A rain on snow climatology and temporal analysis for the eastern United States

ABSTRACT

Rain-on-snow (ROS) has the potential to produce devastating floods by enhancing runoff from snowmelt. Although a common phenomenon across the eastern United States, little research has focused on ROS in this region. This study used a gridded observational snow dataset from 1960–2009 to establish a comprehensive seasonal climatology of ROS for this region. Additionally, different rain and snow thresholds were compared while considering temporal trends in ROS occurrence at four grid cells representing individual locations. Results show most ROS events occur in MAM (March-April-May). ROS events identified with rainfall >1 cm are more frequent near the east coast and events identified with >1 cm snow loss are more common in higher latitudes and/or elevations. Decreasing trends in DJF (December-January-February) ROS events were identified near the coastal areas, with increasing trends in the northern portion of the domain. Significant decreasing trends in MAM ROS are likewise present on a regional scale. Factors playing a role in snowpack depth and rainfall, such as movement of storm tracks in this region, should be considered with future work to discern mechanisms causing the changes in ROS frequency.     

Responses of Fragilarioid-dominated diatom assemblages in a small Arctic lake to Holocene climatic changes, Russell Island, Nunavut, Canada

We present a paleolimnological record spanning the Holocene from a small lake on Russell Island (Lake PW02), in the central Canadian Arctic Archipelago (74.07° N, 97.77° W, 182 m asl). Fragilarioid diatom types in the genera Pseudostaurosira, Staurosira and Staurosirella constitute >90% of valves in fossil samples. Using modern biogeographic data which specify the temperature optima of the Fragilarioid diatom taxa, we present new inferences about the timing of paleoclimatic changes in the central Arctic islands. The early Holocene was characterized by maximum values for sediment organic matter, and lower ratios of Staurosirella pinnata to Staurosira construens v. venter, suggesting warm summer air temperatures between about 9500−6500 cal year BP. Influxes of biogenic silica and diatom valves decreased following 4000 cal year BP, the sediment accumulation rate slowed and diatom taxa of the littoral zone diversified, suggesting cooler summers and more persistent lake ice. Variations in the species composition of the assemblages indicate paleoclimatic changes that are in broad agreement with other paleoenvironmental records from the Arctic including melt records from the Agassiz Ice Cap. Although autecological data remain incomplete for Fragilarioid taxa, our results indicate differences in these taxa in responses to paleoenvironmental change and underline the potential for the increased use of these taxa in paleoenvironmental reconstructions. The record from Lake PW02, as in other records from Arctic lakes with low algal diversity throughout the Holocene, shows a pronounced increase in diatom diversity since the 1920s, and diatom production since the 1970s far exceeds any recorded during the Holocene.     

Diatoms reveal complex spatial and temporal patterns of recent limnological change in West Greenland

Diatoms in sediment cores were analysed across a range of stratigraphic resolutions along a transect of 23 lakes spanning the ice-free margin of the west coast of Greenland (~67°N), to explore spatial and temporal patterns of recent (last ~150 years) environmental change in the region. These records display heterogeneous lake development trajectories over the last several centuries. Estimates of species composition turnover (beta-diversity) since 1850 AD are among the lowest for lakes in the Arctic, and are comparable to “unimpacted” reference lakes from temperate regions. Most of the change that occurred in West Greenland lakes pre-dates potential industrial anthropogenic effects, while post-1850 change is well within the natural range of variability for these systems. Nonetheless, a spatial pattern in core “top–bottom” changes is apparent across the transect: lakes in the arid interior of the region, adjacent to the ice sheet, and those with higher pH, register greater change than those in the more maritime climate of the coast. This suggests that climate plays an indirect role in the recent development of these lakes, and that recent anthropogenic forcing has not yet exceeded major ecological thresholds in this region.     

北江流域汛期降水结构变化特征

选取北江流域18雨量站1961—2017年逐日降水数据,采用降水发生率、降水贡献率指标,利用Mann-Kendall法进行变化趋势检验,分析流域汛期（3—8月）不同历时、不同等级降水结构的时空变化特征,结果表明：1）汛期降水发生率随降水历时的增加大致呈指数形式递减,其中1~4 d历时降水发生率合计69.88%;降水贡献率随降水历时的增加而先增加后减小、到≥10 d历时又显著增加。降水贡献率的空间差异主要表现为历时2~4 d与历时≥10 d在北部与东南部反向变化。2）降水发生率随降水等级的增加而减小,其中小雨发生率约占65%;西部大雨贡献率偏高;东南部暴雨贡献率偏高,其中清远、佛冈站约为39%。3）中短历时（1~6 d）降水发生率呈不显著下降趋势,而贡献率呈不显著上升趋势;长历时（≥7 d）降水发生率、贡献率均呈显著下降趋势。各等级降水变化趋势方面,小雨、中雨发生率、贡献率不显著下降,大雨、暴雨发生率、贡献率不显著上升。     

Spatio-temporal accuracy evaluation of MSWEP daily precipitation over the Huaihe River Basin,China: A comparison study with representative satellite- and reanalysis-based products

Multi-source weighted-ensemble precipitation (MSWEP) is one of the most popular merged global precipitation products with long-term spanning and high spatial resolution. While various studies have acknowledged its ability to accurately estimate precipitation in terms of temporal dynamics, its performance regarding spatial pattern and extreme rainfall is overlooked. To fill this knowledge gap, the daily precipitation of two versions of MSWEP (MSWEP V2.1 & V2.2) are compared with that of three representative satellite- and reanalysis-based products, namely the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM 3B42 V7), the climate prediction center morphing technique satellite-gauge merged product (CMORPH BLD), and the fifth-generation reanalysis product of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ERA5). The comparison is made according to the dense daily rainfall observations from 539 rain gauges over the Huaihe River Basin in China during 2006-2015. The results show that MSWEP V2.1, MSWEP V2.2 and CMORPH BLD have better performance on temporal accuracy of precipitation estimation, followed by ERA5 and TRMM 3B42 V7. MSWEPs yield the most even spatial distribution across the basin since it takes full advantage of the multi datasets. As the weighted-ensemble method is independently carried out on each grid in MSWEPs, the spatial distribution of local precipitation is changed by different source data, which results in that MSWEPs perform worse than CMORPH BLD in terms of the representation of precipitation spatial pattern. In addition, the capability of MSWEPs to describe the spatial structure in the rainy season is lower than that in the dry season. Strong precipitation (≥100 mm/d) events are better represented in TRMM 3B42 V7 products than in MSWEPs. Finally, based on the comparison results, we suggest to improve the merging algorithm of MSWEP by considering the precipitation spatial self-correlation and adjusting the merging weights based on the performance of the source datasets under different precipitation intensities.     

我国南方冬季异常低温和异常降水事件分析

统计分析1951 年以来1 月份以及1880 年以来冬季, 我国南方的异常低温与降水事件, 结果表明1 月异常低温(温度距平< -1σ) 有12 次, 降水异常偏多(降水距平> +1") 有10 次, 冷湿组合有3 次(1969、1993、2008); 冬季异常低温有29 次, 降水异常偏多有16 次, 冷湿组合有2 次(1886/87、1904/05)。利用NCEP/NCAR 再分析资料等, 采用合成方法分析异常低温与异常降水事件时大气环流特征, 结果表明有利于南方低温的环流特征是: 西伯利亚高压、东亚大槽及东亚急流异常偏强。有利于降水偏多的环流特征是: 东亚大槽偏弱; 200 hPa 上中东急流异常偏强、东亚急流偏弱; 东亚从对流层低层到中高层都有异常南风。当发生冷湿组合时, 低温主要是受到西伯利亚冷高压异常偏强的影响, 而降水主要受对流层850 hPa 至200 hPa 环流异常的作用。南方冬季水汽主要来自南支槽的西南气流和南海上空的转向 气流, 在降水偏多时有异常西南水汽输送距平。西伯利亚高压、欧亚遥相关型、西太平洋遥相关型、北极涛动4 个环流因子能解释南方1 月和冬季气温方差的47.2%和51.5%; 而中东 急流、东亚经向风、欧亚遥相关型则能共同解释南方1 月和冬季降水方差的49.4%和48.4%。 统计降水异常与ENSO 的对应关系表明, 当发生El Niño 事件时南方冬季降水偏多的概率较 大, 当发生La Niña 事件时, 降水偏少的概率较大, 而温度与ENSO 没有明显的统计相关。     

库姆塔格沙漠周边地区极端降水的时空变化特征

根据中国气象局信息中心提供的库姆塔格沙漠周边地区20个气象站1960-2014年逐日降水量资料,分析了库姆塔格沙漠周边地区1960-2014年极端降水的时空变化特征。结果表明：（1）库姆塔格沙漠周边地区极端降水主要集中在夏季且存在很大的地域性差异。（2）1960-2014年库姆塔格沙漠周边地区极端降水事件、年大雨频次、年大降水事件降水量和年降水量显著增加。（3）库姆塔格沙漠周边地区西部极端降水主要由频数很少的暴雨贡献,而东部极端降水则由暴雨和大雨共同贡献。（4）库姆塔格沙漠周边地区极端降水指数在夏季和年尺度的空间分布相似,且强降水指数在年和夏季尺度的空间分布均呈“鞍型场”型。     

Analysis of satellite and model datasets for variability and trends in Arctic snow extent and depth, 1948–2006

This study aims to investigate the spatiotemporal trends in snow depth (SD) and snow cover extent (SCE) for Arctic lands, excluding Greenland, for the period 1948–2006. The investigation not only delineates how the Arctic regions are manifesting significant annual trends in both SD and SCE, but also provides a comprehensive understanding of their historical context. To achieve these objectives, the combined resources of the hydrological and biogeochemical model (CHANGE), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) weekly SCE data, and in situ observations of SD were used. Most regions in the Arctic exhibited a significant negative trend in SD over the 59 years of study. The magnitude of the negative trend was stronger in North America than in Eurasia, where the decrease became more significant, starting from the late 1980s, coinciding well with the temperature rise during that time. During the same period, the warming temperature caused a prominent decrease in deeper SDs (i.e., >35 cm), so that the corresponding SCEs exhibited negative anomalies, with the greatest declines being observed at SDs > 55 cm. In contrast, the SCEs for SD ≤ 35 cm showed increased anomalies during the most recent two decades. The increased anomalies signify a sequential result induced by the decrease in the SCEs with deeper SDs, rather than the expansion of snow to snow-free regions. These changes resulted in a northward shift of the shallow SD line, which took place to a highly significant degree in North America. These results suggest that the Arctic SCE and SD will undergo more intense changes in response to the future climate warming.     

THE SPATIAL VARIABILITY OF RAINFALL pH IN THE WASHINGTON,D.C METROPOLITAN AREA *

This study evaluated the pH of rain water at 28 sample stations throughout the Washington, D.C. metropolitan area and determined the efficacy of utilizing a volunteer sampling network under a limited budget. Twelve rain events from September 1984 to August 1985 were analyzed. Despite the small number of events sampled, a strong relationship emerged between storm path, pH pattern, and average rainfall pH. A long, overland storm track yielded low rainfall pH and a simple spatial pattern of rain pH, while coastal storms produced relatively higher pH and a pattern with many areas of local variability.     

The positive effects of increased foot patrols on the incidence of liquor infractions and assaults in the Granville Street Entertainment Area of Vancouver British Columbia Canada

Entertainment districts have high crime rates. Offences peak on the weekend during the operating hours of on-premises drinking establishments. To determine if proactive policing from May 1st to August 31st reduced the spatial density (kernel) or annual frequency of liquor infractions and assaults in Vancouver British Columbia Granville St. Entertainment Area (GEA) we analyzed the spatial and temporal pattern of crime pre (2006) and post (2010, 2013) the policing intervention. Crime occurred most frequently between 1:00am and 3:00am. The frequency of weekend liquor infractions significantly (α < 0.05) decreased during the proactive policing period. The magnitude of the reduction was greater for liquor infractions than assaults. Liquor infractions decreased from 121 events in 2006, to 53 events in 2010, to 91 events in 2013. Assaults decreased from 36 events in 2006, to 34 events in 2010, to 28 events in 2013. Future patrolling should focus on north-east end of Granville St. during early morning hours (1:00am-3:00am), and consider additional patrols, to increase crime reductions. In light of the recent trend to liberalize alcohol access across British Columbia we demonstrated that targeted policing strategies can reduce alcohol-attributable crime. We also provide fine temporal and spatial scale information on the patterns of crime creating evidence-based information to support policing strategies.     

西藏高原汛期降水日数和强度的时空演变特征

利用西藏高原38个气象站自建站以来至2007年的逐日降水资料,分析了西藏高原汛期不同等级降水日数和降水强度的时空演变特征及其对旱涝的影响。结果表明：西藏降水日数和小雨日数呈现北增南减的趋势,中雨日数在雅鲁藏布江中下游、昌都地区东南部一线增加。1961-2007年总降水日数的减少主要体现在小雨日数下降和贡献率减少,而中雨的日数和贡献率增加;降水强度表现出一定的增加趋势,体现为小雨和大雨强度的增加。20世纪80年代前多小雨,80年代至90年代多中雨以上强度的降水,21世纪前7年多小雨,而大雨主要在90年代对降水量的贡献率较大。西藏高原降水有向不均衡、极端化发展的趋势,这对西藏高原旱涝灾害的发生具有重要的影响。     

Spatialization of the SNOWPACK snow model for the Canadian Arctic to assess Peary caribou winter grazing conditions

Abstract

Peary caribou is the northernmost designatable unit for caribou species, and its population has declined by about 70% over the last three generations. The Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada identified difficult grazing conditions through the snow cover as being the most significant factor contributing to this decline. This study focuses on a spatially explicit assessment tool using snow model simulations (Swiss SNOWPACK model driven in an off-line mode by spatialized meteorological forcing data generated by the Canadian Regional Climate Model) to characterize snow conditions for Peary caribou grazing in the Canadian Arctic. The life cycle of Peary caribou has been subdivided into three critical periods: summer foraging and fall breeding (July–October), winter foraging (November–March), and spring calving (April–June). Winter snow conditions are analyzed and snow simulations compared to Peary caribou island counts to identify a snow parameter that could potentially act as a proxy for grazing conditions and explain fluctuations in Peary caribou numbers. This analysis concludes that caribou counts are affected by simulated snow density values >300 kg m^?3. A software tool mapping possibly favorable and unfavorable grazing conditions based on snow is proposed at a regional scale across the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. Specific output examples are given to show the utility of the tool, mapping pixels with cumulative snow thickness above densities of 300 kg m^?3, where cumulative seasonal thicknesses >7000 cm are considered unfavorable.     

Fifty years of meteo-glaciological change in Toll Glacier,Bennett Island,De Long Islands,Siberian Arctic

Rapid environmental change has been observed in the De Long Islands, Siberian Arctic, where warming has extensively occurred over the area. To quantitatively evaluate glaciological changes since the 1980s, the climate, mass balance, and the equilibrium line altitude (ELA) of Toll Glacier on Bennett Island were analyzed. Air temperature has increased and solid precipitation has decreased since the 1960s, especially after 2000. The cumulative mass balance of Toll Glacier has had a negative trend since the 1960s and reached approximately −20 m water equivalent (w.e.) in 2000, which is one of the largest changes in the Arctic. These changes are much larger than those in the west Russian Arctic. The warming trend is also correlated with the sea ice distribution in the Siberian Arctic and may lead to feedback effects that cause further Arctic warming.     

Trends and Spatial Patterns of Drought Incidence in the Omo‐Ghibe River Basin,Ethiopia

The objective of this paper is to evaluate trends and spatial patterns of drought incidence across the Omo‐Ghibe River Basin using monthly rainfall data from eight stations for the period 1972–2007. It also aims to estimate the probability of drought episodes for a 100‐year period. Drought indices were generated using the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) computed at 3‐, 6‐, 12‐ and 24‐month time‐steps for three intensity classes: moderate, severe and extreme drought events. The Mann–Kendall's trend test and Sen's slope estimator were employed to detect temporal changes. The results show complex spatial patterns on the frequency and magnitude of drought events across the study area for all timescales and intensity classes. However, the total number of drought events for the three intensity classes for all timescales were larger in the southern lowlands, where there exists a serious water scarcity for the rain‐fed pastoral system, than in the northeastern part (around Wolaita Sodo area). In contrast to this, the longest and most extreme (SPI < ?4.0) drought events for all timescales were observed at Wolaita Sodo station. In a 100‐year period one could expect 57–69 drought events with 3 months' duration, 19–34 events with 6 months' duration, 9–16 events with 12 months' duration and 5–9 events with 24 months' duration. The SPI values show negative rainfall anomalies in the 1980s while positive anomalies have occurred in the 1990s and 2000s, which implies tendency towards decreasing drought events. The Mann–Kendall's trend test for the 12‐ and 24‐month timescales and for seasonal events also confirms this general trend.     

Rainfall regulates decomposition of buried cellulose in the Namib Desert

Because of the aridity of the Namib Sand Sea, it has long been assumed that decomposition of buried plant material was largely independent of rainfall. Losses were attributed to consumption by detritivores that forage year-round. Moisture-limited micro-organisms were reported to occur in low densities in Namib sands, supporting the assumption that rainfall was insignificant in regulating decomposition. Observations of abundant macrofungal fruiting from buried plant material and herbivore dung, following a 12 mm rain, suggested the importance of rain-induced decomposition had been underestimated. We used cellulose substrates to compare material loss during dry periods and following differing amounts of rain. Strips of cotton cloth and filter paper, buried at 10 cm depths at five disjunct locations, were sequentially removed over 10 months. A period of at least 170 days elapsed before rains, ranging from 4–46 mm, fell at all locations. Material loss during the dry period averaged 8·2% (range 0–16·7%), and was attributed to macrodetritivore consumption. In marked contrast, an average of 84·1% of the material (range 64·7–97·2%) was lost following rains greater than 9 mm. Wet substrates were heavily colonized by fungi, and termites and tenebrionid beetle larvae were observed feeding on fungus-colonized substrates. Stepwise regression analysis revealed that rainfall, rather than duration of burial, was the primary factor determining substrate loss in the Namib Sand Sea. Although rain events are infrequent and ensuing periods of moist soil are brief, substrate loss following rains is highly significant relative to that occurring in the absence of rain. In contrast to more mesic deserts, rainfall is an important trigger of decomposition in the Namib Sand Sea where soils are too dry to support significant decomposition, except when episodically moistened by rain.     

Contrasting climate change in the two polar regions

The two polar regions have experienced remarkably different climatic changes in recent decades. The Arctic has seen a marked reduction in sea-ice extent throughout the year, with a peak during the autumn. A new record minimum extent occurred in 2007, which was 40% below the long-term climatological mean. In contrast, the extent of Antarctic sea ice has increased, with the greatest growth being in the autumn. There has been a large-scale warming across much of the Arctic, with a resultant loss of permafrost and a reduction in snow cover. The bulk of the Antarctic has experienced little change in surface temperature over the last 50 years, although a slight cooling has been evident around the coast of East Antarctica since about 1980, and recent research has pointed to a warming across West Antarctica. The exception is the Antarctic Peninsula, where there has been a winter (summer) season warming on the western (eastern) side. Many of the different changes observed between the two polar regions can be attributed to topographic factors and land/sea distribution. The location of the Arctic Ocean at high latitude, with the consequently high level of solar radiation received in summer, allows the ice-albedo feedback mechanism to operate effectively. The Antarctic ozone hole has had a profound effect on the circulations of the high latitude ocean and atmosphere, isolating the continent and increasing the westerly winds over the Southern Ocean, especially during the summer and winter.     

Winter stemflow nutrient inputs into a southern New England broadleaved deciduous forest

Stemflow leaching from the above‐ground vegetative surfaces of broadleaved deciduous canopy trees has been well documented during the growing season. Winter stemflow leaching from the leafless crowns of deciduous trees is less well understood, especially in the context of global climate change. Boreal and northern temperate forests are forecast to have a lower incidence of snow events and an increased frequency of rain and mixed precipitation events. A change in the seasonal precipitation regime may be significant due to linkages among global change, stemflow leaching, and biogeochemical processes. The aim of this paper is to (1) demonstrate the extent of winter stemflow nutrient leaching from deciduous trees; (2) explore how winter stemflow leachate quantity may vary as a function of the type of precipitation event; and (3) quantify the extent to which an increase in the incidence of snow‐to‐rain events would enhance stemflow leaching. Measuring meteorological conditions, stemflow volumes, and stemflow chemistry over two successive winter seasons in New England demonstrated that winter stemflow drainage was significantly enriched compared to the incident bulk precipitation: 162 times greater for K+, 44 times greater for Ca2+, and 29 times greater for Mg2+. Snow‐to‐rain events leached considerably greater quantities of base cations from the deciduous trees than all other types of precipitation events. An increased frequency of snow‐to‐rain events from 13.8% to 25% of winter precipitation events would substantially increase mean stemflow nutrient inputs to the bases of forest trees during winter. Implications for significantly increased winter stemflow leachate inputs, corresponding to an increased incidence of snow‐to‐rain events, include a shift in the biogeographic range of species, delayed leaf emergence, and increased soil respiration.     

Decentralized and coordinate-free computation of critical points and surface networks in a discretized scalar field

This article provides a decentralized and coordinate-free algorithm, called decentralized gradient field (DGraF), to identify critical points (peaks, pits, and passes) and the topological structure of the surface network connecting those critical points. Algorithms that can operate in the network without centralized control and without coordinates are important in emerging resource-constrained spatial computing environments, in particular geosensor networks. Our approach accounts for the discrepancies between finite granularity sensor data and the underlying continuous field, ignored by previous work. Empirical evaluation shows that our DGraF algorithm can improve the accuracy of critical points identification when compared with the current state-of-the-art decentralized algorithm and matches the accuracy of a centralized algorithm for peaks and pits. The DGraF algorithm is efficient, requiring O(n) overall communication complexity, where n is the number of nodes in the geosensor network. Further, empirical investigations of our algorithm across a range of simulations demonstrate improved load balance of DGraF when compared with an existing decentralized algorithm. Our investigation highlights a number of important issues for future research on the detection of holes and the monitoring of dynamic events in a field.     

COVID-19期间国家关系交互网络时空分析研究

COVID-19疫情不断蔓延为国际政治、外交关系等带来深刻影响。目前基于复杂网络方法的国际关系研究较少考虑节点的空间属性,难以探索国际关系的动态演化模式及其空间分布特征。该文提出一种结合时间序列聚类与空间统计的国家关系交互网络演化模式探测方法。基于2020年1月-2021年3月的GDELT数据构建国家关系交互网络,基于节点的演化特征,应用K-means聚类算法将节点划分为6种类型,结合局部连接统计方法分析节点演化模式的空间分布特征。研究表明:面对疫情冲击,各国为控制疫情蔓延倾向于参与合作交互事件;国家关系交互网络中的不同时序演化模式总体按照节点的点度中心性强度由高到低分布;疫情防控期间网络中始终处于边缘地位的节点在空间分布上呈现聚集特征,而核心节点空间分布较分散。通过研究网络节点的时序演化模式及空间分布特征可为公共卫生危机事件期间国际关系与地缘政治研究提供新思路,对于危机事件期间制定外交政策与应对策略具有一定参考价值。     

博州不同级别降水及极端降水事件的时空变化

根据1961—2005年新疆博州（博尔塔拉蒙古自治州的简称,下同）4站逐日降水资料,用阈值检测方法计算出博州地区极端降雨（雪）的阈值,并用气候趋势系数、Kendall-τ秩次相关以及滑动t检验等分析了博州地区不同量级降水日数以及极端降水日数的变化特征。研究表明,博州地区极端降水阈值与年平均降水量的空间分布基本一致：山区大,盆地小,地区间差异极大。3—10月一日降水量≤0.2 mm的微量降雨日数大范围减少;年降水量增加的方式在不同子区域是不同的：①对于年平均降水量仅有100 mm左右的艾比湖一带而言,主要体现在中雨、小雪次数的增加上,其他量级的雨雪日数及强度增加趋势不显著,这种增量对干旱区而言很小,无法改变干旱区的本质。②博河上游地区夏半年主要体现在小雨、大雨次数的增加以及中雨强度的增加上,冬半年主要体现在小雪、大雪或极端降雪日数的增加以及大雪、暴雪强度的增加上。虽然博河上游地区大雨次数显著增加,但强度显著降低。这种增加方式导致博河上游地区冬季牧区易出现雪灾,夏季易出现洪灾。③博河中游地区主要体现在小雪、中雪、大雪（或极端降雪）、中雨频次以及小雨强度的增加上,而且一日降水量≤0.2 mm的微量降雨日数的减少趋势大于其他量级降雨总次数的增加趋势。降水日的这种变化方式在该区域气候显著偏暖的气候背景中,极易造成春夏阶段性极端干旱事件频发。