Earthquake Activity Features Before Earthquakes with Ms ≥ 7.0 in the Central-Northern QinghaiXizang（Tibet） Block

INTRODUCTION Theseismicquiescencebeforelargeearthquakesisoneoftheprecursorsthatattractstheattention ofseismologistsworldwide.Mogi(1969)investigatedthisphenomenonfirst.Ohtake(1981),Wyss(1988)andSongJungao,etal.(1994)proceededwithstudiesinthisarea.Inthispap…     

The Time-Space Features of Ms≥6.0 Earthquakes Subsequent to Ms≥7.0 Earthquakes in the Mainland of China

In this paper,the time-space features of Ms≥6.0 strong earthquakes that have occurred on the Chinese mainland since the beginning of this century were analyzed; the effect of Ms≥7.0 large shocks in mitigating Ms≥6.0 strong earthquakes subsequent to them vas studied both temporally and spatially; and the accumulative probabilities for the occurrence of Ms≥6.0 strong earthquakes subsequent to Ms≥7.0 large shocks were calculated.The results seem to imply that the effect of Ms≥7.0 large shocks in mitigating subsequent strong events is relatively obvious within certain time-space ranges.This is because the strain energy accumulated over a long time in the region around the source has been mostly released through the fracture produced by the large shock,the possibility for another large fracture to occur again in the same region within a certain period of time has been greatly reduced and therefore the probability for subsequent strong earthquakes to occur in that region is very low.These results can be     

Study on Statistical Features About Weak Earthquake Activity Before Moderately Strong Earthquakes in the Middle Northern Part of the Qinghai-Xizang （Tibet） Block

In regards to the earthquakes recording M ≥ 5.0 that occurred in middle northern part of the Qinghai-Xizang （Tibet） Block from 1970 - 2003, in this study we describe the temporal and spatial centralization features of the weak earthquakes and the enhancement and anomalous quiescence of their seismic activity before main shocks through 4 parameters, which are basically not correlated： earthquake time centralization degree parameter Ct, earthquake space centralization degree parameter Cd, η value and weak earthquake frequency and so on. On the basis of calculation results, it has been seen that before earthquakes with M ≥ 5.0 took place in the middle northern part of the Qinghal-Xizang （Tibet） Block, the frequency of weak earthquakes often shows ascent and drop, their strength shows an obvious enhancement and the centralization distribution with time and space is evident.     

Study on the Anomaly of Small Earthquake Activity Before Moderate-strong Earthquake in the Northeast Margin of the Qinghai- Xizang （Tibet） Block

26 earthquakes with MS ≥5. 0 have been recorded in the northeast margin of the Qinghai- Xizang (Tibet) block since 1980,22 of which were relatively independent of other moderate- strong earthquakes. Research on the increase of small earthquake activity before the 22 moderate-strong earthquakes has indicated that small earthquake activity was enhanced before 17 of the moderate-strong earthquakes. Though the increased seismicity is a common phenomenon in the northeast margin of the Qinghai-Xizang ( Tibet ) block,we have difficulty in predicting the moderate-strong earthquakes by this phenomenon. In order to predict the moderate-strong earthquakes through the increased seismicity of small earthquakes,this paper attempts to propose a new method, which calculates small earthquake frequency through the change of distribution pattern of small earthquakes, based on the characteristics of small earthquake activity in the northeastern Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) block,and then make primary applications. The result shows that we are able to obtain obvious anomalies in the frequency of small earthquakes before moderate strong earthquakes through the new method,with little spatial range effect on the amplitude of this small earthquake frequency anomaly. We can obtain mid to short-term anomaly indices for moderate-strong earthquakes in the northeast margin of the Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) block.     

Characteristics of the Earth-Resistivity Change Before the Jingtai Earthquake with Ms=6.2

The earth-resistivity change recorded before the Jingtai earthquake(EQ).with Ms=6.2 at 11 geoelectric stations within 400 km of the EQ was discussed in this paper,and the following conclusions are made:1) imminent variations of earth-resistivity prior to the EQ were recorded at the Wuwei,Dingxi and Shandan stations immediately before the EQ;2) the recordability of the imminent variations at a station was related to the active deep faults and the strongly active faults inside and outside the focal zone,and to the causative stress field as well;3) the temporal and spatial characteristics of the earth-resistivity change immediately before the EQ showed that the EQ was probably induced by the NNW direction stress field(or by another one of similar direction)which was greatly increased during a short period immediately before the EQ and that the northern wall of the focal fault played a major role in the process of the EQ preparation and occurrence of the EQ.     

Relocation of the Ms≥2.0 Earthquakes in the Northern Tianshan Region, Xinjiang, Using the Double-Difference Earthquake Relocation Algorithm

We applied the double-difference earthquake relocation algorithm to 1348 earthquakes with M_S≥2.0 that occurred in the northern Tianshan region, Xinjiang, from April 1988 to June 2003, using a total of 28701 P- and S-wave arrival times recorded by 32 seismic stations in Xinjiang. Aiming to obtain most of these M_S≥2.0 earthquakes relocations, and considering the requirements of the DD method and the condition of data, we added the travel time data of another 437 earthquakes with 1.5≤M_S<2.0. Finally, we obtained the relocation results for 1253 earthquakes with M_S≥2.0, which account for 93% of all the 1348 earthquakes with M_S≥2.0 and includes all the M_S≥3.0 earthquakes. The reason for not relocating the 95 earthquakes with 2.0≤M_S<3.0 is analyzed in the paper. After relocation, the RMS residual decreased from 0.83s to 0.14s, the average error is 0.993 km in E-W direction, 1.10 km in N-S direction, and 1.33 km in vertical direction. The hypocenter depths are more convergent than before and distributed from 5 km to 35 km, with 94% being from 5km to 35 km, 68.2% from 10 km to 25 km. The average hypocenter depth is 19 km.     

Relocation of the Ms≥2.0 Earthquakes in the Northern Tianshan Region, Xinjiang, Using the Double-Difference Earthquake Relocation Algorithm

We applied the double-difference earthquake relocation algorithm to 1348 earthquakes with M_S≥2.0 that occurred in the northern Tianshan region, Xinjiang, from April 1988 to June 2003, using a total of 28701 P- and S-wave arrival times recorded by 32 seismic stations in Xinjiang. Aiming to obtain most of these M_S≥2.0 earthquakes relocations, and considering the requirements of the DD method and the condition of data, we added the travel time data of another 437 earthquakes with 1.5≤M_S<2.0. Finally, we obtained the relocation results for 1253 earthquakes with M_S≥2.0, which account for 93% of all the 1348 earthquakes with M_S≥2.0 and includes all the M_S≥3.0 earthquakes. The reason for not relocating the 95 earthquakes with 2.0≤M_S<3.0 is analyzed in the paper. After relocation, the RMS residual decreased from 0.83s to 0.14s, the average error is 0.993 km in E-W direction, 1.10 km in N-S direction, and 1.33 km in vertical direction. The hypocenter depths are more convergent than before and distributed from 5 km to 35 km, with 94% being from 5km to 35 km, 68.2% from 10 km to 25 km. The average hypocenter depth is 19 km.     

Time Series Analysis on the Ratio for Pixels with Abnormal Brightness Temperature Increase and Its Variation Before Some Earthquakes with Ms ≥ 5.0 in the Taiwan Area

In the study of the application of MODIS satellite remote sensing data to earthquake prediction, the paper puts forward for the first time a quantitative method to estimate the ratio for the pixels with abnormal brightness temperature (BT) increase and a preliminary scheme for cloud removal. The principle is that, firstly, the cloudless data observed by the same satellite at the same period of time but in different days (usually 1 day to 3 days) are mosaiced to get high ratio of clear sky, and then the BT variation curve and mean square difference (MSD) of each pixel are calculated with the data from the covered area to determine daily whether the BT data of the day is normal or not at a certain pixel by using double the MSD as the criterion. The ratio for the pixels with abnormal BT increase can be calculated by dividing the total number of abnormal pixels with the total pixels of the whole area. Analysis on a series of recent earthquakes in the Taiwan area shows that the ratio for pixels with abnormal BT increase, which normally undulates around zero, has a sudden enhancement 1 day to 20 days before medium-strong earthquakes. It is expected that a new method for identifying earthquake auspice could be found through special studies in regions with frequent seismic activity by analyzing the change of the ratio for the pixels with abnormal BT increase from MODIS satellite remote sensing infrared (IR) information from which the effect of clouds has been removed to a certain extent.     

Time Series Analysis on the Ratio for Pixels with Abnormal Brightness Temperature Increase and Its Variation Before Some Earthquakes with Ms ≥ 5.0 in the Taiwan Area

In the study of the application of MODIS satellite remote sensing data to earthquake prediction, the paper puts forward for the first time a quantitative method to estimate the ratio for the pixels with abnormal brightness temperature (BT) increase and a preliminary scheme for cloud removal. The principle is that, firstly, the cloudless data observed by the same satellite at the same period of time but in different days (usually 1 day to 3 days) are mosaiced to get high ratio of clear sky, and then the BT variation curve and mean square difference (MSD) of each pixel are calculated with the data from the covered area to determine daily whether the BT data of the day is normal or not at a certain pixel by using double the MSD as the criterion. The ratio for the pixels with abnormal BT increase can be calculated by dividing the total number of abnormal pixels with the total pixels of the whole area. Analysis on a series of recent earthquakes in the Taiwan area shows that the ratio for pixels with abnormal BT increase, which normally undulates around zero, has a sudden enhancement 1 day to 20 days before medium-strong earthquakes. It is expected that a new method for identifying earthquake auspice could be found through special studies in regions with frequent seismic activity by analyzing the change of the ratio for the pixels with abnormal BT increase from MODIS satellite remote sensing infrared (IR) information from which the effect of clouds has been removed to a certain extent.     

Correlated Features of Horizontal Movement-Deformation on the North and East Margins of the Qinghai-Xizang Block before the Kunlun Earthquake with Ms=8.1

INTRODUCTIONThe Qinghai_Xizang(Tibet)blockis praised as a“piston”in the earth dynamics systemof theChinese mainland,andis regarded asthe hotspot in geoscience study all along.The occurrence of theMS8·1strong earthquake on November14,2001,inside the Qin…     

The Relationship Between Strong Earthquake Activity of Ms≥ 7.0 on the Chinese Mainland and the West Kunlun-A＇nye^maqe^n Secondary Arcuate Tectonic Zone

The active and quiet phenomenon of moderate strong earthquakes one year before the earthquakes with Ms ≥ 7.0, the spatial distribution characteristics of the solid tide modulating and triggering earthquakes and the strong earthquake mechanisms on the Chinese continent have been studied. The secondary arcuate tectonic zone composed of the west Kunlun-A‘nye^maqe^n faults is believed to be a very important boundary to characterize strong earthquake activity of Ms ≥ 7.0 on the Chinese continent, that is, a boundary between the seismically active region and the quiet region of moderately strong earthquakes one year before earthquakes with Ms ≥ 7.0, and a boundary of the spatial distributions between the solid tidemodulating strong earthquakes ( Ms ≥ 7.0) and the non-modulating ones. It might be related with the characteristics of spatial distribution of focal mechanism solutions of strong earthquakes on the Chinese Continent.     

Seismogenic Structure of the 1411 Southern Damxung (Damdoi) Earthquake with M=8 in Tibet

The seismogenic structure of the 1411 southern Damxung(Damdoi)earthquake with M=8 in Tibet is discussed in detail in this paper.It is pointed out that the Nyainqentanglha southern pediment fault is the seismogenic one of the 1411 southern Damxung(Damdoi)earthquake with M=8,and the macroepicenter is located at the intersection of the extensional shear fault within Nasego-Garbogo pull-apart basin and the secondary strike-slipping fault with larger amplitude of neotectonic activity at the southwestern side of the basin.Besides,there is obvious anomaly of the geophysical fields in the seismic area,indicating that occurrence of 1411 southern Damxung(Damdoi)earthquake with M=8 was not only controlled by the superstructure but also the background of deep-seated structure.     

Analysis on the Regional Features of Coda Attenuation Before and After the 1992 Qina (M_S= 5.4, 5.1) Earthquakes in WYEPSA

Using the theoretical model of coda scattering from local earthquakes, we have studied the features of time-space variations of the attenuation rate β of coda amplitude and coda Qc-1 values before and after the Qina earthquakes (MS5.4 and MS5.1) in Dec. 1992 in West Yunnan Earthquake Prediction Study Area (WYEPSA). The study results show that the attenuation rate of coda amplitude has remarkable regional inhomogeneity in the near-field (△ <50 km) around the main shock: β = 0.0076 s-1 and Qc-1 = 0.0056 during the main shock while (3 = 0.0209 s-1 and Qc-1 = 0.0153 during the aftershock. The Qc-1 value shows an approximate 3-foid variation before and after the main shock. We have also obtained the regional averages of β = 0.0235 s-1 and Qc-1 = 0.0153, which show that the coda attenuation in surrounding areas (△ > 50 km) far away from the epicenter of the main shock did not change much before and after the main shock. The evolution of Qc-1 values of the main seismic sequence with time has passed throug     

Study on the Relationship Between Recent Crustal Deformation and the Temporal-Spatial Distribution of Strong Earthquakes ( Ms ≥6.0) in the Sichuan-Yunnan Region

Analysis of deformation data measured across the faults, regional vertical deformation data and GPS measurements in the Sichuan-Yunnan region made since the 1980s permitted us to conclude that the crustal deformation in the region during this period of time was relatively weak and caused the occurrence of earthquakes (Ms≥6.0), which were not distributed along the major boundary active faults in the region after the 1981 I)awu Ms 6.9 earthquake and that the seismic activity is characterized by quasi-clockwise migration. Thus, it follows that earthquake prediction research should be focused on the central part of the Sichuan-Yunnan region in the coming years. Finally, a concept of temporal division of the region into active blocks is suggested and the preliminary result of the division is given in the paper.     

The Relationship Between Strong Earthquake Activity of Ms ≥ 7.0 on the Chinese Mainland and the West Kunlun- A''nyêmaqên Secondary Arcuate Tectonic Zone

The active and quiet phenomenon of moderate strong earthquakes one year before the earthquakes with M S≥7.0, the spatial distribution characteristics of the solid tide modulating and triggering earthquakes and the strong earthquake mechanisms on the Chinese continent have been studied. The secondary arcuate tectonic zone composed of the west Kunlun-Anyêmaqên faults is believed to be a very important boundary to characterize strong earthquake activity of M S≥7.0 on the Chinese continent, that is, a boundary between the seismically active region and the quiet region of moderately strong earthquakes one year before earthquakes with M S≥7.0, and a boundary of the spatial distributions between the solid tide modulating strong earthquakes (M S≥7.0) and the non-modulating ones. It might be related with the characteristics of spatial distribution of focal mechanism solutions of strong earthquakes on the Chinese Continent.     

Study on Variation of Fitting Goodness of Relation Between Earthquake Frequency and Magnitude before Moderately Strong Earthquakes (Ms≥5.0)

In this paper,characteristics of spatial and temporal variation of linear fitting goodness before some moderately strong earthquakes(Ms≥5.0)in the eastern part of China(east of longitude 180)are studied according to the famous Gutenberg-Richter's relation expressed as lgN=a-bM,by using the moderate and small events that occurred in and around the source area.The results show that the linear goodness of fitting varies abnormally prior to these moderately strong earthquakes.In the early stage of the earthquake preparatory process,distribution of the energy released through small events in and around the source area is isostatic and the fitting goodness approximates 1,while the distribution of the energy turns to be isostatic before moderately strong earthquakes,leading to the obvious decrease of the linear goodness of fitting.This phenomenon could be a medium term anomaly and a medium term criterion for moderately strong earthquake prediction.     

The Characteristics of Seismic Activity Before the Devastating Earthquake with M_W9.0 Off the West Coast of Northern Sumatra

INTRODUCTIONMeasured bythe China Earthquake Networks Center ,a great earthquake withMS8·7 occurred offthe west coast of Northern Sumatra at Beijing Time 08 :58 :55·2 on December 26 , 2004·Themagnitude of the earthquake determined by the National Earthquake Information Center of USA(NEIC) wasMW9·0 .The earthquakeisthe biggestinthe world afterthe 1964 Prince WilliamSound,Alaska earthquake .The tsunami triggered bythe Sumatra earthquake brought about severe devastationfor ten …     

Application of the Load/Unload Response Ratio Theory to Predictions of Moderate Earthquakes (7.0>M≥6.0)

The variation in load/unload response ratio before some moderate earthquakes is analyzed based on the theory of the load/unload response ratio.The results show that the load-unload response ratio increases noticeably before moderate earthquakes,and there are three kinds of patterns in which the load/unload response ratio varies and the duration of noticeable increase in load/unload response ratio ranges from half a year to two years.     

The Characteristics of Seismic Activity Before the Devastating Earthquake with M wg. 0 Off the West Coast of Northern Sumatra

The characteristics of seismic activity in different time-spatial domain before the Mw9.0 earthquake were studied. The results are as follows ： ① The activity of the deep earthquakes in the north boundary zone of the Australian plate had been evidently strengthened since 1994, showing an increased frequency, magnitude and depth, especially in regards to the heterogeneous distribution of the earthquake depth （namely between 500km and 689km）. Meanwhile the shallow earthquakes of M ≥ 7.0 in the Sumatra island and its vicinity had been obviously strengthened too, and formed a strengthening area with a length of about 1000 km and width 300 km. ②The time distribution of global strong earthquakes with M≥ 7.0 shows that the character of anomalous seismic quiescence-activity one year before the Mw9.0 earthquake and during its active period, the strong earthquakes formed a seismic belt striking in NWW direction. At the same time, there is a seismic gap formed by earthquakes of M ≥ 5.0 in the epicenter and its neighboring region. ③ Two deep earthquakes of M ≥ 7.0 occurred in the west and in the east of the north boundary zone of the Australian plate half year ago. It is notable that one of them occurred in the Sumatra island where no deep earthquake with M ③ 6.0 has occurred in the past thirty years. ④The space distribution of moderate shocks occurring three days ago exhibited a NWW-strike seismic belt along the north boundary zone of the Australian plate. ⑤The activity of volcanoes distributed in the north boundary zone of the Australian plate had been strengthened in the past 4 years, especially several months before the occurrence of the Mw9.0 earthquake.