1736-2010年华南前汛期始日变化

根据清代华南雨雪分寸记载的内容、特点,参照华南地区前汛期降水特征,提出了利用雨雪分寸记载重建华南前汛期开始时间的方法,重建了1736-1911 年福州与广州前汛期开始日期变化序列;并利用福州与广州（分别始于1953 和1952 年）逐日降水观测记录辨识了器测时期两地前汛期的逐年开始时间;据此分析了过去300 年华南前汛期开始日期的年-年代际变化特征。结果表明：1736-2010 年间,福州、广州两地前汛期开始时间平均为5 月第1 候;但存在显著的年际和年代际波动,其中重建时段（1736-1911 年）的主周期为2~3 年、准10 年和准40年,器测时段的主周期为2~3 年、准10 年和准22 年。在年际尺度,重建时段福州和广州前汛期开始时间最早的年份均为4 月第4 候,最晚的年份则分别为5 月第6 候和6 月第1 候;而器测时段两地前汛期开始时间的最早年、最晚年均为4 月第4 候和6 月第1 候。在年代际尺度,重建时段福州和广州相邻年代最大变幅分别为2.2 候和1.6 候;器测时段福州和广州相邻年代最大变幅则分别为2.5 候和2.4 候。     

Variations in the starting date of the pre-summer rainy season in South China, 1736-2010

The starting dates of the pre-summer rainy season during historical times (1736-1911) in Fuzhou and Guangzhou of South China, were determined and reconstructed on the basis of historical documents in the Yu-Xue-Fen-Cun archive, together with observed features of precipitation during the pre-summer rainy season. In addition, starting dates of the pre-summer rainy season from 1953 in Fuzhou and from 1952 in Guangzhou were reconstructed for the instrumental period. These data allowed for analyses of inter-annual and inter-decadal changes in the starting dates of the pre-summer rainy season in South China over the past 300 years. Results show that the mean starting date of the pre-summer rainy season in South China was the first pentad of May; in addition, periodicities in the starting dates of 2-3 years, 10 years, and 40 years were detected during the period 1736-1911, and of 2-3 years, 10 years, and 22 years during the instrumental period. From 1736 to 1911, the earliest starting dates at Fuzhou and Guangzhou both occurred at the fourth pentad of April, while the latest starting dates were at the sixth pentad of May in Fuzhou and the first pentad of June in Guangzhou. During the instrumental period, the earliest and latest starting dates were at the fourth pentad of April and the first pentad of June, respectively, in both Fuzhou during 1953-2010 and Guangzhou during 1952-2010. The maximum difference between neighboring decades during 1736-1911 was 2.2 and 1.6 pentads in Fuzhou and Guangzhou, respectively, and during the instrumental period it was 2.5 and 2.4 pentads in Fuzhou and Guangzhou, respectively.     

Variations in the starting date of the pre-summer rainy season in South China, 1736–2010

The starting dates of the pre-summer rainy season during historical times （1736- 1911） in Fuzhou and Guangzhou of South China, were determined and reconstructed on the basis of historical documents in the Yu-Xue-Fen-Cun archive, together with observed features of precipitation during the pre-summer rainy season. In addition, starting dates of the pre-summer rainy season from 1953 in Fuzhou and from 1952 in Guangzhou were reconstructed for the instrumental period. These data allowed for analyses of inter-annual and inter-decadal changes in the starting dates of the pre-summer rainy season in South China over the past 300 years. Results show that the mean starting date of the pre-summer rainy season in South China was the first pentad of May; in addition, periodicities in the starting dates of 2-3 years, 10 years, and 40 years were detected during the period 1736-1911, and of 2-3 years, 10 years, and 22 years during the instrumental period. From 1736 to 1911, the earliest starting dates at Fuzhou and Guangzhou both occurred at the fourth pentad of April, while the latest starting dates were at the sixth pentad of May in Fuzhou and the first pentad of June in Guangzhou. During the instrumental period, the earliest and latest starting dates were at the fourth pentad of April and the first pentad of June, respectively, in both Fuzhou during 1953-2010 and Guangzhou during 1952-2010. The maximum difference between neighboring decades during 1736-1911 was 2.2 and 1.6 pentads in Fuzhou and Guangzhou, respectively, and during the instrumental period it was 2.5 and 2.4 pentads in Fuzhou and Guangzhou, respectively.     

华南前汛期起讫日期的年际变化及与前汛期降水的关系

根据国家气候中心最新颁布的华南前汛期业务监测标准,采用小波分析、合成分析、相关分析等统计方法研究了1961~2014年华南前汛期入汛日期、出汛日期、持续时间及前汛期累计降水量异常的变异特征。结果表明：华南前汛期入汛日期的年际变化特征主要表现为7~8 a及准2 a周期,年代际变化特征主要表现为20世纪60至70年代入汛偏晚,80年代入汛偏早;华南前汛期出汛日期的年际变化特征主要表现为6~7 a周期,年代际变化特征表现为20世纪60年代中期前出汛偏早,70年代中期以来出汛偏早。华南前汛期入汛早晚对其持续时间及累计降水量有很好的指示意义,表现为入汛越早,华南前汛期持续时间偏长的可能性越大,对应前汛期累计降水量偏多。     

1736年以来西安气候变化与农业收成的相关分析

基于清代雨雪与农业收成等档案记载及现代气象观测记录,根据西安冬季降雪与平均气温之间的统计关系、降水入渗与水量平衡模型,分别重建了西安1736~2000年冬季平均气温与4季降水序列,并分析了该地区气候变化特征及其对1736~2000年农业收成的影响。主要结论如下：(1) 西安的冷暖变化存在明显的百年际波动：其中18世纪相对温暖,19世纪寒冷,20世纪又转为温暖,且增暖趋势极为明显。(2) 西安的降水变化存在明显的年代际波动。自1736年以来,共经历了6个多雨期与7个少雨期,其中多雨期的平均雨量比少雨期多16%。(3) 气候变化对农业收成的影响极为明显。其中夏季降水量与秋收关系显著,而夏收又与前一年秋~当年春季的降水明显相关,且大多数严重歉收年均由降水明显偏少而致。虽然温度的年际变化与收成没有显著的联系,但温度年代际变化,即气候的冷暖阶段变化却与收成的阶段性变化关系密切。     

Rainfall Variability in Murang'a District, Kenya: Meteorological Data and Farmers' Perception

This study examines meteorological data and farmers' perception of rainfall in the Central Highlands of Kenya. Rainfall data from five meteorological stations during the period from 1947 to 1996 were analysed on an annual and a monthly basis. Daily data exist from 1957 and analyses from 1957 to 1996 were done on a daily basis. Discussions were held with 60 farmers about rainfall and its variation. Ten of these farmers were interviewed with a questionnaire about rainfall. Analysing annual precipitation and rain periods gave no clear trends over the study period. Results from analysing the growing seasons for maize, the main annual crop, and periods during which maize plants are sensitive to drought showed decreasing trends in rainfall amounts for the study period. Results from the interviews indicate that most of the farmers think rainfall has decreased over the last 40 years. Farmers'perceptions of rainfall are related to periods when the main food and annual crop require water and not to the periods scientists often analyse, i.e. annual and rain periods. More research and better advice from agricultural extension workers to farmers are necessary to enable this area to sustain itself in sufficient food production if the decreasing trends during the growing seasons and drought-sensitive periods continue.     

青海高原近40 a降水变化特征及其对生态环境的影响

 利用青海省1961-2002年26个代表站逐日雨量资料和高原东部地区10个站的降水自记资料,分析了近40 a来降水量、雨日、雨强的气候变化特征。结果表明:青海高原近40 a来年降水量无明显的变化,但夏半年降水量呈减少趋势,冬半年降水量呈明显的增多趋势；夏半年降水量和雨日虽在减少,但降水强度在增大；夏半年降水量的减少主要是降水日数的减少造成的,而冬半年降水量的增加是由于雨日增多和每个降水日平均雨量的增大所造成；随着气候变暖,夏、秋季降水明显偏少,出现暖干化的气候趋势。     

泥石流源地土体应力应变特性对降雨响应过程的分析——以蒋家沟泥石流为例

根据对蒋家沟泥石流源地的崩塌、滑坡、散流坡,在旱季与雨季不同时段,降雨入渗后的土壤含水状况观测,以及泉水季节性变化,详细分析了泥石流源地崩塌、滑坡、散流坡土体的应力应变特性对降雨的响应过程差异.在雨季滑坡临空面和滑坡体内的土体含水量分别为6.67%、4.8%,滑坡活动主要是通过前缘剪出口崩塌方式补给下方沟床.崩塌体由于土体结构极为松散,在雨季该土体含水量通常高达8.85%～16%,使其土体的抗剪强度(C、φ)处于极限应力状态,一旦遇到降雨浸润和冲刷,迅速触变液化,转化为高浓度泥石流的侵蚀产沙过程.     

云南雨季开始期的特征以及与南海季风和印度季风开始期的可能关系

应用EOF、Morlet小波分析方法对云南雨季开始期的时空特征及多尺度周期变化特征进行分析,使用相关分析初步分析印度季风和南海季风开始期与其关系.结果表明：（1）云南雨季开始期的EOF第一模态表明全省雨季开始期一致偏早（晚）,EOF第二模态表明滇中及以东、滇东北、滇东南、滇西南部分地区与滇西、滇西北、滇南大部分地区雨季开始期反相变化的空间分布特征.（2）云南雨季开始期存在着明显的周期性波动,连续小波变换分析表明云南雨季开始期存在2～4年和5～7年的振荡周期.（3）南海季风开始期与云南雨季开始期相关不好,印度季风开始期与云南雨季开始期存在很好的相关性.     

A ca. 800-Year Lithologic Record of Drought from Sub-annually Laminated Lake Sediment, East Java

Lithostratigraphic analyses of a sub-annually laminated core from Ranu Lamongan, a maar lake on the island of Java, document considerable changes in the lake’s chemistry and water balance over the past ca. 800 calendar years. Composition of the dark (clastics) and light (diatoms and/or calcium carbonate minerals) couplets suggests that these laminations form in response to seasonal changes in rainfall and water-column overturn in the lake. Calcium carbonate is not continuous in the core, and when it occurs it varies, sometimes abruptly, in carbonate phase and elemental composition (low Mg-calcite Mg-calcite, and aragonite). A significant correlation between Mg/Ca changes and δ¹⁸O variations in authigenic calcium carbonate suggest the basin is highly sensitive to hydrologic variation. Lithologic data suggest calcium carbonate precipitates and thus records hydrologic conditions during the dry season – a season in which rainfall anomalies are highly correlated with the phase of ENSO. Our carbonate-based record of Mg/Ca shows variability in evaporative concentration on a quasi-seasonal frequency for the past ca. 800 years. Our record shows two multi-decadal periods of drought – ca. 1275–1325 and ca. 1450–1650 CE – the latter of which was especially strong and/or prolonged. Our record also shows a possible change in drought frequency at around 1650 CE, in which periods of calcium carbonate precipitation and Mg/Ca change shifted from multi-decadal to interannual variability. Given the strong correlations between modern-day drought in East Java and ENSO variability, our drought record may indicate a regime shift in the behavior of the ENSO system about 350 years ago. Finally, comparisons between our record and others suggest that variation in ENSO on centennial and sub-centennial scales is not strongly associated with changes in the global mean climate state.     

1796—2015年成都雨季降水量序列重建与特征分析

利用清代雨雪分寸记录和现代器测资料,重建了成都1796—2015年分辨率为年的雨季降水量序列。结果表明,过去220 a间成都的平均雨季降水量为838 mm,19世纪20~40年代、80年代到20世纪10年代、20世纪30~40年代降水偏多,19世纪初到20年代、50~70年代、20世纪20年代、50年代到21世纪初降水偏少,并在1879—1880年发生了由少到多的明显突变;降水最多的10 a为1832年、1896年、1898年、1899年、1903年、1907年、1915年、1921年、1937年和1947年,最少的10 a为1814年、1838年、1865年、1868年、1869年、1872年、1930年、1939年、1970年和2002年。成都雨季降水量存在显著的50~75 a周期,和太平洋年代际振荡（Pacific Decadal Oscillation, PDO)指数在50~70 a信号上存在较强的负相关,且与上一年冬季至当年秋季北印度洋的全球海表温度（SST）及当年夏秋季赤道太平洋的SST也存在较强的负相关,SST偏暖（冷）时,雨季降水量往往偏少（多）。     

中国西部雨季特征及高原季风对其影响的研究

 利用中国西部269站侯降水资料,对西部的主雨季进行定义,并分析讨论了雨季的空间分布和时间变化特征,结果表明,西部雨季演变是从西北和东南两头开始,相向中部移动,结束期也是如此,两头早中间迟。新疆的主雨季不明显;将西部雨季主要划分为北疆、南疆、高原西部、高原东部、东南区、东北区等6个区。各区降水量逐侯时间变化的分布有3种形态:南疆、高原西部和东南区为单峰型,北疆和高原东部为双峰型,东北区为三峰型。高原东侧和内蒙古西部雨季开始期推迟,结束期提前,雨季有变短趋势,西部其余地方相反,开始期提前,雨季有变长趋势。西部雨季开始期与结束期的年代际变化有同位相振动特征,即两者同时提前或推迟。初步分析了高原季风对西部雨季的影响。     

石林巴江流域近40年气温和降水变化的初步研究

利用数理统计方法分析了石林巴江流域中部近40年（1964-2001年）的气温和降雨量的年、季节和月变化。本区气温的增温速率是0．2℃／10a，与昆明市区增温率相近，低于同期全国增温速率；雨季（夏季）增温幅度大于旱季（冬季）。在过去40年中，年降雨量增加总量约为40mm，雨季降雨量略有降低，而旱季降雨量略有增强，全年第一次降雨强度和全年日最大降雨量也略有增加，但每年连续不降雨天数增加约1．9天。降雨量变化的波动性比气温变化的波动性强。气温、降雨量在1960s、1970s、1980s和1990s表现出不同的变化趋势。     

Whose knowledge matters in climate change adaptation? Perceived and measured rainfall trends during the last half century in south‐western Tanzania

Parts of eastern Africa have experienced substantial climatic variability and extremes during the last few decades. Here we explore the extent to which local place‐based knowledge is used and is relevant to understanding and appropriately responding to place‐based climate variability and change (specifically rainfall) in an area of considerable rainfall variability in south‐western Tanzania. Primary data were collected using focus group discussions and household questionnaire surveys, and secondary data obtained from government institutions. Various changes associated with the frequency, intensity and consistency of rainfall during the period 1960 to 2014 are explored. Findings indicate that knowledge and perceptions associated with climate operate at a local level, and that these are not necessarily applicable to neighbouring regions. Smallholder farmers in the Great Ruaha River Sub‐Basin rely on incremental adaptations of agricultural practices, in response to climatic stresses which have long‐term implications. We argue that incremental adaptations ought to be supplemented by more transformative changes of existing agricultural practices, such as using more climate‐adapted crops and livestock. Moreover, caution is required when examining human perceptions and responses to climate variability and change at the site‐specific scale, as such findings may not necessarily be applicable to broader regions in all cases.     

黑河流域日降水格局及其时间变化

利用10个气象站1950—2000年日降水资料,对黑河流域的降水及其时空格局进行了研究。结果表明:①降水事件以≤5 mm的降水为主,占全年降水事件的82%,0～10 d间隔期占全年无降水期的40.7％,＞10 d间隔期占59.3％;②年降水日数与降水量之间存在显著的正相关性(r=0.78,P<0.01),＞10 mm降水总量与年降水量呈显著正相关,而≤5 mm降水总量与年降水量的相关性差;③＞10 mm和≤5 mm的降水总量变化范围分别为:0～262.6 mm,20.3～172.7 mm ,变异系数分别为0.25～0.92,0.17～0.25;④近50 d来,黑河流域近50 d降水量的变化总体上呈平稳上升趋势,≤5 mm的降水日呈现小幅下降的趋势,≥10 mm的降水日呈小幅上升的趋势。0～10 d的降水间隔期出现的频率总体保持不变,＞10 d间隔期出现的频率出现明显的下降趋势,年内总降水日数保持不变。     

Summer Moisture Variability in East Central Sweden Since the Mid-Eighteenth Century Recorded in Tree Rings

To make predictions of future climate it is necessary to understand the past climate—temperature as well as precipitation. While a wealth of temperature proxies exist from northern latitudes, there is still a lack of information about past precipitation variability. Here we present a 300‐year‐long tree‐ring width chronology from xeric‐site Scots pines (Pinus sylvestris L.) in Tyresta National Park, east central Sweden. Tree‐ring widths were compared to the long observed temperature and precipitation records from Stockholm during 1786–2000. Analyses of the climate/growth relationship showed that, in general, May–June precipitation had a dominating influence on pine growth. However, during dry periods, negative responses to June–July temperature were stronger, especially evident in the late nineteenth century. Periods of below‐average growth were associated with dry conditions in May–June, but occasionally periods of wet and cool summers also produced narrow rings. Periods of above‐average growth were linked to wet, but sporadically also cool and dry, early summers. The years between 1815 and 1833 appear to be particularly dry in the 300‐year context. Since growth anomalies are found in other Swedish drought‐sensitive tree‐ring chronologies during this period, it is likely that this dry period had a regional extent. This is the first tree‐ring chronology from southern Sweden that provides multi‐century information of past summer drought and moisture variability with high resolution and the study will add important information regarding past climate variability in southern Sweden.     

Start, end and dry spells of the growing season in semi-arid southern Zimbabwe

Smallholder agriculture in semi-arid Zimbabwe is dependent on the seasonal characteristics of rainfall. The determination of start, end and length of the growing season, and the pattern of dry spells during the season is useful information for planning land preparation and planting activities. This study was designed to assess whether there has been any changes in the start, end and length of growing season and the pattern of 14 and 21 day dry spells during the season. Daily rainfall data were collected from five meteorological stations located in southern Zimbabwe. Results indicated that no significant changes in the start, end and subsequent length of growing season occurred over the past 50-74 years. There was no significant change in the number of wet days per season over the period reviewed. There is a high probability of 14 and 21 day dry spells during the peak rainfall months. The relationship between start and end of growing season is stronger as aridity increases. We conclude that growing seasons have not changed significantly over the past 50-74 years in southern Zimbabwe. As smallholder agriculture continues to be affected by dry spells and droughts, there is scope in exploring rainwater management technologies in rainfed cropping systems.     

Different characteristics of the structure of atmospheric boundary layer between dry and rainy periods over the northern Tibetan Plateau

In this paper, based on in-situ observational data of the Coordinated Enhanced Observing Period (CEOP) Asia-Australia Monsoon Project (CAMP) on the Tibetan Plateau (CAMP-Tibet), structure of the Atmospheric Boundary Layer (ABL) was preliminarily studied during the dry and rainy seasons. The main results show: (a) Diurnal variation of the ABL is obvious over the northern Tibetan Plateau area. The height of the ABL is different with the season change, which ranges from 2,211 m to 4,430 m during the pre-monsoon season and from 1,006 m to 2,212 m during the monsoon season. The ABL height is higher during the dry period than during the rainy period. (b) The humidity is lower during the dry period than during the rainy period, and there are reverse humidity during both periods. (c) Horizontal wind direction is mostly west during the dry period, east under the height of 2,500 m and west above the height of 2,500 m during the rainy period. The wind speed is low during both the rainy and dry periods in the lower ABL layer. The wind speed is stronger within the upper ABL during the dry period than during the rainy period.