Ice thawing,mountains falling—are alpine rock slope failures increasing?

Many high‐mountain environments of the world have seen dramatic changes in the past years and decades. Glaciers are retreating and downwasting, often at a dramatically fast pace, leaving large amounts of potentially unstable debris, moraines and rock slopes behind. Although in the main invisible to the eye of an observer, permafrost, i.e. rock and debris with permanent zero or subzero temperatures, is thawing. Several slopes have become unstable and landslides potentially related to permafrost degradation have received wide‐ranging attention from both scientists and the media. A number of those landslides can be related to the effects of recent changes in the cryosphere, which are ultimately driven by changes in climatic parameters, in particular temperature and precipitation.     

Submarine landslide tsunamis: how extreme and how likely?

A number of examples are presented to substantiate that submarine landslides have occurred along most continental margins and along several volcano flanks. Their properties of importance for tsunami generation (i.e. physical dimensions, acceleration, maximum velocity, mass discharge, and travel distance) can all gain extreme values compared to their subaerial counterparts. Hence, landslide tsunamis may also be extreme and have regional impact. Landslide tsunami characteristics are discussed explaining how they may exceed tsunamis induced by megathrust earthquakes, hence representing a significant risk even though they occur more infrequently. In fact, submarine landslides may cause potentially extreme tsunami run-up heights, which may have consequences for the design of critical infrastructure often based on unjustifiably long return periods. Giant submarine landslides are rare and related to climate changes or glacial cycles, indicating that giant submarine landslide tsunami hazard is in most regions negligible compared to earthquake tsunami hazard. Large-scale debris flows surrounding active volcanoes or submarine landslides in river deltas may be more frequent. Giant volcano flank collapses at the Canary and Hawaii Islands developed in the early stages of the history of the volcanoes, and the tsunamigenic potential of these collapses is disputed. Estimations of recurrence intervals, hazard, and uncertainties with today’s methods are discussed. It is concluded that insufficient sampling and changing conditions for landslide release are major obstacles in transporting a Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) approach from earthquake to landslide tsunamis and that the more robust Scenario-Based Tsunami Hazard Assessment (SBTHA) approach will still be most efficient to use. Finally, the needs for data acquisition and analyses, laboratory experiments, and more sophisticated numerical modelling for improved understanding and hazard assessment of landslide tsunamis are elaborated.     

Shear deformation and strength of the interphase between the soil–rock mixture and the benched bedrock slope surface

A series of benched excavations were typically carried out on the bedrock slope surface to improve the stability of the soil–rock mixture (S–RM) fill slope. It is difficult to devise an in situ, large-scale direct shear test for the interphase between the S–RM fill and the benched bedrock slope surface. This study introduced a comprehensive approach to investigate the shear deformation and strength of the interphase. First the soil–rock distribution characteristics were analyzed by test pitting, image analysis, and sieve test. Then the PFC2D random structure models with different rock block size distributions were built, and large-scale numerical shear tests for the interphase were performed after calibrating model parameters through laboratory tests. The stress evolution, damage evolution and failure, deformation localization (based on a principle proposed in this paper), rotation of rock blocks, and shear strength were systematically investigated. It was found that as the rock block proportion and rock block size (rock block proportion of 50 %) increase, the fluctuations of the post-peak shear stress–displacement curves of the interphase become more obvious, and the shear band/localized failure path network becomes wider. Generally, smaller rock blocks are of greater rotation angles in the shear band. The peak shear stress and internal friction angle of the interphase increase, while the cohesion decreases with growth of the rock block proportion. However, all these three parameters increase as the rock block size (rock block proportion of 50 %) increases.     

The Oeschinensee rock avalanche,Bernese Alps,Switzerland: a co-seismic failure 2300 years ago?

Landslide deposits dam Lake Oeschinen (Oeschinensee), located above Kandersteg, Switzerland. However, past confusion differentiating deposits of multiple landslide events has confounded efforts to quantify the volume, age, and failure dynamics of the Oeschinensee rock avalanche. Here we combine field and remote mapping, topographic reconstruction, cosmogenic surface exposure dating, and numerical runout modeling to quantify salient parameters of the event. Differences in boulder lithology and deposit morphology reveal that the landslide body damming Oeschinensee consists of debris from both an older rock avalanche, possibly Kandertal, as well as the Oeschinensee rock avalanche. We distinguish a source volume for the Oeschinensee event of 37 Mm³, resulting in an estimated deposit volume of 46 Mm³, smaller than previous estimates that included portions of the Kandertal mass. Runout modeling revealed peak and average rock avalanche velocities of 65 and 45 m/s, respectively, and support a single-event failure scenario. ³⁶Cl surface exposure dating of deposited boulders indicates a mean age for the rock avalanche of 2.3 ± 0.2 kyr. This age coincides with the timing of a paleo-seismic event identified from lacustrine sediments in Swiss lakes, suggesting an earthquake trigger. Our results help clarify the hazard and geomorphic effects of rare, large rock avalanches in alpine settings.     

How big,how bad,how often: are extreme events accounted for in modern seismic hazard analyses?

The occurrence of several recent “extreme” earthquakes with their significant loss of life and the apparent failure to have been prepared for such disasters has raised the question of whether such events are accounted for in modern seismic hazard analyses. In light of the great 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake, were the questions of “how big, how bad, and how often” addressed in probabilistic seismic hazard analyses (PSHA) in Japan, one of the most earthquake-prone but most earthquake-prepared countries in the world? The guidance on how to properly perform PSHAs exists but may not be followed for a whole range of reasons, not all technical. One of the major emphases of these guidelines is that it must be recognized that there are significant uncertainties in our knowledge of earthquake processes and these uncertainties need to be fully incorporated into PSHAs. If such uncertainties are properly accounted for in PSHA, extreme events can be accounted for more often than not. This is not to say that no surprises will occur. That is the nature of trying to characterize a natural process such as earthquake generation whose properties also have random (aleatory) uncertainties. It must be stressed that no PSHA is ever final because new information and data need to be continuously monitored and addressed, often requiring an updated PSHA.     

Micro-sequential contour blasting—how does it influence the surrounding rock mass?

The optimal delay time between the contour holes in rock blasting has been studied by theoretical and empirical research in Sweden, regarding ground vibrations, increase in crack frequency, radial crack length and finally overbreak (half cast factor). The model test presented in this paper concerns controlled contour blasting in tunnelling and the full-scale blasts concern tunnelling, road cutting, and dimensional stone quarrying. The results indicate that the microsequential contour blasting technique (contour holes fired in sequence and with a delay in the order of 1–2 ms) is superior to simultaneous initiation both regarding blast-induced ground vibrations and crack frequency increase in the rock mass. Both these evaluation methods reflects the conditions deeper in the remaining rock mass. Simultaneous initiation, however, is superior to micro-sequential contour blasting both regarding the half cast factor and the length of radial cracks emanating from the blastholes. These two parameters are more related to the surface conditions after blasting. The industrial applications of this new knowledge are the use of micro-sequential contour blasting when ground vibrations are of greater concern than the contour, for example, in trench blasting or quarrying in urban areas, and the use of simultaneous initiation when an even rock surface is of high priority.     

The slope aspect: A predisposing factor for landsliding?

The influence of slope aspect on the distribution of landslides was studied in the Milia and Roglio basins in Tuscany, Italy. For each basin, the new Tuscany region landslide inventory that was initiated in 2010 was used. The landslides were split into separate datasets based on their prevailing movement typology. To assess the results that were obtained from the different slope aspect values, maps of the lithology, slope angle, distances to streams, and distances to tectonic lineaments were included in the bivariate statistical analysis as comparison terms. For each basin, all of the geo-environmental factor maps were compared with the different landslide typologies with GIS software. Pearson's Chi² (χ²) coefficient was used to test the degree of spatial association between each predictor variable and landslide type. In addition, Cramer's V test was used to quantify the strength of the degree of association. Next, a conditional analysis was applied to all of the possible combinations that occurred between the slope aspect and other landslide-predisposing factors. Overall, the slope aspect significantly affected the distribution of superficial landslide types, but apparently not that of other landslide types.     

Concrete: a man‐made rock?

It has been said that concrete is a ‘man‐made rock’ and although the comparison is not perfect, we support this general statement. It is broadly similar in texture to breccias or conglomerates, has a cementitious matrix, has broadly similar physical properties to some sedimentary and igneous rocks and performs somewhat similarly to masonry during its working life in a building or engineering structure. The investigation and testing of concrete have many similarities to those used for the evaluation of building stone.     

Reversed structures and bounce structures: are they recognizable? Are they real?

This note poses two related questions about structural evolution in rocks. How easy is it to recognize structural features that have reversed their sense of development over time? Are there circumstances in rock deformation where early intensification of structure sows the seeds for a later, more or less inevitable, diminution of intensity? It is suggested, as a partial answer to the first question, that there is an irreversibility principle inherent to most structural development, such that even if bulk strain is reversed, the structural changes that accompanied `forward' structural development will not be completely reversed when the strain is reversed. Where this principle applies, it should always be possible to recognize structural reversals, by sufficiently close observation of the final state. It is suggested, as a partial answer to the second question, that where energy is stored by forward structural changes, this energy can often be expected to drive further structural changes, and these further changes may sometimes cause the original structure to `bounce' back to a less intense state. These questions may have some bearing on developing a firmer basis for kinematic analysis, and for understanding overprinting structures in orogens.     

Promises and actions: are universities the problem in building partnerships?

Urban planners have to develop a planning doctrine (Faludi and Van der Valk 1990). This concept stands for a body of thoughts concerning (a) spatial arrangements within an area, (b) the development of that area; and (c) the way both should be handled. To be successful, they need a planning community (planners, top officials and sub-national establishments for political support) that nurtures it. The planners of the Amsterdam General Extension Plan (1935) developed a doctrine that covers three levels of functions and activities: (1) Amsterdam is a regional centre, a closed functional system, an orthogenetic city. (2) a monocentric urban form and (3) homogeneous neighbourhood communities around a common neighbourhood centre (church, school, medical services, shops). Since the early 1970s Amsterdam has become (1) an international centre, a heterogenetic city, part of a network city system, (2) has developed into a polycentric urban region, and (3) has been acquiring ethnically mixed quarters, divided communities losing their basic function as common neighbourhood centres and even as control areas or domains (Hägerstrand 1970). So in Amsterdam the planning-doctrine was not particularly successful.     

Upstairs-downstairs: supercontinents and large igneous provinces,are they related?

There is a correlation of global large igneous province (LIP) events with zircon age peaks at 2700, 2500, 2100, 1900, 1750, 1100, and 600 and also probably at 3450, 3000, 2000, and 300 Ma. Power spectral analyses of LIP event distributions suggest important periodicities at 250, 150, 100, 50, and 25 million years with weaker periodicities at 70–80, 45, and 18–20 Ma. The 25 million year periodicity is important only in the last 300 million years. Some LIP events are associated with granite-forming (zircon-producing) events and others are not, and LIP events at 1900 and 600 Ma correlate with peaks in craton collision frequency. LIP age peaks are associated with supercontinent rifting or breakup, but not dispersal, at 2450–2400, 2200, 1380, 1280, 800–750, and ≤200 Ma, and with supercontinent assembly at 1750 and 600 Ma. LIP peaks at 2700 and 2500 Ma and the valley between these peaks span the time of Neoarchaean supercraton assemblies. These observations are consistent with plume generation in the deep mantle operating independently of the supercontinent cycle and being controlled by lower-mantle and core-mantle boundary thermochemical dynamics. Two processes whereby plumes can impact continental assembly and breakup are (1) plumes may rise beneath supercontinents and initiate supercontinent breakup, and (2) plume ascent may increase the frequency of craton collisions and the rate of crustal growth by accelerating subduction.     

The future of failure: stress or strain?

Strains in rocks can be observed but ancient stresses can only be inferred. We should re-examine the potential of strain geometry as the key to understanding and interpreting common shear structures ranging from faults to plastic shear zones. The concept of failure along zero extension directions can be applied to natural structures in rocks and is predicated on strain compatibility between differently strained volumes. Zero extension directions are considered for two strain configurations, plane strain (k=1) and uniaxial shortening (k=0). The crucial difference between shear fractures, or faults, and plastic yield zones is that the former are preceded by dilatation while the latter are isovolumetric. Volume changes during deformation affect the orientations of zero extension directions and hence of the resulting structures. With isovolumetric strain, yield occurs on planes at 45° to the principal shortening direction in plane strain and at 54.7° to this axis in uniaxial shortening. Uniaxial shortening experiments on rock samples allow estimation of the relative volumetric strains when yield zones initiate. When this volumetric strain is used to estimate the orientation of shear fractures in plane strain, ca 70° dips are predicted for normal faults at high crustal levels, decreasing downwards to 45°.     

Assessment and mapping of slope stability based on slope units: A case study in Yan’an,China

Precipitation frequently triggers shallow landslides in the Loess Plateau of Shaanxi, China, resulting in loss of life, damage to gas and oil routes, and destruction of transport infrastructure and farmland. To assess the possibility of shallow landslides at different precipitation levels, a method to draw slope units and steepest slope profiles based on ARCtools and a new method for calculating slope stability are proposed. The methods were implemented in a case study conducted in Yan’an, north-west China. High resolution DEM (Digital Elevation Model) images, soil parameters from in-situ laboratory measurements and maximum depths of precipitation infiltration were used as input parameters in the method. Next, DEM and reverse DEM were employed to map 2146 slope units in the study area, based on which the steepest profiles of the slope units were constructed. Combining analysis of the water content of loess, strength of the sliding surface, its response to precipitation and the infinite slope stability equation, a new equation to calculate infinite slope stability is proposed to assess shallow landslide stability. The slope unit stability was calculated using the equation at 10-, 20-, 50- and 100-year return periods of antecedent effective precipitation. The number of slope units experiencing failure increased in response to increasing effective antecedent rainfall. These results were validated based on the occurrence of landslides in recent decades. Finally, the applicability and limitations of the model are discussed.     

Tsunamigenic slope failures: the Pacific Islands ‘blind spot’?

We discuss issues related to a recognised shortcoming in existing tsunami hazard assessments for Pacific Island Countries and Territories (PICTs), that of tsunamigenic slope failures (TSFs). Currently, TSFs are most likely underrepresented as sources in existing tsunami databases for two key reasons. First, relatively low magnitude earthquakes associated with subduction zones are generally assigned as the tsunamigenic source, as opposed to the TSFs they generate. A reassessment of such ‘anomalous tsunamis’ may yield clues that serve to reassign their tsunamigenic source. Second, there are thousands of oceanic islands and seamounts scattered across the Pacific and flank collapse of volcanic edifices such as these is a largely unquantified tsunamigenic threat. However, while it is now possible to model such TSFs, this is unlikely to happen in the near future because of the lack of detailed bathymetry and landslide mass data. Recent developments in the identification of past tsunamis in the Pacific Islands have developed a unique range of indicators that can be used for identifying such events. These are geological, oral tradition and archaeological components that include, but are not limited to, a modified Darwinian model of atoll formation, coastal megaclasts, oral traditions of vanished islands and giant waves, and the abandonment of prehistoric coastal sites. As such, the most logical way forward is to use the multiple indicators available to us to identify evidence of past tsunamis.     

Magnitude and frequency relations: are there geological constraints to the rockfall size?

There exists a transition between rockfalls, large rock mass failures, and rock avalanches. The magnitude and frequency relations (M/F) of the slope failure are increasingly used to assess the hazard level. The management of the rockfall risk requires the knowledge of the frequency of the events but also defining the worst case scenario, which is the one associated to the maximum expected (credible) rockfall event. The analysis of the volume distribution of the historical rockfall events in the slopes of the Solà d’Andorra during the last 50 years shows that they can be fitted to a power law. We argue that the extrapolation of the F-M relations far beyond the historical data is not appropriate in this case. Neither geomorphological evidences of past events nor the size of the potentially unstable rock masses identified in the slope support the occurrence of the large rockfall/rock avalanche volumes predicted by the power law. We have observed that the stability of the slope at the Solà is controlled by the presence of two sets of unfavorably dipping joints (F3, F5) that act as basal sliding planes of the detachable rock masses. The area of the basal sliding planes outcropping at the rockfall scars was measured with a terrestrial laser scanner. The distribution of the areas of the basal planes may be also fitted to a power law that shows a truncation for values bigger than 50 m² and a maximum exposed surface of 200 m². The analysis of the geological structure of the rock mass at the Solà d’Andorra makes us conclude that the size of the failures is controlled by the fracture pattern and that the maximum size of the failure is constrained. Two sets of steeply dipping faults (F1 and F7) interrupt the other joint sets and prevent the formation of continuous failure surfaces (F3 and F5). We conclude that due to the structural control, large slope failures in Andorra are not randomly distributed thus confirming the findings in other mountain ranges.     

Catastrophic rock slope failures and late Quaternary developments in the Nanga Parbat–Haramosh Massif,Upper Indus basin,northern Pakistan

The Nanga Parbat–Haramosh Massif has some of the greatest relief on Earth and highest measured rates of uplift, denudation, and river incision in bedrock. Many studies have sought to understand how its morphology relates to geotectonic evolution and glaciations. However, few catastrophic rock slope failures had been recognised and many of their impacts had been attributed to other processes. Recently more than 150 of these landslides have been found within a 100-km radius of Nanga Parbat (8125 m). New discoveries are reported east, north and west of Nanga Parbat along the Indus streams. Most generated long-run-out rock avalanches that dammed the Indus or its tributaries, some impounding large lakes. They initiated episodes of intermontane sedimentation followed by trenching and removal of sediment. Valley-floor features record a complex interplay of impoundment and sedimentation episodes, superimposition of streams in pre-landslide valley floors, and exhumation of buried features. These findings depart from existing reconstructions of Quaternary events. A number of the rock-avalanche deposits were previously misinterpreted as tills or moraine and their associated lacustrine deposits attributed to glacial lakes. Features up to 1000 m above the Indus, formerly seen as tectonically raised terraces, are depositional features emplaced by landslides, or erosion terraces recording the trenching of valley fill in landslide-interrupted river reaches. Unquestionably, tectonics and glaciation have been important but decisive and misread formative events of the Holocene involve a post-glacial, landslide-fragmented fluvial system. The latter has kept valley developments in a chronic state of disequilibrium with respect to climatic and geotectonic controls. Accepted glacial chronologies are put in doubt, particularly the extent and timing of the last major glaciation. The pace and role processes in the Holocene have been seriously underestimated.     

Comparative study on the “optic-electric” monitoring method for the deformation and failure of surrounding rock in stopes

Natural Hazards - The evolution law for the mining-induced deformation and failure of surrounding rock is an important parameter for coal mine work safety. Accurate detection is a scientific matter...