Effect of chlorophyll-a spatial distribution on upper ocean temperature in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific

Effect of the spatial distributions of chlorophyll-a concentration on upper ocean temperature and currents in the equatorial Pacific is investigated through a set of numerical experiments by using an ocean general circulation model. This study indicates that enhanced meridional gradient of chlorophyll-a between the equator and off-equatorial regions can strengthen zonal circulation and lead to a decrease in equatorial sea surface temperature （SST）. However, the circulation changes by themselves are not effective enough to affect SST in the equatorial cold tongue （CT） region. The comparison between the experiments indicates that the CT SST are more sensitive to chlorophyll-a distribution away from the equator. The off-equatorial chlorophyll-a traps more solar radiation in the mixed layer, therefore, the temperature in the thermoeline decreases. The cold water can then be transported to the equator by the meridional circulation within the mixed layer. Furthermore, the relation among CT SST, the surface heat flux, and the equatorial upwelling are discussed. The study implies the simulation biases of temperature on the equator are not only related to the local ocean dynamics but also related to some deficiency in simulating off-equatorial processes.     

The observed teleconnection between the equatorial Amazon and the Intra-Americas Seas

Using observations of rainfall and SST analysis it is shown that there is a robust relationship with two-season lag between the austral summer (December–January–February [DJF]) Equatorial Amazon (EA) rainfall and the following boreal summer season (June–July–August [JJA]) Intra-Americas Seas (IAS) Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (SSTA). It is observed that in wetter than normal austral summer seasons over EA, the SSTA in the IAS are cooler than normal in the following JJA season. This teleconnection also manifests in the ocean heat content of the IAS region. Our analysis indicates that the net surface heat flux into the ocean (particularly the surface longwave and the shortwave radiative fluxes) dictates the strongest influence on the JJA Caribbean SSTA, the core region of the IAS where the observed teleconnection with EA rainfall is strongest. This study also finds that this teleconnection is in fact a manifestation of the remote ENSO forcing on the Caribbean SSTA through its modulation of the EA rainfall anomalies. In a wet DJF year over EA, the Atlantic Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) moves further southward than climatology. This causes the dry limb of the associated overturning circulation of the Atlantic ITCZ to reside over the Caribbean Sea region in the subsequent March–April–May and JJA seasons. As a result of this large-scale descent in the wet DJF year over EA, there is a net decrease in the heat flux into the ocean from increased emission of surface longwave radiation in the presence of anomalously dry atmosphere. In a dry DJF year over EA the Atlantic ITCZ is nearly co-located in the core region of the IAS, which is northward than the climatological location, resulting in the descending limb of the overturning location to be located further south of the Caribbean Sea leading to warmer SSTA.     

Stable and unstable Rossby waves in the North Pacific current as inferred from the mean stratification

We have determined free Rossby waves in the North Pacific Current by numerical methods. We have found only two stable solutions — the barotropic and first-order baroclinic Rossby shear modes. The influence of the current on the dispersion features of these waves is small for the barotropic shear mode, but is significant for the baroclinic shear mode. An explicit comparison of the dispersion relations for the baroclinic wave in case of vanishing and non-vanishing current is given. We have found at most one unstable solution per wave number. The unstable wave with largest growth rate has an e-folding time of 1.1 year. We have calculated vertical profiles of the stream function and the temperature for the various shear modes at various wave numbers. The temperature shear modes have been calculated for later usage in a Rossby wave model to be fitted to observed temperature data from the North Pacific Current area.     

Vertical column abundances and seasonal cycle of acetylene,C2H2, above the Jungfraujoch station,derived from IR solar observations

Monthly mean total vertical column abundances of acetylene have been determined from series of infrared solar spectra recorded at the Jungfraujoch station, Switzerland, between June 1986 and April 1991. The data have been obtained by nonlinear least-squares fittings of the ₅ band R19 transition of C₂H₂ at 776.0818 cm^-1. The average of 22 monthly mean total vertical columns of C₂H₂ retrieved during that time interval of almost 5 years was found to be equal to (1.81±0.12)×10¹⁵ molec/cm², which corresponds to an average mixing ratio of (0,22±0.013) ppbv (parts per billion by volume) in a troposphere extending from the altitude of the station (3.58 km), up to 10.5 km. Despite the large variability found from year to year, a least-squares sine fit to the data reveals a seasonal variation with an amplitude of about ±40% of the mean; the maximum occurs during mid-winter and the minimum in the summer. The present results are compared critically with similar in-situ data found in the literature. A sinusoidal fit to all such free troposphere measurements made in-situ between 30°N and 60°N indicates good agreement in shape and phase with the seasonal variation derived above the Jungfraujoch, but their average column abundance, 2.3×10¹⁵ molec/cm², is about 30% higher; this difference is explained on the basis of non-upwelling meteorological conditions generally prevailing during ground-based remote solar observations.     

The variation of warm pool in the equatorial western pacific and its impacts on climate

1.IntroductionSincetheEINinoeventwasregardedasaresultoftheair--seainteraction(Bjerknes,1969;RasmussonandWallace,1983;Philander,1990),thetropicalPacifichasbeenPaidmuchattentionbymeteorologistsintheclimaticstudies.Particularly,thereisthehighestoceantemperatureintheequatorialwesternPacific,theuwarmpool",andthestrongestconvectionandatmosphericheatingareovertheequatorialwesternPacific,sothattheequatorialwesternPacificisveryimportanttotheclimaticvariationintheglobe.Thenumericalsimulationwithasi…     

Cloud vertical distribution from radiosonde,remote sensing,and model simulations

Knowledge of cloud vertical structure is important for meteorological and climate studies due to the impact of clouds on both the Earth’s radiation budget and atmospheric adiabatic heating. Yet it is among the most difficult quantities to observe. In this study, we develop a long-term (10 years) radiosonde-based cloud profile product over the Southern Great Plains and along with ground-based and space-borne remote sensing products, use it to evaluate cloud layer distributions simulated by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction global forecast system (GFS) model. The primary objective of this study is to identify advantages and limitations associated with different cloud layer detection methods and model simulations. Cloud occurrence frequencies are evaluated on monthly, annual, and seasonal scales. Cloud vertical distributions from all datasets are bimodal with a lower peak located in the boundary layer and an upper peak located in the high troposphere. In general, radiosonde low-level cloud retrievals bear close resemblance to the ground-based remote sensing product in terms of their variability and gross spatial patterns. The ground-based remote sensing approach tends to underestimate high clouds relative to the radiosonde-based estimation and satellite products which tend to underestimate low clouds. As such, caution must be exercised to use any single product. Overall, the GFS model simulates less low-level and more high-level clouds than observations. In terms of total cloud cover, GFS model simulations agree fairly well with the ground-based remote sensing product. A large wet bias is revealed in GFS-simulated relative humidity fields at high levels in the atmosphere.     

An integrated socio-environmental framework for glacier hazard management and climate change adaptation: lessons from Lake 513, Cordillera Blanca, Peru

Glacier hazards threaten societies in mountain regions worldwide. Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) pose risks to exposed and vulnerable populations and can be linked in part to long-term post-Little Ice Age climate change because precariously dammed glacial lakes sometimes formed as glaciers generally retreated after the mid-1800s. This paper provides an interdisciplinary and historical analysis of 40?years of glacier hazard management on Mount Hualcán, at glacial Lake 513, and in the city of Carhuaz in Peru’s Cordillera Blanca mountain range. The case study examines attempted hazard zoning, glacial lake evolution and monitoring, and emergency engineering projects to drain Lake 513. It also analyzes the 11 April 2010 Hualcán rock-ice avalanche that triggered a Lake 513 GLOF; we offer both a scientific assessment of the possible role of temperature on slope stability and a GIS spatial analysis of human impacts. Qualitative historical analysis of glacier hazard management since 1970 allows us to identify and explain why certain actions and policies to reduce risk were implemented or omitted. We extrapolate these case-specific variables to generate a broader socio-environmental framework identifying factors that can facilitate or impede disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. Facilitating factors are technical capacity, disaster events with visible hazards, institutional support, committed individuals, and international involvement. Impediments include divergent risk perceptions, imposed government policies, institutional instability, knowledge disparities, and invisible hazards. This framework emerges from an empirical analysis of a coupled social-ecological system and offers a holistic approach for integrating disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation.     

1949—2019 年影响山东的热带气旋时空分布及极端降水和大气环流异常

使用中国气象局热带气旋资料中心的热带气旋最佳路径数据集和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料提供的月平均数据,对北上影响山东的热带气旋（tropical cyclone,TC）及其造成的极端降水进行统计分析,并揭示了有利于 TC北移影响山东的大气环流特征。结果表明：影响山东的 TC主要出现 于 6—9 月,其中盛夏时节（7、8 月）TC对山东影响最大;TC影响山东时,强度主要为台风及以下等 级,或已发生变性;TC会引发山东极端降水事件,TC极端降水多出现在夏秋季（7—9 月）,其中8月的占比最大,9月次之,TC降水在极端降水事件中的占比约为 10%,但年际变化大,有些年份占比达60%以上,特别是1990 年以来 TC对极端降水的贡献显著增强;影响山东的 TC主要生成于西 北太平洋,多为转向型路径;当500 hPa位势高度异常场呈太平洋一日本遥相关型的正位相时,TC更易北上影响山东,此时西北太平洋副热带高压位置偏北,其外围气流会引导TC北上转向,对华东地区造成影响;850 hPa上,南海至西北太平洋存在异常气旋式环流,对流活跃,夏季风环流和季风槽加强,有利于TC的生成和发展,同时,华东、华南上空有异常上升运动,涡度增大,垂直风切变减小,水汽充沛,TC登陆后强度能得到较好的维持。     

The stability of the MOC as diagnosed from model projections for pre-industrial, present and future climates

The stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is investigated for various climate scenario runs, using data from the CMIP3 archive of coupled atmosphere-ocean models. Apart from atmospheric feedbacks, the sign of the salt flux into the Atlantic basin that is carried by the MOC determines whether the MOC is in the single or multiple equilibria regime. This salt advection feedback is analyzed by diagnosing the freshwater and salt budgets for the combined Atlantic and Arctic basins. Consistent with the finding that almost all coupled climate models recover from hosing experiments, it is found that most models feature a negative salt advection feedback in their pre-industrial climate: freshwater perturbations are damped by this feedback, excluding the existence of a stable off-state for the MOC. All models feature enhanced evaporation over the Atlantic basin in future climates, but for a moderate increase in radiative forcing (B1 and 2 CO₂ scenarios), there is a decrease of the fresh water flux carried by the MOC into the Atlantic (the deficit is made up by increased fresh water transport by the gyre circulation). In this forcing regime the salt advection feedback becomes less negative: for three models from an ensemble of eight it is positive in a 2 CO₂ climate, while two models feature a positive feedback in the pre-industrial climate. For even warmer climates (A1B-equilibrium and 4 CO₂) the salt feedback becomes more negative (damping) again. It is shown that the decrease in northward fresh water transport at 34°S by the MOC (in B1-equilibrium and 2 CO₂) is due to a reduction of the inflow of intermediate waters relative to thermocline waters, associated with a robust shoaling of the MOC in future, warmer climates. In A1B and 4 CO₂ climates northward freshwater transport increases again. The MOC keeps shoaling, but both intermediate and thermocline water masses freshen.     

The vertical distribution of climate forcings and feedbacks from the surface to top of atmosphere

The radiative forcings and feedbacks that determine Earth’s climate sensitivity are typically defined at the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) or tropopause, yet climate sensitivity itself refers to a change in temperature at the surface. In this paper, we describe how TOA radiative perturbations translate into surface temperature changes. It is shown using first principles that radiation changes at the TOA can be equated with the change in energy stored by the oceans and land surface. This ocean and land heat uptake in turn involves an adjustment of the surface radiative and non-radiative energy fluxes, with the latter being comprised of the turbulent exchange of latent and sensible heat between the surface and atmosphere. We employ the radiative kernel technique to decompose TOA radiative feedbacks in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report climate models into components associated with changes in radiative heating of the atmosphere and of the surface. (We consider the equilibrium response of atmosphere-mixed layer ocean models subjected to an instantaneous doubling of atmospheric CO₂). It is shown that most feedbacks, i.e., the temperature, water vapor and cloud feedbacks, (as well as CO₂ forcing) affect primarily the turbulent energy exchange at the surface rather than the radiative energy exchange. Specifically, the temperature feedback increases the surface turbulent (radiative) energy loss by 2.87 W m^?2 K^?1 (0.60 W m^?2 K^?1) in the multimodel mean; the water vapor feedback decreases the surface turbulent energy loss by 1.07 W m^?2 K^?1 and increases the surface radiative heating by 0.89 W m^?2 K^?1; and the cloud feedback decreases both the turbulent energy loss and the radiative heating at the surface by 0.43 and 0.24 W m^?2 K^?1, respectively. Since changes to the surface turbulent energy exchange are dominated in the global mean sense by changes in surface evaporation, these results serve to highlight the fundamental importance of the global water cycle to Earth’s climate sensitivity.     

The general circulation model precipitation bias over the southwestern equatorial Indian Ocean and its implications for simulating the South Asian monsoon

Most of current general circulation models (GCMs) show a remarkable positive precipitation bias over the southwestern equatorial Indian Ocean (SWEIO), which can be thought of as a westward expansion of the simulated IO convergence zone toward the coast of Africa. The bias is common to both coupled and uncoupled models, suggesting that its origin does not stem from the way boundary conditions are specified. The spatio-temporal evolution of the precipitation and associated three-dimensional atmospheric circulation biases is comprehensively characterized by comparing the GFDL AM3 atmospheric model to observations. It is shown that the oceanic bias, which develops in spring and reduces during the monsoon season, is associated to a consistent precipitation and circulation anomalous pattern over the whole Indian region. In the vertical, the areas are linked by an anomalous Hadley-type meridional circulation, whose northern branch subsides over northeastern India significantly affecting the monsoon evolution (e.g., delaying its onset). This study makes the case that the precipitation bias over the SWEIO is forced by the model excess response to the local meridional sea surface temperature (SST) gradient through enhanced near-surface meridional wind convergence. This is suggested by observational evidence and supported by AM3 sensitivity experiments. The latter show that relaxing the magnitude of the meridional SST gradient in the SWEIO can lead to a significant reduction of both local and large-scale precipitation and circulation biases. The ability of local anomalies over the SWEIO to force a large-scale remote response to the north is further supported by numerical experiments with the GFDL spectral dry dynamical core model. By imposing a realistic anomalous heating source over the SWEIO the model is able to reproduce the main dynamical features of the AM3 bias. These results indicate that improved GCM simulations of the South Asian summer monsoon could be achieved by reducing the springtime model bias over the SWEIO. Deficiencies in the atmospheric model, and in particular in the convective parameterization, are suggested to play a key role. Finally, the important mechanism controlling the simulated precipitation distribution over South Asia found here should be considered in the interpretation and attribution of regional precipitation variation under climate change.     

The Global Paleomonsoon as seen through speleothem records from Asia and the Americas

The regional monsoons of the world have long been viewed as seasonal atmospheric circulation reversal—analogous to a thermally-driven land-sea breeze on a continental scale. This conventional view of monsoons is now being integrated at a global scale and accordingly, a new paradigm has emerged which considers regional monsoons to be manifestations of global-scale seasonal changes in response to overturning of atmospheric circulation in the tropics and subtropics, and henceforth, interactive components of a singular Global Monsoon (GM) system. The paleoclimate community, however, tends to view ‘paleomonsoon’ (PM), largely in terms of regional circulation phenomena. In the past decade, many high-quality speleothem oxygen isotope (δ¹⁸O) records have been established from the Asian Monsoon and the South American Monsoon regions that primarily reflect changes in the integrated intensities of monsoons on orbital-to-decadal timescales. With the emergence of these high-resolution and absolute-dated records from both sides of the Equator, it is now possible to test a concept of the ‘Global-Paleo-Monsoon’ (GPM) on a wide-range of timescales. Here we present a comprehensive synthesis of globally-distributed speleothem δ¹⁸O records and highlight three aspects of the GPM that are comparable to the modern GM: (1) the GPM intensity swings on different timescales; (2) their global extent; and (3) an anti-phased inter-hemispheric relationship between the Asian and South American monsoon systems on a wide range of timescales.     

Sources,transport, and sinks of SO<Subscript>2</Subscript> over the equatorial Pacific during the Pacific Atmospheric Sulfur Experiment

The Pacific Atmospheric Sulfur Experiment (PASE) is the first sulfur-budget field experiment to feature simultaneous flux measurements of DMS marine emissions and SO₂ deposition to the ocean surface. We make use of these data to constrain a 1-D chemical transport model to study the production and loss pathways for DMS and SO₂ over the equatorial Pacific. Model results suggest that OH is the main sink for DMS in the boundary layer (BL), and the average DMS-to-SO₂ conversion efficiency is ~73%. In an exploratory run involving the addition of 1 pptv of BrO as a second oxidant, a 14% increase in the DMS flux is needed beyond that based on OH oxidation alone. This BrO addition also reduces the DMS-to-SO₂ conversion efficiency from 73% to 60%. The possibility of non-DMS sources of marine sulfur influencing the estimated conversion efficiency was explored and found to be unconvincing. For BL conditions, SO₂ losses consist of 48% dry deposition, while transport loss to the BuL and aerosol scavenging each account for another 19%. The conversion of SO₂ to H₂SO₄ consumes the final 14%. In the BuL, cloud scavenging removes 85% of the SO₂, thus resulting in a decreasing vertical profile for SO₂. The average SO₂ dry deposition velocity from direct measurements (i.e., 0.36 cm sec⁻¹) is approximately 50% of what is calculated from the 1-D model and the global GEOS-Chem model. This suggests that the current generation of global models may be significantly overestimating SO₂ deposition rates over some tropical marine areas. Although the specific mechanism cannot be determined, speculation here is that the dry deposition anomalous results may point to the presence of a micro-surface chemical phenomenon involving partial saturation with either S(IV) and/or S(VI) DMS oxidation products. This could also appear as a pH drop in the ocean’s surface microfilm layer in this region. Finally, we propose that the enhanced SO₂ level observed in the lower free troposphere versus that in the upper BuL during PASE is most likely the result of transported DMS/SO₂-rich free-tropospheric air parcels from the east of the PASE sampling area, rather than an inadequate representation in the model of local convection.     

The geographical distribution of the potential for seed germination and seedling establishment ofPinus densiflora in Japan as influenced by soil and air temperatures

Summary The geographical distribution ofPinus densiflora forests in Japan was examined in relation to the seed germination and seedling establishment information obtained from laboratory experiments, field observations and field experiments. The laboratory experiments indicated that seed germination can occur in all areas of Japan because effective cumulative soil temperatures reaches to 75 °C · day everywhere. However, the field observations and field experiments suggested that seedling establishment is impossible in the northern, eastern and central parts of Hokkaido because the effective cumulative air temperature at a height of 6 cm over bare ground is less than 2 000 °C · day. These results agree approximately with the actual geographical distribution ofP. densiflora forest, which can not be found under natural circumstances in these areas.With 3 Figures     

长江下游地区汛期暴雨气候特征分析

根据2008-2013年我国暴雨统计结果, 分析了6 a间我国暴雨分布情况、变化趋势和演变规律, 结果表明:我国年降水量分布总体趋势由西北向东南依次递增, 西南地区东部、江汉地区、江淮地区、江南地区及华南地区是每年暴雨的多发区域, 华南南部(尤其是海南)为显著的暴雨多发区, 年暴雨日数常常超过10 d。我国每年平均暴雨日数为217.5 d, 以6-8月为最多; 平均每年出现39次主要暴雨过程次数, 其中8次由热带气旋登陆引起, 约有58%的主要暴雨过程出现在6-8月, 以7月最多; 每年平均出现特大暴雨26站次, 以华南居多, 年最大日降水量介于336.1~614.7 mm之间, 主要出现在6-10月之间。每年遴选出的强度强、范围大、影响显著的10次重大暴雨事件均出现在5-11月, 其中以南方暴雨占多数。

     

The semiannual oscillation and Antarctic climate, part 5: impact on the annual temperature cycle as derived from NCEP/NCAR re-analysis

We use NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data to study the impact of the semiannual oscillation (SAO) on the annual cycle of Antarctic near-surface temperature. When the SAO is weak, the contracted phases (March/April and September/October) are warm and the expanded phases (December/January and June/July) cold. This pattern is explained in terms of the changing meridional fetch of the circumpolar pressure trough. Because of the wave number three character of the SAO, large regional deviations are found. For instance, enhanced north-westerly flow in the second expansion phase (June/July) of weak SAO years limits the growth of the sea ice in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen seas, leading to anomalously high temperatures in the Antarctic Peninsula region. The short (<50 year) temperature records at Antarctic stations still carry the fingerprint of decadal SAO variability. By matching the observed monthly temperature trends to the patterns derived from the gridded re-analysis, we propose a background Antarctic warming trend for the second expansion phase (June/July) of 4.62 ± 1.02 °C per century, four times the annual value. Received: 23 August 1999 / Accepted: 28 October 1999     

Photochemical,advective and turbulent effects on the meridional distribution of ozone

Summary A time-dependent study of the formation, distribution and destruction of atmospheric ozone is made for a meridional plane between 15 km and 45 km under the assumption of zonal symmetry. Included are time-effects of photochemistry, advection and turbulence, using presently available information on theoretical and observational data. The attempt is made to investigate the important part played by pure photochemistry, by the various transport processes and by the combination of both.In the photochemical calculations the equations of a pure oxygen photochemistry and solar ultraviolet energy data obtained from recent rocket observations are used.Murgatroyd andSingleton's results of a possible meridional circulation andPrabhakara's pattern of large-scale eddy diffusion, derived from the spread of radioactive tungsten in the stratosphere, are assumed to be the basic transport meachanisms.Several combinations of these non-photochemical processes are tested in the model and compared with recent observations.The relatively largest seasonal variations of the O₃-concentration take place in the upper stratosphere with a maximum concentration in the high-latitude winter-hemisphere. In the midstratosphere the maximum concentration appears over the equatorial latitudes following the sun's position. In the lower stratosphere the highest O₃-concentrations are over the polar latitudes throughout the year.The seasonal variation of the total ozone at middle and high latitudes can be explained by photochemical effects, the increase of total ozone with increasing latitude by the combined effects of photochemistry and transport processes only. With an advective transport of 70% ofMurgatroyd andSingleton's circulation we have reasonably well reproduced an observed spring distribution of O₃ in the northern hemisphere.

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Zusammenfassung Die Bildung, Ausbreitung und Zerstörung des atmosphärischen Ozons wird in einem meridionalen Profil zwischen 15 km und 45 km unter der Annahme zonaler Symmetrie als nichtstationäres Problem untersucht. Die Einflüsse der Photochemie, der Advektion und der Turbulenz werden als Funktionen der Zeit behandelt. Es wird versucht, die Bedeutung der photochemischen Einflüsse, der verschiedenen Transportprozesse sowie der Kombination beider in einem numerischen Modell zu studieren; gegenwärtig verfügbare theoretische und experimentelle Daten finden Verwendung.In den photochemischen Berechnungen werden die Gleichungen der reinen Sauerstoff-Photochemie und mit Raketen ermittelte Daten der verfügbaren Sonnenenergie verwendet.Murgatroyds undSinlgetons Ergebnisse einer möglichen meridionalen Zirkulation und die vonPrabhakara benützten Werte der großräumigen Turbulenz, die aus der Verbreitung des radioaktiven Wolframs abgeleitet worden sind, werden als Transportmechanismen betrachtet. Verschiedene Kombinationen dieser Transportgrößen werden im Modell getestet und mit neueren Beobachtungen verglichen.Die relativ größten jahreszeitlichen Schwankungen der Ozonkonzentration treten in der oberen Stratosphäre auf mit einer maximalen Konzentration in der Winterhemisphäre hoher Breiten. In der mittleren Stratosphäre befindet sich das Maximum über den äquatorialen Breiten. In der unteren Stratosphäre findet man die höchsten Ozonkonzentrationen während des ganzen Jahres über den polaren Breiten.Der Jahresgang des Gesamtgehaltes an Ozon über mittleren und hohen Breiten kann durch photochemische Einflüsse erklärt werden, die Zunahme des Gesamtozons mit zunehmender Breite nur durch ein Zusammenwirken von photochemischen und Transport-Prozessen. Mit 70% der Advektion vonMurgatroyd undSingleton haben wir eine beobachtete Frühjahrsverteilung des Ozons in der nördlichen Hemisphäre mit guter Annäherung reproduziert.

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Résumé On examine ici la formation, la propagation et la destruction de l'ozone atmosphérique dans un profil méridien entre 15 et 45 km d'altitude. Pour cela, on admet une symétrie zonale et qui'il s'agit d'un problème non stationnaire. On considére les influences de la photochimie, de l'advection et de la turbulence en fonction du temps. On essaie d'étudier au moyen d'un modèle numérique l'importance des influences de la seule photochimie, des différents processus de transport ainsi que la combinaison des deux phénomènes. Dans ce but, on utilise les valeurs théoriques et expérimentales disponibles actuellement.Dans le calcul photochimique, on utilise aussi bien les équations de la photochimie pure de l'oxygène que des valeurs de l'énergie solaire disponible, obtenues au moyen de mesures effectuées avec des fusées. Comme mécanismes de transport, on prend en considération les résultats des études deMurgatroyd etSingleton sur une circulation méridionale possible ainsi que les valeurs de la turbulence des grands espaces utilisées parPrabhakara. Ces dernières découlent de la dissémination du wolfram radioactif. On fait figurer dans le modèle diverses combinaisons de ces grandeurs de transport et on compare les résultats ainsi obtenus aux observations les plus récentes.Les variations saisonnières relativement les plus importantes de la concentration d'ozone se rencontrent dans la stratosphère supérieure. La concentration maximale se situe dans les hautes latitudes de l'hémisphère hivernal. Dans la stratosphère moyenne, le maximum se rencontre au voisinage de l'équateur. Dans la basse stratosphère, on note les plus fortes concentrations d'ozone au voisinage des pôles et cela durant toute l'année.On peut expliquer par des influences photochimiques les fluctuations annuelles de la teneur globale en ozone dans les latitudes moyennes et élevées. L'augmentation de la teneur totale de l'ozone avec la latitude ne s'explique que par les effets conjugués des processus photochimiques et de transport. On a assez bien pu reproduire une répartition de l'ozone observée au printemps sur l'hémisphère nord en utilisant le 70% de l'advection calculée selonMurgatroyd etSingleton.

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This investigation was begun while the author was on leave at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, USA.     

The effect of global climate change, population distribution, and climate mitigation on building energy use in the U.S. and China

Climate change will affect the energy system in a number of ways, one of which is through changes in demands for heating and cooling in buildings. Understanding the potential effect of climate change on heating and cooling demands requires taking into account not only the manner in which the building sector might evolve over time, but also important uncertainty about the nature of climate change itself. In this study, we explore the uncertainty in climate change impacts on heating and cooling requirement by constructing estimates of heating and cooling degree days (HDD/CDDs) for both reference (no-policy) and 550 ppmv CO₂ concentration pathways built from three different Global Climate Models (GCMs) output and three scenarios of gridded population distribution. The implications that changing climate and population distribution might have for building energy consumption in the U.S. and China are then explored by using the results of HDD/CDDs as inputs to a detailed, building energy model, nested in the long-term global integrated assessment framework, Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). The results across the modeled changes in climate and population distributions indicate that unabated climate change would cause building sector’s final energy consumption to decrease modestly (6 % decrease or less depending on climate models) in both the U.S. and China by the end of the century as decreased heating consumption more than offsets increased cooling using primarily electricity. However, global climate change virtually has negligible effect on total CO₂ emissions in the buildings sector in both countries. The results also indicate more substantial implications for the fuel mix with increases in electricity and decreases in other fuels, which may be consistent with climate mitigation goals. The variation in results across all scenarios due to variation of population distribution is smaller than variation due to the use of different climate models.