攀西地区发震构造特征与潜在震源区划分

本文在搜集了目前攀西地区的发震构造特征和历史地震研究资料基础上，分析总结了攀西地区的大震和强震发生的地质、地震和地球物理场条件。根据地震的发生条件，以及近几年来对潜在震源区划分的新方法和新认识，对攀西地区的潜在震源区作了划分，并将结果与中国地震烈度区划图（１９９０）中的相应方案作了对比分析。     

太原－临汾地区地震构造反潜在震源区划分

在搜集了目前太原－临汾地区的地震构造特征和地震活动资料基础上，分析总结了该地区的大震和强震发生的地质构造、地震和地球物理场等条件。根据地震的发生条件，以及近几年来对潜在震源区划分的一些新认识，对太原－临汾地区的潜在震源区作了重新划分，并将结果与《中国地震烈度区划图（１９９０）》中的相应方案作了对比分析。     

基于简化地震模型定量化确定潜在震源区边界

基于简化地震模型,根据发震断层的倾角、地震震源深度这两个参数,提出一种简便的定量化确定在震源区边界的方法,并在本方法的应用进行了具体说明,该方法物理意义明确,各简单直观,便于掌握应用。     

论发震构造特性在潜在震源区参数确定中的应用

发震构造特性是潜在震源区划分及其地震年发生率确定的重要依据。潜在震源区除了反映“未来具有发生破坏性地震的地区”的内涵外,还应反映高震级档地震具有相似复发特征的涵义。由于在地震活动性参数统计单元内,有一些具有不同本底地震的活动构造块体,为更好地反映地震活动的空间不均匀性,考虑潜在震源区的三级划分是有必要的。通过分析潜在震源区内高震级档地震的复发特征,计算预测时段内潜在震源区的高震级档地震的发震概率,采用预测时段内概率等效转换获得地震年平均发生率的方法,有助于在中国地震危险性分析框架内考虑潜在震源区的强震复发特性。另外,文中还对潜在震源区内特征地震次级震级档频度不足的特性和发震构造上强震非均匀性在地震危险性分析中的应用问题进行了探讨     

太原—临汾地区地震构造及潜在震源区划分

在搜集了目前太原－临汾地区的地震构造特征和地震活动资料基础，分析了总结了该地区的大震和强震发生的地震质构造，地震和地球物理等条件。根据地震的发生条件，以及近几年来对潜在震源区划分的一些新认识，对太原－临汾地区的潜在震源区作了重新划分，并将结果与《中国地震烈度区图（１９９０）》中的相应方案作了对比分析。     

人工神经元网络方法对首都圈地区潜在震源区的划分

指标选取是人工神经元网络方法应用中最基础，最重要的五环，是判别工作成败的关键。但目前尚没有比较成熟的指标选取或指标显著性评价方法。因此，指标问题入往成了方法效果进一步提高的“瓶颈”问题。该问题在潜在震源区划分应用中也同样存在。     

划分潜在震源区的地震地质规则研究

根据近年来发震构造地质条件研究的进展，本文探讨了划分潜在震源区主要的地震地质规则，具体包括潜在震源区的识别；。它的位置，长度，宽度和震级上限的确定等内容。规则的归纳充分考虑了活动构造性质的差异和资料完备程度的不同。     

孤立中强地震的潜在震源区划分

提出了孤立中强地震的潜在震源区划分其参数确定的思路和方法，即在综合考虑孤立中强地震所在地震区的总体地震构造特征与地震活动水平的基础上，利用历史地震等震线，余震分布，区域应力场及震源机制等资料，确定其潜在震源区的参数。     

华北新构造分区与潜在震源划分问题

归纳了华北地区的新构造特征,划分了4个基本新构造类型和16个次级类型.给出了在新构造类型划分基础上进行新构造分区的5条原则和华北新构造分区的两级划分方案,共划分11个一级区和37个二级区.从潜在震源的新构造背景、分区边界、分区步骤等方面讨论了潜在震源与新构造区的关系.提出了在新构造区的基础上直接划分潜在震源的可行性与合理性.     

应用人工神经网络实现潜在震源区的定量划分

本文提出了应用人工神经网络原理, 确定反映潜在震源区特征的地震构造和地震活动因素、定量划分潜在震源区的方法。对华北地区的实际资料计算表明, 该方法充分反映了潜在震源区与其控制特征之间的规律。原理简明, 便于应用, 计算结果合理, 分区细致, 资料具实用性。     

四川盆地深部地壳结构——深地震反射剖面探测

四川盆地位于扬子地块的西北部,被褶皱构造带所围绕,受周缘构造带的侧向挤压作用,盆地卷入了多期次和多边界的构造变形,为开展盆山耦合作用及多边界、多期次构造叠加与复合关系的研究提供了不可多得的理想野外实验室.为揭示四川盆地地壳结构,本文通过对3条不同时间采集的深地震反射剖面数据进行拼接联线处理,获得跨越四川盆地的330 km深地震反射偏移成果剖面,揭示了四川盆地地壳上地幔细结构：沉积层从西北向东南逐渐变薄,在龙门山前沉积层厚度超过15 km,在华蓥山下沉积层减薄到~8 km,且褶皱变形形成华蓥山薄皮褶皱冲断带;莫霍面出现在13~15 s（双程走时）,埋深约40~45 km;并发现从下地壳延伸至地幔的东南向的倾斜反射,从13 s向下延伸至18 s,结合四川盆地及其周边地区其他地球物理和地球化学花岗岩同位素年龄等资料,我们认为这些倾斜反射层是扬子克拉通地台西北缘发生的新元古代俯冲的遗迹.

     

克希霍夫叠前深度偏移在川东地区的应用

常规叠前深度偏移方法都是将数据延拓到最终面,然后从固定面偏移.在川东复杂山区,地形起伏大,地表切割剧烈,表层结构复杂,地腹构造褶皱剧烈,逆冲断层发育,地震波传播纵横向变化大,如果把数据校正到固定面来偏移,势必带来很大误差,严重影响射线追踪的准确性.另外由于该地区勘探程度较低,钻井资料很少,失去了建立偏移速度场的重要约束条件.为此针对该地区,本文提出了一种利用时间域资料约束的多模式速度-深度模型建立及分析技术,并应用基于浮动地表的Kirchhoff叠前深度偏移技术对川东某工区实际地震资料进行了处理.在该工区的应用表明,这两种技术很好解决了起伏地表的问题,对复杂地质体有较强的适应性,并且在有限钻井资料情况下,也能快速高效建立精确偏移速度场.最终偏移后的结果跟叠后时间偏移处理的结果相比归位精度得到显著提高,断层断点更为清楚,而且过井深度偏移剖面与钻井深度对比吻合也比较好,在井深度对比中各层误差均小于50 m,各层深度误差小于1%,为后续的地质研究提供了很好的资料.     

中强地震前山东地下流体地震前兆模糊分维特征研究

采用模糊集理论与分形理论相结合的模糊分维方法，计算山东地下流体在１９８３年菏泽５．９级地震和１９９５年苍山５．２级地震前的变化。分析结果认为，模糊分维值反映了地震前兆时序观测资料的结构变化特征，具有一定的物理意义，为从复杂的地下流体前兆观测值中提取地震异常信息提供了新的方法，但对某些台、测项而言、必须具体分析其模糊分维变化特征及其震前异常变化特征。     

Frozen subduction in the Yangtze block: insights from the deep seismic profiling and gravity anomaly in east Sichuan fold belt

The Sichuan basin is the main part of the middle-upper Yangtze block, which has been experienced a long-term tectonic evolution since Archean. The Yangtze block was regarded as a stable block until the collision with the Cathaysia block in late Neoproterozoic. A new deep seismic reflection profile conducted in the eastern Sichuan fold belt (ESFB) discovered a serials of south-dipping reflectors shown from lower crust to the mantle imply a frozen subduction zone within the Yangtze block. In order to prove the speculation, we also obtain the middle-lower crustal gravity anomalies by removing the gravity anomalies induced by the sedimentary rocks and the mantle beneath the Moho, which shows the mid-lower crustal structure of the Sichuan basin can be divided into eastern and western parts. Combined with the geochronology and Aeromagnetic anomalies, we speculated the Yangtze block was amalgamated by the West Sichuan and East Sichuan blocks separated by the Huayin-Chongqing line. The frozen subduction zone subsequently shifted to a shear zone accommodated the lower crustal shortening when the decollement at the base of the Nanhua system functioned in the upper plate.     

Delineation of potential seismic sources for seismic zoning of Iran

A total of 235 potential seismic sources in Iran and neighboring regions are delineated based on available geological, geophysical, tectonic and earthquake data for seismic hazard assessment of the country. In practice, two key assumptions are considered; first, the assumption of earthquake repeatedness, implying that major earthquakes occur preferentially near the sites of previous earthquakes; second, the assumption of tectonic analogy, which implies that structures of analogous tectonic setting are capable of generating same size earthquakes. A two-step procedure is applied for delineation of seismic sources: first, demarcation of seismotectonic provinces; second, determination of potential seismic sources. Preferentially, potential seismic sources are modeled as area sources, in which the configuration of each source zone is controlled, mainly, by the extent of active faults, the mechanism of earthquake faultings and the seismogenic part of the crust.     

StudyofCurieisothermalsurfaceinSichuanBasinandtheseismicareaonitswesternmar┐gin

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Current seismic quiescence in Greece: Implications for seismic hazard

Based on previous observations of the phenomenon of precursory seismic quiescence before crustal main shocks and recent results that indicate an increase in the occurrence of main shocks in the next years, we focus this study on the detection of the seismic quiescence situation in Greece in the beginning of 1999. We use the declustered seismicity catalogue of the Institute of Geodynamics, National Observatory of Athens (NOA) from 1968–1998, to investigate the significance of seismic quiescence for the region 19^°–29^°E and 34^°–42^°N. We searched for seismicity rate changes at every node of the grid by a moving time window and we present the results for the beginning of 1999. The results map four (4) areas having a quiescence which duration ranges from 3.8 to6 years in the beginning of 1999. Three of these areas have been devestated by catastrophic earthquakes 17–21 years ago and significant quiescence also preceded those main shocks. Based on these results, an estimate of the future seismic hazard of these areas is made.     

Parameter sensitivity analyses in seismic hazard

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Application of the time-predictable model in Peninsular India for future seismic hazard assessment

It has been the belief among Earth scientists that the Peninsular Shield is aseismic, as the region attained stability long ago. However, the earthquake at Koyna (10 December 1967), Bhadrachalam (13 April 1969), Broach (23 March 1970), Hyderabad (30 June 1983), Khillari (30 September 1993), Jabalpur (22 May 1997), Gujarat (26 January 2001), and additional ones of smaller magnitudes, altered this concept. This area has experienced many widely distributed shallow earthquakes, some of them having large magnitudes. It is now widely accepted that seismic activity still continues with moderate events. Therefore, a need has arisen to take into consideration recent seismological data to assess the future seismic status of Peninsular India. Earthquake generation model has been studied to develop the statistical relations with surface wave magnitude (M _S ≥ 4.5). Five seismogenic sources showing clustering of earthquakes and including at least three main shocks of magnitude 4.5 ≤ M _S ≤ 6.5 giving two repeat times, have been identified. It is mainly based on the so-called “regional time-predictable model”. For the considered region it is observed that the time interval between two consecutive main shocks depends on the preceding main shock magnitude (M _p ) not on the following main shocks magnitude M _f suggesting the validity of time predictable model in the region.     

Seismic hazard analysis for engineering sites based on the stochastic finite-fault method

Seismic hazard analyses are mainly performed using either deterministic or probabilistic methods. However, there are still some defects in these statistical model-based approaches for regional seismic risk assessment affected by the near-field of large earthquakes. Therefore, we established a deterministic seismic hazard analysis method that can characterize the entire process of ground motion propagation based on stochastic finite-fault simulation, and we chose the site of the Xiluodu dam to demonstrate the method. This method can characterize earthquake source properties more realistically than other methods and consider factors such as the path and site attenuation of seismic waves. It also has high computational efficiency and is convenient for engineering applications. We first analyzed the complexity of seismogenic structures in the Xiluodu dam site area, and then an evaluation system for ground motion parameters that considers various uncertainties is constructed based on a stochastic finite-fault simulation. Finally, we assessed the seismic hazard of the dam site area comprehensively. The proposed method was able to take into account the complexity of the seismogenic structures affecting the dam site and provide multi-level parameter evaluation results corresponding to different risk levels. These results can be used to construct a dam safety assessment system of an earthquake in advance that provides technical support for rapidly and accurately assessing the post-earthquake damage state of a dam, thus determining the influence of an earthquake on dam safety and mitigating the risk of potential secondary disasters.