Study of the Geoeffectiveness and Galactic Cosmic-Ray Response of VarSITI-ISEST Campaign Events in Solar Cycle 24

We analyze and compare the geomagnetic and galactic cosmic-ray (GCR) response of selected solar events, particularly the campaign events of the group International Study of Earth-affecting Solar Transients (ISEST) of the program Variability of the Sun and Its Terrestrial Impact (VarSITI). These selected events correspond to Solar Cycle 24, and we identified various of their features during their near-Earth passage. We evaluated the hourly data of geomagnetic indices and ground-based neutron monitors and the concurrent data of interplanetary plasma and field parameters. We recognized distinct features of these events and solar wind parameters when the geomagnetic disturbance was at its peak and when the cosmic-ray intensity was most affected. We also discuss the similarities and differences in the geoeffectiveness and GCR response of the solar and interplanetary structures in the light of plasma and field variations and physical mechanism(s), which play a crucial role in influencing the geomagnetic activity and GCR intensity.     

Geoeffectiveness of magnetic cloud, shock/sheath, interaction region, high-speed stream and their combined occurrence

A subset of CMEs, called interplanetary magnetic clouds (MCs), are observed to have systematic rotation [northward to southward (NS) or southward to northward (SN)] in their field structures. These MCs identified in the heliospheric plasma and field data at 1 AU may have different features associated with them. These structures (NS/SN) may be isolated MC moving with the ambient solar wind. MCs (NS/SN) may also be associated with shock/sheath region, formed due to compression of the ambient plasma/field ahead of them. A fraction from each of these four types of MCs have additional features, being ‘pushed’ by fast solar wind streams from coronal holes, forming interaction region (IR) between MCs and high-speed solar wind streams (HSS). Using these different sets of MCs, we have done a detailed study of the geoeffectiveness of NS and SN turning MCs and their associated features (shock/sheath, IR and HSS). To study the process that produces the geomagnetic disturbances and influences its amplitude/duration, we have utilized the interplanetary plasma and field parameters, namely, plasma velocity, density, temperature, pressure, field strength and its north-south component, during the passage of these structures with different associated properties. Differences in the geoeffectiveness of MCs with different structural and dynamical properties have been identified. The possible role of high-speed stream in influencing the recovery time (and hence duration) of geomagnetic disturbance has also been investigated. A best-fit equation representing the relation between level of the geomagnetic activity (due to MCs) and interplanetary plasma/field parameter has been obtained.     

Solar Modulation of Cosmic Rays during the Declining and Minimum Phases of Solar Cycle 23: Comparison with Past Three Solar Cycles

We study solar modulation of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) during the deep solar minimum, including the declining phase, of solar cycle 23 and compare the results of this unusual period with the results obtained during similar phases of the previous solar cycles 20, 21, and 22. These periods consist of two epochs each of negative and positive polarities of the heliospheric magnetic field from the north polar region of the Sun. In addition to cosmic-ray data, we utilize simultaneous solar and interplanetary plasma/field data including the tilt angle of the heliospheric current sheet. We study the relation between simultaneous variations in cosmic ray intensity and solar/interplanetary parameters during the declining and the minimum phases of cycle 23. We compare these relations with those obtained for the same phases in the three previous solar cycles. We observe certain peculiar features in cosmic ray modulation during the minimum of solar cycle 23 including the record high GCR intensity. We find, during this unusual minimum, that the correlation of GCR intensity is poor with sunspot number (correlation coefficient R=?0.41), better with interplanetary magnetic field (R=?0.66), still better with solar wind velocity (R=?0.80) and much better with the tilt angle of the heliospheric current sheet (R=?0.92). In our view, it is not the diffusion or the drift alone, but the solar wind convection that is the most likely additional effect responsible for the record high GCR intensity observed during the deep minimum of solar cycle 23.     

Hysteresis,time lag,and relation between solar activity and cosmic rays during solar cycle 24

We study galactic cosmic ray (GCR) modulation during solar cycle 24. For this study we utilize neutron monitor data together with sunspot number (SSN) and 10.7 cm solar radio flux (SRF) data. We plot hysteresis curve between the GCR intensity and SSN, and GCR intensity and SRF. We performed time-lag correlation analysis to determine the time lag between GCR intensity and solar activity parameters. The time lag is determined not only for the whole solar cycle, but also during the two polarity states of the heliosphere (A<0 and A>0) in solar cycle 24. We notice differences in time lags during two polarity epochs of the solar cycle. We discuss these differences in the light of existing modulation models. We compare the results of this very weak solar activity cycle with the corresponding results reported for the previous comparatively more active solar cycles.     

Fast Plasma Streams Recorded Near the Earth During 1985–1996

A reference catalogue of 373 well-defined high-speed plasma streams identified in the solar wind measurements from 1985 to 1996 is reported. The data base for this study is the interplanetary plasma/magnetic field data compilation made available by the NSSDC/WDC-A for rockets and satellites (NASA/GSFC-Greenbelt). The main characteristics of those streams, such as the beginning time, the duration, the origin of them (corotating or flare-generated), the interplanetary magnetic field polarity (Stanford magnetic field), are given in the catalogue.The long-term variation in the occurrence rate of high-speed streams shows interesting differences between even and odd solar cycles when catalogues for solar cycles 20, 21, and 22 are considered together. Hence, this catalogue, extended now over three solar cycles, should be useful for studies connected with solar-interplanetary or solar-terrestrial phenomena, and to clarify solar activity in time.     

Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections,Associated Features,and Transient Modulation of Galactic Cosmic Rays

Interplanetary structures such as shocks, sheaths, interplanetary counterparts of coronal mass ejections (ICMEs), magnetic clouds, and corotating interaction regions (CIRs) are of special interest for the study of the transient modulation of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs). These structures modulate the GCR intensity with varying amplitudes and recovery-time profiles. It is known that ICMEs are mainly responsible for Forbush decreases in the GCR intensity. However, not all of the ICMEs produce such decreases in GCR intensity. We utilize GCR intensity data recorded by neutron monitors and solar-wind plasma/field data during the passage of ICMEs with different features and structures, and we perform a superposed-epoch analysis of the data. We also adopt the best-fit approach with suitable functions to interpret the observed similarities and differences in various parameters. Using the GCR-effectiveness as a measure of the cosmic-ray response to the passage of ICMEs, about half of the ICMEs identified during 1996?–?2009 are found to produce moderate to very large intensity depressions in GCR intensity. The ICMEs associated with halo CMEs, magnetic-cloud (MC) structures, bidirectional superthermal electron (BDE) signatures, and those driving shocks are 1.5 to 4 times more GCR effective than the ICMEs not associated with these structures/features. Further, the characteristic recovery time of GCR intensity due to shock/BDE/MC/halo-CME-associated ICMEs is larger than those due to ICMEs not associated with these structures/features.     

A Complete Catalogue of High-Speed Solar Wind Streams during Solar Cycle 23

High-speed solar wind streams (HSSWSs) are ejected from the Sun and travel into the interplanetary space. Because of their high speed, they carry out energetic particles such as protons and heavy ions, which leads to an increase in the mean interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). Since the Earth is in the path of those streams, Earth’s magnetosphere interacts with the disturbed magnetic field, leading to a significant radiation-induced degradation of technological systems. These interactions provide an enhanced energy transfer from the solar wind/IMF system into the Earth’s magnetosphere and initiate geomagnetic disturbances that may have a possible impact on human health. Solar cycle 23 was a particularly unusual cycle with many energetic phenomena during its descending phase and also had an extended minimum. We have identified and catalogued the HSSWSs of this cycle and determined their characteristics, such as their maximum velocity, beginning and ending time, duration, and possible sources. We identified 710 HSSWSs and compared them with the corresponding characteristics of the streams of previous solar cycles. For first time, we used the CME data to study the stream sources, which led to useful results for the monitoring and forecasting of space weather effects.     

High-Speed Solar Wind Streams and Geomagnetic Storms During Solar Cycle 24

An updated catalog is created of 303 well-defined high-speed solar wind streams that occurred in the time period 2009?–?2016. These streams are identified from solar and interplanetary measurements obtained from the OMNIWeb database as well as from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) database. This time interval covers the deep minimum observed between the last two Solar Cycles 23 and 24, as well as the ascending, the maximum, and part of the descending phases of the current Solar Cycle 24. The main properties of solar-wind high-speed streams, such as their maximum velocity, their duration, and their possible sources are analyzed in detail. We discuss the relative importance of all those parameters of high-speed solar wind streams and especially of their sources in terms of the different phases of the current cycle. We carry out a comparison between the characteristic parameters of high-speed solar wind streams in the present solar cycle with those of previous solar cycles to understand the dependence of their long-term variation on the cycle phase. Moreover, the present study investigates the varied phenomenology related to the magnetic interactions between these streams and the Earth’s magnetosphere. These interactions can initiate geomagnetic disturbances resulting in geomagnetic storms at Earth that may have impact on technology and endanger human activity and health.     

Numerical simulations of high-speed solar wind streams within 1 AU and their signatures at 1 AU

A parametric study of the evolution within, and signatures at, 1 AU of high-speed streams is performed with the use of a MHD, 21/2-D, time-dependent model. This study is an extension of an earlier one by Smith and Dryer (1990) who examined the ecliptic plane consequences of relatively short-duration, energetic solar disturbances. The present study examines both the erupting and corotating parts of long-duration, high-speed streams characteristic of coronal hole flows. By examining the variation of the simulated plasma velocity, density, temperature, and magnetic field at 1 AU, as well as the location of the solar coronal hole sources relative to the observer at 1 AU, we are able to provide some insight into the identification of the solar sources of interplanetary disturbances. We present and discuss two definitions for angle locating the solar source of interplanetary disturbances at 1 AU.We apply our results to the suggestion by Hewish (1988) that low-latitude coronal holes are suitably positioned to be the sources of major geomagnetic storms when the holes are in the eastern half of the solar hemisphere at the time of the commencement of the storm. Our results indicate that, for these cases, the streams emanating from within the hole must be very fast, greater than 1000 km s^–1, or very wide, greater than 60°, at the inner boundary of 18 solar radii in our simulation.     

Long-Term Modulation of Galactic Cosmic Rays in the Heliosphere by Curvature of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field

Long-term changes of the GCR intensity in the heliosphere were analysed making use of records of cosmogenic isotopes abundances (¹⁰Be and ¹⁴C) in natural archives and neutron monitor data. These data contain information about short-term, 11-year, 22-year, centennial and two-centennial cycles of solar activity. A mechanism to explain the long-term modulation of GCR due to changes in the curvature of the interplanetary magnetic field, resulting from changes in solar activity, is suggested.     

High-Speed Solar Wind Streams during 1996 – 2007: Sources,Statistical Distribution,and Plasma/Field Properties

We present a catalog of high-speed streams, along with their solar sources for solar cycle 23. We study their distribution during different years and different phases of solar cycle after classifying them into different groups based on their source(s), duration, and speed. We also study the average plasma/field properties of streams after dividing them into suitable groups on the basis of their source(s), duration and speed. It is expected that the catalog and statistical results presented in this work will further stimulate the space weather and solar-terrestrial studies involving high-speed streams.     

The 27-Day Cosmic Ray Intensity Variations During Solar Minimum 23/24

We have studied the 27-day variations and their harmonics in Galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensity, solar wind velocity, and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) components during the recent prolonged solar minimum 23/24. The time evolution of the quasi-periodicity in these parameters connected with the Sun’s rotation reveals that the synodic period of these variations is ≈?26?–?27 days and is stable. This means that the changes in the solar wind speed and the IMF are related to the Sun’s near-equatorial regions in considering the differential rotation of the Sun. However, the solar wind parameters observed near the Earth’s orbit provide only the conditions in the limited local vicinity of the equatorial region in the heliosphere (within ±?7^° in latitude). We also demonstrate that the observed period of the GCR intensity connected with the Sun’s rotation increased up to ≈?33?–?36 days in 2009. This means that the process that drives the 27-day GCR intensity variations takes place not only in the limited local surroundings of the equatorial region but in the global 3-D space of the heliosphere, covering also higher latitude regions. A relatively long period (≈?34 days) found for 2009 in the GCR intensity gives possible evidence of the onset of cycle 24 due to active regions at higher latitudes and rotating slowly because of the Sun’s differential rotation. We also discuss the effect of differential rotation on the theoretical model of the 27-day GCR intensity variations.     

Transient perturbations and their effects in the heliosphere, the geo-magnetosphere, and the Earth’s atmosphere: Space weather perspective

We discuss the effects of certain dynamic features of space environment in the heliosphere, the geo-magnetosphere, and the earth’s atmosphere. In particular, transient perturbations in solar wind plasma, interplanetary magnetic field, and energetic charged particle (cosmic ray) fluxes near 1 AU in the heliosphere have been discussed. Transient variations in magnetic activity in geo-magnetosphere and solar modulation effects in the heliosphere have also been studied. Emphasis is on certain features of transient perturbations related to space weather effects. Relationships between geomagnetic storms and transient modulations in cosmic ray intensity (Forbush decreases), especially those caused by shock-associated interplanetary disturbances, have been studied in detail. We have analysed the cosmic ray, geomagnetic and interplanetary plasma/field data to understand the physical mechanisms of two phenomena namely, Forbush decrease and geomagnetic storms, and to search for precursors to Forbush decrease (and geomagnetic storms) that can be used as a signature to forecast space weather. It is shown that the use of cosmic ray records has practical application for space weather predictions. Enhanced diurnal anisotropy and intensity deficit of cosmic rays have been identified as precursors to Forbush decreases in cosmic ray intensity. It is found that precursor to smaller (less than 5%) amplitude Forbush decrease due to weaker interplanetary shock is enhanced diurnal anisotropy. However, larger amplitude (greater than 5%) Forbush decrease due to stronger interplanetary shock shows loss cone type intensity deficit as precursor in ground based intensity record. These precursors can be used as inputs for space weather forecast.     

On the relationship of cosmic ray intensity with solar,interplanetary, and geophysical parameters

The flux rate of cosmic rays incident on the Earth’s upper atmosphere is modulated by the solar wind and the Earth’s magnetic field. The amount of solar wind is not constant due to changes in solar activity in each solar cycle, and hence the level of cosmic ray modulation varies with solar activity. In this context, we have investigated the variability and the relationship of cosmic ray intensity with solar, interplanetary, and geophysical parameters from January 1982 through December 2008. Simultaneous observations have been made to quantify the exact relationship between the cosmic ray intensity and those parameters during the solar maxima and minima, respectively. It is found that the stronger the interplanetary magnetic field, solar wind plasma velocity, and solar wind plasma temperature, the weaker the cosmic ray intensity. Hence, the lowest cosmic ray intensity has good correlations with simultaneous solar parameters, while the highest cosmic ray intensity does not. Our results show that higher solar activity is responsible for a higher geomagnetic effect and vice versa.     

Cycling Changes in the Amplitudes of the 27-Day Variation of the Galactic Cosmic Ray Intensity

We study quasi-periodical changes in the amplitudes of the 27-day variation of the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensity, and the parameters of solar wind and solar activity. We have recently found quasi-periodicity of three to four Carrington rotation periods (3?–?4 CRP) in the amplitudes of the 27-day variation of the GCR intensity (Gil and Alania in J. Atmos. Solar-Terr. Phys. 73, 294, 2011). A similar recurrence is recognized in parameters of solar activity (sunspot number, solar radio flux) and solar wind (components of the interplanetary magnetic field, solar wind velocity). We believe that the 3?–?4 CRP periodicity, among other periodicities, observed in the amplitudes of the 27-day variation of the GCR intensity is caused by a specific cycling structure of the Sun’s magnetic field, which may originate from the turbulent nature of the solar dynamo.     

Cosmic ray modulation: Effects of high speed solar wind streams

Based on their source of origin, high speed streams detected in the solar wind plasma have been classified into two classes, coronal hole and solar flare associated streams. Observed heliospheric plasma and field parameters of these streams such as speed, field strength and its variance have been utilized in a systematic manner in order to see their effects in cosmic ray modulation. It is found that flare associated streams are much more effective in modulation than streams from coronal holes. Inspite of the possibility that solar wind structures during two types of streams might be different, the field variance appears to be the most cricial parameter responsible for this difference in their effectiveness in modulation.     

Solar modulation of galactic cosmic-ray intensity as seen by neutron monitors during 1990–1999 – I. Rigidity Dependence and Correlations with Solar Activity Parameters

We analyze the evolution of cosmic ray intensity detected by six neutron monitors located at high altitude from 1990 to 1999, that includes most of solar cycle 22 and the start of cycle 23. This set of neutron monitors covers a wide range of geomagnetic cutoff rigidities. We discuss the most significant characteristics of the cosmic ray modulation during the period as: the extraordinary decreases produced by the events of the first half of 1991, the significant two step evolution of the recovery phase of solar cycle 22 and the start of cycle 23. We also determine the rigidity dependence of the different phases of the modulation cycle. Cosmic ray intensity correlations with several solar activity parameters as sunspots, microwave flux at 10.7 cm and solar flares and with the intensity of the interplanetary magnetic field are studied.     

Heliospheric Modulation of Galactic Cosmic Rays During Solar Cycle 23

Galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) encounter an outward-moving solar wind with cyclic magnetic-field fluctuation and turbulence. This causes convection and diffusion in the heliosphere. The GCR counts from the ground-based neutron monitor stations show intensity changes that are anti-correlated with the sunspot numbers with a lag of a few months. GCRs experience various types of modulation from different solar activity features and influence space weather and the terrestrial climate. In this work, we investigate certain aspects of the GCR modulation at low cut-off rigidity (R _c≈1 GV) in relation to some solar and geomagnetic indices for the entire solar cycle 23 (1996?–?2008). We separately study the GCR modulation during the ascending phase of cycle 23 including its maximum (1996?–?2002) and the descending phase including its minimum (2003?–?2008). We find that during the descending phase, the GCR recoveries are much faster than those of the solar parameters with negative time-lag. The results are discussed in light of modulation models, including drift effects and previous results.     

Diurnal variations of cosmic rays during a solar magnetic cycle

We have used data from five neutron monitor stations with primary rigidity (Rm) ranging from 16 GeV to 33 GeV to study the diurnal variations of cosmic rays over the period: 1965–1986 covering one 22-year solar magnetic cycle. The heliosphere interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and plasma hourly measurements taken near Earth orbit, by a variety of spacecraft, are also used to compare with the results of solar diurnal variation. The local time of maximum of solar diurnal diurnal variations displays a 22-year cycle due to the solar polar magnetic field polarities. In general, the annual mean of solar diurnal amplitudes, magnitude of IMF and plasma parameters are found to show separte solar cycle variations. Moreover, during the declining period of the twenty and twenty-ne solar cycles, large solar diurnal amplitudes are observed which associated with high values of solar wind speed, plasma temperature and interplanetary magnetic field magnitude B3.     

Preferred bartels days of high-speed plasma streams in the solar wind

An analysis of 346 high-speed solar wind streams observed at 1 AU during 1964–75 is presented. The analysis shows that a two-sector structure was the dominant feature of the interplanetary magnetic field associated with the high-speed solar wind plasma. The high-speed streams occurred at preferred Bartels days: Positive polarity streams were most frequent near Bartels day 4, negative polarity streams were most frequent near Bartels day 17. Since the solar wind carries with it the photospheric magnetic polarity of the solar source region, the observed distribution of Bartels days must indicate a fundamental property of the distribution of the solar sources of high-speed plasma streams. The observations are explained in terms of a tilted dipole model of the solar-interplanetary field.Proceedings of the 14th ESLAB Symposium on Physics of Solar Variations, 16–19 September 1980, Scheveningen, The Netherlands.