Influence of rainfall and soil properties spatial aggregation on extreme flash flood response modelling: An evaluation based on the Sesia river basin,North Western Italy

High resolution radar rainfall fields and a distributed hydrologic model are used to evaluate the sensitivity of flood and flash flood simulations to spatial aggregation of rainfall and soil properties at catchment scales ranging from 75 to 983 km². Hydrologic modeling is based on a Hortonian infiltration model and a network-based representation of hillslope and channel flow. The investigation focuses on three extreme flood and flash flood events occurred on the Sesia river basin, North Western Italy, which are analysed by using four aggregation lengths ranging from 1 to 16 km. The influence of rainfall spatial aggregation is examined by using the flow distance as a spatial coordinate, hence emphasising the role of river network in the averaging of space–time rainfall. The effects of reduced and distorted rainfall spatial variability on peak discharge have been found particularly severe for the flash flood events, with peak errors up to 35% for rainfall aggregation of 16 km and at 983 km² catchment size. Effects are particularly remarkable when significant structured rainfall variability combines with relatively important infiltration volumes due to dry initial conditions, as this emphasises the non-linear character of the rainfall–runoff relationship. In general, these results confirm that the correct estimate of rainfall volume is not enough for the accurate reproduction of flash flood events characterised by large and structured rainfall spatial variability, even at catchment scales around 250 km². However, accurate rainfall volume estimation may suffice for less spatially variable flood events. Increasing the soil properties aggregation length exerts similar effects on peak discharge errors as increasing the rainfall aggregation length, for the cases considered here and after rescaling to preserve the rainfall volume. Moreover, peak discharge errors are roughly proportional to runoff volume errors, which indicates that the shape of the flood wave is influenced in a limited way by modifying the detail of the soil property spatial representation. Conversely, rainfall aggregation may exert a pronounced influence on the discharge peak by reshaping the spatial organisation of the runoff volumes and without a comparable impact on the runoff volumes.     

The impact of upland land management on flooding: results from an improved pasture hillslope

In response to growing concern about impacts of upland agricultural land management on flood risk, an intensely instrumented experimental catchment has been established at Pontbren, a sheep‐farmed headwater catchment of the River Severn, UK. Primary aims are to develop understanding of the processes governing flood generation and the associated impacts of land management practices, and to bridge the gap between process understanding and ability to predict effects on downstream flooding. To achieve this, the experiment is designed to operate at plot (～100 m²), hillslope (～0·1 km²) and small catchment scale (～10 km²). Hillslope‐scale data, from an under‐drained, agriculturally ‘improved’ pasture, show that drain flow is a dominant runoff process. However, depending on antecedent moisture conditions, overland flow may exceed drain flow rates and can be an important contributor to peak flow runoff at the hillslope‐scale. Flow, soil tension data and tracer tests confirm the importance of macropores and presence of perched water tables under ‘normal’ wet conditions. Comparisons of pasture runoff with that from within a 10 year‐old tree shelterbelt show significantly reduced overland flow due to the presence of trees and/or absence of sheep. Comparisons of soil hydraulic properties show significant increases in hydraulic conductivity and saturated moisture content of soil under trees compared to adjacent improved pasture. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The impact of different spatial land cover data sets on the outputs of a hydrological model - a modelling exercise in the Ucker catchment, North-East Germany

The spatial distribution of forests, meadows, arable land, water bodies and settlements in a catchment influences the spatial and temporal dynamics of evapotranspiration, surface runoff, soil moisture and ground water recharge. Four digital data sets from different sources were available for land cover distribution to be applied in a regional case study in the Ucker catchment with an area of about 2415 km². The first data set was obtained from the German digital topographic data set “Atkis” and the second one from the federal German biotope mapping procedure “Biotoptypenkartierung”. In addition, Corine land cover data and a land cover obtained from a supervised, multitemporal classification of three Landsat-TM5-scenes from the year 2000 were used in our study. These data sets differ in spatial resolution and in information content and this leads to different areal proportions of the main land cover classes forests, meadows, arable land, water bodies and settlements. This has to be considered as an uncertainty in the land cover data. In our case study, we analyzed how and to which extent this uncertainty influences the outputs of a hydrological catchment model such as evapotranspiration and discharge. For the time period 1996-2001, meteorological time series were obtained from four meteorological stations and five additional precipitation stations. Measured daily discharge rates were available from two gauges located in the catchment. In the different land cover data sets, the proportions of arable land ranged from 52.7% to 61.7% of the catchment area and for forests from 19.5% to 24.6%. These different proportions showed only minor impacts with small differences below ±10 mm y⁻¹ on the simulated annual rates of evapotranspiration and ground water recharge. In contrast, the simulated surface runoff rates showed a strong correlation to the amount of the settlement areas in the catchment. The highest proportion of settlements with 4.9% of the catchment area in comparison to the lowest proportion of 2.9% leads to an increase in the simulated surface runoff of 70%.     

Assessment of overland flow variation and blue water production in a farmed semi-arid water harvesting catchment

Upgrading agriculture in semi-arid areas and ensuring its sustainability require an optimal management of rainfall partition between blue and green waters in the farmed water harvesting catchment. The main objective of this study is to analyze the influence of heterogeneous land use on the spatial and temporal variation of rainfall partitioning and blue water production within a typical farmed catchment located in north-eastern Tunisia. The catchment has an area of 2.6 km² and comprises at its outlet a dam, which retains the runoff water in a reservoir. Overland flow and soil water balance components were monitored during two cropping seasons (2000/2001 and 2001/2002) on a network of eleven plots of 2 m² each with different land use and soil characteristics. The hydrological balances of both the catchment and reservoir have been monitored since 1994.Observed data showed a very large temporal and spatial variability of overland flow within the catchment reflecting the great importance of total rainfall as well as land use. During the 2001/2002 season the results showed a large variation of the number of observed runoff events, from 27 to 39, and of the annual overland flow depths, from 8 mm (under vineyard on calcaric cambisols) up to 43 mm (under shrubs-pasture on haplic regosols), between the plots. The annual runoff amounts were moderate; they always corresponded to less than 15% of the annual rainfall amount whatever the observation scale. It was also observed that changes in land use in years with similar rainfall could lead to significant differences in blue water flow. An attempt for predicting the overland flow by the general linear regression approach showed an r² of 31%, the predictors used are the class of soil infiltration capacity, the initial moisture saturation ratio of the soil surface layer and the total rainfall amounts.These experimental results indicate that the variation in land use in a semi-arid catchment is a main factor of variation in soil surface conditions and explain the major role played by the former on hydrological behavior of the upstream area and on rainfall partition between overland flow and infiltration. Therefore, to predict the water harvesting capacities in terms of blue water production of a farmed catchment in semi-arid areas it seems essential to consider precisely its land use and its temporal evolution related to management practices.     

Evaluation of storage–discharge relationships and recession analysis-based distributed hourly runoff simulation in large-scale,mountainous and snow-influenced catchment

ABSTRACT

Evaluation of a recession-based “top-down” model for distributed hourly runoff simulation in macroscale mountainous catchments is rare in the literature. We evaluated such a model for a 3090 km² boreal catchment and its internal sub-catchments. The main research question is how the model performs when parameters are either estimated from streamflow recession or obtained by calibration. The model reproduced observed streamflow hydrographs (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency up to 0.83) and flow duration curves. Transferability of parameters to the sub-catchments validates the performance of the model, and indicates an opportunity for prediction in ungauged sites. However, the cases of parameter estimation and calibration excluding the effects of runoff routing underestimate peak flows. The lower end of the recession and the minimum length of recession segments included are the main sources of uncertainty for parameter estimation. Despite the small number of calibrated parameters, the model is susceptible to parameter uncertainty and identifiability problems.

EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis; ASSOCIATE EDITOR A. Carsteanu     

The impact of climate change on groundwater recharge and runoff in a humid,equatorial catchment: sensitivity of projections to rainfall intensity

Abstract

Projected warming in equatorial Africa, accompanied by greater evaporation and more frequent heavy precipitation events, may have substantial but uncertain impacts on terrestrial hydrology. Quantitative analyses of climate change impacts on catchment hydrology require high-resolution (<50 km) climate data provided by regional climate models (RCMs). We apply validated precipitation and temperature data from the RCM PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies) to a semi-distributed soil moisture balance model (SMBM) in order to quantify the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge and runoff in a medium-sized catchment (2098 km²) in the humid tropics of southwestern Uganda. The SMBM explicitly accounts for changes in soil moisture, and partitions effective precipitation into groundwater recharge and runoff. Under the A2 emissions scenario (2070–2100), climate projections from PRECIS feature not only rises in catchment precipitation and modelled potential evapotranspiration by 14% and 53%, respectively, but also increases in rainfall intensity. We show that the common application of the historical rainfall distribution using delta factors to the SMBM grossly underestimates groundwater recharge (i.e. 55% decrease relative to the baseline period of 1961–1990). By transforming the rainfall distribution to account for changes in rainfall intensity, we project increases in recharge and runoff of 53% and 137%, respectively, relative to the baseline period.     

A simple rainfall–runoff model based on hydrological units applied to the Teba catchment (south‐east Spain)

A hydrological model (YWB, yearly water balance) has been developed to model the daily rainfall–runoff relationship of the 202 km² Teba river catchment, located in semi‐arid south‐eastern Spain. The period of available data (1976–1993) includes some very rainy years with intensive storms (responsible for flooding parts of the town of Malaga) and also some very dry years. The YWB model is in essence a simple tank model in which the catchment is subdivided into a limited number of meaningful hydrological units. Instead of generating per unit surface runoff resulting from infiltration excess, runoff has been made the result of storage excess. Actual evapotranspiration is obtained by means of curves, included in the software, representing the relationship between the ratio of actual to potential evapotranspiration as a function of soil moisture content for three soil texture classes. The total runoff generated is split between base flow and surface runoff according to a given baseflow index. The two components are routed separately and subsequently joined. A large number of sequential years can be processed, and the results of each year are summarized by a water balance table and a daily based rainfall runoff time series. An attempt has been made to restrict the amount of input data to the minimum. Interactive manual calibration is advocated in order to allow better incorporation of field evidence and the experience of the model user. Field observations allowed for an approximate calibration at the hydrological unit level. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Brixenbach research catchment: Quantification of runoff process proportions in a small Alpine catchment depending on soil moisture states and precipitation characteristics

The Brixenbach valley is a small Alpine torrent catchment (9.2 km², 820–1950 m a.s.l., 47.45°, 12.26°) in Tyrol, Austria. Intensive hydrological research in the catchment since more than 12 years, including a hydrogeological survey, pedological and land use mapping, measurements of precipitation, runoff, soil moisture and infiltration as well as the conduction of rainfall simulations, has contributed to understand the hydrological response of the catchment, its subcatchments and specific sites. The paper presents a synthesis of the research in form of runoff process maps for different soil moisture states and precipitation characteristics, derived with the aid of a newly developed Soil-hydrological model. These maps clearly visualize the differing runoff reaction of different subcatchments. The pasture dominated areas produce high surface flow rates during short precipitation events (1 h, 86 mm) with high rainfall intensity, whilst the forested areas often develop shallow subsurface flow. Dry preconditions lead to a slight reduction of surface flow, long rainfall events (24 h, 170 mm) to a dominance of deep subsurface flow and percolation.     

Controls on event runoff coefficients in the eastern Italian Alps

Analyses of event runoff coefficients provide essential insight on catchment response, particularly if a range of catchments and a range of events are compared by a single indicator. In this study we examine the effect of climate, geology, land use, flood types and initial soil moisture conditions on the distribution functions of the event runoff coefficients for a set of 14 mountainous catchments located in the eastern Italian Alps, ranging in size from 7.3 to 608.4 km². Runoff coefficients were computed from hourly precipitation, runoff data and estimates of snowmelt. A total of 535 events were analysed over the period 1989–2004. We classified each basin using a “permeability index” which was inferred from a geologic map and ranged from “low” to “high permeability”. A continuous soil moisture accounting model was applied to each catchment to classify ‘wet’ and ‘dry’ initial soil moisture conditions. The results indicate that the spatial distribution of runoff coefficients is highly correlated with mean annual precipitation, with the mean runoff coefficient increasing with mean annual precipitation. Geology, through the ‘permeability index’, is another important control on runoff coefficients for catchments with mean annual precipitation less than 1200 mm. Land use, as indexed by the SCS curve number, influences runoff coefficient distribution to a lesser degree. An analysis of the runoff coefficients by flood type indicates that runoff coefficients increase with event snowmelt. Results show that there exists an intermediate region of subsurface water storage capacity, as indexed by a flow–duration curve-based index, which maximises the impact of initial wetness conditions on the runoff coefficient. This means that the difference between runoff coefficients characterised by wet and dry initial conditions is negligible both for basins with very large storage capacity and for basins with small storage capacity. For basins with intermediate storage capacities, the impact of the initial wetness conditions may be relatively large.     

Water and salt balance modelling to predict the effects of land-use changes in forested catchments. 3. The large catchment model

This paper presents an application of a long-term, large catchment-scale, water balance model developed to predict the effects of forest clearing in the south-west of Western Australia. The conceptual model simulates the basic daily water balance fluxes in forested catchments before and after clearing. The large catchment is divided into a number of sub-catchments (1–5 km² in area), which are taken as the fundamental building blocks of the large catchment model. The responses of the individual subcatchments to rainfall and pan evaporation are conceptualized in terms of three inter-dependent subsurface stores A, B and F, which are considered to represent the moisture states of the subcatchments. Details of the subcatchment-scale water balance model have been presented earlier in Part 1 of this series of papers. The response of any subcatchment is a function of its local moisture state, as measured by the local values of the stores. The variations of the initial values of the stores among the subcatchments are described in the large catchment model through simple, linear equations involving a number of similarity indices representing topography, mean annual rainfall and level of forest clearing. The model is applied to the Conjurunup catchment, a medium-sized (39·6 km²) catchment in the south-west of Western Australia. The catchment has been heterogeneously (in space and time) cleared for bauxite mining and subsequently rehabilitated. For this application, the catchment is divided into 11 subcatchments. The model parameters are estimated by calibration, by comparing observed and predicted runoff values, over a 18 year period, for the large catchment and two of the subcatchments. Excellent fits are obtained.     

Upscaling of saturated conductivity for Hortonian runoff modelling

Stochastic and deterministic upscaling techniques are developed that upscale saturated conductivity at the support of 0.04 m² to representative actual infiltration (I_b) for support units (blocks) of 10¹–10⁴ m², as a function of steady state rainfall and runon to the block, under Hortonian runoff (infiltration excess overland flow). Parameters in the upscaling techniques represent the surface runoff flow pattern and the spatial probability distribution of saturated conductivity within the 10¹–10⁴ m² block. The stochastic upscaling technique represents the spatial process of infiltration and runoff using a simple process-imitating model, estimating I_b using Monte Carlo simulation. The deterministic upscaling technique aggregates these processes by a deterministic function relating rainfall and runon to I_b. The stochastic upscaling technique is shown to be capable to upscale saturated conductivity derived from ring infiltrometers to I_b values of plots (1 m²) corresponding to measured I_b values using rainfall simulators. It is shown that both upscaling techniques can be used to estimate I_b for each time step and each block in transient rainfall–runoff models, giving better estimates of cumulative runoff from a hillslope and a small catchment than model runs that do not use upscaling techniques.     

THE INFLUENCE OF TOPOGRAPHY ON TIME AND SPACE DISTRIBUTION OF SOIL SURFACE WATER CONTENT

The distribution of water content in time and space at the soil surface has been investigated on a small farmland catchment (1.3 km² ) from four field surveys corresponding to different moisture statuses. For each survey, about 400 samples were collected at the soil surface at a depth of 5 cm along ten axes parallel to the greatest slope. The relationship between the measurements and the topography has been analysed. The structure of the data is well explained by a topographic index referring to the downslope conditions and defined as the elevation difference between the sample point and the stream point corresponding to the outlet of the water pathway derived from the digital elevation model (DEM). This index can be considered as an hydraulic head, at least for saturated conditions. A threshold for this index allows two domains within the catchment to be distinguished; an upper domain where the water content is nearly constant and varies slowly, and a lower domain where moisture status increases and is highly variable. The spatial distribution of these two domains is well correlated to the spatial distribution of the soils. Thus, both topography and the spatial distribution of soil appear to control the spatial distribution of surface water content at the 1-km² scale. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Spatial scale effect on seasonal streamflows in permafrost catchments on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau

The scale issue is of central concern in hydrological processes to understand the potential upscaling or downscaling methodologies, and to develop models for scaling the dominant processes at different scales and in different environments. In this study, a typical permafrost watershed in the Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau was selected. Its hydrological processes were monitored for 4 years from 2004 to 2008, measuring the effects of freezing and thawing depth of active soil layers on runoff processes. To identify the nature and cause of variation in the runoff response in different size catchments, catchments ranging from 1·07 to 112 km² were identified in the watershed. The results indicated that the variation of runoff coefficients showed a ‘V’ shape with increasing catchment size during the spring and autumn seasons, when the active soil was subjected to thawing or freezing processes. A two‐stage method was proposed to create runoff scaling models to indicate the effects of scale on runoff processes. In summer, the scaling transition model followed an exponential function for mean daily discharge, whereas the scaling model for flood flow exhibited a linear function. In autumn, the runoff process transition across multiple scales followed an exponential function with air temperature as the driving factor. These scaling models demonstrate relatively high simulation efficiency and precision, and provide a practical way for upscaling or downscaling runoff processes in a medium‐size permafrost watershed. For permafrost catchments of this scale, the results show that the synergistic effect of scale and vegetation cover is an important driving factor in the runoff response. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Discriminating residual and colluvial soils using topographic analysis in a small,forested catchment in Japan

Soil moisture plays an important role in hydrology. Understanding factors (such as topography, vegetation, and meteorological conditions) that influence spatio‐temporal variability in soil moisture, and how this influence is manifested, is important for understanding hydrological processes. A number of distributed (quasi‐)physical hydrological models have been developed to investigate this subject. Previous studies have shown that the spatial differences in the distribution of soil types (residual and colluvial soils) dominantly reflect spatio‐temporal fluctuations in soil moisture and runoff. We present a methodology for assessing the spatial distribution of residual and colluvial soils, which differ with respect to their physical characteristics, in a 0·88 km² forested catchment with complex topography and a complex land‐use history. Our method is based on penetration resistance profile data; in this data set, each data point represents soil physical characteristics within an area of about 25 m². If the spatial distribution of soils under similar meteorological, geological, historical land use, and other conditions could be characterized on the basis of similarity in topographic features, then the spatial distribution of soil could be predicted based on relationships between various topographic indices (e.g. topographic index and local slope). We tested whether our model correctly assessed the reference data. The model's results were 90·5% correct for residual soils and 87·3% correct for colluvial soils. Further studies will quantify the relationships between topographic features of land covered by residual and colluvial soils and changes in spatio‐temporal variations in the catchment (e.g. vegetation and land use) as a function of geology or meteorology. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Interpretation of homogeneity in δ18O signatures of stream water in a nested sub-catchment system in north-east Scotland

The isotope hydrology of a set of nested sub-catchments in the north-east of Scotland has been studied to examine the mixing processes and residence times of water in the catchments. The measured δ¹⁸O in stream waters was found to be exceptionally uniform both temporally and spatially. Hydrochemical mixing analyses showed that groundwater contributes between 62 and 90% of the stream flow in all sub-catchments. Model analysis indicated that the δ¹⁸O in stream water is indicative of a highly mixed system in which near surface runoff appears to be mixed with groundwater, within the soil profile, before being released from the catchment. Small fluctuations in the stream water δ¹⁸O response are generated by a small proportion (<10%) of less-well mixed water in infiltration excess runoff during storm events. A comparative application of the model to a nearby catchment, which has a lower proportion of groundwater runoff, demonstrated contrasting behaviour, with significantly less mixing of waters occurring and a more distinct difference in the age of runoff generated by different flow paths. This highlighted that standard methods for characterization of mixing mechanisms are often insufficient and may not discriminate between systems that have retained quite distinct flow paths throughout catchment transit, and those which have been mixed at some stage. Model sensitivity analysis also indicated that the simulated mean residence time of water varies most strongly in response to different parameters compared with the δ¹⁸O response. This has implications for estimating water residence times from isotope data. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spatial prediction of temporal soil moisture dynamics using HYDRUS‐1D

This article investigates the soil moisture dynamics within two catchments (Stanley and Krui) in the Goulburn River in NSW during a 3‐year period (2005–2007) using the HYDRUS‐1D soil water model. Sensitivity analyses indicated that soil type, and leaf area index were the key parameters affecting model performance. The model was satisfactorily calibrated on the Stanley microcatchment sites with a single point rainfall record from this microcatchment for both surface 30 cm and full‐profile soil moisture measurements. Good correlations were obtained between observed and simulated soil water storage when calibrations for one site were applied to the other sites. We extended the predictions of soil moisture to a larger spatial scale using the calibrated soil and vegetation parameters to the sites in the Krui catchment where soil moisture measurement sites were up to 30 km distant from Stanley. Similarly good results show that it is possible to use a calibrated soil moisture model with measurements at a single site to extrapolate the soil moisture to other sites for a catchment with an area of up to 1000 km² given similar soils and vegetation and local rainfall data. Site predictions were effectively improved by our simple data assimilation method using only a few sample data collected from the site. This article demonstrates the potential usefulness of continuous time, point‐scale soil moisture data (typical of that measured by permanently installed TDR probes) and simulations for predicting the soil wetness status over a catchment of significant size (up to 1000 km²). Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sensitivity of runoff and soil erosion to climate change in two Mediterranean watersheds. Part I: model parameterization and evaluation

Climate change is expected to effect storm runoff and erosion processes in Mediterranean watersheds at multiple spatial scales. Models are typically applied to estimate these impacts; however, the scarcity of spatially distributed data for parameterization, calibration and validation often prevents application of these models, particularly for larger catchments. This report, the first part of a two‐part article, presents an application and evaluation of the MEFIDIS model for two Mediterranean meso‐scale watersheds (115 and 290 km²) in a data‐scarce environment. A multi‐scale assessment method was used that combines quantitative validation and qualitative evaluation, consisting of three steps: (1) calibration at the small (field) scale using results from rainfall simulation experiments; (2) calibration and validation for catchment‐scale results while changing catchment‐scale parameters only (channel roughness and a parameter controlling the distribution of saturated areas); and (3) qualitative evaluation of within‐watershed erosion processes using empirical estimates of sediment delivery ratio and gully location. The results indicate that calibrating MEFIDIS at the field scale can provide reasonable results for catchment runoff and sediment export and for within‐watershed erosion processes. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The role of overland flow and subsurface flow on the spatial distribution of soil moisture in the topsoil

Many investigations show relationships between topographical factors and the spatial distribution of soil moisture in catchments. However, few quantitative analyses have been carried out to elucidate the role of different hydrological processes in the spatial distribution of topsoil moisture in catchments. A spatially distributed rainfall—runoff model was used to investigate contributions of subsurface matric flow, macropore flow and surface runoff to the spatial distribution of soil moisture in a cultivated catchment. The model results show that lateral subsurface flow in the soil matrix or in macropores has a minor effect on the spatial distribution of soil moisture. Only when a perched groundwater table is maintained long enough, which is only possible if the subsurface is completely impermeable, may a spatial distribution in moisture content occur along the slope. Surface runoff, producing accumulations of soil moisture in flat flow paths of agricultural origin (field boundaries), was demonstrated to cause significant spatial variations in soil moisture within a short period after rainfall (<2 days). When significant amounts of surface runoff are produced, wetter moisture conditions will be generated at locations with larger upstream contributing areas. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A GIS‐based variable source area hydrology model

Effective control of nonpoint source pollution from contaminants transported by runoff requires information about the source areas of surface runoff. Variable source hydrology is widely recognized by hydrologists, yet few methods exist for identifying the saturated areas that generate most runoff in humid regions. The Soil Moisture Routing model is a daily water balance model that simulates the hydrology for watersheds with shallow sloping soils. The model combines elevation, soil, and land use data within the geographic information system GRASS, and predicts the spatial distribution of soil moisture, evapotranspiration, saturation‐excess overland flow (i.e., surface runoff), and interflow throughout a watershed. The model was applied to a 170 hectare watershed in the Catskills region of New York State and observed stream flow hydrographs and soil moisture measurements were compared to model predictions. Stream flow prediction during non‐winter periods generally agreed with measured flow resulting in an average r² of 0·73, a standard error of 0·01 m³/s, and an average Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency R² of 0·62. Soil moisture predictions showed trends similar to observations with errors on the order of the standard error of measurements. The model results were most accurate for non‐winter conditions. The model is currently used for making management decisions for reducing non‐point source pollution from manure spread fields in the Catskill watersheds which supply New York City's drinking water. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.