珠江流域感潮河段洪潮遭遇联合风险分析

在防洪潮规划中洪潮遭遇分析尤为重要。以西、北江三角洲作为珠江流域感潮区域的典型区，运用Archimedean Copula函数构建了年最大洪水和相应48h内最大潮位、年最大潮位和相应48h内最大洪水两组联合分布，通过联合风险概率模型，计算了洪潮组合的风险概率。结果表明：较高重现期洪水遭遇较低重现期的潮位、较高重现期潮位遭遇较低重现期的洪水风险概率会更大。基于Copula函数的洪潮联合分布拟合较好，组合风险分析可靠，为珠江流域感潮河段防洪、潮工程的设计风险计算提供理论参考。     

滨海城市雨潮遭遇联合分布模拟与设计

滨海城市河流常常遭受暴雨和潮汐顶托双重影响导致洪涝灾害,需要重视雨潮遭遇联合分布模拟与设计。以深圳市西乡河为例,采用年最大值法（AM）和超定量序列法（POT）两种选样方法,基于Copula方法模拟24 h暴雨遭遇日高潮位的联合分布特征,对比雨潮遭遇传统重现期和二次重现期差异,根据同频法和权函数法反推计算雨潮设计组合值。结果表明:雨潮边缘分布最优模型均为广义正态分布（GNO）,不同选样方法雨量分布模型参数差异明显。雨潮之间呈现较弱的正相依性,Archimedean Copulas均能较好地模拟雨潮遭遇联合分布特征,最优模型为Gumbel-Hougaard Copula。同频法反推雨潮设计组合值,二次重现期雨量和潮位均大于传统联合重现期,POT选样的潮位大于AM。权函数法选出的雨潮设计组合值,偏重于较高的潮位,雨量设计值较小。当明确了选样方法、联合分布模型和重现期类型,给定联合重现期的雨潮设计组合值是个此消彼长的过程,若选择较大的雨量设计值,则潮位值变小,反之亦然。从防洪潮设计安全角度考虑,POT选样方法及二次重现期设计更为安全。     

深圳河感潮河段洪水特性变化及成因分析

感潮河道洪水特性受陆海双相复杂动力的共同影响。选取深圳和香港的界河——深圳河,基于实测降雨、流量及水位资料,分析潮动力作用下2018年“0829”典型洪水的变化过程,并与流量量级和洪潮遭遇过程相当的2008年6月洪水进行对比,发现“0829”洪水期间河道中上部水位升高约1.4m,河道防洪压力增大。分析发现河道淤积、河道阻力增大和河口平均潮位抬升是导致“0829”洪水水位壅高的主要原因。     

基于潮流数值模拟的设计潮位推算方法

针对一些拟建工程位于潮位不易观测地区的情况,提出了一种设计潮位的推算方法。首先,通过潮流数值计算,获得拟建工程地点一个月以上的短期潮位过程;其次,与临近的、具有长期实测资料的港口或验潮站的潮位进行同步相关分析,建立回归方程;最后,采用《海港水文规范》中的方法推算港口或验潮站的设计潮位,并将其由回归方程换算至拟建工程地点。通过算例的计算分析,表明本文方法是合理的、可行的。     

基于Copula函数的感潮河段洪潮遭遇组合风险分析研究

感潮河段的水位受上游河道洪水与下游河口潮位共同影响,故其河段整治规划中洪潮遭遇分析尤为重要。以瓯江感潮河段为研究区,提出从实测洪潮遭遇数据的频率结构特性出发,选取对上尾部更敏感的Gumbel Copula函数建立洪水和潮位的联合分布,推求各种洪潮组合的重现期,进而建立风险模型。从治涝风险、同现风险和组合风险多角度评估设计组合值的合理性。结果表明:基于Gumbel Copula函数构建的联合分布能够较好的反映瓯江感潮河段的洪潮组合特性。瓯江感潮河段部分现役工程所采用的20a一遇的设计洪水与较不利潮位(5.8m)这一设计组合型的同现重现期为29a,同现风险率为3.46%、组合风险率为11.52%、治涝风险率为15.94%,其防洪涝能力稍显不足。同时基于Copula函数所建立的风险模型集能够较好地对感潮河段防洪设计标准进行风险评估,为感潮河段整治规划提供决策支持。     

钱塘江河口杭州湾风暴潮溢流计算方法研究

建立钱塘江河口杭州湾风暴潮模型,探讨风暴潮出现溢流的计算方法。将可能出现溢流的沿海堤防以及海水侵入的陆地均依照高程概化为计算区域,采用糙率控制潮水的溢流流量,以模型的堤顶单宽流量和根据计算潮位采用宽顶堰公式换算流量的一致性来率定糙率值。在此基础上模拟了风暴潮漫溢堤防的过程,结果表明风暴潮出现溢流后,钱塘江河口杭州湾之间两岸大片的陆地存在淹没风险,沿程潮位由于溢流出现不同程度的降低响应。     

浅析历史洪水在设计洪水中的计算误差

针对历史洪水在设计洪水计算中的误差,在分析乌鲁木齐河历史洪水及重现期的基础上,依据乌鲁木齐河英雄桥水文站洪水调查资料,通过实测洪水系列加入历史洪水的个数及加入不同重现期的历史洪水,采用数理统计和频率计算的方法对历史洪水的作用进行分析。历史洪水的个数、历史洪水值大小及重现期对设计洪水有一定的误差,其误差对设计洪水成果精度有影响。历史洪水值的误差对设计洪水的影响比历史洪水重现期误差的影响要大得多。     

渤海湾西部风暴潮漫滩数值模拟

基于ROMS海洋模式,结合近年的地质实测资料,建立了渤海湾西部地区风暴潮漫滩的数值模型。对模型进行验证后,对渤海湾西部区域重现期为50a、100a、200a及500a的风暴潮漫滩进行了数值模拟,分析了不同重现期风暴潮漫滩发展的动态过程及最大漫滩淹水范围。结果表明,数值模型基本能反映风暴潮的增水趋势,能够模拟风暴潮漫滩发生发展的动态过程。随着风暴潮强度的增加,渤海湾西部地区淹水范围具有从东海岸向西部内陆区域扩展的趋势。通过曲线拟合发现,风暴潮最大漫滩面积比值与高水位之间基本呈线性关系。     

大洋河流域设计洪水及河口起点水位计算方法研究

根据大洋河流域规划设计,通过水文分析,计算大洋河河道各频率洪峰流量、分析洪水特性,由于邻近大洋河口的大鹿岛站为临时站,潮水位资料匮乏,因而把大东港站潮位资料作为本次潮水位设计的理论依据,同时计算不同频率潮位,将大鹿岛站作为大洋河河口的设计潮位,计算结果可知:发生20年和100年一遇洪水时,对应起点水位分别为4.22 m和4.51 m。计算结果可供相关规划设计部门参考。     

基于联合分布的珠江口设计潮位过程线方法研究

针对同倍比方法与同频率方法推求设计潮位过程线中的局限性,采用4种边际分布函数对珠江口年最高潮位与年最大潮差序列进行拟合的基础上,选取4种不同的二维Archimedean Copula函数建立珠江口年最高潮位与年最大潮差的联合分布,并分析了高潮位重现期与潮位过程同现重现期的线性关系。结果表明:高潮位与潮差的同现重现期总是大于相应边际分布的重现期,并且随着边际分布重现期的增大,同现重现期增幅也越大,说明较高重现期的高潮位与潮差同时发生的可能性很小;基于高潮位重现期与潮位过程同现重现期的线性关系,采用基于联合分布的方法推求珠江口潮位过程线,推求结果较同频率法更为合理。     

长江口可能最高潮位研究

以长江口高桥站为研究对象,根据历史资料,用经验分析和统计结合起来的方法,建立风暴潮增水模式,依据流体动力学原理建立二维风暴潮天文潮综合水位模式,尔后以极值气象因子为基础,利用因子组合法及台风位移法分别设计极端台风模型,推算高桥站最大增水及可能最高潮位,并以水文统计频率分析成果作为研究确定长江口ＰＭＴ的佐证。     

含盐风暴潮溃堤洪水数值模拟及风险分析

为了研究三角洲河口风暴潮溃堤时的盐水运动规律,建立一、二维耦合的盐度数学模型对风暴潮溃堤时的盐水运动进行模拟。模型考虑洪泛区建筑物对盐水运动的影响以及溃口的渐变发展过程。用2008年多个测站的实测数据对河网模型的潮位和盐度计算结果进行了验证。将模型应用于珠江三角洲河网某近海溃口风暴潮溃堤的盐水运动模拟,并绘制了最大盐度等值面图。计算结果表明,该溃口大部分区域的溃堤积水盐度超过了4psu,因此,溃堤洪水的高盐度积水影响不容忽视。通过比较“溃堤”和“不溃堤”两种情况下的河网盐度计算结果,发现上游河道的溃堤分流增大了河道的纳潮量,促使涨潮量增大,增大了下游河网的咸潮上溯风险,减弱了上游来流对咸潮的压制效果。     

河道采沙对珠江三角洲水情及水环境影响分析

珠江三角洲水系属于典型的潮汐河网,水流同时受到地表径流及沿海潮位的双重影响。自20世纪80年代以来,该水系大规模的人工挖沙导致了水文条件、河床演变自然进程的较大变化。根据潮汐河网的水力特性,建立了用于模拟水位、流量时空变化的一维河网水动力数学模型,并根据由灰色模型预测的因挖沙引起的未来年份的河床演变情况,分别预测分析了不同水平年在丰水期、枯水期两种代表水情下的水系水位、流量变化情况。并对由此可能产生的对环境的影响进行了初步分析。     

长江口动量系数分布特征研究

基于长江口1996年3月和9月共23个测点实测水流资料,计算了动量系数的时空变化,并应用线性回归法,计算了特征时间段内的平均动量系数,获得了长江口动量系数时空分布的基本特征:时间上,涨潮大于落潮,洪季大于枯季,而大、中、小潮则依次递增;空间上,自口外向口内,北支呈逐渐增大,而南支呈先增大后减小、口门附近最大的基本特征.由动量系数分析了潮流的摩阻特性,为数值模拟合理选取曼宁系数提供参考.     

Suspended particulate matter and dynamics of the Mfolozi estuary,Kwazulu-Natal: Implications for environmental management

 The Mfolozi Estuary on the KwaZulu-Natal coast of South Africa is the most turbid estuary in Natal due to poor catchment management, leading to large quantities of suspended particulate matter (SPM) entering the estuary from the Mfolozi River. This paper quantities some of the solute and sediment dynamics in the Mfolozi Estuary where the main documented environmental concern is the periodic input of SPM from the Mfolozi Estuary to the St. Lucia system, causing reduction of light penetration and endangering biological productivity in this important nature reserve. Synoptic water level results have allowed reach mean bed shear stresses and velocities to be calculated for an observed neap tidal cycle. Results indicate that ebb velocities dominate the sediment transport processes in the estuary when fluvial input in the Mfolozi River is of the order of 15–20 m³ s^–1. Observed and predicted flood tide velocities are too low (<0.35 m s^–1) to suspend and transport significant amounts of SPM. Observed results indicate that although the SPM load entering the estuary is dominantly from the Mfolozi River, the Msunduzi River flow plays a major role in the composition of the estuary's salinity and velocity fields. It is calculated that the Mfolozi Estuary would fill with sediment in 1.3 years if it was cut off from the sea. The major fluvial flood events help maintain the estuary by periodically pushing sediment seawards (spit progrades seawards 5 m yr^–1) and scouring and maintaining the main flow channel in the estuary. During low fluvial flow conditions, tidal flow velocities will become the dominant control on sediment transport in the estuary. Interchange of SPM between the St. Lucia and Mfolozi estuaries under present conditions is complicated by the strong transverse velocity shear between the two systems at their combined mouth. This is creating a salinity-maintained axial convergence front that suppresses mixing of solutes and SPM between the systems for up to 10 h of the tidal cycle during observed conditions. Received: 22 May 1995 · Accepted: 31 July 1995     

Baseline and distribution of organic pollutants and heavy metals in tidal creek sediments after Hurricane Sandy in the Meadowlands of New Jersey

The relatively low cost of lands along with a privileged location near an urban center attracted industry to the Meadowlands of New Jersey and the absence of regulations resulted in vast amounts of industrial waste emitted into the air and dumped to nearby estuaries and marshlands. Hurricane Sandy created an unprecedented sea surge that overtopped berms and tide gates and extensively flooded approximately 22.8 km² of a low lying basin that includes Berry’s Creek, a tributary to the Hackensack River and well known for its legacy of high levels of contamination. The sea surge connected Berry’s Creek with eastern creeks that flow into the Hackensack River for several tidal cycles. The objectives of this study were to establish a baseline for organic pollutants and heavy metals post Superstorm Sandy, determine whether contaminants from highly contaminated areas moved to the eastern creeks during the surge and measure contaminant gradients around tide gates. Cadmium, mercury and chromium were the most abundant contaminants in sediments, and pollutants responsible for the highest ecological risk were Hg and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). Concentrations of PCBs were higher in the western creeks and contrary to metals did not show concentration gradients from either side of tide gates. Massive export of contaminants from western to eastern creeks due to the surge was not apparent. The abundance of heavy metals in the vicinity of tide gates shows that they play a role in their distribution across the estuary.     

Impact of Sea-level Rise and Storm Surges on a Coastal Community

A technique to evaluate the risk of storm tides (the combination of a storm surge and tide) under present and enhanced greenhouse conditions has been applied to Cairns on the north-eastern Australian coast. The technique combines a statistical model for cyclone occurrence with a state-of-the-art storm surge inundation model and involves the random generation of a large number of storm tide simulations. The set of simulations constitutes a synthetic record of extreme sea-level events that can be analysed to produce storm tide return periods. The use of a dynamic storm surge model with overland flooding capability means that the spatial extent of flooding is also implicitly modelled. The technique has the advantage that it can readily be modified to include projected changes to cyclone behaviour due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. Sea-level heights in the current climate for return periods of 50, 100, 500 and 1000 years have been determined to be 2.0 m, 2.3 m, 3.0 m and 3.4 m respectively. In an enhanced greenhouse climate (around 2050), projected increases in cyclone intensity and mean sea-level see these heights increase to 2.4 m, 2.8 m, 3.8 m and 4.2 m respectively. The average area inundated by events with a return period greater than 100 years is found to more than double under enhanced greenhouse conditions.