduced by Evensen (Physica, D 77:108–129, 1994a; J Geophys Res 99(C5):10143–10162, 1994b; Ocean Dynamics 53:343–367, 2003), was applied to the Ocean General Circulation Model (OGCM) HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) for the Pacific Ocean.
Taking advantage of the hybrid coordinates, an initial ensemble is created by first perturbing the layer interfaces and then
running the model for a spin-up period of 1 month forced by randomly perturbed atmospheric forcing fields. In addition to
the perturbations of layer interfaces, we implemented perturbations of the mixed layer temperatures. In this paper, we investigate
the quality of the initial ensemble generated by this scheme and the influence of the horizontal decorrelation scale and vertical
correlation on the statistics of the resulting ensemble. We performed six ensemble generation experiments with different combinations
of horizontal decorrelation scales and with/without perturbations in the mixed layer. The resulting six sets of initial ensembles
are then analyzed in terms of sustainability of the ensemble spread and realism of the correlation patterns. The ensemble
spreads are validated against the difference between model and observations after 20 years of free run. The correlation patterns
of six sets of ensemble are compared to each other. This study shows that the ensemble generation scheme can effectively generate
an initial ensemble whose spread is consistent with the observed errors. The correlation pattern of the ensemble also exhibits
realistic features. The addition of mixed layer perturbations improves both the spread and correlation. Some limitations of
the ensemble generation scheme are also discussed. We found that the vertical shift of isopycnal coordinates provokes unrealistically
large deviations in shallow layers near the islands of the West Pacific. A simple correction circumvents the problem.
相似文献
Liying WanEmail: |
14.
This study presents a high-resolution and multi-temporal drought climatology for Mauritius based on calculated standardized precipitation index (SPI) using mean monthly rainfall for the period 1953–2007. A monthly mean SPI varying from +3.4 to ?2.7 indicates the occurrence of extremely wet and dry conditions, and collocated SPI indicates more frequent mild drought conditions. Spatial maps of rainfall trends and SPI show mostly neutral to severely dry conditions, but sparse regions of extremely wet and dry conditions are also observed. An increase in the frequency of dry years after the 1990s is noted, while most of the extreme wet conditions are found to have occurred between 1972 and 1988. More frequent short-duration wet events are observed on the 3- and 6-month time scales compared to dry events. On the 12- and 24-month time scales the frequency of both dry and wet periods is almost the same, with the dry events lasting longer. 相似文献
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Ocean satellite data assimilation experiments in FIO-ESM using ensemble adjustment Kalman filter 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Using Ensemble Adjustment Kalman Filter (EAKF), two types of ocean satellite datasets were assimilated into the First Institute of Oceanography Earth System Model (FIO-ESM), v1.0. One control experiment without data assimilation and four assimilation experiments were conducted. All the experiments were ensemble runs for 1-year period and each ensemble started from different initial conditions. One assimilation experiment was designed to assimilate sea level anomaly (SLA); another, to assimilate sea surface temperature (SST); and the other two assimilation experiments were designed to assimilate both SLA and SST but in different orders. To examine the effects of data assimilation, all the results were compared with an objective analysis dataset of EN3. Different from the ocean model without coupling, the momentum and heat fluxes were calculated via air-sea coupling in FIO-ESM, which makes the relations among variables closer to the reality. The outputs after the assimilation of satellite data were improved on the whole, especially at depth shallower than 1000 m. The effects due to the assimilation of different kinds of satellite datasets were somewhat different. The improvement due to SST assimilation was greater near the surface, while the improvement due to SLA assimilation was relatively great in the subsurface. The results after the assimilation of both SLA and SST were much better than those only assimilated one kind of dataset, but the difference due to the assimilation order of the two kinds of datasets was not significant. 相似文献
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A new method for predicting different kinds of multiples and peg-leg reflections in unstacked seismic data is discussed. The basis for this method is the fact that kinematic properties of multiples can be represented as a combination of kinematic properties of primary reflections. The prediction is made using a two-step process. In the first step, the values for the angle of emergence and radius of curvature of the wavefront for primary reflections from ‘multiple-generating’ interfaces are obtained. These parameters are estimated directly from unstacked data for every source point using the homeomorphic-imaging technique. The second step consists of prediction of multiples from primary reflections that satisfy a so-called ‘multiple condition’. This condition is the equality of the absolute values of the angles of emergence calculated from the first step. This method is effective even in complex media and information on the subsurface geology is not required. The parameters are estimated directly from the unstacked data and do not require any computational efforts such as in wavefield extrapolation of data. 相似文献
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Regional frequency analysis based on L-moments was applied to assess the spatial extent of meteorological droughts in tandem with their return periods in Zambia. Weather station monthly rainfall data were screened to form homogeneous sub-regions-, validated by a homogeneity criterion and fitted by a generalized extreme value distribution using goodness-of-fit test statistics. Predictor equations at regional scale for L-moment ratios and mean annual precipitation were developed to generate spatial maps of meteorological drought recurrences. The 80% of normal rainfall level and two thresholds of 60% and 70% were synonymous with moderate and severe droughts, respectively. Droughts were more severe in the south than in the north of Zambia. The return periods for severe and moderate droughts showed an overlapping pattern in their occurrence at many locations, indicating that in certain years droughts can affect the entire country. The extreme south of Zambia is the most prone to drought. 相似文献
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D. R. Kendall J. A. Dracup 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1992,6(1):55-68
This research study focused on the hypothesis that extreme drought and high streamflow events come from different independent populations with different probability distributions which need to be studied separately, rather than considering the streamflow population as a whole. The inability of traditional streamflow generator models to consistently reproduce the frequency of occurrence of severe droughts observed in the historical record has been questioned by many researchers. Our study focused on the development of astochastic event generator model which would be capable of doing so. This was accomplished in a two-step process by first generating the drought event, and then deriving the streamflows which comprised that event. The model considered for this analysis was an alternating renewal-reward procedure that cycles between eventon andoff times, and is representative of drought or high streamflow event duration. The reward gained while the event ison oroff represents drought severity or high streamflow surplus. Geometric and gamma distributions were considered for drought duration and deficit respectively. Model validation was performed using calculated required capacities from the sequent peak algorithm. 相似文献
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ABSTRACTA semi-distributed hydrological model is developed, calibrated and validated against unregulated river discharge from the Tocantins-Araguaia River Basin, northern Brazil. Climate change impacts are simulated using projections from the 41 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate models for the period 2071–2100 under the RCP4.5 scenario. Scenario results are compared to a 1971–2000 base line. Most climate models suggest declines in mean annual discharge although some predict increases. A large proportion suggest that the dry season experiences large declines in discharge, especially during the transition to the rising water period. Most models (>75%) suggest declines in annual minimum flows. This may have major implications for both current and planned hydropower schemes. There is greater uncertainty in projected changes in wet season and annual maximum discharges. Two techniques are investigated to reduce uncertainty in projections, but neither is able to provide more confidence in the simulated changes in discharge.
Editor D. Koutsoyiannis Associate editor F. Hattermann 相似文献
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To estimate atmospheric predictability for multivariable system, based on information theory in nonlinear error growth dynamics, a quantitative method is introduced in this paper using multivariable joint predictability limit (MJPL) and corresponding single variable predictability limit (SVPL). The predictability limit, obtained from the evolutions of nonlinear error entropy and climatological state entropy, is not only used to measure the predictability of dynamical system with the constant climatological state entropy, but also appropriate to the case of climatological state entropy changed with time. With the help of daily NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data, by using a method of local dynamical analog, the nonlinear error entropy, climatological state entropy, and predictability limit are obtained, and the SVPLs and MJPL of the winter 500-hPa temperature field, zonal wind field and meridional wind field are also investigated. The results show that atmospheric predictability is well associated with the analytical variable. For single variable predictability, there exists a big difference for the three variables, with the higher predictability found for the temperature field and zonal wind field and the lower predictability for the meridional wind field. As seen from their spatial distributions, the SVPLs of the three variables appear to have a property of zonal distribution, especially for the meridional wind field, which has three zonal belts with low predictability and four zonal belts with high predictability. For multivariable joint predictability, the MJPL of multivariable system with the three variables is not a simple mean or linear combination of its SVPLs. It presents an obvious regional difference characteristic. Different regions have different results. In some regions, the MJPL is among its SVPLs. However, in other regions, the MJPL is less than its all SVPLs. 相似文献