Groundwater vulnerability and risk mapping for the Basaltic aquifer of the Azraq basin of Jordan using GIS, Remote sensing and DRASTIC

Water consumption in Jordan already exceeds renewable freshwater resources by more than 20% and, after the year 2005, freshwater resources are likely to be fully utilised. Over 50% of supply derives from groundwater and this paper focuses on a small part of the northern Badia region of Jordan that is underlain by the Azraq groundwater basin where it has been estimated that annual abstraction stands at over 100% of the projected safe yield. While water supply is a crucial issue, there is also evidence to suggest that the quality of groundwater supplies is also under threat as a result of salinisation and an increase in the use of agrochemicals. Focusing on this area, this paper attempts to produce groundwater vulnerability and risk maps. These maps are designed to show areas of greatest potential for groundwater contamination on the basis of hydro-geological conditions and human impacts. All of the major geological and hydro-geological factors that affect and control groundwater movement into, through, and out of the study area were incorporated into the DRASTIC model. Parameters included; depth to groundwater, recharge, aquifer media, soil media, topography, and impact of the vadose zone. The hydraulic conductivity of the aquifer was not included in calculating the final DRASTIC index for potential contamination due to a lack of sufficient quantitative data. A Geographical Information System (GIS) was used to create a groundwater vulnerability map by overlaying the available hydro-geological data. The resulting vulnerability map was then integrated with a land use map as an additional parameter in the DRASTIC model to assess the potential risk of groundwater to pollution in the study area. The final DRASTIC model was tested using hydrochemical data from the aquifer. Around 84% of the study area was classified as being at moderate risk while the re mainder was classified as low risk. While the analysis of groundwater chemistry was not conclusive, it was encouraging to find that no well with high nitrate levels was found in the areas classified as being of low risk suggesting that the DRASTIC model for this area provided a conservative estimate of low risk areas. It is recognised that the approach adopted to produce the DRASTIC index was limited by the availability of data. However, in areas with limited secondary data, this index provides important objective information that could be used to inform local decision making.     

Comparative study of specific groundwater vulnerability of a karst aquifer in central Florida

The Floridan aquifer system (FAS) is known to be one of the most productive aquifer systems in the USA. With the FAS being a karst aquifer, it presents unique challenges to land use planners because of inherent vulnerabilities to contamination through direct connections between the aquifer and the surface. In this study a new Geographic Information Systems (GIS) -based index, the Karst Aquifer Vulnerability Index (KAVI), incorporates geologic layers used in intrinsic groundwater vulnerability models (GVMs) plus an epikarst layer specific to karst, with land use coverages to create a specific groundwater vulnerability model. The KAVI model was compared to another specific vulnerability model, the Susceptibility Index (SI). Tabulation of the percentage areas of vulnerability classes reveals major differences between the two models with SI suggesting greater vulnerability for the study area than KAVI. Validation of these two models found that KAVI vulnerability levels best reproduced spatially varying concentrations of nitrate in the aquifer. Sensitivity analysis, the application of a variation index and measuring the effective weights for each parameter included in KAVI confirmed the importance of closed depressions but also aquifer hydraulic conductivity. The inclusion of land use was justified; however, effective weight analysis determined its assigned weight was too high as used in the initial calculation of KAVI.     

鄱阳湖区洪灾风险与农户脆弱性分析

This paper quantitatively explores farmers' vulnerability to flood in the Poyang Lake Region (PLR) with the supports of GIS spatial functions. The analysis consists of three major steps,which is based on the spatial unit of township. Firstly,the spatial extent and charac-teristics of flood risk areas were determined using a digital elevation model (DEM) derived from the 1:50,000 topographic map. Secondly,for each of the township,six indices indicating the economic activities of local farmers were calculated. These indices are: rural population proportion,cultivated land proportion,GDP per unit area,employment proportion of primary industry,net rural income per capita and agricultural income proportion. These six indices were then normalized and used for later vulnerability assessment. Thirdly,the normalized indices (as GIS data layers) were overlaid with the flood risk areas to produce the risk coeffi-cient for each township and to calculate the overall vulnerability for each township. The analysis results show that in the PLR there are high flood risk areas where the farmers' livings are seriously influenced or threatened. About 55.56% of the total 180 townships in the flood risk areas have a high degree of flood vulnerability. The townships under flood risk are mainly distributed in the areas around the Poyang Lake and the areas along the "five rivers".     

Farmers&rsquo|vulnerability to flood risk: A case study in the Poyang Lake Region

This paper quantitatively explores farmers’ vulnerability to flood in the Poyang Lake Region (PLR) with the supports of GIS spatial functions. The analysis consists of three major steps, which is based on the spatial unit of township. Firstly, the spatial extent and charac-teristics of flood risk areas were determined using a digital elevation model (DEM) derived from the 1:50,000 topographic map. Secondly, for each of the township, six indices indicating the economic activities of local farmers were calculated. These indices are: rural population proportion, cultivated land proportion, GDP per unit area, employment proportion of primary industry, net rural income per capita and agricultural income proportion. These six indices were then normalized and used for later vulnerability assessment. Thirdly, the normalized indices (as GIS data layers) were overlaid with the flood risk areas to produce the risk coeffi-cient for each township and to calculate the overall vulnerability for each township. The analysis results show that in the PLR there are high flood risk areas where the farmers’ livings are seriously influenced or threatened. About 55.56% of the total 180 townships in the flood risk areas have a high degree of flood vulnerability. The townships under flood risk are mainly distributed in the areas around the Poyang Lake and the areas along the “five rivers”.     

Foreword to the special issue: climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability in the Arctic

The Arctic climate is changing, carrying wide-ranging implications for indigenous and non-indigenous inhabitants, businesses, industry and government across the circumpolar region. The latest scientific assessments indicate that change is happening faster than previously thought, and that the Arctic will continue to experience dramatic climate change in the future. This special edition of Polar Research brings together nine papers on climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability in the Arctic, providing important insights on the nature of the risks and opportunities posed by climate change in the circumpolar region, highlighting opportunities for policy response and providing insights on how to conduct effective climate change research with Arctic communities.     

The vulnerability evolution and simulation of social-ecological systems in a semi-arid area: A case study of Yulin City,China

Taking the semi-arid area of Yulin City as an example, this study improves the vulnerability assessment methods and techniques at the county scale using the VSD (Vulnerability Scoping Diagram) assessment framework, integrates the VSD framework and the SERV (Spatially Explicit Resilience-Vulnerability) model, and decomposes the system vulnerability into three dimensions, i.e., exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Firstly, with the full understanding of the background and exposure risk source of the research area, the vulnerability indexes were screened by the SERV model, and the index system was constructed to assess the characteristics of the local eco-environment. Secondly, with the aid of RS and GIS, this study measured the spatial differentiation and evolution of the social-ecological systems in Yulin City during 2000–2015 and explored intrinsic reasons for the spatial-temporal evolution of vulnerability. The results are as follows: (1) The spatial pattern of Yulin City’s SESs vulnerability is “high in northwest and southeast and low along the Great Wall”. Although the degree of system vulnerability decreased significantly during the study period and the system development trend improved, there is a sharp spatial difference between the system vulnerability and exposure risk. (2) The evolution of system vulnerability is influenced by the risk factors of exposure, and the regional vulnerability and the spatial heterogeneity of exposure risk are affected by the social sensitivity, economic adaptive capacity and other factors. Finally, according to the uncertainty of decision makers, the future scenarios of regional vulnerability are simulated under different decision risks by taking advantage of the OWA multi-criteria algorithm, and the vulnerability of the regional system under different development directions was predicted based on the decision makers' rational risk interval.     

Regional assessment of environmental vulnerability in the Tibetan Plateau: Development and application of a new method

Regional environmental evaluation often requires a large amount of spatial information. Remote sensing (RS) and geographic information systems (GIS) are capable of managing large amounts of spatially related datum, and providing the ability to integrate multiple layers and to derive additional information. A methodological reference framework, using RS, GIS, and AHP (the analytic hierarchy process), is developed for environmental vulnerability assessment. Using this proposed method, we carried out a case study in the Tibetan Plateau. An environmental vulnerability index (EVI) proposed incorporates 15 factors covering natural conditions, environmental issues, and human activities. According to the EVI values, the vulnerability was classified into five levels: slight (EVI<2.2), light (2.2EVI<2.7), moderate (2.7EVI<3.0), heavy (3.0EVI3.4), and extreme vulnerability (>3.4). The case study showed that the majority of the area in the Tibetan Plateau is ecologically lightly (light level; 22% of the total area), moderately (moderate level; 27%), and heavily (heavy level; 30%) vulnerable. Except for a clearly horizontal distribution, the environmental vulnerability increased clearly with increasing elevation (vertical distribution). The case study verified the usefulness and feasibility of the methods developed, for the results gained reflect the reality of the Tibetan environment closely. Further use in other regions should pay attention to what factors seem to be important in determining the local environmental vulnerability, and how is the impact of each factor on the complex environment.     

快速空间扩张下西安市边缘区社会脆弱性多尺度评估

社会脆弱性评估是解析社会脆弱性要素关系、量化社会脆弱性程度、识别脆弱空间单元或社会群体的重要途径,是实现社会脆弱性精准治理的重要依据。本文从外部扰动、内在结构、构成维度、尺度层级4个方面阐释了社会脆弱性概念内涵,并建立起社会脆弱性评估框架（SVAF）,明确了社会脆弱性评价流程、评价目标、评价要素和数据方法,提出从暴露度、敏感性和适应能力3个维度构建社会脆弱性评价指标体系。在此基础上,以西安城市边缘区为例,视快速空间扩张为城市边缘区社会系统的主要扰动因子,开展多尺度社会脆弱性评价,得出街道、社区和农户3个尺度上的社会脆弱性空间（类型）分异结果。街道尺度上,低社会脆弱性街道占主体（48%）,且多邻近市中心;社区尺度上,居住开发型社区社会脆弱性最高,教育功能型最低;农户尺度上,社会脆弱性以中等为主（52.7%）,高社会脆弱性农户（17.5%）少于低社会脆弱性农户（29.9%）。随着街道-社区-农户尺度的下降,社会脆弱性指数的低值化集中趋势愈发显著,在农户-社区尺度之间,社会脆弱性指数等级对应关系相对明显,而其他两个尺度间并不显著。本研究可在社会脆弱性评价流程、评价指标体系、数据方法组织以及多尺度评价等方面为社会脆弱性评估理论研究与实践应用提供有益的探索。     

区域土地利用变化对生态系统脆弱性影响评估——以广州市花都区为例

本文在分析生态系统脆弱性概念与评价方法基础上,以土地利用变化引起的生态系统服务价值改变为影响力指标,以社会经济发展程度表征社会经济适应能力指标,构建区域土地利用变化对生态系统脆弱性影响评价和和空间表达方法,将生态系统脆弱性研究拓展到人类(社会)—自然(生态、环境)耦合系统的综合分析与评价,以广州市花都区为例,从花都区、乡镇两个空间尺度上进行了评价。结果表明:(1)在1980～1990年、1990～2000年和2000～2005年三个时间段,耕地面积的变化对该区生态系统服务功能影响最为显著;(2)1990～2000年和2000～2005年间,研究区社会经济适应性指数保持为正,两期平均值分别为0.391和0.374;(3)从研究区1990～2000年和2000～2005年两期脆弱性空间分布来看,虽然适应能力的提高在一定程度上缓解了土地利用变化对生态系统的负向影响,但总体呈现脆弱趋势,且脆弱性严重的乡镇数在时间尺度上呈现增加趋势。     

Place ontologies and a new mobilities paradigm for understanding awareness of vulnerability to terrorism in American cities

There is increasing evidence that people interpret their risk from environmental hazards through places—such as urban neighborhoods. At the same time, heightened levels of mobility are theorized to be leading to a so-called “placeless society” and possibly nullifying theories of locality-based risk perception. The purpose of this study is to combine environmental risk-hazards scholarship with work in urban geography to explore the following question: is perception of vulnerability to terrorism influenced by place and mobility, and if it is, what is the relationship? Drawing on interviews with 93 householders in Boston, Massachusetts, I demonstrate that people perceive vulnerability via understanding the transportation environment as a place—not simply a conduit—and that these perceptions reflect larger societal structures, such as wealth and gender disparities, that combine with (im)mobility and human subjectivity to amplify or attenuate a person’s sense of vulnerability. These findings bring an understanding of subjective experience to the geography of transportation systems, which has not yet been theorized within the urban disaster literature.     

Using spatial analysis and Bayesian network to model the vulnerability and make insurance pricing of catastrophic risk

Vulnerability refers to the degree of an individual subject to the damage arising from a catastrophic disaster. It is affected by multiple indicators that include hazard intensity, environment, and individual characteristics. The traditional area aggregate approach does not differentiate the individuals exposed to the disaster. In this article, we propose a new solution of modeling vulnerability. Our strategy is to use spatial analysis and Bayesian network (BN) to model vulnerability and make insurance pricing in a spatially explicit manner. Spatial analysis is employed to preprocess the data, for example kernel density analysis (KDA) is employed to quantify the influence of geo-features on catastrophic risk and relate such influence to spatial distance. BN provides a consistent platform to integrate a variety of indicators including those extracted by spatial analysis techniques to model uncertainty of vulnerability. Our approach can differentiate attributes of different individuals at a finer scale, integrate quantitative indicators from multiple-sources, and evaluate the vulnerability even with missing data. In the pilot study case of seismic risk, our approach obtains a spatially located result of vulnerability and makes an insurance price at a finer scale for the insured buildings. The result obtained with our method is informative for decision-makers to make a spatially located planning of buildings and allocation of resources before, during, and after the disasters.     

黄土高原半干旱区微尺度乡村人居环境系统脆弱性测度及时空分异——以陕西省佳县为例

从人地系统脆弱性视角着眼,基于65个样本点,451份入户调查问卷,65份村庄专题问卷,运用逼近理想解的排序法等方法探索了佳县1980—2017年微尺度乡村人居环境系统的时空分异过程。结论表明:(1)乡村人居环境系统脆弱性均值已由0.66下降至0.45,空间差异度由3.99%大幅扩大至15.31%,呈现由空间重度脆弱的均衡状态分化至中低脆弱为主体,24.62%的村庄仍处于高脆弱状态的格局。(2)居住、自然、社会子系统脆弱性显著减轻,均值分别下降至0.38、0.42、0.47,居住子系统仅余1.54%的高脆弱村庄。支撑、人类系统脆弱性均值保持或上升至0.54以上的高位,高脆弱村庄比重均超过2/3。(3)居住、自然、社会子系统由高脆弱样本村全局覆盖演化至低脆弱样本村广泛分布,而人类系统呈现由低中脆弱样本村相间分布演化至高度脆弱样本村全局覆盖的时空格局。支撑系统空间格局动荡,低脆弱等级仅集中分布于交通干线沿线、行政中心驻地样本村。     

Soil morphological variations on the Taoyuan Terrace, Northwestern Taiwan: Roles of topography and groundwater

To understand whether soils on the same geomorphic surface have similar properties, this study examines the morphology of soils developed on the 30-kyr-old Taoyuan Terrace, Northwestern Taiwan. Relationships among soil morphology, variations in the groundwater table, and soil forming processes were established based on field investigations and previously published datasets. The soil series in the study area can be grouped into seven types, including three homogeneous groups, two mottled groups, one gley group, and one reworked group. Fifteen hand-core samples collected in the field and borehole data were used to understand spatial variations in soil morphology. The results indicate that soil morphology on the southern Taoyuan Terrace changes systematically from the fore-edge to the back-edge: from red/orange soils to yellow soils, then to mottled soils, and finally to gley soils. The borehole data indicate that the groundwater table is generally parallel to the ground surface but drops significantly near the terrace fore-edge. This pattern matches with the observed soil toposequence, indicating that the pedogenic processes in the study area are mainly controlled by groundwater distribution determined by topography. Although soils on the terrace fore-edge have developed under the well-drained conditions that favor lateritization, at least two distinct soil types (i.e., red and orange) can be observed there, reflecting different geomorphological settings in a paleo-fluvial landscape. This work suggests that geomorphological and hydrological conditions should be examined carefully before using soil morphology for correlating geomorphic surfaces.     

Responding to the coffee crisis: a pilot study of farmers' adaptations in Mexico, Guatemala and Honduras

This article explores the impacts of market shocks and institutional change on smallholder livelihoods, and the challenge of adaptation in Mexico, Guatemala and Honduras. The rapid decline in coffee prices since the dissolution of the International Coffee Agreement in 1989 has had widespread and profound impacts across coffee-producing regions. The data collected in the three case studies of this project confirm the severity of the impact, particularly in the Mexican and Guatemalan communities. They also illustrate the importance of the historical relationship between farmers and public institutions in defining farmers' perception of risk, their awareness of the nature of the changes they face, and thus the flexibility of their responses to present and future uncertainty. The project's findings indicate that the existence and development of local networks among farmers, service providers and information sources may be critical for facilitating adaptation, particularly in the context of economic liberalization and globalized agriculture.     

南方丘陵区的生态脆弱度评估--以衡阳盆地为例

本文将生态脆弱性分为潜在脆弱性与现实脆弱性。根据南方丘陵易侵蚀退化脆弱区的脆弱因子分析,选择高度、坡度、土壤可蚀性K值、降雨量、暴雨量、多雨期降雨比重和少雨期干旱指数为潜在生态脆弱度指标;选取森林覆盖率和坡耕地指数作为现实脆弱度评估的人为修正指标,计算现实生态脆弱度。计算结果显示,衡阳盆地大部分的潜在生态脆弱性为轻度脆弱,其中盆地中部的衡南县脆弱度最大,衡阳县次之;无论1984年还是2000年的现实生态脆弱度,均以衡南县最大,祁东县次之;各县2000年的现实脆弱度均比1984年有所下降,其中下降幅度最大的是衡阳县,下降幅度最小的是衡南县。     

Economic development in tropical Africa from a geographical perspective: a comparative study of African economies

Tropical Africa is often seen to have problem economies that are very much alike and suffer from the same development problems. This view is questioned in exploratory analyses of levels of wealth, spatial productivity, the structure of the economy and aspects of the openness of economies and the way they have changed between 1965 and 1995. The analyses reveal differences between economies in both degree and kind. Change to economies was not unidirectional so that they became more disparate and differentiated. The exploratory analyses were extended using factor analysis as a diagnostic tool on a 19-variable by 25 country data set for 1985, 1990 and 1995. This confirmed the findings of the exploratory analyses and revealed changes in the structure of the factors reflecting development in the period. The results are discussed in the context of the literature in a search for explanation and policy formulation.     

中外贸工农一体化经营地域模式比较研究

贸工农一体化经营在经济发达国家已有半个世纪的发展历程,近几年来在我国开始兴起并迅速发展。本文尝试从一体化经营起步和发展的背景入手,从农业专业化区域、产业链的空间配置、农产品和农业经营要素流通三方面分析贸工农一体化经营的空间组织形式,进而对发达国家和我国的贸工农一体化经营的地域模式进行比较分析。最后提出讨论农业专业化区域、生产的社会化和内部化、农产品加工运销体系,贸工农一体化的组织形式和利益分配机制     

中国资源型城市经济演化特征与影响因素——路径依赖、脆弱性和路径创造的作用

以中国116个资源型城市为分析对象,从路径依赖、脆弱性和路径创造三个方面分析资源型城市经济演化的特点与路径分异,引入计量模型考察其对资源型城市经济增长与转型的作用,并分析其影响因素。研究发现：① 资源型城市的路径依赖水平北方较高,北方和内陆的脆弱性整体更高,路径创造水平由沿海向内陆递减。黑、晋、陕、甘和云、贵、川等地资源型城市的脆弱性较高,路径创造水平较低。② 中国资源型城市的演化路径可以划分为趋向锁定、趋向解锁、随机变化三种类型。③ 路径依赖、脆弱性和路径创造在不同宏观经济环境下对资源型城市经济增长和转型的作用不同,在宏观经济高速扩张时期,脆弱性有利于增长,路径创造能力强的城市反而增速较慢;而进入经济新常态阶段,路径依赖和脆弱性对增长的阻碍作用显现。④ 路径依赖和路径创造水平深受人口规模、国有企业比例的影响,脆弱性水平主要和人口规模有关。采矿业比例会影响资源类产业的路径创造,而对外开放水平则影响非资源类产业的路径创造。北方、内陆和煤炭型城市更易于形成高路径依赖。⑤ 提高人口集聚规模,降低国有企业比例,是降低路径依赖、提高路径创造水平的关键,人口集聚和扩大对外开放则分别有利于脆弱性的下降和路径创造能力的提升,应针对不同区域、资源类型和演化路径的资源型城市,制定差异化和精准的政策措施。     

京津冀区域协同治理与国外大都市区比较研究

随着区域一体化发展不断成熟,良好的区域治理机制愈发重要。京津冀区域协同治理具有重要的战略意义,积累了良好的基础,也面临许多挑战。为了更好地认识京津冀区域协同治理模式的特征,提出优化建议支撑区域规划落实。论文立足比较研究的视角,以治理机制为核心,围绕参与主体、治理手段、协调机制3个维度建立起比较研究框架,概括总结了京津冀地区、德国柏林—勃兰登堡地区、日本东京首都圈、法国巴黎大都市区等首都所在区域的治理模式特征,并开展横向比较。结果表明：①多元主体参与是良好区域治理的基本特征,关键在于建立明晰的主体间权责关系;京津冀相比国外实践,虽主体多元,但权责关系有待进一步厘清;以设立承上启下的区域机构为契机,应加快梳理相关关系。②行政手段、市场手段与法律手段相辅相成,是保障区域治理效率的基础;京津冀相比之下更侧重行政手段,市场手段有限,法律手段相对薄弱;应优先增强立法建设,进而促使市场手段与行政手段相互平衡、良性互动。③多边协商机制是区域治理有序运行的保障;京津冀在决策中已有较好的协调机制,但矛盾仲裁与动态监管方面仍显不足;应加快健全整体协调机制,贯穿治理实践的各个环节。     

农业产业化地域模式初步研究——以江苏省为例

农业产业化地域模式为适应于不同农业地域主导产品优势、市场指向、农村经济发展水平与农民组织化程度的主要农业产业化模式。江苏省内农业与农村经济的区域差异显,对不同地区农业产业化地域模式的形成与选择有重要影响。苏南地区宜以加工企业带动型、专业市场辐射型、主导产品依托型为主;苏北地区宜以中介组织服务型、多元参与型为主,在大城市郊区和出口农产品基地区也要着力发展加工企业带动型模式。