A modeling study of coastal inundation induced by storm surge,sea-level rise,and subsidence in the Gulf of Mexico

The northern coasts of the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) are highly vulnerable to the direct threats of climate change, such as hurricane-induced storm surge, and such risks are exacerbated by land subsidence and global sea-level rise. This paper presents an application of a coastal storm surge model to study the coastal inundation process induced by tide and storm surge, and its response to the effects of land subsidence and sea-level rise in the northern Gulf coast. The unstructured-grid finite-volume coastal ocean model was used to simulate tides and hurricane-induced storm surges in the GoM. Simulated distributions of co-amplitude and co-phase lines for semi-diurnal and diurnal tides are in good agreement with previous modeling studies. The storm surges induced by four historical hurricanes (Rita, Katrina, Ivan, and Dolly) were simulated and compared to observed water levels at National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration tide stations. Effects of coastal subsidence and future global sea-level rise on coastal inundation in the Louisiana coast were evaluated using a “change of inundation depth” parameter through sensitivity simulations that were based on a projected future subsidence scenario and 1-m global sea-level rise by the end of the century. Model results suggested that hurricane-induced storm surge height and coastal inundation could be exacerbated by future global sea-level rise and subsidence, and that responses of storm surge and coastal inundation to the effects of sea-level rise and subsidence are highly nonlinear and vary on temporal and spatial scales.     

A review of major storm impacts on coastal wetland elevations

Storms have long been recognized as agents of geomorphic change to coastal wetlands. A review of recent data on soil elevation dynamics before and after storms revealed that storms affected wetland elevations by storm surge, high winds, and freshwater flushing of the estuary (inferred). The data also indicate that measures of sediment deposition and erosion can often misrepresent the amount and even direction of elevation change because of storm influences on subsurface processes. Simultaneous influence on both surface and subsurface processe by storms means that soil elevation cannot always be accurately estimated from surface process data alone. Eight processes are identified as potentially influencing soil elevation: sediment deposition, sediment erosion, sediment compaction, soil shrinkage, root decomposition (following tree mortality from high winds), root growth (following flushing with freshwater, inferred), soil swelling, and lateral folding of the marsh root mat. Local wetland condition (e.g., marsh health, tide height, groundwater level) and the physical characteristics of the storm (e.g., angle of approach, proximity, amount of rain, wind speed, and storm surge height) were apparently important factors determining the storm's effect on soil elevation. Storm effect on elevation were both permanent (on an ecological time scale) and short-lived, but event short-term changes have potentially important ecological consequences. Shallow soil subsidence or expansion caused by a storm must be considered when calculating local rates of relative sea level rise and evaluating storm effects on wetland stability.     

Toward improved operational surge and inundation forecasts and coastal warnings

Coastal regions are vulnerable to storm surge and flooding due to tropical and extratropical storms. It is necessary to build robust resiliency of the coastal communities to these hazards. The main objectives of operational surge and inundation forecast and coastal warning systems are to protect life and to sustain economic prosperity. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the United States has initiated an integrated effort through pilot demonstration projects, and model-based ocean and coastal forecasting systems, to build improved operational warnings and forecasts capability for storm surge and inundation. This note describes the overall strategy and progress to date, with an emphasis on forecasting extratropical storm surge.     

Quantification of the Attenuation of Storm Surge Components by a Coastal Wetland of the US Mid Atlantic

Coastal wetlands are receiving increased consideration as natural defenses for coastal communities from storm surge. However, there are gaps in storm surge measurements collected in marsh areas during extreme events as well as understanding of storm surge processes. The present study evaluates the importance and variation of different processes (i.e., wave, current, and water level dynamics with respect of the marsh topography and vegetation characteristics) involved in a storm surge over a marsh, assesses how these processes contribute to storm surge attenuation, and quantifies the storm surge attenuation in field conditions. During the Fall of 2015, morphology and vegetation surveys were conducted along a marsh transect in a coastal marsh located at the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay, mainly composed of Spartina alterniflora and Spartina patens. Hydrodynamic surveys were conducted during two storm events. Collected data included wave characteristics, current velocity and direction, and water levels. Data analysis focused on the understanding of the cross-shore evolution of waves, currents and water level, and their influence on the overall storm surge attenuation. Results indicate that the marsh area, despite its short length, attenuates waves and reduces current velocity and water level. Tides have a dominant influence on current direction and velocity, but the presence of vegetation and the marsh morphology contribute to a strong reduction of current velocity over the marsh platform relative to the currents at the marsh front. Wave attenuation varies across the tide cycle which implies a link between wave attenuation and water level and, consequently, storm surge height. Storm surge reduction, here assessed through high water level (HWL) attenuation, is linked to wave attenuation across the front edge of the marsh; this positive trend highlights the reduction of water level height induced by wave setup reduction during wave propagation across the marsh front edge. Water level attenuation rates observed here have a greater range than the rates observed or modeled by other authors, and our results suggest that this is linked to the strong influence of waves in storm surge attenuation over coastal areas.     

地面沉降对渤海湾风暴潮灾害防治的影响研究

渤海湾沿海地区地面沉降严重、风暴潮灾害频发。本文以天津作为典型区域,对风暴潮潮位测定、风暴潮灾害和防风暴潮预案措施等方面开展研究,认为地面沉降对上述3方面均有的不同程度的影响,在风暴潮灾害防治中必须考虑地面沉降问题。     

Pre-landfall evacuee perception of the meteorological hazards associated with Hurricane Gustav

In this study, evacuees from the path of Hurricane Gustav were surveyed to determine which meteorological hazards most influenced their decision to leave. Surveys were conducted along two major evacuation routes on August 30 and 31, 2008, to collect time-sensitive data on individual evacuation decisions related to the meteorological hazards from Hurricane Gustav. The regions of New Orleans, Houma, and Lafayette were represented most frequently, as determined by zip code data collected from the surveys. Responses were evaluated first by meteorological hazard for the entire dataset and then by three-digit zip code region. Overall, storm surge was the most important meteorological variable, followed by the size of the storm, wind, rain, and tornadoes. When separated into three-digit zip code regions, analyses revealed evacuees from in and around New Orleans were driven to evacuate as a result of the perceived threat from storm surge and storm size; residents in the Houma, Louisiana region were motivated to leave due to the threat from storm surge; and Lafayette and the surrounding areas were most-concerned with the threats posed by hurricane-force winds. Given the forecast track and intensity, survey respondents understood the meteorological hazards from Gustav and were motivated to leave based on personal evaluations of risk associated with the storm.     

21世纪中叶天津沿海地区极端高水位趋势预测

据统计,天津沿海地区50年一遇的风暴潮极端增水水位为 4.092m,开展控沉工作后的地面下沉速率约为15mm/a,目前沿岸海挡顶面高程一般为 4.332m.参考孟加拉湾、伦敦、汉堡等沿海地区在2050年海平面上升(取较今高约0.2m的推测值)背景下的极端增水趋势预测(增加0.5m),推测天津沿海地区2050年的极端高水位将增加到 4.792m(4.092m 0.2m 0.5m),现有海挡顶面高程将下沉至 3.687m(以2007年为起算年份).2050年极端高水位将比届时的海挡顶面高1.105m,由此将加重风暴潮水漫溢致灾的危险.如果再考虑波浪叠加、河口效应、极端海面上升等不确定因素的影响,危险将更加严重.     

Implications of wetlands degradation for water resources management: Lessons from Nigeria

Nigeria is a country richly endowed with both coastal and inland wetlands, which altogether cover about 3% of the country's land surface. These wetlands are of ecological, economic, socio-cultural, scientific and recreational significance. Nevertheless, Nigeria's wetland resources are currently being threatened by certain anthropogenic and biogeophysical factors. Notable among such factors are population pressure, rapid rate of urbanization, mining, oil and industrial waste pollution, uncontrolled tilling for crop production, over-grazing, logging, unprecedented land reclamation, construction of dams, transportation routes and other physical infrastructure, marine and coastal erosion, subsidence, ocean water intrusion, invasion by alien floral and faunal species, sand storm, desertification, and droughts. The alarming rate at which the country's wetlands are vanishing obviously portends some dire consequences. In particular, wetlands destruction is affecting water supply and water resources management in various parts of the country. Wetlands perform some vitally important hydrological functions in the country. For instance, apart from being quite instrumental to flood protection, wetlands equally maintain stream flow during the dry season in the semi-arid region of northern Nigeria. Importantly, they also help in regulating surface water quality and volume, as well as in replenishing and sustaining groundwater. There is no gainsaying, therefore, that the degradation of wetland ecosystems in Nigeria increases the task of water resources management in the country. Thus, the country's wetland resources need to be properly identified and mapped. Moreover, the right legislation and policy framework has to be put in place and enforced to safeguard the remaining wetlands from the ongoing wanton destruction. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

应对海平面上升与地面沉降迭加引发的地质灾害与生态环境问题

海平面上升已引起各国政府和科技界的高度关注。预计未来30年,浙江沿海海平面将比2009年升高88~140 mm。海平面上升与浙江沿海平原地面沉降迭加将进一步恶化地质与生态系统,引发许多灾害问题,制约沿海区域经济社会的可持续发展。本文主要就如何应对海平面上升与地面沉降迭加引发的地质灾害链与生态环境问题进行了探讨,认为要从地球系统科学角度,重视对陆-海相互作用机制与生态环境效应的研究,着手考虑建立陆海(包括入海河流)统筹的海岸带地质与生态环境监测评价系统。     

On the accuracy of atmospheric forcing for extra-tropical storm surge prediction

The ability of the SMARA storm surge numerical prediction system to reproduce local effects in estuarine and coastal winds was recently improved by considering one-way coupling of the air–sea momentum exchange through the wave stress, and best forecasting practices for downscaling. The inclusion of long period atmospheric pressure forcing in tide and tide/surge calculations corrected a systematic error in the surge, produced by the South Atlantic Ocean quasi-stationary pressure patterns. The maximum forecast range for the storm surge at Buenos Aires provided by the real-time use of water level observations is approximately 12 h. The best available water level prediction is the 6-h forecast (nowcast) based on the closest water level observations. The 24-h forecast from the numerical models slightly improves this nowcast. Although the numerical forecast accuracy degrades after the first 48 h, the improvement to the full range observation-based prediction is maintained at the inner Río de la Plata area and extends to the first 3 days at the intermediate navigation channels.     

The impact of sea-level rise on the coast of Tianjin-Hebei,China

Bulletins of China’s National Sea Level show that the average rising rate of sea-levels in China is 3.3 mm/a over the past 40 years, with an obviously accelerated rising trend in the last decade. The rate of relative sea-level rise of the Yangtze River Delta reached >10 mm/a after considering the land subsidence, and Bohai Bay is even greater than 25 mm/a. The impact of the sea level rise to the coastal area will be greater in the coming years, so carrying out an assessment of this rising trend is urgent. This paper, taking the coastal area of Tianjin and Hebei as examples, comprehensively evaluates the impact of sea-level rise through multitemporal remote sensing shoreline interpretation, ground survey verification, elevation measurements for both seawall and coastal lowlands. The results show that the average elevation of the measured coastal areas of Tianjin and Hebei is about +4 m, and the total area of >100 km² is already below the present mean sea level. More than 270 km, ca. 31% of the total length of the seawall, cannot withstand a 1-in-100-year storm surge. Numerical simulations of the storm flooding on the west coast of Bohai Bay, for 1-in-50-years, 1-in-100-years, 1-in-200-years and 1-in-500-years, show that if there were no coastal dykes, the maximum flooding area would exceed 3000 km², 4000 km², 5300 km² and 7200 km², respectively. The rising sea has a direct and potential impact on the coastal lowlands of Tianjin and Hebei. Based on the latest development in international sea-level rise prediction research, this paper proposes 0.5 m, 1.0 m and 1.5 m as low, middle and high sea level rise scenarios by 2100 for the study area, and combines the land subsidence and other factors to the elevation of the existing seawall. Comprehensive evaluation results indicate that even in the case of a low scenario, the existing seawall will not be able to withstand a 1-in-100-years storm surge in 2030, and the potential flooding areas predicted by the model will become a reality in the near future. Therefore, the seawall design in the coastal areas of Tianjin and Hebei must consider the combined effects of land subsidence, sea level rise and the extreme storm surges caused by it.©2019 China Geology Editorial Office.     

Modelling a storm surge under future climate scenarios: case study of extratropical cyclone Gudrun (2005)

Weather Research and Forecasting atmosphere model and Finite Volume Community Ocean Model were for the first time used under the pseudo-climate simulation approach, to study the parameters of an extreme storm in the Baltic Sea area. We reconstructed the met-ocean conditions during the historical storm Gudrun (which caused a record-high +275 cm surge in Pärnu Bay on 9 January 2005) and simulated the future equivalent of Gudrun by modifying the background conditions using monthly mean value differences in sea surface temperature (SST), atmospheric air temperature and relative humidity from MIROC5 in accordance with the IPCC scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for 2050 and 2100. The simulated storm route and storm surge parameters were in good accordance with the observed ones. Despite expecting the continuation of recently observed intensification of cyclonic activity in winter months, our numerical simulations showed that intensity of the strongest storms and storm surges in the Baltic Sea might not increase by the end of twenty-first century. Unlike tropical cyclones, which derive their energy from the increasing SST, the extratropical cyclones (ETCs) harvest their primary energy from the thermal differences on the sides of the polar front, which may decrease if the Arctic warms up. For climatological generalizations on future ETCs, however, it is necessary to re-calculate a larger number of storms, including those with different tracks and in different thermal conditions.     

Present-day oxidative subsidence of organic soils and mitigation in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta,California, USA

Subsidence of organic soils in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta threatens sustainability of the California (USA) water supply system and agriculture. Land-surface elevation data were collected to assess present-day subsidence rates and evaluate rice as a land use for subsidence mitigation. To depict Delta-wide present-day rates of subsidence, the previously developed SUBCALC model was refined and calibrated using recent data for CO₂ emissions and land-surface elevation changes measured at extensometers. Land-surface elevation change data were evaluated relative to indirect estimates of subsidence and accretion using carbon and nitrogen flux data for rice cultivation. Extensometer and leveling data demonstrate seasonal variations in land-surface elevations associated with groundwater-level fluctuations and inelastic subsidence rates of 0.5–0.8 cm yr^–1. Calibration of the SUBCALC model indicated accuracy of ±0.10 cm yr^–1 where depth to groundwater, soil organic matter content and temperature are known. Regional estimates of subsidence range from <0.3 to >1.8 cm yr^–1. The primary uncertainty is the distribution of soil organic matter content which results in spatial averaging in the mapping of subsidence rates. Analysis of leveling and extensometer data in rice fields resulted in an estimated accretion rate of 0.02–0.8 cm yr^–1. These values generally agreed with indirect estimates based on carbon fluxes and nitrogen mineralization, thus preliminarily demonstrating that rice will stop or greatly reduce subsidence. Areas below elevations of –2 m are candidate areas for implementation of mitigation measures such as rice because there is active subsidence occurring at rates greater than 0.4 cm yr^–1.     

Managed Retreat of Saline Coastal Wetlands: Challenges and Opportunities Identified from the Hunter River Estuary,Australia

We analyse the potential impacts of sea-level rise on the management of saline coastal wetlands in the Hunter River estuary, NSW, Australia. We model two management options: leaving all floodgates open, facilitating retreat of mangrove and saltmarsh into low-lying coastal lands; and leaving floodgates closed. For both management options we modelled the potential extent of saline coastal wetland to 2100 under a low sea-level rise scenario (based on 5 % minima of SRES B1 emissions scenario) and a high sea-level rise scenario (based on 95 % maxima of SRES A1FI emissions scenario). In both instances we quantified the carbon burial benefits associated with those actions. Using a dynamic elevation model, which factored in the accretion and vertical elevation responses of mangrove and saltmarsh to rising sea levels, we projected the distribution of saline coastal wetlands, and estimated the volume of sediment and carbon burial across the estuary under each scenario. We found that the management of floodgates is the primary determinant of potential saline coastal wetland extent to 2100, with only 33 % of the potential wetland area remaining under the high sea-level rise scenario, with floodgates closed, and with a 127 % expansion of potential wetland extent with floodgates open and levees breached. Carbon burial was an additional benefit of accommodating landward retreat of wetlands, with an additional 280,000 tonnes of carbon buried under the high sea-level rise scenario with floodgates open (775,075 tonnes with floodgates open and 490,280 tonnes with floodgates closed). Nearly all of the Hunter Wetlands National Park, a Ramsar wetland, will be lost under the high sea-level rise scenario, while there is potential for expansion of the wetland area by 35 % under the low sea-level rise scenario, regardless of floodgate management. We recommend that National Parks, Reserves, Ramsar sites and other static conservation mechanisms employed to protect significant coastal wetlands must begin to employ dynamic buffers to accommodate sea-level rise change impacts, which will likely require land purchase or other agreements with private landholders. The costs of facilitating adaptation may be offset by carbon sequestration gains.     

Hurricane Katrina storm surge delineation: implications for future storm surge forecasts and warnings

The storm surge in coastal Mississippi caused by Hurricane Katrina was unprecedented in the region. The height and geographic extent of the storm surge came as a surprise to many and exceeded pre-impact surge scenarios based on SLOSH models that were the basis for emergency preparedness and local land use decision-making. This paper explores the spatial accuracy of three interpolated storm surge surfaces derived from post-event reconnaissance data by comparing the interpolation results to a specific SLOSH run. The findings are used to suggest improvements in the calibration of existing pre-event storm surge models such as SLOSH. Finally, the paper provides some suggestions on an optimal surge forecast map that could enhance the communication of storm surge risks to the public.     

Numerical simulation of storm surges in Lake Winnipeg

A high-resolution unstructured grid two-dimensional finite-element model was applied to simulate the storm surge associated with the October 2010 extratropical storm in Lake Winnipeg. The wind and pressure fields from two high-resolution weather forecast models were used to drive the hydrodynamic model. The model results were compared with the observed water levels at several stations during the storm event. The model-predicted storm surge in the range of 0.6–1.5 m is comparable with observations in the southern basin of Lake Winnipeg. Model results are further analyzed to assess the transport of water between north and south basins of Lake Winnipeg during the event. Computed water surface elevations at specific locations at the outlet of the rivers and embayments indicate that the model needs some improvements in terms of grid resolution in those areas.     

On the use of NOAA's storm surge model,SLOSH, in managing coastal hazards — the experience in Puerto Rico

A numerical-dynamic, tropical storm surge model, SLOSH (Sea, Land, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes), was originally developed for real-time forecasting of hurricane storm surges on continental shelves, across inland water bodies and along coastlines and for inland routing of water -either from the sea or from inland water bodies. The model is two-dimensional, covering water bodies and inundated terrain. In the present version available at the University of Puerto Rico a curvilinear, polar coordinate grid scheme is used. The grid cells are approximately 3.2 × 3.2 km in size.The model has been used in a revision of all coastal Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRM) for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, and in hurricane evacuation studies. The FIRM's, since they are based on the 100 year stillwater elevation, are also used by the state Planning Board for regulatory purposes. The hurricane evacuation studies are used by emergency planners and personnel to assign shelters, escape routes, and delimit coastal zones that need to be evacuated during a hurricane threat.Recently, the acquisition of data from hurricane Hugo has allowed the first comparison of model results and observations for Puerto Rico and the other islands.     

Contribution of Mangroves and Salt Marshes to Nature-Based Mitigation of Coastal Flood Risks in Major Deltas of the World

Nature-based solutions are rapidly gaining interest in the face of global change and increasing flood risks. While assessments of flood risk mitigation by coastal ecosystems are mainly restricted to local scales, our study assesses the contribution of salt marshes and mangroves to nature-based storm surge mitigation in 11 large deltas around the world. We present a relatively simple GIS model that, based on globally available input data, provides an estimation of the tidal wetland’s capacity of risk mitigation at a regional scale. It shows the high potential of nature-based solutions, as tidal wetlands, to provide storm surge mitigation to more than 80% of the flood-exposed land area for 4 of the 11 deltas and to more than 70% of the flood-exposed population for 3 deltas. The magnitude of the nature-based mitigation, estimated as the length of the storm surge pathway crossing through tidal wetlands, was found to be significantly correlated to the total wetland area within a delta. This highlights the importance of conserving extensive continuous tidal wetlands as a nature-based approach to mitigate flood risks. Our analysis further reveals that deltas with limited historical wetland reclamation and therefore large remaining wetlands, such as the Mississippi, the Niger, and part of the Ganges-Brahmaputra deltas, benefit from investing in the conservation of their vast wetlands, while deltas with extensive historical wetland reclamation, such as the Yangtze and Rhine deltas, may improve the sustainability of flood protection programs by combining existing hard engineering with new nature-based solutions through restoration of former wetlands.     

Three-Dimensional Modeling of Storm Surge and Inundation Including the Effects of Coastal Vegetation

Two-dimensional (2D) and three-dimensional (3D) hydrodynamic models are used to simulate the hurricane-induced storm surge and coastal inundation in regions with vegetation. Typically, 2D storm surge models use an enhanced Manning coefficient while 3D storm surge models use a roughness height to represent the effects of coastal vegetation on flow. This paper presents a 3D storm surge model which accurately resolves the effects of vegetation on the flow and turbulence. First, a vegetation-resolving 1DV Turbulent Kinetic Energy model (TKEM) is introduced and validated with laboratory data. This model is both robust enough to accurately model flows in complex canopies, while compact and efficient enough for incorporation into a 3D storm surge-wave modeling system: Curvilinear Hydrodynamics in 3D-Surface WAves Nearshore (CH3D-SWAN). Using the 3D vegetation-resolving model, three numerical experiments are conducted. In the first experiment, comparisons are made between the 2D Manning coefficient approach and the 3D vegetation-resolving approach for simple wind-driven flow. In a second experiment, 2D and 3D representations of vegetation produce similar inundations from the same hurricane forcing, but differences in momentum are found. In a final experiment, varying inundation between seemingly analogous 2D and 3D representations of vegetation are demonstrated, pointing to a significant scientific need for data within wetlands during storm surge events. This study shows that the complex flow structures within vegetation canopies can be accurately simulated using a vegetation-resolving 3D storm surge model, which can be used to assess the feasibility for future wetland restoration projects.     

Dynamic issues in the SE South America storm surge modeling

The ability of the SMARA storm surge numerical prediction system to reproduce local effects in estuarine and coastal winds was recently improved by considering one-way coupling of the air–sea momentum exchange through the wave stress, and best forecasting practices for downscaling. The inclusion of long period atmospheric pressure forcing in tide and tide/surge calculations corrected a systematic error in the surge, produced by the South Atlantic Ocean quasi-stationary pressure patterns. The maximum forecast range for the storm surge at Buenos Aires provided by the real-time use of water level observations is approximately 12 h. The best available water level prediction is the 6-h forecast (nowcast) based on the closest water level observations. The 24-h forecast from the numerical models slightly improves this nowcast. Although the numerical forecast accuracy degrades after the first 48 h, the improvement to the full range observation-based prediction is maintained at the inner Río de la Plata area and extends to the first 3 days at the intermediate navigation channels.